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The Giants Might Not Be That Bad.

TC : 1/7/2019 4:02 pm
While they’re not close to being a dominating team, they may be closer than I thought to a winning one. There’s a lot of black and white thinking about the roster, fueled I think by sports “journalism” where all issues must be extreme. Everything is either “worst ever” or “best ever.”

Looking at the Giants' roster, there’s plenty of need for improvement. But the Giants have a good number of talented, quality players, though they also have other positions where the talent is barely NFL level. Sometimes I read that every one of those positions must be upgraded to an exceptional talent before the team can succeed. And I don’t think that’s true.

The Giants lost 5 games by a combined 10 points. Only 2 points average per game. And many of those games came down to a late game inability to hold onto a lead due to both defensive and offensive insufficiencies. You don’t need an entire turnover of talent level, or improvement in coaching decisions, to make up that difference.

I know the focus is on the OL, and it certainly needs improvement, but frankly, I’d be tempted to invest more significantly in improving the defense. A few better DB’s, a LB and an ER, or two, and this picture could be very different. A few better decisions in play calling thrown in, and this could at least be a 10-6 team.
true, but the position most in need of an upgrade  
GiantNatty : 1/7/2019 4:08 pm : link
is QB, and upgrading at QB is easier said than done.
SB, OBJ, Engram, Shep, Penny, Hernandez are a pretty good corps  
Big Blue '56 : 1/7/2019 4:08 pm : link
to build around, with or without Eli as a placeholder. Hill, Tomlinson, Collins, Carter, hopefully Beal, possibly McIntosh, are a decent corps as well. We need to have an excellent draft and UDFA with the OL and rebuild the the D in some key areas.

Fill in with still viable but lesser tier complementary FAs
I don't have that warm and fuzzy  
Beer Man : 1/7/2019 4:19 pm : link
Forgetting the franchise QB for a moment:
- The right side of the OL stinks (including C)
- Defense is a mess
- We don't have a pass rush
- Can't cover anyone over the middle
- DBs consisted of Jack Rabbit, Collins, and bunch of spare parts (Collins is a FA, and Jack Rabbit could be a cap causality)

Too many holes at premium positions
needs  
Thegratefulhead : 1/7/2019 4:23 pm : link
I believe we are a QB, 2-3 OL, 1 DL, 2 LBs, Safety and 1 corner away from competing. If we want to win a championship we need depth too. So ad number to the above position. Bad drafting has left us with no depth. Starter goes down and we signing off practice squads of other teams. Every single time another team cuts a player we think.....kick the tires?...That is a problem.
RE: true, but the position most in need of an upgrade  
Johnny5 : 1/7/2019 4:23 pm : link
In comment 14252616 GiantNatty said:
Quote:
is QB, and upgrading at QB is easier said than done.

The OL needs an upgrade before the QB. Granted we need to draft/procure a QB for the future no doubt but with adequate blocking Eli has shown he is still capable. Better play at Center and RT, as well as LB and safety will go a long way for this team as constructed. LB and safety play would be helped by additional pass rush as well.
Their LBs are pitiful, they get no pass rush,  
yatqb : 1/7/2019 4:26 pm : link
they have no ball hawking safeties, their CB depth is quite slim, and they need 2 OL AND depth everywhere. How many games did they lose in the last minutes?

We need to re-tool the entire defense while strengthening the OL AND adding the QB of the future.

TC, I agree that we're not far from a .500 team, because there's a lot of mediocrity across the league. But I'd posit that we're pretty far from a championship contender, and need to get lucky to get to that elite status.

Landing a great QB would sure help that process. Hopefully we get one some time soon, because as much as I love Eli, he's certainly on the downside of his career.
Considering we lost to 3 of the 8 remaining playoff teams  
Eli Wilson : 1/7/2019 4:40 pm : link
in the last minute of games the second half of the year, I tend to agree.

