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NFT: Mets News: David Wright to become special advisor to Mets

pjcas18 : 1/7/2019 4:24 pm

David Wright will assume a new role with the club as Special Advisor to #Mets COO Jeff Wilpon and Brodie Van Wagenen. In a related move, the organization and David mutually agreed to his release from the current roster.

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Eric  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 11:03 am : link
No, I don’t think they are done in the pen. But yeah, I consider Diaz Familia way better than Familia Swarz. Still have Lugo and Ges, so no difference there. Blevins, I’m on record for bring him back cheap. Ramos, yeah I think they’ll find a few comparable arms to Ramos by the time it’s all said and done. Once again, a ton of the young arms, not counting on them, but one or two takes a baby step forward and thinks look quite differently quickly. Difference is they don’t count on that like they did last year...

Dan, any comment that doesn’t start with “Shecky, you know I love you but” always worry me, but I’ll accept the offshoots of that lol. Good point about the minors. But take out the names. If I told you they’d trade two top five guys. And five ten to twenty guys. And we’d solidify the C, BP, bench, and a starting 2b - no, I don’t think anyone would be excited about that. BUT, that’s kind of the floor of what they got in return, compared to the ceiling of what the prospects could become...
Still  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 11:06 am : link
can't believe Duquette thought the Mets could land Will Smith for Plawecki. On what planet?
Dozier  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 11:07 am : link
a Nat, 1 year 9. Love that move at that commitment.
RE: I  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 11:08 am : link
In comment 14256688 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
advocated going after Broxton so I don't want to shit on him but lets be frank here if he repeats what he's done the past 2 seasons he's not even a guy we want for all of 2019 let alone a "long term" bench piece. It could happen but last 2 seasons .213/.296/.419. Nobody wants THAT for multiple seasons.


Lol, young is relative, and to relative to me he’s a baby lol. “Young” is in reference to 3-5 years. Bruxton has upside if he can start to hit the ball, which no I do not think the Mets or Davis will magically unlock. But he’s a star if it happens. A lotto ticket. At worst, he is a very good bench, short term starter to replace an injured guy. Seriously, the team has been lacking that for a looooong time. Same with Davis.

Statistically. The odds of a prospect ever making it as a borderline starter for 3+ years are very very low. Especially a low A prospect...
RE: Dozier  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 11:11 am : link
In comment 14256700 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
a Nat, 1 year 9. Love that move at that commitment.

Lol, does that answer the magically question everyoneasked the other day “why would the Mets be interested in him??”

Think you’ll see some more of these types of deals as guys realize one year deals are the way to go. Teams DO NOT want to hand out long term eras anymore. Would LOVE lemahieu, and Lowrie still bouncing around...
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 11:12 am : link
really loved the Brewers/Grandal deal. Yes, he cost them a pick. Big deal. 96 win team adding a 3-4 win player.
I'd be careful counting on Lugo  
Metnut : 1/10/2019 11:16 am : link
to be a bullpen piece when the rotation still has Matz and Vargas in it.

Vargas had a FIP over 5 last year, isn't exactly a pillar of health, and will be 36 next year. Matz looks like he can be a solid #4 starter but counting on a healthy season from him would defy past experience.

Maybe one or both of those guys will hit the "high" end of their projection range and be solid back-enders who throw 175 innings, but what's the backup plan? It's more likely than not (just given the nature of pitchers in general, Thor and Wheeler's background in particular put aside) that at least one of the big 3 will miss time at some point.

What's the plan when something goes wrong? If you're counting on Lugo in the pen, then who is the next man up if first half 2/3 of the season Vargas shows up or Matz has some random forearm issue?

The offseason isn't over yet, so I hope they really fortify the pitching staff with a quality addition or two given how low the payroll currently is. Adding a premium bullpen piece would allow us to truly deploy Lugo as a flex weapon. Adding a 2 WAR+ starter would let Vargas be the 6th starter/longman that he's more suited to being at this point in his career and ensure that we don't have to put trash like Oswalt or whoever on the mount when the inevitable injury happens.
RE: I  
Metnut : 1/10/2019 11:18 am : link
In comment 14256718 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
really loved the Brewers/Grandal deal. Yes, he cost them a pick. Big deal. 96 win team adding a 3-4 win player.


Great deal for them.

I liked Ramos for us because I thought we'd still be making major additions given how cheap Ramos was. I'm still waiting.
Brewers  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 11:23 am : link
may snipe Marwin Gonzalez now.
RE: I  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 11:32 am : link
In comment 14256718 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
really loved the Brewers/Grandal deal. Yes, he cost them a pick. Big deal. 96 win team adding a 3-4 win player.


