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NFT: Competitive balance in NHL re: NY Rangers

Sean : 2/13/2019 6:55 am
I don’t follow the NHL closely, but I keep an eye on it. One thing I’ve always noticed is the teams considered bad always still manage to have respectable records. The Senators are the worst team in the east at 9 games under .500, Ducks in the west only 5 games under .500.

Looking at the NBA, the Knicks & Suns will be lucky to win 5 more games & are both over 30 games under .500.

I notice this based on the narrative of the Rangers this year - it is widely considered as a throw away/rebuilding year, yet they are .500 at 24-24.

Is there a factor I’m missing here? OT losses maybe? Because I find that to be pretty impressive for a rebuilding year.
The number of games  
Nomad Crow on the Madison : 2/13/2019 7:24 am : link
the Rangers have lost after leading in the third period is really astounding. That is a testament to youth and poor team defense. They are an exciting team to watch, though, as they have speed and a pretty consistent high level of competitiveness. The other thing they lack is a true big-time goal scorer. With the addition of a 40 goal scorer and improved defense they will be much improved in the win column.
I would argue that the Rangers haven't necessarily dove  
jlukes : 2/13/2019 7:56 am : link
head first into a true rebuild.

If they did, they would have traded Henrick by now.
The lack of parity in the NBA is a problem  
DonQuixote : 2/13/2019 8:20 am : link
It's the main reason the NHL playoffs are objectively more exciting in the earlier rounds.
RE: I would argue that the Rangers haven't necessarily dove  
Anakim : 2/13/2019 8:32 am : link
In comment 14295112 jlukes said:
Quote:
head first into a true rebuild.

If they did, they would have traded Henrick by now.


He has a NTC and has said on record that he wants to stay here.


The funny thing is Georgiev is probably better right now and could've won them more games than Henrik did.
Actually,  
Gman11 : 2/13/2019 9:15 am : link
The Rangers are 24-24-8. So, they've won 24 out of 56 games. They've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on quite a few occasions due to offensive players that aren't too good at puck possession and a defense that is average at best.

Despite Zibanejad being on fire, they really need another top 6 player or two and a good shut down defenseman.
Basketball has hundreds  
Metnut : 2/13/2019 9:19 am : link
of shots and scoring opportunities per game. Hitting or missing a shot usually doesn't turn a game in the grand scheme of things (aside from close games in final few minutes).

Hockey most often turns on only a few outcomes per game. Puck deflects off of a guy's skate into a goal? Your team's chances of winning the game just changed by 25-33%. Just by the nature of the sport, a bad team has a much better chance of winning a hockey team versus a good than in basketball.

Personally, I think it makes for a more exciting product to watch.
The Rangers have 18 wins in regulation/OT  
rsjem1979 : 2/13/2019 9:27 am : link
Tied for the fewest in the entire NHL. Their record looks somewhat respectable because of the ludicrous way the NHL awards points - the Rangers 6 shootout wins are the most in the NHL, and their 8 OT losses are the 2nd most.

Suffice it to say, their record is a mirage.
RE: The Rangers have 18 wins in regulation/OT  
Mike in Long Beach : 2/13/2019 11:10 am : link
In comment 14295172 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:
Tied for the fewest in the entire NHL. Their record looks somewhat respectable because of the ludicrous way the NHL awards points - the Rangers 6 shootout wins are the most in the NHL, and their 8 OT losses are the 2nd most.

Suffice it to say, their record is a mirage.


This was what I was going to post. The Rangers have won 32% of their hockey games in either regulation or the 5 minute OT. The other 68% have either been losses or wins in the skills competition (not hockey) that is the shootout. So when judging the Rangers, it's fair to say despite the mirage of a 500 record, they clearly are a hockey team that is rebuilding.

For comparison sake, the Orioles had one of the worst years in baseball history by winning 29% of their games. The second worst team in baseball won 36% of their games.

So that's what your missing, IMO. When judging a hockey team, the most effective way is to take their ROWs (Regulation or Overtime wins) and use that as their winning percentage. You'll get standings that logically make more sense. Generally speaking, teams with low totals there don't often make the playoffs, so at least that part works.
RE: Basketball has hundreds  
Jay in Toronto : 2/13/2019 4:13 pm : link
In comment 14295161 Metnut said:
Quote:
of shots and scoring opportunities per game. Hitting or missing a shot usually doesn't turn a game in the grand scheme of things (aside from close games in final few minutes).

