NFT: Mets talk: P & Cs

Buckholz best fit as being our NY Mets:

Clay Buchholz: Mets
Limited to just two starts in 2017 due to a partially torn flexor pronator mass, the 34-year-old Buchholz is still without a 30-start campaign to his name despite spending the better part of 12 seasons in the majors. Last year, after opting out of a minor league deal with the Royals, Buchholz resurfaced with the D-backs and assembled a half-season performance not unlike his tantalizing 2013 and ’15 ones: 16 starts, 98.1 innings, 15.0% K-BB%, with a 2.01 ERA and a 3.47 FIP. Alas, he suffered another flexor strain on September 13, and he was shut down for the year after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection.



Obviously, Buchholz isn’t going to provide anyone with 200 innings, but he’s capable of being an average-or-better starter if healthy, and thus rates as being worth a flier. He was in contact with the Rangers earlier this winter, but no deal panned out. To these eyes, he’d make more sense for a contender like the Mets — and with 85 projected wins, it’s fair to call them that. On the strength of a front four of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler, their rotation is projected to be the majors’ seventh-best, but while that group was healthy enough to combine for 116 starts last year, it’s worth remembering that in 2017, they were available for just 68. What’s more, their fifth starter right now remains Jason Vargas, who was torched for a 5.77 ERA and a 5.02 FIP in 20 starts last year. Even if he can’t match last season’s performance, Buchholz should be able to outdo whatever Vargas and nominal sixth starter Hector Santiago can provide, without breaking the bank.


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-homes-for-a-few-more-unsigned-free-agents/ - ( New Window )

been pushing for Buchholz

do you see him as the 5th starter, or long man, or somewhere in between with Vargas.

Personally, and I've been thinking about this a decent amount, I might be more open to adding another reliever and moving Lugo into the rotation.

Lugo, in my opinion, has #3 starter upside and really lengthens out the rotation. Why not add someone like Warren or Madsen, move Lugo to rotation.

I wonder if there might be a trade target for a set-up man, I know it might be pricey, but would love to grab Leclerc from Texas. I know Brodie had talks back at the winter meetings with the Rangers. I wonder if we could package something for him.

In comment 14295017 CMicks3110 said:

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do you see him as the 5th starter, or long man, or somewhere in between with Vargas. Personally, and I've been thinking about this a decent amount, I might be more open to adding another reliever and moving Lugo into the rotation. Lugo, in my opinion, has #3 starter upside and really lengthens out the rotation. Why not add someone like Warren or Madsen, move Lugo to rotation. I wonder if there might be a trade target for a set-up man, I know it might be pricey, but would love to grab Leclerc from Texas. I know Brodie had talks back at the winter meetings with the Rangers. I wonder if we could package something for him.

I'd be all about Lugo in the rotatiom but if not yeah i'd give Buchholtz first shot. His cutter was dominant last year.

Mets are in the drivers seat. deGrom will be a 33 year old free agent and its not like he's in the last year of control even yet. The deGrom deal almost certainly ends up a bad one for the Mets anyway. I personally would wrap up Syndergaard long term before I worried about deGrom.

That said this is all posturing and the deGrom deal gets done this spring. 99% chance.

I posted this last summer but essentially same as what Shecky posted. One of my best friends is an ortho surgeon who has done multiple surgeries on that level of athlete (will not get more specific than that), but essentially said removing the Achilles to remove the calcification is fairly serious especially if they are doing both but that 8-10 months is too long. Had it closer to 5-6.

That is why the notion that cespedes will be out all year is only accurate if cespedes wants it to be accurate. The other thing to consider is that insurance isn’t going to pay if someone is medically cleared but trying to game the system. So there are factors at play for multiple parties.

That unless there was some crazy abnormality in that surgery there is no medical reason why he couldn’t be ready by April May. After Conforto last year + Cespedes’s unique personality you get the conservative timeline of all star break to the vagaries of all season. The Mets clearly don’t know what to expect from him emotionally and want to maintain a consistent record for insurance purposes when/if his questionable work ethic arises. For purposes of discussing from a fans perspective it means nothing because there is an enormous gradient of outcomes, but know that a July or all season outcome is not supported by the medical community

I had these bone spurs from hockey skates; I had the surgery in early May and was able to play again in September for training camp. Granted, I was 18 years old and heal quicker than a 30 year old, but I was shocked to hear the 10-12 months. I get that the Achilles needs more time to heal for running than for skating, however 3-5 months would seem reasonable to me.

there's really no justifiable reason to give the Mets the benefit of the doubt.

