NFT: Yanks talk 12-14

were 1st, so here was my thread starter:

I started this because I am just amazed that there is no talk about DRob returning to the Yanks. Miller, Ottavino are the main objects according to reporters. Even Britton is getting more ink than Robertson (it seems). Most speculation is Robertson to the Red Sox, basically to replace Kelly.

Did Cash see something at the end of last year in Robertson who had a couple shaky outings that he thinks DRob is about to fall off the cliff? Or is it the backlash from the postseason bonus payouts ( which seems to be the main cause speculated by the press)? Could be that Cash feels Green is ready to take that roll at about 1/20 the cost and about 8 years younger. Perhaps Tarpley, too.

You would think that they will wait on Machado and get the relievers 1st. They may wait to see the market on Machado and decide if it is worth it. Something about the lack of connection to Harper makes me feel they have no interest despite what Boras says.

So:
Who will be the interim IF - (SS or 2B)?

Who will the BP arms be?

Do they go for Machado (I think they will)?

Do they go for Kluber later when the market slows down and the Indians get a bit anxious?

I'd rather go with Voit and Bird and keep our assets...

Find a starting pitcher

In comment 14218263 Chip said:

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Find a starting pitcher

Care to expound on that thought? The two are mutually independent.

They have 5 starters, but CC is really 1/2 starter IMV.

Why no to Machado who is almost an ARod clone?

dominant Robertson is he got to the point last year where he was battiling himself out there a bunch making himself have to overwork. He always was a guy that puts guys on and gets out of jams. I think if he is losing it, it will be a verh hard crash. My guess is the yanks wouldnt go near the years he wants.

Britton talk is stronger cause they need a lefty and someone to close some portions of the year as we have seen Chapman gets worn down or out of sync offten. Miller/Britton would give the yanks a B Closer which they need.

...is that, while the Yanks are not yet finished dealing, they will not pay for either Harper or Machado.

Owner wants to keep that money, and why not? He's got a playoff team right now that will keep the fannies in the seats.

And he will bank the money.

Ottavino
Miller
D-Rob
Britton
Kimbrel
Kevin Herrera
Justin Wilson
Soria

Give me a lefty and righty from that group.

It's felt unlikely, and I believe he's probably one of the less likely names on the list for NYY,but I'd really love to have Britton back. I'm a huge fan of the GB profile and I think he's better than his 2018 self. Keeps the ball in the ballpark. Stuff-wise, a nice complement to Chap/Betances.

the rotation is "pretty set" at all.
I still think they make a move to a legit ace.
No way Cashman doesn't see that the Yanks still don't have one.

The yanks brass has been all over him for years and when the opportunity presented itself to acquire him they jumped all over it. He exceeded their expectations and he goes into spring training as the starter. Bird needs to have a hell of a spring to get that job back

you on Britton. Younger, can close and was getting better every outing. They have to see what Kimbrel does. If Kimbrel moves on, the Red Sox will jump on Britton with both feet. Not sure Hal will give him 3 to 5 years at $13-$17 mill to be a setup man. I would.

Was probably the Cards second best hitter last year and was occasionally held out of the lineup because his defense was such a liability. He’s a DH with emergency fielding capabilities

Martinez is an interesting player broadly, but I'm not interested in NYY adding anyone at this point who is going to require significant time in the DH slot to maximize their value to the team.

In the highly unlikely scenario that Stanton is moved, I'd gladly have that conversation.

In comment 14218316 bigbluehoya said:

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In the highly unlikely scenario that Stanton is moved, I'd gladly have that conversation.

If Stanton is moved, Harper is coming. There is no reason to move Stanton unless they want to sign Harper (assuming Kershaw isn't the reason for the trade - but even then they would need to sign Harper.)

In comment 14218321 section125 said:

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In comment 14218316 bigbluehoya said: Quote: In the highly unlikely scenario that Stanton is moved, I'd gladly have that conversation. If Stanton is moved, Harper is coming. There is no reason to move Stanton unless they want to sign Harper (assuming Kershaw isn't the reason for the trade - but even then they would need to sign Harper.)

I agree, but I still think that makes the DH slot a lot more available-for-use than it is currently. I think NYY would view Harper as a guy who can legitimately be your everyday LF. I don't think they feel the same about Stanton.

(if Stanton is here, they still need to commit to playing him in the OF a lot more than they did last year, IMO)

To me, we are locked in a multi year dynastic ring a round with the Sox, the Astros and the Indians. And maybe the Rays in a year or so.

Each has points of vulnerability (the Sox need to re fill the minors, etc.) and each has enduring strengths that wont be far from needing a few pieces to make them dangerous or hot in the playoffs over the next few years.

We tend to look at the Yankees and what they need for this year. How are they doing compared to the others at building core strengths?

I think they have some big downside or upside unknowns as compared to the others (do we have an Ace in Severino? a perpetual All Star in Sanchez? A steadily improving Andujar or a limited skewed profile? A good or tradeable 1st baseman in Bird or Voit? A potential star in FLorial or a guy with a ceiling? A tradeable asset in Frazier or a guy whose injuries limit his future? Will Didi be fine?)

To me, the Yankees have more unknowns which could turn out great ( Severino, Sanchez, a revival of the great potential Bird had) or turn out limiting.

