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NFT: Yanks Talk - 2/10 - Pitchers/Catchers Week, Projecting Luke

arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 11:49 am
Only 3 days away from pitchers and catchers - kind of the "unofficial" start of the 2019 campaign.

RAB did a bit on Voit. Obviously the sample was small, but he was an absolute beast. Hit for average, hit for power. It was some explosion onto the scene and it basically made Bird a forgotten man.

Now that the smoke is all clear and we know that Voit clearly benefitted from a small sample, pitchers not really knowing his cold zones well enough, a BABIP over .380, and did struggle a bit with the flamethrowers.... we can also look at the other side of the coin.

Voit's BABIP is clearly not sustainable, BUT - sometimes hitters make their own BABIP luck more than others with consistently hard, solid contact that finds ways into open spaces in the field. The statcast data seems to suggest that is certainly part of Voit's number.

Certain numbers will obviously depend on how many games he plays (counting stats like HR's, RBI's, etc) - and I'm guessing his average will dip down around .265 if he gets more extensive playing time. But, I think if he were to start ~120 games, we'd be able to pencil him in for 20-25 HR's.

Glove is bad - to be a 1.9 fWAR player in just ~50 games tells you just how insanely hot he was with the bat.

Bird is running out of time, so if he wants to get back into the picture, he's going to need Voit to start slow and find a way to at least play his way into some sort of platoon.

Curious as to what everyone else is expecting from Voit this year. Smoke a mirrors? Real deal? Somewhere in between?
The bat may be real enough...  
Dunedin81 : 2/10/2019 11:50 am : link
But he had the worst glove on the field, and that includes Andujar.
gut feeling  
viggie : 2/10/2019 11:51 am : link
Manny M to 3rd, Miggy A to first solves alot of problems.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 11:57 am : link
Yep, glove is a problem. I suppose we could once in a while use him in the DH spot and have Stanton play LF - but that's going to depend on how often they're looking to use Andujar there.

I guess what it boils down to is... how good does Voit need to be with the stick for us to deal with the glove? Obviously it was more than sufficient last year. The poor defense didn't kill his value because he was literally one of the best hitters in baseball through his hot streak. But we know the production at the plate wasn't completely sustainable and that won't be the case over the course of a full year.

Of course, if Harper comes - that changes things. But as of now, I think we can operate under the assumption that this is the team we're going into camp and the season with.
Bird  
davek3698 : 2/10/2019 12:02 pm : link
Curious to see what a healthy, motivated Bird does this spring. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he takes the starting role back.
Voit  
Dave in PA : 2/10/2019 12:11 pm : link
Hes the biggest unknown coming into the year. Some of his stats are unsustainable (1.069 OPS and 40.5% HR/FB), however his spray chart is encouraging (21%, 38%, 41% LF/CF/RF) and his 47% hard hit rate could be duplicated. Well see how the league adjusts to his weaknesses and his ability to answer back. Voit could be anywhere from a forgotten man by July to an integral 5th or 6th hitter. Who the heck knows.
Sorry to miller the thread but  
Jints in Carolina : 2/10/2019 12:15 pm : link
are the SF Giants really going to sign Bryce Harper?
RE: Sorry to miller the thread but  
arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 12:16 pm : link
In comment 14292295 Jints in Carolina said:
Quote:
are the SF Giants really going to sign Bryce Harper?


They're certainly in the mix - I don't believe anything is imminent, though.
.  
Danny Kanell : 2/10/2019 12:23 pm : link
While it was fun, Im not remotely sold on Voit. I know its a long shot but I really wish Bird could figure it out. Gun to my head, I think the long term 1B solution isnt currently in the organization.
Actually a bunch of 'starts" reported early  
Jay in Toronto : 2/10/2019 12:45 pm : link
which is a nice sign.

Rooting for Bird (and his L bat and sweet swing) is my main focus :)
RE: Voit  
HomerJones45 : 2/10/2019 12:48 pm : link
In comment 14292289 Dave in PA said:
Quote:
Hes the biggest unknown coming into the year. Some of his stats are unsustainable (1.069 OPS and 40.5% HR/FB), however his spray chart is encouraging (21%, 38%, 41% LF/CF/RF) and his 47% hard hit rate could be duplicated. Well see how the league adjusts to his weaknesses and his ability to answer back. Voit could be anywhere from a forgotten man by July to an integral 5th or 6th hitter. Who the heck knows.
a lot of it is unsustainable. His BABIP with the Yankees was the highest of his career including the minors. On a .304 BABIP with the Cards, he hit .246. He struck out in 25% of his plate appearances, which is just a few points over his career norm. Striking out that much indicates that the BABIP and BA are totally unsustainable. His slugging percentage with the Yanks was 100 points higher than his best in the minors and he never cracked 20 HR's even in the minors.

Don't let expectations get out of whack with this guy. The vast chances are he reverts back to what he is: a .260 hitter, bad fielder with occasional power that the Cards were willing to off for a couple of ham and egg relief pitchers.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 12:53 pm : link
I'd say we probably all universally agree that Voit's 2018 numbers are unsustainable.

So really, it's a question of how far he drops off from there.

I was all about sticking with Bird last year and letting him figure it oit but Voit didn't allow that to happen down the stretch.

Birdy needs a strong camp/ST big time.

