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NFT: It is now officially baseball season: Yankees discussion

Dunedin81 : 2/4/2019 8:43 am
And go...
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.  
arcarsenal : 2/5/2019 11:36 am : link
Judge making a little mini pitch for Harper... saying he'd switch positions and do whatever it took. Love that guy.
RE: .  
bigbluehoya : 2/5/2019 11:38 am : link
In comment 14287903 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Judge making a little mini pitch for Harper... saying he'd switch positions and do whatever it took. Love that guy.


hey arc - where ya seeing this?
RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 2/5/2019 11:45 am : link
In comment 14287907 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
In comment 14287903 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


Judge making a little mini pitch for Harper... saying he'd switch positions and do whatever it took. Love that guy.



hey arc - where ya seeing this?


Ask and ye shall receive, my friend.
Link - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 2/5/2019 11:46 am : link
Quote:
“[Harper has] got more speed than me, man,” Judge said. “Wherever he wants to play, we’ll make it work.”

The Yankees have been disinterested in the Harper sweepstakes, as the six-time All-Star strangely is still a free agent on Feb. 5. The Phillies reportedly are the front-runners for his services, with the Nationals, White Sox and Padres still involved.

“Any time you can add an MVP to a team, it’s going to make it better,” said Judge, who’s coming off a .278/.392/.528 All-Star season. “So, it just all depends on where he wants to go. [Manny] Machado, Bryce Harper, any of them.”
Jeez...  
Dnew15 : 2/5/2019 11:49 am : link
look at that picture in the link that arc sent.
Judge is an enormous human being.
RE: Grandy to the Marlins on a minor league deal...  
RasputinPrime : 2/5/2019 12:43 pm : link
In comment 14287877 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
I know he's a platoon guy at this point, but he's a 116 OPS+ and he can play all three OF positions, albeit not well. Plus he's a great, great guy.


One of my favorite all-time Yankees. Jeter knows.
No More Parades in Boston  
Essex : 2/5/2019 12:48 pm : link
We should sign both Machado and Harper (I know we won't but George would!). I am sick of these parades
RE: Jeez...  
Matt in SGS : 2/5/2019 12:50 pm : link
In comment 14287925 Dnew15 said:
Quote:
look at that picture in the link that arc sent.
Judge is an enormous human being.


One of the funny moments in the early season Yankees vs. Red Sox brawl was when Judge and Stanton both got into the scrum and literally pushed pretty much the entire mob of people towards the Boston dugout like an offensive line.
Why on earth would Machado take a one year deal?  
Ron from Ninerland : 2/5/2019 2:11 pm : link
From his point of view that makes absolutely no sense. A lot can happen in a year. He could get hurt, he could have a bad year and in the case of the Yankees he could get on the wrong side of the media or fans. Even under the best of circumstances he's facing a tougher market next year than this. Both he and Harper, or rather their agents badly misjudged the market, but that's water under the bridge. The only reasonable thing Machado can do now is take the best deal he can find, whether it be for $175 for $200 mil and get an opt out after a couple of years.
If Judge REALLY wanted Harper...  
Dan in the Springs : 2/5/2019 2:24 pm : link
he should sign a 10 year $40MM deal right now.

He'd still be a very rich man and would make the 10 yr $300MM deal for Harper much easier to take.

C'mon Judge, put your money where your mouth is.






J/K, of course.
Sorry, I'm afraid you're all jumping the gun here  
IIT : 2/5/2019 2:56 pm : link
Baseball season doesn't officially begin until the Stanley Cup has been won.
RE: Why on earth would Machado take a one year deal?  
arcarsenal : 2/5/2019 3:01 pm : link
In comment 14288097 Ron from Ninerland said:
Quote:
From his point of view that makes absolutely no sense. A lot can happen in a year. He could get hurt, he could have a bad year and in the case of the Yankees he could get on the wrong side of the media or fans. Even under the best of circumstances he's facing a tougher market next year than this. Both he and Harper, or rather their agents badly misjudged the market, but that's water under the bridge. The only reasonable thing Machado can do now is take the best deal he can find, whether it be for $175 for $200 mil and get an opt out after a couple of years.


Simple - he's trying to maximize his long-term value.

The landscape sucks for the players right now. Machado could lock himself into some sort of 7-8 year deal only for the players to wind up getting better deals halfway through and then be SOL because he can't get free until he's in his early/mid-30's.

It's entirely feasible that he could grab a higher one year value in 2019 than he'd get on average through a longer-term, and then, on top of that, wind up with a more lucrative long-term deal either next year or the year after.