Your thoughts?

with both capable of playing only first base may create a roster crunch.

Can't carry Ellsbury, Frazier, Voit and Bird. Something would have to give. Didn't have to face this last August with Ellsbury/Frazier out.

For roster flexibility, Yanks should think about getting, or training, an IF to play backup 1B. With Walker gone, they don't have that guy.

Romine has played 1B, but having the backup C also be the backup 1B is not ideal.

I would think that if the Yanks sign Machado, outside of finding one, maybe 2, bullpen arms, I think the off-season should be pretty much done.

On thing that needs to be recognized- the Yanks have drained off a large portion of their upper level depth. There are still a number of bullpen arms and a SP prospect or two- but outside of Frazier and Estrada, no likely starting level position players.

At the same time, Hicks, Didi, Gardner and Romine are all FA at the end of the 2019 season.

The Yanks might need to save some prospects for a big deal next off-season, or a trade deadline move if a longer term guy becomes available at a reasonable price.

I think the Red Sox are in the least desirable position going forward of the 4 teams. Not much in the minors, 4 more years of Price, 3 more years of Pedroia, and big time paydays coming if they want to keep Sale, JD, Bogaerts, Betts. I wouldn’t say they are in trouble at all, but relative to the others I think they’ll require more spending and savvy maneuvering to stay elite.

The Indians are sadly a small market team. I think they’ve done an awesome job of building talent. It’s a shame to see them have players like Kluber (what a bargain of a contract!) and Bauer on the block. But, if they can turn them back into more young, cost controlled hitting talent, they’ll stay good. Lindor and Ramirez are absolute studs.

All of the sudden, it looks like pitching could actually be a bit of a concern for the Astros...Keuchel/Morton walking and McCullers UCL all at once will do that to you. But their minors are strong and stacked, and they’ve been good at developing guys and maximizing talent. Correa needs to be better than he has been for them.

I think the Yankees are in great shape. Their farm isn’t as strong as it was, but it’s almost exclusively due to graduations. If they just open the wallet to the level that the Sox and Dodgers have been willing to do repeatedly, there’s no reason whatsoever that the next 10 years shouldn’t be an incredible run. They should play in 7 ALCS and 4-5 WS during that span if they do it right.

But he did look to be flirting with disaster at times. I could be convinced that he's on the brink of a major regression.

Here's what worries me. We have heard virtually zero talk about extending any of the Yankees young core players, despite the fact that several of the are due to hit FA in a year (Hicks, Didi, Betances). There's been a huge trend in MLB over the past few years in extending players while they are young to prevent having them hit FA and paying market rate dollars for those players.

It's also becoming apparent that the Yankees are not willing to pay (or overpay) top dollars to attract major free agents. See Patrick Corbin, Harper, Machado, etc. In fact, when was the last time the Yankees lured a major free agent here? Ellsbury and Tanaka in 2013? The Stanton trade was made specifically because he was on a below market deal (in terms of salary cap hit).

So if you put these two trends together you can easily foresee the Yankees letting some of their core players leave via free agency while the Yankees go bargain hunting for their replacements.

Bottom line is when you have an owner who values profit making over winning (which is becoming mere evident with Hal by the day) you're only window to contend is going to come when you have really good young cost-controlled players. We have that now....but things will start to change as soon as next year.

Anyway, my biggest concern is that for the life of me I can't understand why we are not trying to extend Didi, Hicks, Betances, Judge, Sanchez, etc. It would actually save the Yankees money long term. The fact that the Yankees are not even considering such extensions is ringing huge alarm bells for me.

That's nothing new.

In comment 14218284 Dnew15 said:

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the rotation is "pretty set" at all. I still think they make a move to a legit ace. No way Cashman doesn't see that the Yanks still don't have one.

Same here. Until they get an ace, front of the rotation pitcher, they are not set. It was painfully obvious this past post-season what the one missing variable was.

I'd like to see Stanton moved to the Dodgers for whatever. Sign Harper for 7yr/$35mil w/ opt out after 4yr. Sign Marwin Gonzalez to play 3rd and be our super sub. Trade Gray, Frazier, and some minor league pieces for Kluber. Try and sign Ottavino and Britton and call it an off season.

Cmon

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Trade Gray, Frazier, and some minor league pieces for Kluber.

You sound like alot of the BBI Met fans lately.

In comment 14218357 Greg from LI said:

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That's nothing new.

That's mostly true Greg (except for Garnder), but the difference in the past was that the Yankees were willing to pay top dollar to keep their players once they hit FA (i.e. Jeter, Bernie). They don't appear to be willing to do that anymore (see Cano).

If they are not willing to extend their young guys before they hit FA, and not willing to pay top dollar once they hit FA, they are going to lose them.

Jose Martinez is a horrid defensive player. Really nice hitter, but he's got to go somewhere he can DH a good bit and that won't be here.

And the concept that Hal is sitting there saying cool we're selling tickets and making the playoffs so why bother really going for it is nonsense. Sure he's not his dad, he values the investment more than George did. However when they pass on FA's is because they are making sense and Cashman has decided to. Getting under the luxury tax was a realistic goal that made sense. If they feel Machado is worth it they'll pay for him. This organization is being run like a smart organization in the good hands of Cashman. George had the good and bad. At first in the 70's he took a solid core and spent to make them a championship team. HE was an unmitigated disaster of over spending in the 80's and crashed the organization in the early 90's. When they built a good organization it was because of smart decision making and player development. In fact things start going south in 2002 when they broke the seal and paid up for Giambi. Thats started a trend- ARod, Ellsbury etc... where they went for the shiniest object on the market. Listen if Cash decides Machado is the guy to go with I'm on board, its hard to argue the talent/age combo there.