In comment 14295095 bhill410 said:

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That unless there was some crazy abnormality in that surgery there is no medical reason why he couldn’t be ready by April May. After Conforto last year + Cespedes’s unique personality you get the conservative timeline of all star break to the vagaries of all season. The Mets clearly don’t know what to expect from him emotionally and want to maintain a consistent record for insurance purposes when/if his questionable work ethic arises. For purposes of discussing from a fans perspective it means nothing because there is an enormous gradient of outcomes, but know that a July or all season outcome is not supported by the medical community

He's not going to be back in April or May. I'm so positive of this fact, I will not post on a single Mets thread all season of Yoenis Cespedes is playing for the Mets before June 1st. It's not happening.

Do not expect any updates on Yoenis Cespedes.

The Mets slugger, who is entering the third year of a four-year deal, is not expected to return from double-heel surgery until at least July.

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, who was Cespedes’ agent until October, however, would not answer questions about the 33-year old’s rehab or what the Mets can hope to get from him this year.

“We won’t get into those,” Van Wagenen said when asked about a timeline for Cespedes’ return. “I think we’ve continued to be patient with him, we’re responsible not only his health, but also recognizing we need him and need him to be at his best when he comes back, so whenever that is we will be able to infuse him into our lineup.”

want to take me up on a Met? We can't do money or I would. I'm absolutely 100% positive there is no chance Cespedes is back in April/May, it's absurd.

"Privately, Mets officials have openly speculated if the Cuban-born slugger will ever be an everyday contributor again. Mets special advisor to the GM Omar Minaya came close to admitting that earlier this month when on MLB radio the said, ”If he gives us anything this year, that is great, we're happy for that.”

Van Wagenen, who represented Cespedes when he signed the $110 million deal with the Mets, masterfully redirected questions about his ability to contribute this season.

“We’re just really excited and hopeful that he’s going to be playing a big part of this team, While we haven’t put a timeline on it, we certainly expect him to be playing meaningful games and impacting this lineup,” Van Wagenen said. “As we’ve constructed it, we’ve got a really length to our lineup offensively as we have, now you insert Cespedes into that potentially at some point in the summer, you’ve got a really dominating and intimidating lineup we can go into the pennant race with.”

"Not only is Van Wagenen adamant Cespedes will contribute to the 2019 Mets, he expects Cespedes will turn back the clock to 2015. Cespedes is expected to miss at least half of the season after undergoing surgeries on both of his heels.

"We expect him to be an MVP-caliber player when he comes back," Van Wagenen said Monday at Citi Field. "And I know he does as well."


Suddenly the Mets are super secretive in the face of critique of their spending.. and flat out lying but Cespedes will be ready to go in a month into the season? Does that really make sense?

of Cespedes that has to put that kind of force on his lower body to run and to swing to generate the type of power that he does is likely very different than laymen or amateur athletes. Even most doctors havn't dealt with a world class athlete like Cespedes. Only the best of the best even get a chance to work on someone like that.

Besides, do we really think the Mets would say Cespedes is going to be out longer than he'll actually be when they are trying to sell tickets? If anything, they'd do the opposite and give an overly optimistic type of timeline (as they've done in the past).

In comment 14295167 Metnut said:

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of Cespedes that has to put that kind of force on his lower body to run and to swing to generate the type of power that he does is likely very different than laymen or amateur athletes. Even most doctors havn't dealt with a world class athlete like Cespedes. Only the best of the best even get a chance to work on someone like that. Besides, do we really think the Mets would say Cespedes is going to be out longer than he'll actually be when they are trying to sell tickets? If anything, they'd do the opposite and give an overly optimistic type of timeline (as they've done in the past).

I'll counter that with guys like AP, Wes Welker, etc. who have come back from ACL injuries far quicker than normal people. The fact that he's an elite athlete should allow him to return quicker rather than slower.

If he’s golfed yet

In comment 14295178 Shecky said:

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If he’s golfed yet

He's not even cleared to jog until next month the earliest pending clearance from the doctors so if he's playing golf they should look to void his contract

i'm still beyond impressed at the idea of slipping Cano some PED's in a couple years when he regresses to save some $.

trying to make this political so I'll say this as neutral as I can... a family member of a member of the team is going on political rants and openly fighting with fans on twitter. Real smart move...

Rookie maximums for at-bats (130), games pitched (30) or innings (50) in the major leagues"

If the 2 leaders are within 5% of each other, or the leader has less than 30% there will be a run-off between the top 2. If a run-off results in a tie the tiebreaker will be vote total in the previous poll, we will continue to "go back" in the polls until there is a clear leader.

