NFT: Tuesday Mets Talk - Rajai Davis

To the Cardinals
Andrew Miller - ( New Window )

In comment 14228117 SJGiant said:

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To the Cardinals Andrew Miller - ( New Window )

I should say close to signing with Cardinals

In comment 14227689 DanMetroMan said:

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Gio, Holland, Pomeranz remain

Prediction: Angels idea of a rotation made up entirely of third and fourth starters won't work out well for them,

wanted to dump Felix Hernandez for nothing (and eat some cash - like half of the $27M he's owed).

He's got a NTC, and is entering the last year of his deal, so no idea if he'd do it or if they would, but he's been an unmitigated disaster the past few years - to the point he could be DFA'd. Velocity loss doesn't lie.

but...I think if he were a 5th starter he'd maybe pitch with less pressure and would fit in well and who knows, maybe he gets semi-healthy over the winter. Hard to believe without injury he became such a horse shit pitcher at 30.

I'm still surprised nobody is ever willing to just put him at 1B or DH vs. 2B. If we could have traded Alonso to Seattle for Diaz instead of Kelenic, Murphy on a cheap deal to play 1B would have made every bit as big of an impact as Cano hitting 3rd. And Mcneil could have kept his position.

I�d love to add him. Would really fill some needs of ours in a few ways. Underrated player.

In comment 14228158 Eric on Li said:

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I'm still surprised nobody is ever willing to just put him at 1B or DH vs. 2B. If we could have traded Alonso to Seattle for Diaz instead of Kelenic, Murphy on a cheap deal to play 1B would have made every bit as big of an impact as Cano hitting 3rd. And Mcneil could have kept his position.

only 33 years old on a 2 year deal

no terms yet on Miller. Don't understand why we are trading for Minor's 2/18m when there are still good pitchers on the open market who won't require a trade. Only reason I can think of is they are trying to send Lagares' 9m or Vargas 10m the other way...

and Ill never ask for a pitcher (rotation or pen) again for the foreseeable future. I'd probably feel safe moving Lugo back to the rotation, Vargas to long man, Minor as my lefty late inning guy out of the pen. Yowzers.

Diaz
Leclerc
Familia
Minor
Gsellman
D Smith
Vargas

Noice.

alone is going to cost a Peterson or Kay type, there is an argument for doing it but the price will be huge.

can block a trade to the Mets but not the Phillies or Brewers (2 other interested suitors)

2 for 15, great move by Beane

In comment 14228152 pjcas18 said:

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wanted to dump Felix Hernandez for nothing (and eat some cash - like half of the $27M he's owed). He's got a NTC, and is entering the last year of his deal, so no idea if he'd do it or if they would, but he's been an unmitigated disaster the past few years - to the point he could be DFA'd. Velocity loss doesn't lie. but...I think if he were a 5th starter he'd maybe pitch with less pressure and would fit in well and who knows, maybe he gets semi-healthy over the winter. Hard to believe without injury he became such a horse shit pitcher at 30.

Please tell that to Brady ..we could work on that over Christmas if need be .

In comment 14228206 spike said:

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In comment 14228158 Eric on Li said: Quote: I'm still surprised nobody is ever willing to just put him at 1B or DH vs. 2B. If we could have traded Alonso to Seattle for Diaz instead of Kelenic, Murphy on a cheap deal to play 1B would have made every bit as big of an impact as Cano hitting 3rd. And Mcneil could have kept his position. only 33 years old on a 2 year deal

Mariners would not of excepted Allonzo as one of the two pieces....They don�t value him as high as Dunn Not close to JK

In comment 14228314 capone said:

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In comment 14228152 pjcas18 said: Quote: wanted to dump Felix Hernandez for nothing (and eat some cash - like half of the $27M he's owed). He's got a NTC, and is entering the last year of his deal, so no idea if he'd do it or if they would, but he's been an unmitigated disaster the past few years - to the point he could be DFA'd. Velocity loss doesn't lie. but...I think if he were a 5th starter he'd maybe pitch with less pressure and would fit in well and who knows, maybe he gets semi-healthy over the winter. Hard to believe without injury he became such a horse shit pitcher at 30. Please tell that to Brady ..we could work on that over Christmas if need be .

Is he injured? How did his velocity did so much as 31 years old?

Are they going to ride it out with him or DFA him?

I'd take a chance if it was just money, and it's just one year.

