Eli, the Giants 2019 record, and the HOF

this franchise has fallen since Hurricane Sandy.

In comment 14300035 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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this franchise has fallen since Hurricane Sandy.

The numbers show it too

Eli's record as a starter before Sandy- 75-52. His record after Sandy- 41-62.

...and Eli isn't going to win games by himself. Hence the losing record.

On the flip side, the two SB's can certainly looked upon as team wins.........and SB's are what many would consider his greatest achievement.

So where does that leave Eli?

I think Eli's legacy for the HOF will be longevity, his ironman status, and his stats when he retires. He's top 10 in major categories. And while people may disagree, I think his professionalism and playing in NY will also paly a part.

That, along with being the QB of two SB teams (and making historic throws), will eventually get him in. I don't think he's first ballot, but I believe in what he's accomplished - he's worthy of the Hall.

I've said he's played the toughest position in sports in the toughest town for sports.

(in other words, it takes Eli more than 7 years to win 1 more game than he loses), the other most damning piece of Eli's HoF credentials is that he has been considered as top 5 among his peers in no more than 2 of the 15 years. That's simply not HoF worthy to a lot of people.

I greatly enjoyed Eli's two Super Bowl runs -- I was at Candlestick and then at Lucas Oil two weeks later to witness his second title in person in 2012 -- but I really think many here greatly over-valued the influence of Super Bowl MVP on HoF admission. We shall see. The four other mutli SB-MVP winners -- Brady, Montana, Starr, Bradshaw -- would have gotten into the HoF without even one SB-MVP award.

The question is will Mara allow Eli to finish the year with a career record of 122-124?

Eli is a lock.

how many around him did not make it into the HoF? Seems you only looked at one stat and it was a team one.

They just aren't good enough.

He may well get in because the Hall of Fame is about Famous Football players, and Eli is pretty damn famous

he'll have 122 wins, which is 60 more than Namath and 53 more than Jurgensen. Add two SB MVP awards, two wins that stunned the Pats, and the most memorable play in SB history -- he's not a lock, but he'll still have a strong case.

I think the voters are sentimental, and they'll like the Manning-brothers angle. Heck, they may even vote for Eli because he's more likable than Peyton.

will offset the lifetime record. So I don't think the W/L is a major issue.

The real issue for Eli's HoF candidacy is going to be his overall regular season performance. It's a record more on quantity than quality, and that's a much tougher sell...for me.

to those of players from other era's. You have to compare him to the players he competed against Everybody likes to talk about Eli's career highs last year but even so he ranked 9th in passing yards and 19th in QB rating. Hall of Fame? Please.

forget the all time lists because Eli played the 2nd half of his career in the passing era. But as regards to his peers:

He will be top 6 among his peers when he retires in yards and TDs:

Peyton
Brady
Brees
Rivers
Roethlisberger

He will be passed by others eventually. Ryan, Rodgers, and Stafford have a good chance of passing him.

But lets dig more:

Passing yards top 10 - 7 seasons
TDs in top 10 - 10 seasons

Both are very respectable. So if you take in yardage, TDs, SBs, SB MVPs, ironman streak, Man of the Year...

He will get eventually. May not be the first or second year. But he will get in. Much like every one else.... their resume gets stronger the longer he is out of the game.

argue statistics, but if being an ambassador for the game was the criteria then he would be a first ballot entry.

How much would that enhance his chances at being a HOF'er? Does that ONE YEAR of "above average" play lift him over the hump?

I don't think Eli is a HOF QB right now. Not first ballot anyway.

In comment 14300118 Bill L said:

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how many around him did not make it into the HoF? Seems you only looked at one stat and it was a team one.

Bill

As is being tracked further in the thread below, it's kind of tough to compare numbers because the game has changed so much from what was done in the 1970s/1980s compared to the 2000s. For a long time, it was expected that a QB would hold a clipboard for a good 2-3 years before they got to start a game. The Dan Marino type was far the exception. With a salary cap and lightened rules to benefit the offense, a QB is expected to start in year 1-2 now and also play at a pretty high level.

To also be fair to Eli, his 116 wins are more than every current HOF QB with the exception of Favre (186), Elway (148), Marino (147), Tarkenton (124), Unitas (118), Montana (117). So even in a 6-10 year, Eli would leapfrog Montana and Johnny U.

And why I'm referencing W-L record, yes, football is a team game. But generally speaking, you rate your QB on how much does your team win. The QB has more effect on the game than any position on the field. So their play, for the most part, dictates wins and losses more than any other position on the field.

