NFT: Yanks talk 12-14

were 1st, so here was my thread starter:

I started this because I am just amazed that there is no talk about DRob returning to the Yanks. Miller, Ottavino are the main objects according to reporters. Even Britton is getting more ink than Robertson (it seems). Most speculation is Robertson to the Red Sox, basically to replace Kelly.

Did Cash see something at the end of last year in Robertson who had a couple shaky outings that he thinks DRob is about to fall off the cliff? Or is it the backlash from the postseason bonus payouts ( which seems to be the main cause speculated by the press)? Could be that Cash feels Green is ready to take that roll at about 1/20 the cost and about 8 years younger. Perhaps Tarpley, too.

You would think that they will wait on Machado and get the relievers 1st. They may wait to see the market on Machado and decide if it is worth it. Something about the lack of connection to Harper makes me feel they have no interest despite what Boras says.

So:
Who will be the interim IF - (SS or 2B)?

Who will the BP arms be?

Do they go for Machado (I think they will)?

Do they go for Kluber later when the market slows down and the Indians get a bit anxious?

I'd rather go with Voit and Bird and keep our assets...

Find a starting pitcher

In comment 14218263 Chip said:

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Find a starting pitcher

Care to expound on that thought? The two are mutually independent.

They have 5 starters, but CC is really 1/2 starter IMV.

Why no to Machado who is almost an ARod clone?

dominant Robertson is he got to the point last year where he was battiling himself out there a bunch making himself have to overwork. He always was a guy that puts guys on and gets out of jams. I think if he is losing it, it will be a verh hard crash. My guess is the yanks wouldnt go near the years he wants.

Britton talk is stronger cause they need a lefty and someone to close some portions of the year as we have seen Chapman gets worn down or out of sync offten. Miller/Britton would give the yanks a B Closer which they need.

...is that, while the Yanks are not yet finished dealing, they will not pay for either Harper or Machado.

Owner wants to keep that money, and why not? He's got a playoff team right now that will keep the fannies in the seats.

And he will bank the money.

Ottavino
Miller
D-Rob
Britton
Kimbrel
Kevin Herrera
Justin Wilson
Soria

Give me a lefty and righty from that group.

It's felt unlikely, and I believe he's probably one of the less likely names on the list for NYY,but I'd really love to have Britton back. I'm a huge fan of the GB profile and I think he's better than his 2018 self. Keeps the ball in the ballpark. Stuff-wise, a nice complement to Chap/Betances.

the rotation is "pretty set" at all.
I still think they make a move to a legit ace.
No way Cashman doesn't see that the Yanks still don't have one.

The yanks brass has been all over him for years and when the opportunity presented itself to acquire him they jumped all over it. He exceeded their expectations and he goes into spring training as the starter. Bird needs to have a hell of a spring to get that job back

you on Britton. Younger, can close and was getting better every outing. They have to see what Kimbrel does. If Kimbrel moves on, the Red Sox will jump on Britton with both feet. Not sure Hal will give him 3 to 5 years at $13-$17 mill to be a setup man. I would.

Was probably the Cards second best hitter last year and was occasionally held out of the lineup because his defense was such a liability. He’s a DH with emergency fielding capabilities

Martinez is an interesting player broadly, but I'm not interested in NYY adding anyone at this point who is going to require significant time in the DH slot to maximize their value to the team.

In the highly unlikely scenario that Stanton is moved, I'd gladly have that conversation.

In comment 14218316 bigbluehoya said:

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In the highly unlikely scenario that Stanton is moved, I'd gladly have that conversation.

If Stanton is moved, Harper is coming. There is no reason to move Stanton unless they want to sign Harper (assuming Kershaw isn't the reason for the trade - but even then they would need to sign Harper.)

