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Let's analyze Drew Lock shall we....

sxdxca : 1/30/2019 11:47 pm
Last week I was able to share some thoughts as to why Daniel Jones is not our QB of the futre. This week let's have a look at Drew Lock.

We've all heard some rumors that the Giants are "obsessed" with Lock, however this may be a cause for "alarm", if this is true, and here is why...

Whenever I look at a QB, I try to see how he stacks up when his other peers play against the same defenses that he does.

What do the numbers show when they all played against South Carolina...


- Drew Lock - 17/36 47.2% 204 Yards 0 TD 2 Int 83.7 QBR

- Jake Fromm 15/18 83.3% 194 Yards 1 TD 1 Int 181.1 QBR

- Trevor lawrence 27/36 75.0% 393 Yards 1 TD 0 Int 175 QBR

As you can see, Lock is almost 40 points lower in completion percentage to Fromm, about 100 points lower in QBR compared to Fromm and Lawrence.

He needed about 20 more passes to throw the same amount of yardage as Fromm, and was almost 200 yards less in passing to Lawrence, while throwing the same amount of throws. He clearly was the worst QB against the same competition.

Now how does Lock stand up to the others when they played against Alabama? One of the best college football teams...

- Drew Lock 13/26 50.0% 142 Yards 1 TD 2 Int 93.2 QBR

- Kyler Murray 19/37 51.4% 308 Yards 2 TD 0 Int 139.1 QBR

- Jake Fromm 25/39 64.1% 301 Yards 3 TD 0 Int 154.3 QBR

- Trevor Lawrence 20/32 62.5% 347 Yards 3 TD 0 Int 184.5 QBR

As you can see, Lock failed again, he was the worst QB out of the four.

He was 14 points lower in completion percentage to Fromm, threw 2 more Int's then everybody else, was 70-100 points lower in QBR to Fromm and Lawrence, yet threw for 150-200 yards less then Lawrence and Fromm.

Does Lock have arm talent? Yes he does, but that doesn't make a QB Great. He is not good out of the pocket, he doesn't throw the ball well when you roll him out.

He also holds on to the ball to long, is not good under pressure, and not very mobile. This is not our QB of the future.

We need a Great, Great QB, and Lock, like Jones is not it.

I'll share soon who I do feel is going to be a star on the next level...

Feel free to discuss.


.  
B in ALB : 1/30/2019 11:51 pm : link
Analysis

Statistics

Sample sizes

Functionality

Analytics

Research

Technology
Da fuck did I just read?  
Anakim : 1/30/2019 11:55 pm : link
Wait, your argument is that one player is better than another because Player A performed better than Player B?
RE: Da fuck did I just read?  
Anakim : 1/30/2019 11:59 pm : link
In comment 14281705 Anakim said:
Quote:
Wait, your argument is that one player is better than another because Player A performed better than Player B?


Against a team, that is


I mean you realize that star players don't play in every game, right?
You realize how faulty this logic is, right?  
Anakim : 1/31/2019 12:15 am : link
"Whenever I look at a QB, I try to see how he stacks up when his other peers play against the same defenses that he does."


Defensive players don't play, defensive players get injured and aren't 100%, defensive schemes change based on the offense they're going against, there's garbage duty, defenses give up, defenses play more to stop the run than the pass...


And not every QB will have a stellar game each game he plays. And sometimes, a shitty QB will play well against a good defense.


In 2012, Aaron Rodgers had a stat line of 219 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 56% comp. percentage.

Two week prior? Andy Dalton threw 4 TDs against the Giants.


Would anyone say Dalton was/is better than Rodgers?

In that same year,
I asked this last time you applied...  
bw in dc : 1/31/2019 12:24 am : link
used such a statistical analysis gem...

How many 4 and 5 star players does Missouri have?

And when you get that, assuming you can, compare that number to the number of 4 and 5 star players Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson have.

It may add some perspective to your analysis.
Basically worthless  
You'reMyBoyBlue!! : 1/31/2019 12:42 am : link
The Missouri roster is significantly outclassed compared to Oklahoma, Alabama Clemson and Georgia. You can't draw any real conclusions based on how their respective QBs perform vs common opponents.

And there was torrential downpour in the Missouri South Carolina game. Again, variables matter.
All you can really do is look at these guys  
mattyblue : 1/31/2019 12:49 am : link
accuracy, awareness, arm, etc... the stats donít really matter. Of course to a certain degree they can be helpful, but most of these guys are throwing to kids that will never make the NFL. As BW mentions, some of them have better players than the next guy, some have better coaches and systems, and some may not look the part in college but are able to make the jump to the NFL. Itís pointless arguing with one another when people say so and so will suck and the other guy will be great. The older QBs coming out of school are maybe 22/23 tops? The younger ones can be 20, you arenít going to find the magic number that differentiates one guy from the next. They mostly will need to be able to take the next step. Eli was ok in college, I am not looking it up but I think he had an even 60% completion percentage, the pedigree and knowledge were there. Ben Roethlisberger looked like a monster in college. You could tell he could play, and he was coming out Miami (OH) which wasnít really a powerhouse.