I fully expect them to sign Machado. If that doesn't happen, I'll start bitching, but until then I'm not going to lose my mind of them not overpaying Patrick Corbin.

I absolutely expect Machado in pinstripes - I also think we will add 2 relievers. I still don't think Robertson is coming back - I could see us signing Ottavino.

If Keuchel's market isn't that hot, I'd consider swooping in there... he might be sign-able for a relatively fair price.

In comment 14218402 Greg from LI said:

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I fully expect them to sign Machado. If that doesn't happen, I'll start bitching, but until then I'm not going to lose my mind of them not overpaying Patrick Corbin.

That's fair enough.

Just curious, do you think the Yankees will re-sign Hicks, Did and Betances next year after they hit free agency?

Didi, the injury probably means they get him at a bit of a discount, so yeah.

Betances, I'm not sure. Relievers are volatile and often overpaid.

...in the minors. Or if Florial is still with the team by the time all the wheeling and dealing is done.

defensively. But the Yankee found one in Voit. You would have thought that was impossible. With Andujar at 3B this is historically bad infield defense. Today I read they are seriously considering Torres at SS until Didi comes back. I feel bad for the Yankee pitchers who allow ground balls in play. That is horrendous defense behind them.

But this offseason they need to decide whether Harper or Machado fit, and for how much. They were right to cap the Cano offer at 8 years, and were willing to pay more per year to sign him.

Should they sign Harper without a position for him, or for $400M? $500M for 12 years"? I wouldn't. Boras always looks to break records, with contracts that are anchors to teams in the long run. Let Philly give him that.

Machado has a position for us, and I hope we sign him. But I'd prefer to keep Didi at SS and Machado at 3B, and if we do that, we need to trade Andujar, and I'd hate to give that kid up, especially selling short as we might be after only one year in the majors. I'd prefer Miggy move to 1B than trade him, but then how do you land your ace pitcher?

Bill, I love the Yankees' young core: Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, Stanton...even Hicks and Didi are in the prime of their careers. So it comes down to pitching, as it often does. Can the Yanks develop any more top starters in the next few years? Is Montgomery going to come back all the way, and become a solid #2/3? Can Sevi stop tipping pitches? Will Tanaka's arm hold out? Can they land either Kluber or Baumgartner at some point? Or Cole in FA next year?

I played and coached baseball on the scholastic level. One of my friends who played baseball with Didi in Australia and played minor league ball, agrees with me that Voit is a good hitter. Great eye at the plate and rarely gets fooled on pitches.
All the talk about possible big money signings do not take into account how much Judge, Torres, and Andujar, will cost to retain in the future. I can understand if the latter three, due to years of service, will be cost effective, but when it comes time to pay them it will help if Yanks don't get trapped by any contracts like Elsbury.

will have if guys like Sanchez and Judge are not out of the lineup for months at a time and we perhaps ADD to the lineup.

sign Harper
sign Miller
sign Robertson

Don't shit on the fans Hal. Stick it in and break it off in Boston and Houston instead.

Britton or DRob, I have zero idea what they're going to do. Machado just SEEMS to fit, but that doesn't mean they sign him. Harper clearly fits in some ways and doesn't in others, but they've been decidedly negative on suggestions that they should sign him. Smokescreens? Perhaps. But up until the Paxton trade happened, and until the initial Rosenthal tweet that Happ had signed (he walked back from it, but a deal was still close at that point) they have leaked nothing.

Tigers swooped in today and took Tyler Hill from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft. He was one of their best minor league players. Yanks just traded with Detroit to get him.

Since a drafted player from the Rule 5 draft must be on the roster for the whole year, and the Yanks are overloaded with outfielders (meaning Hill will not be coming up), can the Yanks keep him because they traded for him? Doesn't make sense to me.

The story in the NY Post says he was drafted today in the "Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft". Is that different than the regular Rule 5 draft???

I'll post the story in a link
Yanks swoop in on one of Red Sox best players - ( New Window )

since it was in the AAA part of the draft.

you get to keep the guy.

the "25-man roster or return him to original team" thing is only for the major league portion of the rule 5 draft.

Hill was taken in the minor league portion.

- Andujar should be untouchable (please don't trade him - he's clutch)
- Florial should be untouchable (please don't trade him - he's going to be a show stopper in a couple of years)

- Please sign Andrew Miller and put him back in our pen
- Please Keep Robertson

- Sign Machado and get it overwith

- I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher

In comment 14218668 bigbluehoya said:

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you get to keep the guy. the "25-man roster or return him to original team" thing is only for the major league portion of the rule 5 draft. Hill was taken in the minor league portion.

Thanks - that's what I was hoping to hear

In comment 14218676 mavric said:

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- I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher

It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy.

In comment 14218685 Gatorade Dunk said:

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In comment 14218676 mavric said: Quote: - I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy.

