Off-Season is not over, but boy has it been an interesting departure from the ultra-conservative Alderson regime.
The thing about the Alderson regime, and I didn't dislike his approach given what he was handed, but he was incredibly risk averse, and he gave up some really good players for that reason. Giving up on Murphy and Justin Turner, especially Murphy when he was clearly coming on was just short-sighted;
waiting out the market for players like Frazier, Vargas, Bruce, and several average relievers seemed reasonable, but they weren't great players, they were value for their prices, but they weren't that good; not making a bold move like trading Harvey when you saw his decline (physically and mentally coming) and the patience they gave to bad players like James Loney, Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, John Mayberry, Hansel Robles; not to mention that idiotic signing of Michael Cuddyer. Was really annoying. They ran their baseball ops office scared. Their patience paid off in maximizing the return on some trades, but they also got lucky. No one knew Syndergaard would be Thor.
The current approach, has not been similar to the Omar regime which utilized Free Agency for bringing in talent, and got the benefit of having 2 super stars in their early 20s. The brodie regime seems very similar - and I know it has been mentioned - to the DiPoto model in Seattle. And DiPoto has had reasonable success, probably slightly above average. And I'm not sure of their many trades, who they really lost of any value that was better than letting Turner and Murphy walk.
For those crying about losing prospects, the only one I see as a huge loss is Kelenic. I have never been a big believer in Dunn, and some of these other prospects I don't see as anything more than future fringe players and lottery tickets.
Brodie's approach seems to be very present focused. He's identifying holes and he's filling those holes, and also trying to provide reasonable depth so that the disparity between a Syndergaard and deGrom - if they are lost for any period of time - is not PJ Conlon and Chris Flexen or some other nobody. He is being proactive, trying to find every last edge, and I think being active can be a good thing, especially when you're dealing with some low-stakes moves.
I'm not saying this is the best approach, but it's new, and worth exploring this as a business model.
So where are we now? strictly focusing on the Major League Level [/]b and accounting for players lost in trade, free agency, and last year's trading deadline. And adding trade acquisitions, free agency signings, promotions and returning injured players
[b] lost : Bruce, Swarzak, Plawecki, Reyes, Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Flores, Mesoraco, Blevins, Harvey (are any of these players really all that valuable?)
gained : Cano, Diaz, Ramos, Familia, d'Arnaud, Lagares, Broxton, JD Davis
We now basically have 8 Legit All Star Players : deGrom, Syndergaad, Wheeler, Cano, Conforto, Ramos, Cespedes (when healthy), and Nimmo
2 players who have previously made the all-star team: Frazier, Familia
2 up and coming players: Rosario, Alonso, Matz (if he can stay healthy)
5 {b] useful role players [/b]: McNeil, Rivera, d'Arnaud, Lugo, Gsellman, J.D. Davis, Broxton, Lagares
What are we really missing? Probably a loogy a big bat until Ces comes back.
This years team - if you can ignore the loss of kelenic - should be vastly improved from last year's team. We won 77 games with players likes of Nido, Oswalt, Vargas, Austin Jackson, Reyes, Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, and Harvey getting a ton of playing time.
I don't know about you, but my glass is half full and I'm buying on the 2019 Mets. I think we have a chance to be damn good.
The bullpen sucked last year and Diaz is a Stud
Keon Broxton, Jeff McNeil, TJ Rivera, Travis d'Arnaud, and JD Davis. Any one of them could be the next Max Muncy, but all can really hit or play great defense or both. And this doesn't preclude any future deal. Plus all these guys, with the exception of d'Arnaud are under control for at least 4 years, and no one is older than 30.
the rotation, the strength of the team, has ZERO depth and no one in the minors on the horizon to provide any help.
they need to sign a starter.
the bullpen needs one more piece. and a LOOGY.
and then hope for repeats/upward trajectory/improvement from Nimmo, Conforto, Rosario, McNeil and health.
big time health because the depth is non-existent.
one or two injuries could take the Mets from an 85 - 90 win team to a 70 win team. that's how bad the replacements are in some areas.
Familia was the closer until around the deadline so adding Diaz doesn't give you 5 - 10 wins IMO.
Mets Daddy
@MetsDaddy2013
51s52 seconds ago
When the Mets traded Kelenic and Dunn, I hated it, but I understood.
For the life of me, I cant understand the Mets trading Adolph, Santana, and Manea to the Astros.
