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NFT: Mets Talk - Gio

allstarjim : 2/1/2019 10:44 am
I thought the Mets were done before the Justin Wilson signing. Now reports that they are in on Gio Gonzalez.

Would be amazing if true. That signing would elevate the Mets to perhaps the best on-paper team in the NL. I think much better than even the Dodgers.

Padres are talking to Gio as well.
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Better  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 10:48 am : link
than the Dodgers on paper? No way. The Mets are currently projected for 85 wins per ZIPS, which would be 5th in the NL. Dodgers are projected to win 93 games. Gio Gonzalez would be a solid addition but c'mon lol He's clearly trending the wrong way. 4.16 FIP in 2018 and 33 years old. Again, I'd be all about it but Gio at best is a 2ish fWAR swing over Vargas.
I would like them to sign Gio  
pjcas18 : 2/1/2019 10:49 am : link
as I've said previously, but I don't hold Gio in that high regard.

I think it would be a depth signing, innings eater kind of move. He'd be expected to compete with Vargas for #5 starter and provide insurance for the eventual Matz (or god forbid other) injury and protect against the lack of depth/talent in Syracuse.

So I am 100% behind signing him (short-term), but I view it as a depth signing and I don't think it changes much from today in terms of where teams stand in the "rankings"

Mets SP depth  
sshin05 : 2/1/2019 10:50 am : link
is very thin, adding a guy like Gio is needed but he is on the wrong side of 30.
Again  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 10:51 am : link
I'd be all about Gio Gonzalez but I think his name has people a little bit too excited over him. His last 96 starts (3 years) he has a 3.95 FIP, last 2 seasons, 4.04 (64 starts). He's a solid back of the rotation SP and better than Vargas. He's not the guy people remember from 4 or 5 seasons ago with the Nats.
It would be a good move  
Vanzetti : 2/1/2019 10:51 am : link
That way Vargas becomes the injury replacement starter. Keeps Lugo and Gman in the pen.
RE: I would like them to sign Gio  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 10:52 am : link
In comment 14283388 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
as I've said previously, but I don't hold Gio in that high regard.

I think it would be a depth signing, innings eater kind of move. He'd be expected to compete with Vargas for #5 starter and provide insurance for the eventual Matz (or god forbid other) injury and protect against the lack of depth/talent in Syracuse.

So I am 100% behind signing him (short-term), but I view it as a depth signing and I don't think it changes much from today in terms of where teams stand in the "rankings"


100% agree. Though I think Gio would be the clear #4 or #5 with Vargas to the pen (he wouldn't sign here to compete for such a role).
RE: It would be a good move  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 10:53 am : link
In comment 14283392 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
That way Vargas becomes the injury replacement starter. Keeps Lugo and Gman in the pen.


They have said Gsellman is 100% RP going forward regardless. Lugo on the other hand could see starts this year.
RE: Better  
allstarjim : 2/1/2019 10:54 am : link
In comment 14283385 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
than the Dodgers on paper? No way. The Mets are currently projected for 85 wins per ZIPS, which would be 5th in the NL. Dodgers are projected to win 93 games. Gio Gonzalez would be a solid addition but c'mon lol He's clearly trending the wrong way. 4.16 FIP in 2018 and 33 years old. Again, I'd be all about it but Gio at best is a 2ish fWAR swing over Vargas.


Yes way. I don't care about ZIPS or DIPS or FLIPS.
RE: RE: Better  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 11:01 am : link
In comment 14283399 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 14283385 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


than the Dodgers on paper? No way. The Mets are currently projected for 85 wins per ZIPS, which would be 5th in the NL. Dodgers are projected to win 93 games. Gio Gonzalez would be a solid addition but c'mon lol He's clearly trending the wrong way. 4.16 FIP in 2018 and 33 years old. Again, I'd be all about it but Gio at best is a 2ish fWAR swing over Vargas.



Yes way. I don't care about ZIPS or DIPS or FLIPS.


