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Rick Gosselin: the 300 yd passer vs the 100 yard rusher

pjcas18 : 1/3/2019 4:46 pm
not correlative of anything IMO, just with the diminishing value of the running back I was surprised there were so many 100 yard rushing games.

My guess is at least some of the 300 yard passing games are a reflection of the fact your team is losing and you're forced to pass and maybe some 100 yard rushing games are because your team has a lead and you can afford to run more, but I haven't verified this.

Maybe a resurgence of the running game?

NFL is a copycat league.

Interesting at least to think about, IMO

Quote:

Rick Gosselin
& #8207; @RickGosselin9
7h7 hours ago

Those 300-yard passing games are important for NFL QBs, right? A QB needs to show he can win games with his arm. Except those 300-yard games are not an accurate barometer. There were 132 such games last season and QBs owning them posted a 64-66-2 record. Yep, a losing record.


Quote:


Rick Gosselin
& #8207; @RickGosselin9
3h3 hours ago

There were 108 individual 100-yard rushing games in the NFL this season. Their teams posted an 82-25-1 record in those games.


Quote:

Tony Dungy
& #8207;Verified account @TonyDungy
1h1 hour ago

Per @RickGosselin9 teams this year won 49% of the time when they had a 300 yd passer. They won 77% of the time they had a 100 yd rusher. Do you think the owners who are looking for new coaches know that? I doubt it& #128512;
Its more  
The Dude : 1/3/2019 4:59 pm : link
that the team isnt winning because of the 100 yard rusher, but the rusher is getting 100 yards because the team is winning
Adds credence to the Gettleman Mantra ...  
Manny in CA : 1/3/2019 4:59 pm : link

Run; Stop the run; Harass the QB.
running Is more important  
UConn4523 : 1/3/2019 5:05 pm : link
now than it was 5 years ago, I donít think itís even debatable. I donít think itís will stop being a passing league but teams with good running games have a massive advantage.
Pass to score  
K-Gun? Pop-Gun : 1/3/2019 5:06 pm : link
(Then)

Run to win.
That stat might be a little misleading  
Now Mike in MD : 1/3/2019 5:13 pm : link
in that if a team is leading they might be more likely to pound the ball more and kill the clock
We were 3-4 when Saquan Barkley rushed for 100 yards....  
MOOPS : 1/3/2019 5:17 pm : link
in a game. And the three wins were when we were playing against a backup QB (Bucs, Bears and Redskins).
How does that fit in to the stats?
Yay!  
PEEJ : 1/3/2019 5:22 pm : link
Analytics !
If you can stop the run and run the ball  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 1/3/2019 5:40 pm : link
you can control the game. Then you throw when you want to instead of because you have to.
RE: We were 3-4 when Saquan Barkley rushed for 100 yards....  
pjcas18 : 1/3/2019 5:46 pm : link
In comment 14246483 MOOPS said:
Quote:
in a game. And the three wins were when we were playing against a backup QB (Bucs, Bears and Redskins).
How does that fit in to the stats?


Like I said in the OP, I was not claiming the stat was correlative of anything, just interesting.

to your point though, the Giants were 0 - 5 when Eli threw for 300+ yards this year.

and historically playing against a backup QB hasn't meant much for the Giants. not sure I'd lean on that right now as a crutch to explain those wins.
There is plenty of information/analysis out there  
.McL. : 1/3/2019 5:55 pm : link
That shows both teams tend pass more than run in the early stages of games, or when the game is still close.

As the game goes on and one team builds a 2+ score lead, the leading team will run more to run out the clock, and the losing team will pass more to try and score quickly.

These are indisputable facts, fact that have not changed for over 25 years. Facts that remain constant now as they have in any earlier period, and if anything leans more towards the pass even in 2018.
The Cowboys beat us  
ChicagoMarty : 1/3/2019 6:13 pm : link
without Zeke Elliott.

Stopping the run was meaningless in that game which should provide a template to Giant brass as to what the team needs on the Defense.

Someone to defend against TEs running down the middle of the field to start with; an effective Edge Rusher to pressure qb's who have all day to find their second, third and/or fourth reads which are usually running through the middle zones of our D; LBs who can run sideline to sideline and cover e.g. the Cowboy lbs; Safeties who can pass cover particularly in the middle of the field.
Very well said, Peter ...  
Manny in CA : 1/3/2019 6:20 pm : link

If you run well, you keep the opposition's offense sitting on the bench, (where they can't hurt you) while you punish their defense into submission.

This is where Gettleman's 3rd factor comes into play. Their offense becomes desperate because they can't run on 1st and 2nd downs. (They're in 3rd and long all day) .