I'd love for him to finally put it together.
RE: RE: Voit  
Deejboy : 2/10/2019 1:38 pm : link
In comment 14292329 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
In comment 14292289 Dave in PA said:


Quote:


Hes the biggest unknown coming into the year. Some of his stats are unsustainable (1.069 OPS and 40.5% HR/FB), however his spray chart is encouraging (21%, 38%, 41% LF/CF/RF) and his 47% hard hit rate could be duplicated. Well see how the league adjusts to his weaknesses and his ability to answer back. Voit could be anywhere from a forgotten man by July to an integral 5th or 6th hitter. Who the heck knows.

a lot of it is unsustainable. His BABIP with the Yankees was the highest of his career including the minors. On a .304 BABIP with the Cards, he hit .246. He struck out in 25% of his plate appearances, which is just a few points over his career norm. Striking out that much indicates that the BABIP and BA are totally unsustainable. His slugging percentage with the Yanks was 100 points higher than his best in the minors and he never cracked 20 HR's even in the minors.

Don't let expectations get out of whack with this guy. The vast chances are he reverts back to what he is: a .260 hitter, bad fielder with occasional power that the Cards were willing to off for a couple of ham and egg relief pitchers.

The Yankees didn't stumbled across Voit. He lead all minor league players in exit velocity and hard contact rate in 2017. In his small sample size with the Cardinals those numbers transferred over the the majors. So with Matt Carpenter and a similar player in Matt Adams at 1B, there was no room for Voit and the Yankees pounced. The Yankees just didn't look at his AAA numbers and think hey maybe he we can catch lightening in a bottle here. They did a ton of advanced scouting on him and his season last year didn't come out of nowhere to the Yankees who knew what he might be capable of.

There are also vast chances this is a guy who hits the ball tremendously hard(among the best in baseball) and has greatly improved his pitch recognition and plate disciple. And that translates into a very good to potentially great hitter. The tools are there and he actually proved it at the big league level and now must maintain it.
Do they have options on Voit ?  
Ron from Ninerland : 2/10/2019 2:10 pm : link
I don't see how they keep both on the 25 man roster so I'm wondering how this shakes out. If they decide that Voit "wins the completion" its the end for Bird. But if Bird wins the completion or if they're close, can they option Voit to AAA ?
Yankees are a better team if Bird can get back  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 2/10/2019 2:23 pm : link
to being what he once looked like he would be - the best all around hitter on the team. He is a better first baseman than Voit. It is just a shame that Bird has had so many setbacks.
Voit and Bird could both be on Opening Day roster  
shyster : 2/10/2019 2:50 pm : link
with Frazier sent to Scranton.

Carrying two guys who only play 1B probably will get awkward at some point during the season, particularly if Frazier makes his case.

Came across the linked analysis of Voit at the time of last summer's trade, which supports the view that what he went on to do with the Yanks was not in fact a flash.

Point one: While Voit's 2017 major league batting numbers were mediocre on surface, his exit velocity was elite.

Point two: In 2018, back in AAA, he got off to a slow start while dealing with oblique injury, then was just about the best hitter in AAA in June/July before the trade to Yanks.

Thus the article's prescient headline: "Yanks just traded for one of baseball's hottest hitters."

Do wish Voit was a better fielder, particularly because a reliable 1B could only help Andujar's confidence.

If only Stanton wasn't clogging DH.
p alley - ( New Window )
RE: Yankees are a better team if Bird can get back  
Beer Man : 2/10/2019 2:59 pm : link
In comment 14292390 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
Quote:
to being what he once looked like he would be - the best all around hitter on the team. He is a better first baseman than Voit. It is just a shame that Bird has had so many setbacks.
He had a lot of trouble with the shift last year. Hopefully he has been practicing hitting to all fields
Until recently I had really not cared too  
chopperhatch : 2/10/2019 4:34 pm : link
Much about Machado or Harper. However, the infield uncertainty really comcerns me. Getting Machado can allow us to trade Andujar, or, my preference, move him to 1B. Grabbing Harper and making him a 1B adds a huge lefty bat to our lineup.

The fielding at first and the lack of left handed hitting in our line up, especially without Didi really bothers me.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 4:42 pm : link
The defense concerns me too. Probably the only real worry I have about the Yanks right now.

They added DJ to mitigate that a bit, but the problem is that his natural position is the only one in the IF that's already the most stable with Torres. I'd feel better if DJ had more experience playing the corners - but I'm sure he can handle 3B if need be.

Still... Machado remains an option and one that makes a good deal of sense. Machado + Didi would be a fantastic defensive left side to have in October.

I really wish the fits were easier with Machado OR Harper. Signing either guy creates a bit of an odd positional glut.

I'd still just sign one and figure the rest out later, personally.
RE: .  
section125 : 2/10/2019 4:53 pm : link
In comment 14292331 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I'd say we probably all universally agree that Voit's 2018 numbers are unsustainable.

So really, it's a question of how far he drops off from there.

I was all about sticking with Bird last year and letting him figure it oit but Voit didn't allow that to happen down the stretch.

Birdy needs a strong camp/ST big time.

I'd love for him to finally put it together.


arc, said it a few times in other threads - I saw Bird limping still in September after at bats. I'm not sure he was truly pain free last year which would really kill his batting if he could not pivot on the ankle.

