I think that compared to the other elite organizations, the Yankees have the most question marks- but the most depth and flexibility over the next two years.
of pulling a 94 Rangers and sacrificing much of the future to go all in for one title, vs. continuing to build a long term contender.
I like what we've done, but agree with the crowd it's hard to see how we've realistically overtaken the Astros and Red Sox yet.
A lot of things have to go right (better injury luck, return to expecting performance from Sanchez, Bird) for the Yankees to win the series...but we should once again be in the playoff race all season.
I do expect Stanton to be settled into NY now and much more consistent throughout the season, and hopefully Judge is fully healthy and ready to go.
Bullpen = loaded. Rotation = good, but question marks. Seems to be par for the course for the Yanks over the past few seasons.
teams have the same injury concerns as us, especially in regards to their rotations. But this is the same rotation, + Paxton, and + full season of Happ (as opposed to 1/2), that won 100 games last year. What happens if the Sox lose Sale for an extended period, or the Astros and Verlander? I think we're all in the same boat in that regard. Absent of returning Kimbrel, the Sox bullpen has taken a big hit (I have a feeling they are playing the Kimbrel market the same way they did with JDM, and he'll return there).
My questions will be on how the IF defense shakes out, and who plays where. That will be the biggest X-factor for us I think.
Bill2, you have posted a couple times about the Yanks being the organization with the most questions - they could be great or they could fall on their face. I'm wondering if you are greatly influenced by the team not signing Corbin, Machado or Harper - despite them actually being a better team this year at this point compared to last year.
Clearly with Paxton and Happ the SPs are better than last before Spring Training(far better). Yes losing Didi is huge. But signing LeMahieu softens the blow,; Torres should be better; I fully expect Andujar to be as good offensively and certainly cannot be any worse defensively.
The first base situation is a question, yet I think Voit will be close to what we saw. His approach and oppo power are indications of a sound hitting approach. I also never thought Bird was fully healed. I saw him limp several times late in the season.
The bullpen is every bit as good as last year and while we will miss DRob, unlike Mike at RAB, I think Britton is the better reliever. I'm wary of Ottavino, but all writers seen to think he is the real deal. Now if Kahnle is somewhere between 2017 and 2018 they really improve from 2018.
Does anybody really think Sanchez will be as bad offensively? That left shoulder must have pretty bad to have surgery on it.
Also, I thought Boone was mediocre as a manager last year. But he is smart and I expect he will be much better this year - he should close the gap between Cora and himself.
So all in all, by merely improving starting pitching, this 100 win team is better than last year. Also overlooked is Montgomery returning about June, Johnny Lasagna with an additional year and a couple AA and AAA pitchers being closer to MLB.
But then again, I was optimistic about the Horace Clark Yankees in 1968!
and potentially having a top 3 head of the rotation is legit. I mean here's my short list-
Right of the top of my head:
Nationals: Corbin/Strausburgh/Max S.
Mets: Wheeler/Thor/DeGrom
Indians: Kluber/Bauer/Carrasco
Sox: Sale/Price/Porcello
MAYBE the Cardinals: Martinez/Mikalos/Flaherty
MAYBE the Dodgers: Kershaw/Buehler/Ryu
Yankees starting staff - which has been highly debated on whether they are good enough or not...are in better shape than I thought
I would actually disagree a little with Bill on that..
We have question marks, but there are questions for which we have a handful of at least passable answers. LF, the back end of the rotation, 2B/SS; imperfect solutions to be sure, but compare that to the competition.
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
RE: I would actually disagree a little with Bill on that..
We have question marks, but there are questions for which we have a handful of at least passable answers. LF, the back end of the rotation, 2B/SS; imperfect solutions to be sure, but compare that to the competition.
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
Good points. If things don't quite repeat for Sox in their hitting, we'll see if Alex Cora is the new managing genius some claim. (I'm agnostic on that one, though he was impressive).
are weaker than they were last year - at least on paper, and I think the Yanks catch them this year.
The Sox bullpen has really taken a beating this offseason loosing Joe Kelly (who was someone how untouchable in the playoffs) and Kimbrel (who they seemingly has priced himself out of the Boston). They have a lot of question marks and not a lot in the minors - plus there isn't a lot of help in left FA bullpen wise...not sure what their plan is...
The Sox lineup can somehow take absolutely no production from the CF and C positions - collectively they are all plus defenders (so maybe it equals out). Last year they got the ceiling production wise from both JD and Betts (maybe we haven't seen the ceiling yet for Betts - which is a little scary). Benentendi and Devers have room to grow. But 2b is a real question for them - I'll take the Yankees options over them and Mitch Moreland any better than Bird/Voit (I don't think so).
The starters are all a year older. Sale has battled shoulder problems and fatigue in the past, Porcello is solid - but not spectacular, Price is a psychological mess (especially when it comes to the Yanks) and the Sox were willing to bet 67 million dollars on Eovaldi.
Health will be the big wild card for both the Yanks and Sox - along with can everything click. Last year it seemed the Sox just put it all together at the right time, can they do it again?
came out with his overall farm rankings this morning. Anyone care to post just what number he has the Yanks at? I'd guess somewhere in the 15-20 range, middle of the pack.
