David Wright will assume a new role with the club as Special Advisor to #Mets COO Jeff Wilpon and Brodie Van Wagenen. In a related move, the organization and David mutually agreed to his release from the current roster.
vs. the payroll number the mets are currently at thanks to insurance money. Below is the TLDR, but the article itself is the most thorough I've seen to date. The only thing he misses is the possible 2.5m of Wright's contract that was already going to be differed, but I think the overall number is probably right because his insurance estimates are conservative.
Quote:
Conclusion
The agreement with Wright obviously gives the Mets whose current payroll is projected to be about $150 million additional wiggle room in 2019. Based on the figures discussed above, lets call it $5 million in salary savings (the $6 million total minus $1 million due to Thursdays early payment).
With the Wright-related insurance settlement, we must spitball for now (and perhaps forever). Lets propose, based on Wilpons words in conjunction with the precedents set by previous such deals, that theyll get $9 million this year and $3 million next year. Throw in the Cespedes guesstimate of $7 million.
That all would give the Mets a de facto bump of as much as $21 million for 2019.
estimates have the Mets 2019 effective payroll ie players who are going to actually play WELL below last season... so much for Brodie convincing the Wilpons to spend or... the Harper meeting lolz
estimates have the Mets 2019 effective payroll ie players who are going to actually play WELL below last season... so much for Brodie convincing the Wilpons to spend or... the Harper meeting lolz
What I want to see is how we draft in June. If we had a lower payroll because we had a bunch of elite prospects like Atlanta has or Tampa did in the past, I would have less of an issue with the payroll. The problem is we overdraft players whose upside are bench players or back of the rotation starters and then act like we are surprised when we don't have anything. If I do not see any change this year (after dumping Kelenic) that is going to worry me.
estimates have the Mets 2019 effective payroll ie players who are going to actually play WELL below last season... so much for Brodie convincing the Wilpons to spend or... the Harper meeting lolz
What I want to see is how we draft in June. If we had a lower payroll because we had a bunch of elite prospects like Atlanta has or Tampa did in the past, I would have less of an issue with the payroll. The problem is we overdraft players whose upside are bench players or back of the rotation starters and then act like we are surprised when we don't have anything. If I do not see any change this year (after dumping Kelenic) that is going to worry me.
We already know our draft budget for the Summer and I'll guarantee right now we don't go over to pay any sort of penalty. The Wilpons are pocketing more money yet again. I just don't understand why BVW would take this job and give up millions more just to be a lackey to the Wilpons unless he was lied to and now just has the hubris to prove he can still build a winner with such constraints. I can see him out in 3 years once that Cano contract goes belly up.
says the Mets are one of the few teams that value NCAA numbers over projectability and you can see the results in how crappy their non Conforto college bat picks have been.
what's astounding about the wilpons brazenness is revenue is up again
so it shouldn't even be that big of a deal for the payroll to rise slightly - it should be 100% expected since the overall league revenues were a record high last year.
And yet, here we are. In a position where any of us would consider it lucky if they were to simple spend to the level of last year.
Hopefully they are just trying to set expectations low. I was looking at the relief market yesterday and there really are A TON of good options left that will probably only require a 1 year deals around what Parker got. Brach, Shawn Kelley, Ollie Perez, Justin Wilson, Madson, Boxberger, Sipp. Plus all the guys we've mentioned in a slightly higher tier like Adam Warren & Cody Allen. Just give me 1 righty and 1 lefty off that list and a veteran backup catcher (don't care who or how much $). That should not be too much to ask of a team "going for it" and looking to "create depth" and "minimize ifs".
his problem is that Miller, Herrera, Robertson, and Soria didn't get that and while he has a case that he had a better year than they did I'm not so sure that he does that he's a better bet going forward. This is probably the only chance he will ever have to get a big contract and unlike those guys he hasn't already made $60-80m. His career earnings to this point are $13m. He is going to highest bidder.
estimates have the Mets 2019 effective payroll ie players who are going to actually play WELL below last season... so much for Brodie convincing the Wilpons to spend or... the Harper meeting lolz
What I want to see is how we draft in June. If we had a lower payroll because we had a bunch of elite prospects like Atlanta has or Tampa did in the past, I would have less of an issue with the payroll. The problem is we overdraft players whose upside are bench players or back of the rotation starters and then act like we are surprised when we don't have anything. If I do not see any change this year (after dumping Kelenic) that is going to worry me.
It wasn't just drafting for the Braves and Rays as they both acquired several top prospects by trading their good MLB players who's contracts were close to expiring.
are planning on paying big sums to deGrom. Frankly, I'd also try to sign Wheeler long term too. If that's what they are holding back for, I'm ok with it.
Look at the Mets roster and not be excited for 2019. We've dealt with some crushing injuries over the last two years so I get being somewhat jaded (Cespedes still wont be back for half a season) but this team is relatively young and bursting with talent. We still have one of the best rotations in baseball and our top 4 are 30 years old and younger. Our pen just got a dramatic facelift and our hot shot new closer is 24 years old. Our entire lineup is young and filled with talent even if its not full realized yet (Rosario) and there's still more on the way (Alonso).
Fans can be upset at trading away a few prospects I guess but this is a fun ML roster and I still don't think we are done. We are going to add another player or two. I think the worst part of the team is there is still some variable to the lineup not knowing how much guys like Davis, Alonso, Rosario, and even McNeil are going to provide in 2019 but give me that problem over what we've seen in the past 10 times out of 10.
