According to this study by 538, it is successful less than 50% of the time on a league wide basis with only 25% of the teams having success rate higher than 50% in 2018 (Giants being one of them; Giants ran that combo 16% of the time).
| While the precise order in which passes and runs are called may not matter so much — several combinations are roughly equivalent to one another according to success rate — some trends are clear. Passes are more effective when called on early downs, and runs are more effective on third down. Running on first down, while often a mistake, can be salvaged with a pass on second down. And if you’re going to rush on back-to-back plays to open a series, you should do so sparingly because it will leave your team in an obvious passing situation more often than not. Your passing attack — and QB especially — will need to be well above average to consistently convert in those high-leverage spots where all deception is gone and defenders can be confident that they know what’s coming. |
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I do racal that Mike Shanahan was very successful using the contrarian run option on 3rd down in Denver.
Looking at the charts, however, the Giants aren't doing that bad with the traditional run-run-pass format (51.5% success).
I guess it comes down to your personnel. I'm thinking that Pete Carroll got used to the traditional format when he had "beast-mo" punishing people on 1st and 2nd downs. Now he's gone.
And counters.
Vs. the sequence.
Obviously. As opposed to tee-ing off on pass rush. That's why the east west stuff.
It shouldn't really matter what down it is.