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NFT: Yanks Talk - 2/10 - Pitchers/Catchers Week, Projecting Luke

arcarsenal : 2/10/2019 11:49 am
Only 3 days away from pitchers and catchers - kind of the "unofficial" start of the 2019 campaign.

RAB did a bit on Voit. Obviously the sample was small, but he was an absolute beast. Hit for average, hit for power. It was some explosion onto the scene and it basically made Bird a forgotten man.

Now that the smoke is all clear and we know that Voit clearly benefitted from a small sample, pitchers not really knowing his cold zones well enough, a BABIP over .380, and did struggle a bit with the flamethrowers.... we can also look at the other side of the coin.

Voit's BABIP is clearly not sustainable, BUT - sometimes hitters make their own BABIP luck more than others with consistently hard, solid contact that finds ways into open spaces in the field. The statcast data seems to suggest that is certainly part of Voit's number.

Certain numbers will obviously depend on how many games he plays (counting stats like HR's, RBI's, etc) - and I'm guessing his average will dip down around .265 if he gets more extensive playing time. But, I think if he were to start ~120 games, we'd be able to pencil him in for 20-25 HR's.

Glove is bad - to be a 1.9 fWAR player in just ~50 games tells you just how insanely hot he was with the bat.

Bird is running out of time, so if he wants to get back into the picture, he's going to need Voit to start slow and find a way to at least play his way into some sort of platoon.

Curious as to what everyone else is expecting from Voit this year. Smoke a mirrors? Real deal? Somewhere in between?
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I find it amazing and disappointing that Rothschild hasn't met with  
yatqb : 2/11/2019 8:40 pm : link
Severino already and discussed how he was tipping pitches. But it sure appears that he hasn't.


Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
section125 : 2/11/2019 8:42 pm : link
In comment 14293747 rich in DC said:
Quote:

Andujar has a HUGE problem fielding the ball- the metrics show that he has the range of a phone booth. VERY little ability to move laterally or getting to bouncers. The reason that he doesn't get errors on those balls is that he never gets to them period.

I don't see how moving him to 1B helps that. He could be a real liability on pick-off plays or anything hit in the 1B/2B hole.

Personally, I think I would prefer Andujar to be the DH and Voit to be the 1B. At least Voit knows what to do out there and has experience doing it. Voit is still a terrible defensive 1B, but he isn't going to hurt you with inexperience or bad positioning like Andujar probably will.

I sure hope that the Yanks gave Voit some sort of isometrics plan or something to improve his quick twitch reflexes.


Still disagree. I probably watched well over 120 games, maybe closer to 140 games last year. I'm sure he booted more than a couple balls, but what I remember was he caught everything he got his glove on but the the scary part was the throw which was frightful/painful every time - I think he was afraid to throw it.

Something like being bad at fielding a grounder I would have noticed. Range, can't argue with the metrics, the numbers are the numbers, except I did not find the range reprehensible. Maybe Didi covered him so much I just did not notice. I normally see what I see and the throws got worse as the year went on. Whatever, he isn't about the win a GG anytime soon.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Yankees still hanging around the hoop on Machado  
rich in DC : 2/11/2019 8:51 pm : link
In comment 14293860 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14293747 rich in DC said:


Quote:



Andujar has a HUGE problem fielding the ball- the metrics show that he has the range of a phone booth. VERY little ability to move laterally or getting to bouncers. The reason that he doesn't get errors on those balls is that he never gets to them period.

I don't see how moving him to 1B helps that. He could be a real liability on pick-off plays or anything hit in the 1B/2B hole.

Personally, I think I would prefer Andujar to be the DH and Voit to be the 1B. At least Voit knows what to do out there and has experience doing it. Voit is still a terrible defensive 1B, but he isn't going to hurt you with inexperience or bad positioning like Andujar probably will.

I sure hope that the Yanks gave Voit some sort of isometrics plan or something to improve his quick twitch reflexes.



Still disagree. I probably watched well over 120 games, maybe closer to 140 games last year. I'm sure he booted more than a couple balls, but what I remember was he caught everything he got his glove on but the the scary part was the throw which was frightful/painful every time - I think he was afraid to throw it.

Something like being bad at fielding a grounder I would have noticed. Range, can't argue with the metrics, the numbers are the numbers, except I did not find the range reprehensible. Maybe Didi covered him so much I just did not notice. I normally see what I see and the throws got worse as the year went on. Whatever, he isn't about the win a GG anytime soon.


