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Why “just wait and take one next year” isn’t always the best

ajr2456 : 1/2/2019 8:41 am
An old article, but always a good read.
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I agree with this sentiment  
ron mexico : 1/2/2019 8:47 am : link
when making moves this off season and draft, they shouldn't even consider the 2020 draft. I think its really foolish to plan too far in advance. So much can change.
Yes if you think someone is a Franchise QB  
chuckydee9 : 1/2/2019 8:55 am : link
then you don't wait till next year or even next round.. just pick him up...
Why forcing a pick  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 8:57 am : link
is a bad idea should be the next one....
These people are delirious  
GoBlue6599 : 1/2/2019 8:59 am : link
Just draft a QB to in 2020.... like It is that easy
RE: These people are delirious  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 8:59 am : link
In comment 14243829 GoBlue6599 said:
Quote:
Just draft a QB to in 2020.... like It is that easy


Actually, it really can be.
So GMs flat out know when they are forcing a pick  
Jimmy Googs : 1/2/2019 9:03 am : link
on a QB?

If that’s the case then it should be very easy for DG to know who will be our next franchise guy...it may take 20 years but he will know.
Its pretty easy  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 9:09 am : link
if the player isnt value as a top 10 guy in this draft for us - you dont take him. Plenty of great players in this draft.
RE: RE: These people are delirious  
GoBlue6599 : 1/2/2019 9:17 am : link
In comment 14243832 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 14243829 GoBlue6599 said:


Quote:


Just draft a QB to in 2020.... like It is that easy



Actually, it really can be.

Sure it is and then if the Giants are 7-9 next season and pick 13 what should they do? Sure some team picking at the top of the draft will trade with the Giants.. What if those teams picking at the top of the draft need a QBs as well? Which most teams picking at the top of the draft do
And if we win 8 Games next year,  
TomMac : 1/2/2019 9:17 am : link
where will we be picking in the 20 draft? How much would we have to give up to get in the top five.
Giants in 2019  
giantstock : 1/2/2019 9:18 am : link
The Gmen in 2019 are going to be better near .500 assuming they pick up two OL Free agents and then draft a pass rusher along wiht other moves. That .500 record will cause them to be too far back to reaosnable trade up and get the top 4 QB's. Of if they do theyd ended up giving up so much for a team especially defense with god-awfuk talent.

You can;t rely on 2020 draft but on the flip side you can't force the 6th pick with a QB if you don't think he's near the others.
RE: Why forcing a pick  
NoPeanutz : 1/2/2019 9:23 am : link
In comment 14243827 dep026 said:
Quote:
is a bad idea should be the next one....

+1
RE: Its pretty easy  
Jimmy Googs : 1/2/2019 9:25 am : link
In comment 14243841 dep026 said
Quote:
if the player isnt value as a top 10 guy in this draft for us - you dont take him. Plenty of great players in this draft.


But a quality starting QB is presumably always worth a top 10 pick. So again easy to determine and not force...
If the Giants  
Marty866b : 1/2/2019 9:26 am : link
Like a quarterback in this draft but he is projected to go a bit lower in the 1st round they should pick him anyway. Can't predict the future of when we're going to select next year and who is going to be available at that time.
RE: If the Giants  
Britt in VA : 1/2/2019 9:29 am : link
In comment 14243877 Marty866b said:
Quote:
Like a quarterback in this draft but he is projected to go a bit lower in the 1st round they should pick him anyway. Can't predict the future of when we're going to select next year and who is going to be available at that time.


I'd rather trade up to take a QB that I coveted than reach for a QB that I was lukewarm on.
I think the point  
crick n NC : 1/2/2019 9:37 am : link
A lot of people are missing is that you choose your off-season path (design players, sign FA's, draft, staff changes) by what is available, instead of having a hard line mindset of "we're doing this no matter what". You don't eliminate the possibility of finding your qb, while at the same time not forcefully assigning a new qb just because.

Now another path is to get a qb in place (not a retread) for 2019 other than Manning to take a shot of uncovering an unknown. Now I see the point here, but my brain tells me it isn't quite as simple as getting an unknown and putting him in the seat of the most important position, maybe I am just over thinking this.

Anyway the point is hard line philosophies can be quite dangerous. Evaluation of data collection has to be done to point to the path to take. If it doesn't work out at least you researched the situation instead of ruling "this way or nothing".