Are jaded? Or are you simply playing devils advocate? At the end of the year you said they needed to go all in on a power bat, if you think thats cano fine but I think a lot of us have reservations about a 36 PED user being that bat. Furthermore while they added an elite closer they havent really done anything else. Based on swarzaks 2017 stats I could imagine a young Zgiants making the argument that familia swarzak were not all that dissimilar bullpen wise going into last season when we arguably had more depth on paper back there.
Look I get there is reason to be positive, but its tough to not look at the scope of what the Mets are doing without looking at the money the Nats have spent/ trying to spend and the money the Phillies are trying to spend. Especially considering how much more money the Mets make then at least the nationals. We have the ability REALLY upgrade lineup or ability to really upgrade bullpen and rotation depth. We seem to instead be trading prospects for mediocre depth so that we can actually have a lower payroll than last year.
my major point though is, if the Mets are unwilling to spend in free agency, given their limited current payroll, and the salary relief they are getting from Wright and Cespedes. It would be criminal not to lock up the core of the team, the pitching. Because that window for success will close quickly if you don't have deGrom/Thor/Wheeler. If new contracts are not made, then I think fans have every right to revolt. Brodie talked about a 5 year window right now, and that would be impossible without the pitching, especially with the next round of pitching prospects a few years away, and probably not nearly as talented as the trio we have now. Nationals are spending a ton for Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin, our group is arguably better and we have a chance to get them at a cheaper price.
Are jaded? Or are you simply playing devils advocate? At the end of the year you said they needed to go all in on a power bat, if you think thats cano fine but I think a lot of us have reservations about a 36 PED user being that bat. Furthermore while they added an elite closer they havent really done anything else. Based on swarzaks 2017 stats I could imagine a young Zgiants making the argument that familia swarzak were not all that dissimilar bullpen wise going into last season when we arguably had more depth on paper back there.
Look I get there is reason to be positive, but its tough to not look at the scope of what the Mets are doing without looking at the money the Nats have spent/ trying to spend and the money the Phillies are trying to spend. Especially considering how much more money the Mets make then at least the nationals. We have the ability REALLY upgrade lineup or ability to really upgrade bullpen and rotation depth. We seem to instead be trading prospects for mediocre depth so that we can actually have a lower payroll than last year.
I mean I flat out said those exact words, so yeah. And Ill fully admit I liked our pen last year but we quickly lost Swarzak and Ramos as soon as the season started and Lugo was forced to move to the rotation when Thor went down. Heck I liked the last two seasons entire rosters (2017 more than 2018) but injuries destroyed us. All that said weve never had a backend like Lugo, Familia, Diaz. I wanted offense big time this offseason but Cano and Ramos arent nobodys. They should dramatically help the lineup. I mean youre talking about a couple all stars playing at a high level as recently as last year. Outside of Harper/Machado who were we bringing in better than them? Somebody like Pollock by himself wasnt upgrading our offense that much.
My larger point is that the overall team is a fun team. All three levels has young talent making this an exciting team to root for. I just dont see how anyone could not be looking forward to this season. I still think we add another pen arm or two and we might be waiting for the Pollock/MGone market to fall.
Everyone complained about the BP. Went out and got one of the games best closers. And our old closer to set him up.
Everyone complained about C. Went after the best in the game,then signed one of the best offensive catchers in the game
Everyone complained we needed O. See above, and went out and acquired Cano, one of the better 2B in the game.
Everyone complained the bench sucks went out and acquired two MLB ready bats for the bench, and pushed McNeil to the bench.
Everyone complained the team never makes trades for High upside guys, the next Dickey. Went out and got Broxton and Davis.
Everyone complained we had zero depth in AAA to be ready for injuries, theyre signing vets and reclamation projects to provide said depth.
All at the cost of Dunn, whomost here viewed as a BP arm and Kelenic.
Is it great? Is it perfect? Did they really sell out the future to win today? Would I have done things differently, or you? I could just as easily post a negative view as I did this positive view - but there is already enough negativity and skepticism to go around.
Everyone complained about the BP. Went out and got one of the games best closers. And our old closer to set him up.
Everyone complained about C. Went after the best in the game,then signed one of the best offensive catchers in the game
Everyone complained we needed O. See above, and went out and acquired Cano, one of the better 2B in the game.
Everyone complained the bench sucks went out and acquired two MLB ready bats for the bench, and pushed McNeil to the bench.
Everyone complained the team never makes trades for High upside guys, the next Dickey. Went out and got Broxton and Davis.
Everyone complained we had zero depth in AAA to be ready for injuries, theyre signing vets and reclamation projects to provide said depth.
All at the cost of Dunn, whomost here viewed as a BP arm and Kelenic.
Is it great? Is it perfect? Did they really sell out the future to win today? Would I have done things differently, or you? I could just as easily post a negative view as I did this positive view - but there is already enough negativity and skepticism to go around.
A few counterpoints to your list:
1. At this moment they have cut spending in the BP by ~20m this year. Familia is Familia, and Diaz is a big upgrade, so while they have improved quality they have not improved the depth. It might even have gotten worse considering last year they went into the season with 4 expected late game options + Lugo/Gman. Right now they have 2. Injuries and underperformance destroyed last year's deeper pen in less than 1 month.
