As I watched the first four games of the playoffs, one thing really popped out at me - outside of the very top teams, the rest of the league is a crapshoot and wide open. The two top defenses (as well as Houston) were bounced, and there really wasn't a theme that ran constant through the winners.
QB play was below average to putrid. One could make a case that outside of Andrew Luck, every other QB was pedestrian at best. Both Chicago and Baltimore, looking back on their season, may draw a conclusion that being in the Top 10 of health played as much of a part in their success as their defenses did, much like the Giants in 2016.
But what this highlights for me as we have the debate on team-building is that I would advocate putting the resources to build the lines and solidify the defense. At this point, the QB seems to be fungible. We could get one last year out of Eli, or replace him at a lower cost and expect similar results. I'd opt for the latter if we could do it.
But, what also becomes glaring in this is that there's only so many places to rebuild from. I know many went apeshit about the Omemeah contract (which, while expensive this year, has little impact forward) and the Solder contract, but the assets simply weren't available. We could have given contracts to the top 5 OL in FA and not have seen much better results. That's key for people who scream that we don't have a plan to understand. How much of a planned roster turnover can be done in one offseason where areas of need didn't have valuable assets available to sign?
There will be a couple decent OL and pass rushers available in FA. If we cut Vernon and use that salary on replacements on the defensive line or at safety/LB, we could get a decent return, then use draft picks to solidify the OL. The cap is not going to be a huge issue this year as we have flexibility to work around it and it rose $14M.
With Barkley in place, building a solid OL and getting a QB to replace Eli will be the key pieces for improvement. It is what the Rams did. They took Gurley, then got their QB, then put together a really solid OL. Based on what we've seen from the mediocrity that was in the playoffs, I do see light at the end of the tunnel.
i also see that the QB conversation isn't likely to be the lynchpin to the success as a lot made it out to be last year.
2ndroundKO : 11:25 am : link : reply
cost a lot less than Eli.
Isn't Eli like the 15th highest paid QB?
And didn't the top 7 most expensive QB's miss the playoffs this year - or did I see that stat incorrectly?
Not so yesterday. The Chargers stopped the run. Great job by them.
Not so yesterday. The Chargers stopped the run. Great job by them.
yesterday was the first time someone saw him for the 2nd time. And thats what happens. teams adapt. Teams know what to expect. Hence making it easier to defend.
Not so yesterday. The Chargers stopped the run. Great job by them.
7 games is less than half a season and all of those teams were seeing Jackson for the first time.
This is what happens when a team sees him a second time.
The Ravens were a one dimensional, easy to defend offense. All the Chargers did was stack the box and dare Jackson to complete basic NFL throws. He couldn't do it.
I know you desperately want this Ravens thing to work with Jackson, but it's not going to unless he makes significant strides as a passer. The adjustment period is over and they're not going to keep winning games next season with a pass game this ineffective.
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I look at every play a QB makes now and ask myself could Eli make that play? There are a whole ton of no's and not too many, Eli would have been better in that spot. I agree that that the lines are more important than the QB but I would prefer we look at the league rosters and identify some QBs with the traits we want that haven't been given a shot, acquire the QB and play him next year. I want someone with deep ball accuracy and some mobility. I truly believe this makes our OL look better. If the QB could bail out the OL once in a while with some off schedule big plays it could go a very long way into improving their confidence. It is HARD to know you have to play perfect every pass play.
I just don't understand this at all. Do you think Jackson was making plays yesterday that Eli couldn't make? How about Rivers? How about Foles? Which throws did you see this weekend that Manning couldn't make?
You want a QB with deep ball accuracy? Did you happen to catch the thread last week where the Giants were Top 10 in deep ball attempts (20+ yards), and 1st in completing them (44%).
As far as mobility, I just don't know what some of you watched this year. Eli was more than adequate on designed rollouts and bootlegs. He also moved within the pocket very well made throws while buying time.
I know you think I'm an Eli homer but I just can't let posts like this slide without addressing them, because I believe they are wrong.
Baltimore was unprepared for LA did to stop the run. The Chargers' defensive coaches deserve a lot of credit.
Sounds like to me they fell into a one dimensional role.
If Plan A doesn't work, you need a Plan B. It's called adjustments.
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In the other 7 games were teams surprised that the Ravens were trying to run the ball? No. Everyone knew the Ravens were going to run the ball, and they were able to run it anyway.
Not so yesterday. The Chargers stopped the run. Great job by them.
7 games is less than half a season and all of those teams were seeing Jackson for the first time.