In comment 14218321 section125 said:

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In comment 14218316 bigbluehoya said: Quote: In the highly unlikely scenario that Stanton is moved, I'd gladly have that conversation. If Stanton is moved, Harper is coming. There is no reason to move Stanton unless they want to sign Harper (assuming Kershaw isn't the reason for the trade - but even then they would need to sign Harper.)

I agree, but I still think that makes the DH slot a lot more available-for-use than it is currently. I think NYY would view Harper as a guy who can legitimately be your everyday LF. I don't think they feel the same about Stanton.

(if Stanton is here, they still need to commit to playing him in the OF a lot more than they did last year, IMO)

To me, we are locked in a multi year dynastic ring a round with the Sox, the Astros and the Indians. And maybe the Rays in a year or so.

Each has points of vulnerability (the Sox need to re fill the minors, etc.) and each has enduring strengths that wont be far from needing a few pieces to make them dangerous or hot in the playoffs over the next few years.

We tend to look at the Yankees and what they need for this year. How are they doing compared to the others at building core strengths?

I think they have some big downside or upside unknowns as compared to the others (do we have an Ace in Severino? a perpetual All Star in Sanchez? A steadily improving Andujar or a limited skewed profile? A good or tradeable 1st baseman in Bird or Voit? A potential star in FLorial or a guy with a ceiling? A tradeable asset in Frazier or a guy whose injuries limit his future? Will Didi be fine?)

To me, the Yankees have more unknowns which could turn out great ( Severino, Sanchez, a revival of the great potential Bird had) or turn out limiting.

Your thoughts?

with both capable of playing only first base may create a roster crunch.

Can't carry Ellsbury, Frazier, Voit and Bird. Something would have to give. Didn't have to face this last August with Ellsbury/Frazier out.

For roster flexibility, Yanks should think about getting, or training, an IF to play backup 1B. With Walker gone, they don't have that guy.

Romine has played 1B, but having the backup C also be the backup 1B is not ideal.

I would think that if the Yanks sign Machado, outside of finding one, maybe 2, bullpen arms, I think the off-season should be pretty much done.

On thing that needs to be recognized- the Yanks have drained off a large portion of their upper level depth. There are still a number of bullpen arms and a SP prospect or two- but outside of Frazier and Estrada, no likely starting level position players.

At the same time, Hicks, Didi, Gardner and Romine are all FA at the end of the 2019 season.

The Yanks might need to save some prospects for a big deal next off-season, or a trade deadline move if a longer term guy becomes available at a reasonable price.

I think the Red Sox are in the least desirable position going forward of the 4 teams. Not much in the minors, 4 more years of Price, 3 more years of Pedroia, and big time paydays coming if they want to keep Sale, JD, Bogaerts, Betts. I wouldn’t say they are in trouble at all, but relative to the others I think they’ll require more spending and savvy maneuvering to stay elite.

The Indians are sadly a small market team. I think they’ve done an awesome job of building talent. It’s a shame to see them have players like Kluber (what a bargain of a contract!) and Bauer on the block. But, if they can turn them back into more young, cost controlled hitting talent, they’ll stay good. Lindor and Ramirez are absolute studs.

All of the sudden, it looks like pitching could actually be a bit of a concern for the Astros...Keuchel/Morton walking and McCullers UCL all at once will do that to you. But their minors are strong and stacked, and they’ve been good at developing guys and maximizing talent. Correa needs to be better than he has been for them.

I think the Yankees are in great shape. Their farm isn’t as strong as it was, but it’s almost exclusively due to graduations. If they just open the wallet to the level that the Sox and Dodgers have been willing to do repeatedly, there’s no reason whatsoever that the next 10 years shouldn’t be an incredible run. They should play in 7 ALCS and 4-5 WS during that span if they do it right.

But he did look to be flirting with disaster at times. I could be convinced that he's on the brink of a major regression.

Here's what worries me. We have heard virtually zero talk about extending any of the Yankees young core players, despite the fact that several of the are due to hit FA in a year (Hicks, Didi, Betances). There's been a huge trend in MLB over the past few years in extending players while they are young to prevent having them hit FA and paying market rate dollars for those players.