No. Im only in favor of Harper or Machado if it gets us a #2 SP via a trade of other assets. I don't see the trade possibility until we see 60 days of Frazier or Andujar.
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
In comment 14286698 ManningLobsItBurressAlone said:
Quote:
came out with his overall farm rankings this morning. Anyone care to post just what number he has the Yanks at? I'd guess somewhere in the 15-20 range, middle of the pack.
No. Im only in favor of Harper or Machado if it gets us a #2 SP via a trade of other assets. I don't see the trade possibility until we see 60 days of Frazier or Andujar.
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
You're right, Boston and Houston along with New York are probably the three best teams in baseball right now. If the Yankees get 90 starts out of Tanaka/Severino/Paxton I think they'll be competitive with both of them, but if their rotation isn't healthy and they can't trade for contingency plans they could very easily end up a distant third behind the other two.
you can't assume each teams position overachievers will come down to the norms and their position underachievers will remain underachieving. Just wrong analysis as each team/player makes adjustments to last year's results.
The bars are set way too high and low every offseason.
It will all come down to pitching and defense, imo.
Boston, NY and Houston all have great lineups. The Yanks' infield defense is subpar, especially compared to the Sox and Astros. Nothing to be done about that, I suppose, unless DJ forces his way into the starting lineup.
I agree with Bill that there's no reason to sign Machado or Harper unless it leads to a trade for someone like Kluber...and I assume that if we could have landed someone like that in a deal with Andujar as the centerpiece we'd have already signed MM and made that trade.
RE: It will all come down to pitching and defense, imo.
it isn't. SS was decent, 1B was good, the other positions were average at best. NYY by contrast had above average SS defense, average 1B defense (Voit was terrible, Bird merely average, the fill-ins okay), slightly below average 2B defense, average or a little better C defense (contrary to popular belief), and terrible 3B defense. This year they're losing Didi's glove but gaining LeMahieu's; if they get some improvement from Andujar the gap may not be that big.
Where the Sox set themselves apart is OF defense. Depending on the metric they probably have the best in the sport, and they're undeniably a top 3 or so. Yankees have good OF defense, but Boston is on another level.
Agreed that the Sox OF is where their defensive strength lies.
what do you think Boone rolls out there as the starting lineup against the O's assuming the Orioles start RH Dylan Bundy against the Yankees. Let's just assume that they suffer no casualties during spring training and no one surprises and makes the roster (ie Frazier) as a starter. I'm curious what people think is, prior to spring training, who will be where. Obviously, a bunch can change between now and then - but I'm curious to hear what people think will happen.
If that trade goes through and it works ...its a sneaky clever trade.
The Yankees insurance payments on Ellsbury stop if he can play this year. Cueto will be covered by insurance. But next year, he slots into CC Sabathia's slot. And as a guy two years removed from an All Star year...its a lottery ticket for no less and/or no more than they were on the hook for on Ellsbury for the next three years anyway.
its a gamble, but ( if true) the thinking behind it reminds me of the Fangraphs article that Dune linked last week about a minors stacked with very high ceiling but low floor gambles on greatness. The kind you take when you have a core at the MLB level.
and let others correct what is wrong with the analysis:
The Yankees have to either:
1) Pay Ellsbury and no coverage on insurance
2) Release him
3) Trade him for a lottery ticket ( because at this point that's what he is)
So they at least get no additional declinations to the bottom line payments this year because Cueto is covered by insurance this year.
Next year they pay him but Cc and Gardner come off the books and they have a recent All Star Pitcher to add ( if he works out and rebounds which is a reasonable expectation year two after TJ surgery)
Or they put him on waivers if he does not work out and are not further damaged monetarily than the old Ellsbury contract would have cost them.
So possibly something from a sunk cost from the past.
I dunno, its either that or some minor league lottery tickets. This proposed lottery ticket likely has a faster and higher payoff than some low minors prospects.
No. Im only in favor of Harper or Machado if it gets us a #2 SP via a trade of other assets. I don't see the trade possibility until we see 60 days of Frazier or Andujar.
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
No doubt Astros and Red Sox with maybe the Nationals and Dodgers are very good teams. But the Yanks won 100 games with a questionable SP rotation, Sanchez batting .186 and out a few weeks, Judge out 7 weeks, Stanton new to the team and the quagmire at first base.
So the Yanks were beat up pretty hard injury wise and still 100 games.
You are right to be cautious, but I think realistically they can win 95-100 wins again and maybe improve with a healthy season.
My comments about caution are about this year and next ( in three years the minors will start to feed the MLB team again) in playoff games where the other elite teams have few weaknesses as well.
I dont remember a time when there were 6 ( LA, Atlanta, Nationals, Sox, Astros and us) elite teams ( plus maybe Cleveland and Rays and Brewers and Cubs more than capable of being tough in a short series) that were very well run and very well balanced teams.
Look back at the late 1990's. We were more clearly better imo than the Sox, Atlanta and Cleveland for most of that time. Yes the DBacks and the Padres snuck in for a year here or there but that imo was an aggressive Fo FA phenomenon more than an elite well run dynastic approach ( and the Sox may fall off soon but I doubt it).