I remember years ago when Cal Ripken was playing SS- and people often wondered how a player that big could get to all the balls in play that he did. It came down to defensive positioning- pre-analytics days. He knew what the pitcher was throwing and positioned himself accordingly.

Today, with all the numbers and advanced information they have, why doesn't someone give Andujar a cheat sheet he can put in his cap or pocket to set himself for every batter, depending on the pitch? Sometimes just a single step to one side or the other can make all the difference.

As for the throwing, you are right there- I think one of the problems is that he developed a bad habit (apparently in the minors because scouting reports mention it several years back) or dropping his throwing angle and looping it over sidearm.

I think that someone just needs to make him take a million grounders over there and make the drill to throw it over the top and hard to 1B- and every time he drops the throwing angle, he has to field an extra 10 grounders. One would think that muscle memory would eventually take over and make it automatic to go over the top after enough of that drill.

Something has to change, or he will likely not be long for the Yanks.
Andujar's problem  
davek3698 : 2/11/2019 9:52 pm : link
is his reaction time, which has been discussed extensively by the team. His arm is quite strong, though his mechanics tend to get lazy sometimes. He is generously listed at 6', likely a few inches shortly. Not the ideal target over at 1B.
If Andujar  
JPinstripes : 2/11/2019 10:03 pm : link
can't learn a quick catch and release motion on his throws to 1B he will not be a NYY 3B for long next year.

I love his bat, but he looks horrid in the field - awkward throwing motion.
.  
arcarsenal : 2/13/2019 9:47 am : link
Report day is here!

Getting closer to the 2019 campaign. Exciting times.

Record predictions?

I say 98-64, but I think this team will be a little better than last year's.
I'd guess 95-100 wins...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 10:08 am : link
more if the rotation stays particularly healthy and they "solve" the middle IF in the absence of Didi, less if they have significant rotation health issues and one or the other of SS or 2B is an offensive black hole.
Ells hurt again.  
JPinstripes : 2/13/2019 2:12 pm : link
CC taking it slow and pitching prospect Michael King has elbow stress.

Ellsbury is that horse that needs to be taken out to the back of the shed.... I venture insurance money is the primary reason he is still on NYY.

Randy Miller
‏Verified account @RandyJMiller
2m2 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone just wrapped up his first news conference of the spring. It lasted 32 minutes. The biggest news was Jacoby Ellsbury being hurt again and back in Arizona, CC Sabathia maybe starting season on DL and prospect Michael King being hurt.
Ellsbury's insurance likely lapses after this season...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 2:14 pm : link
at which time they'll almost certainly cut him because he'll be prohibitive to ensure, if he's insurable at all.
Ellsbury getting "hurt" again  
RasputinPrime : 2/13/2019 2:22 pm : link
really cheeses me off because I in no way believe it to be true. I think both sides know he is never going to take the field again for the Yankees but will continue to play ball for the club.
You think an insurance policy will pay millions...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 2:38 pm : link
for a fake injury?
RE: You think an insurance policy will pay millions...  
RasputinPrime : 2/13/2019 2:49 pm : link
In comment 14295767 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
for a fake injury?


absolutely not. i'd like to know how someone can be this chronically injured and have a peak for myself. I can't think of another Mr. Glass since I started watching baseball.
We all thought they were milking it last year...  
Dunedin81 : 2/13/2019 2:53 pm : link
and then he had a torn labrum in his hip.
It's Clint Frazier time folks  
JPinstripes : 2/13/2019 2:56 pm : link
This is Red Thunder's year to be healthy and show why he was a 5th overall draft selection in 2013.

The kid has legit 20 HR+, 20 SB and 40 double potential.
It's not "getting" hurt again with Ellsbury  
shyster : 2/13/2019 2:58 pm : link
It's the same plantar fasciitis he was dealing with all of last year.

Previous tweet by Randy Miller in his thread:


Randy Miller
‏Verified account @RandyJMiller
53m53 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Jacoby Ellsbury wont be in camp initially. His foot injury last season slowed his rehab over the winter. Hes staying home in Arizona for awhile.