It's also becoming apparent that the Yankees are not willing to pay (or overpay) top dollars to attract major free agents. See Patrick Corbin, Harper, Machado, etc. In fact, when was the last time the Yankees lured a major free agent here? Ellsbury and Tanaka in 2013? The Stanton trade was made specifically because he was on a below market deal (in terms of salary cap hit).

So if you put these two trends together you can easily foresee the Yankees letting some of their core players leave via free agency while the Yankees go bargain hunting for their replacements.

Bottom line is when you have an owner who values profit making over winning (which is becoming mere evident with Hal by the day) you're only window to contend is going to come when you have really good young cost-controlled players. We have that now....but things will start to change as soon as next year.

Anyway, my biggest concern is that for the life of me I can't understand why we are not trying to extend Didi, Hicks, Betances, Judge, Sanchez, etc. It would actually save the Yankees money long term. The fact that the Yankees are not even considering such extensions is ringing huge alarm bells for me.

That's nothing new.

In comment 14218284 Dnew15 said:

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the rotation is "pretty set" at all. I still think they make a move to a legit ace. No way Cashman doesn't see that the Yanks still don't have one.

Same here. Until they get an ace, front of the rotation pitcher, they are not set. It was painfully obvious this past post-season what the one missing variable was.

I'd like to see Stanton moved to the Dodgers for whatever. Sign Harper for 7yr/$35mil w/ opt out after 4yr. Sign Marwin Gonzalez to play 3rd and be our super sub. Trade Gray, Frazier, and some minor league pieces for Kluber. Try and sign Ottavino and Britton and call it an off season.

Cmon

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Trade Gray, Frazier, and some minor league pieces for Kluber.

You sound like alot of the BBI Met fans lately.

In comment 14218357 Greg from LI said:

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That's nothing new.

That's mostly true Greg (except for Garnder), but the difference in the past was that the Yankees were willing to pay top dollar to keep their players once they hit FA (i.e. Jeter, Bernie). They don't appear to be willing to do that anymore (see Cano).

If they are not willing to extend their young guys before they hit FA, and not willing to pay top dollar once they hit FA, they are going to lose them.

Jose Martinez is a horrid defensive player. Really nice hitter, but he's got to go somewhere he can DH a good bit and that won't be here.

And the concept that Hal is sitting there saying cool we're selling tickets and making the playoffs so why bother really going for it is nonsense. Sure he's not his dad, he values the investment more than George did. However when they pass on FA's is because they are making sense and Cashman has decided to. Getting under the luxury tax was a realistic goal that made sense. If they feel Machado is worth it they'll pay for him. This organization is being run like a smart organization in the good hands of Cashman. George had the good and bad. At first in the 70's he took a solid core and spent to make them a championship team. HE was an unmitigated disaster of over spending in the 80's and crashed the organization in the early 90's. When they built a good organization it was because of smart decision making and player development. In fact things start going south in 2002 when they broke the seal and paid up for Giambi. Thats started a trend- ARod, Ellsbury etc... where they went for the shiniest object on the market. Listen if Cash decides Machado is the guy to go with I'm on board, its hard to argue the talent/age combo there.

I fully expect them to sign Machado. If that doesn't happen, I'll start bitching, but until then I'm not going to lose my mind of them not overpaying Patrick Corbin.

I absolutely expect Machado in pinstripes - I also think we will add 2 relievers. I still don't think Robertson is coming back - I could see us signing Ottavino.

If Keuchel's market isn't that hot, I'd consider swooping in there... he might be sign-able for a relatively fair price.

In comment 14218402 Greg from LI said:

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I fully expect them to sign Machado. If that doesn't happen, I'll start bitching, but until then I'm not going to lose my mind of them not overpaying Patrick Corbin.

That's fair enough.

