Buster Olney is reporting that the White Sox offer to Machado is a 7 year deal for only $175 mil. The Yanks have to be players at this price point, no?
"Fancred's Jon Heyman hears that the White Sox's reported offer of seven years, $175 million to Manny Machado is "way off."
ESPN's Buster Olney presented those numbers on Wednesday afternoon. Word is the White Sox aren't willing to go beyond seven years for Machado -- or Bryce Harper, for that matter -- but Heyman writes that the dollar value in this case "almost surely begins with a 2," as in $200-million-plus. The Phillies and Yankees are the only other two teams that have been connected publicly to Machado, though darkhorses could certainly emerge if the price drops well below the $300 million he was looking for at the start of the winter.
And the talk here is like it’s chicken feed. This for a guy who by his own words doesn’t go all out even in the playoffs. This is why people can’t afford to go to games and some can’t even afford to watch games on cable. Did somebody write there may be a work stoppage next year? What’s going on?
what it's worth a writer not named in this thread said he's heard "at least 2" teams have said they would be willing to surpass 200 million so yeah, the reporting seems off here.
And the talk here is like it’s chicken feed. This for a guy who by his own words doesn’t go all out even in the playoffs. This is why people can’t afford to go to games and some can’t even afford to watch games on cable. Did somebody write there may be a work stoppage next year? What’s going on?
CBA expires after 2021. A strike is almost guaranteed. Would be shocking if there wasn't one.
sports could be looking at work stoppages around that time.
NHL September 2020 can have a work stoppage, I think we'll know by September 2019 if either side terminates the agreement.
Bettman is a snake. and he ruined the Olympics.
Current NFL CBA expires after the 2020 season.
In addition to what DMM posted about MLB.
Not sure about NBA.
Bettman is like other commissioners just doing what his employer, the owners want. He might be a snake in regards to things he's done but I'm not sure the Olympics is one.
I can't really blame the owners for not wanting to shut down their seasons for a few weeks and risking injury to their stars while doing it. I know the owners are multi millionaires at least but it's still a business and who would want to put the well being of their business at risk like that?
sports could be looking at work stoppages around that time.
NHL September 2020 can have a work stoppage, I think we'll know by September 2019 if either side terminates the agreement.
Bettman is a snake. and he ruined the Olympics.
Current NFL CBA expires after the 2020 season.
In addition to what DMM posted about MLB.
Not sure about NBA.
Bettman is like other commissioners just doing what his employer, the owners want. He might be a snake in regards to things he's done but I'm not sure the Olympics is one.
I can't really blame the owners for not wanting to shut down their seasons for a few weeks and risking injury to their stars while doing it. I know the owners are multi millionaires at least but it's still a business and who would want to put the well being of their business at risk like that?
I would agree if Bettman didn't offer the Olympics to the players in 2018 if they extended the current CBA to 2025.
So sure he and his owners don't want to interrupt their season or risk their players being injured - I get that - unless they can profit from it.
the escrow is a stupid agreement for the players too.
And sure, he's only acting in his owners best interest, but so is Goodell and doesn't change the fact he's a snake either.
I just think the commissioners you mentioned are nothing more than puppets. If they didn't do the owners dirty business someone else would.
I tend to place the blame at the top, on the guys who issue the orders more so than those who do their bidding. If I was being honest, knowing what Goodell makes it would be hard not to just carry out what the owners want if I was in his shoes.
I know Betteman doesn't make nearly as much but he's really in a similar spot.
but just because they're doing their bosses bidding doesn't give them immunity from criticism.
Even if you and I would do exactly what Goodell is doing (for example) for $34M per year, I'd expect the same criticism Goodell gets.
That's part of the job IMO.
I know the game is changed a lot, but did people hate Rozelle this much? Tagliabue?
I barely remember Ziegler (NHL Commish before Bettman) ever being in the spotlight.
That's fair no question about it. They shouldn't be above criticism and deserve what they get.
I just wish fans would get on the owners more because that's where it starts. Goodell and Betteman are the easy targets and I think a lot of fans think the commissioners are neutral parties when in fact they're paid by the owners and have their best interests in mind when doing their jobs.
Look at baseball and PED's for another example. The owners didn't care about them as long as they were making money and helped the game recover from the strike where we actually lost a World Series.
