Doing a bit of thinking, which is dangerous this late....
Now everyone will obviously have their own preferences, but there are three quarterbacks worthy of an upper 1st round grade: Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, and Kyler Murray.
So clearly, the Giants sit at #6 overall, with the Cardinals, 49ers, Jets, Raiders, and Buccaneers in front of them.
The aforementioned teams all have viable options at QB: Rosen, Garoppolo, Darnold, Carr, and Winston, respectively. There is a chance that one of those teams is not enamored with their current starter, but that seems somewhat unlikely. Carr and Winston Are probably on the shakiest footing, but they have recently gotten votes of confidence from the coaching staffs.
So then the real question is if one of the top five teams doesn’t draft a quarterback, what is the likelihood that they find a trade partner who wants to move up and select one?
The Jaguars, one spot behind the Giants, are clearly the biggest competition for a quarterback. With that said, there have been several reports linking them to Nick Foles, which makes sense, because they are a win now team and they feel they are probably only a veteran quarterback away.
Lions, Bills, Broncos, Bengals, Packers, Dolphins, Falcons and Redskins round out the top 15. Of that group, only the Broncos, Bengals, Dolphins, and maybe the Redskins have a need a quarterback.
So what would the cost them to move up ahead of the Giants to take a quarterback? The standard draft pick value chart would tell us....
Redskins-15 to 5 would cost them their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
Dolphins-13 to 5 would cost them their 1st, 3rd, and 4th.
Bengals-11 to 5 would cost them their 1st and 2nd.
Broncos-10 to 5 would cost them their their 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.
Jaguars -7 to 5 would cost them their 1st and 3rd.
Now obviously, this methodology is flawed. The chart tends to be a little too unreliable and pragmatic. But for the sake of this exercise, let’s say it is at least somewhat accurate. I think adding additional compensation is necessary, as every year there is inflation to move up in the draft.
My point is that all three QB’s will probably not go within the top 5. The real question is who will be willing to move up high enough to take Haskins?
If it’s not the Haskins, Lock would be a nice consolation prize. Murray is the wild card.
The real question is if the Giants Fall in love with Haskins, and have to trade up, how far will they have to go? Anyone else behind the Giants knows that they’ve got to move up to at least 5 if they love Haskins whereas the Giants aren’t sure how high they’ll have to go.
Last year the Jets traded up to number 3 with the Colts. The cost was the number 6 pick and three 2nd round picks. Obviously the Giants don’t have three 2nd rounders. The chart says their 1st, 2nd and 4th would be enough, even though that is less than what the Jets paid last year.
It comes down to this:
Do the Giants like Haskins enough to move up for him if they have to?
Well another team jump the Giants to draft Haskins?
If Haskins goes before 6, is Lock an option?
Could Haskins and Lock both go in the top 5, and if so, is Murray an option?
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The consensus on BBI was that this draft was a Herbert or bust at the QB position. Now a sizable cut wants to trade up for Haskins.
Sheep.
Not for those of us who watched him. And for those who were enamored with him, and that was mostly driven by what they read on the internet, some eventually came around when they actually took the time to watch Herbert play.
It's clear to me as far back as the '90s here at BBI, most BBIers don't watch college football; and those who do, struggle to understand what they are watching.
You’re probably right.
But a lot of fat needs to be trimmed away to get to the filet mignon. His mechanics/accuracy and decision making need major improvement.
I understand why he went back to Oregon. He loves Eugene and felt he needed more time.
Personally, I would have come out because of the premium placed on the position. I think he would have killed it at the Combine and found a spot in the top ten...
I don't think we'll trade up for ANY QB in this draft.
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From the Rick Gosselin thread.
SHO'NUFF : 2/9/2019 8:26 pm : link
"I must be missing something in regards to this year's QB class as every mock draft I have seen has 3 or 4 QBs in 1st round, but I have evaluated nearly all the hyped QBs and haven't given a 1st or 2nd round grade to any QB yet."
via Twitter
Which falls in line with just about everything that’s been written about this class since the start of the fall and with what I’ve been preaching since last March.
For every Rick Gosselin, you have tons of good draft guys saying differently. Boylhart, Greg Gabriel, McShay, Brugler, Jeremiah and that's just off the top of my head, all like Haskins quite a bit.