The Mets are still only better than the Marlins
The Mets need to supliment what they have done
Despite all of the action, the Mets budget is less for next year than it was last year and that includes Cespedes insured contract
The Mets still need a center fielder a left handed relief pitcher, a power hitting third basement, and another starting pitcher
The team is not well conceived
I dont mind having Broxton as a 4th outfielder but they need a quality centerfielder
I like Cano but I fear that McNeil is not going to play as there doesnt appear to be a lot of playing time for him
As they are constructed they will be lucky to win 88 games, which will not win the division
Not to state the obvious but they need to win 90+ games and for that to happen a lot is riding on their evaluations to work out. Cano needs to defy the aging curve. Diaz needs to defy the year to year volatility of closers. Their 2 injury prone catchers need to stay healthy. The entire pitching staff needs to stay healthy because there's still minimal depth. The guys they just traded for need to be better than what they already had (Flores/Rivera). For a guy who said he wanted to minimize "ifs" it would have been a lot simpler to find a creative way to bag Harper or Machado as opposed to having Cano on the books for $20m per year until 2023.
one or two injuries could take the Mets from an 85 - 90 win team to a 70 win team. that's how bad the replacements are in some areas.
this is a more succinct version of my thoughts. I'd only add to it that they also hollowed out their farm so if they don't win they've set themselves back further than if they'd just repeated the alderson years and added some FA that didn't work out.
Either way we filled 4 major holes with all stars this offseason. Real talent, not guys like Frazier or Bruce who IMO were only supposed to help usher in the younger guys like Nimmo, Rosario, and Smith anyway.
Also, the last week was about adding depth, something Mets fans always cry we never accomplish. We upgraded our SP depth, our OF depth, and IF depth. I dont see a 5'6 Santana who's played a few months of professional ball a loss... I just dont. Some of those MMO guys like Mayer and Metsdaddy get a little attached to prospects and thats fine but that doesnt make the deals bad or wrong.
Sure Kelenic stung earlier but 30 teams out of 30 give up Kelenic for a 24 year old Diaz.
We are in a good place and our team is solid. It has some foundation to it now. Just need to fill out the roster with a couple more pieces. Still would like an OF and more bullpen help. Adding another SP would be a luxury and if it happens great.. if not Im fine rolling into 2019 with the best rotation in the NL again that now has Walker Lockett, Santiago, Lugo, Gesellman, Oswalt, Flexen, ect as depth now. It would be great to shed some salary too now if we can find takers for Frazier, Lagares, etc.
This gm has already said 2 things that are gonna end his regime very fast w media enlightenment in NY: they are the team to beat in NL EAST & he didnt want to rely in what ifs and potential (these deals are all that and then some)
Also can we retire the term LOOGY? Its the absolute worst.
This gm has already said 2 things that are gonna end his regime very fast w media enlightenment in NY: they are the team to beat in NL EAST & he didnt want to rely in what ifs and potential (these deals are all that and then some)
Also can we retire the term LOOGY? Its the absolute worst.
What is he supposed to say? He sees us a 2nd place team? Nothing wrong with confidence. I dont think anyone sees us as the best team in the NL obviously. Most probably see us as a WC team contender now that could be on the cusp of more with another piece or two.
10-15 prospects? Where are you getting that number? Some of those were used to acquire Diaz and Cano. Obviously those arent depth pieces. The Wahl deal? Really? We literally HAD to trade Wahl. We had WAY too many relievers on the 40 man. Even if we signed an OF to a roster spot we still probably end up cutting his ass. So what are we talking about really? The JD Davis deal who ALSO is a prospect only closer and more major league ready?? Not to mention, as uninspiring as they may be, we also brought back two prospects in the Plawecki deal. Sorry. I dont get it.
In fact JD Davis likely cracks our top 10 easy if he still had eligibility.
Guys like Santana and Adolph and Wahl are 100% replaceable and can be found in every draft.
We didn't trade away the world.
And why does JD Davis have to perform this year to justify it? Why can't he stay in Syracuse all year and rake and be ready if an injury hits? I dont think he has to do anything personally. We traded away a few 18 year old lottery tickets for a young guy a lot closer. That's about it.
I am not trying to crap on Davis. I see the possible upside. I still haven't given up on Dom Smith for that matter too. Either could be late bloomers. But to develop they have to get regular playing time. We probably should have been looking to trade Dom Smith for the type package Houston got today instead of adding another guy who needs at bats against MLB pitching we don't have available.
As for where he fits in our organization why are you so focused on him getting blocked by Frazier or Smith? Are Santana and Adolph blocked by Rosario and Nimmo?? I dont get it. We added a talented guy with upside who's close. That's it. He has options. He can go to Syracuse. Or maybe he finds an opening and runs with it.
*adjusted to modern baseball player offensive numbers: woundnt surprise to see smith turn into a .245 hitter w 20 HRs*
I still hold out hope he is a decent bench piece.