Sonny Gray is a rock solid pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Maybe they keep him and only let him pitch in away games. Seen it before where a good player gets the Yankee-Yips when under the bright lights and fold like a well-oiled lawn chair. They'vee talked about a 6-man rotation this year and maybe they could work him when he's away from home field. For whatever reason, he only sucks when he's pitching at the stadium.

I don't want to see us lose Frazier because I think he's going to be a stud when he's healthy. He's a valuable commodity. A package of Gray/Frazier should make low budget teams salivate - IMHO

at the higher levels, but he wasn't particularly highly rated on their farm. I wouldn't get too excited.

but I think my original prediction (someone in a team's 7-10 range and someone else in the 20-30 range) is probably going to be light.

In comment 14218709 mavric said:

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In comment 14218685 Gatorade Dunk said: Quote: In comment 14218676 mavric said: Quote: - I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy. Sonny Gray is a rock solid pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Maybe they keep him and only let him pitch in away games. Seen it before where a good player gets the Yankee-Yips when under the bright lights and fold like a well-oiled lawn chair. They'vee talked about a 6-man rotation this year and maybe they could work him when he's away from home field. For whatever reason, he only sucks when he's pitching at the stadium. I don't want to see us lose Frazier because I think he's going to be a stud when he's healthy. He's a valuable commodity. A package of Gray/Frazier should make low budget teams salivate - IMHO

There's a few issues with your line of thinking, IMO:

1) Gray might be rock solid on the road, but the Yanks don't genuinely have keeping him as an option, given Cashman's own statements. So, whatever leverage they have will have to come externally in the form of interest from multiple teams (or at least the appearance of that). And any team in a large market might have concerns about Gray handling pressure in their city based on his performance in NY.

2) Using "when healthy" as a qualifier for Frazier's potential completely dismisses the fact that he hasn't been healthy, and that needs to be factored into his value. It also ignores the fact that he's pretty much exclusively a corner OF, and there just isn't a ton of positional scarcity there. Is Frazier truly a special kind of talent (a la Judge)? Maybe we disagree, but I think Frazier is a good-not-great type of player. You may think he's better than that, which is fine, but by how much? By enough to offset the difference between Gray and the "stellar" SP you're looking to acquire?

3) Using any two players in combination starts to narrow the field, by definition, wouldn't you agree? Are there teams with interest in Frazier who would consider adding Gray as well (and vice versa)? Of course. Are there teams that are interested in each individually enough that they would essentially pay full price for both?

4) Building off of #3 above, are there teams who would pay full price for a Gray/Frazier combo that have the "stellar" SP that you desire? If so, how many of them are there? Who are they? Who are the "stellar" SPs on these teams that the Yankees would be getting back?

Even if we put aside the relative value of Gray and Frazier as trade chips (since I suspect we have pretty different valuations on them), there's a lot that would need to line up just in terms of the external factors for that pair to return what you're hoping for - even if we take your valuations, the likelihood of getting a stud SP back for just those two alone is fairly remote, IMO.

Dallas Keuchel
.
.
.
Mike Fiers
Gio Gonzalez
.
.
.
.
Ervin Santana
Drew Pomeranz
Matt Harvey
Marco Estrada
Brett Anderson

IDK about you, but I'd rather have Sonny Gray than anyone on that list save Keuchel, and Keuchel could get 4-5 years.

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IDK about you, but I'd rather have Sonny Gray than anyone on that list save Keuchel, and Keuchel could get 4-5 years.

I think if the Yankees add another starter it will be via trade.

They have a lot of kids, and even if they don't end up working out next year's FA starting pitching class has a lot of big names. Mostly older guys, but not all of them. It would be unfortunate if they lacked the roster flexibility to make a move for a starter because they're locked into multi-year commitments with everyone on the staff.

In comment 14218710 Dunedin81 said:

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at the higher levels, but he wasn't particularly highly rated on their farm. I wouldn't get too excited.

Probably not, but just sticking a finger in the Red Sox's eye gives me a bit of pleasure.
Hope he pans out to be a stud!

This staff and team will win. 95-100 games as is. If they can get that big pitcher during the season or pre deadline that’s when to strike. That guy may not be available right now or is overpriced . No need to panic.

and some measure of fatigue, injury or mechanical flaw (tipping?) made him bad down the stretch. He didn't forget how to pitch. If he's healthy, he has at least as much potential to be an ace next year as anyone on the market, save for Kluber.

In comment 14218746 Dunedin81 said:

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They have a lot of kids, and even if they don't end up working out next year's FA starting pitching class has a lot of big names. Mostly older guys, but not all of them. It would be unfortunate if they lacked the roster flexibility to make a move for a starter because they're locked into multi-year commitments with everyone on the staff.

Totally agree. We have 5 starters already, let's let the kids like German and Loaisiga fill in when needed, and hope that one of them develops into a frontline starter (both have front-line stuff but just need to work on controlling it).

The only trade I think I'd want to see for another pitcher would be an Andujar-centered deal that nets someone like Kluber (provided we also sign Machado)

I'm kinda warming to the idea of just signing Keuchel if the price tag isn't outrageous. It seems like the market on him is kind of cool right now.

What I wonder is how they're going to handle it positionally should they sign Machado but NOT deal Miggy.