In comment 14228315 capone said:

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In comment 14228206 spike said: Quote: In comment 14228158 Eric on Li said: Quote: I'm still surprised nobody is ever willing to just put him at 1B or DH vs. 2B. If we could have traded Alonso to Seattle for Diaz instead of Kelenic, Murphy on a cheap deal to play 1B would have made every bit as big of an impact as Cano hitting 3rd. And Mcneil could have kept his position. only 33 years old on a 2 year deal Mariners would not of excepted Allonzo as one of the two pieces....They don�t value him as high as Dunn Not close to JK

No one values Alonso that highly, especially for an NL team, except some Mets fans.

I don't recognize the majority of these twitter accounts, only the "beat and blog" section, but this is like the BBI douchebag of the year list.

Is anyone from BBI on here?

Is Madson pitching in 2019? If so I'd be all about adding him to the Mets pen. AV on his FB in 2018 was still 95.8... at 38! #Mets

In comment 14228388 DanMetroMan said:

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Is Madson pitching in 2019? If so I'd be all about adding him to the Mets pen. AV on his FB in 2018 was still 95.8... at 38! #Mets

he's from CA so I assume he and Dodgers will just reunite at the end of the offseason but I agree, he'd be a good type to add as a middle reliever.

liking Kelenic better I totally understand but Dunn is surprising. Guess we'll see how he does this year.

really hate that they are continuing to cheap out on the fringes of the roster. I'd love nothing more than for them to shut me up and sign Ottavino or Robertson, but I can't stand the way this org always prematurely closes for business in areas that could be further strengthened.

Each of the last 3 seasons they entered ST with just 2 backend relievers who had been very good the year prior. Only in 2016 did both of those guys stay healthy all year and the wheels of the BP not fall off. The Yankees have had the best BP in baseball for years running now and the formula isn't complicated - 3 proven end of game relievers (Betances, Robertson, Chapman).

and then injuries happen and they blame the injuries for their lost opportunities.

Jeff Passan
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@JeffPassan
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The trade that sent Jurickson Profar to the Oakland A�s is part of a three-way deal that also includes the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. There are multiple major leaguers and minor leaguers involved, plus a draft pick and international $.

$11m, $11.5m, $12m option/$2.5m buyout. vesting at 110 games in 19, 20

Sit down with Law. Some decent tidbits.
Link - ( New Window )

Btw.

In comment 14228517 DanMetroMan said:

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$11m, $11.5m, $12m option/$2.5m buyout. vesting at 110 games in 19, 20

great signing - I admit there's a lot of risk in his injuries/age, but hopefully they can get Robertson or Ottavino for a similar contract. Would imagine both will end up without a guaranteed 3rd year.

In comment 14228528 ZGiants98 said:

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Sit down with Law. Some decent tidbits. Link - ( New Window )

Good interview. Law is pretty balanced about the system and I completely agree with him about not getting good value for Kelenic. If they'd have just traded him and Dunn alone you could have probably gotten someone more valuable than Diaz, and we obviously know Cano had negative value. For example, you trade Kelenic/Dunn for Realmuto and then you go out and sign 2 relievers instead of 1, keep Swarzak/Bruce and hope they contribute. Payroll isn't much different right now and in the future you don't have $60m less on the books 2020-2022. I'd have preferred signing Ramos to just about any Realmuto trade, so if it were me I'd have just signed Ramos/Familia/Miller and kept the prospects to get something I couldn't have gotten through FA - like Kluber.

1 thing I do take issue with is the overhyping of Kelenic and undervaluing of Gimenez. They are separated by 10 months in age and both are so young it is anybody's guess how they physically age/develop. I guess you can love Kelenic's swing and makeup that much, but Gimenez' is 3 full levels ahead of him, performing well against older players, and winning "best tools" across multiple categories within those leagues. Players can have upside without being projected to hit a lot of home runs. Kelenic seems to be in that category to some degree too.

Oakland receive: Profar

Texas receive: prospects Brock Burke, Eli White, Kyle Bird, Yoel Espinal and international bonus pool money

Rays receive: reliever Emilio Pagan, prospect Rollie Lacy and a competitive balance pick.

what it's worth Gimenez was one of the prospects most dinged with DRC+, I'm not saying the stat is right but there are those who think his upside is limited based on his physicality. But he's still young.

unlikely he'll have any Mets in his top 100.