2. To add to your list, "everyone complained that their farm system sucks and is thin" and they thinned it out even more. And with each day it becomes more apparent they did so mainly to avoid spending money.
3. BY FAR, everyone's biggest complain the past decade has been that the Mets don't spend enough money. I give BVW for making progress in almost all the areas you mentioned (C, defense, closer, lineup) - but it's hard to not be frustrated with the Wilpons constantly misleading the fanbase about "going for it". Especially while the teams around us in the division who finished ahead of us last year - Nats and Phillies in particular - are all in on the biggest FA class in a decade. Meanwhile here we can't even offer up $9-10m/year for someone like Herrera or Ottavino or Miller or Robertson who would significantly improve the depth in the BP.
You touched my sore spot - that spending,only= talent.
BP dumped $25mm in Swarz, Ramos and Blevins. Added Diaz. Were spending less, thus its worse!?!?!
Seemed people were starting to talk about he farm improving and getting deeper. Traded two top tier guys, one most fans didnt care for to begin with. They are about to graduate Alonso, with Gimenez behind him. Kay and Peterson behind them. The 500 young relievers they traded for the last couple years. The farms still look good, just not as heavyid argue the farm today is better than it was two years ago,but not as good as it was three months ago.
Again with the money = talent argument, so I wont go there. Go out and get the best talent period. The best fits for the team let the money guys figure out the money so it doesnt handicap you down the road.
Personally, Id sign the core, starting with Thor. More certainty for next 3-5 years they play up to their contract and they are even more valuable trade chips. They play under their contract, its offset by the other good contracts and youre a big market, and thats when you flex your big market muscle.
All that said, yes, Machado and Harper should be Mets!
all due respect but that's not really all that fair in regard to the prospects.
Kelenic, Dunn, Adolph, Santana, Hill were all top 20 prospects in the system. Adolph is ranked #30 in a superior Astros system by MLBpipeline and Santana #22. Manea also was a prospect, closer to the 30-40 range but yeah trading 5 top 20 names and an additional guy is pretty major when the system was closer to average than anything special. Now they did get back Lockett and Haggerty but every team in baseball takes Kelenic, Dunn, Adolph and Santana over the 2 guys the Mets got back. That doesn't even include Valerio or Wahl. They gave up significant young depth/talent.
That Plawecki return was really, really strange other than backfilling AAA... which is "okay" except they are rolling the dice on TDA who has been BAD and injured and coming off a major surgery.
shecky is the BP deeper right now than it was last year?
im not saying money = talent, but it does often = depth. I didn't love Ramos or Swarzak last year so I have no issue agreeing that the quality is dramatically better with Diaz. But depth is having bodies in case of injury. It's why the Yankees are still going after Ottavino even though they have Chapman, Betances, and Britton.
This offseason isn't over and there are a TON of relievers still out there. I think they need to sign at least 2 more of them and I don't think they are dumb enough to not do that considering it will probably only take 1 year deals for many of them. It's just discouraging that they publicly acknowledged not having the budget to have been in on the tier of Miller, Robertson, Herrera, and now Ottavino. Even if both Diaz and Familia stay healthy they are probably going to end up giving up an SWR or Newton for a 3rd guy like the ones mentioned when they could have done it now for nothing.
legitimately have the utmost respect for Shecky. But if you told me when the off-season began that they gave up
Kelenic, Dunn, Santana, Adolph, Wahl, Valerio and this was our current roster I would be very disappointed. Still time to make additions for sure but right now on paper this looks like a low 80's in roster with a bottom 5 farm system.
Cant deny that. My point was, they didnt trade top guys compared to what they got back in return. You know my thoughts on Kelenic, as well as Hill, so I wont go there.
But they traded depth. They traded lower level guys. What was the strength of the farm though? And the weakness? They traded lower level guys for upper level guys. Not arguing the specific names. But big picture, cant argue they traded away strength of farm to improve the weakness of. Same with the ML contracts theyre giving out.
Bruxton and Davis are the you g bench, replacement guys if there is an injury. Longer term replacements, or possibly at least. Those did NOT exist above A ball
advocated going after Broxton so I don't want to shit on him but lets be frank here if he repeats what he's done the past 2 seasons he's not even a guy we want for all of 2019 let alone a "long term" bench piece. It could happen but last 2 seasons .213/.296/.419. Nobody wants THAT for multiple seasons.
No, I dont think they are done in the pen. But yeah, I consider Diaz Familia way better than Familia Swarz. Still have Lugo and Ges, so no difference there. Blevins, Im on record for bring him back cheap. Ramos, yeah I think theyll find a few comparable arms to Ramos by the time its all said and done. Once again, a ton of the young arms, not counting on them, but one or two takes a baby step forward and thinks look quite differently quickly. Difference is they dont count on that like they did last year...
Dan, any comment that doesnt start with Shecky, you know I love you but always worry me, but Ill accept the offshoots of that lol. Good point about the minors. But take out the names. If I told you theyd trade two top five guys. And five ten to twenty guys. And wed solidify the C, BP, bench, and a starting 2b - no, I dont think anyone would be excited about that. BUT, thats kind of the floor of what they got in return, compared to the ceiling of what the prospects could become...
advocated going after Broxton so I don't want to shit on him but lets be frank here if he repeats what he's done the past 2 seasons he's not even a guy we want for all of 2019 let alone a "long term" bench piece. It could happen but last 2 seasons .213/.296/.419. Nobody wants THAT for multiple seasons.
