NFT: Tuesday Mets Talk - Rajai Davis

not simply penciling in McNeil, keep the heat on him to not get complacent, but holy shit, at least let him compete for a starting job. Don't get in a situation where you block him b/c of money or something else.

I know Flores' career didn't wind up how many of us hoped or anticipated, but the Mets did him no favors.

Same so far with the aforementioned Nimmo.

They've almost already blocked Alonso because where does 37, 38, 39 and 40 year old Cano go?

Pretty sure those legs aren't play second base everyday.

In comment 14228866 pjcas18 said:

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not simply penciling in McNeil, keep the heat on him to not get complacent, but holy shit, at least let him compete for a starting job. Don't get in a situation where you block him b/c of money or something else. I know Flores' career didn't wind up how many of us hoped or anticipated, but the Mets did him no favors. Same so far with the aforementioned Nimmo. They've almost already blocked Alonso because where does 37, 38, 39 and 40 year old Cano go? Pretty sure those legs aren't play second base everyday.

Agreed all around. Just let the best guys play and let everyone compete. It's not that complicated. honestly I wouldn't even have an issue letting Mcneil try out CF. Who knows. Just don't make decisions around a mediocre vet like Frazier. That only makes everyone look bad when he's hitting .185 on May 1st. I actually think he will have a bounce back year but why make the decision on who to start right now?

to me that is the crucial part. In my world Frazier doesn't get a 6 week audition to fail.

Who knows how many games that might cost the Mets. 1, 2, 3? Could be the difference between wild card or not, or shit it's December, could be the difference between the division or not.

1 game in April is just as valuable as 1 game in September.

I'd do what you said, start the best players and ideally it works out that Frazier is your backup, not the other way around, and not a situation that when Frazier fails you then put McNeil in when you're 5 games out of the wild card and clinging to meaningful baseball by the all-star break.

I think all fans obviously want the team to win first and foremost, but I also think most fans would accept losing with youth (though that's relative with McNeil) more than losing with mediocre veterans like Frazier.

.

“They were clearly a top 10 system for me before the trade”
- Keith Law, December 2019

PAY UP DAN lol

In comment 14229175 Shecky said:

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“They were clearly a top 10 system for me before the trade” - Keith Law, December 2019 PAY UP DAN lol

I saw that and immediately thought of you. Where do you fall in the kelenic/dunn ranking discussion? I think Law is still overly high on Dunn, as has been his MO with high draft picks he likes. I like Kelenic a lot, but I still fail to see where he's on some other level from Vientos or Gimenez.

In comment 14229239 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14229175 Shecky said: Quote: “They were clearly a top 10 system for me before the trade” - Keith Law, December 2019 PAY UP DAN lol I saw that and immediately thought of you. Where do you fall in the kelenic/dunn ranking discussion? I think Law is still overly high on Dunn, as has been his MO with high draft picks he likes. I like Kelenic a lot, but I still fail to see where he's on some other level from Vientos or Gimenez.

I called Kelenic Harper-lite,the good with the bad, draft time. I love that old school scrappy player. One of his first pro games he was caught looking for a K. He was PISSED, cursing up a storm on way to dugout. Within 30 seconds he came out to talk to the coaches about what his approach was, etc and seeing what he did wrong and what to improve I LOVE THAT!!!!!

Dunn is good, in my opinion is boom or bust. Something clicks and he’s filthy. It doesn’t click he’s quadA or good setup arm

Kelenic has a chance to be special. My personal low end on him is an8-10 year career that people undervalue him. His upside is just special, unique.

In comment 14229239 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14229175 Shecky said: Quote: “They were clearly a top 10 system for me before the trade” - Keith Law, December 2019 PAY UP DAN lol I saw that and immediately thought of you. Where do you fall in the kelenic/dunn ranking discussion? I think Law is still overly high on Dunn, as has been his MO with high draft picks he likes. I like Kelenic a lot, but I still fail to see where he's on some other level from Vientos or Gimenez.

I know draft picks don't always pan out, but why do you think Kelenic was #6 overall draft pick, Vientos went in the 2nd round, and Gimenez was the #15 ranked IFA in his class?

Most people feel like Kelenic has a higher upside than the others.

May not pan out that way, but think think that's pretty clear.

for Diaz. Now here's what's confusing to me about how he's viewed - it's not that he's not a good prospect but how he's viewed relative to the rest of the mets system (which has a lot of other high pedigree position players who have shown some very impressive tools in their own right). When he was drafted he was considered a good pick but more on the safer side for a HS player vs. crazy upside, pretty unanimously. It's not an end all indicator but he signed under slot and went 6th for a reason. Callis comp'd him to Mark Kotsay. Here was Law's pre-draft write-up on him in June (had him 6th overall on his big board):

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He has a good, consistent swing that produces plus raw power, and he's at least fast enough to go out as a center fielder. I believe he'll hit for average too, but it's tough to say that with confidence, given the poor competition he has faced this spring.

