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| There seems to be a very good chance that they'll take one with the sixth pick of the draft where quarterbacks like Ohio State's Dwayne Haskins, Missouri's Drew Lock, Duke's Daniel Jones and maybe even Oklahoma's Kyler Murray are possible options. Several others, like West Virginia's Will Grier, could be options on Day 2. The Giants could also use their second-round pick to trade back into the first round if one of those top-tier quarterbacks slips farther than they expect. So their options are open, but they do seem more serious about finding Manning's heir apparent than they were at this time last year. Manning, as SNY has been reporting, is expected to return as the starter for the 2019 season. But the Giants are hopeful that right behind him on the depth chart his eventual successor will be on board. |
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Completion %: 66% - career high
Interceptions: 11 - career low
Yards/Attempt: 7.5 - 16th in NFL
Yards/Completion: 11.3 - 17th in NFL
Avg. Intended Air Yards: 7.2 - 31st in NFL (out of 39)
#1. Eli's eye level has lowered to the pressure.
#2. Eli is trying to avoid negative plays.
The combination of #1 and #2 result in conservative quarterbacking from Eli. That's why Saquon Barkley was targeted 121 times out of Eli's 576 pass attempts (21%).
When Eli threw to Barkley, his YPA was 5.96. That number is way too low for 21% of all our pass plays.
It's all there in the numbers if you want to look, but you're not going to like what you see.
You don’t need the numbers to tell you much of anything... If you watched the Giants you already know his completion rate was high because he was throwing non stop check downs to Saquon he was king of the 5 yard pass on 3rd and 8.. 19 TD passes in like 580 attempts in today’s NFL is pedestrian at best
Kyle Jusczyk - 10.8
Austin Ekeler - 10.4
Tarik Cohen - 10.2
Melvin Gordon - 9.8
Todd Gurley - 9.8
Duke Johnson - 9.1
James Conner - 9.0
Kenyan Drake - 9.0
David Johnson - 8.9
TJ Yeldon - 8.9
Jalen Richard - 8.9
Alvin Kamara - 8.8
Tevin Coleman - 8.6
James White - 8.6
Christian McCaffrey - 8.1
Jacquizz Rodgers - 8.0
Saquon Barkley - 7.9
I suspect this is the result of both ultra-conservative QB play leaning on Barkley as a 3rd down checkdown AND poor offensive scheming by Shurmur, but this is completely unacceptable. We spent a blue chip pick so we could get this ultra-explosive player, and there are 16 teams utilizing their RBs more efficiently in the passing game. Ridiculous.
Roll with Eli once more, or draft someone and cut him loose.
Eli has a 5m roster bonus hitting just prior to the draft and free agency. This forces the Giants to act on Eli before they know they have a replacement.
How you can sit there and try and say he didn't push the ball downfield is crazy. Delusional.
White (123)
Barkley(121)
So we're using him more than almost anyone else uses their RB in the passing game, but getting less out of it than half the league.
Not so sure about this, Terps. It would be great to ditch Eli and land the future young, cost controlled QB.
BUT the problem is that Eli is due a $5M roster bonus on St. Patrick's Day and that's over a month before the draft. Can they really afford to dump Eli and roll the dice and hope the young QB is there when the Giants pick???
I think they are stuck with Eli for this year.
The other point I would make relates to something we call the 'Draftnik's Lament!' And that is that no matter how much digging we do we will never have the same kind of info available to us that NFL teams do. Regarding Eli, for example, Shurmur and his staff spend hours with him every day and as a result are going to have a much more intimate sense of where he is these days with his arm strength, mobility and decision making than even the most seasoned analyst on the outside. If they think he can still play and contribute at a high level, then he likely will be around for a while. If they don't, then he'll likely be gone sooner rather than later no matter what the blathering from the peanut gallery.
How you can sit there and try and say he didn't push the ball downfield is crazy. Delusional.
No, they were 10th in attempts of 20+. Do you have the numbers for 30+? 40+?
I DO have the numbers for how far the ball goes in the air per pass, and they ranked 31 out of 39. And they were 3rd in RB targets, and that RB was 17th in YPC.
You're the one that is, and has been, delusional. The sad thing is the front office continues to share in your delusion. Finger on the pulse, but the pulse is fucked.
It's all there in the numbers if you dig for more than a fucking screen capture from ESPN.
So now we have to make up a new definition since this one doesn't work for you?
You reject the NFL's long time measure of what is classified as a deep ball.
We threw the ball over 20 yards more than 22 other teams in the league.
That is pushing the ball downfield. Period.
I'm merely talking about attempts.