Now you "sic the dogs"on the QB (especially in the 4th quarter); GAME OVER !
Going 3-4 when SB ran for 100+  
CT Charlie : 1/3/2019 6:23 pm : link
is a lot better than 2-7 when he didn't.
To Marty's point ...  
Manny in CA : 1/3/2019 6:30 pm : link

IF you have a defensive line sacking the QB, 50 to 60 times a year, you can hide a heck of a lot of deficiencies in your "back seven" because that QB is running for his life all day, never mind trying to complete a pass !
RE: Going 3-4 when SB ran for 100+  
Mike in NJ : 1/3/2019 6:31 pm : link
In comment 14246546 CT Charlie said:
Quote:
is a lot better than 2-7 when he didn't.


Was just going to say the same thing, .428 win percentage when he ran for 100+ is a heck of a lot better than the .222 when he didnít.
RE: Its more  
widmerseyebrow : 1/3/2019 6:32 pm : link
In comment 14246461 The Dude said:
Quote:
that the team isnt winning because of the 100 yard rusher, but the rusher is getting 100 yards because the team is winning


Bingo
I'll repeat the stats I posted about our Giants  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/3/2019 7:04 pm : link
from another thread with some extra ones as they fit here too.

These are from before and after the bye because I don't think anyone can dispute the offense got much better after the bye and it was mostly about the run game. They started a better overall OL after the bye. Shurmer convinced Barkley to slightly alter his running style after the bye. They ran the ball a lot more after the bye.

As others have said, a solid run game helps the team more than a solid passing game even if it is a passing league. It helps keep the opposing team's offense off of the field longer while tiring their defense. It gives our defense more time to rest. As Barkley doesn't fumble the ball, it reduces the chances of turning the ball over. It allows you to pass because you want to and not because you have to. It forces the opposing team's defense to respect your options meaning they can't just pin their ears back and rush the passer. Nearly all QBs in the league are better in play-action, especially Eli.

18.8 point average before bye
27.4 point average after the bye

1-7 before the bye
4-4 after the bye

Lost games by an average of 8.57 points before the bye
Lost games by an average of 5.55 points after the bye

77.9 average rushing yards before the bye
128.4 average rushing yards after the bye

623 total rushing yards before the bye
1027 total rushing yards after the bye

32% of the plays were rushes before the bye
43% of the plays were rushes after the bye
41.18% is the NFL average for the year
43.96% is the NFL average of playoff teams for the year

5 rushing TDs before the bye
8 rushing TDs after they bye

275.4 average passing yards before the bye
230.5 average passing yards after the bye

9 passing TDs before the bye
14 passing TDs after the bye

Extra added stats below ----

31 sacks before the bye
16 sacks after the bye

6 interceptions before the bye
5 interceptions after the bye

I hate this stat but I know a lot of you all like it so I will do the right thing and post it all.
90.9 QBR before the bye
94.1 QBR after the bye

68.3% Completion percentage before the bye
63.2% Completion percentage after the bye

7.55 Throwing average before the bye
7.36 Throwing average after the bye

315 Passing attempts before the bye
261 Passing attempts after the bye

Alright, that's enough. I'm trying very hard to avoid the cherry-picking claims because I don't do that. Did I leave a stat out? This should show just how great a better run game is for a team even in a passing league.

Sorry I forgot to mention  
USAF NYG Fan : 1/3/2019 7:14 pm : link
that the Giants were missing their #1 WR (one of the league's best) for half of their games after the bye (4 games). I feel that's very relevant.

Again, 8 games before the bye and 8 games after the bye. An even split. A fair look at each half of the season.
He is implying causality that doesnít necessarily exist  
UberAlias : 1/3/2019 7:18 pm : link
That the 100 rushing yards caused the winning, rather then the teams were winning so they ran the ball to slow down the game. Alternatively, teams who are losing will throw in effort to catch up. Itís an inappropriate use of statistics.
There can be a correlation  
UberAlias : 1/3/2019 7:18 pm : link
Without causality.
132-108 is actually closer than i thought  
MetsAreBack : 1/3/2019 7:28 pm : link
I'm more surprised by the 'only' 132 big passing games this year than the 108 rushing games.

1-2 years ago I felt like the trend was much more disparate in terms of passing offense so as commissioner of my fantasy league, I changed bonus rushing to post 80 yards and kept passing bonuses at 300+. I'm guessing 80+ rushing is roughly in that 130-140 range, similar to QBs, so I'm on the right track (and there is still MUCH higher injury risk to RB than QB so i want RBs scoring more...).. but thanks for this statistic, we always adjust our scoring based on where the league is going.
RE: He is implying causality that doesnít necessarily exist  
MetsAreBack : 1/3/2019 7:33 pm : link
In comment 14246574 UberAlias said:
Quote:
That the 100 rushing yards caused the winning, rather then the teams were winning so they ran the ball to slow down the game. Alternatively, teams who are losing will throw in effort to catch up. Itís an inappropriate use of statistics.