There's certainly logic behind it. Just taking whatever is out there now might wind up looking really crappy in hindsight.
It's also possible that the real stumbling block isn't $ or years...  
Dunedin81 : 2/5/2019 3:04 pm : link
it's opt outs. And this may be him trying to leverage an opt-out out of Philly or whomever else is in on him.
Looks like Colorado might lock up Arenado  
The_Boss : 2/5/2019 3:05 pm : link
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RE: Looks like Colorado might lock up Arenado  
Mike from SI : 2/5/2019 4:47 pm : link
In comment 14288183 The_Boss said:
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- Link - ( New Window )


Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.
RE: RE: Looks like Colorado might lock up Arenado  
mfsd : 2/5/2019 4:51 pm : link
In comment 14288328 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
In comment 14288183 The_Boss said:


Quote:


- Link - ( New Window )



Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.


I think the Yankees were too.
RE: RE: Looks like Colorado might lock up Arenado  
Ryan in Albany : 2/5/2019 4:59 pm : link
In comment 14288328 Mike from SI said:
Quote:
In comment 14288183 The_Boss said:


Quote:


- Link - ( New Window )





Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.



River Ave. Blues
@RiverAveBlues
Don’t worry,
@Yankees
are just gonna wait out Vlad Jr’s FA to spend big
Boone was interviewed yesterday...  
Dunedin81 : 2/6/2019 8:43 am : link
and said he's pretty sure this is the team they're taking to ST. So there's that.
RE: RE: RE: Looks like Colorado might lock up Arenado  
section125 : 2/6/2019 8:55 am : link
In comment 14288336 mfsd said:
Quote:
In comment 14288328 Mike from SI said:


Quote:


In comment 14288183 The_Boss said:


Quote:


- Link - ( New Window )



Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.



I think the Yankees were too.


Machado is younger and better, why would they opt for Arenado? Are they trying to become Rockies East or did Colorado become the new Kansas City pipeline?
Machado Fascination  
Percy : 2/6/2019 9:15 am : link
Has to come to an end. It's like wanting to replace Eli this year. Endless. But, IMHO, not happening.
I know it's early for 7/2 IFA talk, but...  
Dunedin81 : 2/6/2019 12:46 pm : link
BA projects the top 2019 IFA prospect, Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez, will receive a $5 mil bonus. He has been linked to the Yankees, and since the rest of the top 10 are not they may be planning to put their eggs in that basket. Tooled up with now-power and hitting ability
RE: I know it's early for 7/2 IFA talk, but...  
dune69 : 2/6/2019 1:02 pm : link
In comment 14288991 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
BA projects the top 2019 IFA prospect, Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez, will receive a $5 mil bonus. He has been linked to the Yankees, and since the rest of the top 10 are not they may be planning to put their eggs in that basket. Tooled up with now-power and hitting ability


If the Yankee scouts see elite skills, I have no issue in overpaying. Elite talent comes to those that are terrible, hence high draft picks, or those that overpay.
I mentioned this on Twitter too...  
Dunedin81 : 2/6/2019 1:09 pm : link
but the consensus top IFA prospects usually develop significant prospect value. They won't all be Wander Franco, Vlad Jr. or Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres, but outside of Dermis Garcia and Kevin Maitan the majority have become at minimum strong trade chips.
Draft choices and money  
dune69 : 2/6/2019 1:14 pm : link
are always the gamble but if you have good scouting and a little luck, sometimes you hit gold.
From my distant cave  
dune69 : 2/6/2019 1:21 pm : link
I thought Dermis Garcia would be outstanding. Glad I'm not making these decisions.
Dermis isn't completely a lost cause...  
Dunedin81 : 2/6/2019 1:24 pm : link
some of the other signs from that year are though.
RE: I mentioned this on Twitter too...  
Mike from SI : 2/6/2019 2:32 pm : link
In comment 14289016 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
but the consensus top IFA prospects usually develop significant prospect value. They won't all be Wander Franco, Vlad Jr. or Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres, but outside of Dermis Garcia and Kevin Maitan the majority have become at minimum strong trade chips.


If you don't mind posting it, what's your twitter handle?
Sure  
Dunedin81 : 2/6/2019 2:34 pm : link
@VirginiaYankee1
Dunedin is  
JPinstripes : 2/6/2019 3:59 pm : link
a great follow on twitter.
RE: Dunedin is  
Jay in Toronto : 2/6/2019 4:09 pm : link
In comment 14289167 JPinstripes said:
Quote:
a great follow on twitter.


Yea, but he doesn't list himself as a Giants fan!!!!!!
Anyway we can call up Kevin Maas?  
GMAN4LIFE : 2/6/2019 4:10 pm : link
.
RE: RE: Dunedin is  
Mike from SI : 2/6/2019 4:20 pm : link
In comment 14289177 Jay in Toronto said:
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In comment 14289167 JPinstripes said:


Quote:


a great follow on twitter.



Yea, but he doesn't list himself as a Giants fan!!!!!!