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where Eli's Army begin their annual push into trying to make the audience believe Eli was really good, and the rest of us are just missing his very goodness, and/or a victim of circumstances.
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I love Eli Manning. Always will.
It's time to find his long term replacement.
But I still think that Giants can win with him if he is protected. That's a very popular stance and one that is pretty hard to argue.
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Forcing a QB pick in a weak QB class, and the only experience Gettleman has had in his entire career taking a QB this high is when we got Eli.
You'd think that the narrative would be the one time he had to take a QB high he hit. Instead it is that he hasn't had to take a QB high since eli, so he'll shit the bed.
Just another made-up criticism that may not even fucking apply this year. So we should have drafted a QB last year because the choices are worst this year? Awesome way to go about the draft.
Haha totally agree. I actually am pretty confident that Gettleman knows what he is doing. Especially based on his last draft. Let's let it play out at least before all of the hand wringing... lol
This was more of a function of a poor OL than anything. If the OL can’t protect you can’t take shots down the field. Shurmur must’ve known the OL sucked so he probably schemed more dumpoffs to take some pressure off the OL. The first Dallas game comes to mind.
The Cowboys are 28th in the NFL with 44 throws downfield, only 13 fewer than the Giants. So you're bragging about our high octane passing offense on the strength of 13 plays. The screen capture doesn't list the teams ranked 11th-27th, but the differences between most of the teams in that range are most likely in the single digits...and we're talking a universe of 500-600 total pass plays per team.
And you also have to consider that 2 downfield passes were Beckham's, and not Eli's. If you removed those 2 it probably bumps the Giants down to 18th or something.
Here's another indicator of how the Giants "pushed the ball down the field". Their leading yards/catch player was Beckham at 13.7...which ranked 33rd in the NFL.
And how efficient were we when we threw him the ball? He caught 62.1% of his targets - 133rd in the NFL.
This pass offense was pathetic.
He did. Period. It is inarguable and the number of attempts in doing so back it up.
You can't twist that number.
We don't need to make up stuff to smear the guy, like the poster I was originally responding to that said Eli would become captain checkdown after one sack.
That's all I take issue with and would not really given an opinion on this save for stupid sh-t like that.
That total number could be a reflection of a small sample and not indicative of doing it constantly.
20+ yard passes/total passes
Eli: 55/576=9.54% of his passes went 20+ yards
Prescott: 44/526=8.37% of his passes went 20+ yards
That's the 10th placed guy vs. the 28th placed guy. And you think this is a relevant stat?
This is the second time I'm going to make this reference on BBI...I feel like Vinny Gambini, "I'm sorry I was standing all the way over here. Did you just say you're a fast cook? That's it?"
His eye level has dropped, and he is often picking his receiver before the ball is snapped. It's clear as fucking day. It's clear in the stats, it's clear in the eye test, it's clear when you hear any analyst not affiliated with the Giants talk about him.
He's done.
His eye level has dropped, and he is often picking his receiver before the ball is snapped. It's clear as fucking day. It's clear in the stats, it's clear in the eye test, it's clear when you hear any analyst not affiliated with the Giants talk about him.
He's done.
facts hurt sometimes
But, remember Barkley, is the epicenter of the offense, not Eli. If they can give him room to run and protect Eli when he drops back, this offense can be as good as anyone's. We saw flashes of that last season.
I think RV's article isn't untrue. But, I'm not sure if it is news per se. Of course they would like to get a young QB this year so they have a succession plan at QB. One would think/hope they won't reach. They may not have to if they can finish the OL and block for SB/take the heat off Eli.
BTW, just a hunch, I think they take Grier or Jones in RD2, if one of them is there.
In comment 14290175 Stan in LA said:
Funny how that works.
Mainly because it tends to get missed by a lot of smug fucks.
His eye level has dropped, and he is often picking his receiver before the ball is snapped. It's clear as fucking day. It's clear in the stats, it's clear in the eye test, it's clear when you hear any analyst not affiliated with the Giants talk about him.
He's done.
Terps I'll argue that as bad as the OL was what we are seeing from Manning right now is clearly an adverse effect of said OL but also the effects of two completely new and different systems in the last 3 years. I know it's been brought up before but Eli clearly does not excel in WCO type offensive systems but rather what he had with Gilbride or even McAdoo under Coughlin, and with option routes. In my mind I saw better play from not just Eli but the whole offense after they started getting more comfortable under Shurmur (and of course better OL play). I still feel like Eli can play if A) He gets better blocking and B) He and the receivers (Et Al) get more comfortable with the offense. Look we all know we need to be addressing what we are doing after Eli is gone, but I feel like people saying Eli is done is just not accurate.
