I think that compared to the other elite organizations, the Yankees have the most question marks- but the most depth and flexibility over the next two years.
of pulling a 94 Rangers and sacrificing much of the future to go all in for one title, vs. continuing to build a long term contender.
I like what we've done, but agree with the crowd it's hard to see how we've realistically overtaken the Astros and Red Sox yet.
A lot of things have to go right (better injury luck, return to expecting performance from Sanchez, Bird) for the Yankees to win the series...but we should once again be in the playoff race all season.
I do expect Stanton to be settled into NY now and much more consistent throughout the season, and hopefully Judge is fully healthy and ready to go.
Bullpen = loaded. Rotation = good, but question marks. Seems to be par for the course for the Yanks over the past few seasons.
teams have the same injury concerns as us, especially in regards to their rotations. But this is the same rotation, + Paxton, and + full season of Happ (as opposed to 1/2), that won 100 games last year. What happens if the Sox lose Sale for an extended period, or the Astros and Verlander? I think we're all in the same boat in that regard. Absent of returning Kimbrel, the Sox bullpen has taken a big hit (I have a feeling they are playing the Kimbrel market the same way they did with JDM, and he'll return there).
My questions will be on how the IF defense shakes out, and who plays where. That will be the biggest X-factor for us I think.
Bill2, you have posted a couple times about the Yanks being the organization with the most questions - they could be great or they could fall on their face. I'm wondering if you are greatly influenced by the team not signing Corbin, Machado or Harper - despite them actually being a better team this year at this point compared to last year.
Clearly with Paxton and Happ the SPs are better than last before Spring Training(far better). Yes losing Didi is huge. But signing LeMahieu softens the blow,; Torres should be better; I fully expect Andujar to be as good offensively and certainly cannot be any worse defensively.
The first base situation is a question, yet I think Voit will be close to what we saw. His approach and oppo power are indications of a sound hitting approach. I also never thought Bird was fully healed. I saw him limp several times late in the season.
The bullpen is every bit as good as last year and while we will miss DRob, unlike Mike at RAB, I think Britton is the better reliever. I'm wary of Ottavino, but all writers seen to think he is the real deal. Now if Kahnle is somewhere between 2017 and 2018 they really improve from 2018.
Does anybody really think Sanchez will be as bad offensively? That left shoulder must have pretty bad to have surgery on it.
Also, I thought Boone was mediocre as a manager last year. But he is smart and I expect he will be much better this year - he should close the gap between Cora and himself.
So all in all, by merely improving starting pitching, this 100 win team is better than last year. Also overlooked is Montgomery returning about June, Johnny Lasagna with an additional year and a couple AA and AAA pitchers being closer to MLB.
But then again, I was optimistic about the Horace Clark Yankees in 1968!
and potentially having a top 3 head of the rotation is legit. I mean here's my short list-
Right of the top of my head:
Nationals: Corbin/Strausburgh/Max S.
Mets: Wheeler/Thor/DeGrom
Indians: Kluber/Bauer/Carrasco
Sox: Sale/Price/Porcello
MAYBE the Cardinals: Martinez/Mikalos/Flaherty
MAYBE the Dodgers: Kershaw/Buehler/Ryu
Yankees starting staff - which has been highly debated on whether they are good enough or not...are in better shape than I thought
I would actually disagree a little with Bill on that.. Â
We have question marks, but there are questions for which we have a handful of at least passable answers. LF, the back end of the rotation, 2B/SS; imperfect solutions to be sure, but compare that to the competition.
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
RE: I would actually disagree a little with Bill on that.. Â
We have question marks, but there are questions for which we have a handful of at least passable answers. LF, the back end of the rotation, 2B/SS; imperfect solutions to be sure, but compare that to the competition.
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
Good points. If things don't quite repeat for Sox in their hitting, we'll see if Alex Cora is the new managing genius some claim. (I'm agnostic on that one, though he was impressive).
are weaker than they were last year - at least on paper, and I think the Yanks catch them this year.
The Sox bullpen has really taken a beating this offseason loosing Joe Kelly (who was someone how untouchable in the playoffs) and Kimbrel (who they seemingly has priced himself out of the Boston). They have a lot of question marks and not a lot in the minors - plus there isn't a lot of help in left FA bullpen wise...not sure what their plan is...
The Sox lineup can somehow take absolutely no production from the CF and C positions - collectively they are all plus defenders (so maybe it equals out). Last year they got the ceiling production wise from both JD and Betts (maybe we haven't seen the ceiling yet for Betts - which is a little scary). Benentendi and Devers have room to grow. But 2b is a real question for them - I'll take the Yankees options over them and Mitch Moreland any better than Bird/Voit (I don't think so).