BURN THE WITCH
Harper shaved his beard  
Eli Wilson : 2/6/2019 9:02 pm : link
Anyone buying into the no beard=Yankees rumor/connection?


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RE: Harper shaved his beard  
The_Boss : 2/6/2019 10:20 pm : link
In comment 14289413 Eli Wilson said:
Quote:
Anyone buying into the no beard=Yankees rumor/connection?
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Is there a Harper/Yankee rumor I may have missed?
It's going to be a particular pleasure  
Jay in Toronto : 2/6/2019 11:26 pm : link
Rooting for J.A. Happ given my pulling for his cousin Ethan on the Badgers.
Good articles in  
section125 : 2/7/2019 7:18 am : link
RAB yesterday. He really goes off on the owners and lack of free agency signings. I sort of like his owners' profit cap idea. Not sure how you calculate that - do something like 10% of gross revenue. I suppose it would have to be a percentage vs Gross so that low revenue teams have the same burden as high revenue teams.

He has a great write up on the proposed changes to the rules, like a 26 man roster, limiting pitching staffs to 12 men, limiting Sept call ups to a max 28 man roster, 20 sec clock etc.

Also a good write up on Garder being paid over market value but why they did it and why it was not a bad over pay (I agree).
I get the impetus for all these revenue-based rule changes...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 8:43 am : link
but they're not going to happen. The owners aren't going to open their books and the players don't want to commit to a system that could end up costing them money as easily as it could make them money. Remember, a lot of these teams (NYY included) make money through subsidiaries (concessionaires, parking). They're very capable of diverting revenue from a stream included in that "earnings cap" to one that isn't. The system isn't as broken as they suppose it to be, it spreads money reasonably widely. The fact that teams aren't overpaying for the Grandys and the Adam Joneses of the world is lamentable, especially if you're Adam Jones, but as long as they're actually spending the money it's not a problem. What they are spending probably needs to be ratcheted up though. Maybe a higher minimum salary and consequentially higher arb settlements and awards.
Sanchez  
Jay in Toronto : 2/7/2019 9:59 am : link
has shaved his beard and for a guy with maturity questions, showing a nice attitude and backing it up with effort


Post Profile - ( New Window )
Just an idea  
rich in DC : 2/7/2019 10:07 am : link
But if the players really want to break through the luxury tax issues acting as a cap, they should consider using something similar to the NFL for vet players.

While the NFL actually has a cap, they allow teams to sign vets to contracts up to a certain amount, including bonuses, but only count for a smaller fixed amount for the cap.

In MLB, one idea could be that players with 5-8 years experience can sign a deal of up to $3M per year- up to 3 years- but for luxury tax purposes, it would only cost $1.5M per year during the contract length.

For players in the 9-12 year range, they could sign a one year deal for up to $4M, but it would only count for $2M for luxury tax purposes.

That would certainly free up the market for the mid-level guys who always sign late in the off-season.

Another idea is that teams could be allowed to designate one contract as a "team star" or some other name. The contract could be for whatever amount the team is willing to pay, but it will only count under the luxury tax for whatever the tender amount is each season.

This is aimed more at the Harper, Machado, Betts, etc. type of FA. They can sign for as many years and dollars as they want, but the luxury tax total will only be the tender offer amount each year- which is based on the highest salaries each season.

As I have continually noted (and I believe the MLBPA cannot agree to the next CBA without this), there will need to be a salary floor that each team must meet.

To make it more fair to the small market teams, they could be allowed to designate one player as their team star (much like the idea above). The team could designate an arbitration eligible player each season as the team star- and that player would count for the salary floor as if he were getting a tender offer- but the team and player can agree to any amount they like.

What would it look like?

As an example, the Red Sox could designate Betts as the team star and sign him to a 7 year $245M deal (which is really $35M per), but it would only count for luxury tax purposes as whatever the tender offer is that year.

It would reduce cost certainty, as the league does not compute the tender offer until after the end of the season. Teams would know what the tender was going into each off-season, but they cannot know for certain what it will be more than a year out.

Using this year's tender offer ($17.9M), the Red Sox would "save about $17M for luxury tax purposes, which in turn allows them to spend more to fill out the team.

In reverse, let's use the Twins. Let's also assume that the salary floor was set at $140M. Just using the 2020 payroll, they could designate someone like Trevor May as their star- and let's say he gets $2M in arbitration. However, because of the designation, using the tender offer this winter ($17.9M), he would count for that larger amount- which "adds" almost $16M to the calculations for the Twins.

The Twins are one of the teams that would likely struggle at least initially to maintain a $140M payroll, but could probably handle a payroll near $120M. By using this accounting method, the Twins reach the floor without a big financial outlay.