That opinion has appeared to shift upwards (like Law stating that he's a top 20-30 prospect in all of baseball) but some of the more localized prospect writers (like the guys from baseball prospectus who follow the mets system a little more closely) have been a little more muted relative to the rest of the met system. His debut in pro ball last year was perfectly acceptable and it definitely appears his make up has won scouts over in a big way (as shecky's thoughts indicate). Here's what BP said about Kelenic in his updated Mets top 10 a couple weeks ago:

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For the record, Jarred Kelenic would’ve ranked fourth before the trade, between Alonso and Mauricio (Gimenz #1, Alonso #2, Mauricio #3, Newton #4, Vietos #5). Dunn would’ve ranked fifth out of the prospects, between Mauricio and Newton. We’ll have their full write-ups in the Seattle list, so long as the Mariners actually keep them. —Jarrett Seidler

So my question with Kelenic is specifically in comparison with other similarly aged guys in the system like Vientos (half a year younger) and Gimenez (half a year older) who also have blue chip pedigrees and have flashed impressive tools at premium positions. In Gimenez' case his makeup has also been similarly praised. I wish we still had all 3 I just personally am curious as to what specifically separates Kelenic from those 2.

In comment 14229256 Shecky said:

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In comment 14229239 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14229175 Shecky said: Quote: “They were clearly a top 10 system for me before the trade” - Keith Law, December 2019 PAY UP DAN lol I saw that and immediately thought of you. Where do you fall in the kelenic/dunn ranking discussion? I think Law is still overly high on Dunn, as has been his MO with high draft picks he likes. I like Kelenic a lot, but I still fail to see where he's on some other level from Vientos or Gimenez. I called Kelenic Harper-lite,the good with the bad, draft time. I love that old school scrappy player. One of his first pro games he was caught looking for a K. He was PISSED, cursing up a storm on way to dugout. Within 30 seconds he came out to talk to the coaches about what his approach was, etc and seeing what he did wrong and what to improve I LOVE THAT!!!!! Dunn is good, in my opinion is boom or bust. Something clicks and he’s filthy. It doesn’t click he’s quadA or good setup arm Kelenic has a chance to be special. My personal low end on him is an8-10 year career that people undervalue him. His upside is just special, unique.

Thanks Shecky. Knowing that's how you feel about him, would you have given him up for Diaz?

how the sixth pick has done at the major league level. I picked 2008-2012 because it's recent, but far enough in the past so that they all had time to make the majors. IMO, two of the five are top players (Wheeler and Rendon), two are busts (Skipworth and Loux) and one is a pretty good player (Almora). Here's the list -

2008 - Kyle Skipworth
2009 - Zach Wheeler
2010 - Barrett Loux
2011 - Anthony Rendon
2012 - Albert Almora

the same breath he says he's not huge on Gimenez, doesn't mention Alonso (has hated on him in the past). BA has him #27. They dropped 17 spots based on 2 players? Law is ALWAYS the high man on the Mets in recently years. We know this. What has changed? LOVED Dom, LOVED Cecchini post draft, had Dunn I think 60th mid-season, Fangraphs didn't have him top... 131. Not getting into a Saturday morning semantics argument but Law has been unusually high on the Mets in the past.

quite honestly you can't both site him and then take issue with him not being high on Gimenez or Alonso because they are the the consensus "top" names in the system.

Rookie maximums for at-bats (130), games pitched (30) or innings (50) in the major leagues"

If the 2 leaders are within 5% of each other, or the leader has less than 30% there will be a run-off between the top 2. If a run-off results in a tie the tiebreaker will be vote total in the previous poll, we will continue to "go back" in the polls until there is a clear leader.