Just need to make a couple of very important moves, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

I'd like to see us not give up big chunks of yardage over the middle of the field for once. Maybe start there with a LB and FS and add on to that.
RE: RE: true, but the position most in need of an upgrade  
GiantNatty : 1/7/2019 4:41 pm : link
In comment 14252641 Johnny5 said:
Quote:
In comment 14252616 GiantNatty said:


Quote:


is QB, and upgrading at QB is easier said than done.


The OL needs an upgrade before the QB. Granted we need to draft/procure a QB for the future no doubt but with adequate blocking Eli has shown he is still capable. Better play at Center and RT, as well as LB and safety will go a long way for this team as constructed. LB and safety play would be helped by additional pass rush as well.


You hear this a lot - "you give him adequate time and he's still capable." Teams that win consistently have QBs that are better than "capable." "Capable" right now still has him as the worst QB in the division (and that includes Foles (though at this point unless Smith comes back, maybe we have a slight over the Redskins)) and that just doesn't cut it.

Sorry to disagree, but I stand by the original comment - either we upgrade at QB or we're looking at additional lost seasons.
It's funny  
Go Terps : 1/7/2019 4:44 pm : link
Back when the Giants were actually good we all used to make fun of the Redskins and their fans for always being one of those teams that was an offseason champ. Now we're one of those teams.
Holes can be covered...  
Brown_Hornet : 1/7/2019 4:47 pm : link
...by surrounding them with talent.
IMO, the Giants will be a playoff team if they add good players here:
- RT
- ER
- ILB
- S

and Beal works out.
Upgrade QB  
Samiam : 1/7/2019 4:49 pm : link
Upgrade the OL and I believe you would be upgrading the QB position. If Eli has a better running game with Barkley, I think the passing game would improve by a lot.
...  
Pascal4554 : 1/7/2019 4:55 pm : link
My attitude changed this season. No longer giving the Giants the benefit of the doubt. I'll believe it when I see it. However, I do think the Giants improved this year, but I've lost faith in Eli. I don't think he is taking this team any where except 8-8.
I agree with OP  
5BowlsSoon : 1/7/2019 4:59 pm : link
Based on this season, we could have easily had more wins than 5. Heck, if nothing else, we were in great position to have won the last two games. So, 7-9 definitely looks a lot better than 5-11.

In addition, we traded away two starters (Apple and Snacks) and we had two very good starters on defense out the last two weeks in Ogletree and Collins. Not to mention the great Odell out both of those weeks plus two more.

So yeah, take away the two trades and the guys injured, we clearly would have had more wins, which obviously makes us not as bad as we look on paper.
Here is your main fallacy  
.McL. : 1/7/2019 5:01 pm : link
Quote:
I read that every one of those positions must be upgraded to an exceptional talent before the team can succeed


No absolutely not, we don't need "exceptional talent" levels across the board. We need viable competent NFL starting caliber players. I.E. at least league average players, instead of the league bottom players that we regularly trot out that might not even make it as backups on other teams (I.E. Wheeler, Pulley, Riley and don't get me started on the LBs, etc!). In addition to manning these positions with competent players, we do need some exceptional talent, but certainly not everywhere.

When you see lists of positions that need upgrading, it means we don't have a competent player there and it needs to be upgraded to at least league average. Here is my list that covers the next 3 off seasons, this means some positions like LT will appear because Solder's contract will expire and he will be 34...

Over the next 3 off seasons:
LT
C
RT
RG (maybe, but I think resigning Brown will suffice)
#2 WR
QB
DE (must be disruptive pass rushing type)
NT (can be a part time player, but we need a true NT)
LB/ER
ILB (need 2)
OLB (can cover or rush, maybe Carter but he needs more development)
2 CB (maybe 3 if we can't find a starter between Beal & Haley)
FS
SS (if collins is not resigned)

That is 13 positions need some sort of upgrade. That doesn't even account for attrition. Players have career ending or limiting injuries all the time. So its fair to expect us to lose 1 of OBJ, SS, EE, SB, WH, DT, BJH, Carter, or some other player we draft or sign in the mean time.