The trick would have to be that a small market team would only be allowed to use it so many times- for example, 3 times in 5 years. This allows them time to find new revenue sources or increase prices accordingly or get a new regional TV deal that would allow them to maintain a certain payroll.

There are a LOT of ways to make the payroll issue work-it just will take creativity. Based on the articles yesterday, MLB and the MLBPA are willing to look at creative on-field ideas- now they just need to look at creative ones for the finances.
For the stat hounds/nerds out there  
Matt in SGS : 2/7/2019 11:40 am : link
the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).

It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.

And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
RE: For the stat hounds/nerds out there  
The_Boss : 2/7/2019 11:42 am : link
In comment 14289853 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).

It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.

And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )


How accurate was this last year?
RE: RE: For the stat hounds/nerds out there  
Matt in SGS : 2/7/2019 11:50 am : link
In comment 14289855 The_Boss said:
Quote:
In comment 14289853 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).

It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.

And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )



How accurate was this last year?

Formatting sucks, but you get the idea. The Red Sox and Orioles were both way off, as were the A's.

Team PECOTA Projected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Angels 80 80 -
Astros 99 103 +4
Athletics 77 97 +20
Blue Jays 78 73 -5
Braves 76 90 +14
Brewers 83 96 +13
Cardinals 84 88 +4
Cubs 89 95 +6
Diamondbacks 86 82 -4
Dodgers 99 92 -7
Giants 84 73 -11
Indians 97 91 -6
Mariners 83 89 -6
Marlins 66 63 -3
Mets 82 77 -5
Nationals 89 82 -7
Orioles 69 47 -22
Padres 73 66 -7
Phillies 78 80 -2
Pirates 78 82 +4
Rangers 77 67 -10
Rays 84 90 +6
Red Sox 87 108 +21
Reds 74 67 -7
Rockies 78 91 +13
Royals 66 58 -8
Tigers 68 64 -4
Twins 81 78 -3
White Sox 73 62 -11
Yankees 96 100 +4
RE: RE: RE: For the stat hounds/nerds out there  
The_Boss : 2/7/2019 12:10 pm : link
In comment 14289868 Matt in SGS said:
Quote:
In comment 14289855 The_Boss said:


Quote:


In comment 14289853 Matt in SGS said:


Quote:


the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).

It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.

And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )



How accurate was this last year?


Formatting sucks, but you get the idea. The Red Sox and Orioles were both way off, as were the A's.

Team PECOTA Projected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Angels 80 80 -
Astros 99 103 +4
Athletics 77 97 +20
Blue Jays 78 73 -5
Braves 76 90 +14
Brewers 83 96 +13
Cardinals 84 88 +4
Cubs 89 95 +6
Diamondbacks 86 82 -4
Dodgers 99 92 -7
Giants 84 73 -11
Indians 97 91 -6
Mariners 83 89 -6
Marlins 66 63 -3
Mets 82 77 -5
Nationals 89 82 -7
Orioles 69 47 -22
Padres 73 66 -7
Phillies 78 80 -2
Pirates 78 82 +4
Rangers 77 67 -10
Rays 84 90 +6
Red Sox 87 108 +21
Reds 74 67 -7
Rockies 78 91 +13
Royals 66 58 -8
Tigers 68 64 -4
Twins 81 78 -3
White Sox 73 62 -11
Yankees 96 100 +4


Thanks. Outside of the major misses, most were within 10 games either way of their prediction. Not bad.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/7/2019 12:52 pm : link
In major Yanks news...

Zach Britton is now Zack Britton.
RE: .  
Matt in SGS : 2/7/2019 1:03 pm : link
In comment 14289988 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
In major Yanks news...

Zach Britton is now Zack Britton.


He said he did it because that's his legal name and what he signed on his contract. And he did it for marketing opportunities ie- Zac-K for strikeouts.
Rich  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 1:05 pm : link
Interesting thoughts all around. As always it is debatable how much of teams' unwillingness to jump the luxury tax is driven by those consequences or by their own bottom line, with the luxury tax a convenient justification to the fans for capping spending.
I usually make a trip down to Pulaski...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 1:46 pm : link
this year could see a pretty stacked team, and that's not even counting what they do in the draft. Osiel Rodriguez, Denny Larrondo, Antonio Gomez and Kevin Alcantara are all good bets to play Appy League ball.
unfortunately, Trenton's series in Richmond is all weeknights  
Greg from LI : 2/7/2019 1:51 pm : link
We're hosting the Eastern League ASG this year, though. I'm going to try to go.
I'll be there at least one of the nights...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 1:57 pm : link
maybe more than one. It's a Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday.
Hmmm...  
Matt in SGS : 2/7/2019 4:14 pm : link
Quote:
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Aaron Boone said the Yankees roster is set for 2019. Hal Steinbrenner just said maybe it isn’t. More to come soon
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