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OSU's Dwayne Haskins Jr. officially declares for NFL Draft

Anakim : 1/7/2019 2:35 pm
FYI
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RE: Oakland  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:05 pm : link
In comment 14252595 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
and Tampa are not drafting a quarterback.

It was rumored for weeks that Gruden was leaning towards moving on from Carr.
RE: RE: Oakland  
ryanmkeane : 1/7/2019 4:05 pm : link
In comment 14252602 Pep22 said:
Quote:
In comment 14252595 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


and Tampa are not drafting a quarterback.



Man I hate posts like this. How the fuck do you know?

Literally the coach of the Raiders said Carr is not going anywhere, that he is a great quarterback, and will be the QB of the team moving forward.

Literally the GM of the Bucs said that Winston is their guy and the next coach has to work with Winston to get it done. He said to all the coaching candidates...Winston is the QB.

I'm not just predicting or saying stuff to say it. It literally came from the teams themselves.
There's been one draft  
Kyle in NY : 1/7/2019 4:06 pm : link
since 2001 in which a QB did not go in the top 5. Sure, this could be the outlier given the thin QB class. But I think chances are a QB starved organization becomes convinced he's the guy and trades up to get him. Jacksonville, Denver, Miami look like prime candidates picking behind the Giants. I don't he gets to 6. We'll see
Don’t believe  
dep026 : 1/7/2019 4:07 pm : link
Everything you hear.
Jon Gruden as of December 18:  
ryanmkeane : 1/7/2019 4:07 pm : link
"No question, I am sure he is sore. He knows he is carrying us right now on offense. That's what a franchise quarterback is paid to do, but we are doing everything we can to support him, to try and put him in position to audible at the line of scrimmage, fix problems, and move the football and ultimately win games. He really has had us in position to win a lot of these games. It's a credit to him."

"I think Derek has played great," Gruden continued. "Somebody told me he had 3,700 yards and 68 percent completions in 13 games. That's astonishing. With three new guards, losing a right tackle, a featured back, three top receivers. The guy is a hell of a player. The guy is a great quarterback. We are very pleased and proud of what he has done. We know we got to get better around him, and that we will."
I would move up  
GoBlue6599 : 1/7/2019 4:07 pm : link
Haskins will be worth it.. his downfield accuracy would bring out the best in OBJ and Engram.. we also get to see the OL block for a QB who wont be a sitting duck.. Haskins could rejuvenate this whole franchise
dep...  
ryanmkeane : 1/7/2019 4:08 pm : link
seriously? Each team has literally said they have their franchise QBs currently. So now you are just saying that they are lying to everyone?
RE: RE: RE: The thing that brings this fan comfort, is the fact that  
bw in dc : 1/7/2019 4:08 pm : link
In comment 14252584 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:


We don’t know what he’s accomplished with KL, but he was a 4th round pick. That’s where Shurmur probably evaluated him project-wise. Haskins may go high in Round 1 and might very well be someone’s franchise guy. You’re actually are comparing a 4th rounder with a 1st rounder?


Apparently Shurmur was very high on Lauletta. A 4th round pick is a material investment.

Besides Keenum, who exactly has Shurmur molded to be this reputed QB whisperer? And please don't give me McNabb. That was Reid with Shurmur riding in the passenger seat...
RE: Giants are the  
AcesUp : 1/7/2019 4:08 pm : link
In comment 14252601 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
1st team in the draft that needs a quarterback. It's a good position to be in. Unlike last year, where we were 2nd in line behind Cleveland.


Oakland and Tampa may be full of shit in their commitment to their QBs. The Jags are only 1 spot behind us and could be proactive as well.
RE: RE: RE: Oakland  
Pep22 : 1/7/2019 4:09 pm : link
In comment 14252604 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 14252602 Pep22 said:


Quote:


In comment 14252595 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


and Tampa are not drafting a quarterback.



Man I hate posts like this. How the fuck do you know?



It’s his opinion. NO ONE truly knows



Agreed. Its just frustrating how people come off like they know.
RE: RE: RE: Oakland  
Beer Man : 1/7/2019 4:09 pm : link
In comment 14252604 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 14252602 Pep22 said:


Quote:


In comment 14252595 ryanmkeane said:


Quote:


and Tampa are not drafting a quarterback.



Man I hate posts like this. How the fuck do you know?



