There is an article today at ESPN about the five moves all 32 teams should consider this off-season. For the Giants, one of the moves is to move on from Eli, which we've debated endlessly.
But there are some interesting stats about Eli's season that are noteworthy. I apologize if these have been mentioned more than I think...
By expected points metric, 30.3% of Eli's completions did not result in the Giants scoring more points. This was the highest rate in the league with QBs with at least 400 attempts.
Eli's average completion traveled 5.6 yards in the air. This was 25th in the league.
Eli was right in the mix for Mr. Garbage Time. He threw 90 passes on drives that started with the Giants having 1% or & lt; chance of winning the game. This was third in the NFL behind Cousins & Ryan.
Anyway, these offer a nice balance to the traditional stats that suggest Eli actually had a good year in total.
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In comment 14303772 bw in dc said:
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if the fine folks at Jints Central get this in-depth when evaluating Eli. Or do they simply rely on good old fashioned video and decide from there?
if so... get used to losing.. deep data is taking over sports. evolve or die..
That's always a hot topic around here. Lot of mixed opinions. When Gettleman did the impression of a nerd poking away at the pretent keyboard at his press conference last year, that certainly sent the wrong image...
What about Dorsey? He was rumored to be an early candidate before the Giants realized that the Browns had already started the interview process while Sashi was still the GM. He has gone on the record as calling them Football Nerds and doesn't need them to tell him how to evaluate players. Seems that BBI and football fans in general have ordained the Browns as the next greatest flavor.
What about Dorsey? He was rumored to be an early candidate before the Giants realized that the Browns had already started the interview process while Sashi was still the GM. He has gone on the record as calling them Football Nerds and doesn't need them to tell him how to evaluate players. Seems that BBI and football fans in general have ordained the Browns as the next greatest flavor.
Dorsey deserves credit for what appears to be a legit turnaround underway with the Browns. But I've never been a Dorsey guy at all.
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
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screen grab which is referenced a lot around here?
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
Eli still completed a higher rate than most QBs. Let’s be fair. He was consistently over 40% on them all year.
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In comment 14303757 BBelle21 said:
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Eli does keep playing even when the defense screws up at the end of some of these games. Funny that he gets knocked even for never giving up.
against second stringers...
Not even close to true.
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In comment 14303900 Default said:
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screen grab which is referenced a lot around here?
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
Eli still completed a higher rate than most QBs. Let’s be fair. He was consistently over 40% on them all year.
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In comment 14303900 Default said:
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screen grab which is referenced a lot around here?
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
Eli still completed a higher rate than most QBs. Let’s be fair. He was consistently over 40% on them all year.
I know, it was just a little Friday afternoon humor.
What up Dep!
You one hit wonders are at it again with your quick fix nostrums. You went through the coaching staff and now you are all so sure that dumping Eli before his contract is up will be the sure fire winner. This is a bad team a consequence of years of wretched drafting and trying to fix it with free agents. You think getting rid of the qb is going to fix all that.
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@DanSchneierNFL
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This Eli Manning career context will always stand out to me.
#Giants Pass Blocking Ranks, per PFF (last 8 years):
11: No. 32
O-line Link - ( New Window )
And one way to look at it is that in 2011 he thrived with the worst OL in the league. He is no longer able to rise above a lousy OL.
QBR 92.4 and 92.9.
- Manning was sacked 31 times in the first eight games and threw one touchdown pass under pressure during a 1-7 start. He produced a first down on 13 percent of his dropbacks under pressure in the first half of the season. The NFL average during that span was 19 percent.
- He had a passer rating of 87.8 over the final eight games compared with 53.1 in the first eight games.
- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
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It’s time for many to come to grips with that.
Yep and let’s take a look at these advanced metrics. What is “expected points” and what is the formula? Does having to throw to Rhett the Slug, and serial bums like Fowler, Latimer and Sheppard factor in? The low average completion is Shirmur’s offense. That’s what you all wanted and iOS very well a consequence of a) the for shit pass blocking and b) the shallow receiving Corp which results in beau coup dump offs. When you have a shit team, there is a lot of garbage time and hence a lot of garbage time stats. One tip off is that Ryan on a team with a terrible defense also had a lot of garbage time.
You one hit wonders are at it again with your quick fix nostrums. You went through the coaching staff and now you are all so sure that dumping Eli before his contract is up will be the sure fire winner. This is a bad team a consequence of years of wretched drafting and trying to fix it with free agents. You think getting rid of the qb is going to fix all that.