Lol, the kick in the ass to the Dodgers are that the Brewers are a “poor” team lol
Since I didn’t attract the negativity I expected  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 11:43 am : link
C HUGEi provement. Can expect 3-4 wins here
1B. Love Alonso’s power. 250 35 HR 3-4 winbopper for $500k. He is no A Gon, but...
2B. Great leadership for the young Latin kids, professional hitter. 3-4 wins again
SS a ton of growth from Rosario here. 4 wins
3B only position I’d worry about, but great depth most teams don’t have. After Frazier you’ve got McNeiland Davis to battle it out. Could be anywhere from 1-4 wins, biggest question mark. A certain FA would go a long way to solving that...
RF Nimmo. Hard to expect him to match last year. But since this is an optimistic projection, why not ask a young kid to grow further in his second full season? 4 wins+
LF Conforto, finallysettles in healthy and experienced. Lock him up BEFORE the big season. 4 wins
CF Legares/Broxton won’t hit much, but won’t need to. 2 wins from defense till Ces comes back and Nimmo/Conforto take over. Another 3 wins from a motivated Ces when he comes back...

SP. sure JdG and Wheeler can’t be expected to repeat. But Thor will be the best pitcher in baseball by year end. LOCK HIM UP. I even expect Matz to have a pretty good year and would lock him up cheap for three years and options. TRADE FOR BAUER!!!! Personally I’d putLugo back in the rotation as a savvy starter.

BP. Diaz is shutdown and Familia is pretty freakin top notch as a setup man. I don’t think they’re done here either, so incomplete grade

Bench - no comparison to years past. McNeil or Frazier. Davis and Broxton. TdA. Compared to Flores and a black hole of years past. Got some power on the bench. Got some speed. Got some guys who can start if necessary for a coup,e of weeks. Some potential upside. This here is the biggest difference in the 19 team vs previous couple of years.
We’ve added 11 wins in fWAR  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 12:04 pm : link
From our acquisitions and lost nada from a team that was riddled with injuries last year. I got us as a wild card contender now with a lot less question marks than years passed and I don’t think we are done.
Excerpt from one of my favorite writers Eno Sarris  
Metnut : 1/10/2019 12:10 pm : link
on his over/under picks for the year. He likes the over on the Mets. He also mentions the rotation depth issue that I just posted about an hour ago... smart guy!

"Mets Over 83.5
Talking about money with the Mets is always difficult. They spent $151 million last year on payroll, and they just added Hector Santiago on a deal that would push this year’s payroll to $151 million should he make the roster. They might be done spending.

The good news, however, is that they just negotiated a deal that sends David Wright to the front office and may save them — along with the Yoenis Céspedes insurance money — as much as $20 million in 2019, according to Ken Davidoff. Will they spend it now or on a mid-season acquisition? Who knows, but at least they aren’t tapped out before the season starts. (In theory, anyway).

The Mets have a good rotation! But it sounds kind of meh to say they have a top ten rotation. Obviously, the issue is health, especially behind their ace. Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler have all had their share of injuries in the past few years.

But health is a major source of variance when it comes to team projections. Should those three put in 170 innings each, the team projections change. Because on quality alone, the Mets are right there with the best rotations in baseball. Check out how they look when it comes to projected strikeouts minus walks next year, among starters with at least 20 starts.

Team Top 60 K-BB Starters
Dodgers 5
Indians 5
Red Sox 5
Astros 4
Mets 4
Yankeees 4
That’s a good group to be in.

Where they don’t have depth in the rotation right now — sorries to screwball slinger Santiago — they do have depth on the infield. Between J.D. Davis’ power upside, Jeff McNeil’s extreme contact abilities, Amed Rosario’s up and down plate approach, and Peter Alonso’s tree trunk arms, the Mets have four young options that could be better than their projections.

Should those players improve, and the rotation show good health, the Mets could easily leave their projection in the dust. And their projection already says they’re a decent bet to be better than the Vegas win line."
the biggest issue right now is proven depth - emphasis on 'proven'  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 1:09 pm : link
they've acquired some depth guys, presumably with upside, but they aren't proven (with the exception of Broxton). This is the 1 year deal phase of the offseason, they need:

2 arms in the BP (1 lefty and 1 with late inning experience)
1 more catcher for ST in the event Nido still can't hit and tda still can't stay healthy (both more likely than not)
1 or more SP options in the event Vargas still sucks and Lugo needs to stay in the pen
1 backup SS option in the event Guillorme needs to go back to AAA

Not all of those guys need guaranteed MLB contracts, but it wouldn't be hard to fill every one of those spots with a decent veteran at a reasonable amount of money. Blake Parker got just $2.5m. Jon Jay got $4m. That's potentially 2-3 wins right there. Spending another $15m on 3-4 depth guys could be the difference between 85 wins and 90.

