Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo)
12/13/18, 2:35 AM
BREAKING: It's a Jeurys Familia reunion in Flushing. Source confirms the Mets have signed the free-agent reliever, who spent the first six and a half years of his career with the team. Familia gives them a setup man in front of newly acquired closer Edwin Diaz
Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo)
12/13/18, 2:40 AM
It's a three-year deal for Jeurys Familia, per & #8294;& #8234;@jonmorosi& #8236;& #8297;. & #8294;& #8234;@JeffPassan& #8236;& #8297; broke the signing. With Familia, Diaz, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, the Mets now feel they have four dynamic arms at the back of their bullpen. They're still seeking lefty help to balance out that group.
Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo)
12/13/18, 3:09 AM
Jeurys Familia's deal with the Mets is for three years and $30 million. Again, that's pending a physical.
Thats the 2019 rankings for next years amateur draft. Its not surprising theres no Mets on it...
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0 Mets are on it including the recently traded Kelenic or Dunn. Link - ( New Window )
Thats the 2019 rankings for next years amateur draft. Its not surprising theres no Mets on it...
They are releasing their new top 100 prospects list in January.
Catcher should be number one priority and I think it is but after that a RH hitter that can play some OF and even some 3B would suit me fine as the gravy on this train. That can be M. Gonzalez, Puig, Castellanos, etc.
Castellanos is literally the worst defensive RF in baseball. -19 DRS and a 12.9 UZR. The Tigers are also asking for a lot in return for him. He belongs in the AL.
Dealing Kelenic sucked, but you have to give to get and he helped improve the team. If they finish the offseason strong and compete for the division it will still sting but worth it, just like Fulmer. If things go sideways 2 years from now, you can deal Diaz at the deadline and possibly get a prospect just as good.
Re: payroll, I'd be careful about perceiving the future to be a blank slate. In 2021 yes Cespedes is off the books but between only Cano ($20), JDG ($25m?), and Thor + Conforto each in their final arbitration years pre-FA you are looking at easily $80m between those 4 guys. If Diaz and Nimmo are still part of the core they are each in their 2nd arb year and probably take it over $100m. That's part of why I suspect we only have 1 more 3-4 year contract left in us this offseason, most likely for either Grandal or Pollock.
That would be an interesting move for Atl and I think be a very good calculated risk. Price of acquisition should be less than Goldschmidt and you guys certainly have the depth to do something similar.
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but there are talks between the Dodgers and Braves involving Puig.
That would be an interesting move for Atl and I think be a very good calculated risk. Price of acquisition should be less than Goldschmidt and you guys certainly have the depth to do something similar.
It would be a better addition, assuming the price is fair, than giving a huge deal to Pollock or Brantley. Puig is under control for two more seasons. The Braves have a great relationship with the Dodgers as their GM Anthopoulos came over from there. That's a very exciting lineup with
Acuna
Donaldson
Freeman
Puig
Albies
Camargo
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In comment 14219300 Jay on the Island said:
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but there are talks between the Dodgers and Braves involving Puig.
That would be an interesting move for Atl and I think be a very good calculated risk. Price of acquisition should be less than Goldschmidt and you guys certainly have the depth to do something similar.
It would be a better addition, assuming the price is fair, than giving a huge deal to Pollock or Brantley. Puig is under control for two more seasons. The Braves have a great relationship with the Dodgers as their GM Anthopoulos came over from there. That's a very exciting lineup with
Acuna
Donaldson
Freeman
Puig
Albies
Camargo
With Inciarte that OF would cover a lot of ground too.
First, I don't care about defense in a CO outfield spot similarly to 1B. The position should be heavily weighted towards offense. I heard the same thing about Bruce when he came here and I never remember him embarrassing himself outside of maybe of 1 or 2 times total. If he had hit last year and stayed healthy nobody would have complained at all. Castellanos made 3 errors in RF last year all season. That's one error every two months.
Second, for younger players coming off a breakout season, Steamer is never going to give a generous prediction. Steamer is conservative by nature anyways, but a younger player with not a lot of experience playing at a high level, is never going to get a high future prediction. However, sometimes 26 year olds, especially former first round picks, breakout. Steamer doesnt know their pedigree or who's who. Its a computer system based on the same sample without bias. That works against it. There's a difference between Castellanos having a big year at 26 and Ty Wiggington. I mean Nimmo was worth 4.5 fWAR last year. While he might take a small step back does anyone really think he's going to be worth about half that based on his Steamer projection? It's the same thing.