Would you ever consider Terry Bradshaw to be a great passer? Bradshaw played 14 years in the NFL. He only threw for 20+ TDs in a season 4 times (career high 28 in 1978). I know the Pro Bowl is a bit of a joke, but he only made it 3 times in his career. In fact, Bradshaw threw for 20+ INTs in a season 5 times. He only went over 3000 yards passing twice (career high 3724 in 1979).

But he was the field general on a great team that won 4 Super Bowls, and he went 107-51 in his career. You judge him by the Super Bowls and the MVPs, but his career record stands out.

Some other career records for Super Bowl winning QBs in the Hall:

- Troy Aikman: 94-71
- Len Dawson- 94-57-8
- John Elway- 148-82-1
- Bob Griese- 92-56-3
- Joe Montana- 117-47
- Ken Stabler- 96-49-1
- Bart Starr- 94-57-6
- Roger Staubach- 85-29
- Steve Young- 94-49

The question I ask is what would Eli's stats had been these last 6- 7 years with a quality line that he had for the first half of career?

Aikman, Roethlisberger, and Bradshaw had very good to outstanding lines. Bradshaw had a historic defense as well. Sometimes I think this concept of QB's "elevating" is taken way too far imo. I would like to have seen how these QB's would have performed with how the Giants treated the LOS.

Had the Giants provided a above average line I don't even think this would be a discussion as the winning percentage/stats would look far different.

Two Super Bowl MVP's in NY with two totally different skill players at WR/TE and a class act will get him in regardless. It will just be a few years down the road if these voters really look at the whole situation.

In comment 14300190 Matt in SGS said:

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As is being tracked further in the thread below, it's kind of tough to compare numbers because the game has changed so much from what was done in the 1970s/1980s compared to the 2000s.

Exactly. The proper interpretation of personal stats have evolved a lot over the years, but the values of wins and how one is judged among his peers have remained almost exactly constant.

An 11-win season is still every bit as impressive in 2018 as it was in 1988, and Eli has produced 3 of those. Same for performing as top 5 among one's quarterbacks peers because everyone is judged by the same evolution of personal stats, and Eli has produced 2 of those. Over 14 full seasons ...... will be 15 in 10 months.

In comment 14300219 LAXin said:

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In comment 14300190 Matt in SGS said: Quote: As is being tracked further in the thread below, it's kind of tough to compare numbers because the game has changed so much from what was done in the 1970s/1980s compared to the 2000s. Exactly. The proper interpretation of personal stats have evolved a lot over the years, but the values of wins and how one is judged among his peers have remained almost exactly constant. An 11-win season is still every bit as impressive in 2018 as it was in 1988, and Eli has produced 3 of those. Same for performing as top 5 among one's quarterbacks peers because everyone is judged by the same evolution of personal stats, and Eli has produced 2 of those. Over 14 full seasons ...... will be 15 in 10 months.

curious to understand why you picked 11, versus 10. Ten would be the first double digit number...........

it's the way he Won -- he led a 9-7 team -- they were a wild card -- they beat the top seeded 13-3 Cowboys -- they beat the Brett Favre led Packers in the ice bowl -- then they beat the 18-0 Patriots - ruining their bid at a perfect season and pretty much no one thought they even had a chance and Eli was arguably the best player on the field throughout the playoffs

then he did it again -- led a 9-7 team where he survived a brutally improbable game in San Francisco and then once again knocked off the Patriots as MVP

no other 9-7 team had ever won the Super Bowl before - Eli led 2 9-7 teams there as MVP

Add to that he is a Manning and that the Manning sons dominated playoff football when both Eli and Peyton were playing - add Eli's iron man run into the mix and his lifetime top ten achievement -

and the Hall of Fame story kind of writes itself

..

But 2 seasons out of 15 with a playoff win and a losing record if that ends up being the case, would be hard to argue against his rejection.

Not without debate and not necessarily the first time out.

His two playoff runs were among the greatest in history.

Not many QB's have two Super Bowl MVP's either.

He will get in...

record will matter. He got in the hall of fame as soon as we took down the Pats in 2012, IMO. Since then he’s put up enough stats to satisfy that criteria. Add in the iron man streak that shouldnt have ended and he’s a shoe in.

I used to, but the image put out there since 2012 has been so poor that I think it will have a real lasting impact. Assuming 2019 is a poor season again, that will be 8 good years followed by 8 bad ones.

more hated franchise or qb by the media. That will be the determining factor.

They are both a contest of popularity in the media, based on which players have the best public relations connections. Both should be terminated.

