Only 3 days away from pitchers and catchers - kind of the "unofficial" start of the 2019 campaign.
RAB did a bit on Voit. Obviously the sample was small, but he was an absolute beast. Hit for average, hit for power. It was some explosion onto the scene and it basically made Bird a forgotten man.
Now that the smoke is all clear and we know that Voit clearly benefitted from a small sample, pitchers not really knowing his cold zones well enough, a BABIP over .380, and did struggle a bit with the flamethrowers.... we can also look at the other side of the coin.
Voit's BABIP is clearly not sustainable, BUT - sometimes hitters make their own BABIP luck more than others with consistently hard, solid contact that finds ways into open spaces in the field. The statcast data seems to suggest that is certainly part of Voit's number.
Certain numbers will obviously depend on how many games he plays (counting stats like HR's, RBI's, etc) - and I'm guessing his average will dip down around .265 if he gets more extensive playing time. But, I think if he were to start ~120 games, we'd be able to pencil him in for 20-25 HR's.
Glove is bad - to be a 1.9 fWAR player in just ~50 games tells you just how insanely hot he was with the bat.
Bird is running out of time, so if he wants to get back into the picture, he's going to need Voit to start slow and find a way to at least play his way into some sort of platoon.
Curious as to what everyone else is expecting from Voit this year. Smoke a mirrors? Real deal? Somewhere in between?
I guess what it boils down to is... how good does Voit need to be with the stick for us to deal with the glove? Obviously it was more than sufficient last year. The poor defense didn't kill his value because he was literally one of the best hitters in baseball through his hot streak. But we know the production at the plate wasn't completely sustainable and that won't be the case over the course of a full year.
Of course, if Harper comes - that changes things. But as of now, I think we can operate under the assumption that this is the team we're going into camp and the season with.
They're certainly in the mix - I don't believe anything is imminent, though.
Rooting for Bird (and his L bat and sweet swing) is my main focus :)
Don't let expectations get out of whack with this guy. The vast chances are he reverts back to what he is: a .260 hitter, bad fielder with occasional power that the Cards were willing to off for a couple of ham and egg relief pitchers.
So really, it's a question of how far he drops off from there.
I was all about sticking with Bird last year and letting him figure it oit but Voit didn't allow that to happen down the stretch.
Birdy needs a strong camp/ST big time.
I'd love for him to finally put it together.
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Hes the biggest unknown coming into the year. Some of his stats are unsustainable (1.069 OPS and 40.5% HR/FB), however his spray chart is encouraging (21%, 38%, 41% LF/CF/RF) and his 47% hard hit rate could be duplicated. Well see how the league adjusts to his weaknesses and his ability to answer back. Voit could be anywhere from a forgotten man by July to an integral 5th or 6th hitter. Who the heck knows.
a lot of it is unsustainable. His BABIP with the Yankees was the highest of his career including the minors. On a .304 BABIP with the Cards, he hit .246. He struck out in 25% of his plate appearances, which is just a few points over his career norm. Striking out that much indicates that the BABIP and BA are totally unsustainable. His slugging percentage with the Yanks was 100 points higher than his best in the minors and he never cracked 20 HR's even in the minors.
Don't let expectations get out of whack with this guy. The vast chances are he reverts back to what he is: a .260 hitter, bad fielder with occasional power that the Cards were willing to off for a couple of ham and egg relief pitchers.
The Yankees didn't stumbled across Voit. He lead all minor league players in exit velocity and hard contact rate in 2017. In his small sample size with the Cardinals those numbers transferred over the the majors. So with Matt Carpenter and a similar player in Matt Adams at 1B, there was no room for Voit and the Yankees pounced. The Yankees just didn't look at his AAA numbers and think hey maybe he we can catch lightening in a bottle here. They did a ton of advanced scouting on him and his season last year didn't come out of nowhere to the Yankees who knew what he might be capable of.
There are also vast chances this is a guy who hits the ball tremendously hard(among the best in baseball) and has greatly improved his pitch recognition and plate disciple. And that translates into a very good to potentially great hitter. The tools are there and he actually proved it at the big league level and now must maintain it.