Lol, young is relative, and to relative to me hes a baby lol. Young is in reference to 3-5 years. Bruxton has upside if he can start to hit the ball, which no I do not think the Mets or Davis will magically unlock. But hes a star if it happens. A lotto ticket. At worst, he is a very good bench, short term starter to replace an injured guy. Seriously, the team has been lacking that for a looooong time. Same with Davis.
Statistically. The odds of a prospect ever making it as a borderline starter for 3+ years are very very low. Especially a low A prospect...
a Nat, 1 year 9. Love that move at that commitment.
Lol, does that answer the magically question everyoneasked the other day why would the Mets be interested in him??
Think youll see some more of these types of deals as guys realize one year deals are the way to go. Teams DO NOT want to hand out long term eras anymore. Would LOVE lemahieu, and Lowrie still bouncing around...
to be a bullpen piece when the rotation still has Matz and Vargas in it.
Vargas had a FIP over 5 last year, isn't exactly a pillar of health, and will be 36 next year. Matz looks like he can be a solid #4 starter but counting on a healthy season from him would defy past experience.
Maybe one or both of those guys will hit the "high" end of their projection range and be solid back-enders who throw 175 innings, but what's the backup plan? It's more likely than not (just given the nature of pitchers in general, Thor and Wheeler's background in particular put aside) that at least one of the big 3 will miss time at some point.
What's the plan when something goes wrong? If you're counting on Lugo in the pen, then who is the next man up if first half 2/3 of the season Vargas shows up or Matz has some random forearm issue?
The offseason isn't over yet, so I hope they really fortify the pitching staff with a quality addition or two given how low the payroll currently is. Adding a premium bullpen piece would allow us to truly deploy Lugo as a flex weapon. Adding a 2 WAR+ starter would let Vargas be the 6th starter/longman that he's more suited to being at this point in his career and ensure that we don't have to put trash like Oswalt or whoever on the mount when the inevitable injury happens.
C HUGEi provement. Can expect 3-4 wins here
1B. Love Alonsos power. 250 35 HR 3-4 winbopper for $500k. He is no A Gon, but...
2B. Great leadership for the young Latin kids, professional hitter. 3-4 wins again
SS a ton of growth from Rosario here. 4 wins
3B only position Id worry about, but great depth most teams dont have. After Frazier youve got McNeiland Davis to battle it out. Could be anywhere from 1-4 wins, biggest question mark. A certain FA would go a long way to solving that...
RF Nimmo. Hard to expect him to match last year. But since this is an optimistic projection, why not ask a young kid to grow further in his second full season? 4 wins+
LF Conforto, finallysettles in healthy and experienced. Lock him up BEFORE the big season. 4 wins
CF Legares/Broxton wont hit much, but wont need to. 2 wins from defense till Ces comes back and Nimmo/Conforto take over. Another 3 wins from a motivated Ces when he comes back...
SP. sure JdG and Wheeler cant be expected to repeat. But Thor will be the best pitcher in baseball by year end. LOCK HIM UP. I even expect Matz to have a pretty good year and would lock him up cheap for three years and options. TRADE FOR BAUER!!!! Personally Id putLugo back in the rotation as a savvy starter.
BP. Diaz is shutdown and Familia is pretty freakin top notch as a setup man. I dont think theyre done here either, so incomplete grade
Bench - no comparison to years past. McNeil or Frazier. Davis and Broxton. TdA. Compared to Flores and a black hole of years past. Got some power on the bench. Got some speed. Got some guys who can start if necessary for a coup,e of weeks. Some potential upside. This here is the biggest difference in the 19 team vs previous couple of years.
From our acquisitions and lost nada from a team that was riddled with injuries last year. I got us as a wild card contender now with a lot less question marks than years passed and I dont think we are done.
Excerpt from one of my favorite writers Eno Sarris
on his over/under picks for the year. He likes the over on the Mets. He also mentions the rotation depth issue that I just posted about an hour ago... smart guy!
"Mets Over 83.5
Talking about money with the Mets is always difficult. They spent $151 million last year on payroll, and they just added Hector Santiago on a deal that would push this years payroll to $151 million should he make the roster. They might be done spending.
The good news, however, is that they just negotiated a deal that sends David Wright to the front office and may save them along with the Yoenis Cspedes insurance money as much as $20 million in 2019, according to Ken Davidoff. Will they spend it now or on a mid-season acquisition? Who knows, but at least they arent tapped out before the season starts. (In theory, anyway).
The Mets have a good rotation! But it sounds kind of meh to say they have a top ten rotation. Obviously, the issue is health, especially behind their ace. Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler have all had their share of injuries in the past few years.
But health is a major source of variance when it comes to team projections. Should those three put in 170 innings each, the team projections change. Because on quality alone, the Mets are right there with the best rotations in baseball. Check out how they look when it comes to projected strikeouts minus walks next year, among starters with at least 20 starts.
Team Top 60 K-BB Starters
Dodgers 5
Indians 5
Red Sox 5
Astros 4
Mets 4
Yankeees 4
Thats a good group to be in.
Where they dont have depth in the rotation right now sorries to screwball slinger Santiago they do have depth on the infield. Between J.D. Davis power upside, Jeff McNeils extreme contact abilities, Amed Rosarios up and down plate approach, and Peter Alonsos tree trunk arms, the Mets have four young options that could be better than their projections.