Carl Pavano is still my champ for Mr. Glass. And I doubt Ellsbury will go on to have the post-Yankees career that Pavano did.
RE: It's not  
mitch300 : 2/13/2019 3:27 pm : link
In comment 14295802 shyster said:
Quote:
It's the same plantar fasciitis he was dealing with all of last year.

Previous tweet by Randy Miller in his thread:


Randy Miller
Verified account @RandyJMiller
53m53 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Jacoby Ellsbury wont be in camp initially. His foot injury last season slowed his rehab over the winter. Hes staying home in Arizona for awhile.

Carl Pavano is still my champ for Mr. Glass. And I doubt Ellsbury will go on to have the post-Yankees career that Pavano did.

So Yanks don't have any trainers or doctors that know how to handle PF? Sounds fishy to me. Even if he is injured, why not still come to camp.
RE: We all thought they were milking it last year...  
RasputinPrime : 2/13/2019 8:06 pm : link
In comment 14295792 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
and then he had a torn labrum in his hip.


plantar fasciitis is what we are being told and he is staying home to get treatment....
Pinstripes is correct.  
idinkido : 2/17/2019 2:50 pm : link
Andujar is slow getting the ball out of his glove and getting his throw off in time. His fielding and coverage at third is serviceable.
Andujar  
davek3698 : 2/18/2019 11:29 am : link
defense work
work - ( New Window )
Another good article on his work  
davek3698 : 2/21/2019 1:16 pm : link
effort is there
range - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 2/21/2019 1:22 pm : link
Maybe it'll be Davis Webb-ian - and maybe it'll just be a lot of hard work that reaps no real benefit - but no one can say Miggy isn't committed. I'm kind of glad there's no Machado hanging over him. I want to see him at least get a shot to succeed even if I am not terribly confident in 3B being his long-term position.

I am confident in his ability at the plate, though. He has a big league bat. He'll find his home somewhere on the diamond. Ideally he can stick @ 3B. If not, so be it.
RE: RE: It's not  
section125 : 2/21/2019 1:25 pm : link
In comment 14295831 mitch300 said:
Quote:
In comment 14295802 shyster said:


Quote:


It's the same plantar fasciitis he was dealing with all of last year.

Previous tweet by Randy Miller in his thread:


Randy Miller
Verified account @RandyJMiller
53m53 minutes ago

#Yankees manager Aaron Boone says Jacoby Ellsbury wont be in camp initially. His foot injury last season slowed his rehab over the winter. Hes staying home in Arizona for awhile.

Carl Pavano is still my champ for Mr. Glass. And I doubt Ellsbury will go on to have the post-Yankees career that Pavano did.


So Yanks don't have any trainers or doctors that know how to handle PF? Sounds fishy to me. Even if he is injured, why not still come to camp.


There is a Yanks trainer working with him. The Yanks thought he'd get the best re-hab where he can work 6 to 8 hrs per day as per Cashman.
I'm not going to savage Ellsbury...  
Dunedin81 : 2/21/2019 3:00 pm : link
he's had injuries in his career - in his Yankee career - from playing too hard. It's not his fault the Yankees outbid themselves for his services. But I'll be happy when he's no longer clogging up a roster spot next year.
...Long is 2 or 2  
RasputinPrime : 2/21/2019 3:56 pm : link
with 2 doubles in the first preseason game today.
Haha the Long hype train begins...  
Dunedin81 : 2/21/2019 4:12 pm : link
Josh Stowers should report shortly; hopefully we'll have a hype train for him too.
RE: ...Long is 2 or 2  
mitch300 : 2/21/2019 4:16 pm : link
In comment 14302630 RasputinPrime said:
Quote:
with 2 doubles in the first preseason game today.

Who is Long? The Yanks haven't started spring training games yet.
Shed Long was the guy we got for Sonny Gray...  
Dunedin81 : 2/21/2019 4:21 pm : link
we flipped him to the Mariners for Josh Stowers.
RE: ...Long is 2 or 2  
arcarsenal : 2/21/2019 4:59 pm : link
In comment 14302630 RasputinPrime said:
Quote:
with 2 doubles in the first preseason game today.


Today, I will... shed a tear.... for the one that got away.
RE: Shed Long was the guy we got for Sonny Gray...  
RasputinPrime : 2/21/2019 6:34 pm : link
In comment 14302648 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
we flipped him to the Mariners for Josh Stowers.