Well, there's obviously a causality between running the ball well... and controlling clock, limiting opponent TOP, wearing out a defense... and winning. Its not ground-breaking. He did say individual 100+ yard games.. in blowouts, the starter is usually not getting 4Q carries...

But yeah, its also common sense that a lot of 300+ yard games are due to 4Q chucking in a lop sided game too.

I wish more of the talking heads would look at efficiency statistics, not yards and total output. Brady showed his age this year, so not really talking 2018 -- but one of the things that always impressed me in prior years about Brady was he'd throw for 250-280 yards on like 25 attempts so often...
This is why Total QBR is so much better a gauge of a QB  
TD : 1/3/2019 8:10 pm : link
So often many of the 300 yards come in garbage time or against a prevent D.

Nothing new in this stat - it shows correlation not causation.

You run more when youíre ahead. Pass more when youíre behind. Youíre also more likely to face prevent or deeper zone coverage when youíre behind, which allows you to rack up the yards in the short (dumpoff) and short-intermediate game.
RE: This is why Total QBR is so much better a gauge of a QB  
MetsAreBack : 1/3/2019 8:12 pm : link
In comment 14246607 TD said:
Quote:
So often many of the 300 yards come in garbage time or against a prevent D.

Nothing new in this stat - it shows correlation not causation.

You run more when youíre ahead. Pass more when youíre behind. Youíre also more likely to face prevent or deeper zone coverage when youíre behind, which allows you to rack up the yards in the short (dumpoff) and short-intermediate game.


The QB 300+ yards game does for sure. Not so sure about 100 yard individual rushing yard games. In blowouts, those guys are sitting on the bench in the 4Q.
To counter  
ajr2456 : 1/3/2019 8:13 pm : link
The four teams with byes -- those with the best shot of getting to are No. 1, 3, 4, and 5 in passing DVOA.

Wade Phillips spoke at a clinic about making getting to QB the first priority of his dline and coaching them to ďstop the run on the way to the passerĒ

Running the ball is obviously still important but passing the football and stopping the pass are becoming the two likeliest ways to win games.
RE: Its more  
Josh in the City : 1/3/2019 8:49 pm : link
In comment 14246461 The Dude said:
Quote:
that the team isnt winning because of the 100 yard rusher, but the rusher is getting 100 yards because the team is winning


This 1000x over. Itís much easier to run the ball when youíre winning a game. If youíre down by two scores and playing catch up youíre not going to be forcing the run. Many fans (and even some football people) simply donít get it.
Not sure about that, Josh ...  
Manny in CA : 1/3/2019 9:55 pm : link

If you're winning the game and trying to stall, you run. What do you think the opponent is going to ? Just let it happen - No. He will do everything he can to STOP the run.

He WANTS for you to put the ball in the air, so he has a chance to tip it, do something to get the ball back.
One more stat.  
MOOPS : 1/3/2019 11:05 pm : link
31 teams in the NFL were a combined 79-21-1 when they had a 100 yard rusher.
The Giants, the other team, was 3-4 when they had a 100 yard rusher.
The Giants, one team, accounted for 20% of the total losses in the league when they had a 100 yard rusher.
RE: The Cowboys beat us  
WillVAB : 1/3/2019 11:19 pm : link
In comment 14246538 ChicagoMarty said:
Quote:
without Zeke Elliott.

Stopping the run was meaningless in that game which should provide a template to Giant brass as to what the team needs on the Defense.

Someone to defend against TEs running down the middle of the field to start with; an effective Edge Rusher to pressure qb's who have all day to find their second, third and/or fourth reads which are usually running through the middle zones of our D; LBs who can run sideline to sideline and cover e.g. the Cowboy lbs; Safeties who can pass cover particularly in the middle of the field.


Disagree. It all comes down to the pass rush. Itís no coincidence that every team in the playoffs can rush the passer. Only a few can cover.
RE: To counter  
.McL. : 1/3/2019 11:31 pm : link
In comment 14246613 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
The four teams with byes -- those with the best shot of getting to are No. 1, 3, 4, and 5 in passing DVOA.

Wade Phillips spoke at a clinic about making getting to QB the first priority of his dline and coaching them to ďstop the run on the way to the passerĒ

Running the ball is obviously still important but passing the football and stopping the pass are becoming the two likeliest ways to win games.


