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Kyler Murray

GiantGrit : 1/9/2019 11:22 am
Supposedly leaning towards entering the draft and putting his baseball career on hold, per Bleacher Report.

Curious to see how he does if he declares.
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I'll never understand  
MattyKid : 1/9/2019 11:26 am : link
Why someone in that position would walk away from a guaranteed contract, assuming he'd get one as a #1 pick (outside of his signing bonus).
That would be a special kind of stupid  
BlueHurricane : 1/9/2019 11:27 am : link
If he is truly a MLB level talent.
RE: That would be a special kind of stupid  
GiantGrit : 1/9/2019 11:28 am : link
In comment 14255318 BlueHurricane said:
Quote:
If he is truly a MLB level talent.


He got picked #9 overall in the MLB draft. Maybe he likes football more.
Personally I don't think he'll make it in the NFL as a QB  
PatersonPlank : 1/9/2019 11:29 am : link
Maybe at some other position
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/9/2019 11:43 am : link
don't see it as crazy at all. Murray got 4.66 million to sign with the A's, the last pick in the 2018 NFL draft (and the guy people will surely be comparing Murray to) was Lamar Jackson who got 8 million guaranteed. The Giants 2nd round pick Will Hernandez got 5.6 million guaranteed. If he loves football and is being top he's a top 2 round pick it's far from nutty.
See Dan  
figgy2989 : 1/9/2019 11:50 am : link
That is the key, which round will he be drafted in. It would behoove him to go through the combines and pro-day and find out where he might go in the draft.

You would have to think teams might be a little hesitant to use premium draft capital if there is not a 100% commitment from him to play football over baseball.

Also, his size may will definitely be a factor.
RE: I  
widmerseyebrow : 1/9/2019 11:55 am : link
In comment 14255337 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
don't see it as crazy at all. Murray got 4.66 million to sign with the A's, the last pick in the 2018 NFL draft (and the guy people will surely be comparing Murray to) was Lamar Jackson who got 8 million guaranteed. The Giants 2nd round pick Will Hernandez got 5.6 million guaranteed. If he loves football and is being top he's a top 2 round pick it's far from nutty.


It is nutty considering his long term outlook is better in baseball, both from a skill set and career longevity point of view. The potential future earnings are far from equal.
I'd put in a bid for him in the  
SHO'NUFF : 1/9/2019 11:55 am : link
later rounds
He will go Round 1  
AdamBrag : 1/9/2019 12:00 pm : link
Tebow went in the first round, I don't see why Murray won't.
RE: RE: I  
cokeduplt : 1/9/2019 12:01 pm : link
In comment 14255360 widmerseyebrow said:
Quote:
In comment 14255337 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


don't see it as crazy at all. Murray got 4.66 million to sign with the A's, the last pick in the 2018 NFL draft (and the guy people will surely be comparing Murray to) was Lamar Jackson who got 8 million guaranteed. The Giants 2nd round pick Will Hernandez got 5.6 million guaranteed. If he loves football and is being top he's a top 2 round pick it's far from nutty.



It is nutty considering his long term outlook is better in baseball, both from a skill set and career longevity point of view. The potential future earnings are far from equal.



A lot of first round mlb draft picks don’t even make it to the majors though
I would use a 4th onhim.  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 12:07 pm : link
I'd consider trading up into the 3rd and grabbing him if he is 100% committed to football. He can always go back to baseball in a few years if it doesn't work out but he won't be able to make it in the NFL if he is out for several years playing baseball.

My favorite part about this move is that it screws over Boras.
Yeah  
DanMetroMan : 1/9/2019 12:12 pm : link
people act like future earnings in baseball are a given. The 2015 MLB draft to this point has 4 players to have played in at least 100 games, and 7 who have played 30 or more games. 2014 5 total players to have played 100 or more MLB games 2013 has 10 players who have played 100 or more games, 6 who have played a "full-season" of games. This isn't the NBA, 1st round means very little.
RE: I would use a 4th onhim.  
SHO'NUFF : 1/9/2019 12:14 pm : link
In comment 14255388 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
I'd consider trading up into the 3rd and grabbing him if he is 100% committed to football. He can always go back to baseball in a few years if it doesn't work out but he won't be able to make it in the NFL if he is out for several years playing baseball.

My favorite part about this move is that it screws over Boras.