This is what happens when a team sees him a second time.
The Ravens were a one dimensional, easy to defend offense. All the Chargers did was stack the box and dare Jackson to complete basic NFL throws. He couldn't do it.
I know you desperately want this Ravens thing to work with Jackson, but it's not going to unless he makes significant strides as a passer. The adjustment period is over and they're not going to keep winning games next season with a pass game this ineffective.
Yeah, no idea what point Terps is really trying to make here. QB play absolutely held the Ravens back yesterday. SD was able to stop the run yesterday specifically because they were comfortable putting 8 and sometimes 9 guys in the box since they had no fear of Jackson throwing the ball. Their inability to pass caused their inability to run, not the other way around. Jackson only made some plays after SD went into a shell up 3 scores in the 4th Quarter, and they still should have had easy picks.
You want a QB with deep ball accuracy? Did you happen to catch the thread last week where the Giants were Top 10 in deep ball attempts (20+ yards), and 1st in completing them (44%).
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Deep Ball accuracy - ( New Window )
Go Terps : 11:43 am : link : reply
I just enjoy seeing teams commit to the running game. I hope the Ravens take the same approach next year for a full year to see how it turns out.
Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincy.
If the Ravens take the same approach next year, they will be lucky to win 5 games. Put it this way - do you really want to see teams commit to the run? I mean, there have been successful college schemes out there for years. The wishbone, the veer, the single wing.
An NFL QB needs to be able to throw because any decent DC will take away a one-dimensional team.
Let's also revisit who Jackson beat this year:
- Bengals
- Raiders
- Bucs
- Falcons
- Browns
And Chargers
When the Giants were beating teams with backup QB's, it is like we should count them as losses. When Jackson is beating 4 out of the bottom 5 teams against the run? He's revolutionizing the sport.
Watson - can move and improvise, and he can throw from the pocket.
Luck - he is nimble in the pocket, he can make yards on his own, he can throw from the pocket.
LJax - Olympic type relay speed. He can move to buy time and he can run like a WR. He's still a novice playing at traditional QB requirements.
Rivers - an outlier with is unorthodox throwing style. But he's also very nimble for a big man.
Prescott - can move laterally and vertically. A threat to run. Competent + as a pocket QB.
Wilson - great all-around QB from the pocket and on the move.
Foles - pocket passer but he's is athletic enough to move around the pocket, and at least be a threat to run.
Trubisky - great athlete, developing as a pocket passer (didn't have a ton of starts at UNC), but he's a threat to make yardage on his own.
A very common, important element exists with the majority of these QBs - they can move, buy time, and create. While I prefer the more traditional pocket passer, it's clearer than ever you need an athlete who can pose some threat to improvise. And that's because building quality olines is more difficult than ever.
So while the supply of quality olinemen from the college store continues to be lacking, you have to compensate with the athlete. We don't have an athletic QB with Eli, and the investment we would need to get him to some reasonable point of being reliable week to week would be a waste of funds.
The hunt is on - we need to evolve and find a QB who doesn't need a pocket built by Berlin Wall Inc to succeed.
You really think Shurmur is getting fired this off-season or after next year before the season has even been played?
Odd take
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You want a QB with deep ball accuracy? Did you happen to catch the thread last week where the Giants were Top 10 in deep ball attempts (20+ yards), and 1st in completing them (44%).
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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/deep-ball-project Deep Ball accuracy - ( New Window )
Oh lord....
Typical drops.
Plays where the receiver fails to win at the catch point despite being given a reasonable angle to catch the ball.
Plays where the receiver fails to keep two feet in bounds or in the end zone.
Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.)
Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground.
Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands.
So it's completely subjective.
The NFL has always considered a deep pass a pass of 20+ yards. They've measured it that way for as long as I can remember.
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I am watching too
Thegratefulhead : 10:49 am : link : reply
I look at every play a QB makes now and ask myself could Eli make that play? There are a whole ton of no's and not too many, Eli would have been better in that spot. I agree that that the lines are more important than the QB but I would prefer we look at the league rosters and identify some QBs with the traits we want that haven't been given a shot, acquire the QB and play him next year. I want someone with deep ball accuracy and some mobility. I truly believe this makes our OL look better. If the QB could bail out the OL once in a while with some off schedule big plays it could go a very long way into improving their confidence. It is HARD to know you have to play perfect every pass play.
Just look at the Bears-Philly game if you still had any constitution to watch football after the display Jackson displayed earlier. Both QB's were literally floating balls 25+ yards downfield. A couple were caught, a couple were picked off and a few were dropped or incomplete. Not only can Eli do that - he has. The Trubisky pass right before half? Eli did that against Philly - except the DB intercepted it.