Also I'd bring back Blevins on a ST invite. Yes he got tagged last year, but he's still only 35 years old and his velocity didn't drop. In 2017 he was as dominant against lefties as any reliever in baseball. Held them under .200 and only gave up 1 xbh (a double) in 34 innings.
Roster management  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 1:39 pm : link
There is only one more spot open on the 40. So the maxguaranteed deals you can currently offer is one. Without risking a bullpen arm being waived.

On Opening Day there will be a spot from Ces opening on the 60. Soone spring training invite can make the roster without risk of losing a body from the 40.

Not saying there aren’t guys you would hesitate to lose. There’s 5 JAGS on the roster. But everyone throws a hissy fit when one is lost. Just keep in mind the 40.
Lugo is a 100% proven entity  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 1:45 pm : link
In the pen after last year if that’s where he’s used. He was fantastic there actually. Gsellman isn’t “special” but he’s about what most teams have for their 4th or 5th option also.

Let’s stop acting like we have Diaz/Familia and tumbleweeds. We’ll still add a loogy and maybe even another guy and then we also have a slew of talented upside options in Bashlor, D Smith, Hanhold, ect. We also have plenty of long man options...

Pens in great shape with another addition or two.
Cody Allen gives up on being a closer  
Shecky : 1/10/2019 2:00 pm : link
I’d do a cartwheel, and that’s not a pretty sight
Cheaper and more of a sure thang that’s Ottavino.
I’d feel pretty good with our SP followed by a trio of Familia, Diaz and Allen. I wouldn’t care who we used in the pen in the games we were losing 6-2 in the 7th...
Machado/Harper as a cherry on top ;)
Cody Allen  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 2:41 pm : link
And a lefty like Avilan and you’re done with the pen.
Solid move  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 2:47 pm : link
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We’ve signed LHP Luis Avilán to a minor league contract with an invite to major league #SpringTraining. #Mets
Gsellman  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 2:48 pm : link
is overrated at this point. He was brilliant in 2016, awful in 2017 and "okay" in 2018. He's likely "okay".
Wasn't  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 2:49 pm : link
aimed at anyone on here. I just meant in general. He's just a guy.
It's 50-50 Lugo ends up in the starting rotation  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 2:50 pm : link
1 injury or terrible ST from Vargas and it's pretty likely. Nobody is knocking him as a pitcher, it's a question of having PROVEN depth so he can either stay in the BP or move into the rotation if necessary.

And re: the 40 man there's plenty of room. Start with Gagnon and Flexen and keep on going through Rhame and Oswalt if you have to. Dom Smith has no role with the big club and should just be traded to not steal at bats from guys they seemingly like better like Mcneil & Davis. If you told me we could get a similar deal for Dom to what we gave up for Davis I'd probably be ok with that. Or ideally maybe he brings back 1 of the types of relievers we are talking about via trade.
Holy shit!  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 2:52 pm : link
Literally just said his name! Was even going to say we might be able to get him on a non guaranteed deal too.
With  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 2:53 pm : link
Santiago here no reason to carry Gagnon. Santiago/Dowdy/Lockett as options make Gagnon "very" expendable. As for the 40

Gagnon, Peterson, Rhame, Sewald, Flexen. They have room to operate if they chose to.
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 2:56 pm : link
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A sourced estimate for what a deGrom extension would look like is five years, $130-145 million. Per sources, there will a will on both sides to get a deal done.
And yes... Gsellman’s not “special”  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 2:57 pm : link
But if anything over 1 WAR is considered very good (not counting closers) for relieves, I think you’ll see most teams have guys like Gsellman giving innings in the middle of a pen somewhere. Positive WAR, FIP in the 3s. Not a guy you want closing out games, obviously, but still some value there.
100% on board w/ Avilan but he did have a big drop in velocity last yr  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 2:57 pm : link
I suspect that's why he didn't get a full MLB deal. Keep inviting guys to ST and see what happens. Like I said, add Blevins to the mix and hope 1 of these guys has enough left in a specialist role.