It’s his opinion. NO ONE truly knows
Because, there was an article last week, where the owner stated that the new coach will have to accept Winston as his starting QB.
The problem with the "system QB" label  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 1/7/2019 4:11 pm : link
is that no one else ever put up these numbers while playing for Urban Meyer at any of his 4 stops. In fact, I'd argue Haskins' lack of mobility makes him less like any of the previous Urban Meyer QBs. (John Brantley couldn't run, but he sure as heck didn't put up numbers like Haskins.) No one else ever completed 70% of their passes for Meyer. No one threw for this many yards or TDs. He threw less interceptions in 160 more attempts than JT Barrett the previous season. This kind of production is impossible to ignore or dismiss.

The biggest negatives for him are experience and athletic ability. He's not a statue, but he's not mobile either. Guys who leave school as redshirt sophomores don't have long, successful NFL careers. Haskins is leaving after starting only 1 season whereas nearly all of the rest started for 2 years.
You guys are being ridiculous..  
ryanmkeane : 1/7/2019 4:12 pm : link
I'm taking verbatim what the GM and coach from each team has said about their QB, and I'm repeating it. I'm not making something up.
RE: RE: RE: RE: The thing that brings this fan comfort, is the fact that  
Big Blue '56 : 1/7/2019 4:13 pm : link
In comment 14252620 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14252584 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:




We don’t know what he’s accomplished with KL, but he was a 4th round pick. That’s where Shurmur probably evaluated him project-wise. Haskins may go high in Round 1 and might very well be someone’s franchise guy. You’re actually are comparing a 4th rounder with a 1st rounder?



Apparently Shurmur was very high on Lauletta. A 4th round pick is a material investment.

Besides Keenum, who exactly has Shurmur molded to be this reputed QB whisperer? And please don't give me McNabb. That was Reid with Shurmur riding in the passenger seat...


Foles, his first go-around with Philly, Bridgewater was playing decently pre-injury. He had Bradford playing arguably his best ball before he went down. You know more about QBs than Shurmur, so I’ll grant that. :)
RE: You guys are being ridiculous..  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:14 pm : link
In comment 14252627 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
I'm taking verbatim what the GM and coach from each team has said about their QB, and I'm repeating it. I'm not making something up.

"I'm not going to be the Alabama coach" - Nick Saban
Dumb comment  
RinR : 1/7/2019 4:14 pm : link
In comment 14252577 GoBlue6599 said:
Quote:
let’s see if the Giants won’t screw that up or if they’ll trot out that Dinosaur Eli Manning and his huge cap number
Anything to sell those PSLs


Right. So the Giants are keeping Eli to sell PSLs. Guess you haven't been to the PSL Marketplace lately.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The thing that brings this fan comfort, is the fact that  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:15 pm : link
In comment 14252628 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 14252620 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 14252584 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:




We don’t know what he’s accomplished with KL, but he was a 4th round pick. That’s where Shurmur probably evaluated him project-wise. Haskins may go high in Round 1 and might very well be someone’s franchise guy. You’re actually are comparing a 4th rounder with a 1st rounder?



Apparently Shurmur was very high on Lauletta. A 4th round pick is a material investment.

Besides Keenum, who exactly has Shurmur molded to be this reputed QB whisperer? And please don't give me McNabb. That was Reid with Shurmur riding in the passenger seat...



Foles, his first go-around with Philly, Bridgewater was playing decently pre-injury. He had Bradford playing arguably his best ball before he went down. You know more about QBs than Shurmur, so I’ll grant that. :)

You forgot Case Keenum last year.
RE: I guess  
Greg from LI : 1/7/2019 4:16 pm : link
In comment 14252598 Pep22 said:
Quote:
Coach K was responsible for a truck driver falling asleep (Bobby Hurley's career ender)


Bobby Hurley was never going to be good at the NBA level anyway.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The thing that brings this fan comfort, is the fact that  
bw in dc : 1/7/2019 4:20 pm : link
In comment 14252628 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:


Foles, his first go-around with Philly, Bridgewater was playing decently pre-injury. He had Bradford playing arguably his best ball before he went down. You know more about QBs than Shurmur, so I’ll grant that. :)


This is embarrassing. Reid was the catalyst for Foles. What happened to Foles when Reid left? Bridgewater? Really? Show me his prolific career year. Bradford played okay...fine. But do you want to hang Shurmur's QB bonafides?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The thing that brings this fan comfort, is the fact that  
Big Blue '56 : 1/7/2019 4:20 pm : link
In comment 14252632 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 14252628 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


In comment 14252620 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 14252584 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:




We don’t know what he’s accomplished with KL, but he was a 4th round pick. That’s where Shurmur probably evaluated him project-wise. Haskins may go high in Round 1 and might very well be someone’s franchise guy. You’re actually are comparing a 4th rounder with a 1st rounder?



