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Draft order (after NO win over CAR)

ray in arlington : 12/17/2018 11:49 pm
Draft Order
===============
Number in parentheses is NYG SOS relative to the listed team, a negative number means NYG has a weaker SOS than that team (i.e. NYG trending to pick ahead of that team for in case of a tie). For example, NYG SOS is currently 6.5 games weaker than JAC, meaning NYG is trending to pick ahead of JAC in case of a tie.)

1. ARI 3-11 (-1)
2. OAK 3-11 (-10) (almost clinched picking behind NYG in case of tie)
3. NYJ 4-10 (+3.5) will play GB
4. SF 4-10 (+4)
5. JAC 4-10 (-6.5) (almost clinched picking behind NYG in case of tie)
6. ATL 5-9 (+5.5) will play CAR and TB
7. DET 5-9 (+5) will play GB
8. TB 5-9 (0) will play ATL
9. NYG 5-9
10. BUF 5-9 (-1)
11. GB 5-8-1 (+8) will play NYJ and DET
12. CAR 6-8 (+2) will play ATL
13. DEN 6-8 (-3)
14. CIN 6-8 (-4) will play CLE
15. CLE 6-7-1 (-2) will play CIN
16. MIA 7-7 (clinched picking ahead of NYG in case of tie)
17. WAS 7-7 (clinched picking ahead of NYG in case of tie)

PHI 7-7 clinched picking behind NYG

Assuming no tie games:
If Giants go 5-11, highest possible pick is #1 (#3 assuming OAK and ARI don’t win out), lowest is #9
If Giants go 6-10, highest possible pick is #3, lowest is #14
If Giants go 7-9, highest possible pick is #7, lowest is #17

================
NYG-TB tiebreak
================
Fewer wins from opponents means picking ahead – common games excluded)
I’m listing TB ahead of NYG based on NYG having more opportunities to increase SOS

NYG: DAL WAS PHI IND TEN JAC HOU 52 wins
Automatic Pickups: WAS-TEN PHI-HOU JAC-HOU IND-TEN WAS-PHI gives 57 wins
Four Possible Pickups: DAL-TB IND-NYG JAC-MIA DAL-NYG

Note that if NYG finish 5-11 they will pick up IND-NYG, DAL-NYG.

TB: NO ATL CAR PIT CLE CIN BAL 52 wins
Automatic Pickups: ATL-CAR CIN-CLE PIT-NO NO-CAR CLE-BAL PIT-CIN gives 58 wins
Two Possible Pickups: BAL-LAC ATL-TB
At 5-11 TB picks up ATL-TB.

If # of total wins ends up the same I think NYG pick ahead.
Thanks  
mattyblue : 12/18/2018 1:44 am : link
Ray! Quite a logjam there, wonder where we will end up.
Who are the teams guaranteed to pick a QB?  
SHO'NUFF : 12/18/2018 2:16 am : link
Jax doesn't have to move, Wash might pull off an insane trade to leapfrog over us. Oak is a wild card...Cincinnati? Detroit?
Thanks...  
Milton : 12/18/2018 5:12 am : link
It'd be nice if the Giants finish 7-9 and get the 11th pick.
RE: Who are the teams guaranteed to pick a QB?  
Milton : 12/18/2018 5:14 am : link
In comment 14224240 SHO'NUFF said:
Quote:
Jax doesn't have to move, Wash might pull off an insane trade to leapfrog over us. Oak is a wild card...Cincinnati? Detroit?
Jacksonville is going to wait for the Giants to take a QB (Drew Lock!) and then work out a trade for Eli.
RE: Who are the teams guaranteed to pick a QB?  
robbieballs2003 : 12/18/2018 6:16 am : link
In comment 14224240 SHO'NUFF said:
Quote:
Jax doesn't have to move, Wash might pull off an insane trade to leapfrog over us. Oak is a wild card...Cincinnati? Detroit?


Nobody is guaranteed to draft a QB. Too much can happen from now until the draft. But in terms of need the teams you mentioned are correct. Add in Tampa Bay.
RE: RE: Who are the teams guaranteed to pick a QB?  
Milton : 12/18/2018 7:23 am : link
In comment 14224249 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
In comment 14224240 SHO'NUFF said:


Quote:


Jax doesn't have to move, Wash might pull off an insane trade to leapfrog over us. Oak is a wild card...Cincinnati? Detroit?