I would assume in that case, Miggy stays @ 3B and Machado plays SS - but then there's a logjam when Didi is back. Who sits? You have Torres, Andujar, Machado and Gregorius all battling for 3 IF spots and all 4 of those guys need to be in the lineup every day.

Punting is also an option - we could look to make an in-season deal to address it.

But I worry about the defensive aspect when you're talking about an Andujar/Machado left side. Compound that with the below average defense we're going to get @ 1B and the fact that Torres isn't even naturally a 2B... things could get a little messy there.

but from what I've heard Machado only wants to play SS. Maybe he changes his mind, idk, but that's what I heard....

and it's no guarantee he is an everyday player in the field when he does come back, at least not immediately.

And I love Didi, but he could legitimately command 5/$80 or more next offseason. I think Bogaerts is the only other SS of consequence scheduled to be on the market. There is zero guarantee they give a 30 year old shortstop a 5 year deal.

Zero problem with signing Manny and figuring out the rest later.

In comment 14218851 Dunedin81 said:

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and it's no guarantee he is an everyday player in the field when he does come back, at least not immediately. And I love Didi, but he could legitimately command 5/$80 or more next offseason. I think Bogaerts is the only other SS of consequence scheduled to be on the market. There is zero guarantee they give a 30 year old shortstop a 5 year deal. Zero problem with signing Manny and figuring out the rest later.

No disagreement there -

I guess the question is, are we comfortable with Machado playing SS long-term? Especially if it's Andujar to his right. We might have some adventurous grounders hit to the left side.

Machado isn't a terrible SS - he actually played pretty well there in LA from what I saw. It just seems he's a much better fit @ 3B.

and how he projects going forward. I won't link it or paste much from it directly since it's behind a pay wall. But it does not paint a pretty picture.

About 650 rookies in all positions have played in MLB since they started keeping defensive stats publically. Adnjuar was 16th worst. They broke it down to bottom of the list 3B's. None of them lasted at 3B very long after their rookie years.

Then they looked at plate discipline by rookies and if it improves over time. They identified 25 rookies who hit above league average at their positions with a less than 6% walk rate since 2000. Over half of them never had an above average walk rate. The ones that did improve, improved very little.

The Athletic conclusion was that "Andújar is a less than 50/50 shot to improve either his defense or his walk rate, and that means he’s an even lesser chance to improve both".

They also projected him at 1B where his offense projects just a tick above league average. It's much better at 3B but not close to elite there either.

I wonder if he has a lot less value than some of us thought as a trade chip.

That's a really good post, thanks for the info. I think all of those concerns are completely valid. I also think it's possible that Andujar is going to become an elite MVP level hitter who's bat is so good we can live with the crappy defense or even simple plug him at 1B or DH.

He's a tough one to project for sure.

A lot of his "range issues" involved handling the balls once he got to them rather than getting to them. If his exchange smooths out he could be serviceable. Has plenty of arm for it.

I'm not going to say he's a GG shortstop, because he may never be even above average. But yeah, he was a lot better playing with an analytically-driven team that believed strongly in positioning. The Yankees are similar.

are very inconsistent. That's something he can learn. I can't speak to his range, but more of his errors seemed to me to be throwing ones than fielding ones.

It would be stupid to trade him just for the sake of trading him if the return doesn’t make sense. Also, if we’re relying on CC Sabathi to stay healthy all year that’s a foolish gamble in my view.

In comment 14218858 arniefez said:

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Then they looked at plate discipline by rookies and if it improves over time. They identified 25 rookies who hit above league average at their positions with a less than 6% walk rate since 2000. Over half of them never had an above average walk rate. The ones that did improve, improved very little.

You know who had lower walk rate than Andujar in their rookie years?

Robinson Cano and Manny Machado.

In comment 14218709 mavric said:

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In comment 14218685 Gatorade Dunk said: Quote: In comment 14218676 mavric said: Quote: - I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy. Sonny Gray is a rock solid pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Maybe they keep him and only let him pitch in away games. Seen it before where a good player gets the Yankee-Yips when under the bright lights and fold like a well-oiled lawn chair. They'vee talked about a 6-man rotation this year and maybe they could work him when he's away from home field. For whatever reason, he only sucks when he's pitching at the stadium. I don't want to see us lose Frazier because I think he's going to be a stud when he's healthy. He's a valuable commodity. A package of Gray/Frazier should make low budget teams salivate - IMHO

Speaking of. There was a blurb yesterday that Frazier has resumed baseball activities. Hopefully he is out of the woods and the extra time of the offseason will allow him to put the concussion behind him

In comment 14218851 Dunedin81 said:

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and it's no guarantee he is an everyday player in the field when he does come back, at least not immediately. And I love Didi, but he could legitimately command 5/$80 or more next offseason. I think Bogaerts is the only other SS of consequence scheduled to be on the market. There is zero guarantee they give a 30 year old shortstop a 5 year deal. Zero problem with signing Manny and figuring out the rest later.

Sadly, I agree. I still can't believe Didi's bad luck.

He's a heck of a player.

But five years for a 30 year old shortstop is a gamble.

Their starting pitching is still shaky at this point. Cashman said from the start that they would try to deal Gray but if they couldn't find a deal that makes sense they'd keep Gray. At this point it doesn't make sense to trade Gray unless they get a pitcher back. The pitcher doesn't need to be a world beater, but its unlikely they'll even get that. Gray was an ace in Oakland and was decent for us in 2017, even into the post season. The best thing to do is to hang on to him and hope he mans up.