Carrying two guys who only play 1B probably will get awkward at some point during the season, particularly if Frazier makes his case.
Came across the linked analysis of Voit at the time of last summer's trade, which supports the view that what he went on to do with the Yanks was not in fact a flash.
Point one: While Voit's 2017 major league batting numbers were mediocre on surface, his exit velocity was elite.
Point two: In 2018, back in AAA, he got off to a slow start while dealing with oblique injury, then was just about the best hitter in AAA in June/July before the trade to Yanks.
Thus the article's prescient headline: "Yanks just traded for one of baseball's hottest hitters."
Do wish Voit was a better fielder, particularly because a reliable 1B could only help Andujar's confidence.
If only Stanton wasn't clogging DH.
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The fielding at first and the lack of left handed hitting in our line up, especially without Didi really bothers me.
They added DJ to mitigate that a bit, but the problem is that his natural position is the only one in the IF that's already the most stable with Torres. I'd feel better if DJ had more experience playing the corners - but I'm sure he can handle 3B if need be.
Still... Machado remains an option and one that makes a good deal of sense. Machado + Didi would be a fantastic defensive left side to have in October.
I really wish the fits were easier with Machado OR Harper. Signing either guy creates a bit of an odd positional glut.
I'd still just sign one and figure the rest out later, personally.
So really, it's a question of how far he drops off from there.
I was all about sticking with Bird last year and letting him figure it oit but Voit didn't allow that to happen down the stretch.
Birdy needs a strong camp/ST big time.
I'd love for him to finally put it together.
arc, said it a few times in other threads - I saw Bird limping still in September after at bats. I'm not sure he was truly pain free last year which would really kill his batting if he could not pivot on the ankle.
FWIW, I think Voit is the real deal hitting. Hits to all fields with equal power and contact. He's not going to bat .330, not many do. .270 or so and 25 -30 hrs is realistic. His hole was high heat. Supposedly he dropped 15 lbs, so maybe he picks up some bat speed. Thing about high heat, umpires rarely call strikes up there and except for Verlander not many can repeat fastballs in the high strike zone consistently.
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Hes the biggest unknown coming into the year. Some of his stats are unsustainable (1.069 OPS and 40.5% HR/FB), however his spray chart is encouraging (21%, 38%, 41% LF/CF/RF) and his 47% hard hit rate could be duplicated. Well see how the league adjusts to his weaknesses and his ability to answer back. Voit could be anywhere from a forgotten man by July to an integral 5th or 6th hitter. Who the heck knows.
a lot of it is unsustainable. His BABIP with the Yankees was the highest of his career including the minors. On a .304 BABIP with the Cards, he hit .246. He struck out in 25% of his plate appearances, which is just a few points over his career norm. Striking out that much indicates that the BABIP and BA are totally unsustainable. His slugging percentage with the Yanks was 100 points higher than his best in the minors and he never cracked 20 HR's even in the minors.
Don't let expectations get out of whack with this guy. The vast chances are he reverts back to what he is: a .260 hitter, bad fielder with occasional power that the Cards were willing to off for a couple of ham and egg relief pitchers.
Except that Voit was NEVER a .260 hitter. Voit only has a couple hundred ML ABs- but does have a lengthy minor league record over 2200+ ABs.
In fact, since A ball, the light appeared to have come on for Voit. Except for a rather poor 124 AB run with the Cardinals in 2017, all other stops since 2016 show a guy who hits close to .300 BA with a high OBP and a SLG over .475 (usually over .500).
In other words, the 2017 ML numbers with the Cardinals are actually the outlier here statistically- good on the Yanks analytics people for recognizing that and staying on him.
There is likely no way that he can repeat his August-September 2018 numbers over a whole season or career. However, the underlying numbers show a player who likely can carry a good BA, excellent OBP and SLG percentages and is willing to "go the other way" with the ball.
In Yankee Stadium, that likely adds up to an above-average offensive 1B. Probably not All Star level, unless he has another 2 month hot streak in him, but able to be a productive member of a powerful lineup.
I like Voit, I think there's certainly enough there after the flash in the pan to justify his getting a long look, but this is a very good offensive team that may lose more on defense than it gains from getting .270/25/80 from 1B.