That is a ton of players...
Lets be optimistic but not drink the kool aid  
MotownGIANTS : 1/7/2019 5:05 pm : link
we can at least fight fir the division and a WC spot.

3-13 to 6-10 to 10/6 or 11/5 with a good FA and draft

RT upgrade (draft)
C Upgrade (draft/FA)
RG gets better more gel time ... more time in the system
FS upgrade (draft/FA)
CB depth (Beal actually is the steal we hope for)
Engram's late season blossom is the trend he continues
Utilize Engram better
Edge rusher (draft)

The trenches can be addressed in rds 1 and 2 ... with multiple 4s and 5s we make a move back into the 3rd. If DG is right about Beal we have a fighters chance with good drafting again this year and some luck in FA.

It is not as hopeless as people want it to be .... nor is it a bed of roses.

RE: RE: RE: true, but the position most in need of an upgrade  
Johnny5 : 1/7/2019 5:08 pm : link
In comment 14252661 GiantNatty said:
Quote:
In comment 14252641 Johnny5 said:


Quote:


In comment 14252616 GiantNatty said:


Quote:


is QB, and upgrading at QB is easier said than done.


The OL needs an upgrade before the QB. Granted we need to draft/procure a QB for the future no doubt but with adequate blocking Eli has shown he is still capable. Better play at Center and RT, as well as LB and safety will go a long way for this team as constructed. LB and safety play would be helped by additional pass rush as well.



You hear this a lot - "you give him adequate time and he's still capable." Teams that win consistently have QBs that are better than "capable." "Capable" right now still has him as the worst QB in the division (and that includes Foles (though at this point unless Smith comes back, maybe we have a slight over the Redskins)) and that just doesn't cut it.

Sorry to disagree, but I stand by the original comment - either we upgrade at QB or we're looking at additional lost seasons.

It's ok if you disagree... lol. I don't say I'm right and you're wrong but I definitely have a different opinion on Eli. Many people feel that way about Eli, but he has had crap blocking for him since 2012. It's no coincidence that 8 games into the season the OL started to play better, and the whole offense became more comfortable with Shurmurs system. Even with just slightly better OL play we started to score some points. Eli has proved to me he can still play, but we NEED better center and RT play at a minimum.
Whatever gets you to sleep at night  
rsjem1979 : 1/7/2019 5:10 pm : link
The Giants also had 4 wins by a total of 15 points, 2 of which came against horrendous opponents.

RE: SB, OBJ, Engram, Shep, Penny, Hernandez are a pretty good corps  
NYRiese : 1/7/2019 5:23 pm : link
Whether Hill and Tomilson are nothing more than average is yet to be determined.
RE: I agree with OP  
MetsAreBack : 1/7/2019 5:45 pm : link
In comment 14252690 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
Based on this season, we could have easily had more wins than 5. Heck, if nothing else, we were in great position to have won the last two games. So, 7-9 definitely looks a lot better than 5-11.

In addition, we traded away two starters (Apple and Snacks) and we had two very good starters on defense out the last two weeks in Ogletree and Collins. Not to mention the great Odell out both of those weeks plus two more.

So yeah, take away the two trades and the guys injured, we clearly would have had more wins, which obviously makes us not as bad as we look on paper.



LOL... so if no one ever got hurt, we could have gone 7-9!!
biggest need is right tackle  
bc4life : 1/7/2019 5:58 pm : link
and there is no obvious replacement right now

think they can address pass rush in the draft
They are pretty bad in my view  
The_Boss : 1/7/2019 6:24 pm : link
If not for Chase Daniels, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Mark Sanchez, this is very likely a 3-13 team again. Remember SF with a backup QB took us to like the final play of the game. My expectations heading into 2019 are and will likely remain low. They have essentially no shot at improving appreciably enough to surpass Dallas and Philadelphia inside the division. I could easily see them losing every NFC North game next year as well. 6-10 is what I’m expecting next year and (perhaps) a new GM and HC search.
RE: RE: I agree with OP  
ajr2456 : 1/7/2019 7:51 pm : link
In comment 14252730 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
In comment 14252690 5BowlsSoon said:


Quote:


Based on this season, we could have easily had more wins than 5. Heck, if nothing else, we were in great position to have won the last two games. So, 7-9 definitely looks a lot better than 5-11.