Should those players improve, and the rotation show good health, the Mets could easily leave their projection in the dust. And their projection already says theyre a decent bet to be better than the Vegas win line."
the biggest issue right now is proven depth - emphasis on 'proven'
they've acquired some depth guys, presumably with upside, but they aren't proven (with the exception of Broxton). This is the 1 year deal phase of the offseason, they need:
2 arms in the BP (1 lefty and 1 with late inning experience)
1 more catcher for ST in the event Nido still can't hit and tda still can't stay healthy (both more likely than not)
1 or more SP options in the event Vargas still sucks and Lugo needs to stay in the pen
1 backup SS option in the event Guillorme needs to go back to AAA
Not all of those guys need guaranteed MLB contracts, but it wouldn't be hard to fill every one of those spots with a decent veteran at a reasonable amount of money. Blake Parker got just $2.5m. Jon Jay got $4m. That's potentially 2-3 wins right there. Spending another $15m on 3-4 depth guys could be the difference between 85 wins and 90.
Also I'd bring back Blevins on a ST invite. Yes he got tagged last year, but he's still only 35 years old and his velocity didn't drop. In 2017 he was as dominant against lefties as any reliever in baseball. Held them under .200 and only gave up 1 xbh (a double) in 34 innings.
There is only one more spot open on the 40. So the maxguaranteed deals you can currently offer is one. Without risking a bullpen arm being waived.
On Opening Day there will be a spot from Ces opening on the 60. Soone spring training invite can make the roster without risk of losing a body from the 40.
Not saying there arent guys you would hesitate to lose. Theres 5 JAGS on the roster. But everyone throws a hissy fit when one is lost. Just keep in mind the 40.
In the pen after last year if thats where hes used. He was fantastic there actually. Gsellman isnt special but hes about what most teams have for their 4th or 5th option also.
Lets stop acting like we have Diaz/Familia and tumbleweeds. Well still add a loogy and maybe even another guy and then we also have a slew of talented upside options in Bashlor, D Smith, Hanhold, ect. We also have plenty of long man options...
Id do a cartwheel, and thats not a pretty sight
Cheaper and more of a sure thang thats Ottavino.
Id feel pretty good with our SP followed by a trio of Familia, Diaz and Allen. I wouldnt care who we used in the pen in the games we were losing 6-2 in the 7th...
Machado/Harper as a cherry on top ;)
1 injury or terrible ST from Vargas and it's pretty likely. Nobody is knocking him as a pitcher, it's a question of having PROVEN depth so he can either stay in the BP or move into the rotation if necessary.
And re: the 40 man there's plenty of room. Start with Gagnon and Flexen and keep on going through Rhame and Oswalt if you have to. Dom Smith has no role with the big club and should just be traded to not steal at bats from guys they seemingly like better like Mcneil & Davis. If you told me we could get a similar deal for Dom to what we gave up for Davis I'd probably be ok with that. Or ideally maybe he brings back 1 of the types of relievers we are talking about via trade.
The agreement with Wright obviously gives the Mets whose current payroll is projected to be about $150 million additional wiggle room in 2019. Based on the figures discussed above, lets call it $5 million in salary savings (the $6 million total minus $1 million due to Thursdays early payment).
With the Wright-related insurance settlement, we must spitball for now (and perhaps forever). Lets propose, based on Wilpons words in conjunction with the precedents set by previous such deals, that theyll get $9 million this year and $3 million next year. Throw in the Cespedes guesstimate of $7 million.
That all would give the Mets a de facto bump of as much as $21 million for 2019.
How David Wrights restructured deal opens up millions for Mets - ( New Window )
What I want to see is how we draft in June. If we had a lower payroll because we had a bunch of elite prospects like Atlanta has or Tampa did in the past, I would have less of an issue with the payroll. The problem is we overdraft players whose upside are bench players or back of the rotation starters and then act like we are surprised when we don't have anything. If I do not see any change this year (after dumping Kelenic) that is going to worry me.
Quote:
estimates have the Mets 2019 effective payroll ie players who are going to actually play WELL below last season... so much for Brodie convincing the Wilpons to spend or... the Harper meeting lolz
What I want to see is how we draft in June. If we had a lower payroll because we had a bunch of elite prospects like Atlanta has or Tampa did in the past, I would have less of an issue with the payroll. The problem is we overdraft players whose upside are bench players or back of the rotation starters and then act like we are surprised when we don't have anything. If I do not see any change this year (after dumping Kelenic) that is going to worry me.
We already know our draft budget for the Summer and I'll guarantee right now we don't go over to pay any sort of penalty. The Wilpons are pocketing more money yet again. I just don't understand why BVW would take this job and give up millions more just to be a lackey to the Wilpons unless he was lied to and now just has the hubris to prove he can still build a winner with such constraints. I can see him out in 3 years once that Cano contract goes belly up.
And yet, here we are. In a position where any of us would consider it lucky if they were to simple spend to the level of last year.
Hopefully they are just trying to set expectations low. I was looking at the relief market yesterday and there really are A TON of good options left that will probably only require a 1 year deals around what Parker got. Brach, Shawn Kelley, Ollie Perez, Justin Wilson, Madson, Boxberger, Sipp. Plus all the guys we've mentioned in a slightly higher tier like Adam Warren & Cody Allen. Just give me 1 righty and 1 lefty off that list and a veteran backup catcher (don't care who or how much $). That should not be too much to ask of a team "going for it" and looking to "create depth" and "minimize ifs".