All the players mentioned have warts, but I like Castellanos as much M. Gonzalez, Pollock, and some of the names being thrown around.
First, I don't care about defense in a CO outfield spot similarly to 1B. The position should be heavily weighted towards offense. I heard the same thing about Bruce when he came here and I never remember him embarrassing himself outside of maybe of 1 or 2 times total. If he had hit last year and stayed healthy nobody would have complained at all. Castellanos made 3 errors in RF last year all season. That's one error every two months.
Second, for younger players coming off a breakout season, Steamer is never going to give a generous prediction. Steamer is conservative by nature anyways, but a younger player with not a lot of experience playing at a high level, is never going to get a high future prediction. However, sometimes 26 year olds, especially former first round picks, breakout. Steamer doesnt know their pedigree or who's who. Its a computer system based on the same sample without bias. That works against it. There's a difference between Castellanos having a big year at 26 and Ty Wiggington. I mean Nimmo was worth 4.5 fWAR last year. While he might take a small step back does anyone really think he's going to be worth about half that based on his Steamer projection? It's the same thing.
All the players mentioned have warts, but I like Castellanos as much M. Gonzalez, Pollock, and some of the names being thrown around.
I'm very surprised by this as you are usually reference sabermetrics in most of your projections. I put more value in DRS than errors for an OF. If you disagree that's fine but my preference would be to pass especially since Castellanos will cost a decent prospect to acquire.
Its not like 3B or the middle infield where your athleticism is constantly on display and you have to make accurate decisions at a lighting pace. CO? Meh.. With defensive positioning these days most of the guess work is taking out of it.
1) K rate and BB rate was same as his career averages
2) BABIP was .361, he's always posted high BABIP but that's 30 points above his career number. He's not posting a .361 BABIP again. 4 players in major league history have a .360+ BABIP
3) Awful defender, errors are a ridiculous way to judge an OF. Fully ignores the balls he doesn't get to. Even on a simplistic level a casual fan would realize this so it's a strange stance to have.
4) ISO was WORSE than the previous year
5) He's going to be making 11-12 million, that's big money for the Mets. Not some "lets roll the dice"
6) There is no advantage to Castellanos other than the years of commitment over Nelson Cruz (not that I want Cruz) but similarly awful in the OF, better hitter.
6) He costs prospects, Tigers ask is reportedly quite high. So not really sure the Marwin Gonzalez comp. One costs legit prospects.
Fangraphs
"All in all, this wont be the most exciting offseason for the Tigers. While Im an advocate of the team trading Nicholas Castellanos before he hits free agency. hes is also nearly a hundred points off his June 1st OPS, and the market for corner types who dont contribute defensively has been extremely weak.
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The Tigers have talked with the Mets about Castellanos, Im told. The asking price is high, among other words and phrases, according to multiple teams who have spoken with them.
Hard pass.
Can't fix a major problem like that by bringing more severe negative fielders - regardless of position.
Yeah well I'd be wary of that DRS score too. UZR liked Castellanos better so I'd in the least weigh them against each other. Especially for a younger guy basically playing OF for the bulk of the season for the first time in his career. There's a real chance he could actually improve but we simply don't have a long enough sample of him there to call him a -18 DRS guy. .
Can't fix a major problem like that by bringing more severe negative fielders - regardless of position.
Disagree. Please tell me the last time a significant corner outfielder hurt the Mets chances in anything? I seriously cant remember anything. People point to Duda in the WS because of his throw (I doubt he gets the out even if it was on target) but Duda wasn't even a bad defender here. He was absolutely fine for 1B standards.
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and even the less important positions factor into that equation significantly. It's not about errors, it's about outs given back to the other team in the form of hits or extra bases. Not caring about defense is exactly how the Mets have been among the worst teams in the league in runs given back to their opposition by a variety of metrics over the past 3-5 years. Since losing the world series mostly because of bad defense and untimely hitting, they are -166 in DRS (2nd worst in baseball 2016-2018).
Can't fix a major problem like that by bringing more severe negative fielders - regardless of position.
Disagree. Please tell me the last time a significant corner outfielder hurt the Mets chances in anything? I seriously cant remember anything. People point to Duda in the WS because of his throw (I doubt he gets the out even if it was on target) but Duda wasn't even a bad defender here. He was absolutely fine for 1B standards.