In comment 14218980 Dunedin81 said:

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But five years for a 30 year old shortstop is a gamble.

Yup. Which is why we should have given him a 5 year extension 2 years ago. Instead we'll either let him walk or overpay him.

The Yankees refusal to extend their young players is just stupid and is going to damage the franchise.

In comment 14218902 Dave in PA said:

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It would be stupid to trade him just for the sake of trading him if the return doesn’t make sense. Also, if we’re relying on CC Sabathi to stay healthy all year that’s a foolish gamble in my view.

I don’t think there’s anything to worry about with Gray. He’ll be traded for something or somethings of real value. Don’t expect a Homeric return. Much like making the Happ signing “official”, I don’t think they are operating with their hair on fire because there are 40-man roster implications. No reason to hurry along the moves that create 40-man roster cuts if there are moves in the hopper that may simultaneously create space.

I suspect that the win/lose on Machado is the first domino that determines what follows.

In comment 14218845 Mike from SI said:

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but from what I've heard Machado only wants to play SS. Maybe he changes his mind, idk, but that's what I heard....

Mike that is not asshat info. Manny said he want to play SS and that is why the Orioles moved him there this year. But, money talks and BS walks. He will take the money and play where the Yanks put him.

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In comment 14219004 yatqb said:

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Or he can go to 3rd base....

In comment 14218991 section125 said:

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In comment 14218845 Mike from SI said: Quote: but from what I've heard Machado only wants to play SS. Maybe he changes his mind, idk, but that's what I heard.... Mike that is not asshat info. Manny said he want to play SS and that is why the Orioles moved him there this year. But, money talks and BS walks. He will take the money and play where the Yanks put him.

This, he would rather play SS but he will play whatever position the highest bidder wants him to.

He is done with the Yankees, D O N E done. How could you send him out to the mound again with the slightest confidence that he will be anything but batting practice

If Sevy is still messed up, sure, your ace is in trouble, but after that, most teams would die for CC as a fifth starter. Happ as a 4th? I am not sure where all the fans think they can Gary an all star at each spot....

there is a good chance he pitched lights out against the bottom feeders like Baltimore et al. The guy flat out can't be counted on ever.

If you can get a pair of shoes with holes in them for him take it. Seriously he likely got lucky with road match ups last year drawing some soft teams.But I am all for selling high if you can bamboozle someone

In comment 14219039 Greg from LI said:

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He is done with the Yankees, D O N E done. How could you send him out to the mound again with the slightest confidence that he will be anything but batting practice

At worst he’ll be a long reliever/spot starter. How can you just throw that away ? If anything of value was being offered a deal would have happened by now. Does it make sense just to throw him away just because we’re pissed that he sucked last year ?

a penny with an agent. I think the Yanks did notice a slight downward trend in his arm and stats.

Better to get out a year early then a year late.Not worth the 15 million a year for an aging reliever pitching 7th or 8th inning. You could go bankrupt that way. Probably have a guy in the minors that can handle the one inning for peanuts. Save the bucks for the big guys.

You can find a Robertson many times over. The Machado's not so easily.

In comment 14219060 Ron from Ninerland said:

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In comment 14219039 Greg from LI said: Quote: He is done with the Yankees, D O N E done. How could you send him out to the mound again with the slightest confidence that he will be anything but batting practice At worst he’ll be a long reliever/spot starter. How can you just throw that away ? If anything of value was being offered a deal would have happened by now. Does it make sense just to throw him away just because we’re pissed that he sucked last year ?

He probably the best SP available on the market (short of Kluber) and the least expensive to get. Cash will get something decent for him.

I read an article in The Athletic to the effect that one reason the Yankees liked Sanchez was that he followed the game plan and pitching plan per opponent very well. Apparently, the pitching plans are very driven by analytics. In sum, the FO cares about and measures pitching adherence to plan.

It made me wonder if Grey pitches by his current feel for his pitches and ignores the weaknesses of opponent batters?

The reason I bring that up is that the hard up for pitching Yankees sure seem very clear they are done with the guy...to the point of self harming their own negotiating position.

That Gray will yield the shortstop or second baseman they need. The only scenario I like signing Machado is if we trade Stanton, then you can eventually put Andujar at DH, work with him on his defense at first base and outfield, let him be a DH/utility player that gets 500 - 600 at bats. If they add Machado and keep Stanton, they are really going to regret it big time, and it still ma not bring a single title, what it will do is prevent you from keeping all the future free agents you will want to keep. The organization will then be all screwed up with outsiders having huge contracts and players coming through the system gone, no way to run a railroad. but I don't see Cashman being that big a fool.

How much will Stanton actually cost the Yankees each year in the future?

In comment 14219520 PaulN said:

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That Gray will yield the shortstop or second baseman they need. The only scenario I like signing Machado is if we trade Stanton, then you can eventually put Andujar at DH, work with him on his defense at first base and outfield, let him be a DH/utility player that gets 500 - 600 at bats. If they add Machado and keep Stanton, they are really going to regret it big time, and it still may not bring a single title, what it will do is prevent you from keeping all the future free agents you will want to keep. The organization will then be all screwed up with outsiders having huge contracts and players coming through the system gone, no way to run a railroad. but I don't see Cashman being that big a fool.