Apparently Shurmur was very high on Lauletta. A 4th round pick is a material investment.

Besides Keenum, who exactly has Shurmur molded to be this reputed QB whisperer? And please don't give me McNabb. That was Reid with Shurmur riding in the passenger seat...



Foles, his first go-around with Philly, Bridgewater was playing decently pre-injury. He had Bradford playing arguably his best ball before he went down. You know more about QBs than Shurmur, so I’ll grant that. :)


You forgot Case Keenum last year.


Jay, he mentioned Keenum, so I had no reason to. 😎
Coach K definitely fucked up Gregs  
dep026 : 1/7/2019 4:21 pm : link
Two favorite players.

Steve Wojo and Greg Paulus.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: The thing that brings this fan comfort, is the fact that  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:25 pm : link
In comment 14252636 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 14252628 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:




Foles, his first go-around with Philly, Bridgewater was playing decently pre-injury. He had Bradford playing arguably his best ball before he went down. You know more about QBs than Shurmur, so I’ll grant that. :)



This is embarrassing. Reid was the catalyst for Foles. What happened to Foles when Reid left? Bridgewater? Really? Show me his prolific career year. Bradford played okay...fine. But do you want to hang Shurmur's QB bonafides?

It's embarrassing that you're wrong. Foles had his best season under Kelly and Shurmur as OC. WITHOUT Reid in 2013 Foles threw 27 td's and 2 int's.
RE: If Haskins is as good as some of you say  
BlueLou'sBack : 1/7/2019 4:29 pm : link
In comment 14252581 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
he shouldn't be there for the Giants at 6. Time will tell.


Put me in the camp that guesses he won't be there at 6. Which is why I am studying Lock and Jones now and will start on Grier next.

Oh, I also don't think DG will pull the trigger on trading up to get Haskins. The Jags or Broncos will though, IMHO. Wild guessing of course, but Denver is already past strike 3 under Elway on the next QB search, and they are not gonna have only Keenum and Simian to trot out next year.
The only legitimate knock  
Josh in the City : 1/7/2019 4:33 pm : link
on Haskins is that it's hard to evaluate how good he truly is b/c he had so much time behind the Ohio State OL. But the kid was absolutely lights out, has a huge arm, stands tall in the pocket, scans the field, moves his eyes quickly through his progressions and throws a very accurate ball. He's not a runner at all but he has some elusiveness when he needs it. He's very young and only one yr of college experience but he also showed up and played very well in the biggest games. I truly don't understand what people dislike about his game. If he were a 2 year starter and played in a different conference I don't think anyone would question him going #1 overall.
RE: RE: If Haskins is as good as some of you say  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:33 pm : link
In comment 14252647 BlueLou'sBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14252581 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


he shouldn't be there for the Giants at 6. Time will tell.



Put me in the camp that guesses he won't be there at 6. Which is why I am studying Lock and Jones now and will start on Grier next.

Oh, I also don't think DG will pull the trigger on trading up to get Haskins. The Jags or Broncos will though, IMHO. Wild guessing of course, but Denver is already past strike 3 under Elway on the next QB search, and they are not gonna have only Keenum and Simian to trot out next year.

I think the Jags will definitely trade up for a QB. They won't want to pick behind the Giants out of fear that they will go QB.
RE: The only legitimate knock  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:34 pm : link
In comment 14252650 Josh in the City said:
Quote:
on Haskins is that it's hard to evaluate how good he truly is b/c he had so much time behind the Ohio State OL. But the kid was absolutely lights out, has a huge arm, stands tall in the pocket, scans the field, moves his eyes quickly through his progressions and throws a very accurate ball. He's not a runner at all but he has some elusiveness when he needs it. He's very young and only one yr of college experience but he also showed up and played very well in the biggest games. I truly don't understand what people dislike about his game. If he were a 2 year starter and played in a different conference I don't think anyone would question him going #1 overall.