In comment 14228607 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14228528 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Sit down with Law. Some decent tidbits. Link - ( New Window ) Good interview. Law is pretty balanced about the system and I completely agree with him about not getting good value for Kelenic. If they'd have just traded him and Dunn alone you could have probably gotten someone more valuable than Diaz, and we obviously know Cano had negative value. For example, you trade Kelenic/Dunn for Realmuto and then you go out and sign 2 relievers instead of 1, keep Swarzak/Bruce and hope they contribute. Payroll isn't much different right now and in the future you don't have $60m less on the books 2020-2022. I'd have preferred signing Ramos to just about any Realmuto trade, so if it were me I'd have just signed Ramos/Familia/Miller and kept the prospects to get something I couldn't have gotten through FA - like Kluber. 1 thing I do take issue with is the overhyping of Kelenic and undervaluing of Gimenez. They are separated by 10 months in age and both are so young it is anybody's guess how they physically age/develop. I guess you can love Kelenic's swing and makeup that much, but Gimenez' is 3 full levels ahead of him, performing well against older players, and winning "best tools" across multiple categories within those leagues. Players can have upside without being projected to hit a lot of home runs. Kelenic seems to be in that category to some degree too.

Law has always been about upside. As of now Gimenez is good at everything but not elite. That doesn't mean that he won't become a great player eventually and surprise at the plate. Nobody and I mean nobody besides Chipper Jones thought that Johan Camargo was going to hit enough at the plate to be more than a utilityman. His power was a major concern also. Only 15 home runs in his entire minor league career (in 548 games). Last season for Atlanta 19 homeruns in just 134 games. Gimenez is a much better prospect than Camargo was. As Gimenez adds to his frame the power might improve.

I don't disagree with you in some respect, but it's Gimenez' projected ceiling that lessens his value.

I hear many people compare Gimenez to Ruben Tejada.

Look at Tejada's 19 year old season in AA, it's eerily similar to Gimenez'

In fact, in many regards Tejada had a better 19 year old season in AA at 19.

Kelenic I have heard Mark Kotsay (as a floor).

Of course it's a lot projection, but sometimes the projection isn't guessing, it's predictable.


Ruben Tejada debuted in Queens as a 20 year, to very little fanfare because he wasn't expected to be a star.

Flores was more well regarded than Tejada.

Just saying I'd have parted ways with Gimenez in a heartbeat before Kelenic and it could work out to be 100% wrong, but based on what I have read (which is really all us fans have to go on) the gap is large between Kelenic and Gimenez from a prospect ceiling standpoint. I hope it works out opposite.

-Sign Harper
-Peterson, Plawecki, + for Leclerc and Minor
-Dietrich and Jones to fill out the bench

117 wins

:)

Rangers have nobody at catcher and Plaw has 4 arbitration years, so he is cost controlled.

Mets probably throw in some minor (no pun intended) prospects like Rhame and Hanhold

I don�t see why Minor would want to stay in Texas with a team that has just signaled rebuild

I think this one actually could happen

In comment 14228626 pjcas18 said:

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I don't disagree with you in some respect, but it's Gimenez' projected ceiling that lessens his value. I hear many people compare Gimenez to Ruben Tejada. Look at Tejada's 19 year old season in AA, it's eerily similar to Gimenez' In fact, in many regards Tejada had a better 19 year old season in AA at 19. Kelenic I have heard Mark Kotsay (as a floor). Of course it's a lot projection, but sometimes the projection isn't guessing, it's predictable. Ruben Tejada debuted in Queens as a 20 year, to very little fanfare because he wasn't expected to be a star. Flores was more well regarded than Tejada. Just saying I'd have parted ways with Gimenez in a heartbeat before Kelenic and it could work out to be 100% wrong, but based on what I have read (which is really all us fans have to go on) the gap is large between Kelenic and Gimenez from a prospect ceiling standpoint. I hope it works out opposite.

I'm a very big fan of comparisons - here are 3 relevant points re: Tejada:

1. Gimenez is by all accounts a hard worker. Had Tejada simply been that, he might have turned out to be a good player.

2. As limited as Tejada's talent was, his age 21 and 22 MLB seasons were each indisputably better than Rosario's first 2 years, and we all know how limited Tejada was compared to Rosario. Instead of developing as he aged he regressed (see point #1) but it's easy to forget that he was a promising piece at one point.

