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NFT: Phillies closing on a deal for Realmuto

DanMetroMan : 2/7/2019 11:22 am
It's believed Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro will both be involved. Love to bang on Jeter and we'll see the final outcome but to land those 2 (at minimum), the Marlins did a great job after all the mocking.
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It looks to me like they didn't learn much from Yelich last year  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 1:38 pm : link
for this package to be any different than the type they got last year, that they instantly regretted, the 3rd piece is going to have to be real strong.

Here's an article from Martino pointing out the obvious - the Marlins were out of their minds with the asking price in December and now they're going to end up with a far lesser deal than what the Mets would have been willing to do then.
The Marlins overplayed their hand with Mets, J.T. Realmuto - ( New Window )
RE: It looks to me like they didn't learn much from Yelich last year  
Shecky : 2/7/2019 1:49 pm : link
In comment 14290057 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
for this package to be any different than the type they got last year, that they instantly regretted, the 3rd piece is going to have to be real strong.

Here's an article from Martino pointing out the obvious - the Marlins were out of their minds with the asking price in December and now they're going to end up with a far lesser deal than what the Mets would have been willing to do then. The Marlins overplayed their hand with Mets, J.T. Realmuto - ( New Window )


Lol, nice article
Mets have re-signed Mesoraco  
allstarjim : 2/7/2019 2:08 pm : link
So Wilson Ramos, d'Arnaud, AND Mesoraco? Perhaps this works itself out in the spring, both Ramos and d'Arnaud struggle with staying on the field, so I kind of like this as a depth move, but I doubt all three can be on the 25-man to break the spring.
Ah  
allstarjim : 2/7/2019 2:09 pm : link
Just saw Mesoraco is on a minor league deal. Good move, BVW.
Alfaro is probably an above average catcher right now...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 2:09 pm : link
and he has five years of control. Sanchez is a lotto ticket, to be sure, but the upside is legit ace potential. We'll see what the third and maybe fourth pieces are. Unless the third piece is a scrub, it's a pretty good deal.
Cespedes is gonna go 60 day DL, TDA will almost def stay in FL  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:16 pm : link
Mesoraco will be on the OD roster.
RE: Cespedes is gonna go 60 day DL, TDA will almost def stay in FL  
Metnut : 2/7/2019 2:20 pm : link
In comment 14290112 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Mesoraco will be on the OD roster.


Should be an open and legit camp battle IMO. Neither of the two has done enough to be guaranteed to break camp with the team. Let's see who comes into camp in better shape and has a better spring.

Love having depth and internal competition in the organization.
RE: Alfaro is probably an above average catcher right now...  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:23 pm : link
In comment 14290105 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
and he has five years of control. Sanchez is a lotto ticket, to be sure, but the upside is legit ace potential. We'll see what the third and maybe fourth pieces are. Unless the third piece is a scrub, it's a pretty good deal.


I'd imagine opinions will be all over the place re: Alfaro bc there's still a lot of volatility in what he becomes, but I personally think at this point even considering him an average starting C would be a generous assessment. He's K'd over 33% of the time as a major leaguer and was below league average as a hitter last year even with a .407 babip. Steamer projects him to be worth less than 1 win next season and I believe Zips had him even lower (both lower than Kevin Plawecki for context). There are tools to dream on, but he is no "get" for Miami imo.
Trade is complete  
dep026 : 2/7/2019 2:38 pm : link
Realmuto for

Alfraro, Sanchez, Will Stewart (non prospect) and international bonus slot.
RE: RE: It looks to me like they didn't learn much from Yelich last year  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:39 pm : link
In comment 14290075 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 14290057 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


for this package to be any different than the type they got last year, that they instantly regretted, the 3rd piece is going to have to be real strong.

Here's an article from Martino pointing out the obvious - the Marlins were out of their minds with the asking price in December and now they're going to end up with a far lesser deal than what the Mets would have been willing to do then. The Marlins overplayed their hand with Mets, J.T. Realmuto - ( New Window )



Lol, nice article


forgetting hindsight 20/20, the marlins being insane, and all the other aspects of what really happened - would you have preferred trading for Realmuto over Diaz assuming the prospect price ends up similar? I know you weren't a fan of Ramos until he wow'd them.