What I took away from this weekend was that the QB play was fairly uninspiring in most cases and dreadful in a couple cases. If you don't think Eli could do at least as poorly as that, I really don't know what to say as an agenda is on full display.
How exactly did those traits elevate the level of play from the QB position? If anything, it just covered up some serious flaws.
Watson - can move and improvise, and he can throw from the pocket.
Luck - he is nimble in the pocket, he can make yards on his own, he can throw from the pocket.
LJax - Olympic type relay speed. He can move to buy time and he can run like a WR. He's still a novice playing at traditional QB requirements.
Rivers - an outlier with is unorthodox throwing style. But he's also very nimble for a big man.
Prescott - can move laterally and vertically. A threat to run. Competent + as a pocket QB.
Wilson - great all-around QB from the pocket and on the move.
Foles - pocket passer but he's is athletic enough to move around the pocket, and at least be a threat to run.
Trubisky - great athlete, developing as a pocket passer (didn't have a ton of starts at UNC), but he's a threat to make yardage on his own.
A very common, important element exists with the majority of these QBs - they can move, buy time, and create. While I prefer the more traditional pocket passer, it's clearer than ever you need an athlete who can pose some threat to improvise. And that's because building quality olines is more difficult than ever.
So while the supply of quality olinemen from the college store continues to be lacking, you have to compensate with the athlete. We don't have an athletic QB with Eli, and the investment we would need to get him to some reasonable point of being reliable week to week would be a waste of funds.
The hunt is on - we need to evolve and find a QB who doesn't need a pocket built by Berlin Wall Inc to succeed.
And the majority of these guys struggled to do one thing this weekend....
Throw the ball.
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In comment 14251954 Britt in VA said:
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You want a QB with deep ball accuracy? Did you happen to catch the thread last week where the Giants were Top 10 in deep ball attempts (20+ yards), and 1st in completing them (44%).
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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/deep-ball-project Deep Ball accuracy - ( New Window )
Oh lord....
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There is a wider variety of scenarios that play into accurate passes aside from the typical uncontested drop. These include:
Typical drops.
Plays where the receiver fails to win at the catch point despite being given a reasonable angle to catch the ball.
Plays where the receiver fails to keep two feet in bounds or in the end zone.
Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.)
Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground.
Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands.
So it's completely subjective.
The NFL has always considered a deep pass a pass of 20+ yards. They've measured it that way for as long as I can remember.
Like this one?
Link - ( New Window )
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When, as I expect, we move on from Shurmur after this year or next...
You really think Shurmur is getting fired this off-season or after next year before the season has even been played?
Odd take
I don't think Shurmur is long for this job, no. I think the only question after 2019 will be whether Mara puts him on notice that 2020 has to be a playoff year or if he just moves on.
I don't expect you to watch it because it will blow up everything you'd said on this thread and then the goalposts will have to move again.
Link - ( New Window )
You do think that a guy playing half of a season should be OROY though. That's pretty absurd:
Go Terps : 1/3/2019 3:49 pm : link : reply
He took a non-playoff team and made it a playoff team.
Remember - this guy ran for more yards and more TDs in college than Saquon Barkley. And he didn't miss a game. That's an incredible statistic.
And huge kudos to John Harbaugh and his staff for having the courage to try something completely different.
It's just clips. No music, no BS, just plays.
Jackson actually impacted games.
He didn't light up the scoreboard or stat sheet, but he managed that game very well.
Maybe the best defense in the league, on the road, windy day, he doesn't turn the ball over and it was pedestrian at best?
People are downplaying the need to have a franchise QB to consistently contend in this league. The teams that are there year in and year out are the ones that have a franchise QB. In any one given year you can compete, but thats when you wind up with teams like the jaguars who go to AFC title game then fall off of a cliff.
There are ways to build a team without a franchise QB, but its certainly a hell of a lot easier when you do have one. You need so many breaks to win a title when you don't have the top QB. The Eagles never win the Super Bowl last year if Foles starts the entire season. They got the 1 seed because of Wentz and then rode on a magic carpet throughout the postseason.
I dont see a franchise QB in this draft so I hope they draft a pass rusher 1st round but i dont see a path to a consistent winner until the Giants get a franchise level QB.
If you have a player like Dak you can win but you need a lot of things to go your way to do so.
It's just clips. No music, no BS, just plays.