The starters are all a year older. Sale has battled shoulder problems and fatigue in the past, Porcello is solid - but not spectacular, Price is a psychological mess (especially when it comes to the Yanks) and the Sox were willing to bet 67 million dollars on Eovaldi.
Health will be the big wild card for both the Yanks and Sox - along with can everything click. Last year it seemed the Sox just put it all together at the right time, can they do it again?
came out with his overall farm rankings this morning. Anyone care to post just what number he has the Yanks at? I'd guess somewhere in the 15-20 range, middle of the pack.
No. Im only in favor of Harper or Machado if it gets us a #2 SP via a trade of other assets. I don't see the trade possibility until we see 60 days of Frazier or Andujar.
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
In comment 14286698 ManningLobsItBurressAlone said:
Quote:
came out with his overall farm rankings this morning. Anyone care to post just what number he has the Yanks at? I'd guess somewhere in the 15-20 range, middle of the pack.
No. Im only in favor of Harper or Machado if it gets us a #2 SP via a trade of other assets. I don't see the trade possibility until we see 60 days of Frazier or Andujar.
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
You're right, Boston and Houston along with New York are probably the three best teams in baseball right now. If the Yankees get 90 starts out of Tanaka/Severino/Paxton I think they'll be competitive with both of them, but if their rotation isn't healthy and they can't trade for contingency plans they could very easily end up a distant third behind the other two.
you can't assume each teams position overachievers will come down to the norms and their position underachievers will remain underachieving. Just wrong analysis as each team/player makes adjustments to last year's results.
The bars are set way too high and low every offseason.
It will all come down to pitching and defense, imo. Â
Boston, NY and Houston all have great lineups. The Yanks' infield defense is subpar, especially compared to the Sox and Astros. Nothing to be done about that, I suppose, unless DJ forces his way into the starting lineup.
I agree with Bill that there's no reason to sign Machado or Harper unless it leads to a trade for someone like Kluber...and I assume that if we could have landed someone like that in a deal with Andujar as the centerpiece we'd have already signed MM and made that trade.
RE: It will all come down to pitching and defense, imo. Â
it isn't. SS was decent, 1B was good, the other positions were average at best. NYY by contrast had above average SS defense, average 1B defense (Voit was terrible, Bird merely average, the fill-ins okay), slightly below average 2B defense, average or a little better C defense (contrary to popular belief), and terrible 3B defense. This year they're losing Didi's glove but gaining LeMahieu's; if they get some improvement from Andujar the gap may not be that big.
Where the Sox set themselves apart is OF defense. Depending on the metric they probably have the best in the sport, and they're undeniably a top 3 or so. Yankees have good OF defense, but Boston is on another level.
Agreed that the Sox OF is where their defensive strength lies. Â
what do you think Boone rolls out there as the starting lineup against the O's assuming the Orioles start RH Dylan Bundy against the Yankees. Let's just assume that they suffer no casualties during spring training and no one surprises and makes the roster (ie Frazier) as a starter. I'm curious what people think is, prior to spring training, who will be where. Obviously, a bunch can change between now and then - but I'm curious to hear what people think will happen.
If that trade goes through and it works ...its a sneaky clever trade.
The Yankees insurance payments on Ellsbury stop if he can play this year. Cueto will be covered by insurance. But next year, he slots into CC Sabathia's slot. And as a guy two years removed from an All Star year...its a lottery ticket for no less and/or no more than they were on the hook for on Ellsbury for the next three years anyway.
its a gamble, but ( if true) the thinking behind it reminds me of the Fangraphs article that Dune linked last week about a minors stacked with very high ceiling but low floor gambles on greatness. The kind you take when you have a core at the MLB level.
and let others correct what is wrong with the analysis:
The Yankees have to either:
1) Pay Ellsbury and no coverage on insurance
2) Release him
3) Trade him for a lottery ticket ( because at this point that's what he is)
So they at least get no additional declinations to the bottom line payments this year because Cueto is covered by insurance this year.
Next year they pay him but Cc and Gardner come off the books and they have a recent All Star Pitcher to add ( if he works out and rebounds which is a reasonable expectation year two after TJ surgery)
Or they put him on waivers if he does not work out and are not further damaged monetarily than the old Ellsbury contract would have cost them.
So possibly something from a sunk cost from the past.