From what i've read it made sense for us to flip him for Stowers. No issues with the move. It's amazing how many former Yankees are in spring-training with the M's.
The early appraisals of Kevin Alcantara...  
Dunedin81 : 2/22/2019 8:46 am : link
are quite good, on par with or a little better (in some cases) than the evals of Everson Pereira last year. He's supposedly 6'6" and 190, so there isn't a clear comp for him in terms of size and athleticism (maybe Winfield as an upside?).
idinkido  
arniefez : 2/22/2019 9:16 am : link
Total nonsense. There's not a single metric that suggests Andujar's range is "serviceable". It's actually among the worst in MLB history since they started keeping defensive metrics.

There were 19 3B's that played over 900 innings in the field last year. Andujar ranked 19th in UZR/150. The 18th worst was closer to 1st than Andujar was to 18th.

Devers on the Red Sox was 16th overall and benched for his glove at times last year (and his bat too). He was pretty terrible at 3B.

He made 16% of unlikely outs and 48% of 50/50 plays.

Andujar made 7% of unlikely outs and 11% of 50/50 plays. A high School kid could probably do better than that.
MLB 3B Fielding - ( New Window )
The problem with the range stats...  
Dunedin81 : 2/22/2019 9:18 am : link
is that, as I understand them, they don't capture what balls he gets to, they capture whether he records outs on those balls. Thus a problem with transfer and a late throw or a willingness to eat the ball instead of risking a bad throw looks the same on UZR as if he wasn't nimble enough to get to a ball.
arnie: Thanks for the stats and they do back up what you're saying.  
idinkido : 2/26/2019 7:15 am : link
I didn't focus on Andujar's fielding last season as most did here. I didn't think he was a Clint Boyer and did think he was a bit better that the Red Sox's Devers. Andujar has speed but that doesn't always transfer over as a third baseman because quickness is more important. The Yankees think that Andujar sank to low in his stance and worked to correct it this off season, focusing on getting him to acquire a little hop out of his stance.
RE: The problem with the range stats...  
section125 : 2/26/2019 7:39 am : link
In comment 14303040 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
is that, as I understand them, they don't capture what balls he gets to, they capture whether he records outs on those balls. Thus a problem with transfer and a late throw or a willingness to eat the ball instead of risking a bad throw looks the same on UZR as if he wasn't nimble enough to get to a ball.


Exactly. He gets to balls. He catches what he gets to. He makes terrible throws or just eats it. Sometimes your eyeballs tell you something that a metric does not. What I saw was not a player who could not catch or get to balls, but a guy that was off balance making throws, or uncertain on how to set up to throw. As the season went on, he got worse - like the yips. And he never delivered the ball the same way. He would make some throws over the top, or three quarter or sometimes side arm. Inconsistent delivery.

What they are doing with him, making him move with the pitch, that is step toward the plate as the pitch is thrown, or take a skip, will make him more agile. If you stand still, you are momentarily frozen. Kay said yesterday that they determined he squatted prior to the pitch and could not get the initial step until late, like his feet were cemented to the ground.

I'm not sure it can be corrected quickly. But he does not appear to be unathletic - so he may be able to make incremental gains monthly and annually. Maybe the light goes on and it comes to him quickly, but IMO, he is fighting two issues - movement(set up) and confidently making throws. They may be related or they may be independent of each other. Maybe by getting the pre-pitch set up solved, the throws become natural....
^ this bullshit  
arniefez : 2/26/2019 8:00 am : link
eye test, advance public metrics whatever you want to use he doesn't get to anything. Almost any ground ball near 3B is a hit. The only thing he gets too is soft contact hit right at him.
RE: ^ this bullshit  
Dunedin81 : 2/26/2019 8:21 am : link
In comment 14306811 arniefez said:
Quote:
eye test, advance public metrics whatever you want to use he doesn't get to anything. Almost any ground ball near 3B is a hit. The only thing he gets too is soft contact hit right at him.


You're insufferable. Bet you're a ton of fun at parties.
RE: ^ this bullshit  
section125 : 2/26/2019 8:30 am : link
In comment 14306811 arniefez said:
Quote:
eye test, advance public metrics whatever you want to use he doesn't get to anything. Almost any ground ball near 3B is a hit. The only thing he gets too is soft contact hit right at him.


Good, yep, metrics tell the whole story. Unfailingly accurate, even when Dune tells you of the fault in the analysis.
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