I'm not a Realmuto truther but I think i'd have preferred trading for him over Diaz even with less years of control. Both positions had good value options in FA so neither would have opened a hole, so just a matter of preference I guess.
RE: Trade is complete  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:41 pm : link
In comment 14290159 dep026 said:
Quote:
Realmuto for

Alfraro, Sanchez, Will Stewart (non prospect) and international bonus slot.


Wow. I think the phillies just robbed the Marlins worse than Milwaukee last year. Great move for Philly.
.  
pjcas18 : 2/7/2019 2:43 pm : link

Joel Sherman
‏Verified account @Joelsherman1
5s6 seconds ago

#Phillies wanted to do Realmuto deal without touching their 4 best position prospects: Bohm, Haseley, Moniak, Luis Garcia and succeeded. Big key for them.

Phillies get the best catcher in baseball, no top 4 prospects. Mets get a 35 yr old, recently suspended 2B, signed to an awful long-term contract and a closer and it costs their top 2 prospects.

Why? because the Mets had to unload players like Bruce and Swarzak to make it happen plus get money back.

Not turning this into a Mets thread, just demonstrating how money impacts these transactions some times. Phillies GM says "we're going to spend crazy money this off-season" or something like that, and Mets FO says we're going to do our best to remain payroll neutral.
PJ they gave up their #1 prospect - he's just a pitcher  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:46 pm : link
though he also had to get shut down last year for elbow inflammation and subsequently had a setback during fall league.

I'm reminded of the trade the mets made last year for a high upside SP who ended up needing TJS this offseason. Oh yeah, that was a deal with the phillies too.
Marlins played  
Shecky : 2/7/2019 2:48 pm : link
And lost. I was under the impression third piece,guess that was wrong. I like A,faro as a “good” player. Not big on Sixto. But Marlins screwed up, had zero intention of showing up to Ps&Cs with Realmuto, so did as could have been expected. I know a lot of people are very high on Sixto, so...

But greed kills. Mets offers were better, IMO. As were others. Shouldn’t have pissed off the Astros either, who I thought for sure were the match. Oh well, fuck the Marlins.
RE: Marlins played  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:51 pm : link
In comment 14290171 Shecky said:
Quote:
And lost. I was under the impression third piece,guess that was wrong. I like A,faro as a “good” player. Not big on Sixto. But Marlins screwed up, had zero intention of showing up to Ps&Cs with Realmuto, so did as could have been expected. I know a lot of people are very high on Sixto, so...

But greed kills. Mets offers were better, IMO. As were others. Shouldn’t have pissed off the Astros either, who I thought for sure were the match. Oh well, fuck the Marlins.

This was such a predictable trainwreck of a strategy. Good news is they won't have to go through it again next year since the don't have anyone else good enough to be "next year's yelich/realmuto/ozuna/stanton" debacle. After all the BS met rumors I'm glad they got screwed, just not by someone in our division.
Worst part about him going to Phillies  
Shecky : 2/7/2019 2:53 pm : link
Is I think he will have a HUGE breakout year (for him at least) in that ballpark. Hope he doesn’t sign an extension that he desperately wants yet. Coming off this market and before a breakout season, Phil’s could get a huge value of a contract today. THAT would trade a steal regardless of what Sixto becomes.
Wow  
Archer : 2/7/2019 2:54 pm : link
I remember reading that Sanchez was shut down last year with elbow problems and he did not pitch in the fall for the reason

This could be a terrible trade for Miami if Sanchez ultimately has Tommy John

I would not have traded for him
RE: PJ they gave up their #1 prospect - he's just a pitcher  
pjcas18 : 2/7/2019 2:55 pm : link
In comment 14290168 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
though he also had to get shut down last year for elbow inflammation and subsequently had a setback during fall league.