I'm thinking he doesn't want to just be another arm in a pen.
If he goes to the Yanks, my point will obviously be wrong
Quote:
estimates have the Mets 2019 effective payroll ie players who are going to actually play WELL below last season... so much for Brodie convincing the Wilpons to spend or... the Harper meeting lolz
What I want to see is how we draft in June. If we had a lower payroll because we had a bunch of elite prospects like Atlanta has or Tampa did in the past, I would have less of an issue with the payroll. The problem is we overdraft players whose upside are bench players or back of the rotation starters and then act like we are surprised when we don't have anything. If I do not see any change this year (after dumping Kelenic) that is going to worry me.
It wasn't just drafting for the Braves and Rays as they both acquired several top prospects by trading their good MLB players who's contracts were close to expiring.
Fans can be upset at trading away a few prospects I guess but this is a fun ML roster and I still don't think we are done. We are going to add another player or two. I think the worst part of the team is there is still some variable to the lineup not knowing how much guys like Davis, Alonso, Rosario, and even McNeil are going to provide in 2019 but give me that problem over what we've seen in the past 10 times out of 10.
Look I get there is reason to be positive, but its tough to not look at the scope of what the Mets are doing without looking at the money the Nats have spent/ trying to spend and the money the Phillies are trying to spend. Especially considering how much more money the Mets make then at least the nationals. We have the ability REALLY upgrade lineup or ability to really upgrade bullpen and rotation depth. We seem to instead be trading prospects for mediocre depth so that we can actually have a lower payroll than last year.
Personally? Id lockup Thor ASAP.
Look I get there is reason to be positive, but its tough to not look at the scope of what the Mets are doing without looking at the money the Nats have spent/ trying to spend and the money the Phillies are trying to spend. Especially considering how much more money the Mets make then at least the nationals. We have the ability REALLY upgrade lineup or ability to really upgrade bullpen and rotation depth. We seem to instead be trading prospects for mediocre depth so that we can actually have a lower payroll than last year.
I mean I flat out said those exact words, so yeah. And Ill fully admit I liked our pen last year but we quickly lost Swarzak and Ramos as soon as the season started and Lugo was forced to move to the rotation when Thor went down. Heck I liked the last two seasons entire rosters (2017 more than 2018) but injuries destroyed us. All that said weve never had a backend like Lugo, Familia, Diaz. I wanted offense big time this offseason but Cano and Ramos arent nobodys. They should dramatically help the lineup. I mean youre talking about a couple all stars playing at a high level as recently as last year. Outside of Harper/Machado who were we bringing in better than them? Somebody like Pollock by himself wasnt upgrading our offense that much.
My larger point is that the overall team is a fun team. All three levels has young talent making this an exciting team to root for. I just dont see how anyone could not be looking forward to this season. I still think we add another pen arm or two and we might be waiting for the Pollock/MGone market to fall.
Everyone complained about C. Went after the best in the game,then signed one of the best offensive catchers in the game
Everyone complained we needed O. See above, and went out and acquired Cano, one of the better 2B in the game.
Everyone complained the bench sucks went out and acquired two MLB ready bats for the bench, and pushed McNeil to the bench.
Everyone complained the team never makes trades for High upside guys, the next Dickey. Went out and got Broxton and Davis.
Everyone complained we had zero depth in AAA to be ready for injuries, theyre signing vets and reclamation projects to provide said depth.
All at the cost of Dunn, whomost here viewed as a BP arm and Kelenic.
Is it great? Is it perfect? Did they really sell out the future to win today? Would I have done things differently, or you? I could just as easily post a negative view as I did this positive view - but there is already enough negativity and skepticism to go around.
Everyone complained about C. Went after the best in the game,then signed one of the best offensive catchers in the game
Everyone complained we needed O. See above, and went out and acquired Cano, one of the better 2B in the game.
Everyone complained the bench sucks went out and acquired two MLB ready bats for the bench, and pushed McNeil to the bench.
Everyone complained the team never makes trades for High upside guys, the next Dickey. Went out and got Broxton and Davis.
Everyone complained we had zero depth in AAA to be ready for injuries, theyre signing vets and reclamation projects to provide said depth.
All at the cost of Dunn, whomost here viewed as a BP arm and Kelenic.
Is it great? Is it perfect? Did they really sell out the future to win today? Would I have done things differently, or you? I could just as easily post a negative view as I did this positive view - but there is already enough negativity and skepticism to go around.
A few counterpoints to your list:
1. At this moment they have cut spending in the BP by ~20m this year. Familia is Familia, and Diaz is a big upgrade, so while they have improved quality they have not improved the depth. It might even have gotten worse considering last year they went into the season with 4 expected late game options + Lugo/Gman. Right now they have 2. Injuries and underperformance destroyed last year's deeper pen in less than 1 month.
2. To add to your list, "everyone complained that their farm system sucks and is thin" and they thinned it out even more. And with each day it becomes more apparent they did so mainly to avoid spending money.
3. BY FAR, everyone's biggest complain the past decade has been that the Mets don't spend enough money. I give BVW for making progress in almost all the areas you mentioned (C, defense, closer, lineup) - but it's hard to not be frustrated with the Wilpons constantly misleading the fanbase about "going for it". Especially while the teams around us in the division who finished ahead of us last year - Nats and Phillies in particular - are all in on the biggest FA class in a decade. Meanwhile here we can't even offer up $9-10m/year for someone like Herrera or Ottavino or Miller or Robertson who would significantly improve the depth in the BP.