I don't see him going through his progressions. He seems to stare down his primary receiver which will get him in trouble in the NFL. This could just be a result of his inexperience but it is something to monitor.
RE: RE: The only legitimate knock  
Josh in the City : 1/7/2019 4:40 pm : link
In comment 14252652 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 14252650 Josh in the City said:


Quote:


on Haskins is that it's hard to evaluate how good he truly is b/c he had so much time behind the Ohio State OL. But the kid was absolutely lights out, has a huge arm, stands tall in the pocket, scans the field, moves his eyes quickly through his progressions and throws a very accurate ball. He's not a runner at all but he has some elusiveness when he needs it. He's very young and only one yr of college experience but he also showed up and played very well in the biggest games. I truly don't understand what people dislike about his game. If he were a 2 year starter and played in a different conference I don't think anyone would question him going #1 overall.


I don't see him going through his progressions. He seems to stare down his primary receiver which will get him in trouble in the NFL. This could just be a result of his inexperience but it is something to monitor.


This is absolutely inaccurate (at least as it related to the second half of the season when I started watching every one of his snaps). For someone his age he seems very poised in the pocket and does a great job scanning the field with his eyes. Now that being said, it's been relatively easy for him bc he does get a lot of time in the pocket. The real test will be how flustered he gets when he inevitably faces significant pressure in his face but it's hard to determine that at this time.
Yeah  
Kyle in NY : 1/7/2019 4:43 pm : link
late in the season he absolutely was going through his progressions. He was not just a one read QB which tends to be the knock in these sorts of offenses. The time afforded by the OL certainly helps with that.
The interviews  
TommyWiseau : 1/7/2019 4:44 pm : link
and combine will be huge for Haskins. Let's see how he can do on the board
Big hard pass.  
The_Boss : 1/7/2019 4:46 pm : link
Do not waste a pick on a QB in this draft in any round. The time to do so was last spring and perhaps in 2020. OL, Edge, LB’s, FS.
All I can say is  
DonnieD89 : 1/7/2019 4:49 pm : link
Let's see what Gettleman and Shurmur do, if he is there at #6. Doubt they take him, but if they do, I have will confidence in that selection. I think they may be looking at 2020 for their future QB.
RE: The interviews  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 4:50 pm : link
In comment 14252663 TommyWiseau said:
Quote:
and combine will be huge for Haskins. Let's see how he can do on the board

Agreed.
RE: So for all you fans that don't like Haskins  
The_Boss : 1/7/2019 4:51 pm : link
In comment 14252428 Dmartin said:
Quote:
what's your plan for 2019? Another year of Eli? You realize the Giants have missed the playoffs 6/7 years and they started 1-7 again this year. Tear the band-aid off. It's over. Haskins can make all the throws and has enough mobility to be really good in this league.


My plan is to embrace sucking in 2019. If that means more Eli, so be it. Better QB options will present themselves in 2020 and ‘21.
It all depends on what they see at the Combine and individual workouts  
GFAN52 : 1/7/2019 4:52 pm : link
if Haskins is the QB of the future to them, then they'll do what's necessary to select him.
RE: RE: So for all you fans that don't like Haskins  
GFAN52 : 1/7/2019 4:53 pm : link
In comment 14252675 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14252428 Dmartin said:


Quote:


what's your plan for 2019? Another year of Eli? You realize the Giants have missed the playoffs 6/7 years and they started 1-7 again this year. Tear the band-aid off. It's over. Haskins can make all the throws and has enough mobility to be really good in this league.



My plan is to embrace sucking in 2019. If that means more Eli, so be it. Better QB options will present themselves in 2020 and ‘21.


There's always the risk other teams needing a QB will be thinking the same thing and suck in worse for a higher draft pick.
RE: The only legitimate knock  
Pep22 : 1/7/2019 4:57 pm : link
In comment 14252650 Josh in the City said:
Quote:
on Haskins is that it's hard to evaluate how good he truly is b/c he had so much time behind the Ohio State OL. But the kid was absolutely lights out, has a huge arm, stands tall in the pocket, scans the field, moves his eyes quickly through his progressions and throws a very accurate ball. He's not a runner at all but he has some elusiveness when he needs it. He's very young and only one yr of college experience but he also showed up and played very well in the biggest games. I truly don't understand what people dislike about his game. If he were a 2 year starter and played in a different conference I don't think anyone would question him going #1 overall.


I agree. If its limited to "he had a good OL" well guess what, the top QBs in 2020 (Tue, Fromm) and in 2021 (Lawrence, Fields) will have played for Bama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State. Pretty good OLs, no?
RE: Big hard pass.  
Josh in the City : 1/7/2019 5:05 pm : link
In comment 14252667 The_Boss said:
Quote:
Do not waste a pick on a QB in this draft in any round. The time to do so was last spring and perhaps in 2020. OL, Edge, LB’s, FS.