FWIW, I think Voit is the real deal hitting. Hits to all fields with equal power and contact. He's not going to bat .330, not many do. .270 or so and 25 -30 hrs is realistic. His hole was high heat. Supposedly he dropped 15 lbs, so maybe he picks up some bat speed. Thing about high heat, umpires rarely call strikes up there and except for Verlander not many can repeat fastballs in the high strike zone consistently.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 5:40 pm : link
Honestly, I just want one of the two to grab the spot by the balls and never look back. Doesn't matter which one it is. NYY have had trouble getting good production out of the 1B spot in recent years (sans the insane Voit streak) - so we really need someone to step up.
RE: RE: Voit  
rich in DC : 2/10/2019 7:51 pm : link
In comment 14292329 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
In comment 14292289 Dave in PA said:


Quote:


Hes the biggest unknown coming into the year. Some of his stats are unsustainable (1.069 OPS and 40.5% HR/FB), however his spray chart is encouraging (21%, 38%, 41% LF/CF/RF) and his 47% hard hit rate could be duplicated. Well see how the league adjusts to his weaknesses and his ability to answer back. Voit could be anywhere from a forgotten man by July to an integral 5th or 6th hitter. Who the heck knows.

a lot of it is unsustainable. His BABIP with the Yankees was the highest of his career including the minors. On a .304 BABIP with the Cards, he hit .246. He struck out in 25% of his plate appearances, which is just a few points over his career norm. Striking out that much indicates that the BABIP and BA are totally unsustainable. His slugging percentage with the Yanks was 100 points higher than his best in the minors and he never cracked 20 HR's even in the minors.

Don't let expectations get out of whack with this guy. The vast chances are he reverts back to what he is: a .260 hitter, bad fielder with occasional power that the Cards were willing to off for a couple of ham and egg relief pitchers.


Except that Voit was NEVER a .260 hitter. Voit only has a couple hundred ML ABs- but does have a lengthy minor league record over 2200+ ABs.

In fact, since A ball, the light appeared to have come on for Voit. Except for a rather poor 124 AB run with the Cardinals in 2017, all other stops since 2016 show a guy who hits close to .300 BA with a high OBP and a SLG over .475 (usually over .500).

In other words, the 2017 ML numbers with the Cardinals are actually the outlier here statistically- good on the Yanks analytics people for recognizing that and staying on him.

There is likely no way that he can repeat his August-September 2018 numbers over a whole season or career. However, the underlying numbers show a player who likely can carry a good BA, excellent OBP and SLG percentages and is willing to "go the other way" with the ball.

In Yankee Stadium, that likely adds up to an above-average offensive 1B. Probably not All Star level, unless he has another 2 month hot streak in him, but able to be a productive member of a powerful lineup.
Thanks  
Bill2 : 2/10/2019 9:49 pm : link
Rich
Voit made a big impression on a lot of baseball people  
idinkido : 2/11/2019 5:22 am : link
because he knows the strike zone. The guy is a good hitter, and, in fact, makes a lot more contact than Bird. Bird was horrible last season and his swing was slow. His ceiling: lots of power IF he makes contact but a LOW average hitter. Void is the real deal. Yankees trading away Andujar or Voit is insane. The Yankees need a really good starting pitcher. Hopefully there is one in their minor league system that can make the big jump to the majors this season if a starter goes down. The interesting thing about Andujar is that when he shifted over to the right side of the infield, he looked natural as a second baseman, flashing speed. as well.
If Bird is healthy...  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2019 8:39 am : link
his swing, while somewhat long, is plenty powerful and he has some of the best strike zone discipline in the bigs. He's also a lefty on a team that is remarkably righty-dominant. His glove is also much, much better than Voit (not elite by any means, but league average versus butcher-like). He desperately needs to get through ST healthy and demonstrate that last year was the fluke, not his playoff performance the year before.

I like Voit, I think there's certainly enough there after the flash in the pan to justify his getting a long look, but this is a very good offensive team that may lose more on defense than it gains from getting .270/25/80 from 1B.
When dont the Yankee assets get hyped  
NJ_GIANTS : 2/11/2019 10:42 am : link
They are always pumped up by the marketing machine.. hes an ok player.. Bird needs to get healthy.. but it wouldnt surprise me of they both get traded after they have a decent spring.. I still like the idea of signing Harper, rotate the 4 OFs.. Garner is bench.. start working Harper at 1st. The reason to keep muggy at 3rd is he has a strong arm.. give the kid time.. he seems dedicated to improving..
Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
Strahan91 : 2/11/2019 11:07 am : link
according to Martino. The longer this goes on the more likely one would think it becomes that the Yankees can get him on their terms.
Link - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 2/11/2019 11:17 am : link
Live look in at Cashman...

I find this comment to be odd.  
Strahan91 : 2/11/2019 11:22 am : link
We're not talking about Andrelton Simmons here...

Andy Martino
Verified account
@martinonyc
50m50 minutes ago
More Andy Martino Retweeted SNY
Yankees are comfortable with Andujar at first if need be, but under no circumstances will anyone other than Troy Tulowitzki get first crack at starting SS job, per sourcesAndy Martino added,
They really do seem to be way, way too optimistic about Tulowitzki  
Greg from LI : 2/11/2019 11:25 am : link
Hasn't played in almost 2 years and was pure garbage the last time he did play.
RE: I find this comment to be odd.  
arcarsenal : 2/11/2019 11:35 am : link
In comment 14293186 Strahan91 said:
Quote:
We're not talking about Andrelton Simmons here...