One other thought: I think the Rays and Jays got better. We may race the Soc again but those teams maybe tougher on everyone so 95 and more solid than last year is possible.
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
No doubt. Baseball is a grind every year. The Sox, Astros and yes Cleveland aren't going anywhere. One or two other teams will step up. As good as any team is, baseball has a way of evening things out.
You are right to be skeptical.
in a season where 6 teams won 95 or more games and 8 teams lost more than 95 games. I'm not sure the "100" wins meant what it used to with so many teams trying to lose. But last year is over so on to 2019. Last year I couldn't wait for the season to start this year not so much.
nothing earth-shaking but nice to read about on a February night. RAB - ( New Window )
Thanks. Followed up on that article. Looks like the Yanks are pathbreakers. Hiring 'new generation' hitting guru Dillon Lawson to the system-wide position, they have also created a similar position for pitching. Desi Druchel has much less experience but apparently a very modern perspective and impressive success at collegiate level.
My problem with that trade is the way they approach big-money deals. Boston has eaten money in the past. The Yankees have thrown in a few million to trade players, usually for a return, and released A-Rod a year early, but by and large they simply will not eat money. That means they're likely to carry Cueto, at least until the final year of his contract, regardless of performance. It just seems like they're trading mild relief (and financial relief, distinct from luxury tax relief they could plow back into the team) for an extra year of salary that could be better used putting finishing touches on what we all expect to be a consistently competitive team.
Bill, that's overly optimistic. I could see 161-1, then 11-2.
Machado is begging the Yankees to give him a one-year deal (at least that's what I'm reading into the report). Would be an interesting option with some big contracts coming off the books next year...
Machado on a one-year deal might make more sense than Harper for the player, but not much. Machado might believe that he can pair the offensive production of his first half in a hitter-friendly park with the defensive improvements of his LAD time with an analytics-driven defensive team, and quiet some of the hustle rep. But still, that's a lot of risk when he may be leaving $200 mil on the table, and he goes into next offseason with a comparable 3B (Arenado) and a lesser but still good and much cheaper SS (Gregorius) on the market.
scenario would be Kyrie leaving Boston in the off-season; Boston still trades Tatum for Anthony Davis thinking they can convince him to stay and then he leaves after one season. All the love fest the media has had over how amazing Danny Ainge is and he would have absolutely nothing to show for it.
as a fit for NY and I feel like the Yankees did their due diligence in preparing for life w/o Didi until he can come back.
Ultimately, I still feel like Tulo won't be able to play everyday at SS and Torres plays SS a lot. LeMahieu plays 2B and Andujar plays 3B and they pray that defensively it doesn't cost them the division.
I also think that the Hicks/Judge/Frazier is the starting OF come playoff time.
will consider a short term deal, especially one year, the Yankees should jump on that.
I think the players would sign a 1 year 30+ mill deal in a second - it's the agents that don't want it. They don't want to set that landmark and then have it be something teams keep vying for each offseason and not be willing to offer any term.
will consider a short term deal, especially one year, the Yankees should jump on that.
I think the players would sign a 1 year 30+ mill deal in a second - it's the agents that don't want it. They don't want to set that landmark and then have it be something teams keep vying for each offseason and not be willing to offer any term.
Odds are the union wouldn't want it. It seems a strike is essentially a reality within the next few years.
Yeah, I think individual players would take it - but the union and agents aren't going to want to stick a flag there.
We have Manny Machado and Bryce Harper still sitting in the FA pool on February 5th with pitchers and catchers about to report next week. Something is obviously very wrong with the landscape here and I agree a strike is probably on the horizon.
[Harper has] got more speed than me, man, Judge said. Wherever he wants to play, well make it work.
The Yankees have been disinterested in the Harper sweepstakes, as the six-time All-Star strangely is still a free agent on Feb. 5. The Phillies reportedly are the front-runners for his services, with the Nationals, White Sox and Padres still involved.
Any time you can add an MVP to a team, its going to make it better, said Judge, whos coming off a .278/.392/.528 All-Star season. So, it just all depends on where he wants to go. [Manny] Machado, Bryce Harper, any of them.
look at that picture in the link that arc sent.
Judge is an enormous human being.
One of the funny moments in the early season Yankees vs. Red Sox brawl was when Judge and Stanton both got into the scrum and literally pushed pretty much the entire mob of people towards the Boston dugout like an offensive line.
From his point of view that makes absolutely no sense. A lot can happen in a year. He could get hurt, he could have a bad year and in the case of the Yankees he could get on the wrong side of the media or fans. Even under the best of circumstances he's facing a tougher market next year than this. Both he and Harper, or rather their agents badly misjudged the market, but that's water under the bridge. The only reasonable thing Machado can do now is take the best deal he can find, whether it be for $175 for $200 mil and get an opt out after a couple of years.
