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First Round of Playoffs - Team-Building Thoughts

FatMan in Charlotte : 1/7/2019 8:47 am
As I watched the first four games of the playoffs, one thing really popped out at me - outside of the very top teams, the rest of the league is a crapshoot and wide open. The two top defenses (as well as Houston) were bounced, and there really wasn't a theme that ran constant through the winners.

QB play was below average to putrid. One could make a case that outside of Andrew Luck, every other QB was pedestrian at best. Both Chicago and Baltimore, looking back on their season, may draw a conclusion that being in the Top 10 of health played as much of a part in their success as their defenses did, much like the Giants in 2016.

But what this highlights for me as we have the debate on team-building is that I would advocate putting the resources to build the lines and solidify the defense. At this point, the QB seems to be fungible. We could get one last year out of Eli, or replace him at a lower cost and expect similar results. I'd opt for the latter if we could do it.

But, what also becomes glaring in this is that there's only so many places to rebuild from. I know many went apeshit about the Omemeah contract (which, while expensive this year, has little impact forward) and the Solder contract, but the assets simply weren't available. We could have given contracts to the top 5 OL in FA and not have seen much better results. That's key for people who scream that we don't have a plan to understand. How much of a planned roster turnover can be done in one offseason where areas of need didn't have valuable assets available to sign?

There will be a couple decent OL and pass rushers available in FA. If we cut Vernon and use that salary on replacements on the defensive line or at safety/LB, we could get a decent return, then use draft picks to solidify the OL. The cap is not going to be a huge issue this year as we have flexibility to work around it and it rose $14M.

With Barkley in place, building a solid OL and getting a QB to replace Eli will be the key pieces for improvement. It is what the Rams did. They took Gurley, then got their QB, then put together a really solid OL. Based on what we've seen from the mediocrity that was in the playoffs, I do see light at the end of the tunnel.

i also see that the QB conversation isn't likely to be the lynchpin to the success as a lot made it out to be last year.
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The Lamar Jackson experiment is a joke  
NINEster : 1/7/2019 7:26 pm : link
Can't see how he's a better passer than Kaepernick at any point in in Kap's career?

Maybe he could run better?



not after him  
santacruzom : 1/7/2019 7:28 pm : link
before him (aside from Luck and Griffin of course)
Conflating better and best  
Colin@gbn : 1/7/2019 7:46 pm : link
Evening guys. Happy New Year to everyone! Lets hope 2019 is a whole lot better than the last couple of years at least from a Giants perspective.

Interesting discussion. I recently posted an article over at the GBN (which Defenderdawg graciously referred to in his list of Monday reading today) that addressed the issues raised in this article. In the article I was responding to the most oft-asked questions I get about where the Giants are at these days. And right at the top of the list has been the question (or some variation of): "After three and five win seasons are the Giants ‘close’ as some people suggest or are they in reality in the midst of a major rebuild?

The answer is Yes and Yes!

The margin between winning and losing in the NFL is often very small and in the Giants case it doesn’t get much smaller than two 1-point losses in the final minute, a two-point loss on a 63-yard FG at the end, a three-point loss, a 5-point loss (in which the winning points were scored on a pick-6 of a deflected pass) and a couple of 7 point losses. That’s 4 losses by a total of 7 points and 7 losses by a total of 26 points. What was frustrating is that it isn’t hard to go back and see where with a play here or there, especially a stop on defense in the latter part of any number of games, that the Giants could just as easily have won several more games and been in the thick of the hunt for a playoff spot. Indeed, tweak the OL a little bit further and add a body or two on defense, especially to the pass rush, and it is not all that inconceivable that the Giants could easily win some of the close games they lost this year and finish with 9-10 wins and make the playoffs next fall.

However, that’s not really the goal here. As G.M. Dave Gettleman noted in his year-end presser, the ultimate objective is to “build sustained success’ where one posts double-digit wins, gets home-field advantage, and goes deep into the playoffs on a yearly basis. And in that regard the Giants appear to still have some heavy-lifting to do. Indeed, at least in a general sense, teams that fit that characterization have at least one of two things (if not both): either a very good, if not elite QB; and/or a very good defense that can at least hold a lead at the end of games. Truth be told the Giants have neither. Eli appears to still have some tread left on the tires, but he is simply no longer anywhere near the category of guys like Brady, Brees and Mahomes and obviously the heir apparent just isn’t very apparent! Meanwhile, right now the Giants defense bares no resemblance at all to the great championship defenses of Huff, Robustelli, Grier, Katcavage, and Patten; LT, Banks, Carson, Marshall and Collins; and Strahan, Tuck, and Unmenyiora et al. Not even close."

People that haven't seen can read the full article here.

Botom line is that people may be talking past each other a little bit as I suspect there are some major differences in what is needed between getting better and making the playoffs versus becoming a legit elite championship team.



FMiC  
EricJ : 1/7/2019 8:06 pm : link
Was traveling all day and just seeing your OP. Did not read through all of the responses.

I agree with what you are saying in general. However, I do not think we should come to the conclusion that defense is not as important as we thought since Balt and Chi lost. Baltimore's offense lost the game for them in the first half. Chicago's defense still played well even though the team lost. If the kick was straight, we would not be talking about it.