Andy Martino
Verified account
@martinonyc
50m50 minutes ago
More Andy Martino Retweeted SNY
Yankees are comfortable with Andujar at first if need be, but under no circumstances will anyone other than Troy Tulowitzki get first crack at starting SS job, per sourcesAndy Martino added,


So weird.

It's Troy Tulowitzki, it's not 2014, and the Yanks don't play @ Coors. Why the confidence and faith?
The Tulo noise  
Phil in LA : 2/11/2019 11:56 am : link
is just pressure.
RE: They really do seem to be way, way too optimistic about Tulowitzki  
rich in DC : 2/11/2019 12:02 pm : link
In comment 14293191 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Hasn't played in almost 2 years and was pure garbage the last time he did play.


You have a tendency to use drastic hyperbole, especially when the facts don't back you up.

In 2017, Tulo was injured (ergo, the double heel surgery), and only played in 66 games. His offense was lacking- only a .249 BA and .300 OBP. Even then, he still had a 0.1 oWAR- together with a 0.4 dWAR. His OPS was an 80- not goo, but driven mostly by poor hitting.

However, when we look at 2016 (heck, we could chose any season that is not 2017)- he put up an OPS over 100- in fact, he had an OPS over 100 for every full season of his career except 2008.

It should also be noted that except for 2012, Tulo had a positive defensive WAR, which is why he has two Gold Gloves at SS.

It might not be 2010 anymore, but lets dispense with the hyperbole and look at facts. If the Yanks bring in Machado (a move I have admittedly been pushing and hoping for since last spring training on this site), I have no problem with leaving Tulo at SS. He is easily the best defensive SS on the team- especially since he had the bone spurs removed from both heels and should be very healthy.

I don't think we see peak Tulo (2009-2014), but it would not be a surprise to see 2015-2016 Tulo. If he is league average with the bat and above average with the glove, that gets them what they need until Didi can get back- and gives them the luxury of not having to rush Didi- making sure Didi is right offensively and defensively.

People forget that ARod came back from his hip surgery and suspension- missing almost a year and a half of play- and was very good- surprisingly so. Remember as well that ARod was 39 at the time- Tulo is only 34. A year and change off for Tulo is probably a good thing.

REAL stats, not hyperbole on Tulo - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 2/11/2019 12:05 pm : link
I am 1000% fine with Tulo being signed and here and all of that - I think he's a good gamble for cheap.

I'm just not sure why the Yanks seem to be insistent on making sure it's known that he has that job right now. Especially when he's really just holding it until Didi is back later on.

I guess it was part of signing him - perhaps other teams had interest and the Yanks promised him the SS job out of camp to nudge him here.

I have no idea what to expect from him. I'd just be nervous about any strategy reliant on him staying healthy and producing.
RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
rich in DC : 2/11/2019 12:09 pm : link
In comment 14293166 Strahan91 said:
Quote:
according to Martino. The longer this goes on the more likely one would think it becomes that the Yankees can get him on their terms. Link - ( New Window )


I would like Machado as a Yankee. It would have a big impact on the INF defense, though I wonder what other moves have to be made.

I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.

On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?

I think it is too late in the day for the Yanks to make a big trade for a top end SP using Andujar- P and C report this week and I don't think many teams want to shake up things with their rotations because few replacement options exist at this time.
RE: .  
rich in DC : 2/11/2019 12:14 pm : link
In comment 14293243 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
I am 1000% fine with Tulo being signed and here and all of that - I think he's a good gamble for cheap.

I'm just not sure why the Yanks seem to be insistent on making sure it's known that he has that job right now. Especially when he's really just holding it until Didi is back later on.

I guess it was part of signing him - perhaps other teams had interest and the Yanks promised him the SS job out of camp to nudge him here.

I have no idea what to expect from him. I'd just be nervous about any strategy reliant on him staying healthy and producing.


This last paragraph is the best argument against Tulo. He has rarely been healthy.

On the other hand, Torres can be moved to SS and DJ dropped in at 2B without impacting the rest of the team too much. However, I think that is an option the Yanks don't want to try too much of- as Torres had issues at SS last year. A lot of them seemed to be the result of poor concentration, or maybe just inexperience.

The Yanks want to contend for the World Series. I think that after last year, there is an understanding that the best path would be to win the division and make the Red Sox play the Wild Card game. Unless Torres has dramatically matured emotionally over the off-season, the Yanks need a steadier defensive hand at SS to hold off the Sox until Didi returns.

If Didi returns around ASB, maybe he misses 100 games? If Tulo can play 80, is that enough?
he stunk in 2015 after leaving Coors, too  
Greg from LI : 2/11/2019 12:23 pm : link
.239/.317/.380. He also hasn't played anything close to a full season since 143 games in 2011. Since then: 47 games, 126 games, 91 games, 128 games, 131 games, 66 games. You think he's suddenly going to become the picture of health at age 34 AND play well after missing a year and a half? He's a lottery ticket at best and should not simply be installed as a starter.
Could Tulo be fine?  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2019 12:30 pm : link
Sure. But that's an age at which most shortstops slow down, and he's coming off of foot surgery, and he's struggled to stay healthy for some time now. Tough to rely on that.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/11/2019 12:37 pm : link
Rich - I think if we can get 80 out of Tulo, I'd be happy. Not sure if we will or not, but I do agree DJ was brought in as Tulo insurance since we'd then be able to slide Torres over and use DJ @ 2B.