*Jeff McNeil is ineligible
*Chris Flexen is ineligible
*Drew Smith is ineligible
*Tyler Bashlor is ineligible

1) Andres Gimenez (SS) AA 19/37 votes- 51%
2) Peter Alonso (1B) AAA 24/36 votes- 67%
3) Ronny Mauricio (SS) Kingsport 12/33-36%
4) Mark Vientos (3b) Kingsport 16/31-52%
5) David Peterson (LHP) A+ 21/31- 68%
6) Franklyn Kilome (RHP) AA 20/33-61%
7) Thomas Szapucki (LHP) A 18/32-56%
8 ) Shervyen Newton (SS) Kingsport 12/30-40%, Run-off with Anthony Kay 17/33-52%
9) Anthony Kay (LHP) AA 18/26-69%
10) Simeon Woods-Richardson (RHP) Kingsport 12/30-40%
11) Will Toffey (3B) 10/29-34%, run-off with Cecchini 15/27-56%
12) Gavin Cecchini (2b) 14/26-46%
13) Francisco Alvarez (C) 9/26-35%
14) Dez Lindsay (OF) 7/18-39%
15) Tony Dibrell (RHP) 9/23-39%
16) Jordan Humphreys (RHP) 7/21-33%, Run-off with Nido 18/24-75%
17) Junior Santos (RHP) 6/28-21%, Run-off with Nido 11/20-55%
18) Tomas Nido (C) 10/23-43%
19) Luis Guillorme (SS) 9/24-38%
20) Adrian Hernandez 6/26-23%, run-off with Wahl/Cortes 8/15-53%
21) Carlos Cortes (2b) 8/21-38%
22) Steven Villines (RHP) 4/16 25%, Run-off with Thompson/Wahl 9/23-39%
23) David Thompson (3b) 8/23-35%
24) Ali Sanchez (C) 9/17-53%
25) Eric Hanhold (RHP) 7/21-33%, run-off 7/20-35%
26) Luis Carpio (IF) 4/18-22%, runoff with Uriarte 9/14-64%
27) Stanley Consuegra (OF) 4/20-20%, runoff with Uriarte/Valdez 6/17-35%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
28) Juan Uriarte (C) 4/19-21%
29) Freddy Valdez (OF) 7/17-41%
30) Daniel Zamora (LHP) 3/17-18%, run-off with Montes De Oca 10/12-83%
31) Jaylen Palmer (??) 3/12-25%, run-off with Montes de Oca/Vilera 9/16-56%
32) Ryley Gilliam (RHP) 5/22-23%, run-off with Manea 8/16-50%, advances due to more votes in previous poll
33) Matt Winaker (OF) 4/22-18
34) Kyle Dowdy (RHP) 6/20-30%, run-off with Vilera 9/12-75%
35) Jaison Vilera (RHP) 6/17-35%
36) Jose Miguel Medina(OF) 6/17-24%
37) Jeremy Vasquez (1b) 3/18-17% run-off with MDO/Manea/Viall 3/7-43%
38) Patrick Mazeika (C) 4/13-31%
39) Walker Lockett (RHP) 5/13-38%
40) Sam Haggerty (UTIL) 7/11 64%
41) Chris Viall (RHP) 4/11 36%
42) Ryder Ryan (RHP) 8/13- 62%
43) Bryce Montes de Oca 6/19 32%
44) Christian James 6/17-35%
45) Joe Cavallaro 3/17-18%, run-off with Brodey 7/13-54%
46) Michael Paez (IF) 5/22-23%
47) David Marcano (RHP) 4/22-18%, run-off with Brody 7/12-58%
48) Quinn Brodey (OF) 5/23-22%, 9/13-69%
49) Jose Moreno (RHP) 4/23-17% run-off with Gonzalez 8/14-57%
50) Tim Tebow (OF) 8/33-24%, run-off with Gonzalez 17/27-63%

HM-
Yoel Romero (UTIL)
Gregory Guerrero (SS)
Raul Beracierta (OF)
Kevin Kaczmarski (OF)
Hansel Moreno (UTIL)
Edgardo Fermin (SS/2B)
Kevin Smith (LHP)
Daison Acosta (RHP)

Michael Mayer
@mikemayerMMO
·
57m
Four Mets in FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects

Peter Alonso 48
Andres Gimenez 52
Ronny Mauricio 68
Mark Vientos 92

and honestly hadn't heard of Ronny Mauricio until I read the list. Shame on me!

In comment 14295211 Metnut said:

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and honestly hadn't heard of Ronny Mauricio until I read the list. Shame on me!