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In comment 14292299 WillVAB said:
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The consensus on BBI was that this draft was a Herbert or bust at the QB position. Now a sizable cut wants to trade up for Haskins.
Sheep.
Don't be ridiculous throwing around "consensus" and "sizeable cut" in your color-commentary to describe what entire board would promote doing...
Am I wrong? Look through the archives.
I dont have to. First of all, the words BBI and Consensus have no business ever being used together...
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In comment 14292375 Jimmy Googs said:
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In comment 14292299 WillVAB said:
Quote:
The consensus on BBI was that this draft was a Herbert or bust at the QB position. Now a sizable cut wants to trade up for Haskins.
Sheep.
Don't be ridiculous throwing around "consensus" and "sizeable cut" in your color-commentary to describe what entire board would promote doing...
Am I wrong? Look through the archives.
I dont have to. First of all, the words BBI and Consensus have no business ever being used together...
Cool, I guess carry on pretending you’ve wanted Haskins all along.
Cool, I guess carry on pretending you’ve wanted Haskins all along.
Huh? i don't think I have made one comment regarding any college QB other than Jake Fromm on this site, and thats because I am a UGA fan. You are mistaken.
I don't know if any guys coming out this year are worth taking any more than its worth waiting until 2020. I just know DG has 2 tough decisions to make...which draft makes sense to pick his guy and who is on the short list.
That's roughly in line with the trade value chart but who knows that high in the draft what it would cost given the number of potential suitors.
I dont get the fascination with Lock. Jones has better mechanics, moves better, and dealt with pressure situations better during his time with Duke. If he had guys who could catch the fucking ball he would have been a monster. In fact I would love it if we traded back and took him.
Beyond that we'll have the pick of the litter at #6. Only problem is the only other guy possibly taleneted enough to take there is Murray. As we know his evaluation is fraught with peril. His size, inexperience and baseball ties are downright scary. I doubt the Giants FO will take him at #6...but it is possible.
The rest of this class don't warrant the pick. That includes Jones, Lock, Finley ,Grier et al. None of that lot deserves such a high slot in the Draft.
I dont get the fascination with Lock. Jones has better mechanics, moves better, and dealt with pressure situations better during his time with Duke. If he had guys who could catch the fucking ball he would have been a monster. In fact I would love it if we traded back and took him.
I can understand the skepticism on Lock, but Jones will struggle heavily in the meadowlands after Halloween. His deep throws require way too much loft to get down field, just won’t fit well in north jersey. I’m a lock fan, but even he is not worth a top 10 pick. This class isn’t the one to find your perennial top 10 NFL qb.
That would be a refreshing change.
I can keep a lid on it, if you prefer.
From the Rick Gosselin thread.
SHO'NUFF : 2/9/2019 8:26 pm : link
"I must be missing something in regards to this year's QB class as every mock draft I have seen has 3 or 4 QBs in 1st round, but I have evaluated nearly all the hyped QBs and haven't given a 1st or 2nd round grade to any QB yet."
via Twitter
I was almost beginning to think it was only me on an island. I don't see a QB worthy of #6.
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Can prevent a leak and Eric and JonC don't know who they want until AFTER they actually pick him.
That would be a refreshing change.
I can keep a lid on it, if you prefer.
Not me....direction would be fine.
Agreed. Wait till 2020, especially if we're talking about trading up. These prospects aren't worth it.
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Can prevent a leak and Eric and JonC don't know who they want until AFTER they actually pick him.
That would be a refreshing change.
I can keep a lid on it, if you prefer.
Lou had a little too much wine. You keep doing what you do. We appreciate it.
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Can prevent a leak and Eric and JonC don't know who they want until AFTER they actually pick him.
That would be a refreshing change.
I can keep a lid on it, if you prefer.
Ignore him.
but, didn't they have you stumped last year? I recall you saying the ship had been sealed a lot tighter and there were fewer leaks.
It must have just been me.
but, didn't they have you stumped last year? I recall you saying the ship had been sealed a lot tighter and there were fewer leaks.
I shared their top 3 not long after the Combine, and before the media got it. What wasn't clear until late in the process was actual QB interest, which I was told late it would only be Darnold and probably only after a trade down. They were locked into SB, Chubb, and Nelson in that order, so the trade down wasn't likely.
Beyond that, I heard very little on QB interest.
Do what you do, buddy.