Haha, “one hit wonders”.... perfect.
He's good enough to not panic while the search goes on.
Personally, I think it will be a shit show if you try to overlap Eli with his successor. It was bad enough when the backups were Webb/Lauletta. Multiply that by 10 if there's a legitimate youngster.
When there's a worthy draft QB and a realistic shot to get him, dump Eli and draft away. It's be wonderful if that were this year, but don't draft one just because you're in panic mode. Bellyaching about Eli doesn't make the candidates any better.
Its not a one hit wonder view, its a prudent view...
- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
Exactly what you want to hear about your highest paid player...
Some folk are a bit more eager to move on and not quite mindful enough that moving on just to move on might lead to a worse situation.
Some people can't comprehend that just because there isn't a shiny new QB in the driveway doesn't mean the Giants aren't looking.
- Eli was below league average in accuracy % by ADOT across the board but was particularly poor on throws of 0-9 yards and 10-19 yards. Only Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen were worse than Eli in both areas
- Similarly, he was below league average in accuracy % by separation on tight window throws, step/closing and open. On throws where the defender was a step away or closing, only Nick Mullens completed a lower % of his passes.
- His passer rating when kept clean was below NFL league average but when pressured he was slightly above league average interestingly enough
- Over 50% of his throws were to open receivers
Link - ( New Window )
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- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
Exactly what you want to hear about your highest paid player...
Not true. Eli will not have the highest salary for the Giants. If you are mad, you should direct your anger at Odell, Solder, or Vernon.
Player Salaries - ( New Window )
The question is whether he'll recover if the OL is improved and he gets consistent protection. When the line improved last year, he settled down a bit, so there's hope.
We need to improve the line regardless.
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What about Dorsey? He was rumored to be an early candidate before the Giants realized that the Browns had already started the interview process while Sashi was still the GM. He has gone on the record as calling them Football Nerds and doesn't need them to tell him how to evaluate players. Seems that BBI and football fans in general have ordained the Browns as the next greatest flavor.
Dorsey deserves credit for what appears to be a legit turnaround underway with the Browns. But I've never been a Dorsey guy at all.
While Dorsey deserves credit for taking Baker number 1 the only reason they were in that position was because of the "football nerds." The Browns are the only team that have clearly actively tanked from the front office in the NFL. The next 3 years will tell the tale if this tank was worth it. Lots of top picks under rookie contracts.
Some folk are a bit more eager to move on and not quite mindful enough that moving on just to move on might lead to a worse situation.
Reaction to above comments...
Many posters on here would absolutely want a one-last go with Eli...and would think short term on moves to even gain a toothless playoff appearance. They give lip service at times otherwise but its easy to see through.
And its tough to see worse practically. We are a broken franchise in so many aspects...with holes all over the defense, bad contracts on both sides of the ball, and declining QB that has rally no chance to be a consistent winner for us ever again. Panicking at QB won't help the situation but kicking the can further also has to be looked at as a questionable strategy too.
Who did I miss?
Oh yeah, that’s right, the only think missing is the what we should be reasonably doing crew.
Anyway, the Giants know that Eli won’t play forever, I promise you all this they do in fact know. The problem is the alternative, or lack there of. When there’s a better alternative to starting the all time great, two time Super Bowl champ, yeah, they Giants will do that.
But, by no means should any reasonable facts get in the way of a good internet lynching of ol’ Easy E. What did that guy ever do around here anyway?
While Dorsey deserves credit for taking Baker number 1 the only reason they were in that position was because of the "football nerds." The Browns are the only team that have clearly actively tanked from the front office in the NFL. The next 3 years will tell the tale if this tank was worth it. Lots of top picks under rookie contracts.
Well, it's one thing to tank - and I am very pro-tank - it's another thing to execute the opportunities from the tanking. So give Dorsey for executing the picks. And it looks like he hit at least triples with three of their first four picks in Mayfield, Ward, and Chubb. Plus, Callaway was pretty effective when he played.
I just relayed the stats ESPN posted in the article. They wanted to counter new stats versus traditional stats.
Look at the stats above from Strahan91. Those are fairly telling as well.
Anyway, the Giants know that Eli won’t play forever, I promise you all this they do in fact know. The problem is the alternative, or lack there of. When there’s a better alternative to starting the all time great, two time Super Bowl champ, yeah, they Giants will do that.