Explain what you dislike about his game.
You have to give him credit for what he has done  
Jim in Forest Hills : 1/7/2019 5:13 pm : link
he made Michigan look like Eastern Michigan out there.

that being said, it's fair to say that he is harder to evaluate because his talent just seemed superior to everything else out there.

Doesn't mean he's a bad player, just a tougher eval imo.
...  
Jay on the Island : 1/7/2019 5:25 pm : link
What I really like about Haskins is his deep ball accuracy. How many times over the past two seasons have we seen Beckham have 2-3 steps or more on a DB and Eli misses him?
RE: ...  
dep026 : 1/7/2019 5:28 pm : link
In comment 14252719 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
What I really like about Haskins is his deep ball accuracy. How many times over the past two seasons have we seen Beckham have 2-3 steps or more on a DB and Eli misses him?


Haskinsnstruggled with the deep ball for the majority of the year.
I don’t know if Haskins is the real deal  
joeinpa : 1/7/2019 5:33 pm : link
Unlike many of you who state unequivocally he s be a bust, I m willing to admit I don’t know.
RE: You have to give him credit for what he has done  
GoBlue6599 : 1/7/2019 5:34 pm : link
In comment 14252710 Jim in Forest Hills said:
Quote:
he made Michigan look like Eastern Michigan out there.

that being said, it's fair to say that he is harder to evaluate because his talent just seemed superior to everything else out there.

Doesn't mean he's a bad player, just a tougher eval imo.

Michigan had 1 of the top defense in the country.. Haskins destroyed them
RE: RE: RE: So for all you fans that don't like Haskins  
Beer Man : 1/7/2019 5:46 pm : link
In comment 14252507 Dutch77 said:
Quote:
In comment 14252478 Beer Man said:


Quote:


In comment 14252428 Dmartin said:


Quote:


what's your plan for 2019? Another year of Eli? You realize the Giants have missed the playoffs 6/7 years and they started 1-7 again this year. Tear the band-aid off. It's over. Haskins can make all the throws and has enough mobility to be really good in this league.

Basically we don't want to force a pick. At #6 you have a chance to draft an elite/impact player. Taking a QB at six,to fill a need, when you don't believe he is elite could set the team back at QB for a number of years. This team has a lot of holes to fill, and this draft is starting to look deep in some of those areas. I would not be upset if the team filled other needs, and went QB in 2020; which is shaping up to be a very strong/deep QB class. Just because this QB is the tallest midget in the room, doesn't make him a smart pick at #6.


Were you saying this last year?
Nope. Last year I said I would be happy with Barkley or Darnold. Barkley because I believed he was a generational talent, Darnold, because I believe he could be a franchise QB.
RE: RE: RE: I laugh at BBI draft experts  
Beer Man : 1/7/2019 5:48 pm : link
In comment 14252537 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 14252526 Beer Man said:


Quote:


In comment 14252487 oldutican said:


Quote:


None of you know whether Haskins is worth the pick. Even resident scout Sy seems to be unsure.

Oh come-on. We are all just giving our opinions, and none of us are experts (except maybe for Sy). But at this point, if the experts are unsure, he's probably not someone we should be discussing as the future franchise guy that you want to pick at #6; maybe his performance at the combine will clear things up a little better.


I don't know how throwing to uncovered WR's in shorts at the combine is going to clear anything up.
Funny how QB (or players in general) stock can rise or fall based on the combine (or the pro-days)
Rather  
Photoguy : 1/7/2019 5:57 pm : link
than fall into the trap of speculating, I'm going to wait to see what happens on draft day.
RE: RE: Big hard pass.  
The_Boss : 1/7/2019 6:04 pm : link
In comment 14252699 Josh in the City said:
Quote:
In comment 14252667 The_Boss said:


Quote:


Do not waste a pick on a QB in this draft in any round. The time to do so was last spring and perhaps in 2020. OL, Edge, LB’s, FS.



Explain what you dislike about his game.