Fans got pissed at the players, calling them cheats and holding them responsible for the whole mess. When in fact the sleazy car salesman Selig was doing nothing about PED's (just like the owners) until Congress made him by threatening their Anti Trust exemptions. That's when he acted on their behalf and shifted all the blame on the players when in fact they were all to blame.
And the talk here is like it’s chicken feed. This for a guy who by his own words doesn’t go all out even in the playoffs. This is why people can’t afford to go to games and some can’t even afford to watch games on cable. Did somebody write there may be a work stoppage next year? What’s going on?
what it's worth a writer not named in this thread said he's heard "at least 2" teams have said they would be willing to surpass 200 million so yeah, the reporting seems off here.
Machado will probably sign somewhere in the $225-250M range when all is said and done.
and said he heard from a source, "someone not with the Yankees or the Phillies but whose been in the game a long time and reads tealeaves well" that he thinks the way things are going it seems Harper will be a Philly and Machado will be a Yankee. Basically the Yankees are waiting to pounce. Here's a link to the clip. Link - ( New Window )
A few weeks ago, 10yr/$300M for Machado isn't worth it, I would rather offer him more money and less years...
Now that the White Sox offer is leaked.
I don't know if $26-$30M per year is worth it...
Can't make this shit up.
I'm not a Yankees fan and I've always thought he'll be a bad contract. And that's not considering Andujar. Only Yankees' fans feel like they can shun an Andujar for only $30 million for a more talented superstar, regardless of opportunity cost. But ya know, it's not your money, so I can see why you don't care. I'd want to get the most on field gains per dollar spent as possible. I think the Yankees haven't won a World Series in 9 years is because they don't have the starting pitching. Keuchel would be a better get and improve the team more. But I hope they do sign Machado just so I can celebrate when that stacked lineup loses to a team that can pitch.
unless average salaries are up, but the super stars are not getting paid like they were.
I wish they had age on here.
Where in the world did they get their inflation assumptions? Are they using Venezuelan dollars?
Sorry, I should have linked it, came from Fangraphs so you know there is a method to their madness. I think they just extrapolated based on how much average salaries or payrolls have grown since these contracts were signed. Link - ( New Window )
dad was recently on the radio and said the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers have made offers and the White Sox and a "mystery team" are still in the mix. John Heyman denies that the Yankees have made an official offer just "exchanged parameters." Link - ( New Window )
dad was recently on the radio and said the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers have made offers and the White Sox and a "mystery team" are still in the mix. John Heyman denies that the Yankees have made an official offer just "exchanged parameters." Link - ( New Window )
It seems like his dad is making stuff up to get his moment in the sun. Manny has said before that while he knew his dad growing up and I'm sure they're in some contact now, they don't have much of a relationship as he didn't live him with growing up.
I don’t believe his dad and I don’t believe the mystery team Â
the chance to keep that position. We get Manny or Bryce on a song then sure but otherwise keep adding quality depth to a team that will need to go several players deep for stretches in 2019
RE: I don’t believe his dad and I don’t believe the mystery team Â
This is all standard garbage being spewed out, happens all time with marquee players in every sport.
Every year there are "mystery teams" -- usually with Bora$ clients. Other agents have picked up the baton on this now. You can always count on a "mystery team" article for every top FA. They are the offseason equivalent of "So and So is in the Best Shape of His Career" articles that will start getting pumped out in 4 weeks.
the chance to keep that position. We get Manny or Bryce on a song then sure but otherwise keep adding quality depth to a team that will need to go several players deep for stretches in 2019
He deserves a spot in the lineup but with the way he played defense last year he does not "deserve" to play 3B
There's been a few articles lately on the decline in FA salaries Â
The players had it good for a while, but the owners have bamboozled them in a bunch of little ways. The players agreed to reduce costs for IFAs and Rookies and such thinking that that money would flow to them, but instead of getting more they're getting less.
and it seems like most teams don’t want to touch 10 year deals at all (no shit) and most don’t even want to touch 7 years. Whatever we offered to Cano is irrelevant - the bubble has popped and it’s a new MLB. I think teams are also going to brace for decreases in attendance. The Yankees haven’t sniffed 4m tickets sold, not even in their 2009 WS year in the new stadium. It’s been about 10%-15% lower over the past decade and I don’t see that budging much.