Nobody is guaranteed to draft a QB. Too much can happen from now until the draft. But in terms of need the teams you mentioned are correct. Add in Tampa Bay.
May as well add Carolina to the mix after Cam Newton's performance last night and what he said about his shoulder. He can either count $23.2M against the cap as their starting QB or count $8.5M against the cap if they release him. I know what I'd do.
How come the Giants aren't ahead of Tampa  
jeff57 : 12/18/2018 8:11 am : link
Looks like they have a stronger SOS.
Link - ( New Window )
‘Zona sitting pretty...  
trueblueinpw : 12/18/2018 8:16 am : link
I still can’t believe they were able to trade up and grab Rosen. Now they’re looking at another top pick. I guess all the BBI folks that wanted a QB (I wanted a QB and that QB was JR) can look at Arizona to get an approximation of how that might have worked out for NYG. I actually liked Wilks over Shurmur too - interested to see what happens out there.

Too bad it’s another season of looking at the draft order before Christmas.
Come on  
Doomster : 12/18/2018 8:20 am : link
ATL and Detroit......
tank  
fkap : 12/18/2018 8:31 am : link
tank

tank

and root for other teams to win.

RE: ‘Zona sitting pretty...  
ZogZerg : 12/18/2018 8:33 am : link
In comment 14224305 trueblueinpw said:
Quote:
I still can’t believe they were able to trade up and grab Rosen. Now they’re looking at another top pick. I guess all the BBI folks that wanted a QB (I wanted a QB and that QB was JR) can look at Arizona to get an approximation of how that might have worked out for NYG. I actually liked Wilks over Shurmur too - interested to see what happens out there.

Too bad it’s another season of looking at the draft order before Christmas.



Arizona needs a new coach first.
But, they are in a great spot to build for the future
Milton  
ZogZerg : 12/18/2018 8:35 am : link
No chance Cam is dumped by Carolina.
We all no Cam "cries" after he loses a big game. He has done that for years.
RE: How come the Giants aren't ahead of Tampa  
ray in arlington : 12/18/2018 8:46 am : link
In comment 14224295 jeff57 said:
Quote:
Looks like they have a stronger SOS. Link - ( New Window )


The SOS is the same when we include all opponents on the scheudle, not just the ones played so far. I have taken the additional measure of adjusting SOS knowing that there are games coming up that automatically add 1 win ahd 1 loss to the SOS. See the end of the OP.



Drew Lock will be there at 9 for us...  
No Where Man : 12/18/2018 8:52 am : link
.
Should add  
ray in arlington : 12/18/2018 8:59 am : link
ATL has almost clinched picking ahead of NYG in case of a tie.

Man look at all those crappy, mediocre  
Simms11 : 12/18/2018 9:01 am : link
records! Half the league is below .500! Parity is what owners wanted and they got it. Hell, an 8-8 team can make the playoffs these days and that’s not a rarity. If the Giants somehow won just 2 more games they’d be in the hunt!
RE: RE: How come the Giants aren't ahead of Tampa  
jeff57 : 12/18/2018 9:02 am : link
In comment 14224358 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
In comment 14224295 jeff57 said:


Quote:


Looks like they have a stronger SOS. Link - ( New Window )



The SOS is the same when we include all opponents on the scheudle, not just the ones played so far. I have taken the additional measure of adjusting SOS knowing that there are games coming up that automatically add 1 win ahd 1 loss to the SOS. See the end of the OP.




OK. Thanks.
Josh Allen, ER Kentucky  
WillVAB : 12/18/2018 9:13 am : link
.
Anyone except a QB  
The_Boss : 12/18/2018 9:18 am : link
-
Will be really shitty...  
M.S. : 12/18/2018 9:25 am : link

...if we are picking #9 on Draft team.