I dunno, its either that or some minor league lottery tickets. This proposed lottery ticket likely has a faster and higher payoff than some low minors prospects.
No. Im only in favor of Harper or Machado if it gets us a #2 SP via a trade of other assets. I don't see the trade possibility until we see 60 days of Frazier or Andujar.
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
No doubt Astros and Red Sox with maybe the Nationals and Dodgers are very good teams. But the Yanks won 100 games with a questionable SP rotation, Sanchez batting .186 and out a few weeks, Judge out 7 weeks, Stanton new to the team and the quagmire at first base.
So the Yanks were beat up pretty hard injury wise and still 100 games.
You are right to be cautious, but I think realistically they can win 95-100 wins again and maybe improve with a healthy season.
My comments about caution are about this year and next ( in three years the minors will start to feed the MLB team again) in playoff games where the other elite teams have few weaknesses as well.
I dont remember a time when there were 6 ( LA, Atlanta, Nationals, Sox, Astros and us) elite teams ( plus maybe Cleveland and Rays and Brewers and Cubs more than capable of being tough in a short series) that were very well run and very well balanced teams.
Look back at the late 1990's. We were more clearly better imo than the Sox, Atlanta and Cleveland for most of that time. Yes the DBacks and the Padres snuck in for a year here or there but that imo was an aggressive Fo FA phenomenon more than an elite well run dynastic approach ( and the Sox may fall off soon but I doubt it).
One other thought: I think the Rays and Jays got better. We may race the Soc again but those teams maybe tougher on everyone so 95 and more solid than last year is possible.
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
No doubt. Baseball is a grind every year. The Sox, Astros and yes Cleveland aren't going anywhere. One or two other teams will step up. As good as any team is, baseball has a way of evening things out.
You are right to be skeptical.
in a season where 6 teams won 95 or more games and 8 teams lost more than 95 games. I'm not sure the "100" wins meant what it used to with so many teams trying to lose. But last year is over so on to 2019. Last year I couldn't wait for the season to start this year not so much.
RE: Yanks announce minor league coaching staffs - Â
nothing earth-shaking but nice to read about on a February night. RAB - ( New Window )
Thanks. Followed up on that article. Looks like the Yanks are pathbreakers. Hiring 'new generation' hitting guru Dillon Lawson to the system-wide position, they have also created a similar position for pitching. Desi Druchel has much less experience but apparently a very modern perspective and impressive success at collegiate level.
My problem with that trade is the way they approach big-money deals. Boston has eaten money in the past. The Yankees have thrown in a few million to trade players, usually for a return, and released A-Rod a year early, but by and large they simply will not eat money. That means they're likely to carry Cueto, at least until the final year of his contract, regardless of performance. It just seems like they're trading mild relief (and financial relief, distinct from luxury tax relief they could plow back into the team) for an extra year of salary that could be better used putting finishing touches on what we all expect to be a consistently competitive team.
Bill, that's overly optimistic. I could see 161-1, then 11-2. Â
Machado is begging the Yankees to give him a one-year deal (at least that's what I'm reading into the report). Would be an interesting option with some big contracts coming off the books next year...
Machado on a one-year deal might make more sense than Harper for the player, but not much. Machado might believe that he can pair the offensive production of his first half in a hitter-friendly park with the defensive improvements of his LAD time with an analytics-driven defensive team, and quiet some of the hustle rep. But still, that's a lot of risk when he may be leaving $200 mil on the table, and he goes into next offseason with a comparable 3B (Arenado) and a lesser but still good and much cheaper SS (Gregorius) on the market.
scenario would be Kyrie leaving Boston in the off-season; Boston still trades Tatum for Anthony Davis thinking they can convince him to stay and then he leaves after one season. All the love fest the media has had over how amazing Danny Ainge is and he would have absolutely nothing to show for it.
as a fit for NY and I feel like the Yankees did their due diligence in preparing for life w/o Didi until he can come back.
Ultimately, I still feel like Tulo won't be able to play everyday at SS and Torres plays SS a lot. LeMahieu plays 2B and Andujar plays 3B and they pray that defensively it doesn't cost them the division.
I also think that the Hicks/Judge/Frazier is the starting OF come playoff time.
I like what we've done, but agree with the crowd it's hard to see how we've realistically overtaken the Astros and Red Sox yet.
A lot of things have to go right (better injury luck, return to expecting performance from Sanchez, Bird) for the Yankees to win the series...but we should once again be in the playoff race all season.