From his point of view that makes absolutely no sense. A lot can happen in a year. He could get hurt, he could have a bad year and in the case of the Yankees he could get on the wrong side of the media or fans. Even under the best of circumstances he's facing a tougher market next year than this. Both he and Harper, or rather their agents badly misjudged the market, but that's water under the bridge. The only reasonable thing Machado can do now is take the best deal he can find, whether it be for $175 for $200 mil and get an opt out after a couple of years.
Simple - he's trying to maximize his long-term value.
The landscape sucks for the players right now. Machado could lock himself into some sort of 7-8 year deal only for the players to wind up getting better deals halfway through and then be SOL because he can't get free until he's in his early/mid-30's.
It's entirely feasible that he could grab a higher one year value in 2019 than he'd get on average through a longer-term, and then, on top of that, wind up with a more lucrative long-term deal either next year or the year after.
There's certainly logic behind it. Just taking whatever is out there now might wind up looking really crappy in hindsight.
It's also possible that the real stumbling block isn't $ or years...
Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.
I think the Yankees were too.
Machado is younger and better, why would they opt for Arenado? Are they trying to become Rockies East or did Colorado become the new Kansas City pipeline?
BA projects the top 2019 IFA prospect, Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez, will receive a $5 mil bonus. He has been linked to the Yankees, and since the rest of the top 10 are not they may be planning to put their eggs in that basket. Tooled up with now-power and hitting ability
BA projects the top 2019 IFA prospect, Dominican OF Jasson Dominguez, will receive a $5 mil bonus. He has been linked to the Yankees, and since the rest of the top 10 are not they may be planning to put their eggs in that basket. Tooled up with now-power and hitting ability
If the Yankee scouts see elite skills, I have no issue in overpaying. Elite talent comes to those that are terrible, hence high draft picks, or those that overpay.
but the consensus top IFA prospects usually develop significant prospect value. They won't all be Wander Franco, Vlad Jr. or Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres, but outside of Dermis Garcia and Kevin Maitan the majority have become at minimum strong trade chips.
but the consensus top IFA prospects usually develop significant prospect value. They won't all be Wander Franco, Vlad Jr. or Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres, but outside of Dermis Garcia and Kevin Maitan the majority have become at minimum strong trade chips.
If you don't mind posting it, what's your twitter handle?
RAB yesterday. He really goes off on the owners and lack of free agency signings. I sort of like his owners' profit cap idea. Not sure how you calculate that - do something like 10% of gross revenue. I suppose it would have to be a percentage vs Gross so that low revenue teams have the same burden as high revenue teams.
He has a great write up on the proposed changes to the rules, like a 26 man roster, limiting pitching staffs to 12 men, limiting Sept call ups to a max 28 man roster, 20 sec clock etc.
Also a good write up on Garder being paid over market value but why they did it and why it was not a bad over pay (I agree).
I get the impetus for all these revenue-based rule changes...
but they're not going to happen. The owners aren't going to open their books and the players don't want to commit to a system that could end up costing them money as easily as it could make them money. Remember, a lot of these teams (NYY included) make money through subsidiaries (concessionaires, parking). They're very capable of diverting revenue from a stream included in that "earnings cap" to one that isn't. The system isn't as broken as they suppose it to be, it spreads money reasonably widely. The fact that teams aren't overpaying for the Grandys and the Adam Joneses of the world is lamentable, especially if you're Adam Jones, but as long as they're actually spending the money it's not a problem. What they are spending probably needs to be ratcheted up though. Maybe a higher minimum salary and consequentially higher arb settlements and awards.
But if the players really want to break through the luxury tax issues acting as a cap, they should consider using something similar to the NFL for vet players.
While the NFL actually has a cap, they allow teams to sign vets to contracts up to a certain amount, including bonuses, but only count for a smaller fixed amount for the cap.
In MLB, one idea could be that players with 5-8 years experience can sign a deal of up to $3M per year- up to 3 years- but for luxury tax purposes, it would only cost $1.5M per year during the contract length.
For players in the 9-12 year range, they could sign a one year deal for up to $4M, but it would only count for $2M for luxury tax purposes.
That would certainly free up the market for the mid-level guys who always sign late in the off-season.
Another idea is that teams could be allowed to designate one contract as a "team star" or some other name. The contract could be for whatever amount the team is willing to pay, but it will only count under the luxury tax for whatever the tender amount is each season.
This is aimed more at the Harper, Machado, Betts, etc. type of FA. They can sign for as many years and dollars as they want, but the luxury tax total will only be the tender offer amount each year- which is based on the highest salaries each season.
As I have continually noted (and I believe the MLBPA cannot agree to the next CBA without this), there will need to be a salary floor that each team must meet.
To make it more fair to the small market teams, they could be allowed to designate one player as their team star (much like the idea above). The team could designate an arbitration eligible player each season as the team star- and that player would count for the salary floor as if he were getting a tender offer- but the team and player can agree to any amount they like.
What would it look like?
As an example, the Red Sox could designate Betts as the team star and sign him to a 7 year $245M deal (which is really $35M per), but it would only count for luxury tax purposes as whatever the tender offer is that year.
It would reduce cost certainty, as the league does not compute the tender offer until after the end of the season. Teams would know what the tender was going into each off-season, but they cannot know for certain what it will be more than a year out.