I agree with your Eli comment about leaning towards replacing him. What would really help this offense is if we were able to find someone who is not necessarily an upgrade but has the ability to run. Not a "running" QB but someone that gives defenses that hesitation or concern for contain. It would do wonders for our OL and would make their jobs easier to block for whoever that QB is.
FMiC  
.McL. : 1/7/2019 8:23 pm : link
Quote:

putting the resources to build the lines and solidify the defense. At this point, the QB seems to be fungible. We could get one last year out of Eli...

But, what also becomes glaring in this is that there's only so many places to rebuild from. I know many went apeshit about the Omemeah contract (which, while expensive this year, has little impact forward) and the Solder contract, but the assets simply weren't available. We could have given contracts to the top 5 OL in FA and not have seen much better results. That's key for people who scream that we don't have a plan to understand. How much of a planned roster turnover can be done in one offseason where areas of need didn't have valuable assets available to sign?


Good points. Points I've agreed with for a while now.

Quote:

There will be a couple decent OL and pass rushers available in FA.


Not sure I agree with this just yet. I think we need to wait and see who resigns with their current teams. Looking at recent trends, good young OL are not hitting FA often. Its either replacement level players, or guys over 30 hanging on for a last contract. I suspect that when the dust settles, there won't be much more to pick over than there was last year. Same goes for pass rushers.

Quote:

, or replace him at a lower cost and expect similar results. I'd opt for the latter if we could do it.

You can replace him at a lower cost, but I think I have gone through the candidate on other posts, there is nobody that will perform as well at a lower cost for short term contract. You can grab a a lower level starter and guarantee a really bad season, if that is what you mean by "similar results". That has some merit in helping to get a real QB in 2020. But there is no lower cost replacement player for Eli that will perform comparably.

I have am one of the people who suggest that our 5 wins this year is bloated due to good health for the Giants, and facing a string of banged up teams with backup QBs. To me this team is still a 3 - 13 franchise. Sad to say but, 5 or 6 wins without the gifts wins of this season will represent real improvement. 5 or 6 wins is just as lost a season as 3. So who cares who plays QB and if you get 3 wins or 6 wins. Problem is that its a bad optic going into the season, and its bad for business. So I think the business decision is to let Eli finish his last year.

Quote:

If we cut Vernon and use that salary on replacements on the defensive line or at safety/LB, we could get a decent return, then use draft picks to solidify the OL. The cap is not going to be a huge issue this year as we have flexibility to work around it and it rose $14M.

Because the cap is not a huge issue, I'm not sure its a good idea to cut OV for nothing in return. He should be tradeable fir something.

Also looking at recent FA costs, defense seems a better place to get value in the FA market, so I'm on board there.
We really weren't..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/7/2019 9:02 pm : link
that healthy:

Quote:
I have am one of the people who suggest that our 5 wins this year is bloated due to good health for the Giants


At week 6, we were 16th in overall health and finished 21st.
Health/Injuries  
Jimmy Googs : 1/7/2019 9:13 pm : link
I think Giants were in pretty good shape in first half of season on starters lost due to injuries, but things clearly deteriorated in second half.

Average overall seems pretty reasonable.

This thread had nice promise as the day started...what the hell happened?
RE: We really weren't..  
.McL. : 1/7/2019 11:19 pm : link
In comment 14253049 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
that healthy:



Quote:


I have am one of the people who suggest that our 5 wins this year is bloated due to good health for the Giants



At week 6, we were 16th in overall health and finished 21st.

Interesting health numbers, I was looking for them but was having difficulty finding.
Here is the thing. The team was certainly healther for weeks 9 - 13 where they had the 4 - 1 stretch, and they played some banged up teams. Yeah it went downhill after that losing OBJ, Collins, and a few others along the way. But during that period of winning football the point I am making is that it was largely due to superior health. THat includes facing 3 backup QBs.

Had the Giants lost OBJ, Collins, or god forbid Solder, Hernandez or Brown, during that stretch, I doubt they win any of those games.
RE: I'm done  
JCin332 : 1/8/2019 7:33 am : link
In comment 14252676 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
That said, in full disclosure, I thought the Barkley pick was a mistake. I was wrong. We should build the offense around him. We need a QB that can burn opponents for stacking the box. Then, this offense can fly.


But Giants opponents can generate plenty of pressure and stop the run without stacking the box...that has been the problem...the OL has been very bad for a long time...its not a coincidence that SB was the Giants first 1000 yard rusher since 2012...

In the 2nd half of the season when they got average OL play both the passing and running game greatly improved...

Yet you say it's the QB...
I think health..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/8/2019 8:10 am : link
was a little different this year because we didn't have cluster injuries - other than at C:

Quote:
Interesting health numbers, I was looking for them but was having difficulty finding.
Here is the thing. The team was certainly healthier for weeks 9 - 13 where they had the 4 - 1 stretch, and they played some banged up teams.


In some past years, we not only had a lot of men go down, but we had them clustered at one or two positions, nearly wiping all the depth out.

That's probably what has given the appearance we had decent health.
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