But, by no means should any reasonable facts get in the way of a good internet lynching of ol’ Easy E. What did that guy ever do around here anyway?
You write something interesting - your trust in Jints Central to know when to make the transition. That is quite brave to say that...
Next stop...championship.
Who did I miss?
Oh yeah, that’s right, the only think missing is the what we should be reasonably doing crew.
Anyway, the Giants know that Eli won’t play forever, I promise you all this they do in fact know. The problem is the alternative, or lack there of. When there’s a better alternative to starting the all time great, two time Super Bowl champ, yeah, they Giants will do that.
But, by no means should any reasonable facts get in the way of a good internet lynching of ol’ Easy E. What did that guy ever do around here anyway?
Nailed it.
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In comment 14304129 Jimmy Googs said:
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- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
Exactly what you want to hear about your highest paid player...
Not true. Eli will not have the highest salary for the Giants. If you are mad, you should direct your anger at Odell, Solder, or Vernon. Player Salaries - ( New Window )
Except none of them are asked to do less for the betterment of the team...
You write something interesting - your trust in Jints Central to know when to make the transition. That is quite brave to say that...
Transition to who? Lauletta? I guess if he’s better than Eli in training camp and he shows he can run the offense in pre season. Or if Eli isn’t able to play. Of course, he’ll also need to be on the team. And sober.
Russell Wilson? He starts right after the trade is made and the season starts. Nick Folles? Hopefully never. Bridgewater? Hopefully right after Folles. Rosen? He’ll need to wait for the trade and some more time to learn from one of the greatest franchise QBs ever to play the game.
Jones, Haskins, Lock, Murray, et al? Them guys are gonna need to drafted by the Giants and then they’re gonna need to learn how to play under center, read NFL defenses, learn how to work harder than anyone else on the team, learn how to handle the media, and all the other things that a potential franchise qb needs to learn. Gee, I wonder who they might learn all that stuff from?
But, what’s your transition plan? Cut Eli and draft Sam Darnold? Yeah, that was last year and it didn’t happen. Deal. You want Bridgewater? Folles? How about Sam Bradford? Ryan Tannehill? Seriously? These guys are the very definition of JAGs (maybe not Folles but he’s a lucky fella who played on a terrific team and a heck of an offense system against an bizarrely anomalous Belichick defense).
But yeah, anyway, we’re all screwed and doomed to decades (more) of cheering for the worst franchise in the history of pro football because we have a sentimental old man, who doesn’t value line play or passing the football who’s running the franchise into the ground (after one season!) for ownership that doesn’t want to win and plans to keep Eli starting forever.
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In comment 14304235 Default said:
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In comment 14304129 Jimmy Googs said:
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- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
Exactly what you want to hear about your highest paid player...
Not true. Eli will not have the highest salary for the Giants. If you are mad, you should direct your anger at Odell, Solder, or Vernon. Player Salaries - ( New Window )
Except none of them are asked to do less for the betterment of the team...
Well, of course, because Eli always shows up to do his job. He doesn't scamper off to the locker room to get hydrated because he doesn't like how water makes his belly squishy. He doesn't take games off because he has bruises/sprains. I remember Eli separating his shoulder, but he finishes the game and shows up the next week under center to do his job. Perhaps, the others should have the same expectation of showing up to do their job? OBJ will make $16M next season - $1M for each game. Is it too much to ask that he is on the field for the full 60 minutes for that cost? Or are we going to continue to coddle him because he doesn't like water?
Big Willy.
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- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
Exactly what you want to hear about your highest paid player...
Yes. Let’s make this a debate about dollars and cents.
Cut Eli and sign a vet running in place and spending the same money. Cut and Eli and go with a kid and you’re asking the kid to steer the ship through dangerous waters when he likely won’t be ready. This is a huge risk I think we can all agree with that.
So with all that said, let’s get the hell off this stupid salary discussion. It’s lazy and useless.
Or this simple observation, that if the OL is merely average all of next season the giants offense likely scores 400 plus points in their sleep WITH Eli under center.
But never mind that.
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In comment 14303789 Southern Man said:
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@DanSchneierNFL
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This Eli Manning career context will always stand out to me.
#Giants Pass Blocking Ranks, per PFF (last 8 years):
11: No. 32
O-line Link - ( New Window )
And one way to look at it is that in 2011 he thrived with the worst OL in the league. He is no longer able to rise above a lousy OL.
QBR 92.4 and 92.9.