Kevin Mitchell comes to mind. Now if they could just assemble the starting lineup like 1986 😂
They left themselves zero margin for error. Just like recent years, if everything breaks right and guys stay healthy- they can compete.
And their payroll has been reduced. I thought Brodie was going to convince the Wilpons to spend? Instead they just bought a better mouthpiece than Sandy.
the reason fans (some) don't like this is because it appears to most the Mets did this to avoid spending money on free agents who could have filled the exact same role, with less risk, without costing prospects.
This is what people mean by half-assing things.
I hope Davis works out, but being 9 one year on the Astros top prospect list at 29 years old, doesn't make you that much more interesting than a guy who is 19 and is #11 on the Mets list.
Only thing I'll agree with is Santana had a lot of competition. Adolph didn't and was older and should/could have moved quickly through the Mets system.
but the point remains the same.
If the 2 leaders are within 5% of each other, or the leader has less than 30% there will be a run-off between the top 2. If a run-off results in a tie the tiebreaker will be vote total in the previous poll, we will continue to "go back" in the polls until there is a clear leader.
*Jeff McNeil is ineligible
*Chris Flexen is ineligible
*Drew Smith is ineligible
*Tyler Bashlor is ineligible
1) Andres Gimenez (SS) AA 19/37 votes- 51%
2) Peter Alonso (1B) AAA 24/36 votes- 67%
3) Ronny Mauricio (SS) Kingsport 12/33-36%
4) Mark Vientos (3b) Kingsport 16/31-52%
5) David Peterson (LHP) A+ 21/31- 68%
6) Franklyn Kilome (RHP) AA 20/33-61%
7) Thomas Szapucki (LHP) A 18/32-56%
8) Shervyen Newton (SS) Kingsport 12/30-40%, Run-off with Anthony Kay 17/33-52%
9) Anthony Kay (LHP) AA 18/26-69%
10) Simeon Woods-Richardson (RHP) Kingsport 12/30-40%
11) Will Toffey (3B) 10/29-34%, run-off with Cecchini 15/27-56%
12) Gavin Cecchini (2b) 14/26-46%
13) Francisco Alvarez (C) 9/26-35%
14) Dez Lindsay (OF) 7/18-39%
15) Tony Dibrell (RHP) 9/23-39%
16) Jordan Humphreys (RHP) 7/21-33%, Run-off with Nido 18/24-75%
17) Junior Santos (RHP) 6/28-21%, Run-off with Nido 11/20-55%
18) Tomas Nido (C) 10/23-43%
19) Luis Guillorme (SS) 9/24-38%
20) Adrian Hernandez 6/26-23%, run-off with Wahl/Cortes 8/15-53%
21) Carlos Cortes (2b) 8/21-38%
22) Steven Villines (RHP) 4/16 25%, Run-off with Thompson/Wahl 9/23-39%
23) David Thompson (3b) 8/23-35%
24) Ali Sanchez (C) 9/17-53%
25) Eric Hanhold (RHP) 7/21-33%, run-off 7/20-35%
26) Luis Carpio (IF) 4/18-22%, runoff with Uriarte 9/14-64%
27) Stanley Consuegra (OF) 4/20-20%, runoff with Uriarte/Valdez 6/17-35%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
28) Juan Uriarte (C) 4/19-21%
29) Freddy Valdez (OF) 7/17-41%
30) Daniel Zamora (LHP) 3/17-18%, run-off with Montes De Oca 10/12-83%
31) Jaylen Palmer (??) 3/12-25%, run-off with Montes de Oca/Vilera 9/16-56%
32) Ryley Gilliam (RHP) 5/22-23%, run-off with Manea 8/16-50%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
33) Matt Winaker (OF) 4/22-18
34) Kyle Dowdy (RHP) 6/20-30%, run-off with Vilera 9/12-75%
35) Jaison Vilera (RHP) 6/17-35%
36) Jose Miguel Medina(OF) 6/17-24%
37) Jeremy Vasquez (1b) 3/18-17% run-off with MDO/Manea/Viall 3/7-43%
38) Patrick Mazeika (C) 4/13-31%
Dominic Smith put up an 87 wRC in 375 AAA ABs last year. He was flat out awful in the PCL.
Really an odd move given the return when TDA is coming off of TJ surgery, oft-injured (like Ramos) and more expensive. I've never been big on Plawecki but at that price I'd be praising the Mets for what the Indians did.
Kevin Plawecki deal I do not get. Teams will always face a numbers crunch at the end of Spring Training with too many guys out of options. Why the rush to acquire a long reliever/spot starter and a minor league IF? Plawecki may not have a role for us, but for other teams he is an improvement over their back-up catcher and I think the return could have been better had we waited.
