The Giants are currently 500-1 to win the Super Bowl, is it worth a bet? I say yes! But do I have to travel to Vegas to place my bet or is there an online site that is legal and legit? I haven't really been following the whole online betting scene and what's kosher and what isn't these days.
But when you think about what it would take for the Giants to win the Super Bowl, it's not such an impossibility that it warrants 500-1 odds. I ran some numbers based on what I consider the likelihood of various outcomes (don't ask!) and according to my calculations the odds should be more like 80-1 than 500-1.
For $10 or $20, I think it's a good bet.
The Giants came out with a mean of 6.7 wins and a 1.4% chance of being the 6th seed.
At this point, while very cool and very interesting that we even have a shot, the likelihood that this team actually has all the pieces fall just right seemed to have ended in Philly..
On a hundred dollar bet...
On a hundred dollar bet...
My advise put 20 on it and have some fun. People spend a whole lot more than that for entertainment purposes every week.
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Is shit odds. You can get 2500/1 on the Giants right now.
Where?
Try mybookie.com or bovada.
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In comment 14216807 WillVAB said:
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Is shit odds. You can get 2500/1 on the Giants right now.
Where?
Try mybookie.com or bovada.
Had the Giants won the Philly game, the odds would be different. That they lost that game (and the resulting longshot of even making the playoffs) is already baked into the odds.
Ivan15 : 8:50 am : link : reply
It is a challenge for a CPA.
a new CPA.....
The Giants by even the most generous mathematical models have less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs. Then you have to factor in they would be t he lowest seeded playoff team, going on the road Even if you were to take that 2% chance and then spread the odds across the other 11 playoff teams, the true odds should be around 1000-1.
The best time to take the Vegas odds is prior to the start of the season
I created my own mathematical model based on my subjective opinion on their odds of winning specific games (rather than just assuming a 50-50 chance. And by my model they are roughly 20-1 to make the playoffs and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. And that's my conservative model. My more optimistic model puts them at 60-1.
First let's start with the odds of the Giants going 8-8. They are 2.5 point favorites this weekend at home, then a road game vs Indy, and another home game against a Cowboys team that already clinched. They could conceivably be favorites in each of those games. To keep the math simple, let's say there is a 20% chance of the Giants winning all three of their remaining games.
So now what are the odds of that 8-8 record qualifying for a playoff spot? Somebody posted a couple days ago the combination of wins and losses by other teams and it didn't seem so unreasonable, but likely less than 50%. So let's say there is a 25% chance of that happening.
So combining the two above probabilities placing the Giants chances of making the playoffs at 5%. Or roughly 20-1 if you convert it to odds. And what are the odds of winning the Super Bowl if the Giants make the playoffs? Well, for one, they would be entering as perhaps the hottest team in football if that happened. So I like their chances well enough at that point despite their road warrior status. It would still be an uphill battle, I'm not saying the odds end at 20-1, but if their odds of winning the Super Bowl became 5-1 once they got into the playoffs, that would mean their current odds are 100-1 (inclusive of both).
And 100-1 is better than 285-1.
Here - ( New Window )
Giants odds - ( New Window )
That alone is a 50-1 translation.
Most have them at 1.5% or lower.
That alone is a 50-1 translation.
Most have them at 1.5% or lower.
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The Giants by even the most generous mathematical models have less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs. Then you have to factor in they would be t he lowest seeded playoff team, going on the road Even if you were to take that 2% chance and then spread the odds across the other 11 playoff teams, the true odds should be around 1000-1.
I created my own mathematical model based on my subjective opinion on their odds of winning specific games (rather than just assuming a 50-50 chance. And by my model they are roughly 20-1 to make the playoffs and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. And that's my conservative model. My more optimistic model puts them at 60-1.
First let's start with the odds of the Giants going 8-8. They are 2.5 point favorites this weekend at home, then a road game vs Indy, and another home game against a Cowboys team that already clinched. They could conceivably be favorites in each of those games. To keep the math simple, let's say there is a 20% chance of the Giants winning all three of their remaining games.
So now what are the odds of that 8-8 record qualifying for a playoff spot? Somebody posted a couple days ago the combination of wins and losses by other teams and it didn't seem so unreasonable, but likely less than 50%. So let's say there is a 25% chance of that happening.
So combining the two above probabilities placing the Giants chances of making the playoffs at 5%. Or roughly 20-1 if you convert it to odds. And what are the odds of winning the Super Bowl if the Giants make the playoffs? Well, for one, they would be entering as perhaps the hottest team in football if that happened. So I like their chances well enough at that point despite their road warrior status. It would still be an uphill battle, I'm not saying the odds end at 20-1, but if their odds of winning the Super Bowl became 5-1 once they got into the playoffs, that would mean their current odds are 100-1 (inclusive of both).
And 100-1 is better than 285-1.
No way Giants will be favored in Indy. Even if you want to claim the Giants win this week and head into the matchup winning 5 of 6, Indy's on a roll themselves having won 6 of 7 with a winnable game this weekend hosting the Cowboys. Even marking that game a toss-up is being quite favorable to the Giants and would still require them to be quite heavy favorites in both the other games to achieve your 20% of winning out (better than 60-40 for both).
And you might want to review all the other stuff that's required for the Giants to make the postseason. No chance in hell that there's a 25% of it happening. For starters, Vikes need to lose out least 2 and they play Miami, @Det, CHI (likely clinched by then). Vikes should be favored or at worst a push in all those games.
You should care what models predict to understand if you have favorable odds or not. I don't want to sound harsh, but thinking you've done a model that's adequate and actually doing a model that is accurate are two different things.
The Giants not only have to win their final three games, but there are very few permutations by the other teams that allow them into the playoffs. You said it might be a 25% chance of that happening, but the math says otherwise. Out of all the possible loss-win combinations needed for the Giants to make the playoffs (apart from their 3 wins), that liklihood is less than 2%. A far cry from 25%.
I know it is being a nit, but if you are actually going to try and use a model instead of just throwing down the money on an ill-advised bet, you'd basically be better off not using any modcel than using the one you've created.