All due respect. NOBODY but a Mets fan would have Gio Gonzalez vaulting the Mets to the best team in the NL. Sorry.
Davenport  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 11:04 am : link
projects the Mets to win 86 games, 5th in the NL behind Dodgers (96 wins), Colorado, Cubs, Nationals. But he also has the Braves and Phillies 1 and 2 wins behind the Mets which means Harper, Kimbrel etc would vault them ahead of the Mets in his projections. Has the Brewers winning 85, Reds and Cardinals 84.
The only way the Mets can be close to best team on paper  
Vanzetti : 2/1/2019 11:06 am : link
is if you are very, very optimistic about Cespedes coming back and being the player he was in 2015/6.
RE: The only way the Mets can be close to best team on paper  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 11:07 am : link
In comment 14283417 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
is if you are very, very optimistic about Cespedes coming back and being the player he was in 2015/6.


Both Jeff and Omar have basically said anything he brings is gravy. Jeff if anything would be over the top positive and wasn't so even the Mets aren't expecting anywhere near that.
Speaking of Gio  
sshin05 : 2/1/2019 11:07 am : link
Why can't they go for a player like Keuchel? 6 War last 2 seasons; a clear upgrade from Gio and younger to boot. Not as good since his Cy Young a few years ago but would be top 3 in most rotations.
Also  
sshin05 : 2/1/2019 11:11 am : link
i dont recall seeing so many terrific players on the market still with 2 weeks to go for spring training. Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Kimbrel, etc
RE: Speaking of Gio  
Jay on the Island : 2/1/2019 11:11 am : link
In comment 14283420 sshin05 said:
Quote:
Why can't they go for a player like Keuchel? 6 War last 2 seasons; a clear upgrade from Gio and younger to boot. Not as good since his Cy Young a few years ago but would be top 3 in most rotations.

The Astros reportedly have a 2 year deal with an option on the table for Keuchel. Milwaukee has offered 3 years and the Braves have also made an offer but unsure of the terms which means they are likely a distant 3rd.
Jeff  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 11:12 am : link
actually implied it's possible we don't see Cespedes at all in 2019 but second half would be the earliest.

Anthony DiComo

@AnthonyDiComo
The Mets expect Yoenis Cespedes to return "realistically, the second half of the season," Jeff Wilpon said on @WFAN660. He added that the timetable could be longer.
RE: Also  
Vanzetti : 2/1/2019 11:15 am : link
In comment 14283424 sshin05 said:
Quote:
i dont recall seeing so many terrific players on the market still with 2 weeks to go for spring training. Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Kimbrel, etc


Last year was somewhat similar with JD Martinez signing very late, along with a bunch of other guys.



Gio's upcoming stat line  
Frank in Silver Spring : 2/1/2019 11:18 am : link
will be 4 2/3 innings, 3 to 5 walks, 100 or so pitches. For that line - which he specializes in, along with looking bewildered each and every time he loses the strike zone - he will earn a minimum of $15 million per year.

Nice work if you can get it.
RE: Jeff  
Vanzetti : 2/1/2019 11:19 am : link
In comment 14283427 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
actually implied it's possible we don't see Cespedes at all in 2019 but second half would be the earliest.

Anthony DiComo

@AnthonyDiComo
The Mets expect Yoenis Cespedes to return "realistically, the second half of the season," Jeff Wilpon said on @WFAN660. He added that the timetable could be longer.


Yeah, doesn't sound good. Without him, I think that 86 win number is accurate. Especially given that the division looks to be strong. Mets play a third of their games against Nats, Phils and Braves. If Harper signs in the division, it just makes it tougher.
RE: Gio's upcoming stat line  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 11:20 am : link
In comment 14283434 Frank in Silver Spring said:
Quote:
will be 4 2/3 innings, 3 to 5 walks, 100 or so pitches. For that line - which he specializes in, along with looking bewildered each and every time he loses the strike zone - he will earn a minimum of $15 million per year.

Nice work if you can get it.


He's likely going to have to settle for less in this market. Miley only got 4.5.
RE: RE: RE: Better  
allstarjim : 2/1/2019 12:14 pm : link
In comment 14283408 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14283399 allstarjim said:


Quote:


In comment 14283385 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


than the Dodgers on paper? No way. The Mets are currently projected for 85 wins per ZIPS, which would be 5th in the NL. Dodgers are projected to win 93 games. Gio Gonzalez would be a solid addition but c'mon lol He's clearly trending the wrong way. 4.16 FIP in 2018 and 33 years old. Again, I'd be all about it but Gio at best is a 2ish fWAR swing over Vargas.