Be careful! We can’t have any middle ground here! God forbid people around watch the games with an objective and balanced lens.
Eli is a pretty good qb who can win in this league if the team plays good defense and the OL isn’t disgusting. They won in 2016 with the former. They can certainly win in 2019 if and when.
It’s tiring. Really fucking tiring.
Second half of 2018 was a lot different than the first half. You can’t ignore that. Now what you have to ask yourself is was Eli’s improved play over the second half something sustainable? Can it carry over ? Was his improvement all based on his own fixing or the team’s improvement around him? Ok play. Coaching. Team responding to said coaching.
I think the league has proven if you want to get a QB you can trade for one
Darnold, Trubisky, Goff, Wentz, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Mahomes, RG111 - all were picked after teams traded up.
If you want to wait until next year you can - there is zero point to force a QB pick
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I'm saying Eli Manning is done taking hits. That doesn't make him a coward. It makes him an old 38 (he's played a lot of games) in a young man's game.
His eye level has dropped, and he is often picking his receiver before the ball is snapped. It's clear as fucking day. It's clear in the stats, it's clear in the eye test, it's clear when you hear any analyst not affiliated with the Giants talk about him.
He's done.
Terps I'll argue that as bad as the OL was what we are seeing from Manning right now is clearly an adverse effect of said OL but also the effects of two completely new and different systems in the last 3 years. I know it's been brought up before but Eli clearly does not excel in WCO type offensive systems but rather what he had with Gilbride or even McAdoo under Coughlin, and with option routes. In my mind I saw better play from not just Eli but the whole offense after they started getting more comfortable under Shurmur (and of course better OL play). I still feel like Eli can play if A) He gets better blocking and B) He and the receivers (Et Al) get more comfortable with the offense. Look we all know we need to be addressing what we are doing after Eli is gone, but I feel like people saying Eli is done is just not accurate.
The data says he has become very conservative. I guess he can still play in that he still can throw a football and read a defense, but his conservative nature (whatever its cause) is going to limit the offense result in losses.
He certainly, absolutely, is not worth the $23.2M cap hit or even the $17M we'd gain by cutting him. Even if he can "still play", so can his younger, cheaper replacement.
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That's not what the numbers say:
Completion %: 66% - career high
Interceptions: 11 - career low
Yards/Attempt: 7.5 - 16th in NFL
Yards/Completion: 11.3 - 17th in NFL
Avg. Intended Air Yards: 7.2 - 31st in NFL (out of 39)
#1. Eli's eye level has lowered to the pressure.
#2. Eli is trying to avoid negative plays.
The combination of #1 and #2 result in conservative quarterbacking from Eli. That's why Saquon Barkley was targeted 121 times out of Eli's 576 pass attempts (21%).
When Eli threw to Barkley, his YPA was 5.96. That number is way too low for 21% of all our pass plays.
It's all there in the numbers if you want to look, but you're not going to like what you see.
You don’t need the numbers to tell you much of anything... If you watched the Giants you already know his completion rate was high because he was throwing non stop check downs to Saquon he was king of the 5 yard pass on 3rd and 8.. 19 TD passes in like 580 attempts in today’s NFL is pedestrian at best
Yeah no other QB's check down or get garbage time stats.
Remind yourself that next time you look at Matt Ryan's numbers.
The data says he has become very conservative. I guess he can still play in that he still can throw a football and read a defense, but his conservative nature (whatever its cause) is going to limit the offense result in losses.
He certainly, absolutely, is not worth the $23.2M cap hit or even the $17M we'd gain by cutting him. Even if he can "still play", so can his younger, cheaper replacement.
I agree he has become more conservative but how much of that is on the system and the coaching, as well as lack of familiarity (or rather comfort level) with the offense? Coupled with terrible OL play? I don't disagree at all on the cap # though. I wish they could renegotiate his deal.
Second half of 2018 was a lot different than the first half. You can’t ignore that. Now what you have to ask yourself is was Eli’s improved play over the second half something sustainable? Can it carry over ? Was his improvement all based on his own fixing or the team’s improvement around him? Ok play. Coaching. Team responding to said coaching.
I find the second half of the season to be a bit of fools gold similar to Sam Darnold's last 4 games. Giants got a lot of teams in bad spots. Redskins quit, Colts slept through first quarter of game, shutout in Titans game, and scored on a cowboys team that had nothing to play for. That's the last four games of the season. The Bears game was the only truly impressive offensive performance in that second half that gets thrown around.
Shurmur:
A: Yeah, we called them. There were deep routes called that we couldn’t get the ball downfield, so you check it down. Then you move on.