BP dumped $25mm in Swarz, Ramos and Blevins. Added Diaz. Were spending less, thus its worse!?!?!
Seemed people were starting to talk about he farm improving and getting deeper. Traded two top tier guys, one most fans didnt care for to begin with. They are about to graduate Alonso, with Gimenez behind him. Kay and Peterson behind them. The 500 young relievers they traded for the last couple years. The farms still look good, just not as heavyid argue the farm today is better than it was two years ago,but not as good as it was three months ago.
Again with the money = talent argument, so I wont go there. Go out and get the best talent period. The best fits for the team let the money guys figure out the money so it doesnt handicap you down the road.
Personally, Id sign the core, starting with Thor. More certainty for next 3-5 years they play up to their contract and they are even more valuable trade chips. They play under their contract, its offset by the other good contracts and youre a big market, and thats when you flex your big market muscle.
All that said, yes, Machado and Harper should be Mets!
Kelenic, Dunn, Adolph, Santana, Hill were all top 20 prospects in the system. Adolph is ranked #30 in a superior Astros system by MLBpipeline and Santana #22. Manea also was a prospect, closer to the 30-40 range but yeah trading 5 top 20 names and an additional guy is pretty major when the system was closer to average than anything special. Now they did get back Lockett and Haggerty but every team in baseball takes Kelenic, Dunn, Adolph and Santana over the 2 guys the Mets got back. That doesn't even include Valerio or Wahl. They gave up significant young depth/talent.
That Plawecki return was really, really strange other than backfilling AAA... which is "okay" except they are rolling the dice on TDA who has been BAD and injured and coming off a major surgery.
This offseason isn't over and there are a TON of relievers still out there. I think they need to sign at least 2 more of them and I don't think they are dumb enough to not do that considering it will probably only take 1 year deals for many of them. It's just discouraging that they publicly acknowledged not having the budget to have been in on the tier of Miller, Robertson, Herrera, and now Ottavino. Even if both Diaz and Familia stay healthy they are probably going to end up giving up an SWR or Newton for a 3rd guy like the ones mentioned when they could have done it now for nothing.
Kelenic, Dunn, Santana, Adolph, Wahl, Valerio and this was our current roster I would be very disappointed. Still time to make additions for sure but right now on paper this looks like a low 80's in roster with a bottom 5 farm system.
But they traded depth. They traded lower level guys. What was the strength of the farm though? And the weakness? They traded lower level guys for upper level guys. Not arguing the specific names. But big picture, cant argue they traded away strength of farm to improve the weakness of. Same with the ML contracts theyre giving out.
Bruxton and Davis are the you g bench, replacement guys if there is an injury. Longer term replacements, or possibly at least. Those did NOT exist above A ball
Warning. Im bored today lol
Dan, any comment that doesnt start with Shecky, you know I love you but always worry me, but Ill accept the offshoots of that lol. Good point about the minors. But take out the names. If I told you theyd trade two top five guys. And five ten to twenty guys. And wed solidify the C, BP, bench, and a starting 2b - no, I dont think anyone would be excited about that. BUT, thats kind of the floor of what they got in return, compared to the ceiling of what the prospects could become...
Lol, young is relative, and to relative to me hes a baby lol. Young is in reference to 3-5 years. Bruxton has upside if he can start to hit the ball, which no I do not think the Mets or Davis will magically unlock. But hes a star if it happens. A lotto ticket. At worst, he is a very good bench, short term starter to replace an injured guy. Seriously, the team has been lacking that for a looooong time. Same with Davis.
Statistically. The odds of a prospect ever making it as a borderline starter for 3+ years are very very low. Especially a low A prospect...
Lol, does that answer the magically question everyoneasked the other day why would the Mets be interested in him??
Think youll see some more of these types of deals as guys realize one year deals are the way to go. Teams DO NOT want to hand out long term eras anymore. Would LOVE lemahieu, and Lowrie still bouncing around...
Vargas had a FIP over 5 last year, isn't exactly a pillar of health, and will be 36 next year. Matz looks like he can be a solid #4 starter but counting on a healthy season from him would defy past experience.
Maybe one or both of those guys will hit the "high" end of their projection range and be solid back-enders who throw 175 innings, but what's the backup plan? It's more likely than not (just given the nature of pitchers in general, Thor and Wheeler's background in particular put aside) that at least one of the big 3 will miss time at some point.
What's the plan when something goes wrong? If you're counting on Lugo in the pen, then who is the next man up if first half 2/3 of the season Vargas shows up or Matz has some random forearm issue?
The offseason isn't over yet, so I hope they really fortify the pitching staff with a quality addition or two given how low the payroll currently is. Adding a premium bullpen piece would allow us to truly deploy Lugo as a flex weapon. Adding a 2 WAR+ starter would let Vargas be the 6th starter/longman that he's more suited to being at this point in his career and ensure that we don't have to put trash like Oswalt or whoever on the mount when the inevitable injury happens.
Great deal for them.
I liked Ramos for us because I thought we'd still be making major additions given how cheap Ramos was. I'm still waiting.
Lol, the kick in the ass to the Dodgers are that the Brewers are a poor team lol
1B. Love Alonsos power. 250 35 HR 3-4 winbopper for $500k. He is no A Gon, but...