Yes way. I don't care about ZIPS or DIPS or FLIPS.



All due respect. NOBODY but a Mets fan would have Gio Gonzalez vaulting the Mets to the best team in the NL. Sorry.


Again, projections...pffft. I already have the Mets as at the top of the NL. Gio just makes them a touch better, addressing the biggest remaining weakness on this team.

A big reason why I believe in the Mets this year is the upcoming emergence of Alonso. I understand a lot of people are going to take the conservative route with his impact, but I think he's going to be tremendous.

I think the Mets starting pitching will be on par with the Dodgers, but their bullpen and 1-8 offensively will be better.

Alonso is the real impact bat added this year. Not Cespedes, but if Cespedes returns in August, and he returns to the hitter he was when he became a Met in the months following the Fulmer trade, and the Mets get into the playoffs, they are going to score a lot of runs.

And they probably have, right now, the best on-paper bullpen in baseball. Diaz's impact *should* be enormous for this team.

Yes, I expect some regression from deGrom, but I expected regression from him in the 2nd half of last season from the first half. What makes deGrom great...actually is sustainable. Can he duplicate last year? Probably not because that is an absurd bar. But I think he stays in the neighborhood.

Gio is an upgrade over Vargas  
Metnut : 2/1/2019 12:15 pm : link
but Iíd have preferred Holland or Miley. I wonder if Mets are interested in Keuchel.
I should add  
allstarjim : 2/1/2019 12:16 pm : link
I don't expect Gio to be what he used to be. I expect him to eat some innings, though, and provide a few more quality starts than Vargas and perhaps even Matz would provide. And that's enough for this group.
All of that said  
allstarjim : 2/1/2019 12:19 pm : link
I don't even expect the Mets to sign Gio. I think he'll get a better deal elsewhere than what the Mets would offer at this point.

But it's still great to see they are at least kicking the tires.
Aside from Gio or Dallas  
Metnut : 2/1/2019 12:51 pm : link
any other intriguing arms still on the market?
RE: Aside from Gio or Dallas  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 12:57 pm : link
In comment 14283580 Metnut said:
Quote:
any other intriguing arms still on the market?


Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz, Nathan Karns, Brett Anderson Liriano, Hellickson are probably the next group...
Jenrry Mejia  
pjcas18 : 2/1/2019 1:00 pm : link
deal in Boston is a minor league deal.

I think he could be a steal. I really liked his flexibility to be long man, start, close.

Not saying he was ever lights out, he wasn't and the walks drove me nuts, but he was also yanked around by the Mets too much IMO.
.  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 1:10 pm : link
Buchholz elbow is an issue but he too on a cheap deal might be worth a look. Quietly a solid 2018. New cutter makes it looks less like smoke and mirrors than you would think.
Minor league deal for Karns but might a nice move as well. Long injury history (like Anderson) but has always missed bats
RE: .  
pjcas18 : 2/1/2019 1:17 pm : link
In comment 14283613 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Buchholz elbow is an issue but he too on a cheap deal might be worth a look. Quietly a solid 2018. New cutter makes it looks less like smoke and mirrors than you would think.
Minor league deal for Karns but might a nice move as well. Long injury history (like Anderson) but has always missed bats


Always liked him, looks like Gollum though and oft-injured.

I'd welcome his signing too for short-money.
Agree with most of what's been said - I see Gio as Colon 2.0  
Eric on Li : 2/1/2019 2:00 pm : link
a guy who has proven to throw around 180-200 innings every season and mostly do so competently even though his stuff has declined.

I'm intrigued by his numbers at Citi and think that's a nice bonus.
RE: RE: Aside from Gio or Dallas  
Jay on the Island : 2/1/2019 2:21 pm : link
In comment 14283593 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 14283580 Metnut said:


Quote:


any other intriguing arms still on the market?



Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz, Nathan Karns, Brett Anderson Liriano, Hellickson are probably the next group...