*Jeff McNeil is ineligible
*Chris Flexen is ineligible
*Drew Smith is ineligible
*Tyler Bashlor is ineligible

1) Andres Gimenez (SS) AA 19/37 votes- 51%
2) Peter Alonso (1B) AAA 24/36 votes- 67%
3) Ronny Mauricio (SS) Kingsport 12/33-36%
4) Mark Vientos (3b) Kingsport 16/31-52%
5) David Peterson (LHP) A+ 21/31- 68%
6) Franklyn Kilome (RHP) AA 20/33-61%
7) Thomas Szapucki (LHP) A 18/32-56%
8) Shervyen Newton (SS) Kingsport 12/30-40%, Run-off with Anthony Kay 17/33-52%
9) Anthony Kay (LHP) AA 18/26-69%
10) Simeon Woods-Richardson (RHP) Kingsport 12/30-40%
11) Luis Santana (2B) 15/26-58%
12) Will Toffey (3B) 10/29-34%, run-off with Cecchini 15/27-56%
13) Gavin Cecchini (2b) 14/26-46%
14) Francisco Alvarez (C) 9/26-35%
15) Dez Lindsay (OF) 7/18-39%
16) Tony Dibrell (RHP) 9/23-39%
17) Jordan Humphreys (RHP) 7/21-33%, Run-off with Nido 18/24-75%
18) Ross Adolph (OF) 6/25-24%, run-off with Nido 18/25-72%
19) Adam Hill (RHP) 4/26-15%, Run-off with Nido/Crismatt 11/26-58%
20) Junior Santos (RHP) 6/28-21%, Run-off with Nido 11/20-55%
21) Tomas Nido (C) 10/23-43%
22) Luis Guillorme (SS) 9/24-38%
23) Adrian Hernandez 6/26-23%, run-off with Wahl/Cortes 8/15-53%
24) Carlos Cortes (2b) 8/21-38%
25) Steven Villines (RHP) 4/16 25%, Run-off with Thompson/Wahl 9/23-39%
26) David Thompson (3b) 8/23-35%
27) Ali Sanchez (C) 9/17-53%
28) Bobby Wahl (RHP) 11/25-44%
29) Eric Hanhold (RHP) 7/21-33%, run-off 7/20-35%
30) Luis Carpio (IF) 4/18-22%, runoff with Uriarte 9/14-64%
31) Stanley Consuegra (OF) 4/20-20%, runoff with Uriarte/Valdez 6/17-35%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
32) Juan Uriarte (C) 4/19-21%
33) Freddy Valdez (OF) 7/17-41%
34) Daniel Zamora (LHP) 3/17-18%, run-off with Montes De Oca 10/12-83%
35) Jaylen Palmer (??) 3/12-25%, run-off with Montes de Oca/Vilera 9/16-56%
36) Ryley Gilliam (RHP) 5/22-23%, run-off with Manea 8/16-50%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
37) Matt Winaker (OF) 4/22-18
38) Kyle Dowdy (RHP) 6/20-30%, run-off with Vilera 9/12-75%
39) Jaison Vilera (RHP) 6/17-35%

I love filthy animals. Keith Miller May have been my favorite player of all time lol. I would trade Kelenics talent, his prospect for a great player 10/10 times but it’s rare to have the makeup and talent he has combined. Now with time hat said, Kelenic types typically have high injury risk...

But...

I’m a huge fan of a dominant pen, but not a dominant reliever. Just my opinion, and I know it’s a minority opinion. Diaz has a chance to be in that rarified air of consistent, dominant end of game shut down guy he’s young, controllable (in my opinion, closer is the least valuable ‘controlable’ Asset since their arb pay is grosslyinflataaed compared to any other position)

Anyway, I’m rambling. This is one of the toughest trades to say you like or don’t like. Too many pieces. Cano. His contract. The $20mm. Bruce/Swarz. Their contracts. Diaz. The prospects Dunn/Kelenic. There’s simply too much to say if you liked the trade or not. But Brodie wanted/needed to make a statement. Knew the first deal he made he needed to have other orgs scratch their heads wondering if he knows what he’s doing. Excite the fan base. EXCITE JEFF. He had to make this trade, and Seattle was NOT making this trade without Kelenic... lol, damn I rambled...

very curious about Valdez and Alvarez. IFA catchers have a high bust rate but reports were excellent when he signed. Valdez... 1 tool guy according to most reports but huge kid.

not even being snarky but I'm not even clear how the Mets were able to create a farm system with this little OF depth. 40 picks per season, they didn't trade away multiple OF prospects/depth. It seems almost impossible to pull off

In comment 14229316 Shecky said:

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I love filthy animals. Keith Miller May have been my favorite player of all time lol. I would trade Kelenics talent, his prospect for a great player 10/10 times but it’s rare to have the makeup and talent he has combined. Now with time hat said, Kelenic types typically have high injury risk... But... I’m a huge fan of a dominant pen, but not a dominant reliever. Just my opinion, and I know it’s a minority opinion. Diaz has a chance to be in that rarified air of consistent, dominant end of game shut down guy he’s young, controllable (in my opinion, closer is the least valuable ‘controlable’ Asset since their arb pay is grosslyinflataaed compared to any other position) Anyway, I’m rambling. This is one of the toughest trades to say you like or don’t like. Too many pieces. Cano. His contract. The $20mm. Bruce/Swarz. Their contracts. Diaz. The prospects Dunn/Kelenic. There’s simply too much to say if you liked the trade or not. But Brodie wanted/needed to make a statement. Knew the first deal he made he needed to have other orgs scratch their heads wondering if he knows what he’s doing. Excite the fan base. EXCITE JEFF. He had to make this trade, and Seattle was NOT making this trade without Kelenic... lol, damn I rambled...