This team is worthy of a Top 5 pick.
RE: RE: ‘Zona sitting pretty...  
Bill in UT : 12/18/2018 9:38 am : link
In comment 14224329 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
In comment 14224305 trueblueinpw said:


Quote:


I still can’t believe they were able to trade up and grab Rosen. Now they’re looking at another top pick. I guess all the BBI folks that wanted a QB (I wanted a QB and that QB was JR) can look at Arizona to get an approximation of how that might have worked out for NYG. I actually liked Wilks over Shurmur too - interested to see what happens out there.




Arizona needs a new coach first.
But, they are in a great spot to build for the future


Rosen has not been impressive, albiet behind an OL that is worse than the Giants'.
Also, fan talk here is that both Kiem, the GM, and Wilks may be gone. AZ is probably not the most sought after destination for a top new GM or coach. So not such a great spot for the future.
RE: Josh Allen, ER Kentucky  
BIG FRED 1973 : 12/18/2018 10:05 am : link
In comment 14224390 WillVAB said:
Quote:
.
I saw a new mock on twitter from Jon Ledyard that had Allen going two to the Raiders
RE: Will be really shitty...  
UberAlias : 12/18/2018 10:20 am : link
In comment 14224407 M.S. said:
Quote:

...if we are picking #9 on Draft team.

This team is worthy of a Top 5 pick.
Those wins against ambulatory squads limping on the field behind their backup QBs and had this site worked up in a playoff frenzy probably cost them 3-4 draft spots a piece. May have cost them a chance at a blue chipper.
Drew Is there for us......  
Carl in CT : 12/18/2018 10:29 am : link
We shouldn’t take him.
RE: RE: Will be really shitty...  
The_Boss : 12/18/2018 10:32 am : link
In comment 14224552 UberAlias said:
Quote:
In comment 14224407 M.S. said:


Quote:



...if we are picking #9 on Draft team.

This team is worthy of a Top 5 pick.

Those wins against ambulatory squads limping on the field behind their backup QBs and had this site worked up in a playoff frenzy probably cost them 3-4 draft spots a piece. May have cost them a chance at a blue chipper.


Yep. Mullens, Daniels, and Sanchez say hello.
RE: Man look at all those crappy, mediocre  
Zeke's Alibi : 12/18/2018 11:29 am : link
In comment 14224376 Simms11 said:
Quote:
records! Half the league is below .500! Parity is what owners wanted and they got it. Hell, an 8-8 team can make the playoffs these days and that’s not a rarity. If the Giants somehow won just 2 more games they’d be in the hunt!


Please tell me this is tongue in cheek.
With the 17th pick....  
Archer : 12/18/2018 12:04 pm : link
Could you imagine that after this lousy year, the Giants could win their last two games and end up with the 17th pick.

That would be so like the Giants.


You cannot anticipate obtaining a great player with the 17th pick. And with no third round pick the prospects of improving through the draft are greatly diminished.
Indy is going to destroy the Giants on Sunday  
Matt in SGS : 12/18/2018 12:55 pm : link
you can chalk that one up as a loss. I could see a repeat of the massacre in Arizona last year before Christmas as the template.

Everything hinges on if Dallas needs that last game or not. If Dallas needs that last game, they will win. If they don't, they will play all their scrubs and the Giants will beat them by 3 TDs.
RE: With the 17th pick....  
Milton : 12/18/2018 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14224759 Archer said:
Quote:
You cannot anticipate obtaining a great player with the 17th pick.
You can't anticipate obtaining a great player, especially when you get outside the top five. And once you get outside the top five, the difference between your odds of landing a plus player with the seventh pick and the seventeenth pick isn't especially significant. The best defensive player from last year's draft could turn out to be Darius Leonard and he went in the second round.
RE: Indy is going to destroy the Giants on Sunday  
Milton : 12/18/2018 1:13 pm : link
In comment 14224854 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
you can chalk that one up as a loss. I could see a repeat of the massacre in Arizona last year before Christmas as the template.
Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Giants win.

Quote:
Everything hinges on if Dallas needs that last game or not. If Dallas needs that last game, they will win. If they don't, they will play all their scrubs and the Giants will beat them by 3 TDs.
I think if the Cowboys are resting starters the Giants may use that as their reasoning for resting starters of their own, in other words, could be a good game for Lauletta to get the start.
RE: RE: Indy is going to destroy the Giants on Sunday  
Mike from SI : 12/18/2018 1:54 pm : link
In comment 14224893 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14224854 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


you can chalk that one up as a loss. I could see a repeat of the massacre in Arizona last year before Christmas as the template.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Giants win.