Not like we value 3rd rounders anyway...oh wait, Reese is gone. I'd love to have Brees II with a 3rd rounder.
Giants  
DanMetroMan : 1/9/2019 12:15 pm : link
3rd rounder Lorenzo Carter is still banking 1 million guaranteed. I'm FAR from a college football expert I'm just saying it's not as if he's walking away from 100 million in guaranteed future earnings.
RE: He will go Round 1  
ZogZerg : 1/9/2019 12:15 pm : link
In comment 14255372 AdamBrag said:
Quote:
Tebow went in the first round, I don't see why Murray won't.


How did Tebow work out?
Before  
DanMetroMan : 1/9/2019 12:19 pm : link
people jump all over my typo above, I meant last pick in the first round in regard to Jackson
I don't think it is crazy at all...  
Jarvis : 1/9/2019 12:21 pm : link
1) As mentioned, the early money is definitely better in the NFL if he is a 1st or 2nd round pick.

2) He will get to his 2nd contract way earlier in the NFL. Any financial person will tell you, money up front is better than down the road because you can use that money to make more if you have good people around you. (which is why almost everyone takes lotto winnings up front even though it is significantly less than if you take it over the 30 years).

3) He is famous because of football...That's why we know about him as the 9th pick in the baseball draft. There are many top 10 baseball picks that never make it to the big 2nd contract.

4) He will likely have to grind through the minor leagues in baseball for several years before even getting to the show.

5) QB longevity is on par with baseball. Many QBs are playing into their late 30's. Not to mention all the new rules recently implemented to protect QBs even further.

I am not saying it is a no-brainer decision, but it is far from stupid.
Future baseball earnings aren't a given  
widmerseyebrow : 1/9/2019 12:22 pm : link
and neither are future football earnings as a (generously listed) 5'10" quarterback.

I'd also say it's a big assumption that he will be a late first/high second round pick at this stage in the draft process.
RE: RE: He will go Round 1  
Mad Mike : 1/9/2019 12:26 pm : link
In comment 14255414 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
How did Tebow work out?

I'm not really sure what your point is, since people are talking about money, not career success. And Tebow earned about $10 million in the NFL, so, financially, that worked out quite well.

This isn't complicated. Murray may have a brighter future as a baseball player than a football player. But he will get significantly more guaranteed upfront money from the NFL than from MLB. And even as a highly regarded prospect, there's a pretty good chance he'll never succeed enough to earn big salaries in baseball. Without success, he'll make a lot more as a high pick in football than he will from baseball. That doesn't necessarily mean the NFL is the better choice. But it certainly means that it's a reasonable one which could be the more financially beneficial route.
.  
arcarsenal : 1/9/2019 12:28 pm : link
Mayfield's size didn't concern me - nor does Tagivailoa's. But Murray is too small, IMO. I can't see him surviving as an NFL QB.

He's a heck of an athlete and he has a really interesting skill set - I think there are ways you can use him. But as a full time QB, I just think he's too small and the durability won't be there.

If anyone is concerned about Lamar Jackson holding up long-term... Murray would be far more worrisome.
RE: .  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 12:30 pm : link
In comment 14255450 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Mayfield's size didn't concern me - nor does Tagivailoa's. But Murray is too small, IMO. I can't see him surviving as an NFL QB.

He's a heck of an athlete and he has a really interesting skill set - I think there are ways you can use him. But as a full time QB, I just think he's too small and the durability won't be there.

If anyone is concerned about Lamar Jackson holding up long-term... Murray would be far more worrisome.

I think the height concern, and questions about him going back to baseball, would prevent me from taking him in the 1st or 2nd round. Now if he is there in the 3rd or 4th then I would take a chance on him. Yes I know the Giants don't have a 3rd but they could package a couple of picks to get one. I would prefer Tyree Jackson but I don't think he will fall to the 3rd round.
Good point Arc  
figgy2989 : 1/9/2019 12:31 pm : link
Jackson is 6'3 and has a chance to fill out.

Murray at 5'10 (on a good day), not so much. I remember at the combine, there was so much hype around Mayfield and what his actual height was going to be. When he measured 6'0, he immediately went into the top 10 discussion.
All  
DanMetroMan : 1/9/2019 12:34 pm : link
due respect but you guys are ignoring a key aspect here... maybe the kid just loves the game of football? I mean happiness is underrated. Maybe his dream growing up was to win a SB, to QB an NFL team. Hard argue with someone chasing their dream. It's not as if trying this means 0 money or even a backup plan (baseball). Drew Henson thinks he should give the NFL a go. There is some buzz he may stay in school and play both. Would likely minimize his risk. Either have a monster year playing QB and legitimize being a high pick or move on to baseball.
RE: .  
Leg of Theismann : 1/9/2019 12:39 pm : link
In comment 14255450 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Mayfield's size didn't concern me - nor does Tagivailoa's. But Murray is too small, IMO. I can't see him surviving as an NFL QB.