He couldn't make any of them because he wasn't playing. He's been the QB for a really bad 6 year run. Unfortunately that's on him and much as anybody else. Hopefully he retires before it gets any worse.
I don't expect you to watch it because it will blow up everything you'd said on this thread and then the goalposts will have to move again. Link - ( New Window )
Eli has made a number of big time throws this year(Agreed), I stand by that. I also stand by that he doesn't do it consistently enough anymore.
Forget it Eli, is still great. The QB play we have been watching is good enough for you. It isn't for me. It hasn't been for a while.
when Jackson cam in, the Ravens were 4-5, and at the time were either the 2nd wild Card team or 1 game out, so acting as if they were somehow like the Texans or Colts were is a bit disingenuous. He took a borderline playoff team, faced several poor defenses and cemented the idea they were a borderline playoff team.
Meanwhile, the Giants beat teams with backup QB's and it is like we should forfeit those games to preserve the integrity of the sport.
Jackson actually impacted games.
You still aren't understanding that Jackson and Barkley's impacts aren't happening in a vacuum.
Flip the Giants and Ravens defenses and you'd easily be able to make a case for the opposite. The Giants would be the playoff team and the Ravens would be the 5 win team.
I don't know why this concept so often escapes you.
Barkley's in the discussion too, but Nelson was just as dominant and his team was a hell of a lot better.
I know it's not Saquons fault, but he stood on his head basically all year and this team still sucked. Spare me that they lost a lot of close games. They also had 4 of their 5 wins come against backup or 3rd string QBs. No matter what way you want to slice it, this team sucked. They were 1-7, got on a streak against backup QBs, then pissed down their legs the second they had a chance to maybe make a run at the playoffs. Every time there has been any sort of pressure on this team recently they have folded like a cheap tent.
This team needs better players across the board. I'm not worried about creating a losing culture by tanking next year, because a lot of the sacks of shit on this team wont be here when the Giants are good again and Shurmur certainly wont be. Barkley, Beckham, Hernandez are the only three guys that would upset me if the Giants got rid of. Everyone else hit the road.
Year in and tear out doesn't apply to him. Basically it applies to 3 teams.
If we re-did the 2018 NFL draft right now with every exec knowing what they know now, Barkley would still be taken almost an entire round earlier than Jackson.
He's basically put them in a QB dilemma right now.
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I think that's pretty damn impressive for a rookie quarterback. I stand by that. I can see the argument for Mayfield too, as he led a previously moribund team to 7 wins, but that's the only other guy. I know Barkley put up big numbers, but it proved to not matter all that much as his team was pathetic regardless.
Jackson actually impacted games.
You still aren't understanding that Jackson and Barkley's impacts aren't happening in a vacuum.
Flip the Giants and Ravens defenses and you'd easily be able to make a case for the opposite. The Giants would be the playoff team and the Ravens would be the 5 win team.
I don't know why this concept so often escapes you.
The Ravens were not good before Jackson started. I'm not nearly as high on Jackson as Terps is, but before he started they were at best an average team. And they had the same players on defense before Jackson started. He deserves a lot of credit for that.
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There are a ton of plays where he does exactly the things you say he can't, throwing on the move, evading pressure in the pocket, throwing with pressure in his face.
I don't expect you to watch it because it will blow up everything you'd said on this thread and then the goalposts will have to move again. Link - ( New Window )
I will watch, I watched every throw he has made in his career. We are resorting to highlight reels now? What if there was highlight reel of his lowlights, If I post that does it count? It would be silly, you would accuse me of being a bad fan for posting his miscues. He folds under phantom pressure at times.
Eli has made a number of big time throws this year(Agreed), I stand by that. I also stand by that he doesn't do it consistently enough anymore.
Forget it Eli, is still great. The QB play we have been watching is good enough for you. It isn't for me. It hasn't been for a while.
When somebody says the QB can't do this or that, and then somebody posts actual video evidence of them doing those exact things, is that somehow not relevant or an acceptable response? If I posted a 2 minutes highlight real that was pumped up to make him look like something that he wasn't, that's one thing, but that's a full season worth of single plays totaling nearly 30 minutes without commentary. He can either make the throws, or he can not. Whether it's time to move on from him big picture/philosophically is not what we're talking about here.
I didn't call you a bad fan, I just said I do not agree that he could not make any particular throw that we saw from other QB's this weekend.
2. This is where I think we're way behind...the quality of the coaching on the winning teams was pretty high. Reich and his staff speak for themselves, and I thought Lynn and his staff completely outcoached Harbaugh (until the last 8 minutes or so when they tried to give the game back). Where it's most troubling for the Giants is with Dallas and especially Philly.