Torres @ SS isn't exactly ideal, but he should be able to play there for a few games in a pinch.

Machado would offer additional flexibility and protection, so I'm hoping that Cash keeps circling back around if he stays out there in the pool and that we can ultimately get him here on our terms.
Didi / Tulo  
JPinstripes : 2/11/2019 12:47 pm : link
Bryan Hoch
‏Verified account @BryanHoch
5m5 minutes ago

Didi Gregorius did some light tossing and fielded ground balls alongside Troy Tulowitzki. Ive played against the guy for a while. I know what hes capable of.
Torres had the defensive chops of a potential plus SS...  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2019 12:53 pm : link
SS was the vast majority of is MILB reps. He can absolutely play short.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/11/2019 12:57 pm : link
I actually thought Gley's positional split was more even in the minors - I didn't realize he played so much more SS @ the lower levels before he was traded here.

So, yeah DJ does make more sense for that reason - and that should work until Didi gets back if Tulo doesn't pan out and Machado goes elsewhere.
Until Didi returns  
JPinstripes : 2/11/2019 1:06 pm : link
Plan A Tulo SS and Torres at 2B

Plan B Torres at SS and DJ at 2B

Plan C is Wade or a current FA in the mix for SS/2B in the event of multiple player injuries before Didi returns.

I think NYY is covered.
That might be plan A  
Greg from LI : 2/11/2019 1:30 pm : link
But they had better be prepared to pull the plug on Tulowitzki quickly if he doesn't cut it. My fear is that he struggles and they keep running him out there to struggle for a long time because they think he's just rusty.
RE: That might be plan A  
Dunedin81 : 2/11/2019 1:31 pm : link
In comment 14293373 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
But they had better be prepared to pull the plug on Tulowitzki quickly if he doesn't cut it. My fear is that he struggles and they keep running him out there to struggle for a long time because they think he's just rusty.


Agreed. They don't have much money invested in him, but they have invested far more (public) confidence than his last 2-3 years would seem to warrant.
RE: Torres had the defensive chops of a potential plus SS...  
Deejboy : 2/11/2019 1:34 pm : link
In comment 14293322 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
SS was the vast majority of is MILB reps. He can absolutely play short.

He put on a lot of muscle since then. At one time he was projected as a 10-15 homerun guy. He hit 24 in 400 major league abs last year. He is a much bigger guy and as fluid as he once was.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/11/2019 5:41 pm : link
Yanks expected to ink Jason Dominguez per RAB/Axisa

Awesome news.
RE: Voit made a big impression on a lot of baseball people  
shyster : 2/11/2019 6:01 pm : link
In comment 14292892 idinkido said:
Quote:
because he knows the strike zone.


Per my post above in this thread, I see reasons to be optimistic about Voit the hitter, but "knows the strike zone" wouldn't be on my line A.

39 SOs and 15BBs in 148 PAs with NYY doesn't really remind of Wade Boggs or peak Barry B.

My impression of Voit is that he had a tendency to "guess take". This makes you look good when the pitcher misses, but really foolish when you gaze at strike three down the middle.

Saw the latter more than once from Voit and it's something that virtually never happens to the true pitch recognition gods.

An area in which he can improve.
RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
section125 : 2/11/2019 6:45 pm : link
In comment 14293257 rich in DC said:
Quote:


I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.

On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?



rich, Andujar has no problem fielding the ball. His errors are from throwing. So I disagree that Andujar could not field at first. We do not know if he can dig balls out of the dirt, granted, and that is not easy to do. The best make it look easy, the worst botch it (Voit and to some degree Bird).

FWIW, Harper will not be better than Andujar at first - he is not an infielder and Andujar is "used" to hammered balls coming his way.

Defensively, the Yanks are dicey to say the least.
RE: RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
chopperhatch : 2/11/2019 6:51 pm : link
In comment 14293741 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14293257 rich in DC said:


Quote:




I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.

On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?





rich, Andujar has no problem fielding the ball. His errors are from throwing. So I disagree that Andujar could not field at first. We do not know if he can dig balls out of the dirt, granted, and that is not easy to do. The best make it look easy, the worst botch it (Voit and to some degree Bird).

FWIW, Harper will not be better than Andujar at first - he is not an infielder and Andujar is "used" to hammered balls coming his way.

Defensively, the Yanks are dicey to say the least.


Bam. And making the throw to 2nd from first is generally a lot easier than from third when you are generally in a hurry to get the ball to 2nd when you are trying to turn 2 or if a runner is bearing down on you. Not to mention throwing across the entire diamond to 1st
RE: RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
rich in DC : 2/11/2019 6:53 pm : link
In comment 14293741 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14293257 rich in DC said:


Quote:




I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.

On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?





rich, Andujar has no problem fielding the ball. His errors are from throwing. So I disagree that Andujar could not field at first. We do not know if he can dig balls out of the dirt, granted, and that is not easy to do. The best make it look easy, the worst botch it (Voit and to some degree Bird).

FWIW, Harper will not be better than Andujar at first - he is not an infielder and Andujar is "used" to hammered balls coming his way.

Defensively, the Yanks are dicey to say the least.


Andujar has a HUGE problem fielding the ball- the metrics show that he has the range of a phone booth. VERY little ability to move laterally or getting to bouncers. The reason that he doesn't get errors on those balls is that he never gets to them period.