He's a heck of an athlete and he has a really interesting skill set - I think there are ways you can use him. But as a full time QB, I just think he's too small and the durability won't be there.

If anyone is concerned about Lamar Jackson holding up long-term... Murray would be far more worrisome.


He's essentially the same exact height as Russell Wilson. If Wilson is taller it's by millimeters.
RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 1/9/2019 12:42 pm : link
In comment 14255471 Leg of Theismann said:
Quote:
In comment 14255450 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


Mayfield's size didn't concern me - nor does Tagivailoa's. But Murray is too small, IMO. I can't see him surviving as an NFL QB.

He's a heck of an athlete and he has a really interesting skill set - I think there are ways you can use him. But as a full time QB, I just think he's too small and the durability won't be there.

If anyone is concerned about Lamar Jackson holding up long-term... Murray would be far more worrisome.



He's essentially the same exact height as Russell Wilson. If Wilson is taller it's by millimeters.


Wilson is 20lbs heavier. He's stronger and better built.

Murray is very small.
The height isn't the major concern anymore with what you can do with  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/9/2019 12:47 pm : link
qbs now. But frame size certainly is and Murray is very slight. Wilson is built and actually cut some weight this last year.
Wilson has at least  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/9/2019 12:49 pm : link
40 lbs on Murray.
The frame is the big issue  
Zeke's Alibi : 1/9/2019 12:50 pm : link
Its why there are legit concerns over Lamar and Rosen.
Murray needs time to physically develop  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 12:52 pm : link
A year as a backup would do wonders as this would be the first time that Murray has focused solely on football.
I saw a pic of him and Baker M  
edavisiii : 1/9/2019 12:54 pm : link
...Mayfield looked big compared to him and Baker was considered smallish
It is exciting  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 1:00 pm : link
to think about the offense with Murray and Barkley. The concerns about his height are valid but nobody can question his athleticism or his arm strength.
Murray's size doesn't bother me either.  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 1/9/2019 1:03 pm : link
My issues with him are arm strength (especially in NY) and his lack of experience. We talk about the successful short QBs like Brees, Wilson, and perhaps one day Mayfield. But those guys each started 3+ years in college. His size can be mitigated with his athletic ability and with Saquon Barkley standing behind him.

If I was confident in his arm strength and accuracy, I'd definitely use a first round pick on him. He's a far superior passer to Lamar Jackson.
People saying he can't make it as an NFL QB...  
Leg of Theismann : 1/9/2019 1:04 pm : link
Dude is going to prove a lot of people wrong if he chooses the football route.

1) Mayfield came from the same system and his production has translated to the NFL. Murray had essentially the same exact 2018 season statistically as Mayfield's 2017 in terms of passing, except Murray also tacked on 1000 yards and 12 TDs rushing as well. Murray's measurables will be better than Mayfield's (aside from height which will literally only be 1 (no more than 2) inches shorter.

2) Don't get the comparisons to Lamar Jackson. Murray completed 69% of his passes last year compared to Jackson's 57% career completion percentage. Also: 11.6 yards per attempt, compared to Jackson's 8.5. (Also much higher than Haskins at 9.1) ... Murray has a baseball arm and he can certainly chuck it downfield.

3) The guy is just a flat out athlete and a gamer. Anyone who can go in the 1st round of a professional draft in 2 separate sports is just naturally gifted and is going to be a difference-maker on the field.

I would absolutely love to see the Giants take this guy if he enters the NFL draft. He and Saquon together alone would be awesome, and add Odell into the mix and you're talking about a big play waiting to happen at any second. I can't believe more people on this board aren't getting hyped about this possibility of him coming out. Ignoring height, just look at the stats, look at the tape, look at the measurables and make a decision from there. Don't over-think this thing.
RE: That would be a special kind of stupid  
santacruzom : 1/9/2019 1:08 pm : link
In comment 14255318 BlueHurricane said:
Quote:
If he is truly a MLB level talent.


People keep saying that and I get why from a money and health perspective, but the negative is that you'd be playing... baseball.
RE: RE: RE: I  
santacruzom : 1/9/2019 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14255374 cokeduplt said:
Quote:
In comment 14255360 widmerseyebrow said:


Quote:


In comment 14255337 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


don't see it as crazy at all. Murray got 4.66 million to sign with the A's, the last pick in the 2018 NFL draft (and the guy people will surely be comparing Murray to) was Lamar Jackson who got 8 million guaranteed. The Giants 2nd round pick Will Hernandez got 5.6 million guaranteed. If he loves football and is being top he's a top 2 round pick it's far from nutty.