I do expect Stanton to be settled into NY now and much more consistent throughout the season, and hopefully Judge is fully healthy and ready to go.
Bullpen = loaded. Rotation = good, but question marks. Seems to be par for the course for the Yanks over the past few seasons.
My questions will be on how the IF defense shakes out, and who plays where. That will be the biggest X-factor for us I think.
Thank heavens - pitchers and catchers next week!
Bill2, you have posted a couple times about the Yanks being the organization with the most questions - they could be great or they could fall on their face. I'm wondering if you are greatly influenced by the team not signing Corbin, Machado or Harper - despite them actually being a better team this year at this point compared to last year.
Clearly with Paxton and Happ the SPs are better than last before Spring Training(far better). Yes losing Didi is huge. But signing LeMahieu softens the blow,; Torres should be better; I fully expect Andujar to be as good offensively and certainly cannot be any worse defensively.
The first base situation is a question, yet I think Voit will be close to what we saw. His approach and oppo power are indications of a sound hitting approach. I also never thought Bird was fully healed. I saw him limp several times late in the season.
The bullpen is every bit as good as last year and while we will miss DRob, unlike Mike at RAB, I think Britton is the better reliever. I'm wary of Ottavino, but all writers seen to think he is the real deal. Now if Kahnle is somewhere between 2017 and 2018 they really improve from 2018.
Does anybody really think Sanchez will be as bad offensively? That left shoulder must have pretty bad to have surgery on it.
Also, I thought Boone was mediocre as a manager last year. But he is smart and I expect he will be much better this year - he should close the gap between Cora and himself.
So all in all, by merely improving starting pitching, this 100 win team is better than last year. Also overlooked is Montgomery returning about June, Johnny Lasagna with an additional year and a couple AA and AAA pitchers being closer to MLB.
But then again, I was optimistic about the Horace Clark Yankees in 1968!
Then March Madness and post combine mock drafts.
Right of the top of my head:
Nationals: Corbin/Strausburgh/Max S.
Mets: Wheeler/Thor/DeGrom
Indians: Kluber/Bauer/Carrasco
Sox: Sale/Price/Porcello
MAYBE the Cardinals: Martinez/Mikalos/Flaherty
MAYBE the Dodgers: Kershaw/Buehler/Ryu
Yankees starting staff - which has been highly debated on whether they are good enough or not...are in better shape than I thought
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
Boston: If all goes right with that rotation, they're in decent shape. But that pen is a question mark from top to bottom, Devers was almost as bad as Andujar defensively and nowhere near the bat, and you're getting below-average offensive production from CF and from C. You're also relying on a number of players continuing to hit out of their minds to make up for it, which may not be a safe bet.
Houston: That rotation is paper-thin. Wade Miley is their 4th starter. And if McHugh is a full-time starter, that pen looks a lot thinner than it did last year. You would expect Correa to be better this year, but if he isn't that's not quite as intimidating an offensive team as it was 2 years ago. Brantley if healthy certainly helps, but you're losing Gattis and Marwin too.
Good points. If things don't quite repeat for Sox in their hitting, we'll see if Alex Cora is the new managing genius some claim. (I'm agnostic on that one, though he was impressive).
The Sox bullpen has really taken a beating this offseason loosing Joe Kelly (who was someone how untouchable in the playoffs) and Kimbrel (who they seemingly has priced himself out of the Boston). They have a lot of question marks and not a lot in the minors - plus there isn't a lot of help in left FA bullpen wise...not sure what their plan is...
The Sox lineup can somehow take absolutely no production from the CF and C positions - collectively they are all plus defenders (so maybe it equals out). Last year they got the ceiling production wise from both JD and Betts (maybe we haven't seen the ceiling yet for Betts - which is a little scary). Benentendi and Devers have room to grow. But 2b is a real question for them - I'll take the Yankees options over them and Mitch Moreland any better than Bird/Voit (I don't think so).
The starters are all a year older. Sale has battled shoulder problems and fatigue in the past, Porcello is solid - but not spectacular, Price is a psychological mess (especially when it comes to the Yanks) and the Sox were willing to bet 67 million dollars on Eovaldi.
Health will be the big wild card for both the Yanks and Sox - along with can everything click. Last year it seemed the Sox just put it all together at the right time, can they do it again?
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
SD #1, MYM #14, NYY #19, BOS #24
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
You're right, Boston and Houston along with New York are probably the three best teams in baseball right now. If the Yankees get 90 starts out of Tanaka/Severino/Paxton I think they'll be competitive with both of them, but if their rotation isn't healthy and they can't trade for contingency plans they could very easily end up a distant third behind the other two.