I'm reminded of the trade the mets made last year for a high upside SP who ended up needing TJS this offseason. Oh yeah, that was a deal with the phillies too.


thanks, I missed that "position player" in prospects, same point though. Phillies gave up less for the best catcher in baseball, cost controlled for 2 years, than the Mets did to "take Cano and his contract off the hands of the Mariners".

my point remains, if the Mets didn't have to deal Bruce and Swarzak they could have gotten Cano and Diaz for much less.

and that is frustrating as a fan.
Stewart is an underwhelming 3rd piece...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 2:56 pm : link
but the two headliners I like just fine. Yeah Alfaro's K rate too high, BB rate too low, but there's no reason he can't improve. Huge arm. Sanchez is a lotto ticket, but if (IF) he stays healthy he has ace ceiling and would have headliner trade value. Seems like they're taking the Braves approach of stockpiling big upside arms, though the Braves seem to have better development personnel and a number of those arms had polish to go with the stuff. The Marlins went from having an awful farm system to having one that probably should rank smack dab in the middle, and they're on the way up.
RE: Worst part about him going to Phillies  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 2:58 pm : link
In comment 14290180 Shecky said:
Quote:
Is I think he will have a HUGE breakout year (for him at least) in that ballpark. Hope he doesn’t sign an extension that he desperately wants yet. Coming off this market and before a breakout season, Phil’s could get a huge value of a contract today. THAT would trade a steal regardless of what Sixto becomes.


Yea in that ballpark Realmuto has massive massive potential - especially if they also put someone like Harper or Machado in the lineup with him. His road OPS over the last 3 years has been .890. Playing at CBP that may become his norm.
Might end up enticing Harper, Keuchel, and Kimbrel to go to Philly  
The_Boss : 2/7/2019 2:58 pm : link
-
RE: RE: PJ they gave up their #1 prospect - he's just a pitcher  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 3:02 pm : link
In comment 14290184 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14290168 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


though he also had to get shut down last year for elbow inflammation and subsequently had a setback during fall league.

I'm reminded of the trade the mets made last year for a high upside SP who ended up needing TJS this offseason. Oh yeah, that was a deal with the phillies too.



thanks, I missed that "position player" in prospects, same point though. Phillies gave up less for the best catcher in baseball, cost controlled for 2 years, than the Mets did to "take Cano and his contract off the hands of the Mariners".

my point remains, if the Mets didn't have to deal Bruce and Swarzak they could have gotten Cano and Diaz for much less.

and that is frustrating as a fan.


No disagreement here. Even ignoring the Cano salary swap side, I think we gave up as much talent for Diaz.

I really didn't think Miami could undersell Realmuto more than they did with Yelich but I was wrong. I knew there was almost no way they'd risk carrying him into the season but at this price they may as well have carried him to the deadline.
People may say Miami is rebuilding  
pjcas18 : 2/7/2019 3:09 pm : link
but it's not hard to forget just over 2 years ago they had Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, and Jose Fernandez, among others.

it's almost all self-inflicted, other than Fernandez.
It's a consequence of the sale...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 3:13 pm : link
the winning group didn't have as much money behind them as most owners, the revenue streams were modest, and they had no farm system to speak of. Losing Fernandez stung, but the real problem was the sale.
RE: Stewart is an underwhelming 3rd piece...  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 3:17 pm : link
In comment 14290186 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
but the two headliners I like just fine. Yeah Alfaro's K rate too high, BB rate too low, but there's no reason he can't improve. Huge arm. Sanchez is a lotto ticket, but if (IF) he stays healthy he has ace ceiling and would have headliner trade value. Seems like they're taking the Braves approach of stockpiling big upside arms, though the Braves seem to have better development personnel and a number of those arms had polish to go with the stuff. The Marlins went from having an awful farm system to having one that probably should rank smack dab in the middle, and they're on the way up.


They haven't exactly stockpiled. They've got Alcantara and now they got Sanchez 2-3 years behind him in the system, and that's if everything goes very well. Their system is still going to be at best middle of the pack after this trade and they have nothing left to trade at the big league level.

In the past 14 months they have traded away more young cost controlled players than any team since...they themselves traded away Cabrera & Beckett. This time they traded away even more talent than they did then, and I'd bet pretty confidently they didn't get back a Hanley Ramirez.
Hearing Keuchel  
Shecky : 2/7/2019 3:17 pm : link
A possibility. Can’t vouch it’s legit though
RE: Hearing Keuchel  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 3:19 pm : link
In comment 14290230 Shecky said:
Quote:
A possibility. Can’t vouch it’s legit though


For Phillies I assume? That'd be a very logical follow-up move.
Guzman, Garrett and Rogers...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 3:21 pm : link
all of whose stocks are sliding right now, but all of whom had (and have) high upside.
RE: It's a consequence of the sale...  
pjcas18 : 2/7/2019 3:23 pm : link
In comment 14290217 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
the winning group didn't have as much money behind them as most owners, the revenue streams were modest, and they had no farm system to speak of. Losing Fernandez stung, but the real problem was the sale.