I don't know enough to really have an opinion of the direction the team should take, and I think they may not know now either as there are variables that have yet to be known.
RE: RE: Its pretty easy  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 9:42 am : link
In comment 14243876 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
In comment 14243841 dep026 said


Quote:


if the player isnt value as a top 10 guy in this draft for us - you dont take him. Plenty of great players in this draft.



But a quality starting QB is presumably always worth a top 10 pick. So again easy to determine and not force...


Isnt a quality Edge rusher and RT worthy of a top 10 pick too?
Of course, but not even in the same zip code  
Jimmy Googs : 1/2/2019 9:56 am : link
of the value of a quality starting QB
I am not sure any of the QB’s being talked about is worthy  
Jim in Hoboken : 1/2/2019 9:57 am : link
of the #6 pick. So the plan is to go into 2020 draft and grab a QB in the, hopefully, the back half of the first round? It will be easier to accept that a QB is the BPA because Eli will likely be gone then? And the hope is that, with an improved roater around him, the new guy can hit the ground running in 2020?

Ok.
you can always trade up  
Chip : 1/2/2019 10:00 am : link
if you prefer the 2020 QBs.
RE: RE: RE: Its pretty easy  
chuckydee9 : 1/2/2019 10:01 am : link
In comment 14243910 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 14243876 Jimmy Googs said:


Quote:


In comment 14243841 dep026 said


Quote:


if the player isnt value as a top 10 guy in this draft for us - you dont take him. Plenty of great players in this draft.



But a quality starting QB is presumably always worth a top 10 pick. So again easy to determine and not force...



Isnt a quality Edge rusher and RT worthy of a top 10 pick too?


Not if a franchise QB is available. ER and RT aren't worth as much as a Franchise QB.. If you think someone is a Franchise QB then you don't worry about missing out on a RT or ER..
The mentality  
Daniel in MI : 1/2/2019 10:12 am : link
Of last year was correct. It’s not “would I take this guy at our spot this year” but would I take him there in any year. A weaker QB draft leads to reaches. As does falling in love with particular players.
RE: I am not sure any of the QB’s being talked about is worthy  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 10:14 am : link
In comment 14243946 Jim in Hoboken said:
Quote:
of the #6 pick. So the plan is to go into 2020 draft and grab a QB in the, hopefully, the back half of the first round? It will be easier to accept that a QB is the BPA because Eli will likely be gone then? And the hope is that, with an improved roater around him, the new guy can hit the ground running in 2020?

Ok.


You cant trade up? Hmm.. the eagles, chiefs, and other teams have done it from a far away position....
Professional scouts and NFL management know that the only  
PatersonPlank : 1/2/2019 10:15 am : link
thing worse than passing on a franchise QB is forcing a pick with your #1 on a QB even if he isn't the guy. That kills a franchise. Remember if Haskins and Jones don't grade out, the Giants can keep improving the team and get a QB in 2020, or trade for a guy like Carr. Its not like Eli is bad, he's bang average right now. The issue is the future not 2019.
Trade up!  
GiantSteps : 1/2/2019 10:22 am : link
When teams find THE guy, they give up a lot to get him, regardless of where they are in the draft lineup.

I haven't seen or heard of any QB in this class that's looking like THE guy, but it really does look like next year's class has more options. Why not build up the o line and everything on the defense and then do whatever it takes to get the QB next year, when there will ostensibly be more options?
Except ...  
Beer Man : 1/2/2019 10:37 am : link
the team is facing one of the weakest QB classes in my lifetime, and next year is shaping-up to be one of the deepest QB classes in my lifetime. As others have stated, the team should reach for a QB.
Look  
mdthedream : 1/2/2019 10:39 am : link
no one is saying force the pick. They are saying if there is a franchise QB in round 1 that we really like just take him.
RE: Except ...  
ajr2456 : 1/2/2019 10:56 am : link
In comment 14244021 Beer Man said:
Quote:
the team is facing one of the weakest QB classes in my lifetime, and next year is shaping-up to be one of the deepest QB classes in my lifetime. As others have stated, the team should reach for a QB.


Did you even read the article?
RE: Look  
chuckydee9 : 1/2/2019 11:03 am : link
In comment 14244025 mdthedream said:
Quote:
no one is saying force the pick. They are saying if there is a franchise QB in round 1 that we really like just take him.


Some of these guys simply can't accept that anyone in this draft is a legit QB.. and that if someone picks one its because of a reach.. they can't let go of Eli.. They probably said the same thing during 2016.. and Mahomes just put up 50 Tds..
RE: RE: Look  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 11:13 am : link
In comment 14244070 chuckydee9 said:
Quote:
In comment 14244025 mdthedream said:


Quote:


no one is saying force the pick. They are saying if there is a franchise QB in round 1 that we really like just take him.