I don't think much of Garrett as a head coach, but his staff is strong. Marinelli, Richard, Linehan, Colombo...that's a strong staff that usually has their guys playing cohesively and pulling in the same direction.
Regarding Philly, I think they've done an incredible job salvaging this year when they basically had every excuse to pack it in. Their secondary was gutted by injury, they lost their starting QB, starting RB, missed Tim Jernigan for much of the year, all while dealing with the post Super Bowl hangover. And here they are again in the final 8. When, as I expect, we move on from Shurmur after this year or next we should interview Jim Schwartz as a possible successor. I still think that guy is cut out to be a head coach and a culture builder.
Schwartz should never be a HC in the NFL again. He is a good Coordinator but not a HC.
Ive seen QBs go on the road and play in freezing cold and rain and perform better and make more plays against top defenses....
Does pocket passing guarantee you anything? Of course not. But when it works there is no stopping it.
The NFL is cyclical - again as teams (defenses) move to defending more spread concepts with speed over size, I'm convinced more than ever a big powerful running game featuring old school pocket passing/play action can not only work wonders but completely dominate.
There is no defense for a power run game/play action scheme with a good pocket passer. There never was and there never will be.
It's still hard to pull off but I am OK trying it over and over again because eventually, it will work.
If we re-did the 2018 NFL draft right now with every exec knowing what they know now, Barkley would still be taken almost an entire round earlier than Jackson.
If you do a redraft a few years from now theres a very good chance Barkley isn't drafted #2. If any of the other QBs besides Mayfield become a franchise level QB they'd all go over him and Chubb/Nelson you would have to consider too.
Having the best running back in the sport hasn't won a team a title since Marshall Faulk almost 2 decades ago.
I really think tanking this coming season is the quickest path to making this team a contender.
If we re-did the 2018 NFL draft right now with every exec knowing what they know now, Barkley would still be taken almost an entire round earlier than Jackson.
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In comment 14252108 Go Terps said:
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I think that's pretty damn impressive for a rookie quarterback. I stand by that. I can see the argument for Mayfield too, as he led a previously moribund team to 7 wins, but that's the only other guy. I know Barkley put up big numbers, but it proved to not matter all that much as his team was pathetic regardless.
Jackson actually impacted games.
You still aren't understanding that Jackson and Barkley's impacts aren't happening in a vacuum.
Flip the Giants and Ravens defenses and you'd easily be able to make a case for the opposite. The Giants would be the playoff team and the Ravens would be the 5 win team.
I don't know why this concept so often escapes you.
The Ravens were not good before Jackson started. I'm not nearly as high on Jackson as Terps is, but before he started they were at best an average team. And they had the same players on defense before Jackson started. He deserves a lot of credit for that.
The Ravens defense was still very good before Jackson started. It didn't magically become the top unit in football when he took over.
His performance yesterday was pathetic. It's not a sustainable model and what we saw yesterday is exactly what we'll see next year on a regular basis now that there's a blueprint.
He's far too poor as a passer to be a full time starter at the QB position. Unless he makes very large strides, Baltimore already maxed out on this.
Ive seen QBs go on the road and play in freezing cold and rain and perform better and make more plays against top defenses....
The idea that he didnt help his team yesterday is pure dogshit. He didn't turn it over and managed the game incredibly well. That's not pedestrian. He was not great, but he played a good ball game and did exactly what they needed to do.
The Mike Williams drop was a killer, as was the fumble by the TE.
Rivers played a pretty good game yesterday. Not great, no. But you guys are stuck way too much on the numbers. I'm sure the Chargers were very happy with what Rivers did in that game yesterday.
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Put it this way...
If we re-did the 2018 NFL draft right now with every exec knowing what they know now, Barkley would still be taken almost an entire round earlier than Jackson.
If you do a redraft a few years from now theres a very good chance Barkley isn't drafted #2. If any of the other QBs besides Mayfield become a franchise level QB they'd all go over him and Chubb/Nelson you would have to consider too.
Having the best running back in the sport hasn't won a team a title since Marshall Faulk almost 2 decades ago.
I really think tanking this coming season is the quickest path to making this team a contender.
Dallas and LA are doing pretty well with Gurley and Elliott right now. Both top 10 picks. Elliott a top 5 pick.
They're 2 of the 4 remaining teams in the NFC now.
He didn't make the critical mistake, knowing that the opponent couldn't do jackshit.
But if you watched that game and came away impressed, I don't know what to say. The Chargers D won that game for them.