Quote:


Everything hinges on if Dallas needs that last game or not. If Dallas needs that last game, they will win. If they don't, they will play all their scrubs and the Giants will beat them by 3 TDs.

I think if the Cowboys are resting starters the Giants may use that as their reasoning for resting starters of their own, in other words, could be a good game for Lauletta to get the start.


Dude Indy is gonna f***ing destroy us. Their offense outclasses our D and their defense outclasses our O if no Beckham.
RE: RE: Indy is going to destroy the Giants on Sunday  
Matt in SGS : 12/18/2018 2:01 pm : link
In comment 14224893 Milton said:
Quote:
In comment 14224854 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


you can chalk that one up as a loss. I could see a repeat of the massacre in Arizona last year before Christmas as the template.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Giants win.



Quote:


Everything hinges on if Dallas needs that last game or not. If Dallas needs that last game, they will win. If they don't, they will play all their scrubs and the Giants will beat them by 3 TDs.

I think if the Cowboys are resting starters the Giants may use that as their reasoning for resting starters of their own, in other words, could be a good game for Lauletta to get the start.


I don't see it with the Colts. For the Giants, their spirited sprint to try to win 8 straight and the brief window of the playoffs fizzled last week. From a human standpoint, the Giants are on their last road trip of the year, nearing the end of the season, and have nothing to play for. This is when you usually see guys making business decisions out there not wanting to get hurt and looking to just play out the string.

The Colts are at home and need a win. The Giants defense has not faced a passer like Luck since they got Brees early in the season. Luck is going to rip the Giants apart.

And as for the Cowboys, I don't think you will see Lauletta out there again, and possibly not in a Giants uniform again. Him getting moved to #3 last week was not a good sign. Eli will play the whole way unless he gets hurt. All you'll see out of the ordinary is Ogletree will get an offensive snap doing something because he won his bet with Shurmur. Otherwise you'll see the Giants maybe feed Barkley to reach some stat milestone and they pick up their tents for the season.
RE: RE: Man look at all those crappy, mediocre  
Simms11 : 12/18/2018 2:34 pm : link
In comment 14224672 Zeke's Alibi said:
Quote:
In comment 14224376 Simms11 said:


Quote:


records! Half the league is below .500! Parity is what owners wanted and they got it. Hell, an 8-8 team can make the playoffs these days and that’s not a rarity. If the Giants somehow won just 2 more games they’d be in the hunt!



Please tell me this is tongue in cheek.


Of course
You mean  
Doomster : 12/18/2018 2:46 pm : link
RE: RE: Indy is going to destroy the Giants on Sunday
Matt in SGS : 2:01 pm : link : reply


I don't see it with the Colts. For the Giants, their spirited sprint to try to win 8 straight and the brief window of the playoffs fizzled last week. From a human standpoint, the Giants are on their last road trip of the year, nearing the end of the season, and have nothing to play for. This is when you usually see guys making business decisions out there not wanting to get hurt and looking to just play out the string.

like Jenkins did weeks ago?
TB ahead of us because...  
Jooch : 12/18/2018 3:40 pm : link
of SOS? I must have missed something and I apologize if it was already talked about. I thought the tiebreaker used to be head to head regardless of anything? And because the Giants beat Tampa it wouldn't matter what other tie breakers came into play...in the case of identical reg season records Tampa would pick ahead of us by virtue of us beating them. When did it change or am I just going crazy? Could have sworn the first tie breaker was ALWAYS head to head first?
RE: Josh Allen, ER Kentucky  
Rjanyg : 12/18/2018 3:43 pm : link
In comment 14224390 WillVAB said:
Quote:
.


Yes please
RE: RE: RE: Indy is going to destroy the Giants on Sunday  
Rjanyg : 12/18/2018 3:46 pm : link
In comment 14224983 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
In comment 14224893 Milton said:


Quote:


In comment 14224854 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


you can chalk that one up as a loss. I could see a repeat of the massacre in Arizona last year before Christmas as the template.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Giants win.