So if winning 100 games and/or winning a WS is still only going to sell 3.5m tickets, I completely understand why they don’t want to dish out 7+ year contracts, especially with no opt out. Just another angle to it, the economics of baseball are changing.
and it seems like most teams don’t want to touch 10 year deals at all (no shit) and most don’t even want to touch 7 years. Whatever we offered to Cano is irrelevant - the bubble has popped and it’s a new MLB. I think teams are also going to brace for decreases in attendance. The Yankees haven’t sniffed 4m tickets sold, not even in their 2009 WS year in the new stadium. It’s been about 10%-15% lower over the past decade and I don’t see that budging much.
So if winning 100 games and/or winning a WS is still only going to sell 3.5m tickets, I completely understand why they don’t want to dish out 7+ year contracts, especially with no opt out. Just another angle to it, the economics of baseball are changing.
This is what all seems to just be totally lost in all of the complaining about Hal "counting beans," not being his father, etc.
The financial climate has changed in MLB and teams have clearly done the math and figured out that these 7-10 year megadeals are just not working out. It's probably safe to assume that more often than not, the player either declines, winds up hurt, or doesn't even finish out the contract.
The bidding for a player like Bryce Harper would have been off the charts not that long ago. Now I'm not even sure he has actual offers from more than a couple of teams and it's almost February.
This isn't just a NYY thing. It's a MLB thing.
That said, if Machado can be had for 175M, I think the Yanks would be wise to jump in there.
Say Machado is like a 5 fWAR player on average for each of the next 7 years. That makes him worth 35 wins in a 7 year span.
If you assume that 1 WAR is worth approximately 8M, then any 7 year deal under 200M would be a bargain for a player of Machado's caliber.
5 fWAR might be mildly aggressive... but even if you knock it down to 4, it's still well worth it.
But where I think the real hang up is, is the term.
It's not that a team is completely against paying Harper or Machado - it's that they don't want to be paying them for 8, 9, and 10 years.
If Machado or Harper would take a 2 year, 80 million dollar deal right now, I bet a bunch of teams would be willing to do it. Problem is, the agents don't want to create that landmark and open that door. So, now we're approaching that stalemate where teams just don't want to pony up these decade-long commits but players and their agents won't accept similar money on half the term length.
I do believe a strike is in the cards if we continue down this road. The contract model and trajectory was very clearly unsustainable and the bubble is predictably popping.
4.2m in 2008 when they won 89 games, and then dropped 500k winning the WS the following season. I know a lot of that was due to wanting to be in the old YS for the last time, but it shows how weak of a draw the new stadium is. It was a beast to build, over 2 billion, and I’m guessing g the staff they have to have there is larger than at the old YS. Ridiculous ticket surges and rises in concessions is where they are at right now and it will never go away. So you control costs where you can and the math clearly points to the payroll, and payroll flexibility.
Looking up random teams attendance numbers show clear correlatio between tickets sold and team success. But it doesn’t for the Yankees. Looking at nothing but attendance numbers you would know if they won 80 games or 100. So if that was your business, why would you bend over backwards to sign someone just because you can, when they math says you don’t need to? If championships are your answer than I can just point to the 100 win team that actually had a lot go wrong with upside leftover.
It’s pretty fascinating how this all turned out. Back in July/August they were talking $300m+ for both these players and now it’s looking like less than 2/3 of that and continuing to drop. Granted we don’t know the definitive offers but they definitely can’t be in the realm of $300m, one would have signed by now if that was the case.
Also, are the Nats still in play for Harper and if so, have they dropped their offer from the summer?
"Fancred's Jon Heyman hears that the White Sox's reported offer of seven years, $175 million to Manny Machado is "way off."
ESPN's Buster Olney presented those numbers on Wednesday afternoon. Word is the White Sox aren't willing to go beyond seven years for Machado -- or Bryce Harper, for that matter -- but Heyman writes that the dollar value in this case "almost surely begins with a 2," as in $200-million-plus. The Phillies and Yankees are the only other two teams that have been connected publicly to Machado, though darkhorses could certainly emerge if the price drops well below the $300 million he was looking for at the start of the winter.
Source: Jon Heyman on Twitter"
Another mirage created by Coors
CBA expires after 2021. A strike is almost guaranteed. Would be shocking if there wasn't one.
NHL September 2020 can have a work stoppage, I think we'll know by September 2019 if either side terminates the agreement.
Bettman is a snake. and he ruined the Olympics.
Current NFL CBA expires after the 2020 season.