It was a good ramble though. I agree with just about all of it. Every piece in the deal was high variance so I guess we just wait and see.

In comment 14229314 DanMetroMan said:

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quite honestly you can't both site him and then take issue with him not being high on Gimenez or Alonso because they are the the consensus "top" names in the system.

That's a very fair point. I guess my argument isn't so much that I'm opposed to not being high on the other guys, but rather curious about why (especially when his own opinion seems to have evolved a lot in a short period of time).

there are literally just too many guys, too many variables, and too much unpredictability. 20-30-40 year pro scouts get it wrong the majority of the time and individually they're able to focus on scouting a much smaller pool of players too.

To not be high on alonso and say “hats off to the kid he proved me wrong” than to go out on a limb first and say you think he’s legit

me preface this by saying I like Law a lot and he's probably my top guy. But I have heard recently he attends fewer and fewer games that aren't showcases. He has a kid, other interests, not knocking a man for living his life but I do think its relevant.

In comment 14229342 Shecky said:

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To not be high on alonso and say “hats off to the kid he proved me wrong” than to go out on a limb first and say you think he’s legit

Generally speaking the scouting industry does not "buy" RH 1b and for the most part they are right. The list isn't long. The list doens't have to be long for Alonso to be good but it's betting on the side of recent history which seems "Safe"

mean it's like betting against Jose Ramirez. He's not the norm. He's a star and amazing but that can be true and still doubt a guy like Gimenez and USUALLY you'll be right.

"their guys". They plant a flag in the guys they like and stick with them for a long time, then usually have a justifiable reason why things didn't pan out. It's like college football recruiting, the 5 star recruits get a ton of hype but at the end of the day just as many no hype 3/4 star guys end up as first round draft picks. In 2015 there were 112 HS prospects higher ranked than Saquon Barkley, 12 of them RB's.

In comment 14229348 DanMetroMan said:

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mean it's like betting against Jose Ramirez. He's not the norm. He's a star and amazing but that can be true and still doubt a guy like Gimenez and USUALLY you'll be right.

Exactly - the law of averages rewards skepticism more than optimism.

In comment 14229346 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 14229342 Shecky said: Quote: To not be high on alonso and say “hats off to the kid he proved me wrong” than to go out on a limb first and say you think he’s legit Generally speaking the scouting industry does not "buy" RH 1b and for the most part they are right. The list isn't long. The list doens't have to be long for Alonso to be good but it's betting on the side of recent history which seems "Safe"

You said it much better than I sir, well put

say this... Seidler takes hits for being negative and trolls attack him because of his intertwining his political views on twitter BUT he and Jeff P do attend a LOT of games. So there is some added value to them.

In comment 14229349 Eric on Li said:

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"their guys". They plant a flag in the guys they like and stick with them for a long time, then usually have a justifiable reason why things didn't pan out. It's like college football recruiting, the 5 star recruits get a ton of hype but at the end of the day just as many no hype 3/4 star guys end up as first round draft picks. In 2015 there were 112 HS prospects higher ranked than Saquon Barkley, 12 of them RB's.

Law is known for his stubbornness in refusing to admit he was wrong. It took him several years into his career before he admitted that he was wrong on Chris Sale.

In comment 14229353 DanMetroMan said:

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say this... Seidler takes hits for being negative and trolls attack him because of his intertwining his political views on twitter BUT he and Jeff P do attend a LOT of games. So there is some added value to them.

Whatever happened to Rob Neyer -- was he forced to retire in shame over his "Jose Reyes is the worst everyday player in baseball" hot take from early 2006????

In comment 14229436 jpkmets said:

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In comment 14229353 DanMetroMan said: Quote: say this... Seidler takes hits for being negative and trolls attack him because of his intertwining his political views on twitter BUT he and Jeff P do attend a LOT of games. So there is some added value to them. Whatever happened to Rob Neyer -- was he forced to retire in shame over his "Jose Reyes is the worst everyday player in baseball" hot take from early 2006????

It looks like he's just an author now

1 year - $3.515 m.
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