Pretty much everyone gets into the Pro Football Hall of Fame anyway.

Eli Manning has two Super Bowl wins including one of the most historic wins in NFL history. He's got longevity and yardage/TD numbers. His record will be what it will be, but with the passage of time people tend to forget about things like that and remember very specific details.

If there's no doubt Eli would have gotten in after 2016 (108-91 record, 320 TDs, 215 INTs) I don't see why three bad record years would ultimately sway it in the other direction.

how many times did their defenses give up over 400 points and they won anything? That's what Eli had to work with...

his defense stepping up when it mattered most

In comment 14300390 WideRight said:

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his defense stepping up when it mattered most

So can every one SB winner? It's a team game.

where are the elite seasons that separate him from the pack?

so Eli's voting support will have plenty of air cover.

He'll get in, and probably with a lot less angst than shown on this site every 3 weeks or so with a thread about Eli and his HOF chances...

Eli making the HoF are team-based stats. The stats arguing for Eli are individual stats. Now technically there isn't a stat that doesn't include some individual or team aspect to it but I believe most stats lean one way or the other.

When I see a win/loss record I don't think of the QB, I think of the team first and then individual players. When I see longevity, stats specific to passing (i.e. reception, TDs, yards, interceptions, etc), individual awards, etc I see individual QB stats and then look at the team as a whole during that time.

He has the individual stats to make it in the HoF IMHO. The team's stats are questionable. The other variable I'm not sure about his popularity. How well will he be viewed by his peers, fans, and the press 5 years or more after he retires? Currently, I think more of those (peers, press, fans, etc) respect Eli outside of thinking it's time for him to retire. I could be wrong. How will they think of him at HoF voting time?

I think he needs to time his retirement well and his chances improve if he decides to hang them up instead of management somehow deciding for him. Ultimately he should make it in but 1st ballot will be a hard sell. I keep looking at one specific stat which I agree isn't fair but it really stands out ...

Only 5 QBs have multiple SB MVPs. Three are in the HoF (Bradhshaw, Barr, and Montana). The other two are Tom Brady (who has the most with 4) and Eli Manning. Oh and stop with "the defense won Eli his MVP" because that's absurd. Ask Rothlisberger if his defenses won him any MVPs.

In comment 14300281 SterlingArcher said:

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more hated franchise or qb by the media. That will be the determining factor.

This will be a factor. I don't think it's hate but Eli has always been a target for sports media critics. Establishing your credibility by criticizing Eli is a right od passage condoned by all. It's going to continue in full force through his years of HOF eligibility.

Chris Carter, for one, will argue strongly against Eli until the end of time, because once he's in, Carter will have nothing left to say and his career will be over

But the Walter Payton Man of the Year award is a big deal on the resume for candidates for the HOF. Voters will consider the stats, records, and awards as the total body of work of a candidate. The MoY is an exclusive recognition of a player's charitable efforts.

This is a tough one for me.
I am a big Eli Manning fan. What Giants fan couldn't be? He's the perfect citizen, great character and Jeter-like in his ability to handle the spotlight in NY and that goes a long way with me. That said, I am not the biggest proponent of his abilities.

When the Giants picked Manning, I was expecting an All Pro-calibre Quarterback year in, year out. The only year I really though Eli was in that MVP conversation was 2011 - undoubtedly his career year. Regardless of team around him, 2011 was the year Eli personally played great football and it remains one of the greatest QB seasons in NFL history nobody talks about.

I expected the 2011 version of Eli his entire career but we really only got it that one year. I remember thinking how excited I was for 2012 and beyond after the 2011 season, assuming Eli had finally "arrived" to his full potential.

makes you believe Eli is a bust and only had 1 good year in his career.

Yet all those people who say this are "big Eli fans..." haha.

In comment 14300552 USAF NYG Fan said:

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Eli making the HoF are team-based stats. The stats arguing for Eli are individual stats. Now technically there isn't a stat that doesn't include some individual or team aspect to it but I believe most stats lean one way or the other. When I see a win/loss record I don't think of the QB, I think of the team first and then individual players. When I see longevity, stats specific to passing (i.e. reception, TDs, yards, interceptions, etc), individual awards, etc I see individual QB stats and then look at the team as a whole during that time. He has the individual stats to make it in the HoF IMHO. The team's stats are questionable. The other variable I'm not sure about his popularity. How well will he be viewed by his peers, fans, and the press 5 years or more after he retires? Currently, I think more of those (peers, press, fans, etc) respect Eli outside of thinking it's time for him to retire. I could be wrong. How will they think of him at HoF voting time? I think he needs to time his retirement well and his chances improve if he decides to hang them up instead of management somehow deciding for him. Ultimately he should make it in but 1st ballot will be a hard sell. I keep looking at one specific stat which I agree isn't fair but it really stands out ... Only 5 QBs have multiple SB MVPs. Three are in the HoF (Bradhshaw, Barr, and Montana). The other two are Tom Brady (who has the most with 4) and Eli Manning. Oh and stop with "the defense won Eli his MVP" because that's absurd. Ask Rothlisberger if his defenses won him any MVPs.