Just curious, do you think the Yankees will re-sign Hicks, Did and Betances next year after they hit free agency?

Didi, the injury probably means they get him at a bit of a discount, so yeah.

Betances, I'm not sure. Relievers are volatile and often overpaid.

...in the minors. Or if Florial is still with the team by the time all the wheeling and dealing is done.

defensively. But the Yankee found one in Voit. You would have thought that was impossible. With Andujar at 3B this is historically bad infield defense. Today I read they are seriously considering Torres at SS until Didi comes back. I feel bad for the Yankee pitchers who allow ground balls in play. That is horrendous defense behind them.

But this offseason they need to decide whether Harper or Machado fit, and for how much. They were right to cap the Cano offer at 8 years, and were willing to pay more per year to sign him.

Should they sign Harper without a position for him, or for $400M? $500M for 12 years"? I wouldn't. Boras always looks to break records, with contracts that are anchors to teams in the long run. Let Philly give him that.

Machado has a position for us, and I hope we sign him. But I'd prefer to keep Didi at SS and Machado at 3B, and if we do that, we need to trade Andujar, and I'd hate to give that kid up, especially selling short as we might be after only one year in the majors. I'd prefer Miggy move to 1B than trade him, but then how do you land your ace pitcher?

Bill, I love the Yankees' young core: Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, Stanton...even Hicks and Didi are in the prime of their careers. So it comes down to pitching, as it often does. Can the Yanks develop any more top starters in the next few years? Is Montgomery going to come back all the way, and become a solid #2/3? Can Sevi stop tipping pitches? Will Tanaka's arm hold out? Can they land either Kluber or Baumgartner at some point? Or Cole in FA next year?

I played and coached baseball on the scholastic level. One of my friends who played baseball with Didi in Australia and played minor league ball, agrees with me that Voit is a good hitter. Great eye at the plate and rarely gets fooled on pitches.
All the talk about possible big money signings do not take into account how much Judge, Torres, and Andujar, will cost to retain in the future. I can understand if the latter three, due to years of service, will be cost effective, but when it comes time to pay them it will help if Yanks don't get trapped by any contracts like Elsbury.

will have if guys like Sanchez and Judge are not out of the lineup for months at a time and we perhaps ADD to the lineup.

sign Harper
sign Miller
sign Robertson

Don't shit on the fans Hal. Stick it in and break it off in Boston and Houston instead.

Britton or DRob, I have zero idea what they're going to do. Machado just SEEMS to fit, but that doesn't mean they sign him. Harper clearly fits in some ways and doesn't in others, but they've been decidedly negative on suggestions that they should sign him. Smokescreens? Perhaps. But up until the Paxton trade happened, and until the initial Rosenthal tweet that Happ had signed (he walked back from it, but a deal was still close at that point) they have leaked nothing.

Tigers swooped in today and took Tyler Hill from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft. He was one of their best minor league players. Yanks just traded with Detroit to get him.

Since a drafted player from the Rule 5 draft must be on the roster for the whole year, and the Yanks are overloaded with outfielders (meaning Hill will not be coming up), can the Yanks keep him because they traded for him? Doesn't make sense to me.

The story in the NY Post says he was drafted today in the "Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft". Is that different than the regular Rule 5 draft???

I'll post the story in a link
Yanks swoop in on one of Red Sox best players - ( New Window )

since it was in the AAA part of the draft.

you get to keep the guy.

the "25-man roster or return him to original team" thing is only for the major league portion of the rule 5 draft.

Hill was taken in the minor league portion.

- Andujar should be untouchable (please don't trade him - he's clutch)
- Florial should be untouchable (please don't trade him - he's going to be a show stopper in a couple of years)

- Please sign Andrew Miller and put him back in our pen
- Please Keep Robertson

- Sign Machado and get it overwith

- I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher

In comment 14218668 bigbluehoya said:

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you get to keep the guy. the "25-man roster or return him to original team" thing is only for the major league portion of the rule 5 draft. Hill was taken in the minor league portion.