Urban Meyers isn’t known to produce pro ready QB’s. Alex Smith’s career was very underwhelming. The class itself sucks. I don’t want to take a player and feel like he was forced. It’s a strong defensive draft. We have issues at just about every position on defense. I’m fairly confident when all the testing, pro days, in private interviews/workouts are completed, the data will suggest that Haskins is not worthy of #6.
RE: So for all you fans that don't like Haskins  
.McL. : 1/7/2019 6:09 pm : link
In comment 14252428 Dmartin said:
Quote:
what's your plan for 2019? Another year of Eli? You realize the Giants have missed the playoffs 6/7 years and they started 1-7 again this year. Tear the band-aid off. It's over. Haskins can make all the throws and has enough mobility to be really good in this league.

O have said this many times, the plan at QB for 2019 is immaterial from a game results standpoint. The Giants are highly unlikely to be a winning team no matter who it is. So the point is to get that guy who has the BEST CHANCE to succeed...

Here is an article from Football Outsiders. They developed a metric to evaluate college QBs. And almost every successful metric in evaluating college QB considers experience. FO considered
Quote:

1) completion percentage;
2) college games played;
3) age when drafted;
4) experience in a pro-style offense;
5) and functional mobility.

Notice that they use 2 experience related metrics #2 college games played and #4 experience in a pro style offense.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/beating-nfl-drafting-qbs

As I said before almost every single attempt to develop metrics on evaluating college QBs includes game experience. Bill Parcells famously said he only considers 3 year starters.

So, on average, a guy that has only 1 year in a QB friendly system such as OSU has a much higher bust rate.

Just to illustrate the point, I am not claiming that these are real number, just illustrative. Lets say you are building up your team and need a new QB that you want to get through the draft. You will suck until you have your new QB, but you have invest 5 years in that guy. Only after 5 years will you know if he is a success or a bust, and if he is a bust you can move on...
In the first year of your QB search there is a player that was a 1 year starter in an offense like OSU. He would have an 60% probability of being a bust.
In the second year of your QB search, there are several players somebody who are 3 year starters from a mixed Spread/Pro Offensive style like Fromm at Georgia. These guys have a bust probability of 30%.

Also lets assume that success in either case equates to the same level of play. I.E. they have the same ceiling.

One last assumption, in either case, if your guy busts after 5 years your next pick has a 45% bust factor (squarely between the 2 60% guy and the 30% guys)

Ok lets do the match to see on average how many years out of the next 15 your team will suck being stuck in QB hell...

Option 1: pick the 60% bust factor guy year 1:
.6 * (5 + (.45 * ( 5 + (.45 * 5))))= 4.96 years

Option 3: wait a year and pick the player with the 30% bust rate
1 + .3 * (5 + (.45 * ( 5 + (.45 * 5)))) = 3.48

Now I am not claiming these bust rates are 100% accurate statistics, I used them to make the point. If you go with 1st guy, you might not suck at all going forward, but you are more likely he will fail and you waste 5 years and try again. In the second scenario, even though you are guaranteeing that you will suck for 1 additional year, getting the player with the lower bust percentage later still yields a better result. If repeated enough times, the average number of years your team will suck is much lower in the second scenario, where you pick the player with the lower percentage bust rate.

Now the real model for this is much more complex, and in fact the model above for the 30% bust rate player extends over 16 years not 15, so it needs to be adjusted down slightly.

The point of this is to show that in whatever model teams are using to predict the success rate of QBs, that if there is enough qualitative difference in the evaluation metrics between the 2 candidates, it can be better to wait a year for the better candidate.

Haskins, because of the lack of experience, and the system he played in, has a higher probability of being a bust, as measured by the most successful metrics for college QBs out there, than will players like Tua and Fromm (and even Herbert) when they come out. No metrics out there are perfect, there are players that break the metrics and force them to be re-evaluated. Sometimes they are just outliers. It happens.

Keep in mind we have another player in the NFL right now that was very similar to Haskins when he came out. Mitch Trubitsky. The jury is stil out on him. But do you think right now, that Chicago wishes they took Mahomes who had much more starting experience in college?
As  
AcidTest : 1/7/2019 6:24 pm : link
of now, I don't want Haskins at #6, and would be surprised if the Giants drafted him with that pick.

My guess is another day three QB to compete with Lauletta.
Haskins is worthy of pick 6  
ajr2456 : 1/7/2019 6:30 pm : link
Using assets to move up is a different story.

I’d wager the 2020 class isn’t going to be as highly regarded at this time next year.

They’re not the prospects they’re made out to be by some. A lot of question marks.
Draft to Fix What Lost you Many of those Games This Year  
jpetuch : 1/7/2019 6:34 pm : link
Defense and OL with BPA
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