It is nutty considering his long term outlook is better in baseball, both from a skill set and career longevity point of view. The potential future earnings are far from equal.




A lot of first round mlb draft picks don’t even make it to the majors though


Also, I imagine he'd make more from endorsements as a football player. This is speculative, but based on the fact that I can't name more than 5 baseball players (and just hitting that total would require a bit of luck).
RE: I saw a pic of him and Baker M  
Leg of Theismann : 1/9/2019 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14255500 edavisiii said:
Quote:
...Mayfield looked big compared to him and Baker was considered smallish


Looking at this pic... I don't see enough of a size difference to warrant a ton of worry.


Link - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 1/9/2019 1:11 pm : link
Psst...

No one has compared anything about Murray's actual game to Lamar Jackson's.

Jackson was brought up twice. Once by Dan to illustrate a financial point and once by me simply to point to the fact that if his durability is a concern to anyone, it will be even more of one with Murray.

Yes, height wise he's about the same as Russell Wilson - but the extra 20-25lbs. Wilson has on him is a big deal. That's all muscle and helps him absorb contact.

Murray won't last one year taking hits from NFL linebackers at his size. He doesn't even weigh 200 lbs. He's tiny. Yes, he's a great athlete and he can sling it... but I see a great college QB, not a great pro prospect.

Murray isn't a QB you can build a team around.
RE: .  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 1:16 pm : link
In comment 14255550 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Psst...

No one has compared anything about Murray's actual game to Lamar Jackson's.

Jackson was brought up twice. Once by Dan to illustrate a financial point and once by me simply to point to the fact that if his durability is a concern to anyone, it will be even more of one with Murray.

Yes, height wise he's about the same as Russell Wilson - but the extra 20-25lbs. Wilson has on him is a big deal. That's all muscle and helps him absorb contact.

Murray won't last one year taking hits from NFL linebackers at his size. He doesn't even weigh 200 lbs. He's tiny. Yes, he's a great athlete and he can sling it... but I see a great college QB, not a great pro prospect.

Murray isn't a QB you can build a team around.

I disagree. I agree with you that he has to add to his frame because he is currently too slight but i think he has the upside to be the type of QB you build your team around. He is truly a special athlete who scouts say already has clean throwing mechanics. He has also been spending his time focusing on two sports. I am intrigued by the potential of adding him to Barkley, Beckham, Engram, and Shepard and I would have no problem drafting him. Not as 6 obviously but in round 2-3.
If Murray was 3 inches taller  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 1:20 pm : link
There would be daily threads about trading up to the #1 spot to take Murray.
.  
arcarsenal : 1/9/2019 1:23 pm : link
I wouldn't hitch my wagon to a QB who weighs less than 200lbs and is under 6ft tall. I don't think the durability will be there and I don't think he'll be able to withstand taking hits from NFL defenders who are bigger, stronger, and faster than the guys he played against @ OU.

He won't last.
RE: .  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 1/9/2019 1:24 pm : link
In comment 14255550 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Psst...

No one has compared anything about Murray's actual game to Lamar Jackson's.

Jackson was brought up twice. Once by Dan to illustrate a financial point and once by me simply to point to the fact that if his durability is a concern to anyone, it will be even more of one with Murray.

Yes, height wise he's about the same as Russell Wilson - but the extra 20-25lbs. Wilson has on him is a big deal. That's all muscle and helps him absorb contact.

Murray won't last one year taking hits from NFL linebackers at his size. He doesn't even weigh 200 lbs. He's tiny. Yes, he's a great athlete and he can sling it... but I see a great college QB, not a great pro prospect.

Murray isn't a QB you can build a team around.


I only brought up Jackson for the reason that a NFL team thought he was worthy of a first round pick and he can't throw remotely as well as Murray. He's running a fluke offense where he's taking hits left and right. I don't think that would be an issue with Murray.

For me, his body type as a collegian is far less of a concern than his arm talent.
RE: .  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 1:26 pm : link
In comment 14255581 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I wouldn't hitch my wagon to a QB who weighs less than 200lbs and is under 6ft tall. I don't think the durability will be there and I don't think he'll be able to withstand taking hits from NFL defenders who are bigger, stronger, and faster than the guys he played against @ OU.

He won't last.