The bars are set way too high and low every offseason.
I agree with Bill that there's no reason to sign Machado or Harper unless it leads to a trade for someone like Kluber...and I assume that if we could have landed someone like that in a deal with Andujar as the centerpiece we'd have already signed MM and made that trade.
This would be the same Sawx infield that frequently has Eduardo Scissorhands and Devers in it?
Where the Sox set themselves apart is OF defense. Depending on the metric they probably have the best in the sport, and they're undeniably a top 3 or so. Yankees have good OF defense, but Boston is on another level.
The Yankees insurance payments on Ellsbury stop if he can play this year. Cueto will be covered by insurance. But next year, he slots into CC Sabathia's slot. And as a guy two years removed from an All Star year...its a lottery ticket for no less and/or no more than they were on the hook for on Ellsbury for the next three years anyway.
its a gamble, but ( if true) the thinking behind it reminds me of the Fangraphs article that Dune linked last week about a minors stacked with very high ceiling but low floor gambles on greatness. The kind you take when you have a core at the MLB level.
Its a fun franchise to watch
The Yankees have to either:
1) Pay Ellsbury and no coverage on insurance
2) Release him
3) Trade him for a lottery ticket ( because at this point that's what he is)
So they at least get no additional declinations to the bottom line payments this year because Cueto is covered by insurance this year.
Next year they pay him but Cc and Gardner come off the books and they have a recent All Star Pitcher to add ( if he works out and rebounds which is a reasonable expectation year two after TJ surgery)
Or they put him on waivers if he does not work out and are not further damaged monetarily than the old Ellsbury contract would have cost them.
So possibly something from a sunk cost from the past.
I dunno, its either that or some minor league lottery tickets. This proposed lottery ticket likely has a faster and higher payoff than some low minors prospects.
Interesting
I just think the other elite teams are very very good so injuries will matter, Sanchez long history of up and down years concerns me until I see two years of consistency and infield corner defense matters
No doubt Astros and Red Sox with maybe the Nationals and Dodgers are very good teams. But the Yanks won 100 games with a questionable SP rotation, Sanchez batting .186 and out a few weeks, Judge out 7 weeks, Stanton new to the team and the quagmire at first base.
So the Yanks were beat up pretty hard injury wise and still 100 games.
You are right to be cautious, but I think realistically they can win 95-100 wins again and maybe improve with a healthy season.
My comments about caution are about this year and next ( in three years the minors will start to feed the MLB team again) in playoff games where the other elite teams have few weaknesses as well.
I dont remember a time when there were 6 ( LA, Atlanta, Nationals, Sox, Astros and us) elite teams ( plus maybe Cleveland and Rays and Brewers and Cubs more than capable of being tough in a short series) that were very well run and very well balanced teams.
Look back at the late 1990's. We were more clearly better imo than the Sox, Atlanta and Cleveland for most of that time. Yes the DBacks and the Padres snuck in for a year here or there but that imo was an aggressive Fo FA phenomenon more than an elite well run dynastic approach ( and the Sox may fall off soon but I doubt it).
One other thought: I think the Rays and Jays got better. We may race the Soc again but those teams maybe tougher on everyone so 95 and more solid than last year is possible.
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
RAB - ( New Window )
I see a grind out year and not a clear step function better than our best opponents. Three to five years out? I think its us and the Braves that are consistently a notch better
No doubt. Baseball is a grind every year. The Sox, Astros and yes Cleveland aren't going anywhere. One or two other teams will step up. As good as any team is, baseball has a way of evening things out.
You are right to be skeptical.
Then 11-0
We deserve it !
After all, we saw Horace Clarke play...and he was one of the better Yankee players of that era
A Confederation of Hoaraces
My nominee:
Horace Guy "Dooley" Womack
Thanks. Followed up on that article. Looks like the Yanks are pathbreakers. Hiring 'new generation' hitting guru Dillon Lawson to the system-wide position, they have also created a similar position for pitching. Desi Druchel has much less experience but apparently a very modern perspective and impressive success at collegiate level.
Desi Druchel - ( New Window )
Hey wait. I was in little league and played IF. Horace ws my guy!
Link - ( New Window )
Ultimately, I still feel like Tulo won't be able to play everyday at SS and Torres plays SS a lot. LeMahieu plays 2B and Andujar plays 3B and they pray that defensively it doesn't cost them the division.
I also think that the Hicks/Judge/Frazier is the starting OF come playoff time.