I donít know if the Giants will draft a QB this year, next year, first round, second round but you canít really compare one to the next. You give a guy a grade and thatís that. It doesnít matter if itís a good or bad draft class, when itís your turn you are looking at 1 player. Is he good enough to play in the NFL? Do the befits our weight the risks? etc..
Outweigh  
mattyblue : 1/31/2019 12:50 am : link
Sorry
Hahahaha  
mattyblue : 1/31/2019 12:55 am : link
B that was awesome! I didnít even see it
RE: Hahahaha  
B in ALB : 1/31/2019 1:18 am : link
In comment 14281720 mattyblue said:
Quote:
B that was awesome! I didnít even see it


Hey Matt! Hope you're doing well, my friend.
Phase One: Collect Underpants  
GeorgeAdams33 : 1/31/2019 1:55 am : link
Phase Two: ????

Phase Three: PROFITS

YESSSSSSSSSS
_______  
I am Ninja : 1/31/2019 3:12 am : link
same shit as last year. if theres only one qb every 5 years worthy of being drafted, youre going to be looking for a quarterback literally forever. all of these "heres why none of these guys are any good" threads/series are tiresome.

But go ahead and hold out hope for the Clemson kid or the Bama kid. Let me know how that works out for you.
He is mobile  
jeff57 : 1/31/2019 5:26 am : link
Of the top 4 QBs in the draft, he has the best arm and throws better on the run than Haskins and Jones.
.  
Giantology : 1/31/2019 6:35 am : link
Letís pick a sample size of 2, and compare 4 subjects while  
mfsd : 1/31/2019 7:17 am : link
ignoring all other obvious variables (different OLs, different receivers, different play callers, injuries) using 2-3 inherently flawed statistics and pretend itís intelligent analysis!
On top of the sparkling  
section125 : 1/31/2019 7:47 am : link
analease, you said the Giants were obsessed with Lock. That was debunked as to the Giants press corp is obsessed with Lock.
Iím starting to  
cokeduplt : 1/31/2019 8:06 am : link
Come around to Lock. Quick release, strong arm, mobile. He has a ton of potential. Shurmur could hopefully make him realize it.
Assfart  
GiantNatty : 1/31/2019 8:12 am : link
is there any other kind?
yea  
Rocky369 : 1/31/2019 8:29 am : link
but they call it something different
Every..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 1/31/2019 8:43 am : link
fucking week, we are foisted these heaping piles of shit on us.

Makes me almost yearn for JerseyJoe's weekly "7 Ways the Giants Need to Improve" threads.

This schuck is actually a lot like JerseyJoe - thinks he is doing analysis, when it isn't that at all. It's an opinion and usually not even a good one at that.
RE: Every..  
Big Blue '56 : 1/31/2019 8:44 am : link
In comment 14281786 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
fucking week, we are foisted these heaping piles of shit on us.

Makes me almost yearn for JerseyJoe's weekly "7 Ways the Giants Need to Improve" threads.

This schuck is actually a lot like JerseyJoe - thinks he is doing analysis, when it isn't that at all. It's an opinion and usually not even a good one at that.


Perhaps he is JJ?
Caring about QBR?  
Ten Ton Hammer : 1/31/2019 9:06 am : link
Huh???  
anon837 : 1/31/2019 11:41 am : link
Here's some more numbers for you in 2 games against Alabama:

Pass 24/31 253 8.2 2 0 86.4
Rush 18 92 5.1 0 32

Pass 28/39 464 11.9 5 2 78.9
Rush 14 98 7.0 0 20

Who is this? 1st round bust Johnny Manziel. Guys have great numbers in college, but sometimes it just doesn't translate to the next level. Playing in the NFL, especially QB, requires you to be headstrong and wired tightly upstairs. Johnny didn't have it. Personally I like Jones and Haskins. Who knows? They could flame out in a year (and I'm not trying to jinx anyone). Numbers are nice, but it's the game film the scouts and GMs need to see, the interviews of players, and the coaching system of the team that would give a good determination of where they will land and how far they CAN go in the league.
RE: Every..  
Strahan91 : 1/31/2019 11:46 am : link
In comment 14281786 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
fucking week, we are foisted these heaping piles of shit on us.

Makes me almost yearn for JerseyJoe's weekly "7 Ways the Giants Need to Improve" threads.

This schuck is actually a lot like JerseyJoe - thinks he is doing analysis, when it isn't that at all. It's an opinion and usually not even a good one at that.