I think Ervin Santana is going to be this seasons Anibal Sanchez. He was awful last year but he was also injured so taking a chance on him on a minor league deal is a no brainer IMO. Iím not suggesting that he will be a good mid rotation starter as he used to be but I think he could surprise and be a very good #5 type.
Cecchini  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 4:07 pm : link
clears waivers, that's what the league thinks of him yeesh.
Win predictions arenít going to be very kind  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 5:23 pm : link
To the Mets mainly because of their young lineup. Steamer/Zips/etc. isnít going to bake in a ton of projection into their totals and they certainly arenít going to reward guys coming off of one big year (usually they need to see 3 year samples before it starts matching up in projections) so itís really up to the fan to decide. Was Nimmoís breakout legit or was it smoke and mirrors? McNeil? Do you buy Rosarioís finish? How about somebody like Diaz? Was he legit last year? You start adding in some of those guys approaching their 2018 totals and you can easily find another 5 wins.

Not criticizing the system. Itís not meant to be biased and it calculates wins based off equations. Itís not supposed to differentiate between players but of course that also works against it. Not all players are created equal. I actually think between 85-88 wins is pretty good. That probably has us a wild card at minimum (again based off the projection system which is conservative).
No  
DanMetroMan : 2/1/2019 5:28 pm : link
different than the NL favorite Dodgers.

Is Muncy legit? How Good is Buehler? was 2018 a fluke or the real Kikť HernŠndez? Is Stripling legit? Can Ryu repeat his half-season? Could the Mets have more wins than the Dodgers? Anything is possible but you won't find anyone of note predicting the 2019 Mets (with Gio Gonzalez) to finish with the best record in the NL.
RE: RE: Jeff  
moze1021 : 2/1/2019 5:32 pm : link
In comment 14283437 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 14283427 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


actually implied it's possible we don't see Cespedes at all in 2019 but second half would be the earliest.

Anthony DiComo

@AnthonyDiComo
The Mets expect Yoenis Cespedes to return "realistically, the second half of the season," Jeff Wilpon said on @WFAN660. He added that the timetable could be longer.



Yeah, doesn't sound good. Without him, I think that 86 win number is accurate. Especially given that the division looks to be strong. Mets play a third of their games against Nats, Phils and Braves. If Harper signs in the division, it just makes it tougher.


All the reason to just sign Harper. I'm still hopeful!!
RE: No  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 7:05 pm : link
In comment 14283946 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
different than the NL favorite Dodgers.

Is Muncy legit? How Good is Buehler? was 2018 a fluke or the real Kikť HernŠndez? Is Stripling legit? Can Ryu repeat his half-season? Could the Mets have more wins than the Dodgers? Anything is possible but you won't find anyone of note predicting the 2019 Mets (with Gio Gonzalez) to finish with the best record in the NL.


I'd agree with this. Was more just talking about the wins specifically. The same would apply to other teams like the Dodgers and Braves as well.
Sign Gio...Wrap up deGrom's extension..  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 7:14 pm : link
and lets fucking get this season started!
Whatís sad about Cecchini is everyone  
bhill410 : 2/1/2019 7:16 pm : link
Knew it was a garbage pick st the time, everyone prayed the rumors were t accurate, he still drafted him and he still turned out exactly like every public scouting report
I could be alone but Im glad  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 7:20 pm : link
Cecchini cleared. He had a new swing early last spring/season, was getting hits, got hurt and was lost for the season... It makes sense why teams aren't claiming an oft-injured/2B only player this close to the season, but Im still glad he's getting another shot with us.
RE: Whatís sad about Cecchini is everyone  
Vanzetti : 2/1/2019 7:29 pm : link
In comment 14283997 bhill410 said:
Quote:
Knew it was a garbage pick st the time, everyone prayed the rumors were t accurate, he still drafted him and he still turned out exactly like every public scouting report


I think he was considered a high floor, low ceiling. Unfortunately, it turned out the floor was AAA.
Really cool Bullpen Breakdown  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 7:30 pm : link
and projection for 2019 from a fan shot on MMO. Well done.
Link - ( New Window )
AA finishes their Mets rankings  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 9:41 pm : link
and have Alonso first. Always enjoy their breakdowns. Damn, Im excited for this kid.
Link - ( New Window )
Some Atlanta guy on Twitter is saying  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 9:51 pm : link
the Braves have offered Gio a one year deal but the Mets have now bumped it to two.