Thanks - that's what I was hoping to hear

In comment 14218676 mavric said:

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- I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher

It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy.

In comment 14218685 Gatorade Dunk said:

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In comment 14218676 mavric said: Quote: - I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy.

Sonny Gray is a rock solid pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Maybe they keep him and only let him pitch in away games. Seen it before where a good player gets the Yankee-Yips when under the bright lights and fold like a well-oiled lawn chair. They'vee talked about a 6-man rotation this year and maybe they could work him when he's away from home field. For whatever reason, he only sucks when he's pitching at the stadium.

I don't want to see us lose Frazier because I think he's going to be a stud when he's healthy. He's a valuable commodity. A package of Gray/Frazier should make low budget teams salivate - IMHO

at the higher levels, but he wasn't particularly highly rated on their farm. I wouldn't get too excited.

but I think my original prediction (someone in a team's 7-10 range and someone else in the 20-30 range) is probably going to be light.

In comment 14218709 mavric said:

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In comment 14218685 Gatorade Dunk said: Quote: In comment 14218676 mavric said: Quote: - I have to believe a package of Sonny Gray and Clint Frazier could bring in a stellar starting pitcher It's entirely possible that we define "stellar" differently, but I don't see how Gray and Frazier would return anything more than a mid-rotation guy. Sonny Gray is a rock solid pitcher away from Yankee Stadium. Maybe they keep him and only let him pitch in away games. Seen it before where a good player gets the Yankee-Yips when under the bright lights and fold like a well-oiled lawn chair. They'vee talked about a 6-man rotation this year and maybe they could work him when he's away from home field. For whatever reason, he only sucks when he's pitching at the stadium. I don't want to see us lose Frazier because I think he's going to be a stud when he's healthy. He's a valuable commodity. A package of Gray/Frazier should make low budget teams salivate - IMHO

There's a few issues with your line of thinking, IMO:

1) Gray might be rock solid on the road, but the Yanks don't genuinely have keeping him as an option, given Cashman's own statements. So, whatever leverage they have will have to come externally in the form of interest from multiple teams (or at least the appearance of that). And any team in a large market might have concerns about Gray handling pressure in their city based on his performance in NY.

2) Using "when healthy" as a qualifier for Frazier's potential completely dismisses the fact that he hasn't been healthy, and that needs to be factored into his value. It also ignores the fact that he's pretty much exclusively a corner OF, and there just isn't a ton of positional scarcity there. Is Frazier truly a special kind of talent (a la Judge)? Maybe we disagree, but I think Frazier is a good-not-great type of player. You may think he's better than that, which is fine, but by how much? By enough to offset the difference between Gray and the "stellar" SP you're looking to acquire?

3) Using any two players in combination starts to narrow the field, by definition, wouldn't you agree? Are there teams with interest in Frazier who would consider adding Gray as well (and vice versa)? Of course. Are there teams that are interested in each individually enough that they would essentially pay full price for both?

4) Building off of #3 above, are there teams who would pay full price for a Gray/Frazier combo that have the "stellar" SP that you desire? If so, how many of them are there? Who are they? Who are the "stellar" SPs on these teams that the Yankees would be getting back?

Even if we put aside the relative value of Gray and Frazier as trade chips (since I suspect we have pretty different valuations on them), there's a lot that would need to line up just in terms of the external factors for that pair to return what you're hoping for - even if we take your valuations, the likelihood of getting a stud SP back for just those two alone is fairly remote, IMO.

Dallas Keuchel
.
.
.
Mike Fiers
Gio Gonzalez
.
.
.
.
Ervin Santana
Drew Pomeranz
Matt Harvey
Marco Estrada
Brett Anderson

IDK about you, but I'd rather have Sonny Gray than anyone on that list save Keuchel, and Keuchel could get 4-5 years.