He has to be trolling at this point. There's no other explanation even though this is a huge waste of time for a troll job.
Your logic may be a little off  
Captplanet : 1/31/2019 12:21 pm : link
but I appreciate your effort.
Thank you
Unreal  
PaulN : 1/31/2019 3:03 pm : link
He didn't play against those teams alone, do you think (probably not), that the players around him may have just a little to do with his stats against those teams, he plays on a pretty crappy team, Trevor Lawrence plays on the National Championship Team.

Other then that great job.
Not Sure if Anyone Cares But  
tmanic21 : 1/31/2019 4:41 pm : link
Here are my raw notes going through Lock's '17 tape for just one game.Hope this helps, but just trying to give a sense of film study if anyone cares:

vs Kentucky '17
Good
Quick Game Placement
slant 4:15 ish mark
+low, quick release
Poor on Out Route in Scat
right after big TD (next possession)
footwork solid (pointing to target, knee flex)
just misses wide
Hitch in Hoss
++timing (best anticipation throw of day)
placement good
FBI in Zone Read
able to make simple reads pre-snap
this is obvious but like the urgency when he sees a situation
5ish mark, vs 2 deep with */NB CD to 2 in spread
does not waste time post snap
BUT>
post snap reads can get aggressive with pulls
infrequent but GT Counter Pull at 17:55
reading the OLB/Edge
he wants the 1v1 and gets tackled
Arm Talent/Guts fpr Bog Throw
ability to attack Turkey Hole with ease
type 1 throw challenges and beats S West for a TD
S messes up the angle a bit
these types of throws may be the death of him
bc he stares down route a bit
Play Speed Under Pressure
solid/Good
ability to isolate/eliminate somewhat quickly in half-field read
feels pressure well at times
BUT when the pressure comes
over protects himself?
spatial awareness for pocket would be adequate
See it Throw it Deep Balls
2nd reaction/hang on Iso Go Route
2x2 X Running Go vs clear C4
stares down receiver, but ok
hangs on to buy time, mini hitches, gather step
not a rhythm thrower
total cannon of arm strength
throws open in stride vs. BIG cushion of L Johnson
takes a hit for it
<RECORD>
Footwork
overall adequate/solid
on the fence about this
feet not active but often has good alignment, and moves with the progression
has a tendency to get robotic or off rhythm
BUT
in RZ Throwing Intermediate Seam Ball
takes a 1/2 step and then goes to hitching
gonna be hard to be in rhythm
also head gear goes and waits for WR to get open
Mobility
overall solid/good ability to move in speed option plays
fluid lateral movement
17ish mark
smooth pitch
NOTE he did not flash this in SB pratices




Bad
Throwing on the Move
placement falls short
looks like genuine short arm
:44
FBI/Awareness
Simple zone exchange for a sack
he does not knwo that the pass pro has a front side issue
- pocket vision
Deep ball accuracy
misses a switch fade
a half beat off
has a slight drift from midline on a 2:30 throw
Reads
vs 2-hi that rotates late to 1-hi
he jams in a 1st slant in dbl slants
placement marginal/adequate
but why not go to the 2nd receiver?
ANGLE SO MUCH BETTER
timing adequate
dont trust that he is actually seeing the defensive leverage
this was VERY clear with inside lev presnap
Intermediate Concept Touch
particularly on crossing routes
placement is marginal-poor often
pace of throw
he wants to gun it
can see he does not naturally want to throw with anticipation
Need a lot more here

The best part of this nonsense  
dep026 : 1/31/2019 4:58 pm : link
Is he never comes back to the thread. He does the same thing on another BBH and gets ripped there.

Why he isnít banned yet is just amazing.
.  
arcarsenal : 1/31/2019 5:57 pm : link
RESEARCH!!!!!!!
So Missouri is equal to Georgia or Clemson??  
Dave on the UWS : 1/31/2019 6:35 pm : link
Ok if you say so (the stupid here has reached new heights)
RE: The best part of this nonsense  
mattyblue : 2/1/2019 12:16 am : link
In comment 14282685 dep026 said:
Quote:
Is he never comes back to the thread. He does the same thing on another BBH and gets ripped there.

Why he isnít banned yet is just amazing.


He used to do this all the time last year. With all the QBs. Darnold averaged 11.8 yards passing with no wind and 6.7 yards with wind. Therefore it is an obvious conclusion that Darnold should not be drafted after on player with two syllables in his first name....

If he spends time compiling these stats he should try probably learn football is a team based game and individual stats by college QBs have way too many variables to compare things in this manner.
I wonder..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 2/1/2019 8:15 am : link
if he even truly compiles stats:

Quote:
If he spends time compiling these stats he should try probably learn football is a team based game and individual stats by college QBs have way too many variables to compare things in this manner.


I don't know about this particular thread, but the few times he's been fact-checked on what he's posted, he's been off by quite a bit. A lot of the stats he posted about Webb turned out to be made up
Tmanic  
idiotsavant : 2/1/2019 9:34 am : link
"turkey hole"? Really? Turkey hole? Wtf?


------

You guys are obsessed.

Do the QB thing in 2020.
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