On this we certainly agree.

just one more tidbit about run/pas ratio league wide.
here is a graph of R/P ratio through 2016.
in 2016 R/P ratio hi an all time high of 59.1% Pass to 40.9% run, in 2008 it dipped a bit to 56% pass to 44% run, but this year it went back p to 58.8 pass to 41.2 run... The trend towards passing shows no sign of abating despite what some would have you believe.


not 2008 it dipped  
.McL. : 1/3/2019 11:32 pm : link
it dipped in 2017!!!
Went back up in 2018
The trend to increaing passing shows no sign of abating?  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/4/2019 3:21 am : link
That looks like an asymptotic line that is close to approaching its upper limit of say 60% passing to 40% rushing, or thereabout.

It's not even remotely a linear function with a positive slope, which the term "non-abating" would imply.
Not that shocking, really.  
Britt in VA : 1/4/2019 6:39 am : link
.
Maybe we should draft another  
Jimmy Googs : 1/4/2019 7:04 am : link
good RB then in Rd 1...
Or maybe the world didn't end because we picked a great one....  
Britt in VA : 1/4/2019 7:08 am : link
last draft.
I'd like to see how this stat has changed over time  
jcn56 : 1/4/2019 7:39 am : link
My guess is it hasn't by much, and that this is just one of those obvious aggregate stats that don't tell much of a story (winning teams tend to run the ball more when they're ahead to milk a lead, etc.).

What I'd like to see is more situational, not so much to validate that a team with a good rushing attack can win, but to see how that rushing attack is architected and whether it drives the passing attack or vice versa (it seems the old adage that the run opens up the pass has flipped around a bit, with quick slants taking some snaps from runs). It's still just data, but I think it'd be more useful than just 'run a hundred yards and you'll win'.
Mcl  
ajr2456 : 1/4/2019 7:57 am : link
Iím curious about that sharp dip from 98 to 2000. Wonder what led to that.
RE: I'd like to see how this stat has changed over time  
ajr2456 : 1/4/2019 8:01 am : link
In comment 14246839 jcn56 said:
Quote:
My guess is it hasn't by much, and that this is just one of those obvious aggregate stats that don't tell much of a story (winning teams tend to run the ball more when they're ahead to milk a lead, etc.).

What I'd like to see is more situational, not so much to validate that a team with a good rushing attack can win, but to see how that rushing attack is architected and whether it drives the passing attack or vice versa (it seems the old adage that the run opens up the pass has flipped around a bit, with quick slants taking some snaps from runs). It's still just data, but I think it'd be more useful than just 'run a hundred yards and you'll win'.


Youíd need to adjust this stat for game flow and DVOA to really get any insight imo. Thereís too many variables in each of those 100 yard games to use it as a measuring stick.
In order for a running game to be successful for a team,  
DonnieD89 : 1/4/2019 8:26 am : link
you need a good defense. That is the reason why the Giants lost to the Cowboys. They lost, because the defense stunk.
There was a stat about  
section125 : 1/4/2019 8:36 am : link
pass attempts in which teams that had about 35 + attempts were usually the losing team.
I think attempts is more an indicator and yardage is a result of attempts.
RE: I'd like to see how this stat has changed over time  
Britt in VA : 1/4/2019 8:58 am : link
In comment 14246839 jcn56 said:
Quote:
My guess is it hasn't by much, and that this is just one of those obvious aggregate stats that don't tell much of a story (winning teams tend to run the ball more when they're ahead to milk a lead, etc.).

What I'd like to see is more situational, not so much to validate that a team with a good rushing attack can win, but to see how that rushing attack is architected and whether it drives the passing attack or vice versa (it seems the old adage that the run opens up the pass has flipped around a bit, with quick slants taking some snaps from runs). It's still just data, but I think it'd be more useful than just 'run a hundred yards and you'll win'.


And that's a major skill/tool to have in your arsenal. Being able to do that is a major, major asset.
RE: Or maybe the world didn't end because we picked a great one....  
Jimmy Googs : 1/5/2019 9:34 am : link
In comment 14246824 Britt in VA said:
Quote:
last draft.


No it definitely improved. Lets go with another...
I wonder how much of the increase  
Bill in UT : 1/5/2019 10:45 am : link
in passing plays id due to dink/checkoff passes that many coaches just think of as an extension of the run game? How many 5 yard passes did Namath or Marino throw?
RE: The trend to increaing passing shows no sign of abating?  
.McL. : 1/5/2019 11:55 pm : link
In comment 14246799 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
That looks like an asymptotic line that is close to approaching its upper limit of say 60% passing to 40% rushing, or thereabout.

It's not even remotely a linear function with a positive slope, which the term "non-abating" would imply.

Gee, starting from 1980, it looks pretty darn linear to me...
Sure there are some ups and downs, but the overall rate of throwing seems to be on a steady upward trend, that shows NO SIGN OF ABATING!!!
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