Using this year's tender offer ($17.9M), the Red Sox would "save about $17M for luxury tax purposes, which in turn allows them to spend more to fill out the team.
In reverse, let's use the Twins. Let's also assume that the salary floor was set at $140M. Just using the 2020 payroll, they could designate someone like Trevor May as their star- and let's say he gets $2M in arbitration. However, because of the designation, using the tender offer this winter ($17.9M), he would count for that larger amount- which "adds" almost $16M to the calculations for the Twins.
The Twins are one of the teams that would likely struggle at least initially to maintain a $140M payroll, but could probably handle a payroll near $120M. By using this accounting method, the Twins reach the floor without a big financial outlay.
The trick would have to be that a small market team would only be allowed to use it so many times- for example, 3 times in 5 years. This allows them time to find new revenue sources or increase prices accordingly or get a new regional TV deal that would allow them to maintain a certain payroll.
There are a LOT of ways to make the payroll issue work-it just will take creativity. Based on the articles yesterday, MLB and the MLBPA are willing to look at creative on-field ideas- now they just need to look at creative ones for the finances.
the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
How accurate was this last year?
Formatting sucks, but you get the idea. The Red Sox and Orioles were both way off, as were the A's.
the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
How accurate was this last year?
Formatting sucks, but you get the idea. The Red Sox and Orioles were both way off, as were the A's.
He said he did it because that's his legal name and what he signed on his contract. And he did it for marketing opportunities ie- Zac-K for strikeouts.
Interesting thoughts all around. As always it is debatable how much of teams' unwillingness to jump the luxury tax is driven by those consequences or by their own bottom line, with the luxury tax a convenient justification to the fans for capping spending.
this year could see a pretty stacked team, and that's not even counting what they do in the draft. Osiel Rodriguez, Denny Larrondo, Antonio Gomez and Kevin Alcantara are all good bets to play Appy League ball.
unfortunately, Trenton's series in Richmond is all weeknights
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Aaron Boone said the Yankees roster is set for 2019. Hal Steinbrenner just said maybe it isnt. More to come soon
I like what we've done, but agree with the crowd it's hard to see how we've realistically overtaken the Astros and Red Sox yet.
A lot of things have to go right (better injury luck, return to expecting performance from Sanchez, Bird) for the Yankees to win the series...but we should once again be in the playoff race all season.
I do expect Stanton to be settled into NY now and much more consistent throughout the season, and hopefully Judge is fully healthy and ready to go.
Bullpen = loaded. Rotation = good, but question marks. Seems to be par for the course for the Yanks over the past few seasons.
My questions will be on how the IF defense shakes out, and who plays where. That will be the biggest X-factor for us I think.
Thank heavens - pitchers and catchers next week!
Bill2, you have posted a couple times about the Yanks being the organization with the most questions - they could be great or they could fall on their face. I'm wondering if you are greatly influenced by the team not signing Corbin, Machado or Harper - despite them actually being a better team this year at this point compared to last year.
Clearly with Paxton and Happ the SPs are better than last before Spring Training(far better). Yes losing Didi is huge. But signing LeMahieu softens the blow,; Torres should be better; I fully expect Andujar to be as good offensively and certainly cannot be any worse defensively.
The first base situation is a question, yet I think Voit will be close to what we saw. His approach and oppo power are indications of a sound hitting approach. I also never thought Bird was fully healed. I saw him limp several times late in the season.
The bullpen is every bit as good as last year and while we will miss DRob, unlike Mike at RAB, I think Britton is the better reliever. I'm wary of Ottavino, but all writers seen to think he is the real deal. Now if Kahnle is somewhere between 2017 and 2018 they really improve from 2018.
Does anybody really think Sanchez will be as bad offensively? That left shoulder must have pretty bad to have surgery on it.
Also, I thought Boone was mediocre as a manager last year. But he is smart and I expect he will be much better this year - he should close the gap between Cora and himself.
So all in all, by merely improving starting pitching, this 100 win team is better than last year. Also overlooked is Montgomery returning about June, Johnny Lasagna with an additional year and a couple AA and AAA pitchers being closer to MLB.
But then again, I was optimistic about the Horace Clark Yankees in 1968!
Then March Madness and post combine mock drafts.
Right of the top of my head:
Nationals: Corbin/Strausburgh/Max S.
Mets: Wheeler/Thor/DeGrom
Indians: Kluber/Bauer/Carrasco
Sox: Sale/Price/Porcello
MAYBE the Cardinals: Martinez/Mikalos/Flaherty
MAYBE the Dodgers: Kershaw/Buehler/Ryu
Yankees starting staff - which has been highly debated on whether they are good enough or not...are in better shape than I thought
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
Good points. If things don't quite repeat for Sox in their hitting, we'll see if Alex Cora is the new managing genius some claim. (I'm agnostic on that one, though he was impressive).
The Sox bullpen has really taken a beating this offseason loosing Joe Kelly (who was someone how untouchable in the playoffs) and Kimbrel (who they seemingly has priced himself out of the Boston). They have a lot of question marks and not a lot in the minors - plus there isn't a lot of help in left FA bullpen wise...not sure what their plan is...