In addition, we traded away two starters (Apple and Snacks) and we had two very good starters on defense out the last two weeks in Ogletree and Collins. Not to mention the great Odell out both of those weeks plus two more.

So yeah, take away the two trades and the guys injured, we clearly would have had more wins, which obviously makes us not as bad as we look on paper.




LOL... so if no one ever got hurt, we could have gone 7-9!!


We also could have had less wins than 5 too. They blew the Chicago game but pulled it out. Tampa was close.
RE: biggest need is right tackle  
Ssanders9816 : 1/7/2019 7:56 pm : link
In comment 14252743 bc4life said:
Quote:
and there is no obvious replacement right now

think they can address pass rush in the draft


Yep, fix both lines and worry about the rest later. Eli is not the problem
...  
christian : 1/7/2019 7:58 pm : link
The mode average margin of victory in the NFL is something like 4 points.

The entire construction of the league is to build parity, and the underlying "forces" (subjective officiating, rules committee etc.) promote close games.

Pick any random team, and I'd be surprised if you can't find 5-6 games at 1 possession on the final drive.

The separation is literally in the close games.
3-13 season  
LawrenceTaylor56 : 1/7/2019 7:59 pm : link
Followed by a 5-11 season.

1 winning season in the last 7 years. Yeah. We’re that bad.
RE: They are pretty bad in my view  
gmenatlarge : 1/7/2019 8:32 pm : link
In comment 14252774 The_Boss said:
Quote:
If not for Chase Daniels, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Mark Sanchez, this is very likely a 3-13 team again. Remember SF with a backup QB took us to like the final play of the game. My expectations heading into 2019 are and will likely remain low. They have essentially no shot at improving appreciably enough to surpass Dallas and Philadelphia inside the division. I could easily see them losing every NFC North game next year as well. 6-10 is what I’m expecting next year and (perhaps) a new GM and HC search.


+1 Just looking at the amount of points they lost by is fools gold. This team is bottom of the league on both lines OL and DL, they can’t stop anyone and they can’t run the ball when they have to. They are no match foe Philly and Dallas and will probably lose those four games next year, looking at another 5-11 team next year unless they get real lucky in the draft and FA.
RE: They are pretty bad in my view  
BigBlueinChicago : 1/7/2019 8:43 pm : link
In comment 14252774 The_Boss said:
Quote:
If not for Chase Daniels, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Mark Sanchez, this is very likely a 3-13 team again. Remember SF with a backup QB took us to like the final play of the game. My expectations heading into 2019 are and will likely remain low. They have essentially no shot at improving appreciably enough to surpass Dallas and Philadelphia inside the division. I could easily see them losing every NFC North game next year as well. 6-10 is what I’m expecting next year and (perhaps) a new GM and HC search.


Plus...even with that, they had VERY GOOD health relatively speaking.

There was not a plague of injuries to any one area like last year. Anyone want to place bets on good health like that 2 years in a row?
RE: ...  
rsjem1979 : 1/7/2019 8:46 pm : link
In comment 14252878 christian said:
Quote:
The mode average margin of victory in the NFL is something like 4 points.

The entire construction of the league is to build parity, and the underlying "forces" (subjective officiating, rules committee etc.) promote close games.

Pick any random team, and I'd be surprised if you can't find 5-6 games at 1 possession on the final drive.

The separation is literally in the close games.


I chose two teams not at random, two teams that drafted a QB in 2018.

Jets - 6 one score losses, beaten by the Titans who scored a TD with :36 left and the Browns who scored with 4 minutes to go. Trailed the Patriots 20-13 going to the 4th.

Cardinals - 4 losses by 3 points or less. Seahawks beat them twice with FGs at the gun. Trailed KC 20-14 going to the 4th.