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Andy Martino
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Yankees are comfortable with Andujar at first if need be, but under no circumstances will anyone other than Troy Tulowitzki get first crack at starting SS job, per sourcesAndy Martino added,
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Yankees are comfortable with Andujar at first if need be, but under no circumstances will anyone other than Troy Tulowitzki get first crack at starting SS job, per sourcesAndy Martino added,
So weird.
It's Troy Tulowitzki, it's not 2014, and the Yanks don't play @ Coors. Why the confidence and faith?
You have a tendency to use drastic hyperbole, especially when the facts don't back you up.
In 2017, Tulo was injured (ergo, the double heel surgery), and only played in 66 games. His offense was lacking- only a .249 BA and .300 OBP. Even then, he still had a 0.1 oWAR- together with a 0.4 dWAR. His OPS was an 80- not goo, but driven mostly by poor hitting.
However, when we look at 2016 (heck, we could chose any season that is not 2017)- he put up an OPS over 100- in fact, he had an OPS over 100 for every full season of his career except 2008.
It should also be noted that except for 2012, Tulo had a positive defensive WAR, which is why he has two Gold Gloves at SS.
It might not be 2010 anymore, but lets dispense with the hyperbole and look at facts. If the Yanks bring in Machado (a move I have admittedly been pushing and hoping for since last spring training on this site), I have no problem with leaving Tulo at SS. He is easily the best defensive SS on the team- especially since he had the bone spurs removed from both heels and should be very healthy.
I don't think we see peak Tulo (2009-2014), but it would not be a surprise to see 2015-2016 Tulo. If he is league average with the bat and above average with the glove, that gets them what they need until Didi can get back- and gives them the luxury of not having to rush Didi- making sure Didi is right offensively and defensively.
People forget that ARod came back from his hip surgery and suspension- missing almost a year and a half of play- and was very good- surprisingly so. Remember as well that ARod was 39 at the time- Tulo is only 34. A year and change off for Tulo is probably a good thing.
REAL stats, not hyperbole on Tulo - ( New Window )
I'm just not sure why the Yanks seem to be insistent on making sure it's known that he has that job right now. Especially when he's really just holding it until Didi is back later on.
I guess it was part of signing him - perhaps other teams had interest and the Yanks promised him the SS job out of camp to nudge him here.
I have no idea what to expect from him. I'd just be nervous about any strategy reliant on him staying healthy and producing.
I would like Machado as a Yankee. It would have a big impact on the INF defense, though I wonder what other moves have to be made.
I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.
On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?
I think it is too late in the day for the Yanks to make a big trade for a top end SP using Andujar- P and C report this week and I don't think many teams want to shake up things with their rotations because few replacement options exist at this time.
I'm just not sure why the Yanks seem to be insistent on making sure it's known that he has that job right now. Especially when he's really just holding it until Didi is back later on.
I guess it was part of signing him - perhaps other teams had interest and the Yanks promised him the SS job out of camp to nudge him here.
I have no idea what to expect from him. I'd just be nervous about any strategy reliant on him staying healthy and producing.
This last paragraph is the best argument against Tulo. He has rarely been healthy.
On the other hand, Torres can be moved to SS and DJ dropped in at 2B without impacting the rest of the team too much. However, I think that is an option the Yanks don't want to try too much of- as Torres had issues at SS last year. A lot of them seemed to be the result of poor concentration, or maybe just inexperience.
The Yanks want to contend for the World Series. I think that after last year, there is an understanding that the best path would be to win the division and make the Red Sox play the Wild Card game. Unless Torres has dramatically matured emotionally over the off-season, the Yanks need a steadier defensive hand at SS to hold off the Sox until Didi returns.
If Didi returns around ASB, maybe he misses 100 games? If Tulo can play 80, is that enough?
Torres @ SS isn't exactly ideal, but he should be able to play there for a few games in a pinch.
Machado would offer additional flexibility and protection, so I'm hoping that Cash keeps circling back around if he stays out there in the pool and that we can ultimately get him here on our terms.
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Didi Gregorius did some light tossing and fielded ground balls alongside Troy Tulowitzki. Ive played against the guy for a while. I know what hes capable of.
