When the Mets first announced they were bringing Jason Vargas as a starter on the lower end of the rotation, I was optimistic. Then he shit the bed. So I’m listening to Calloway’s comments on Vargas, his no-spring 2018 season and the pitcher’s need (more than others?) to get in a groove, as well as how well he finished, and it prompted me to check the numbers.
Mickey wasn’t wrong.
From August 14 on, Vargas WAS, as Mickey said, “better than most teams’ 3rd and 4th starters.” He was 5-1 (team record was 6-2 in his starts in that stretch), and his ERA was 2.74 in almost 43 IP.
In all those solid starts there was one stinker. Take that start out? The ERA drops to 2.06 over 39-plus innings.
I’m looking to buy. Hope springs eternal, and Vargas is in camp and allegedly ready to roll.
Let’s go!!!
In my opinion, it would be ideal to use him as a sixth starter. A guy to break up the rotation and occasionally in the pen. Use him as an “opener” one time through the order. Lefty soft tossed to righty gas. Yeah, that would be insanely effective. Just don’t think he has the mentality for it, hence the “he needs to get in a groove” thing.
I used to have high hopes of Flexen being a 3/4. It’s been talked a lot about his renewed focus, so won’t bother with that. But there are multiple arms to cover spot starts, that’s not a concern. Could be argued that it should though. Another BP arm to free up Lugo to me would be an IDEAL scenario to solve multiple problems.
Done rambling lol.
So do the numbers mean nada?
Just not possible for him to turn in a decent-enough 2019?
-Cespedes has an excuse to be so out of shape but weird seeing Frazier a clear 10+ pounds heavier than last year. I get he's going to be playing mostly 1b (for now) but kind of shocked me.
He's not an innings eater. Hasn't cleared 180 innings since 2014 and has cleared 185 innings 4 times in his career, 1 time since 2012. This isn't Colon or Livan Hernandez. Vargas impacts the pen in the wrong way. Lets hope for the best.
- Axford back to the Jays.
- Xavier Cedeno to the Cubs.
- Jake Diekman to the Royals.
Dennis Lin
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Brad Wieck was diagnosed with testicular cancer. He recently underwent surgery and is expected to spend most of the spring recovering, Andy Green said.
The issue with Met pitching depth isn't entirely Vargas - though make no mistake, planning to throw him out there in 10-20% of the games they play is risky. It's that they are also banking on a previously unreliable pitcher like Matz as well. So the risk compounds. A lot is therefore banked on the big 3 being healthy and pitching well. I think it's accurate that every 1 of our 5 starters was on the DL at some point last year. When that happens, who is #6 right now?
Meanwhile, someone like Gio Gonzalez is just hanging out there and he hasn't made less than 27 starts or posted an ERA over 4.1 in 9 years. That's a guy who is better than most teams 4 or 5 starter.
I'm in the same boat, I mostly like the players added but guardedly optimistic because quick transformations don't always work great and there are enough signs of cracks in the foundation to concerned. I'm less worried about the OF depth because I think Conforto is going to have a big year and 1 of Mcneil/Nimmo will have a good followup year, but the pitching depth worries me. As does Callaway managing a team that requires so many lineup decisions. BVW talked about eliminating "ifs" and literally the biggest one this organization has had entering the past 5 years remains.
"If the big 3 stay healthy..."
The issue with Met pitching depth isn't entirely Vargas - though make no mistake, planning to throw him out there in 10-20% of the games they play is risky. It's that they are also banking on a previously unreliable pitcher like Matz as well. So the risk compounds. A lot is therefore banked on the big 3 being healthy and pitching well. I think it's accurate that every 1 of our 5 starters was on the DL at some point last year. When that happens, who is #6 right now?
Meanwhile, someone like Gio Gonzalez is just hanging out there and he hasn't made less than 27 starts or posted an ERA over 4.1 in 9 years. That's a guy who is better than most teams 4 or 5 starter.
You must be getting smarter and smarter as I find myself agreeing with you more and more lately Eric lol jk. But 100% on your top 2 points.
1. Why not let it play out? Vargas should have 0 cache here and even his stupid 10 million owed shouldn't be the deciding factor in a team trying to contend.
2. People like to ignore how unreliable Matz is. This is compounded by Vargas. The depth behind those 2 is scary. Lets play one of Peterson or Kay become legit options second half.
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he should be a depth player at best. Maybe a 5th starter is a depth player, but there is zero reason to hand him a spot in a rotation without having to earn it. What if the guy they traded for (Lockett) is better? Very bizarre comment to hand him a spot. It's almost as if they feel the need to treat him with kid gloves or pump up his confidence - which is odd for a veteran.
The issue with Met pitching depth isn't entirely Vargas - though make no mistake, planning to throw him out there in 10-20% of the games they play is risky. It's that they are also banking on a previously unreliable pitcher like Matz as well. So the risk compounds. A lot is therefore banked on the big 3 being healthy and pitching well. I think it's accurate that every 1 of our 5 starters was on the DL at some point last year. When that happens, who is #6 right now?
Meanwhile, someone like Gio Gonzalez is just hanging out there and he hasn't made less than 27 starts or posted an ERA over 4.1 in 9 years. That's a guy who is better than most teams 4 or 5 starter.
You must be getting smarter and smarter as I find myself agreeing with you more and more lately Eric lol jk. But 100% on your top 2 points.
1. Why not let it play out? Vargas should have 0 cache here and even his stupid 10 million owed shouldn't be the deciding factor in a team trying to contend.
2. People like to ignore how unreliable Matz is. This is compounded by Vargas. The depth behind those 2 is scary. Lets play one of Peterson or Kay become legit options second half.
lol i'll take it.