In addition to what DMM posted about MLB.
Not sure about NBA.
Amazing isn't it? What a clownshow.
NHL September 2020 can have a work stoppage, I think we'll know by September 2019 if either side terminates the agreement.
Bettman is a snake. and he ruined the Olympics.
Current NFL CBA expires after the 2020 season.
In addition to what DMM posted about MLB.
Not sure about NBA.
Bettman is like other commissioners just doing what his employer, the owners want. He might be a snake in regards to things he's done but I'm not sure the Olympics is one.
I can't really blame the owners for not wanting to shut down their seasons for a few weeks and risking injury to their stars while doing it. I know the owners are multi millionaires at least but it's still a business and who would want to put the well being of their business at risk like that?
Quote:
sports could be looking at work stoppages around that time.
NHL September 2020 can have a work stoppage, I think we'll know by September 2019 if either side terminates the agreement.
Bettman is a snake. and he ruined the Olympics.
Current NFL CBA expires after the 2020 season.
In addition to what DMM posted about MLB.
Not sure about NBA.
Bettman is like other commissioners just doing what his employer, the owners want. He might be a snake in regards to things he's done but I'm not sure the Olympics is one.
I can't really blame the owners for not wanting to shut down their seasons for a few weeks and risking injury to their stars while doing it. I know the owners are multi millionaires at least but it's still a business and who would want to put the well being of their business at risk like that?
I would agree if Bettman didn't offer the Olympics to the players in 2018 if they extended the current CBA to 2025.
So sure he and his owners don't want to interrupt their season or risk their players being injured - I get that - unless they can profit from it.
the escrow is a stupid agreement for the players too.
And sure, he's only acting in his owners best interest, but so is Goodell and doesn't change the fact he's a snake either.
I tend to place the blame at the top, on the guys who issue the orders more so than those who do their bidding. If I was being honest, knowing what Goodell makes it would be hard not to just carry out what the owners want if I was in his shoes.
I know Betteman doesn't make nearly as much but he's really in a similar spot.
Even if you and I would do exactly what Goodell is doing (for example) for $34M per year, I'd expect the same criticism Goodell gets.
That's part of the job IMO.
I know the game is changed a lot, but did people hate Rozelle this much? Tagliabue?
I barely remember Ziegler (NHL Commish before Bettman) ever being in the spotlight.
Even if you and I would do exactly what Goodell is doing (for example) for $34M per year, I'd expect the same criticism Goodell gets.
That's part of the job IMO.
I know the game is changed a lot, but did people hate Rozelle this much? Tagliabue?
I barely remember Ziegler (NHL Commish before Bettman) ever being in the spotlight.
That's fair no question about it. They shouldn't be above criticism and deserve what they get.
I just wish fans would get on the owners more because that's where it starts. Goodell and Betteman are the easy targets and I think a lot of fans think the commissioners are neutral parties when in fact they're paid by the owners and have their best interests in mind when doing their jobs.
Look at baseball and PED's for another example. The owners didn't care about them as long as they were making money and helped the game recover from the strike where we actually lost a World Series.
Fans got pissed at the players, calling them cheats and holding them responsible for the whole mess. When in fact the sleazy car salesman Selig was doing nothing about PED's (just like the owners) until Congress made him by threatening their Anti Trust exemptions. That's when he acted on their behalf and shifted all the blame on the players when in fact they were all to blame.
+1
Machado will probably sign somewhere in the $225-250M range when all is said and done.
You can't just sit there and let them get one of these guys and not get the other..
Link - ( New Window )
You can't just sit there and let them get one of these guys and not get the other..
It seems like that ship has sailed, can't imagine the Phillies buying it. It does make me wonder though if that's what the Nationals are doing.
Quote:
If nothing else at least drive the price up on Harper/Machado for Phillies..
You can't just sit there and let them get one of these guys and not get the other..
It seems like that ship has sailed, can't imagine the Phillies buying it. It does make me wonder though if that's what the Nationals are doing.
I mean..never too late for them to throw out the best offer.. it shouldn't really be hard to convince Harper to play in NY
Same ol Mets.. nothing's changed..
Sigh.
Now that the White Sox offer is leaked.
I don't know if $26-$30M per year is worth it...
Can't make this shit up.