The Sox lineup can somehow take absolutely no production from the CF and C positions - collectively they are all plus defenders (so maybe it equals out). Last year they got the ceiling production wise from both JD and Betts (maybe we haven't seen the ceiling yet for Betts - which is a little scary). Benentendi and Devers have room to grow. But 2b is a real question for them - I'll take the Yankees options over them and Mitch Moreland any better than Bird/Voit (I don't think so).
The starters are all a year older. Sale has battled shoulder problems and fatigue in the past, Porcello is solid - but not spectacular, Price is a psychological mess (especially when it comes to the Yanks) and the Sox were willing to bet 67 million dollars on Eovaldi.
Health will be the big wild card for both the Yanks and Sox - along with can everything click. Last year it seemed the Sox just put it all together at the right time, can they do it again?
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
SD #1, MYM #14, NYY #19, BOS #24
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
You're right, Boston and Houston along with New York are probably the three best teams in baseball right now. If the Yankees get 90 starts out of Tanaka/Severino/Paxton I think they'll be competitive with both of them, but if their rotation isn't healthy and they can't trade for contingency plans they could very easily end up a distant third behind the other two.
The bars are set way too high and low every offseason.
I agree with Bill that there's no reason to sign Machado or Harper unless it leads to a trade for someone like Kluber...and I assume that if we could have landed someone like that in a deal with Andujar as the centerpiece we'd have already signed MM and made that trade.
This would be the same Sawx infield that frequently has Eduardo Scissorhands and Devers in it?
Where the Sox set themselves apart is OF defense. Depending on the metric they probably have the best in the sport, and they're undeniably a top 3 or so. Yankees have good OF defense, but Boston is on another level.
The Yankees insurance payments on Ellsbury stop if he can play this year. Cueto will be covered by insurance. But next year, he slots into CC Sabathia's slot. And as a guy two years removed from an All Star year...its a lottery ticket for no less and/or no more than they were on the hook for on Ellsbury for the next three years anyway.
its a gamble, but ( if true) the thinking behind it reminds me of the Fangraphs article that Dune linked last week about a minors stacked with very high ceiling but low floor gambles on greatness. The kind you take when you have a core at the MLB level.
Its a fun franchise to watch
The Yankees have to either:
1) Pay Ellsbury and no coverage on insurance
2) Release him
3) Trade him for a lottery ticket ( because at this point that's what he is)
So they at least get no additional declinations to the bottom line payments this year because Cueto is covered by insurance this year.
Next year they pay him but Cc and Gardner come off the books and they have a recent All Star Pitcher to add ( if he works out and rebounds which is a reasonable expectation year two after TJ surgery)
Or they put him on waivers if he does not work out and are not further damaged monetarily than the old Ellsbury contract would have cost them.
So possibly something from a sunk cost from the past.
I dunno, its either that or some minor league lottery tickets. This proposed lottery ticket likely has a faster and higher payoff than some low minors prospects.
Interesting
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
No doubt Astros and Red Sox with maybe the Nationals and Dodgers are very good teams. But the Yanks won 100 games with a questionable SP rotation, Sanchez batting .186 and out a few weeks, Judge out 7 weeks, Stanton new to the team and the quagmire at first base.
So the Yanks were beat up pretty hard injury wise and still 100 games.
You are right to be cautious, but I think realistically they can win 95-100 wins again and maybe improve with a healthy season.
My comments about caution are about this year and next ( in three years the minors will start to feed the MLB team again) in playoff games where the other elite teams have few weaknesses as well.
I dont remember a time when there were 6 ( LA, Atlanta, Nationals, Sox, Astros and us) elite teams ( plus maybe Cleveland and Rays and Brewers and Cubs more than capable of being tough in a short series) that were very well run and very well balanced teams.
Look back at the late 1990's. We were more clearly better imo than the Sox, Atlanta and Cleveland for most of that time. Yes the DBacks and the Padres snuck in for a year here or there but that imo was an aggressive Fo FA phenomenon more than an elite well run dynastic approach ( and the Sox may fall off soon but I doubt it).
One other thought: I think the Rays and Jays got better. We may race the Soc again but those teams maybe tougher on everyone so 95 and more solid than last year is possible.
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
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I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
No doubt. Baseball is a grind every year. The Sox, Astros and yes Cleveland aren't going anywhere. One or two other teams will step up. As good as any team is, baseball has a way of evening things out.
You are right to be skeptical.
Then 11-0
We deserve it !
After all, we saw Horace Clarke play...and he was one of the better Yankee players of that era
A Confederation of Hoaraces
My nominee:
Horace Guy "Dooley" Womack
Thanks. Followed up on that article. Looks like the Yanks are pathbreakers. Hiring 'new generation' hitting guru Dillon Lawson to the system-wide position, they have also created a similar position for pitching. Desi Druchel has much less experience but apparently a very modern perspective and impressive success at collegiate level.
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Hey wait. I was in little league and played IF. Horace ws my guy!