Also here's another observation we've all kind of glossed over - last year we broke camp with Harvey too. We signed Vargas as a 6th starter in the first place! So everyone (especially the Mets org) is forgetting how quickly the unexpected can happen and basically wishing themselves to believe the 2nd half from last year can continue, and ignoring the fact that in the first half we had more than half of our rotation tank and didn't have enough depth to support it even with 1 extra starter.
In the first half last year Lugo (5), Oswalt (4), Harvey (4), Conlon (2), Gagnon (1), Flexen (1), and Blevins (1) made a combined 18 starts. And again, that's just in the first half of the season! With JDG, Matz, and Wheeler each making almost all their starts and Syndergaard only missing a few turns.
Aside from the Wilpons having to spend money, is there any downside to inking him to a 1 year deal?
I know that every pitcher can be fragile, but even if the top 3 guys stay healthy, Matz has not proven he can stay healthy or consistent and Vargas just isn't any good. I'm worried about the back half and depth of this staff.
Do you trust Wheeler yet? Worse case he is what he was. Best case he is 2018, and you lose him next year anyway.
GET BAUER!!!!!
LOCK UP THOR!!!!!
Aside from the Wilpons having to spend money, is there any downside to inking him to a 1 year deal?
I know that every pitcher can be fragile, but even if the top 3 guys stay healthy, Matz has not proven he can stay healthy or consistent and Vargas just isn't any good. I'm worried about the back half and depth of this staff.
He's still looking for 2 years but I think he's going to have to settle. The Mets would be smart to offer him 1 year with a 2nd year vested option based on usage. Worst case they need him, he pitches often and he's next years Vargas.
Do you trust Wheeler yet? Worse case he is what he was. Best case he is 2018, and you lose him next year anyway.
GET BAUER!!!!!
LOCK UP THOR!!!!!
Ok good compromise. Though it seems unlikely bc none of Callaway's former players ever seem to want to reunite with him.
-called Alonso a DH who will play 1b
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low 4s in ERA and eat some good innings, that would be great
He's not an innings eater. Hasn't cleared 180 innings since 2014 and has cleared 185 innings 4 times in his career, 1 time since 2012. This isn't Colon or Livan Hernandez. Vargas impacts the pen in the wrong way. Lets hope for the best.
Not looking at it right now, but in those final 42-plus IP last season, where he was actually good, I recall seeing the number 5 a lot - as in, IP per outing. Not so much the eating of innings.
How bad could this kid be at 1B if everybody calls him a DH ?? Is he Lucas Duda ?? or Bill Buckner ??
Could he be Marvelous Marv Throneberry out there ??
Don't expect to see Kieth Hernandez, but if he's gonna hit 40 Homers, he gets a long look at !B. I'm anxious to see Alonso swing the bat, and play the field this spring,
Not really that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things, but just odd for Callaway to speak out like that.
Re: Vargas in general, he's the sort of guy that would probably be on a minor league deal if he was an FA this offseason. Maybe he's good enough to lock down the 5th starter role, but on a contending team you'd expect him to be one of the guys in the mix for that spot, not the option the team is counting on.
It's not impossible he picks up where he left off at the end of last year. We're all due for some good luck, so maybe Vargas can hold the spot down. There was enough down the stretch from him that there's something for optimists to hang their hat on.
Dan, is there a full listing somewhere? Curious about other Mets. Crazy that Lowrie and Nimmo are up there. Almost forget Lowrie is a Met!
That graphic about Nimmo + Lowrie is very encouraging. Considering working good at bats is also something Cano is very good at, it would seem to me that the top of our lineup is going to be very pesky for opposing pitchers. The bottom too if that's where McNeil ends up.
Great job kicking off ST with positive vibes!!!!!!
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is legit, but Votto... is a FREAK. The Reds are going for it and his contract is too long to feel safe but damn would Votto be sweet in this lineup. One of the best players of his generation EASILY
Dan, is there a full listing somewhere? Curious about other Mets. Crazy that Lowrie and Nimmo are up there. Almost forget Lowrie is a Met!
Sorry, pulled that graphic off of twitter, I'm sure it exists just not sure where lol
His K% is just a hugely limiting factor right now and he just swings and misses a ton inside the zone. His "inside the Zone Contact Percentage" was 12th worst which seems really bad, but right next to him at #10 and #11 are Justin Upton and Bryce Harper. His overall contact % is also really bad (7th worst in baseball). But again, not in bad company because players worse than him include Stanton, Baez, and Khris Davis.
I could kind of buy that he's the next Javy Baez in terms of being an insane tools guy who flashed productively for a few years and then eventually has a major breakout. Interesting buy low candidate for someone if the Sox would be willing to sell.
That graphic about Nimmo + Lowrie is very encouraging. Considering working good at bats is also something Cano is very good at, it would seem to me that the top of our lineup is going to be very pesky for opposing pitchers. The bottom too if that's where McNeil ends up.
Good points, but Conforto does have the better arm and Nimmo's a little faster.
Iwakuma retired, Fister retired. Edwin Jackson and Shields are awful even as depth.
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I'd have thought it would be easier for Mcneil in RF since it's basically the same visual as 2B, just further back. Conforto has also always been a stud in LF more than anywhere else, but maybe they think his arm will play better.
That graphic about Nimmo + Lowrie is very encouraging. Considering working good at bats is also something Cano is very good at, it would seem to me that the top of our lineup is going to be very pesky for opposing pitchers. The bottom too if that's where McNeil ends up.
Good points, but Conforto does have the better arm and Nimmo's a little faster.
Than Nimmo yes, but that's why he'll play CF vs. most righties - but Im pretty sure Mcneil is going to cover as similar amount of ground as Conforto. No idea how his arm will play or how much range he will cover, just surprised they are going to flip him to the other side of the field.