I don't see how moving him to 1B helps that. He could be a real liability on pick-off plays or anything hit in the 1B/2B hole.

Personally, I think I would prefer Andujar to be the DH and Voit to be the 1B. At least Voit knows what to do out there and has experience doing it. Voit is still a terrible defensive 1B, but he isn't going to hurt you with inexperience or bad positioning like Andujar probably will.

I sure hope that the Yanks gave Voit some sort of isometrics plan or something to improve his quick twitch reflexes.
I find it amazing and disappointing that Rothschild hasn't met with  
yatqb : 2/11/2019 8:40 pm : link
Severino already and discussed how he was tipping pitches. But it sure appears that he hasn't.


Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
section125 : 2/11/2019 8:42 pm : link
In comment 14293747 rich in DC said:
Quote:

Andujar has a HUGE problem fielding the ball- the metrics show that he has the range of a phone booth. VERY little ability to move laterally or getting to bouncers. The reason that he doesn't get errors on those balls is that he never gets to them period.

I don't see how moving him to 1B helps that. He could be a real liability on pick-off plays or anything hit in the 1B/2B hole.

Personally, I think I would prefer Andujar to be the DH and Voit to be the 1B. At least Voit knows what to do out there and has experience doing it. Voit is still a terrible defensive 1B, but he isn't going to hurt you with inexperience or bad positioning like Andujar probably will.

I sure hope that the Yanks gave Voit some sort of isometrics plan or something to improve his quick twitch reflexes.


Still disagree. I probably watched well over 120 games, maybe closer to 140 games last year. I'm sure he booted more than a couple balls, but what I remember was he caught everything he got his glove on but the the scary part was the throw which was frightful/painful every time - I think he was afraid to throw it.

Something like being bad at fielding a grounder I would have noticed. Range, can't argue with the metrics, the numbers are the numbers, except I did not find the range reprehensible. Maybe Didi covered him so much I just did not notice. I normally see what I see and the throws got worse as the year went on. Whatever, he isn't about the win a GG anytime soon.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
rich in DC : 2/11/2019 8:51 pm : link
In comment 14293860 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14293747 rich in DC said:


Quote:



Andujar has a HUGE problem fielding the ball- the metrics show that he has the range of a phone booth. VERY little ability to move laterally or getting to bouncers. The reason that he doesn't get errors on those balls is that he never gets to them period.

I don't see how moving him to 1B helps that. He could be a real liability on pick-off plays or anything hit in the 1B/2B hole.

Personally, I think I would prefer Andujar to be the DH and Voit to be the 1B. At least Voit knows what to do out there and has experience doing it. Voit is still a terrible defensive 1B, but he isn't going to hurt you with inexperience or bad positioning like Andujar probably will.

I sure hope that the Yanks gave Voit some sort of isometrics plan or something to improve his quick twitch reflexes.



Still disagree. I probably watched well over 120 games, maybe closer to 140 games last year. I'm sure he booted more than a couple balls, but what I remember was he caught everything he got his glove on but the the scary part was the throw which was frightful/painful every time - I think he was afraid to throw it.

Something like being bad at fielding a grounder I would have noticed. Range, can't argue with the metrics, the numbers are the numbers, except I did not find the range reprehensible. Maybe Didi covered him so much I just did not notice. I normally see what I see and the throws got worse as the year went on. Whatever, he isn't about the win a GG anytime soon.


I remember years ago when Cal Ripken was playing SS- and people often wondered how a player that big could get to all the balls in play that he did. It came down to defensive positioning- pre-analytics days. He knew what the pitcher was throwing and positioned himself accordingly.

Today, with all the numbers and advanced information they have, why doesn't someone give Andujar a cheat sheet he can put in his cap or pocket to set himself for every batter, depending on the pitch? Sometimes just a single step to one side or the other can make all the difference.

As for the throwing, you are right there- I think one of the problems is that he developed a bad habit (apparently in the minors because scouting reports mention it several years back) or dropping his throwing angle and looping it over sidearm.

I think that someone just needs to make him take a million grounders over there and make the drill to throw it over the top and hard to 1B- and every time he drops the throwing angle, he has to field an extra 10 grounders. One would think that muscle memory would eventually take over and make it automatic to go over the top after enough of that drill.

Something has to change, or he will likely not be long for the Yanks.
Andujar's problem  
davek3698 : 2/11/2019 9:52 pm : link
is his reaction time, which has been discussed extensively by the team. His arm is quite strong, though his mechanics tend to get lazy sometimes. He is generously listed at 6', likely a few inches shortly. Not the ideal target over at 1B.
If Andujar  
JPinstripes : 2/11/2019 10:03 pm : link
can't learn a quick catch and release motion on his throws to 1B he will not be a NYY 3B for long next year.

I love his bat, but he looks horrid in the field - awkward throwing motion.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/13/2019 9:47 am : link
Report day is here!

Getting closer to the 2019 campaign. Exciting times.

Record predictions?

I say 98-64, but I think this team will be a little better than last year's.
I'd guess 95-100 wins...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 10:08 am : link
more if the rotation stays particularly healthy and they "solve" the middle IF in the absence of Didi, less if they have significant rotation health issues and one or the other of SS or 2B is an offensive black hole.
Ells hurt again.  
JPinstripes : 2/13/2019 2:12 pm : link
CC taking it slow and pitching prospect Michael King has elbow stress.