3. All Gimenez' tools have been graded out better by scouts and played out better than Tejada's on the field. Tejada was never a highly ranked prospect. BA only had him as the 9th best prospect in the Mets system after his very comparable to Gimenez age 19 season because it appeared very fluky based on his previous track record whereas Gimenez has hit at every level. Athletically speaking Gimenez almost stole 40 bases last year, Tejada never stole 20.

Now add back in the fact that Gimenez' age 19 season was the best we've seen in our system since Reyes. Better than both Rosario and Tejada. I can certainly accept that he may not have the ceiling Rosario or Reyes, but if the floor is a harder working, more athletic version of Ruben Tejada that's already a higher ceiling that people realize. That's better than what Rosario has shown to date. There were only 9 shortstops in all baseball this year who hit league average or better with positive impact D (according to FG overall D metric). Seems like a much much safer bet that Gimenez will be able to do that than pegging Kelenic to any outcome good or bad since he has just barely gotten his feet wet in pro ball.

age 19 season are very similar - I mean almost clones of each other, no clue how you can claim some incredible age 19 season for Gimenez, would you elaborate?

For one, Gimenez spent the bulk of it in a lower level tha Tejada (A+: STL vs AA BIN) here are their age 19 seasons:

Gimenez: .281/.349/.409 OPS: .756, an even .100 wRC+ in AA

Tejada: .289/.351/.381 OPS: .732, an .106 wRC+ in AA

Stolen bases is the only area Gimenez has a marked advantage, but Tejada was no slouch with 19 SB's vs 3 CS's. Gimenez also had a higher BABIP, so maybe you could expect some regression with a larger sample size.

I don't think anyone claimed Tejada had Gimenez' speed though, no idea about athleticism, but most projected Tejada as a light hitting defensive SS as I recall.

I just don't see anyone going gaga over Gimenez' age 19 season. Which is good, not great and not markedly better than Tejada who spent a shitload more time in AA than Gimenez as a 19 year old.

Anyway, my point isn't to compare stat by stat Gimenez and Tejada, it's my opinion about why people view Kelenic differently.

I didn't make this up, I've read multiple scouts comp Gimenez to Tejada and Kelenic to much higher end players.

That's it. Many (most?) scouts view Kelenic as having a much higher ceiling. Scouts aren't always right and I hope this is one they get wrong.

Mike Puma
‏Verified account @NYPost_Mets

Mets are receiving "significant" interest in Travis d'Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. Hearing it's possible one will be dealt for a backup infielder or outfielder. � Also, A.J. Pollock and Mike Minor not so likely right now.
3:57 PM - 21 Dec 2018

But Gimenez has the higher floor because he played against a higher level of competition.

rumor seemed very odd. He's owed 19 million, Vargas likely doesn't make a good RP and Minor did better out of the pen.

In comment 14228759 Ira said:

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But Gimenez has the higher floor because he played against a higher level of competition.

Possibly true, but in a rebuild, many times teams value the ceiling, not the floor. If the floor (and ceiling are close and the floor is Tejada)

Mets don't believe in McNeil, nice. Typical.

In comment 14228782 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Mets don't believe in McNeil, nice. Typical.

this what you were referring to?


Mike Puma
‏Verified account @NYPost_Mets

Also heard today: The Mets aren�t completely sold on Jeff McNeil yet, but fear trading him and watching him become Daniel Murphy or Justin Turner.
4:25 PM - 21 Dec 2018

In comment 14228749 pjcas18 said:

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age 19 season are very similar - I mean almost clones of each other, no clue how you can claim some incredible age 19 season for Gimenez, would you elaborate? For one, Gimenez spent the bulk of it in a lower level tha Tejada (A+: STL vs AA BIN) here are their age 19 seasons: Gimenez: .281/.349/.409 OPS: .756, an even .100 wRC+ in AA Tejada: .289/.351/.381 OPS: .732, an .106 wRC+ in AA Stolen bases is the only area Gimenez has a marked advantage, but Tejada was no slouch with 19 SB's vs 3 CS's. Gimenez also had a higher BABIP, so maybe you could expect some regression with a larger sample size. I don't think anyone claimed Tejada had Gimenez' speed though, no idea about athleticism, but most projected Tejada as a light hitting defensive SS as I recall. I just don't see anyone going gaga over Gimenez' age 19 season. Which is good, not great and not markedly better than Tejada who spent a shitload more time in AA than Gimenez as a 19 year old. Anyway, my point isn't to compare stat by stat Gimenez and Tejada, it's my opinion about why people view Kelenic differently. I didn't make this up, I've read multiple scouts comp Gimenez to Tejada and Kelenic to much higher end players. That's it. Many (most?) scouts view Kelenic as having a much higher ceiling. Scouts aren't always right and I hope this is one they get wrong.