It is pathetic how many people are trying to polish the turd that was a 5-11 season after a 3-13 one.
RE: true, but the position most in need of an upgrade  
Dr. D : 1/7/2019 8:59 pm : link
In comment 14252616 GiantNatty said:
Quote:
is QB, and upgrading at QB is easier said than done.

Despite horrible OL play for half the season, the Giants led the NFC East in scoring and Eli had one of his better seasons statistically.

The problem is they also led the NFC, by far, in points against and how many times did the Giants blow a late lead?

I know it's popular to shit on Eli, but the facts DO NOT support the idea that QB is the position most in need of an upgrade.
No QB would've succeeded behind our OL  
Dr. D : 1/7/2019 9:09 pm : link
for the first 7-8 games this season. Yeah, some running QBs might've escaped a little better for a few weeks, but how many of them don't make it through a season, never mind 14 of them.

How did golden boy in Green Bay do this year? Is he shot? Or does he need a better team around him?

Tend to agree but we still need quite a few parts  
Bluesbreaker : 1/7/2019 9:23 pm : link
And the Draft needs to be stellar
In Free agency we can add a RT and a Center draft
Two more say a LT prospect and a Center .
That said I still think we go Edge DE at #6
and go O-line in the 2nd move up into the 3rd for another
O-line Player a Guard/Center rest of the draft focus
on the defense .
More nonsense form another gullible OP  
giantstock : 1/7/2019 9:40 pm : link
When will some of you learn-- the end of the season teams look at Gmen as though they suck just like when Gmen were good you'd look at a crummy team.

Stop with this nonsense we were close. it's such as horse's ass statement. They were 5-11 - that;s real. They won most of their games vs 2nd string QB's.
Using the basic Pythagorean wins model...  
Dan in the Springs : 1/7/2019 9:59 pm : link
the Giants would have been expected to win 6.96 wins this season. In other words, they are -1.96 against the model.

Compare that to the other NFC teams:

Dallas: 8.42 wins actual 10 +1.58
Philly: 8.5 wins actual 9 +0.5
Wash: 5.74 wins actual 7 +1.26

North:
Chi: 11.51 wins actual 12 +0.49
Minny: 8.51 wins actual 8 -0.51
GB: 7.41 wins actual 6 -1.41
Det: 7 wins actual 6 -1

South:
NO: 11.19 wins actual 13 +1.81
Car: 7.85 wins actual 7 -0.85
Atl: 7.8 wins actual 7 -0.8
TB: 6.52 wins actual 5 -1.52

West:
LA: 10.87 wins actual 13 +2.13
Sea: 9.95 wins actual 10 +0.05
SF: 5.78 wins actual 4 -1.78
Ari: 2.9 wins actual 3 +0.1

So, the five teams who underperformed the most compared to the model in order:

NYG -1.96
SF -1.78
TB -1.52
GB -1.41
Det -1

This suggests that the Giants might be poised for a rebound next year. Admittedly this is an extremely simplistic formula (countless improved variations exist but I don't want to do those calculations by hand when they will be published in a couple of months), and furthermore, stats like these are for losers. I don't mind looking at them though because they help objectify the argument a little bit.

Of the teams who might expect to gain, the model predicts the Giants to be on top, but what about within the division? Well the model also suggests that the NFC East is the division that can expect regression from all our competitors.

In other words, 5 wins sucks, period. But perhaps there is some merit to the argument that we might be a little closer to a 6 or 7 win team than to a 3 or 4 win team.

Just for comparative purposes, these are the results for the 2017 and 2016 NYG teams.

2017 4.06 wins actual 3 -1.06
2016 8.83 wins actual 11 +2.17

This suggests that the 2016 was good at winning the close games, much better than the model predicts and the 2017 team was not as good.

Anyway, just a different way of considering the OP question.
The key takeaway...  
Dan in the Springs : 1/7/2019 10:04 pm : link
of that model anyway is not that the Giants are better than their record suggests. It suggests though that the Giants are one of the worst teams at winning close games and that's an area to focus on.

Funny, isn't that what kind of what we heard from DG & PS?