Highest upside in the system. Newton might be higher but the swing and miss is so substantial that big bust factor is likely higher than most.

In comment 14295211 Metnut said:

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and honestly hadn't heard of Ronny Mauricio until I read the list. Shame on me!

Seriously? Shame on you is right ;)

With the ranch is?

In comment 14295228 Shecky said:

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With the ranch is?

Unless I'm missing a player I don't recall you ever disliking a player as much as Cespedes lol. I don't have any current Mets I feel that way about (Vargas blows but I just don't care about him enough). I used to feel that was about Luis Castillo.

And back to Mauricio...
I’ve made my comp who he resembles to me, let’s call that the pie in the sky dream. But I feel like we’ve got a futeture top ten prospect on our hands. Felt that way about Kelenic as well. I’ve always loved Alonso, even though the odds were always stacked against him. And Gimenez is the rare prospect that will always outplays his “skills”. A bunch of the arms have been forgotten about, but some will be useful down the road. Several McNeil types without his ceiling. It’s. A young farm, but maturing. For a shitty farm post trades, I’m still very very optimistic it will be productive.

Szapucki bounces back and shows the stuff he had pre-TJ. Humphreys is overrated by Mets fans by virtue of being lumped in with Szapucki. Humphreys upside is a Dillon Gee type. That's not a knock, that's a great outcome.

Honestly, all of the comps seem very ideal for the Mets to get a good deal on JDG right now. They'd be buying out his final 2 arb years, which are obviously more expensive, but I don't think they'd have to go beyond 2 or 3 FA years. Pretty sure they'd be able to get him well under what Corbin got as a UFA this year (6/140m).

5/100m would seem like a great outcome for all involved. The only reason I can think of BVW saying what he said yesterday is supreme confidence that they know getting a deal done will be very easy.

Are so underrated. Gee, Duda, Legares, Murphy, Nielse, Familia, Mejia. None are what’s prospect follower would be considered “good outcomes”. Even Familia hit his floor, no where near his ceiling.

But

What does that afford a team? A 4th and 5th starter. A closer. Couple starting position players. That’s like $50m+ saved offf payroll. Think about what you can buy in free agency TODAY with $50mm for upper end talent? Obviously you want top Ten prospects. Obviously you want DeGroms to develop. But those role players being developed are extremely vital. And not very difficult to produce, it’s what made the Cardinals so good for so long.

On top of that. If your player development is revamped and you can develop these players to do all the little things well (ex Cardinals), those players become IMMENSELY more valuable. Slightly better defensively, slightly better base running, slightly better at moving runners over, etc. it is incredibly easy to develop a pipeline of players who add .1 war in five categories just by teaching them to be fundamentally superior. I think that’s where we can be headed...

THOR!!!!!!!!!

In comment 14295294 Shecky said:

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THOR!!!!!!!!!

Agreed - I mean, jeez, we couldn't ask for a better comp than that.

In comment 14295292 Shecky said:

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Are so underrated. Gee, Duda, Legares, Murphy, Nielse, Familia, Mejia. None are what’s prospect follower would be considered “good outcomes”. Even Familia hit his floor, no where near his ceiling. But What does that afford a team? A 4th and 5th starter. A closer. Couple starting position players. That’s like $50m+ saved offf payroll. Think about what you can buy in free agency TODAY with $50mm for upper end talent? Obviously you want top Ten prospects. Obviously you want DeGroms to develop. But those role players being developed are extremely vital. And not very difficult to produce, it’s what made the Cardinals so good for so long. On top of that. If your player development is revamped and you can develop these players to do all the little things well (ex Cardinals), those players become IMMENSELY more valuable. Slightly better defensively, slightly better base running, slightly better at moving runners over, etc. it is incredibly easy to develop a pipeline of players who add .1 war in five categories just by teaching them to be fundamentally superior. I think that’s where we can be headed...

I just see a lot of people tossing around "Szapucki and Humphries" as if they are the same caliber of prospect. Humphries is a maxed out shortish RHP who throws strikes. He's 23 in June. The dream upside there is a Gee type who takes the ball every 5th day and keeps you in games. Gee, Trachsel etc. Szapucki has touched mid-90s from the left side and has missed bats. I still have major concerns with him and the odds of him being "the next" guy are low for various reasons but he certainly has a shot to be a the next top Mets pitching prospect. Humphries is not that.

arrives, walking pretty well, packed on the pounds however lol

I've never been especially high on either one and Jon Niese is probably an optimistic outcome for either, but both were high picks who starting to show signs last year and were considered guys who could move quickly. Neither seems to be in the top 100 conversation right now but hopefully 1 of them can change that by midseason.