I think these are very fair comments, but I still believe that the mark of a QB (particularly one with the longevity that Eli has had) you need to look at the W/L's when you look at his stats. You could make the arguement that Eli is a compiler at this point.

For fun, let's look at the group we generally consider Eli's peers around the time we had that whole stupid "is Eli elite?" Michael Kay thing.

Peyton Manning- 186-79, 4 Super Bowls (2-2 record)
Tom Brady- 207-60, 9 Super Bowls (6-3 record)
Ben Roethlisberger- 144-69-1, 2 Super Bowls (1-1 record)
Drew Brees- 155-108, 1 Super Bowl (1-0 record)
Phillip Rivers- 118-90, 0 Super Bowls
Aaron Rodgers- 100-57-1, 1 Super Bowl (1-0 record)


I think we'd agree all these guys probably going to the Hall of Fame. They all have won consistently more than Eli did. I think a bad year here and there can be excused. I just don't know if the voters will excuse so many bad years in the back half of his career to put him in. I think of his father, and it was said for many years, the only difference between Roger Staubach and Archie Manning was that Roger went to Dallas and Archie went to the Saints.

Ultimately, I think Eli will get in, but I think he will need to wait a while and he might not get in until after all these guys above go first.

winning is fun, but SB is *everything*. Marino should be booted according to that metric.

if you're only criterion for being SB-worthy is team success.

HoF-worthy, that should be

Rivers gets in before Eli.

and knows the process. Here are his thoughts on this subject:

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This election is too close to call, but I plan to vote for Manning the first time he's on the ballot, and keep voting for him every year until he gets in.

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...Let’s just say Eli Manning has had a strange and unique career. In the two years he won the Super Bowl, he played as well in the playoffs as any quarterback has ever played. He survived the frigid conditions in Green Bay to outplay Brett Favre in the 2007 NFC title game. He survived a terrible beating by the 49ers defense to knock them off on the road in the 2011 NFC title game. Each victory came in overtime. The anti-Eli argument: In the 12 other seasons of Manning’s career, not counting the one in progress, he has not won a single playoff game. He’s 8-0 in the Super Bowl seasons, but 0-4 otherwise. He has missed the playoffs six times. He has not been to the playoffs since 2011. His overall regular season record is an uninspiring 112-108. Manning is not nearly as good as his older brother. He is not Tom Brady. He’s not as good as Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But Brady is the only one of that group to win more Super Bowls than Eli, who has won as many as his brother and one more than Brees and Rodgers. He has always thrown way too much interceptions, too often makes mistakes associated with players early in their career and although his career yards and touchdowns all easily place him in the top 10, he’s never been considered an elite quarterback. But he’s been durable and reliable. He started 210 consecutive games, the second longest streak for a quarterback in NFL history, until he was benched for one game in 2017. He has never missed a game because of injury. How will all that play out in the Hall of Fame meeting room held the day before the Super Bowl?.....

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...He was never the best quarterback in the NFL at any time. But with Peyton Manning and Brady dominating the league during Eli’s career, that was never going to happen....

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....There are no recently retired quarterbacks on the ballot in the next few years who figure to get in other than Peyton Manning. Tony Romo had some great seasons, but never even made it to a conference championship game. Steve McNair is not a Hall of Famer. Neither is Donovan McNabb. Manning was running a close race with his draft classmate Ben Roethlisberger until recently. Big Ben is finishing up stronger. It will be to Manning’s benefit to retire before Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Roethlisberger and get in before they are eligible. Should Eli get in? All I can say is with the Super Bowl on the line twice, he came up big against great Patriots teams. And isn’t that how quarterbacks should be judged?

That about covers most points for and against, doesn't it?

Link - ( New Window )

The argument for Eli in the Hall of Fame is simple:

*Beat the 13-3 Cowboys at Dallas that looked like the All Madden Team. That Cowboys team wins the Super Bowl that year if not for the Giants - I really believe that.