That's a valid concern but I think it is worth taking a chance with a late 1st or early 2nd round pick. I wouldn't touch him at 6 but If he can be had with their 2nd round pick I wouldn't complain even if they traded up a few spots. Murray would be ready to go in 2020 after a year learning behind a veteran and more importantly a year in an NFL strength and conditioning program.
.  
arcarsenal : 1/9/2019 1:27 pm : link
Here's the other thing...

Murray will probably be drafted in the same area of the draft that Jackson was. And we're picking in the same area we were last year.

If you really want Murray, you'll likely have to move back up into the tail end of the first round to do it. We do have a bunch of picks and could probably package something to do it, but I don't think we'd be able to get Murray by standing pat with the picks we currently have.

6 is too early - we'd be sacrificing better value elsewhere. Have to take the best player on the board there and it won't be Murray.
RE: .  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 1:45 pm : link
In comment 14255592 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Here's the other thing...

Murray will probably be drafted in the same area of the draft that Jackson was. And we're picking in the same area we were last year.

If you really want Murray, you'll likely have to move back up into the tail end of the first round to do it. We do have a bunch of picks and could probably package something to do it, but I don't think we'd be able to get Murray by standing pat with the picks we currently have.

6 is too early - we'd be sacrificing better value elsewhere. Have to take the best player on the board there and it won't be Murray.

I would be willing to trade up into the end of round 1 to get him. The Giants would be moving up just 7-8 spots most likely. Now that is contingent upon Murray completely convincing the Giants that he is committed to football. That is my main concern with Murray. If he suffers a concussion in the preseason will he begin to question his decision?
If Murray enters the draft  
GoDeep13 : 1/9/2019 3:37 pm : link
He is the numbe one QB I want. His size doesn’t concern me at all since he plays very smart and doesn’t let himself take hits. He’s also not gonna be easy to get your hands on. He’s small but he’s is as elusive (if not more) as Lamar Jackson in the pocket. It be essentially like trying to catch a rabbit. He may not be able to bust 60+ yard runs on scrambles mike he did in college but I’m confident in his ability to avoid taking punishment.
Murray is a good baseball prospect...  
Dunedin81 : 1/9/2019 3:55 pm : link
and elite prospects actually do have a pretty good chance of making the bigs. But it's far from a sure thing, and even if he makes it and sticks he's likely going to need 3-4 years before he's established. So that's roughly 6 years of getting paid peanuts, slightly more peanuts, and then $500-$600K in his pre-arb years. And the minor league years are shitty. They're bus trips and hokey bullshit at parks and hoping you get called up to be the low man on an MLB totem pole.

The NFL is more dangerous and he may not get picked early, but the big payday - if it does come - would come much sooner, and the paychecks in the meantime will be quite good. In fact, he could have a solid NFL playing career and be done with it before he'd ever get to MLB free agency.

It's not as easy a decision as you suppose.
Personally I wouldn't consider #6 too early to take him  
Leg of Theismann : 1/9/2019 5:38 pm : link
But it seems a lot of people here are thinking we can get him at the end of round 1 if we trade up (a la Jackson last year). I don't know how confident I am that he'll still be there at the end of round 1. If he enters the draft I would feel more comfortable trading down from #6 and taking him in the middle of the first round. Obviously trading up from #38 to #30 to take him would be ideal considering we have the extra picks to make it happen, but I just don't see a playmaker like him lasting that long. He is a much better thrower of the ball than Jackson was, and he put up almost identical numbers to Baker Mayfield in the same offense and Mayfield just went #1 overall last year and may win rookie of the year.
RE: If Murray was 3 inches taller  
Leg of Theismann : 1/9/2019 5:47 pm : link
In comment 14255572 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
There would be daily threads about trading up to the #1 spot to take Murray.


Exactly this. Someone needs to explain to me why Baker Mayfield who just went #1 overall is a better prospect than Kyler Murray. They put up almost identical numbers in the same offense. Okay Baker is slightly bigger... well Murray is much quicker and faster. I'd take RB-like speed over an extra inch in height any day.
.  
arcarsenal : 1/9/2019 5:53 pm : link
Again... Mayfield is 25lbs heavier than Murray.

It's a durability issue. Murray doesn't do you any good if he's not on the field. How many hits do you think a 5'10", 195lb QB is going to withstand?

I will be stunned if Murray has any sort of long career in the NFL as a QB. How many QB's in the history of the NFL have had legitimately successful careers at that size? Not just his height... his height and weight.
The size/weight is a concern  
Jay on the Island : 1/9/2019 5:58 pm : link
but I think Kyler Murray is going to be very similar to Deshaun Watson if he focuses solely on football. He won't make an immediate impact IMO but he will develop into a good player. The Giants will need to invest in a good backup though.
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