Quote:


Everything hinges on if Dallas needs that last game or not. If Dallas needs that last game, they will win. If they don't, they will play all their scrubs and the Giants will beat them by 3 TDs.

I think if the Cowboys are resting starters the Giants may use that as their reasoning for resting starters of their own, in other words, could be a good game for Lauletta to get the start.



I don't see it with the Colts. For the Giants, their spirited sprint to try to win 8 straight and the brief window of the playoffs fizzled last week. From a human standpoint, the Giants are on their last road trip of the year, nearing the end of the season, and have nothing to play for. This is when you usually see guys making business decisions out there not wanting to get hurt and looking to just play out the string.

The Colts are at home and need a win. The Giants defense has not faced a passer like Luck since they got Brees early in the season. Luck is going to rip the Giants apart.

And as for the Cowboys, I don't think you will see Lauletta out there again, and possibly not in a Giants uniform again. Him getting moved to #3 last week was not a good sign. Eli will play the whole way unless he gets hurt. All you'll see out of the ordinary is Ogletree will get an offensive snap doing something because he won his bet with Shurmur. Otherwise you'll see the Giants maybe feed Barkley to reach some stat milestone and they pick up their tents for the season.


Matt,

You really think the Lauletta experiment is over already? 1 bad decision and 1 quarter of bad football?
RE: TB ahead of us because...  
ray in arlington : 12/18/2018 3:58 pm : link
In comment 14225109 Jooch said:
Quote:
of SOS? I must have missed something and I apologize if it was already talked about. I thought the tiebreaker used to be head to head regardless of anything? And because the Giants beat Tampa it wouldn't matter what other tie breakers came into play...in the case of identical reg season records Tampa would pick ahead of us by virtue of us beating them. When did it change or am I just going crazy? Could have sworn the first tie breaker was ALWAYS head to head first?


Tiebreaking for draft order is not the same as tiebreaking for playoffs or division standings. First tiebreak for draft order is SOS.

From NFL ops:

==========================

In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick.

If the teams have the same strength of schedule, their records against common opponents in their division or conference are applied, if applicable. If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, ties will be broken by a coin flip.
=========================================

I have been asked why the NFL does it this way. I think the answer is that they have to have a computer program and expert(s) to figure out the tiebreakers that you see for the playoffs. For draft order, there are often ties of 4-5 teams including both AFC and NFC teams which would be decided by some strange method anyway. With SOS they don't have to bother doing this for draft order, they just have the machine spit out an SOS for each team at the end of the year and don't have to answer questions about "if so and so beats so and so what is the Giants draft position."



RE: RE: TB ahead of us because...  
Jooch : 12/18/2018 4:49 pm : link
In comment 14225151 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
In comment 14225109 Jooch said:


Quote:


of SOS? I must have missed something and I apologize if it was already talked about. I thought the tiebreaker used to be head to head regardless of anything? And because the Giants beat Tampa it wouldn't matter what other tie breakers came into play...in the case of identical reg season records Tampa would pick ahead of us by virtue of us beating them. When did it change or am I just going crazy? Could have sworn the first tie breaker was ALWAYS head to head first?



Tiebreaking for draft order is not the same as tiebreaking for playoffs or division standings. First tiebreak for draft order is SOS.

From NFL ops:

==========================

In situations where teams finished the previous season with identical records, the determination of draft position is decided by strength of schedule — the aggregate winning percentage of a team’s opponents. The team that played the schedule with the lowest winning percentage will be awarded the higher pick.

If the teams have the same strength of schedule, their records against common opponents in their division or conference are applied, if applicable. If the divisional or conference tiebreakers are not applicable, ties will be broken by a coin flip.
=========================================

I have been asked why the NFL does it this way. I think the answer is that they have to have a computer program and expert(s) to figure out the tiebreakers that you see for the playoffs. For draft order, there are often ties of 4-5 teams including both AFC and NFC teams which would be decided by some strange method anyway. With SOS they don't have to bother doing this for draft order, they just have the machine spit out an SOS for each team at the end of the year and don't have to answer questions about "if so and so beats so and so what is the Giants draft position."