*Out-dueled Brett Favre at Lambeau Field in the NFCCG in one of the coldest games ever played. Eli threw the ball perfectly while Favre looked cold. (Peyton Manning later called this one of the greatest games any quarterback has ever played.)

Then did it again to Aaron Rodgers.

*Beat the 49ers D at Candlestick in the rain & mud. Best D since the 2000 Ravens IMO in the most difficult possible conditions. This was an impossible situation to play QB and I don't think there's many QBs in this history of the NFL that would've finished this game, let alone won it.

*Beat Brady & Belichick in the Super Bowl....twice, including the 18-0 team.

----------

These almost unimaginable feats - the degree of difficulty is so high - are enough to get him into the Hall of Fame IMO.

Matt Ryan has been the Falcons' starter for 11 years (so a good enough sample size for a run). Over Ryan's career, he's 102-72, made 4 Pro Bowls, won an NFL MVP, and went to 1 Super Bowl which as we all know, they blew.

Numbers wise, Ryan has thrown for 295 TDs, 133 INTs, and 46720 yards over his career.

Let's just look at Eli's numbers- 360 TDs, 239 INTs, 55981 yards over a 15 year career.

So just doing some rough/dirty math, knowing there are variations because Eli didn't start all games his rookie year.

Yearly averages

Eli- 24 TDs / 16 INTs / 3732 yards
Matt Ryan- 27 TDs / 12 INTs / 4247 yards

In comment 14300634 Matt in SGS said:

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Matt Ryan has been the Falcons' starter for 11 years (so a good enough sample size for a run). Over Ryan's career, he's 102-72, made 4 Pro Bowls, won an NFL MVP, and went to 1 Super Bowl which as we all know, they blew. Numbers wise, Ryan has thrown for 295 TDs, 133 INTs, and 46720 yards over his career. Let's just look at Eli's numbers- 360 TDs, 239 INTs, 55981 yards over a 15 year career. So just doing some rough/dirty math, knowing there are variations because Eli didn't start all games his rookie year. Yearly averages Eli- 24 TDs / 16 INTs / 3732 yards Matt Ryan- 27 TDs / 12 INTs / 4247 yards

Like most of Eli’s peers, Ryan is a better regular season player. Because of his many postseason failures, I’m not saying he’s had a better career thus far. I think if the Falcons hadn’t choked away the Super Bowl, you might have ground to stand on if you think they’re at worse equals.

Will end up in the HOF however 80% of fans would not consider him a 1st time HOF that’s just the facts.

In comment 14300603 Matt in SGS said:

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I think these are very fair comments, but I still believe that the mark of a QB (particularly one with the longevity that Eli has had) you need to look at the W/L's when you look at his stats. You could make the arguement that Eli is a compiler at this point. For fun, let's look at the group we generally consider Eli's peers around the time we had that whole stupid "is Eli elite?" Michael Kay thing. Peyton Manning- 186-79, 4 Super Bowls (2-2 record) Tom Brady- 207-60, 9 Super Bowls (6-3 record) Ben Roethlisberger- 144-69-1, 2 Super Bowls (1-1 record) Drew Brees- 155-108, 1 Super Bowl (1-0 record) Phillip Rivers- 118-90, 0 Super Bowls Aaron Rodgers- 100-57-1, 1 Super Bowl (1-0 record) I think we'd agree all these guys probably going to the Hall of Fame. They all have won consistently more than Eli did. I think a bad year here and there can be excused. I just don't know if the voters will excuse so many bad years in the back half of his career to put him in. I think of his father, and it was said for many years, the only difference between Roger Staubach and Archie Manning was that Roger went to Dallas and Archie went to the Saints. Ultimately, I think Eli will get in, but I think he will need to wait a while and he might not get in until after all these guys above go first.

First, no, I would not agree that Phillip Rivers is going to the HoF. Sorry. Also, Roethlisberger went to 3 Super Bowls and has a 2-1 record (0 MVPs btw).

-The Colts went 186-79 mostly because of Peyton Manning
-The Pats went 207-60 partially because of Tom Brady. I give some of that record to Bill Belichick.
-The Steelers went 144-69 partially because of Ben but also due to great defenses and solid supporting cast.
-The Saints went 155-108 mostly because of Drew Brees
-The Chargers would have went 118-90 with or without Phillip Rivers
-The Packers went 100-57 mostly because of Aaron Rogers.

It's a team stat and although the play of the QB is very important, a team's win/loss record is still more about the team than an individual.