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the Red Sox just won the WS with worse catchers than Plawecki.
Really an odd move given the return when TDA is coming off of TJ surgery, oft-injured (like Ramos) and more expensive. I've never been big on Plawecki but at that price I'd be praising the Mets for what the Indians did.
The only logical reasons I see are (1) the Mets value pitch framing stats and/or (2) the pitching staff prefers TdA to Plawecki on some intangibles like calling a game
Lindsay, Adrian Hernandez, Consuegra, Valdez, Haggerty
The middle 3 would be lucky to be playing in a AA game in 3 years left along helping the Mets
As opposed to going overslot for a 3rd String catcher who can't hit
Honestly, 1 of the few positive things I can say about yesterday's moves are that they make it seem like there are still a bunch of moves yet to come. Really hate that we've purged roughly 1/4 of our top 20 prospects this offseason - and most of them guys with high upside variance since they were only drafted last year.
acknowledge Christian James is upper 80's (there was some discussion over his pure stuff recently), not particularly high on Humphreys.
and this scary note
Gimenez, Alonso, Vientos, Mauricio all moved up to 50 grade prospects. They called Kelenic a top 100 prospect so he presumably would have been in that tier as well, and Santana would have been #10.
I know I've beaten the dead horse on Gimenez being under-ranked numerous times, but here's a statistical question that I think kind of illustrates this point. They graded 4 of his tools 55 or better (hit, run, throw, D). His power grades out at 45. Just mathematically, shouldn't that make him more of a 55 grade prospect or is power that heavily weighted vs. the other tools?
Top 25 Prospects: New York Mets - ( New Window )
If that is true I hope the Braves swoop in and acquire Vientos and/or Mauricio. I have been a big fan of Vientos since the draft.
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is considered a better prospect than Mauricio or Vientos. Neither will be top 100 prospects on most lists. Kelenic will be. Most will have him higher than any prospect in the Mets system (rightly or wrongly) and easily top 3.
If that is true I hope the Braves swoop in and acquire Vientos and/or Mauricio. I have been a big fan of Vientos since the draft.
I didn't mean to imply they are "available". But Law said his rough list has Kelenic 20-40 for 2019. Gimenez may be around 40 on some lists but nowhere near 20 and Alonso won't be that higher either. RH 1b with zero defensive value.
I thought Brody misused his leverage in the Cano trade. When it surfaced that he was taking on a lot of Cano's salary......he didn't need to include those better prospects.
He had Seattle right where he wanted them. The Mariners were asking for Gimenez ?? Give them Gimenez. The Mets had 3 good SS kids in the minors, plus a pretty good one in the majors. Given the scarcity of good OF prospects -- I would have kept Kelenic. My best offer would have been the Money plus Gimenez and maybe a lower grade pitcher. Take it or leave it.
So the Cano trade went down the way it did....but it shaded the way I view every move he's made since. This weekend's moves look a little like moves for move's sake. I wouldn't have left the Catching ranks so thin. Relying on TdA and Nido as primary backups was risky, and trading away the next best C in the system was riskier still. I saw Manea play with Columbia last year -- he was certainly adequate, and was progressing thru their system.
All of these trades may prove to be Stable Genius type moves. Or we may be reading about our players on other teams fro the next 10 years.
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is considered a better prospect than Mauricio or Vientos. Neither will be top 100 prospects on most lists. Kelenic will be. Most will have him higher than any prospect in the Mets system (rightly or wrongly) and easily top 3.
If that is true I hope the Braves swoop in and acquire Vientos and/or Mauricio. I have been a big fan of Vientos since the draft.
Have the Braves signed Kelly Johnson yet? He's like crack to the Mets front office.
I think it's better than 50% chance that Dom Smith gets moved.
But, I'd be really surprised if the Mets got as much back for Dom than they got for Davis.
Low level prospects are seasonal. Value peaks in offseason, plummet once spring ends.
Have the Braves signed Kelly Johnson yet? He's like crack to the Mets front office.
LOL, John Gant from the first time Johnson was traded has turned into a very solid pitcher for the Cards.
Low level prospects are seasonal. Value peaks in offseason, plummet once spring ends.
Any thoughts on guys we gave up (and got) yesterday?
Ive always loved to follow the super low levels, but understand a guy closer is way more valuable by several fold.
JD Davis really caught my eye last spring several times. tucker was impressive but Davis kept popping up. Not literally. He hit a MONSTER HR las.t hear, I think off Robles. No clue if he will make the final adjustment or not, but your looking at a floor of a four corner backup, ceiling of a hard hitting 3B. Both of which are sorely missing in the upper minors.