Some of these guys simply can't accept that anyone in this draft is a legit QB.. and that if someone picks one its because of a reach.. they can't let go of Eli.. They probably said the same thing during 2016.. and Mahomes just put up 50 Tds..


Not one person is saying this. None. Nada. Zilch.
ajr, your narrative is old  
.McL. : 1/2/2019 11:40 am : link
You are desperate to replace Eli at any cost for 2019.

I read the article, and most of the QBs it talks about coming off the board in the first that were not early projections for the 1st were also failures.

So, yeah... Try again.
RE: ajr, your narrative is old  
ajr2456 : 1/2/2019 11:46 am : link
In comment 14244138 .McL. said:
Quote:
You are desperate to replace Eli at any cost for 2019.

I read the article, and most of the QBs it talks about coming off the board in the first that were not early projections for the 1st were also failures.

So, yeah... Try again.


I don’t think you understand the point of the article.
The reality is what it points out  
.McL. : 1/2/2019 11:48 am : link
Is that most QB classes are over hyped and teams tend to reach for failures.

Which is why it's critically important to wait for a guy you have a conviction about.

Its hard to have a conviction about Haskins since there is so little tape on him, and he NEVER faced adversity. He may turn into a great QB, but that is a huge risk to take with the #6 pick. Fail with that pick and you are stuck with a player that will cost you over 7mil per year guaranteed.

And it doesn't matter whether you have the #6 pick or trade up for it, the pick is always worth the same, and failure is always organizationally crushing.
RE: RE: ajr, your narrative is old  
.McL. : 1/2/2019 11:49 am : link
In comment 14244159 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 14244138 .McL. said:


Quote:


You are desperate to replace Eli at any cost for 2019.

I read the article, and most of the QBs it talks about coming off the board in the first that were not early projections for the 1st were also failures.

So, yeah... Try again.



I don’t think you understand the point of the article.

I understood the article just fine thank you. DO NOT PRESUME to tell me what I do and don't understand
The article was written to tell us that  
.McL. : 1/2/2019 11:51 am : link
QB development is not linear and its hard to evaluate these guys when they are just kids.

How that translates to YOUR Title is beyond me!
RE: The article was written to tell us that  
ajr2456 : 1/2/2019 12:04 pm : link
In comment 14244176 .McL. said:
Quote:
QB development is not linear and its hard to evaluate these guys when they are just kids.

How that translates to YOUR Title is beyond me!


Literally the part where it said one class was supposed to be loaded with 9 first round QBs two years before and then only two went.

Literally that fucking part.
Trading up is going to cost you the entire draft and next year’s one.  
Jim in Hoboken : 1/2/2019 12:24 pm : link
Nobody’s Trevor Lawrence in 2020, not Tua, Herbert, or Fromm. You comfortable giving up the farm for any of them?

We’ve backed ourselves into a corner, let’s see how we get out of it.
It's an interesting take  
Matt in SGS : 1/2/2019 12:47 pm : link
and they mentioned the 1983 draft in there. There is something about the 1983 draft which is worth noting here.

If you go back and watch the ESPN 30 for 30 documentary "From Elway to Marino" (which is amazing), they followed the story line of Elway going #1, his fight to not go to Baltimore and how rumors got Marino to drop to the Dolphins.

Anyway, our old buddy Ernie was prominently featured because he was the Colts GM at the time. One thing stuck out about the price tag to trade up to get the #1 pick or the rights to Elway after he was selected. He noted that all the scouts knew the 1984 draft had no QB prospects considered a first round pick. The only one drafted that year who would play like a first rounder was Boomer Esiason, but he slipped in the draft because people thought he was going to the USFL. He knew that he had a valuable trade chip and wasn't going to give it up for nothing. Of course, the Broncos owner went right to Irsay and did it over Ernie's head anyway a few weeks after the draft.

The point being, GMs look ahead to next year and what's available. That factors into their thought process. It has to factor into the Giants thought process too.
You can't trade up and use Philly as an example or last year  
giantstock : 1/2/2019 8:04 pm : link
without seriously damaging 2020 an 2021. Other teams such as the eagles did it because they also got a 1st rd pick in another trade.

Anyone who cites the Eagles is pulling your leg. They were able to trade Bradford and they got a 1st and a 4th. SO all they basically did is give up a 2nd round pick and a 3rd and a 4th while getting a compensatory 4th or 5th. That's not bad because they TRadED Bradford. They got a 1st rd pick for him.