Ellsbury is that horse that needs to be taken out to the back of the shed.... I venture insurance money is the primary reason he is still on NYY.

Randy Miller
‏Verified account @RandyJMiller
2m2 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone just wrapped up his first news conference of the spring. It lasted 32 minutes. The biggest news was Jacoby Ellsbury being hurt again and back in Arizona, CC Sabathia maybe starting season on DL and prospect Michael King being hurt.
Ellsbury's insurance likely lapses after this season...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 2:14 pm : link
at which time they'll almost certainly cut him because he'll be prohibitive to ensure, if he's insurable at all.
Ellsbury getting "hurt" again  
RasputinPrime : 2/13/2019 2:22 pm : link
really cheeses me off because I in no way believe it to be true. I think both sides know he is never going to take the field again for the Yankees but will continue to play ball for the club.
You think an insurance policy will pay millions...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 2:38 pm : link
for a fake injury?
RE: You think an insurance policy will pay millions...  
RasputinPrime : 2/13/2019 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14295767 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
for a fake injury?


absolutely not. i'd like to know how someone can be this chronically injured and have a peak for myself. I can't think of another Mr. Glass since I started watching baseball.
We all thought they were milking it last year...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 2:53 pm : link
and then he had a torn labrum in his hip.
It's Clint Frazier time folks  
JPinstripes : 2/13/2019 2:56 pm : link
This is Red Thunder's year to be healthy and show why he was a 5th overall draft selection in 2013.

The kid has legit 20 HR+, 20 SB and 40 double potential.
It's not "getting" hurt again with Ellsbury  
shyster : 2/13/2019 2:58 pm : link
It's the same plantar fasciitis he was dealing with all of last year.

Previous tweet by Randy Miller in his thread:


Randy Miller
‏Verified account @RandyJMiller
53m53 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Jacoby Ellsbury wont be in camp initially. His foot injury last season slowed his rehab over the winter. Hes staying home in Arizona for awhile.

Carl Pavano is still my champ for Mr. Glass. And I doubt Ellsbury will go on to have the post-Yankees career that Pavano did.
RE: It's not  
mitch300 : 2/13/2019 3:27 pm : link
In comment 14295802 shyster said:
Quote:
It's the same plantar fasciitis he was dealing with all of last year.

Previous tweet by Randy Miller in his thread:


Randy Miller
Verified account @RandyJMiller
53m53 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Jacoby Ellsbury wont be in camp initially. His foot injury last season slowed his rehab over the winter. Hes staying home in Arizona for awhile.

Carl Pavano is still my champ for Mr. Glass. And I doubt Ellsbury will go on to have the post-Yankees career that Pavano did.

So Yanks don't have any trainers or doctors that know how to handle PF? Sounds fishy to me. Even if he is injured, why not still come to camp.
RE: We all thought they were milking it last year...  
RasputinPrime : 2/13/2019 8:06 pm : link
In comment 14295792 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
and then he had a torn labrum in his hip.


plantar fasciitis is what we are being told and he is staying home to get treatment....
Pinstripes is correct.  
idinkido : 2/17/2019 2:50 pm : link
Andujar is slow getting the ball out of his glove and getting his throw off in time. His fielding and coverage at third is serviceable.
Andujar  
davek3698 : 2/18/2019 11:29 am : link
defense work
work - ( New Window )
Another good article on his work  
davek3698 : 2/21/2019 1:16 pm : link
effort is there
range - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 2/21/2019 1:22 pm : link
Maybe it'll be Davis Webb-ian - and maybe it'll just be a lot of hard work that reaps no real benefit - but no one can say Miggy isn't committed. I'm kind of glad there's no Machado hanging over him. I want to see him at least get a shot to succeed even if I am not terribly confident in 3B being his long-term position.

I am confident in his ability at the plate, though. He has a big league bat. He'll find his home somewhere on the diamond. Ideally he can stick @ 3B. If not, so be it.
RE: RE: It's not  
section125 : 2/21/2019 1:25 pm : link
In comment 14295831 mitch300 said:
Quote:
In comment 14295802 shyster said:


Quote:


It's the same plantar fasciitis he was dealing with all of last year.

Previous tweet by Randy Miller in his thread:


Randy Miller
Verified account @RandyJMiller
53m53 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Jacoby Ellsbury wont be in camp initially. His foot injury last season slowed his rehab over the winter. Hes staying home in Arizona for awhile.

Carl Pavano is still my champ for Mr. Glass. And I doubt Ellsbury will go on to have the post-Yankees career that Pavano did.


So Yanks don't have any trainers or doctors that know how to handle PF? Sounds fishy to me. Even if he is injured, why not still come to camp.


There is a Yanks trainer working with him. The Yanks thought he'd get the best re-hab where he can work 6 to 8 hrs per day as per Cashman.
I'm not going to savage Ellsbury...  
Dunedin81 : 2/21/2019 3:00 pm : link
he's had injuries in his career - in his Yankee career - from playing too hard. It's not his fault the Yankees outbid themselves for his services. But I'll be happy when he's no longer clogging up a roster spot next year.
...Long is 2 or 2  
RasputinPrime : 2/21/2019 3:56 pm : link
with 2 doubles in the first preseason game today.
Haha the Long hype train begins...  
Dunedin81 : 2/21/2019 4:12 pm : link
Josh Stowers should report shortly; hopefully we'll have a hype train for him too.
RE: ...Long is 2 or 2  
mitch300 : 2/21/2019 4:16 pm : link
In comment 14302630 RasputinPrime said:
Quote:
with 2 doubles in the first preseason game today.