You can disagree all you want, your opinion flies in the face of the facts. You cost your team runs by not getting to balls. I'm not going down this rabbit hole with you but it's a very strange stance. Every ball that falls in is a potential run, how could you even argue otherwise? Why don't teams just stick poor fielders in the corners all the time? You are on an island for Castellanos. Lets hear this price you deem fair (remember he's taking up roughly half of the rumored 25ish they have remaining).
Ill take Puig all day long.
" the market for corner types who dont contribute defensively has been extremely weak."
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is "the guy" if you're looking at a Castellanos type move. Easily
Ill take Puig all day long.
Puig comes with his own baggage but he can fake it in CF at times and I think he's the type that plays his ass off in a walk year. What that says about retaining him? Who knows. But I think he puts up a big time season. The Mets also have something of a vanilla roster. A little spice might be good for them.
That's not what I said at all Dan. You guys laid out his DRS and UZR last year. I simply expanded the conversation. Like Bruce, everybody thought he was a butcher but with defensive positioning these days, offense is most important in a corner OF spot. If you want to talk about Nimmo in CF, well thats another conversation but in terms of Castellanos playing RF (and likely mixing in and out when Cespedes returns) I don't see a huge issues. The only reason I am pointing out errors is to show whether or not the guy was a three ring cirrus out there or not. That doesnt appear to be the case.
" the market for corner types who dont contribute defensively has been extremely weak."
Sounds like his price tag is still pretty high though. Like I said, most of the players have warts. Im not trying to change the conversation and say he's a good defender or something. Just trying to make an argument for adding his bat. I think he was the best in baseball last year in hitting lefties. Im ok with a few options there though. Still think we should resolve catcher first.
Mets overall DRS = -166 (2nd worst in baseball)
Mets overall UZR = -33 (7th worst in baseball)
Overall team run differential = -105
The reality is they have not had enough POSITIVE defenders in the last several years - Granderson in '15 and '16 made a ton of good catches and I believe got GG votes, Lagares is obviously beyond good when he plays. But that list is far too short. Average fielders may not do much damage but they don't help you either. To be good on defense you need good defenders, not average ones. And bad defenders are obviously very harmful.
Russell Martin through 4 years has been worth his contract by fWAR. Granted year 5 will be a loss but 1. He's turning 36 2. Would anyone here not take 3 years of Grandal being an above average regular with year 4 being a "well his contract expires after the year, we need to replace him"? I would.
Mets overall DRS = -166 (2nd worst in baseball)
Mets overall UZR = -33 (7th worst in baseball)
Overall team run differential = -105
The reality is they have not had enough POSITIVE defenders in the last several years - Granderson in '15 and '16 made a ton of good catches and I believe got GG votes, Lagares is obviously beyond good when he plays. But that list is far too short. Average fielders may not do much damage but they don't help you either. To be good on defense you need good defenders, not average ones. And bad defenders are obviously very harmful.
I have no idea what you're trying to do by pooling all defensive metrics together and bringing in seasons where we had complete wipeouts in injuries and were playing guys like 38 year old Bautista in the OF. I agree we need to get better defensively, especially in the middle infield and at catcher. Third base was a disaster before Frazier stepped in last year. I certainly wouldn't want a butcher in CF (although I think Conforto and Nimmo can play there passably). Im simply stating that at the CO positions and 1B the positions need to be weighted towards offense. It is not acceptable to have league average offense at those positions. SS? Absolutely fine. Some people understand this. Some people don't I guess.
It is clearly because of money and they should just say that instead of offering up other reasons or letting people speculate.
Russell Martin through 4 years has been worth his contract by fWAR. Granted year 5 will be a loss but 1. He's turning 36 2. Would anyone here not take 3 years of Grandal being an above average regular with year 4 being a "well his contract expires after the year, we need to replace him"? I would.
At this point, just sign him. The Realmuto rumors have made me sick.
Thats a real solid offseason and it seems possible at this point IMO.
It's not often you have the chance to add a player like this without leveraging the farm.
Shit, a 24 year old closer cost 2 of the Mets top 5 prospects.
that is the plight of the Mets fan. There is no reasonable rational argument that Harper or Machado should not be realistic for the Mets, but here we are with many in the fan base automatically accepting that (not that we have any choice unless we jump ship like Arc did).