How is this the same as the Gmen? It's not. SO please let's stop comparing Philly of the past to the recent.

And a couple other qb's in 2020 are considered better than this last class so you still will have to give up a ton.

I just think many are being naive in trading up and secondly how many years do you want to blow of Barkley? If you wait 2020 or even 2021 which someone had said then those young QB's won't be an impact until the very next year. Thus every year we lose a prime Barkley.

Good post  
Jimmy Googs : 1/2/2019 8:37 pm : link
.
8 of the last 10 QBs  
dep026 : 1/2/2019 8:45 pm : link
Taken in the first round were a part of a trade up.

Take any example you want.
RE: 8 of the last 10 QBs  
Jimmy Googs : 1/2/2019 9:03 pm : link
In comment 14245176 dep026 said:
Quote:
Taken in the first round were a part of a trade up.

Take any example you want.


But did they reach?
RE: It's an interesting take  
FStubbs : 1/2/2019 9:16 pm : link
In comment 14244316 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
and they mentioned the 1983 draft in there. There is something about the 1983 draft which is worth noting here.

If you go back and watch the ESPN 30 for 30 documentary "From Elway to Marino" (which is amazing), they followed the story line of Elway going #1, his fight to not go to Baltimore and how rumors got Marino to drop to the Dolphins.

Anyway, our old buddy Ernie was prominently featured because he was the Colts GM at the time. One thing stuck out about the price tag to trade up to get the #1 pick or the rights to Elway after he was selected. He noted that all the scouts knew the 1984 draft had no QB prospects considered a first round pick. The only one drafted that year who would play like a first rounder was Boomer Esiason, but he slipped in the draft because people thought he was going to the USFL. He knew that he had a valuable trade chip and wasn't going to give it up for nothing. Of course, the Broncos owner went right to Irsay and did it over Ernie's head anyway a few weeks after the draft.

The point being, GMs look ahead to next year and what's available. That factors into their thought process. It has to factor into the Giants thought process too.


Which is interesting because Steve Young came out in 1984 didn't he? Though he went USFL at first.
RE: 8 of the last 10 QBs  
ajr2456 : 1/2/2019 9:51 pm : link
In comment 14245176 dep026 said:
Quote:
Taken in the first round were a part of a trade up.

Take any example you want.


Chiefs - roster was pretty much set
Jets - had two second round picks to give up and we’re going from 6 to 3. No guarantee we have such a short trade up.
Chicago - moves from 3 to 2, again a short trade up.
Baltimore - moved up to the end of the first
Philly - giantstocks took care of this
Houston - was able to move up because Cleveland got the pick from Philly and was in acquire asset mode


Can you guarantee that a team above the Giants aren’t going to want the QBs? Can you guarantee a similar situation to one of the above? Can you guarantee all the QBs projected are going to be worth taking come next year? Can you guarantee teams with more assets won’t trade up for the QBs?

You simply can not bank on the possibility of being able to trade up and get someone a year from now. There are too many variables.
RE: RE: The article was written to tell us that  
.McL. : 1/2/2019 11:49 pm : link
In comment 14244198 ajr2456 said:
[quote] In comment 14244176 .McL. said:


Quote:


QB development is not linear and its hard to evaluate these guys when they are just kids.

How that translates to YOUR Title is beyond me!



Literally the part where it said one class was supposed to be loaded with 9 first round QBs two years before and then only two went.

Literally that fucking part. [/quote
Big stretch dude. 2020 is not 2014. I remember the 2014 draft, also the 2013 draft, and everybody was talking about how poor it was for QBs 2 years in a row. Just because some unnamed dude supposedly told Peter King a bunch of BS doesn't make your point. Try again.

Like I said, you have a personal narrative that is ANYBODY BUT ELI in 2019 whether it makes sense or not. Whether its a reach or not, whether its some retread backup from another team. You don't care as long as it's not Eli.

To be clear on my position. I have said this many times. I am not defending Eli, he is irrelevant because he is not going to be part of the solution. He certainly needs to be replaced. But he needs to be replaced with the right guy, not just any guy.
RE: RE: 8 of the last 10 QBs  
dep026 : 1/3/2019 7:48 am : link
In comment 14245287 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 14245176 dep026 said:


Quote:


Taken in the first round were a part of a trade up.

Take any example you want.