Shecky???
I don't really understand Gio on the Braves...  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 9:55 pm : link
They have so many starters close, you would think they would have "backend options" covered.
.  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 9:57 pm : link
Paul Crane


@PaulCrane7
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Gio Gonzalez update: several teams, including ATL had discussed 1 yr deals. Mets just offered 2 years. @ScoutsHonorPod @929TheGame @MikeConti929
RE: Some Atlanta guy on Twitter is saying  
Shecky : 2/1/2019 10:20 pm : link
In comment 14284088 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
the Braves have offered Gio a one year deal but the Mets have now bumped it to two.

Shecky???

Boras is awfully good at his job, huh?
Mets need 8-9 plausible starters  
spike : 2/1/2019 10:33 pm : link
because starters get injured or nicked up and we won't have the depth = automatic losses.

RE: RE: Some Atlanta guy on Twitter is saying  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 10:40 pm : link
In comment 14284103 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14284088 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


the Braves have offered Gio a one year deal but the Mets have now bumped it to two.

Shecky???


Boras is awfully good at his job, huh?


Ah.. Got it. Thx.
RE: Mets need 8-9 plausible starters  
ZGiants98 : 2/1/2019 10:43 pm : link
In comment 14284110 spike said:
Quote:
because starters get injured or nicked up and we won't have the depth = automatic losses.


Everybody always says that but you cant have 8-9 "good starters". You cant sign players and stash them in AAA.

Best hope is guys like Flexen(who lost like 40 lbs) starts to round into depth this year.
Mets are starting to build a decent squad  
dpinzow : 2/2/2019 7:59 am : link
they just need the pitching to stay healthy
going 8-9 deep good starters is impossible, what's key is 3-4 w/ 30+  
Eric on Li : 2/2/2019 10:40 am : link
starts and solid ERA's at or under 4. They got pretty close to that last year. They had 3 guys start over 29 games and a 4th (Thor) had 25, but Matz didn't pitch all that great even though he stayed healthy. But thanks to JDG/Wheeler being as great as they were the pitching was still ranked very well.

In 2017 they only had 2 starters over 20 starts, 1 was JDG the other was Gsellman. So that makes it pretty obvious why things went south.

In 2016 they had 2 over 30 starts (Colon + Thor) and 2 in the mid 20's (Matz + JDG) and all 4 were under 4 eras.

In the miracle health year of 2015, all 5 starters stayed healthy and started over 29 games. Colon started 31 (w/ a 4.2 era), JDG 30, Harvey 29, Niese 29, Thor 24. If you count Thor's starts in the minors he made 30 starts as well. This absolutely needs to be the gold standard of pitching depth they strive for.

So net-net, signing Gio gives you a guy who is a much better bet to start 30 games with an ERA around 4 than Vargas and a total of 6 such veterans who have a chance to make 30 starts. To use 2015 as an analogy - Gio fills the Colon role, Matz is the new Jon Niese, 2019 JDG/Thor/Wheeler = 2015 JDG/Harvey/Thor and Vargas is Dillon Gee. Staying as healthy as 2015 is still unlikely but that's pitchers, they break. So start with 6 guys who have a chance to go over 30 starts and hope 4 do it. In 2015 we actually started with 7 if you count Wheeler he just blew out his elbow in ST which immediately brought them back down to 6. So even in that miracle year they weren't completely unscathed. They just had the depth to sustain it.
That year was unique though in that  
ZGiants98 : 2/2/2019 7:26 pm : link
we had two of the best SP prospects in baseball in AAA and everyone knew they were replacing Neise/Gee/etc. as soon as they were able to (Super Two). Sure that's great and all and it certainly does create "real depth", but I dont know how you can strive for a situation like that necessarily. The Braves have a lot of close SP prospects in AAA right now as well and that's great for them but those times come and go. You cant always have elite SP prospects a step away.

If you're like 90% of the teams in baseball every year that dont have that, the best you can do is invite a bunch of guys to camp on minor league deals and hope they dont opt out if they aren't on the team.

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