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Ultimately, I still feel like Tulo won't be able to play everyday at SS and Torres plays SS a lot. LeMahieu plays 2B and Andujar plays 3B and they pray that defensively it doesn't cost them the division.
I also think that the Hicks/Judge/Frazier is the starting OF come playoff time.
Not sure when minor-leaguers report, but Siegler was featured in NY Post article.
Early start to Spring Training - ( New Window )
Not sure when minor-leaguers report, but Siegler was featured in NY Post article. Early start to Spring Training - ( New Window )
Would have been nice to know if Sanchez was still looking like a lazy sloth or if he shed some weight during the offseason.
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Voit, Bird, Paxton, Happ, Severino, Torres and Sanchez.
Not sure when minor-leaguers report, but Siegler was featured in NY Post article. Early start to Spring Training - ( New Window )
Would have been nice to know if Sanchez was still looking like a lazy sloth or if he shed some weight during the offseason.
The article mentioned that he is sporting a beard, since facial hair policy not in effect till spring training starts officially.
I think the players would sign a 1 year 30+ mill deal in a second - it's the agents that don't want it. They don't want to set that landmark and then have it be something teams keep vying for each offseason and not be willing to offer any term.
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will consider a short term deal, especially one year, the Yankees should jump on that.
I think the players would sign a 1 year 30+ mill deal in a second - it's the agents that don't want it. They don't want to set that landmark and then have it be something teams keep vying for each offseason and not be willing to offer any term.
Odds are the union wouldn't want it. It seems a strike is essentially a reality within the next few years.
We have Manny Machado and Bryce Harper still sitting in the FA pool on February 5th with pitchers and catchers about to report next week. Something is obviously very wrong with the landscape here and I agree a strike is probably on the horizon.
hey arc - where ya seeing this?
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Judge making a little mini pitch for Harper... saying he'd switch positions and do whatever it took. Love that guy.
hey arc - where ya seeing this?
Ask and ye shall receive, my friend.
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The Yankees have been disinterested in the Harper sweepstakes, as the six-time All-Star strangely is still a free agent on Feb. 5. The Phillies reportedly are the front-runners for his services, with the Nationals, White Sox and Padres still involved.
Any time you can add an MVP to a team, its going to make it better, said Judge, whos coming off a .278/.392/.528 All-Star season. So, it just all depends on where he wants to go. [Manny] Machado, Bryce Harper, any of them.
Judge is an enormous human being.
One of my favorite all-time Yankees. Jeter knows.
Judge is an enormous human being.
One of the funny moments in the early season Yankees vs. Red Sox brawl was when Judge and Stanton both got into the scrum and literally pushed pretty much the entire mob of people towards the Boston dugout like an offensive line.
He'd still be a very rich man and would make the 10 yr $300MM deal for Harper much easier to take.
C'mon Judge, put your money where your mouth is.
J/K, of course.
Simple - he's trying to maximize his long-term value.
The landscape sucks for the players right now. Machado could lock himself into some sort of 7-8 year deal only for the players to wind up getting better deals halfway through and then be SOL because he can't get free until he's in his early/mid-30's.
It's entirely feasible that he could grab a higher one year value in 2019 than he'd get on average through a longer-term, and then, on top of that, wind up with a more lucrative long-term deal either next year or the year after.
There's certainly logic behind it. Just taking whatever is out there now might wind up looking really crappy in hindsight.
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Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.
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- Link - ( New Window )
Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.
I think the Yankees were too.
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Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.
River Ave. Blues
@RiverAveBlues
Dont worry,
@Yankees
are just gonna wait out Vlad Jrs FA to spend big
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In comment 14288183 The_Boss said:
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- Link - ( New Window )
Yikes. I was having visions of his coming to the Yanks.
I think the Yankees were too.
Machado is younger and better, why would they opt for Arenado? Are they trying to become Rockies East or did Colorado become the new Kansas City pipeline?
If the Yankee scouts see elite skills, I have no issue in overpaying. Elite talent comes to those that are terrible, hence high draft picks, or those that overpay.
If you don't mind posting it, what's your twitter handle?
Yea, but he doesn't list himself as a Giants fan!!!!!!
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a great follow on twitter.
Yea, but he doesn't list himself as a Giants fan!!!!!!
BURN THE WITCH
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Is there a Harper/Yankee rumor I may have missed?
He has a great write up on the proposed changes to the rules, like a 26 man roster, limiting pitching staffs to 12 men, limiting Sept call ups to a max 28 man roster, 20 sec clock etc.
Also a good write up on Garder being paid over market value but why they did it and why it was not a bad over pay (I agree).
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While the NFL actually has a cap, they allow teams to sign vets to contracts up to a certain amount, including bonuses, but only count for a smaller fixed amount for the cap.
In MLB, one idea could be that players with 5-8 years experience can sign a deal of up to $3M per year- up to 3 years- but for luxury tax purposes, it would only cost $1.5M per year during the contract length.
For players in the 9-12 year range, they could sign a one year deal for up to $4M, but it would only count for $2M for luxury tax purposes.
That would certainly free up the market for the mid-level guys who always sign late in the off-season.