Chiefs - roster was pretty much set
Jets - had two second round picks to give up and we’re going from 6 to 3. No guarantee we have such a short trade up.
Chicago - moves from 3 to 2, again a short trade up.
Baltimore - moved up to the end of the first
Philly - giantstocks took care of this
Houston - was able to move up because Cleveland got the pick from Philly and was in acquire asset mode


Can you guarantee that a team above the Giants aren’t going to want the QBs? Can you guarantee a similar situation to one of the above? Can you guarantee all the QBs projected are going to be worth taking come next year? Can you guarantee teams with more assets won’t trade up for the QBs?

You simply can not bank on the possibility of being able to trade up and get someone a year from now. There are too many variables.


So basically what you are saying is trading up can be done quite easily. Thanks for proving my point.
Those trades were easier  
ajr2456 : 1/3/2019 7:54 am : link
Because those teams either had acquired assets or didn’t move up far. You can’t guarantee the Giants will have the assets or the position to. None of those teams said the draft before “well trade up next year”.

Once again Dep side stepping the point.
I’m not sidestepping shit  
dep026 : 1/3/2019 8:00 am : link
The chiefs jumped 17 spots but their team was set. Well we have two off seasons and the 2019 draft to do that. And the last time I checked... KC defense will be their downfall - so how is that set.

The jets traded up twice. The bills traded players and picks. It CAN. E done if you want to get it done.

Are we going to be that great next year that we can’t trade up? I mean everyone here is saying we are 7 wins at best next year. Shouldn’t be too hard to move up then.

Christ... this isn’t hard.
Jesus..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/3/2019 8:28 am : link
this is ponderous:

Quote:
Chiefs - roster was pretty much set
Jets - had two second round picks to give up and we’re going from 6 to 3. No guarantee we have such a short trade up.
Chicago - moves from 3 to 2, again a short trade up.
Baltimore - moved up to the end of the first
Philly - giantstocks took care of this
Houston - was able to move up because Cleveland got the pick from Philly and was in acquire asset mode


Can you guarantee that a team above the Giants aren’t going to want the QBs? Can you guarantee a similar situation to one of the above? Can you guarantee all the QBs projected are going to be worth taking come next year? Can you guarantee teams with more assets won’t trade up for the QBs?

You simply can not bank on the possibility of being able to trade up and get someone a year from now. There are too many variables.


You are so clueless you don't even realize that this supports the point that trade-ups happen and can be pulled off by a number of teams. You've just tried to rationalize each of them as basically being easy, yet want to make it seem that the Giants trading up would be very difficult.

I'm not sure the days of rational posting ever existed here, but it certainly wasn't such a clownshow.
RE: Jesus..  
.McL. : 1/3/2019 4:08 pm : link
In comment 14245524 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
this is ponderous:



Quote:


Chiefs - roster was pretty much set
Jets - had two second round picks to give up and we’re going from 6 to 3. No guarantee we have such a short trade up.
Chicago - moves from 3 to 2, again a short trade up.
Baltimore - moved up to the end of the first
Philly - giantstocks took care of this
Houston - was able to move up because Cleveland got the pick from Philly and was in acquire asset mode


Can you guarantee that a team above the Giants aren’t going to want the QBs? Can you guarantee a similar situation to one of the above? Can you guarantee all the QBs projected are going to be worth taking come next year? Can you guarantee teams with more assets won’t trade up for the QBs?

You simply can not bank on the possibility of being able to trade up and get someone a year from now. There are too many variables.



You are so clueless you don't even realize that this supports the point that trade-ups happen and can be pulled off by a number of teams. You've just tried to rationalize each of them as basically being easy, yet want to make it seem that the Giants trading up would be very difficult.

I'm not sure the days of rational posting ever existed here, but it certainly wasn't such a clownshow.


ajr has a narrative that says anybody playing QB besides Eli is a good thing. It doesn't matter if the Giants spend too high a draft pick on a player. Or too big a contract for some other teams's retread backup. As long as Eli is not the QB in 2019. He will twist just about anything to support that narrative even when it supports the opposite.
To finish my last post  
.McL. : 1/3/2019 4:21 pm : link
(I accidentally thumbed submit on my laptop)...

So this whole thread is ajr's attempt to further that narrative by saying it's not a good idea to wait for a better QB draft class...

So he picks an article from what was even at the time considered an unusually poor 2 year stretch for QBs. He find some article that has somebody supposedly quoting Peter King, who had an unnamed supposed source that over hyped a potential class. This was at a time when those classes were widely being panned by the vast majority of NAMED experts.

Overall, it's extremely LAME.

Just to make the point, after tis period, we got Goff and Wentz, then Mahomes, Trubitsky, Watson, and last years draft..
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