I'm not a Yankees fan and I've always thought he'll be a bad contract. And that's not considering Andujar. Only Yankees' fans feel like they can shun an Andujar for only $30 million for a more talented superstar, regardless of opportunity cost. But ya know, it's not your money, so I can see why you don't care. I'd want to get the most on field gains per dollar spent as possible. I think the Yankees haven't won a World Series in 9 years is because they don't have the starting pitching. Keuchel would be a better get and improve the team more. But I hope they do sign Machado just so I can celebrate when that stacked lineup loses to a team that can pitch.
I wish they had age on here.
Where in the world did they get their inflation assumptions? Are they using Venezuelan dollars?
Quote:
unless average salaries are up, but the super stars are not getting paid like they were.
I wish they had age on here.
Where in the world did they get their inflation assumptions? Are they using Venezuelan dollars?
Sorry, I should have linked it, came from Fangraphs so you know there is a method to their madness. I think they just extrapolated based on how much average salaries or payrolls have grown since these contracts were signed.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
It seems like his dad is making stuff up to get his moment in the sun. Manny has said before that while he knew his dad growing up and I'm sure they're in some contact now, they don't have much of a relationship as he didn't live him with growing up.
Every year there are "mystery teams" -- usually with Bora$ clients. Other agents have picked up the baton on this now. You can always count on a "mystery team" article for every top FA. They are the offseason equivalent of "So and So is in the Best Shape of His Career" articles that will start getting pumped out in 4 weeks.
He deserves a spot in the lineup but with the way he played defense last year he does not "deserve" to play 3B
Baseball Is Broken. Can Anything Short of a Strike Fix It?
Baseball Doesn't Need Collusion To Turn Off The Hot Stove
MLB's Slow Offseason Hints At Larger Problems, Possible Strike
So if winning 100 games and/or winning a WS is still only going to sell 3.5m tickets, I completely understand why they don’t want to dish out 7+ year contracts, especially with no opt out. Just another angle to it, the economics of baseball are changing.
So if winning 100 games and/or winning a WS is still only going to sell 3.5m tickets, I completely understand why they don’t want to dish out 7+ year contracts, especially with no opt out. Just another angle to it, the economics of baseball are changing.
This is what all seems to just be totally lost in all of the complaining about Hal "counting beans," not being his father, etc.
The financial climate has changed in MLB and teams have clearly done the math and figured out that these 7-10 year megadeals are just not working out. It's probably safe to assume that more often than not, the player either declines, winds up hurt, or doesn't even finish out the contract.
The bidding for a player like Bryce Harper would have been off the charts not that long ago. Now I'm not even sure he has actual offers from more than a couple of teams and it's almost February.
This isn't just a NYY thing. It's a MLB thing.
That said, if Machado can be had for 175M, I think the Yanks would be wise to jump in there.
Say Machado is like a 5 fWAR player on average for each of the next 7 years. That makes him worth 35 wins in a 7 year span.
If you assume that 1 WAR is worth approximately 8M, then any 7 year deal under 200M would be a bargain for a player of Machado's caliber.
5 fWAR might be mildly aggressive... but even if you knock it down to 4, it's still well worth it.
But where I think the real hang up is, is the term.
It's not that a team is completely against paying Harper or Machado - it's that they don't want to be paying them for 8, 9, and 10 years.
If Machado or Harper would take a 2 year, 80 million dollar deal right now, I bet a bunch of teams would be willing to do it. Problem is, the agents don't want to create that landmark and open that door. So, now we're approaching that stalemate where teams just don't want to pony up these decade-long commits but players and their agents won't accept similar money on half the term length.
I do believe a strike is in the cards if we continue down this road. The contract model and trajectory was very clearly unsustainable and the bubble is predictably popping.
Looking up random teams attendance numbers show clear correlatio between tickets sold and team success. But it doesn’t for the Yankees. Looking at nothing but attendance numbers you would know if they won 80 games or 100. So if that was your business, why would you bend over backwards to sign someone just because you can, when they math says you don’t need to? If championships are your answer than I can just point to the 100 win team that actually had a lot go wrong with upside leftover.
It’s pretty fascinating how this all turned out. Back in July/August they were talking $300m+ for both these players and now it’s looking like less than 2/3 of that and continuing to drop. Granted we don’t know the definitive offers but they definitely can’t be in the realm of $300m, one would have signed by now if that was the case.
Also, are the Nats still in play for Harper and if so, have they dropped their offer from the summer?