In comment 14295314 DanMetroMan said:

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arrives, walking pretty well, packed on the pounds however lol

That was my biggest worry - it would be tough for anyone over 30 to not put on bad weight getting surgery on both feet like that. If you tear and ACL you are back to rehab within a few months. I expect that wasn't the case with this type of foot surgery.

a quick video but he looks very, very heavy. I'd say 30 pounds over playing weight. He's lost it before but yeah lol

just isn't the type to be a top 100 guy. He's a small lefty who is soon to be 24 who was mediocre in St. Lucie.

In comment 14295341 DanMetroMan said:

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just isn't the type to be a top 100 guy. He's a small lefty who is soon to be 24 who was mediocre in St. Lucie.

That's fair he's probably not a top 100 guy due to his age/lack of tools but if he or Peterson pitches well in the first half this year it's not impossible that they are options at the end of the season.

In comment 14295314 DanMetroMan said:

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arrives, walking pretty well, packed on the pounds however lol

It's not like his job requires him to be in good physical condition or anything.

In comment 14295363 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14295341 DanMetroMan said: Quote: just isn't the type to be a top 100 guy. He's a small lefty who is soon to be 24 who was mediocre in St. Lucie. That's fair he's probably not a top 100 guy due to his age/lack of tools but if he or Peterson pitches well in the first half this year it's not impossible that they are options at the end of the season.

Peterson is 6'6 and will be 23 for the entire season. If he pitches well he has an excellent shot. If he doesn't break out he'll then be a 24 year old "back end upside" type and those guys don't make top 100 lists. He certainly has a shot.

also has come to camp looking chunky. twitter is letting him have it.

What a deal for the Phillies

Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
The breakdown of Aaron Nola's deal with the Phillies:

$2M signing bonus
2019: $4M
2020: $8M
2021: $11.75M
2022: $15M
2023: $16M club option with $4.25M buyout

The deal can cover two years of free agency for Nola if the Phillies exercise the option.

In comment 14295380 DanMetroMan said:

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What a deal for the Phillies Jeff Passan @JeffPassan The breakdown of Aaron Nola's deal with the Phillies: $2M signing bonus 2019: $4M 2020: $8M 2021: $11.75M 2022: $15M 2023: $16M club option with $4.25M buyout The deal can cover two years of free agency for Nola if the Phillies exercise the option.

I'd offer Thor 1 literal dollar more right this second and pray he takes it. What a deal.

But pretty clear to me still that McNeil-Nimmo-Conforto is your primary OF going forward with Lagares and Broxton playing against lefties and coming in late for defense. Think it’s fairly obvious listening to Mickey and BVW over the last couple of days even if they haven’t said It directly.

In comment 14295829 ZGiants98 said:

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But pretty clear to me still that McNeil-Nimmo-Conforto is your primary OF going forward with Lagares and Broxton playing against lefties and coming in late for defense. Think it’s fairly obvious listening to Mickey and BVW over the last couple of days even if they haven’t said It directly.

Not the best defense but.... versus right handed pitching... oh boy! It moved!

and use Lagares/Broxton late in most games if they have leads. Over the last 3 years Broxton's OPS vs. lefties is almost .800 in about 200 AB.

How long will he hold out for a 2 year contract. Eventually he has to sign somewhere to a 1 year contract sooner or later, right?

In comment 14295916 Eric on Li said:

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and use Lagares/Broxton late in most games if they have leads. Over the last 3 years Broxton's OPS vs. lefties is almost .800 in about 200 AB.

Really love the flexibility of this lineup above all else. We should shred righties but for once I think we might have a good shot against lefties too if we stay healthy. In the past, it felt like it was game over against a south paw, no matter who it was.

In comment 14295892 Metnut said:

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In comment 14295829 ZGiants98 said: Quote: But pretty clear to me still that McNeil-Nimmo-Conforto is your primary OF going forward with Lagares and Broxton playing against lefties and coming in late for defense. Think it’s fairly obvious listening to Mickey and BVW over the last couple of days even if they haven’t said It directly. Not the best defense but.... versus right handed pitching... oh boy! It moved!

Who knows? I think there's a chance McNeil is going to be decent in LF. Mickey has already said he's looked good out there (granted that doesnt mean much). I think Nimmo is passable in CF, Conforto is above average in a corner... if McNeil can be average-ish and you have close to two gold glove caliber players in reserve and coming in late for D, that doesn't really sound like a bad defensive OF to me. I guess we'll find out soon enough regarding McNeil.