So, yeah DJ does make more sense for that reason - and that should work until Didi gets back if Tulo doesn't pan out and Machado goes elsewhere.
Plan B Torres at SS and DJ at 2B
Plan C is Wade or a current FA in the mix for SS/2B in the event of multiple player injuries before Didi returns.
I think NYY is covered.
Agreed. They don't have much money invested in him, but they have invested far more (public) confidence than his last 2-3 years would seem to warrant.
He put on a lot of muscle since then. At one time he was projected as a 10-15 homerun guy. He hit 24 in 400 major league abs last year. He is a much bigger guy and as fluid as he once was.
Awesome news.
Per my post above in this thread, I see reasons to be optimistic about Voit the hitter, but "knows the strike zone" wouldn't be on my line A.
39 SOs and 15BBs in 148 PAs with NYY doesn't really remind of Wade Boggs or peak Barry B.
My impression of Voit is that he had a tendency to "guess take". This makes you look good when the pitcher misses, but really foolish when you gaze at strike three down the middle.
Saw the latter more than once from Voit and it's something that virtually never happens to the true pitch recognition gods.
An area in which he can improve.
I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.
On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?
rich, Andujar has no problem fielding the ball. His errors are from throwing. So I disagree that Andujar could not field at first. We do not know if he can dig balls out of the dirt, granted, and that is not easy to do. The best make it look easy, the worst botch it (Voit and to some degree Bird).
FWIW, Harper will not be better than Andujar at first - he is not an infielder and Andujar is "used" to hammered balls coming his way.
Defensively, the Yanks are dicey to say the least.
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I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.
On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?
rich, Andujar has no problem fielding the ball. His errors are from throwing. So I disagree that Andujar could not field at first. We do not know if he can dig balls out of the dirt, granted, and that is not easy to do. The best make it look easy, the worst botch it (Voit and to some degree Bird).
FWIW, Harper will not be better than Andujar at first - he is not an infielder and Andujar is "used" to hammered balls coming his way.
Defensively, the Yanks are dicey to say the least.
Bam. And making the throw to 2nd from first is generally a lot easier than from third when you are generally in a hurry to get the ball to 2nd when you are trying to turn 2 or if a runner is bearing down on you. Not to mention throwing across the entire diamond to 1st
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I am not sure that the Yanks can just put Andujar at 1B- he has never played there. As Voit has demonstrated, you can't just put a bad defensive player at 1B and think that will solve your problems. A bad defensive 3B (especially one that struggles with handling bouncers and having lateral movements) is still going to be a bad defensive 1B.
On the other hand, if the move puts Voit/Bird at DH and Stanton in LF, MAYBE that is good? The Yanks would lose some defensive coverage from Gardner (very good) to Stanton (likely average in LF)- but maybe the defensive improvement at 3B from Machado (Gold Glove defense) to Andujar (awful defense) pays for Andujar at 1B (unclear- maybe bad? maybe adequate? I don't know) to Voit (terrible)?
rich, Andujar has no problem fielding the ball. His errors are from throwing. So I disagree that Andujar could not field at first. We do not know if he can dig balls out of the dirt, granted, and that is not easy to do. The best make it look easy, the worst botch it (Voit and to some degree Bird).
FWIW, Harper will not be better than Andujar at first - he is not an infielder and Andujar is "used" to hammered balls coming his way.
Defensively, the Yanks are dicey to say the least.
Andujar has a HUGE problem fielding the ball- the metrics show that he has the range of a phone booth. VERY little ability to move laterally or getting to bouncers. The reason that he doesn't get errors on those balls is that he never gets to them period.
I don't see how moving him to 1B helps that. He could be a real liability on pick-off plays or anything hit in the 1B/2B hole.
Personally, I think I would prefer Andujar to be the DH and Voit to be the 1B. At least Voit knows what to do out there and has experience doing it. Voit is still a terrible defensive 1B, but he isn't going to hurt you with inexperience or bad positioning like Andujar probably will.
I sure hope that the Yanks gave Voit some sort of isometrics plan or something to improve his quick twitch reflexes.