If you told me going in I couldnt have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.
Russell Martin through 4 years has been worth his contract by fWAR. Granted year 5 will be a loss but 1. He's turning 36 2. Would anyone here not take 3 years of Grandal being an above average regular with year 4 being a "well his contract expires after the year, we need to replace him"? I would.
My concern with Grandal isn't so much that he ages poorly but rather changes teams poorly and the uncertainty/volatility of framing metrics since that's where a ton of his value is built into. 1 observation Pitch framing metrics are highly volatile and 1 suggestion I've seen is it falls off dramatically after a certain age (like Maldonado, Lucroy, and Cervelli) but another observation is some of those guys stats were just better when the pitching staffs they caught were better.
If you told me going in I couldnt have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.
Diaz and Harper/Machado should have absolutely ZERO to do with each other. Cano obviously does, but I'd be fine with Cano at 1B, Machado at 3B, Rosario at SS and McNeil at 2B.
Diaz cost Kelenic and Dunn, not $$$.
I think Cano and Diaz were almost separate transactions. At least they should be thought of that way.
Cano and $20M for Bruce and Swarzak
Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn.
This is the NL, theres no DH. Ill pass on bringing in another butcher.
Until he declines and there is evidence of that nope. Sorry. He got tested, was clean, served a 3 month suspension, came back and never skipped a beat.
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Because of the Cano addition I dont think Machado should be a realistic want anymore. Starting the season with Frazier at 3B with McNeil hopefully looking to take over or at least platoon with him is one thing, but Machado completely boxes either him or Rosario out at this point. Harper, of course, I would still like but considering the suitors it was always a long shot even if money was limitless.
If you told me going in I couldnt have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.
Diaz and Harper/Machado should have absolutely ZERO to do with each other. Cano obviously does, but I'd be fine with Cano at 1B, Machado at 3B, Rosario at SS and McNeil at 2B.
Diaz cost Kelenic and Dunn, not $$$.
I think Cano and Diaz were almost separate transactions. At least they should be thought of that way.
Cano and $20M for Bruce and Swarzak
Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn.
Huh? No idea what you are referring to here. I was saying the Cano addition makes Machado less of a need and would block a player. BVW has already said Alonso is the opening day starter. So either way somebody is getting screwed. Separately, I was commenting an offseason that brought in 6 quality players. I think that would have been a good offseason.
Hey, he's still a "hall of famer" for the remaining 1.5 years of his likely usefulness.
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In comment 14219429 ZGiants98 said:
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Because of the Cano addition I dont think Machado should be a realistic want anymore. Starting the season with Frazier at 3B with McNeil hopefully looking to take over or at least platoon with him is one thing, but Machado completely boxes either him or Rosario out at this point. Harper, of course, I would still like but considering the suitors it was always a long shot even if money was limitless.
If you told me going in I couldnt have Machado or Harper but I could have three relievers (one the best closer in baseball last year, another a top setup option) , the best FA catcher, and two more additional bats coming off good seasons, one a Hall of Famer... I would have definitely signed up for that.
Diaz and Harper/Machado should have absolutely ZERO to do with each other. Cano obviously does, but I'd be fine with Cano at 1B, Machado at 3B, Rosario at SS and McNeil at 2B.
Diaz cost Kelenic and Dunn, not $$$.
I think Cano and Diaz were almost separate transactions. At least they should be thought of that way.
Cano and $20M for Bruce and Swarzak
Diaz for Kelenic and Dunn.
Huh? No idea what you are referring to here. I was saying the Cano addition makes Machado less of a need and would block a player. BVW has already said Alonso is the opening day starter. So either way somebody is getting screwed. Separately, I was commenting an offseason that brought in 6 quality players. I think that would have been a good offseason.
I was replying to this comment where besides the fact it hasn't happened, you seemed to lump in Diaz in some way to pursuing Machado or Harper.
The reason I replied to this is the "best closer in baseball last year" didn't cost $$$ he cost prospects, and should not be part of a "we can't sign Harper or Machado, but instead..." discussion.
Second, they only added two relievers (so far) and only one cost $$$ and it was not considered a lot of money.
They have not signed any free agent catchers and no additional bats other than the bloated 36-year old Cano's contract.
As I've said, the Mets are better today than they were at season's end, but sometimes you go too far.