Should have sold to Kushner. I wonder if that would have been a conflict of interest of some type. Didn't W own the Rangers while his father was president?
Of the Fangraphs Top 12 Miami prospects...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 3:25 pm : link
Only four were signed (draft or IFA) by the Marlins and two of those (Mesa and Connor Scott) were signed in the last year.
RE: Guzman, Garrett and Rogers...  
Eric on Li : 2/7/2019 3:34 pm : link
In comment 14290239 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
all of whose stocks are sliding right now, but all of whom had (and have) high upside.


Garrett and Rogers were both drafted before the sale and not sure how hard either throws, but I was talking about their strategy (or complete lack of) through the process of the dumpage of all their talent. I see what you're saying in that Guzman, Alcantara, and Sanchez all fit the high velocity lotto ticket profile, but I still think that's an unbelievably weak return for what they gave up. Certainly nowhere near what Atlanta was able to stockpile selling up far lesser MLB talent.
Sure...  
Dunedin81 : 2/7/2019 3:57 pm : link
I get that Stanton required a reckoning with the money, that Brinson was a gamble that simply hasn't paid off and that nobody quite expected Yelich to be THIS good, but you would expect significant improvement on the farm if you trade four All Stars. Heck, the Yankees sold two relievers (one for three months) and a couple aging veterans and got significantly more in return.
buyer beware on sixto  
capone : 2/7/2019 4:20 pm : link
he is small and has had neck/shoulder and elbow issues already .. of course Philly downplayed the injuries and we were all gonna see the real Sixto in the Arizona Fall League and then they pulled him from that after missing the last half of the last half of the season as a "precaution" , yet he has been mentioned in every deal with them .. I think they know something...
Oh no  
allstarjim : 2/8/2019 2:41 am : link
Realmuto's .653 OPS and 0 HRs against the Mets last year are going to the Phils.

In 52 PAs past year against Mets, he was a non-factor. There is no hand-wringing here
RE: Oh no  
Jay on the Island : 2/8/2019 8:52 am : link
In comment 14290505 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Realmuto's .653 OPS and 0 HRs against the Mets last year are going to the Phils.

In 52 PAs past year against Mets, he was a non-factor. There is no hand-wringing here

A division rival acquires the best catcher in baseball and it’s no big deal because of a 52 at bat sample size? If the Mets acquired Realmuto without giving up MLB ready players then you would be ecstatic. This is not good for either of our teams.
Phillies with  
CMicks3110 : 2/8/2019 9:03 am : link
Realmuto don't scare me that much. If they add Harper, they become scarier. But they still wouldn't be as good as the Nats assortment of talent the last few years. Their bullpen and rotation are not in the same stratosphere as the Mets.
If the Phillies add Harper they're on par with the Brave's lineup  
Eric on Li : 2/8/2019 9:10 am : link
and a major threat for the division. Just having Nola probably pushes them past the Braves and up to the level of Mets/Nats. The over/under for wins Realmuto/Harper would be worth has to be north of 10. And that number is being added to a team that won 80 last year and was already projected to improve.

Both those teams are behind the Mets/Nats pitching staffs but it won't make the division any less of a bloodbath in the regular season.

If the Phillies go nuts and add some combo of Harper + Keuchel + Kimbrel they'd have a legitimate claim as division favorites.
If the Phillies get Harper....  
dep026 : 2/8/2019 9:13 am : link
their lineup would be...

Hernandez
Segura
Harper
Hoskins
Realmuto
Franco (if they dont get Moose or Machado)
McCutchen
Quinn/Herrera

Thats pretty nasty.
I think Phillies rotation is  
Metnut : 2/8/2019 9:23 am : link
underrated. Nick Pivetta looks poised for a Wheeler type of breakout this year. Any of you dudes who play fantasy baseball, draft Pivetta as a breakout/sleeper.
RE: If the Phillies get Harper....  
Eric on Li : 2/8/2019 9:26 am : link
In comment 14290578 dep026 said:
Quote:
their lineup would be...

Hernandez
Segura
Harper
Hoskins
Realmuto
Franco (if they dont get Moose or Machado)
McCutchen
Quinn/Herrera

Thats pretty nasty.