So you don't like adding 35 to 40 HRs per season to Stanton's 35-40 HRs per season and a gold glove 3rd baseman, to boot. Adding Machado seriously increases the chances of winning multiple World Series, which is the goal of putting together a team. Teams are always kicking the salary can down the road and the Yanks have time to sort it out.

In comment 14219527 Bill2 said:

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How much will Stanton actually cost the Yankees each year in the future?

Roughly $22/per, which is below market for his bat.

Exactly

Stanton 2018: .266 38 HRs 100 RBIs 102 Runs scored

Machado 2018: .297 37 HRs 107 RBIs 84 Runs scored

Harper 2018: .249 34 HRs 100 RBIs 103 Runs scored

First of all, i would bet that Stanton has an uptick across the board in his stats in 2019. His performance was actually pretty damn good considering he was on a new team, in a new league and playing LF or DH which was new territory. It also must be taken into account that Judge, Sanchez, Hicks and Gregorius missed chunks of time and Stanton (although dealing with some injuries himself) held the fort.

Finally we come to money. Stanton is due to make $25 mil in 2019 and 2020. Harper and Machado will probably be getting 30+ million a season. Looking at the how close the production numbers above are and the real possibility that Stanton could see an improvement means he could be playing for 5-10 mil less a season than the other guys. To make things more interesting, Stanton has a buyout after the 2020 season. If he decides to pass on it, which is probable, the Yanks receive $30 million from the Marlins. That means the rest of his contract will be 7 years at 154 mil or $22 mil per season.

The ends of these mega-contracts are never pretty, but if Stanton stays productive (it will help that he can eventually become a full-time DH in the AL), he could be playing for 8-10 mil less than Machado or Harper while still providing similar production.

on paper, his salary matches his production, if not more, and probably will be so for a few years. It’s the last few years that are worrisome. His presence also limits our roster flexibility, his addition took place when we already had a surplus of DH/OF types. Now Andujar almost has to go, Sanchez has to continue to struggle behind the plate defensively, and Frazier has no role at all.

But, most importantly, did you see him in the playoffs and against good pitching in general? We are comfortably projecting that he will produce better being familiar with the surroundings but I am not so sure he will improve against better pitching. I can’t imagine he will age well being such a guess, mistake hitter.

I won’t gripe too much if we have one of Stanton, Harper, or Machado on the roster. Having two of them, with big deals for Judge on the horizon, is not a good idea in my opinion.

He becomes very valuable in context when there are injuries (as there are every year).

And because he is there at above average production at below average price per production...we don't have to sell all out to add those bats at years or amounts beyond sanity.

Lack of apparent hustle is pretty easy to swallow with stellar defense and a mid-.800s OPS.

In comment 14219578 Jim in Hoboken said:

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on paper, his salary matches his production, if not more, and probably will be so for a few years. It’s the last few years that are worrisome. His presence also limits our roster flexibility, his addition took place when we already had a surplus of DH/OF types. Now Andujar almost has to go, Sanchez has to continue to struggle behind the plate defensively, and Frazier has no role at all. But, most importantly, did you see him in the playoffs and against good pitching in general? We are comfortably projecting that he will produce better being familiar with the surroundings but I am not so sure he will improve against better pitching. I can’t imagine he will age well being such a guess, mistake hitter. I won’t gripe too much if we have one of Stanton, Harper, or Machado on the roster. Having two of them, with big deals for Judge on the horizon, is not a good idea in my opinion.

Horizon? Judge is not a FA until 2023. Why would anyone be worried about this now that's not named Hal or one of his bean counters. ?

We have to trade Stanton for a more expensive less productive player and then trade Judge now before he is less attractive as a trade chip with fewer cost controlled years left.

That way when some of those 2018 draft 17 year old International signings want their 10 year contracts we will have some room under the luxury tax.

Im worried about those new guys because all know the last years of those contracts never work out for the Yankees.

Maybe we should throw them in the Judge trade

received the luxury tax bill from MLB today after spending 240+ million dollars this year... 12 Million dollar tax.

NYY reset the luxury tax % this year, no excuses not to spend at level terms as the Sox.

In comment 14219678 Bill2 said:

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We have to trade Stanton for a more expensive less productive player and then trade Judge now before he is less attractive as a trade chip with fewer cost controlled years left. That way when some of those 2018 draft 17 year old International signings want their 10 year contracts we will have some room under the luxury tax. Im worried about those new guys because all know the last years of those contracts never work out for the Yankees. Maybe we should throw them in the Judge trade

Never saw you with that much sarcasm. But you are right. The Yanks need to plan for something 5 yrs down the road that may not happen.

The hell with it. Trade everyone for prospects now. Then, bring up the entire River Dogs team because they are cost controlled for about 5-8 years.

I did not mean to be sarcastic to other posters.

I was spoofing the unlikely to materialize concerns and trades the boredom of offseason brings us to consider

In comment 14220084 Bill2 said:

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I did not mean to be sarcastic to other posters. I was spoofing the unlikely to materialize concerns and trades the boredom of offseason brings us to consider

Read it as you dressing down some of the folks whose thinking is spending now precludes being able to pay for our own players down the road. And I agree with you. Now is the time to win. The Yanks can reboot whenever they want with their deep pockets.