I do think they need 1 more back end option though beyond the lefty - Allen would be great. Brach is interesting and from the area I believe. Warren isn't a back end guy but he's pitched well on winning teams.
RE: And yes... Gsellman’s not “special”  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:01 pm : link
In comment 14257099 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
But if anything over 1 WAR is considered very good (not counting closers) for relieves, I think you’ll see most teams have guys like Gsellman giving innings in the middle of a pen somewhere. Positive WAR, FIP in the 3s. Not a guy you want closing out games, obviously, but still some value there.


Huh? Gsellman posted .3 fWAR in 2018. Where are you getting "anything over 1 WAR"? He's posted .9 fWAR over his last 2 seasons combined and FIP "in the 3's?" uh? His FIP the last 2 seasons has been 4.89 and 3.95. Are you looking at the wrong pitcher?
Drew  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:04 pm : link
Smith and Daniel Zamora pitched 37 innings last year (combined) and put up a higher combined fWAR than Gsellman who threw 80 innings. Guess how many RP's posted a better FIP than Gsellman last year? 94 and fWAR? 95.


RE: 100% on board w/ Avilan but he did have a big drop in velocity last yr  
Metnut : 1/10/2019 3:08 pm : link
In comment 14257101 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
I suspect that's why he didn't get a full MLB deal. Keep inviting guys to ST and see what happens. Like I said, add Blevins to the mix and hope 1 of these guys has enough left in a specialist role.

I do think they need 1 more back end option though beyond the lefty - Allen would be great. Brach is interesting and from the area I believe. Warren isn't a back end guy but he's pitched well on winning teams.


On board with bringing Blevins back too. Avilan is fine to have in the mix, but we gotta see if his stuff holds up in the spring. Would be nice to see how Blevins looks too.

Allen, Brach and Ottavino would all be nice additions. Please add one of them.
Sadly  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:11 pm : link
there is no sleeper internal option at AA/AAA. I guess Roseboom if you squint real hard but I don't see it at all. I wouldn't want to waste a Kay or Peterson like that.
First Broxton now...  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:13 pm : link

Post subject: Re: 2019PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:49 am
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Why has there been so little talk of Luis Avilan as a LOOGY option? Career .213/.289/.292 vs. lefties #Mets

Brodie you sly dog!
I don't know why they haven't just traded Dom Smith for someone  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 3:16 pm : link
there has to be a team willing to give up a decent reliever for him. Royals? Rays?
Rays  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:20 pm : link
reportedly really like Yandy (another guy I wanted the Mets to look at) so I'd be surprised if they gave up much for Dom. Yandy + Choi = no room at the inn. With McKay there too I don't think they would bother unless he were 100% dumped. Royals future at 1b is Pratto. He's at least 1 season away but O'Hearn was quietly awesome for them. Don't see either team as fits for Dom.
RE: RE: And yes... Gsellman’s not “special”  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 3:21 pm : link
In comment 14257114 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14257099 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


But if anything over 1 WAR is considered very good (not counting closers) for relieves, I think you’ll see most teams have guys like Gsellman giving innings in the middle of a pen somewhere. Positive WAR, FIP in the 3s. Not a guy you want closing out games, obviously, but still some value there.



Huh? Gsellman posted .3 fWAR in 2018. Where are you getting "anything over 1 WAR"? He's posted .9 fWAR over his last 2 seasons combined and FIP "in the 3's?" uh? His FIP the last 2 seasons has been 4.89 and 3.95. Are you looking at the wrong pitcher?


Not sure where you read me saying Gsellman had over a 1 win at all. I said if that’s the “bar” for excellent (mostly backend and setup options) most guys in the middle will fall in the .1-.9 range. You aren’t going to find a single pen in baseball or in all if history with 7 guys over 1. I was agreeing that he’s not special (I actually led with that) but every pen has “Gsellmans” in the middle somewhere. A guy that’s positive WAR, FIP under 4, etc.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:22 pm : link
think the Rangers/Mets should link up in a Frazier/Dom to Texas deal.
RE: Rays  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 3:23 pm : link
In comment 14257161 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
reportedly really like Yandy (another guy I wanted the Mets to look at) so I'd be surprised if they gave up much for Dom. Yandy + Choi = no room at the inn. With McKay there too I don't think they would bother unless he were 100% dumped. Royals future at 1b is Pratto. He's at least 1 season away but O'Hearn was quietly awesome for them. Don't see either team as fits for Dom.