Another idea is that teams could be allowed to designate one contract as a "team star" or some other name. The contract could be for whatever amount the team is willing to pay, but it will only count under the luxury tax for whatever the tender amount is each season.
This is aimed more at the Harper, Machado, Betts, etc. type of FA. They can sign for as many years and dollars as they want, but the luxury tax total will only be the tender offer amount each year- which is based on the highest salaries each season.
As I have continually noted (and I believe the MLBPA cannot agree to the next CBA without this), there will need to be a salary floor that each team must meet.
To make it more fair to the small market teams, they could be allowed to designate one player as their team star (much like the idea above). The team could designate an arbitration eligible player each season as the team star- and that player would count for the salary floor as if he were getting a tender offer- but the team and player can agree to any amount they like.
What would it look like?
As an example, the Red Sox could designate Betts as the team star and sign him to a 7 year $245M deal (which is really $35M per), but it would only count for luxury tax purposes as whatever the tender offer is that year.
It would reduce cost certainty, as the league does not compute the tender offer until after the end of the season. Teams would know what the tender was going into each off-season, but they cannot know for certain what it will be more than a year out.
Using this year's tender offer ($17.9M), the Red Sox would "save about $17M for luxury tax purposes, which in turn allows them to spend more to fill out the team.
In reverse, let's use the Twins. Let's also assume that the salary floor was set at $140M. Just using the 2020 payroll, they could designate someone like Trevor May as their star- and let's say he gets $2M in arbitration. However, because of the designation, using the tender offer this winter ($17.9M), he would count for that larger amount- which "adds" almost $16M to the calculations for the Twins.
The Twins are one of the teams that would likely struggle at least initially to maintain a $140M payroll, but could probably handle a payroll near $120M. By using this accounting method, the Twins reach the floor without a big financial outlay.
The trick would have to be that a small market team would only be allowed to use it so many times- for example, 3 times in 5 years. This allows them time to find new revenue sources or increase prices accordingly or get a new regional TV deal that would allow them to maintain a certain payroll.
There are a LOT of ways to make the payroll issue work-it just will take creativity. Based on the articles yesterday, MLB and the MLBPA are willing to look at creative on-field ideas- now they just need to look at creative ones for the finances.
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
How accurate was this last year?
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the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
How accurate was this last year?
Formatting sucks, but you get the idea. The Red Sox and Orioles were both way off, as were the A's.
Team PECOTA Projected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Angels 80 80 -
Astros 99 103 +4
Athletics 77 97 +20
Blue Jays 78 73 -5
Braves 76 90 +14
Brewers 83 96 +13
Cardinals 84 88 +4
Cubs 89 95 +6
Diamondbacks 86 82 -4
Dodgers 99 92 -7
Giants 84 73 -11
Indians 97 91 -6
Mariners 83 89 -6
Marlins 66 63 -3
Mets 82 77 -5
Nationals 89 82 -7
Orioles 69 47 -22
Padres 73 66 -7
Phillies 78 80 -2
Pirates 78 82 +4
Rangers 77 67 -10
Rays 84 90 +6
Red Sox 87 108 +21
Reds 74 67 -7
Rockies 78 91 +13
Royals 66 58 -8
Tigers 68 64 -4
Twins 81 78 -3
White Sox 73 62 -11
Yankees 96 100 +4
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In comment 14289853 Matt in SGS said:
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the PECODA rankings are out (which still cracks me up that they named it after journeyman Bill Pecoda).
It has the Yankees beating Boston for the division with a decent margin (96 wins vs. 90). Yankees tied with the Indians with 96 wins and the Astros best team in AL with 99 wins.
And it has the Mets and Braves both at 89 wins atop the NL East. Dodgers best in NL with 95 wins. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ - ( New Window )
How accurate was this last year?
Formatting sucks, but you get the idea. The Red Sox and Orioles were both way off, as were the A's.
Team PECOTA Projected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Angels 80 80 -
Astros 99 103 +4
Athletics 77 97 +20
Blue Jays 78 73 -5
Braves 76 90 +14
Brewers 83 96 +13
Cardinals 84 88 +4
Cubs 89 95 +6
Diamondbacks 86 82 -4
Dodgers 99 92 -7
Giants 84 73 -11
Indians 97 91 -6
Mariners 83 89 -6
Marlins 66 63 -3
Mets 82 77 -5
Nationals 89 82 -7
Orioles 69 47 -22
Padres 73 66 -7
Phillies 78 80 -2
Pirates 78 82 +4
Rangers 77 67 -10
Rays 84 90 +6
Red Sox 87 108 +21
Reds 74 67 -7
Rockies 78 91 +13
Royals 66 58 -8
Tigers 68 64 -4
Twins 81 78 -3
White Sox 73 62 -11
Yankees 96 100 +4
Thanks. Outside of the major misses, most were within 10 games either way of their prediction. Not bad.
Zach Britton is now Zack Britton.
Zach Britton is now Zack Britton.
He said he did it because that's his legal name and what he signed on his contract. And he did it for marketing opportunities ie- Zac-K for strikeouts.
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Aaron Boone said the Yankees roster is set for 2019. Hal Steinbrenner just said maybe it isnt. More to come soon