Just wish they'd get Manny, stop fooling around, and finalize the juggernaut.
Manny gets them a huge bat, strengthens the left side of the infield at either third base or shortstop(temporarily until Didi returns), keeps Torres at 2nd where he is best. Win, win, win all around.

And I think that Machado fills a lot of our needs. Let's hope that his desire to be a Yankee overcomes the price and years that teams like Philly will offer.

In comment 14220221 yatqb said:

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And I think that Machado fills a lot of our needs. Let's hope that his desire to be a Yankee overcomes the price and years that teams like Philly will offer.

yat, money always wins. I would hope for 8 yrs/$270 to be enough, but the Phillies will probably fly with the 10/$350 or the more ridiculous 12/$400.

In comment 14220287 section125 said:

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In comment 14220221 yatqb said: Quote: And I think that Machado fills a lot of our needs. Let's hope that his desire to be a Yankee overcomes the price and years that teams like Philly will offer. yat, money always wins. I would hope for 8 yrs/$270 to be enough, but the Phillies will probably fly with the 10/$350 or the more ridiculous 12/$400.

If Philly were offering that we’d be seeing Machado taking naked selfies standunext to the Rocky statue by now, then going the jig all the way to the bank

Wednesday as per George King III

In comment 14220287 section125 said:

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In comment 14220221 yatqb said: Quote: And I think that Machado fills a lot of our needs. Let's hope that his desire to be a Yankee overcomes the price and years that teams like Philly will offer. yat, money always wins. I would hope for 8 yrs/$270 to be enough, but the Phillies will probably fly with the 10/$350 or the more ridiculous 12/$400.

I could see Philly offering something like 11 years for $360M.

because there is enough depressing football news on the front page.

the bat makes plenty of sense, but NFW a team as analytically minded as the Yankees, that went into the offseason trying to reduce the number of runs scored against it by bolstering the rotation, is going to start Andujar, Voit and Murphy in the same infield. Between them they could be -60 DRS.

like the Yankees are confident on Machado. Shopping Andujar (presumably for a SP).

...

should have noted Rosenthal the one making the claim of Andujar being shopped.

I don't see the urgency to shop Andujar. Unless his offensive production tanks and his defense remains consistently crappy, he'll have trade value at the deadline. And by then, they should know what they can expect this season from Didi. Put Andujar on the left side of the infield along with Machado and go from there.

the story of Luke Voit but you throw an average to above average 1st baseman out there with Andujar and suddenly his 15 error season becomes 10. Bird really was no better before Voit when he played 1st either. It literally felt like any throw that was not right in the mitt led to an error. I would hate to see him traded for a 6th starter only to have the Yankees go into the post season next year and turn to the bullpen every game in the 5th because no matter how good these starters are, the trend now is to go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. I don't care how good the starters are, the average length a starter gave in last years post season was 4.6 innings and that included some of the best pitchers in the game.

We still need Andujar.

Like Andujar, there's no particular reason why he can't get better, but he was an out and out butcher over there. Bird is roughly league average, pretty sure-handed but isn't going to make great stabs going right or left.

Andujar is already in Tampa working at it. A lot of his problems involved him double-clutching or eating what were relatively routine GBs. I suspect a lot of his "range limitations" (not recording outs on balls hit so far from him) really just involved him not rushing a throw. Those things can be improved with time, he's a willing learner. That's not a guarantee he gets better, or that he'll be Adrian Beltre with the glove in a year or two, just to say I'd be surprised to see a defensive season anywhere near as bad as the last one.

In comment 14223071 Mike from SI said:

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We still need Andujar.

I can't remember where I read it, but somewhere Cashman ran out the idea that the Yanks could get Machado (or keep Andujar), slide Torres to SS and then get a 2B. His theory was that there are a lot of quality 2B available, but few solid SS available.

The Yanks could also decide to go year-to-year on a 2B too, as they have some middle INF who have enough bat for 2B. Estrada could really use a season at AAA to knock the rust off after an injury filled season- and that glove and bat combo would be very nice at 2B- but it is unlikely that he would be ready mentally and physically to start 2019 in NY.

Something else to consider- if the Yanks decide to trade Andujar, they might not target an established ace type. They could work out a deal where they trade for a young SP on the idea of a cost-controlled bat for a cost-controlled P.

One idea- trade Andujar to Colorado for German Marquez, with some additional pieces on both sides. Remember that Arenado is a FA after 2019- and it is increasingly unclear that the Rockies can afford the deal Arenado wants. This trade would allow the Rockies to trade him and target specific prospects or players to fill in other needs (like 1B, CF, C).

Another idea- trade Andujar to the Phillies for one of their young SP. That would allow the Phillies to add offense for cheap, and then go after Grienke in a trade with the DBacks to fill in the rotation spot.

In comment 14222988 DanMetroMan said:

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should have noted Rosenthal the one making the claim of Andujar being shopped.

He said that a week ago at the meetings. Could very well happen but I don't think he has anything new; just needed filler for his Athletic article.

I'm not going to pay to read the article but the headline itself has a question mark, not a definitive statement:

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Rosenthal: Allure of the 2019-20 free-agent class; Yanks shopping Andújar?; Happ’s confidence; more notes

Parker Bridwell DFAed.