How about Texas? Not sure he'd bring back Minor by himself, but maybe consider Minor isn't cheap.
Sorry  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:23 pm : link
but the sentence was very confusing to me. Gsellman is filler and the numbers say as much. I merely stated he's a bit overrated because 2016 he looked like a 2-3 SP in limited run and now he could retire tomorrow and they would be fine.
Avilán is flat good against lefties  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 3:23 pm : link
And can atucally fair decently as a crossover guy as well. Can get a little wild at times but shocked we got him for so cheap/non roster invitee.
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 3:24 pm : link
In comment 14257167 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
think the Rangers/Mets should link up in a Frazier/Dom to Texas deal.


Well that was a well timed post. Frazier actually helps save some money too. That would make sense all around, though I doubt they move Frazier and do think he's a positive value piece.
RE: Sorry  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 3:25 pm : link
In comment 14257169 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
but the sentence was very confusing to me. Gsellman is filler and the numbers say as much. I merely stated he's a bit overrated because 2016 he looked like a 2-3 SP in limited run and now he could retire tomorrow and they would be fine.


I agree with that. And my wording was confusing. Sorry.
RE: RE: Rays  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:25 pm : link
In comment 14257168 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14257161 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


reportedly really like Yandy (another guy I wanted the Mets to look at) so I'd be surprised if they gave up much for Dom. Yandy + Choi = no room at the inn. With McKay there too I don't think they would bother unless he were 100% dumped. Royals future at 1b is Pratto. He's at least 1 season away but O'Hearn was quietly awesome for them. Don't see either team as fits for Dom.



How about Texas? Not sure he'd bring back Minor by himself, but maybe consider Minor isn't cheap.


Texas has multiple "extra" pieces and needs a 3b. They have no clear answer at 1b either so I think these 2 teams line up nicely (and we know they have had conversations). Find it hard to believe the Mets are willing to pay Mike Minor what he has owed to him at this point. I think more likely some of there lesser depth pieces.
RE: Avilán is flat good against lefties  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 3:25 pm : link
In comment 14257170 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
And can atucally fair decently as a crossover guy as well. Can get a little wild at times but shocked we got him for so cheap/non roster invitee.


Look at his velocity numbers.
RE: I don't know why they haven't just traded Dom Smith for someone  
Metnut : 1/10/2019 3:25 pm : link
In comment 14257154 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
there has to be a team willing to give up a decent reliever for him. Royals? Rays?


I think they are trying to trade him but you gotta find a taker. He had such an awful year in the PCL (playing mostly 1B) last year with another 300+ awful MLB ABs to boot (2017-2018) that I can't imagine getting an MLB contributer for him.

IMO, rather than sell him at his absolute worst, I'd send him to Syracuse and see if he can get his career on track. He's still young enough that it's not completely hopeless. If he ends up raking he can be Alonso insurance or then be traded in-season for a reliever.

Oddly enough, the kid hit the ball hard without enough true power at the lower minor levels but then sort of reversed and now seems to have legit power but completely awful contact ability. Maybe there's an adjustment or two that he can make to have some success.
There  
DanMetroMan : 1/10/2019 3:27 pm : link
was an article last year that basically said Dom Smith's approach was THE WORST in baseball in 2018. That being said, sticking him in Syracuse wouldn't be the end of the world.
Atlanta in on Pollock...  
Metnut : 1/10/2019 3:28 pm : link
would be a nightmare lineup if they can add him.
RE: RE: Avilán is flat good against lefties  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 3:46 pm : link
In comment 14257177 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14257170 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


And can atucally fair decently as a crossover guy as well. Can get a little wild at times but shocked we got him for so cheap/non roster invitee.



Look at his velocity numbers.


Yeah not sure what the issue is there? Was he nursing something? Still under 30 and Loogys generally don’t need to throw that hard. Love the pickup. No risk.
no idea could be anything  
Eric on Li : 1/10/2019 3:54 pm : link
Blevins had no velocity issues, just had a crap year. Relievers are just volatile, that's why I think it's usually worth paying for 1 more premium reliever than you think you need. The 2016's where the 2 key guys pitch great and stay healthy are less common than the 2017/2018's where there's an injury or two.
Allen had a run of being damn good for 5 years straight  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 3:59 pm : link
No idea what happened last year but at only 30, I’d bet on him bouncing back reuniting with Mickey.
Wouldn’t be surprised if  
ZGiants98 : 1/10/2019 5:34 pm : link
Avilan has a handshake deal to make the team but they needed the roster spot until then.
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