Yea I don't disagree with what you've seen - I've seen it too. My point outside of your post was that I think that conventional wisdom is missing context and underselling Gimenez. Tejada's numbers were a major outlier for him whereas that's not the case with Gimenez. I don't know if Kelenic is being oversold or not, just haven't seen enough of him to know.

In comment 14228809 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 14228782 DanMetroMan said: Quote: Mets don't believe in McNeil, nice. Typical. this what you were referring to? Mike Puma ‏Verified account @NYPost_Mets Also heard today: The Mets aren�t completely sold on Jeff McNeil yet, but fear trading him and watching him become Daniel Murphy or Justin Turner. 4:25 PM - 21 Dec 2018

Their track record with believing in their own is absolutely awful.


Again.. PRE-Cano deal

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
Nov 7
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I can�t see any way Cabrera is signing without being promised the second base job and BVW heavily hedged when asked about McNeil at second so well there you go


How many teams don't pencil in Jeff McNeil at 2b given what he did? Now Cano is a big player but they were ready to go with other inferior options as well


Jarrett Seidler
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Nov 26
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McNeil for a partially subsidized Cano would be extremely Mets

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Jarrett Seidler
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I am starting to think they I should�ve just given into my impulse to write McNeil as a 6

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
Jun 1
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The Mets buried Nimmo as the fifth outfielder all April after signing Bruce to permanently block him, and even sent him down even though he was good last year there was obvious huge changes to his swing in spring. Let�s not give them too much process credit here.

Jarrett Seidler
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@jaseidler
May 30
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The idea that the Mets are benching Conforto again to get Bautista in against a righty and creating a Bautista/Nimmo/Bruce outfield in front of a bad extreme flyballer in a must win game is just something


Lets not pretend the Mets track record is strong here

Jeff McNeil wasn't just great for 67 games.. he was a MONSTER all season.

AA... 182 wRC+ (would have led the league if eligible), AAA 165 (also would have led the league). He was wire to wire awesome, with people who previously had doubts (Paternostro, Seidler etc) acknowledging the change, how he was hitting ROCKETS in the minors etc. Normal teams believe in guys like that until they have reason not to

honestly a normal team moves Frazier into the utility role. 1b, 2b, 3b (Brodie claimed Frazier could play some 2b). McNeil was that guy. He pound for pound matched Robinson Cano in 2018, the guy we are all "excited" about adding.

In comment 14228836 DanMetroMan said:

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honestly a normal team moves Frazier into the utility role. 1b, 2b, 3b (Brodie claimed Frazier could play some 2b). McNeil was that guy. He pound for pound matched Robinson Cano in 2018, the guy we are all "excited" about adding.

100% agree. Mcneil showed very high end contact skills and pretty good athleticism. Those are 2 things that should be exciting going forward. His babip was high, but not crazily so. Nimmo's babip was similar. We are excited about Nimmo because he also showed a very high end skill with his ability to draw walks, he hustles, and he has some athleticism you can believe in beyond just drawing walks. Those are guys you give time to let fail. Selling them for better players, sure maybe that would make sense, benching either for Todd Frazier doesn't make any sense.

as much as I hated Nimmo in a deal for Realmuto at least the point was getting a premier player at his position. I DID NOT want to do that. But there was zero argument Realmuto was better than what we had and if you don't believe in Nimmo then maybe you don't care about the years of control. Frazier is a mediocre player, a nice locker room guy, he's solid. He's also a guy who could retire tomorrow and the Mets would be a-ok.

I'd actually be STUNNED if McNeil doesn't hit. Only concern I would have would be durability because he's been dinged before but I have more confidence in McNeil hitting than almost anyone on the team. Conforto, Cano, Ramos... Nimmo might be the better overall offensive player thanks to the walks but pure hitter McNeil is easily near the top.

don't love it, but get it. Those are top players at their respective premium positions and 2B and COF are easier to fill elsewhere. But to sideline Mcneil in favor of a vet who has 1 year left on his contract and had a down year last year just doesn't make sense. Moving him off 2nd for an overpaid veteran approaching his late 30's was already nonsensical enough, now we can't even give him a shot to win the 3B job? What about the 1B job if he outhits Alonso in ST? We know he will almost definitely be light years better in the field.