Who is Long? The Yanks haven't started spring training games yet.
Shed Long was the guy we got for Sonny Gray...  
Dunedin81 : 2/21/2019 4:21 pm : link
we flipped him to the Mariners for Josh Stowers.
RE: ...Long is 2 or 2  
arcarsenal : 2/21/2019 4:59 pm : link
In comment 14302630 RasputinPrime said:
Quote:
with 2 doubles in the first preseason game today.


Today, I will... shed a tear.... for the one that got away.
RE: Shed Long was the guy we got for Sonny Gray...  
RasputinPrime : 2/21/2019 6:34 pm : link
In comment 14302648 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
we flipped him to the Mariners for Josh Stowers.


From what i've read it made sense for us to flip him for Stowers. No issues with the move. It's amazing how many former Yankees are in spring-training with the M's.
The early appraisals of Kevin Alcantara...  
Dunedin81 : 2/22/2019 8:46 am : link
are quite good, on par with or a little better (in some cases) than the evals of Everson Pereira last year. He's supposedly 6'6" and 190, so there isn't a clear comp for him in terms of size and athleticism (maybe Winfield as an upside?).
idinkido  
arniefez : 2/22/2019 9:16 am : link
Total nonsense. There's not a single metric that suggests Andujar's range is "serviceable". It's actually among the worst in MLB history since they started keeping defensive metrics.

There were 19 3B's that played over 900 innings in the field last year. Andujar ranked 19th in UZR/150. The 18th worst was closer to 1st than Andujar was to 18th.

Devers on the Red Sox was 16th overall and benched for his glove at times last year (and his bat too). He was pretty terrible at 3B.

He made 16% of unlikely outs and 48% of 50/50 plays.

Andujar made 7% of unlikely outs and 11% of 50/50 plays. A high School kid could probably do better than that.
MLB 3B Fielding - ( New Window )
The problem with the range stats...  
Dunedin81 : 2/22/2019 9:18 am : link
is that, as I understand them, they don't capture what balls he gets to, they capture whether he records outs on those balls. Thus a problem with transfer and a late throw or a willingness to eat the ball instead of risking a bad throw looks the same on UZR as if he wasn't nimble enough to get to a ball.
arnie: Thanks for the stats and they do back up what you're saying.  
idinkido : 2/26/2019 7:15 am : link
I didn't focus on Andujar's fielding last season as most did here. I didn't think he was a Clint Boyer and did think he was a bit better that the Red Sox's Devers. Andujar has speed but that doesn't always transfer over as a third baseman because quickness is more important. The Yankees think that Andujar sank to low in his stance and worked to correct it this off season, focusing on getting him to acquire a little hop out of his stance.
RE: The problem with the range stats...  
section125 : 2/26/2019 7:39 am : link
In comment 14303040 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
is that, as I understand them, they don't capture what balls he gets to, they capture whether he records outs on those balls. Thus a problem with transfer and a late throw or a willingness to eat the ball instead of risking a bad throw looks the same on UZR as if he wasn't nimble enough to get to a ball.


Exactly. He gets to balls. He catches what he gets to. He makes terrible throws or just eats it. Sometimes your eyeballs tell you something that a metric does not. What I saw was not a player who could not catch or get to balls, but a guy that was off balance making throws, or uncertain on how to set up to throw. As the season went on, he got worse - like the yips. And he never delivered the ball the same way. He would make some throws over the top, or three quarter or sometimes side arm. Inconsistent delivery.

What they are doing with him, making him move with the pitch, that is step toward the plate as the pitch is thrown, or take a skip, will make him more agile. If you stand still, you are momentarily frozen. Kay said yesterday that they determined he squatted prior to the pitch and could not get the initial step until late, like his feet were cemented to the ground.

I'm not sure it can be corrected quickly. But he does not appear to be unathletic - so he may be able to make incremental gains monthly and annually. Maybe the light goes on and it comes to him quickly, but IMO, he is fighting two issues - movement(set up) and confidently making throws. They may be related or they may be independent of each other. Maybe by getting the pre-pitch set up solved, the throws become natural....
^ this bullshit  
arniefez : 2/26/2019 8:00 am : link
eye test, advance public metrics whatever you want to use he doesn't get to anything. Almost any ground ball near 3B is a hit. The only thing he gets too is soft contact hit right at him.
RE: ^ this bullshit  
Dunedin81 : 2/26/2019 8:21 am : link
In comment 14306811 arniefez said:
Quote:
eye test, advance public metrics whatever you want to use he doesn't get to anything. Almost any ground ball near 3B is a hit. The only thing he gets too is soft contact hit right at him.


You're insufferable. Bet you're a ton of fun at parties.
RE: ^ this bullshit  
section125 : 2/26/2019 8:30 am : link
In comment 14306811 arniefez said:
Quote:
eye test, advance public metrics whatever you want to use he doesn't get to anything. Almost any ground ball near 3B is a hit. The only thing he gets too is soft contact hit right at him.


Good, yep, metrics tell the whole story. Unfailingly accurate, even when Dune tells you of the fault in the analysis.
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