Makes sense. Thank you for the clarification. I was just like having a "Wait a second here moment...I thought it was always head to head." Funny though, so theoretically the Super Bowl champion, through this method, could actually have a shot at picking 31st even though they ended up being the best team in football that year? Is that correct? Or do they have a separate method for the Super Bowl winners and losers?
RE: RE: RE: TB ahead of us because...  
ray in arlington : 12/18/2018 4:55 pm : link
In comment 14225215 Jooch said:
Quote:



Funny though, so theoretically the Super Bowl champion, through this method, could actually have a shot at picking 31st even though they ended up being the best team in football that year? Is that correct? Or do they have a separate method for the Super Bowl winners and losers?


According to the ops site, the Super Bowl loser picks 31 and the Super Bowl winner picks 32. That is fixed.


After yesterday's loss  
Leg of Theismann : 12/18/2018 5:26 pm : link
I have no problem losing the last 2. I was going to say would be nice to spoil it for the Cowboys in week 17, but it is looking more and more like that game is actually going to be meaningless for them. It would be kind of silly if the Cowboys have the 4 seed locked up going into week 17 and rest their starters against the Giants, but the Giants DON'T rest their starters and play to win the game, thereby damaging their draft position. If the Cowboys have #4 seed locked up, they would have even more incentive to rest their starters in that game so as to see the Giants worsen their 2019 draft position.

What would be everyone's opinion on that week 17 game if the Cowboys lock up #4 and rest their starters. Would you still say trot the starters out there for a full 60 min and win the game? I'd be more in favor of seeing the backups play and letting the chips fall where they may.
RE: After yesterday's loss  
Big Blue '56 : 12/18/2018 5:46 pm : link
In comment 14225254 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
I have no problem losing the last 2. I was going to say would be nice to spoil it for the Cowboys in week 17, but it is looking more and more like that game is actually going to be meaningless for them. It would be kind of silly if the Cowboys have the 4 seed locked up going into week 17 and rest their starters against the Giants, but the Giants DON'T rest their starters and play to win the game, thereby damaging their draft position. If the Cowboys have #4 seed locked up, they would have even more incentive to rest their starters in that game so as to see the Giants worsen their 2019 draft position.

What would be everyone's opinion on that week 17 game if the Cowboys lock up #4 and rest their starters. Would you still say trot the starters out there for a full 60 min and win the game? I'd be more in favor of seeing the backups play and letting the chips fall where they may.


I hear you, but HCs rarely, if ever, think that way. Resting their starters or not, the Cowboys will face a team that will go all out to win. They don’t think like fans with all the permutations involved, imo
RE: RE: Josh Allen, ER Kentucky  
WillVAB : 12/18/2018 8:36 pm : link
In comment 14224516 BIG FRED 1973 said:
Quote:
In comment 14224390 WillVAB said:


Quote:


.

I saw a new mock on twitter from Jon Ledyard that had Allen going two to the Raiders


We’ll see. He’d be a perfect fit on the Giants. Reminds me of Khalil Mack.
Could you imagine a year like this one where we maybe finish  
Jimmy Googs : 12/18/2018 8:51 pm : link
with 6 wins and pick #14 in the draft??

What a joke we are as a franchise. We cannot even suck properly.

I wonder how many backup QBs we will get to take advantage of in 2019 and screw up that draft opportunity...
RE: Could you imagine a year like this one where we maybe finish  
WillVAB : 12/18/2018 9:38 pm : link
In comment 14225441 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
with 6 wins and pick #14 in the draft??

What a joke we are as a franchise. We cannot even suck properly.

I wonder how many backup QBs we will get to take advantage of in 2019 and screw up that draft opportunity...


Probably a lot of wins vs backup QBs since most of the league is injury prone mobile QBs.
Can’t wait for an update  
5BowlsSoon : 12/23/2018 4:08 pm : link
This was a good week for those who want a higher draft pick.
Looks like 7  
5BowlsSoon : 12/23/2018 4:12 pm : link
Jax and Atl move over us. However, not sure about SF and Jets.
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