Even still, the model picks them as the 12th best team in the conference, ahead of only Arizona, San Francisco, Tampa Bay and Washington. Only 6 teams make the playoffs. So please don't take my posts as saying they should have been contending this year for a playoff spot.
They won 5 games  
MookGiants : 1/7/2019 10:11 pm : link
4 of which were against backup QBs. 2 of them 3rd string.

They are bad, really bad. The defense is a total train wreck going forward. The offense has no future at QB currently and a shaky offensive line.

They were 1-7 and the season was pretty much over before halloween. The division collapsed around us and then the second the Giants had a prayer to maybe open the door for a playoff run, they totally pissed all over themselves in Philadelphia as usual.

Currently the roster is really bad. The coach is a loser.

If they get a franchise QB things can and will change in a hurry. Having zero pass rush and holes all over the defense combined with a shaky offensive line and no quarterback is a recipe for a bad football team.

I hope they draft a pass rusher in 1st round and realize how far they are away from winning. I dont see any path to even making the playoffs in 2019. 2020 is a different story, but they can make that difficult if they make shortsighted moves this off-season.

This team was a lot closer to being the worst team in the league than they were being a playoff team this year.
polishing  
MookGiants : 1/7/2019 10:16 pm : link
the turd that was 5-11 after 3-13 is a good way to put it.

The Giants were easier to watch this year, but not much better than they were in 2017.

This team is rotten. What us fans think really doesn't matter (although I do think the fans can influence John Mara as we saw with how he handled the aftermath of the Eli benching) but I just pray Gettleman realizes how bad this roster is. Most of it isn't his fault, but every move they make this off-season should be made looking ahead to the future rather than trying to contend in 2019.

Even the most optimistic fan on here would have a hard time seeing a path to the Giants contending next year. Too many holes nearly everywhere.
...  
christian : 1/7/2019 10:22 pm : link
The offense very clearly improved later in the year. That's a good sign. It was always going to be rough starting off.

There was plenty of stupid optimism on here (don't believe me, Google BBI and prediction). No way. Not with 3/5 of a new line, a new scheme, and no depth at WR.

No new system on paper, but there will be plenty of new faces. Likely new 3/5 of a
line. Hopefully some depth at WR.

The defense on the otherhand needs tons of talent. Outside of DT is there a position settled on that unit?
RE: They are pretty bad in my view  
GiantsGorilla1980s : 1/8/2019 6:47 am : link
In comment 14252774 The_Boss said:
Quote:
If not for Chase Daniels, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Mark Sanchez, this is very likely a 3-13 team again. Remember SF with a backup QB took us to like the final play of the game. My expectations heading into 2019 are and will likely remain low. They have essentially no shot at improving appreciably enough to surpass Dallas and Philadelphia inside the division. I could easily see them losing every NFC North game next year as well. 6-10 is what I’m expecting next year and (perhaps) a new GM and HC search.



Alot of people think the giants have a easy schedule next year. In my opinion they do not.
So the Giants end up say 7-9 or 8-8....  
GFAN52 : 1/8/2019 7:08 am : link
say "Hello to My Little Friend"... QB hell.
Losing close games  
joeinpa : 1/8/2019 8:07 am : link
Losing late in games, is no reason for optimism. It simply indicates in crunch time, when intensity is at it s highest, Giants were consistently outmanned.

It s the NFL games should be close. But playmakers step up in close games and make winning plays, Giants just don’t do this.

5-11 with 3 wins against poor teams is not a sign they are close. Hope the Giants don’t take this view.
RE: I don't have that warm and fuzzy  
GeofromNJ : 1/8/2019 12:12 pm : link
In comment 14252635 Beer Man said:
Quote:
Forgetting the franchise QB for a moment:
- The right side of the OL stinks (including C)
- Defense is a mess
- We don't have a pass rush
- Can't cover anyone over the middle
- DBs consisted of Jack Rabbit, Collins, and bunch of spare parts (Collins is a FA, and Jack Rabbit could be a cap causality)

Too many holes at premium positions

Agreed.
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