2B. Great leadership for the young Latin kids, professional hitter. 3-4 wins again
SS a ton of growth from Rosario here. 4 wins
3B only position Id worry about, but great depth most teams dont have. After Frazier youve got McNeiland Davis to battle it out. Could be anywhere from 1-4 wins, biggest question mark. A certain FA would go a long way to solving that...
RF Nimmo. Hard to expect him to match last year. But since this is an optimistic projection, why not ask a young kid to grow further in his second full season? 4 wins+
LF Conforto, finallysettles in healthy and experienced. Lock him up BEFORE the big season. 4 wins
CF Legares/Broxton wont hit much, but wont need to. 2 wins from defense till Ces comes back and Nimmo/Conforto take over. Another 3 wins from a motivated Ces when he comes back...
SP. sure JdG and Wheeler cant be expected to repeat. But Thor will be the best pitcher in baseball by year end. LOCK HIM UP. I even expect Matz to have a pretty good year and would lock him up cheap for three years and options. TRADE FOR BAUER!!!! Personally Id putLugo back in the rotation as a savvy starter.
BP. Diaz is shutdown and Familia is pretty freakin top notch as a setup man. I dont think theyre done here either, so incomplete grade
Bench - no comparison to years past. McNeil or Frazier. Davis and Broxton. TdA. Compared to Flores and a black hole of years past. Got some power on the bench. Got some speed. Got some guys who can start if necessary for a coup,e of weeks. Some potential upside. This here is the biggest difference in the 19 team vs previous couple of years.
"Mets Over 83.5
Talking about money with the Mets is always difficult. They spent $151 million last year on payroll, and they just added Hector Santiago on a deal that would push this years payroll to $151 million should he make the roster. They might be done spending.
The good news, however, is that they just negotiated a deal that sends David Wright to the front office and may save them along with the Yoenis Cspedes insurance money as much as $20 million in 2019, according to Ken Davidoff. Will they spend it now or on a mid-season acquisition? Who knows, but at least they arent tapped out before the season starts. (In theory, anyway).
The Mets have a good rotation! But it sounds kind of meh to say they have a top ten rotation. Obviously, the issue is health, especially behind their ace. Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler have all had their share of injuries in the past few years.
But health is a major source of variance when it comes to team projections. Should those three put in 170 innings each, the team projections change. Because on quality alone, the Mets are right there with the best rotations in baseball. Check out how they look when it comes to projected strikeouts minus walks next year, among starters with at least 20 starts.
Team Top 60 K-BB Starters
Dodgers 5
Indians 5
Red Sox 5
Astros 4
Mets 4
Yankeees 4
Thats a good group to be in.
Where they dont have depth in the rotation right now sorries to screwball slinger Santiago they do have depth on the infield. Between J.D. Davis power upside, Jeff McNeils extreme contact abilities, Amed Rosarios up and down plate approach, and Peter Alonsos tree trunk arms, the Mets have four young options that could be better than their projections.
Should those players improve, and the rotation show good health, the Mets could easily leave their projection in the dust. And their projection already says theyre a decent bet to be better than the Vegas win line."
2 arms in the BP (1 lefty and 1 with late inning experience)
1 more catcher for ST in the event Nido still can't hit and tda still can't stay healthy (both more likely than not)
1 or more SP options in the event Vargas still sucks and Lugo needs to stay in the pen
1 backup SS option in the event Guillorme needs to go back to AAA
Not all of those guys need guaranteed MLB contracts, but it wouldn't be hard to fill every one of those spots with a decent veteran at a reasonable amount of money. Blake Parker got just $2.5m. Jon Jay got $4m. That's potentially 2-3 wins right there. Spending another $15m on 3-4 depth guys could be the difference between 85 wins and 90.
Also I'd bring back Blevins on a ST invite. Yes he got tagged last year, but he's still only 35 years old and his velocity didn't drop. In 2017 he was as dominant against lefties as any reliever in baseball. Held them under .200 and only gave up 1 xbh (a double) in 34 innings.
On Opening Day there will be a spot from Ces opening on the 60. Soone spring training invite can make the roster without risk of losing a body from the 40.
Not saying there arent guys you would hesitate to lose. Theres 5 JAGS on the roster. But everyone throws a hissy fit when one is lost. Just keep in mind the 40.
Lets stop acting like we have Diaz/Familia and tumbleweeds. Well still add a loogy and maybe even another guy and then we also have a slew of talented upside options in Bashlor, D Smith, Hanhold, ect. We also have plenty of long man options...
Pens in great shape with another addition or two.
Cheaper and more of a sure thang thats Ottavino.
Id feel pretty good with our SP followed by a trio of Familia, Diaz and Allen. I wouldnt care who we used in the pen in the games we were losing 6-2 in the 7th...
Machado/Harper as a cherry on top ;)
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Weve signed LHP Luis Aviln to a minor league contract with an invite to major league #SpringTraining. #Mets
And re: the 40 man there's plenty of room. Start with Gagnon and Flexen and keep on going through Rhame and Oswalt if you have to. Dom Smith has no role with the big club and should just be traded to not steal at bats from guys they seemingly like better like Mcneil & Davis. If you told me we could get a similar deal for Dom to what we gave up for Davis I'd probably be ok with that. Or ideally maybe he brings back 1 of the types of relievers we are talking about via trade.