A: You call plays to be aggressive. If they’re there, you take your shots. That’s how you dictate. And if they’re not there, you check them down, and then the backs catch the ball and run with it. You’re talking about seven-eight yard gains, which is fine, so that’s how you dictate. Then you make them defend those. That’s how you dictate, and then when you choose to run the ball, you make yardage.
Eli:
A: That usually leads to bad plays. There’s ways to get explosive plays without throwing it deep. It’s not like they all have to be go-routes or post-routes. Hitting guys on the move when they do play man, in zones you can still hit plays. In breaking routes and buying time. You can still hit explosive plays when teams are trying to take away the deep shots.
Case Keenum in Denver:
Also found and posted this article about Pat Shurmur's QB concepts for Case Keenum in Minny:
Minnesota’s offense was all predicated on staying on schedule. They weren’t built to come from behind or convert a lot of 3rd and longs (few teams are built for this). Their run/pass split was one of the most balanced in the league last year as they were near 50% of runs and passes.
Getting small chunks of yards that set up 2nd or 3rd and manageable kept them from getting behind the sticks early in drives.
Low risk plays led to low turnovers
Low risk doesn’t necessarily mean no big plays, as Keenum still had his fair share of big plays. However, the bread and butter of the offense was a short/intermediate passing game that were inherently lower risk passes.
This approach allowed Keenum to finish top 5 in interception rate, along with Drew Brees and Tom Brady (who employ similar offensive strategies).
Get the ball to players in space
We’ll dig into it more in a later post, but Case Keenum and the Minnesota offense was one of the best in the league at generating YAC for the offense. They did this by scheming players into space where they could go make a play.
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It's not a comparison, it's context on what Shurmur is asking the QB to do.
Eli has thrown 7,972 passes in the NFL...that's 6th all time. He's thrown more passes than Roger Staubach and Terry Bradshaw combined. He's had one of the longest, fullest careers in NFL history. The guy wasn't going to play forever, and things rarely end the way we want them to. He is not the player he was in 2011. He's not even the player he was in 2015.
As a fan I wish he'd walk away, but I get the $23M is a lot of money to walk away from. That's why Mara has to be the adult in the room on this and do what's right by the team.
His eye level has dropped, and he is often picking his receiver before the ball is snapped. It's clear as fucking day. It's clear in the stats, it's clear in the eye test, it's clear when you hear any analyst not affiliated with the Giants talk about him.
He's done.
Agree on all points. I still would rather go with him and tank naturally in 2019 and go get our guy in the spring of 2020.
Second half of the career: the stats are solid, but few wins
You not be any more wrong but hey, it’s what you do. Keep on fighting the good fight.
Second half of the career: the stats are solid, but few wins
The stats aren't great in the second half. The picks are down and the completion % is up, but the TD totals and yard/attempt are down...and that has coincided with the Giants consistently being in the top half/top 10 in NFL scoring 2004-2011 to only being in the top 10 once since 2013.
The guy has had two careers. One was great, one has been mediocre to bad.
The Cowboys are 28th in the NFL with 44 throws downfield, only 13 fewer than the Giants. So you're bragging about our high octane passing offense on the strength of 13 plays. The screen capture doesn't list the teams ranked 11th-27th, but the differences between most of the teams in that range are most likely in the single digits...and we're talking a universe of 500-600 total pass plays per team.
And you also have to consider that 2 downfield passes were Beckham's, and not Eli's. If you removed those 2 it probably bumps the Giants down to 18th or something.
Here's another indicator of how the Giants "pushed the ball down the field". Their leading yards/catch player was Beckham at 13.7...which ranked 33rd in the NFL.
And how efficient were we when we threw him the ball? He caught 62.1% of his targets - 133rd in the NFL.
This pass offense was pathetic.
Are we allowed to attribute the OL issues and new offense being implemented in 2018? I’m not making excuses. I’m just asking.
Do we ever chalk up wins and losses to more than just qb play? And if so when are those other factors applicable?
I’m not trying to make excuses as much as I’m just dying to know when some of you guys give the qb a pass? When? Eli’s numbers were ordinary in 2018 right? So, is it fair to say that Eli can play better if the team plays better— like most qbs?
When do we give the qb a pass ?
Here come the platitudes.
Yeah, hopefully Eli will play better if the team around him improves, but why should we take that on faith? Do you think that's what successful teams do? Take things on faith?
You can't make huge decisions on ifs and hopefullys. While we hope that Eli will improve at 38 (and how many athletes do that?), the greater likelihood is that his game will continue to degrade because he is a human being, and time is undefeated.