Hockey most often turns on only a few outcomes per game. Puck deflects off of a guy's skate into a goal? Your team's chances of winning the game just changed by 25-33%. Just by the nature of the sport, a bad team has a much better chance of winning a hockey team versus a good than in basketball.

Personally, I think it makes for a more exciting product to watch.


In hockey, esp in a good game, the most exciting/important thing can happen at any point in the 60 minutes.

In BB, exciting/important thing typically happen in the last 2.
RE: I would argue that the Rangers haven't necessarily dove  
BrettNYG10 : 2/13/2019 4:18 pm : link
In comment 14295112 jlukes said:
Quote:
head first into a true rebuild.

If they did, they would have traded Henrick by now.


I see your point but disagree - didn't seem like Henrik wanted to go, and I don't see many takers for him and his contract. He's got two more years after this, so maybe someone will bite. But combined with his age and risk of decline at his age (he's not what he was at his peak, already), it's tough.

And the Rangers are awful. Their record understates how bad they are. It's going to be brutal if they pick 8th-12th this year.
...  
BrettNYG10 : 2/13/2019 4:21 pm : link
And I think Lundqvist could put up top five numbers if he played behind a good defense. The Rangers defense is just unbelievably bad. I can see a taker after this year if NYR eats 50% of his deal. If I'm TOR I'd try to swap Andersen for Henrik this off-season.

I still think NYR made the right move in 2013 with the Lundqvist contract. It's just crushing we (seemingly) couldn't get him a Cup.

If Zucc didn't get that injury in 2015, I think we beat TB.
To answer the OP's question -  
MetsAreBack : 2/13/2019 4:24 pm : link
hockey has the absurd OTL concept as some genius consultant or marketing firm convinced league ownership that giving casual fans false hope longer into a season via inflated records was good for gate sales and TV ratings.

the concept of .500 means nothing when the average or median "win percentage" is 60% in the sport... and no team makes the playoffs with just 82 points.

It'd be like MLB giving 'half wins' to teams that take games into extra innings or the NFL giving extra credit for getting to overtime. Absurd.

There should be nothing wrong with a tie, or better yet, awarding 3 points for a regulation win and 2 points for an OT win.

Really -- Ottawa and Anaheim are both 21-35. As mentioned above, the Rangers are in reality one of the worst teams in the league with just 18 ROW.. but this stupid system has them about 11th in the draft currently because they get a lot of games to OT.
What MAB  
pjcas18 : 2/13/2019 4:28 pm : link
and Brett said (and some other good points) but those two addressed the parity from a record standpoint and hank/rangers
And of course...  
MetsAreBack : 2/13/2019 4:33 pm : link
hockey will always have more parity than basketball, even with points issues taken into account.

One sport relies on 19 guys working together a night, with even the iron men (ex goalie) logging ~40% of gametime... the other depends on just 7-8 man rotations with superstars logging 80% of game time.

You can win 60 games in the NBA with one HoF player and two terrific all-star teammates.

In the NHL, for sustained success (due to salary cap) you do need 1-2 franchise players... but you also need at least 12 really good, economic value players on the team as well.
RE: To answer the OP's question -  
Gman11 : 2/14/2019 10:36 am : link
In comment 14295889 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
hockey has the absurd OTL concept as some genius consultant or marketing firm convinced league ownership that giving casual fans false hope longer into a season via inflated records was good for gate sales and TV ratings.

the concept of .500 means nothing when the average or median "win percentage" is 60% in the sport... and no team makes the playoffs with just 82 points.

It'd be like MLB giving 'half wins' to teams that take games into extra innings or the NFL giving extra credit for getting to overtime. Absurd.


It isn't the loser's point that inflates point totals, it's the winner's point for winning during a gimmicky 3-on-3 game or, even worse, the stupid shootout.

Back when the game ended in a tie, both teams got a point and they still do. It's determining a winner by artificial means that inflates the points.
It's both... the losers point which doesnt happen in any other sport  
MetsAreBack : 2/14/2019 12:15 pm : link
as well as the 3rd point awarded for teams winning games 3-on-3 or by shootout.

Bottom line is ".500" is an irrelevant metric in hockey. The league as a whole has a .550-.600 "win percentage" and it usually takes 90+ points to make the postseason (which invites half the league's teams in annually)
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