It is. I still like Atlanta's a little bit better, especially if you factor in defense too, but it's close. In that ballpark Philly would probably score more.
Don't forget there were rumors that they asked about Joc Pederson too  
rich in DC : 2/8/2019 9:28 am : link
He'd be a platoon guy.
RE: I think Phillies rotation is  
Eric on Li : 2/8/2019 9:35 am : link
In comment 14290599 Metnut said:
Quote:
underrated. Nick Pivetta looks poised for a Wheeler type of breakout this year. Any of you dudes who play fantasy baseball, draft Pivetta as a breakout/sleeper.


Their rotation isn't bad but I don't love the BP. Robertson is a little prone to home runs so not sure he was the best fit for them.

I think the Mets have best BP and tied with Nats for best rotation, but probably weakest every day lineup at the moment. Or at least most dependent on needing a few career years.
Braves have the best lineup but weakest pitching staff.
Phillies don't currently have the best anything, but they're within range in all areas so it aill depends on what other big moves they make. If they add Kimbrel they could have a better BP than the Mets. If they add Harper their lineup is up their with the Braves. Keuchel probably still doesn't give them a better rotation than Mets/Nats, but it sure helps.

Nats are the most well rounded. They have 3 legitimate everyday stars to carry their lineup, 3 legitimate cy young candidates to carry their rotation, and a BP that should be good enough in the regular season.
If Seranthony takes the next step  
dep026 : 2/8/2019 9:41 am : link
their bullpen could be huge for them...

Robertson
Dominguez
Neshek
Morgan (he can either be great or awful)
Arano
Hunter
Alverez

is actually pretty deep and versatile.
So Eric...  
Metnut : 2/8/2019 9:41 am : link
I think you're saying the NL East is going to be interesting this year?

Sure going to be entertaining to see Mets play ATL/WSH/PHi for 50 or so games this year.
For amusement, may want to check out the Yankee thread  
Shecky : 2/8/2019 9:41 am : link
Mets fans always complain the team should spend, like the Yankees
Yankees fans are complaining about being cheap, and should spend like the Sox
RE: If Seranthony takes the next step  
Eric on Li : 2/8/2019 10:12 am : link
In comment 14290636 dep026 said:
Quote:
their bullpen could be huge for them...

Robertson
Dominguez
Neshek
Morgan (he can either be great or awful)
Arano
Hunter
Alverez

is actually pretty deep and versatile.


Yeah I just don't love the Robertson fit. Love him as the #2/3 guy in the pen, not as comfortable with him as the #1/2. If Dominguez continues improving it's less of a worry, but between his slight tendency with the long ball and having to step into a more prominent role, I think there's a little risk of underperformance there.
RE: So Eric...  
Eric on Li : 2/8/2019 10:13 am : link
In comment 14290637 Metnut said:
Quote:
I think you're saying the NL East is going to be interesting this year?

Sure going to be entertaining to see Mets play ATL/WSH/PHi for 50 or so games this year.


Yea it's going to be messy. Fingers crossed Machado and Harper find teams in different divisions. And Keuchel. And Kimbrel.
RE: RE: If Seranthony takes the next step  
dep026 : 2/8/2019 10:22 am : link
In comment 14290687 Eric on Li said:
Quote:

Yeah I just don't love the Robertson fit. Love him as the #2/3 guy in the pen, not as comfortable with him as the #1/2. If Dominguez continues improving it's less of a worry, but between his slight tendency with the long ball and having to step into a more prominent role, I think there's a little risk of underperformance there.


Arano is the guy that I think takes the next step. Anthony has the stuff to dominate but Arano has more of a bulldog mentality and he was reaching in the upper 90s last year. I am expecting him to be a big time reliever this year.
I don't see a lot of the Marlins...  
BillKo : 2/8/2019 4:54 pm : link
....so I'm going on reports.

Is Realmuto really that good? I looked at his stats...ehhhhh.

Just for comparison, I expected to see a Buster Posey type stat line from his hey day......

In fact, is he better than Posey?
RE: Aw man  
81_Great_Dane : 2/8/2019 6:24 pm : link
In comment 14289903 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
The Phillies are passing up on the chance of making history - they could have been the only franchise to ever have TWO Sixtos!

Sixto, kid, was a friend of mine.
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