There is an article today at ESPN about the five moves all 32 teams should consider this off-season. For the Giants, one of the moves is to move on from Eli, which we've debated endlessly.
But there are some interesting stats about Eli's season that are noteworthy. I apologize if these have been mentioned more than I think...
By expected points metric, 30.3% of Eli's completions did not result in the Giants scoring more points. This was the highest rate in the league with QBs with at least 400 attempts.
Eli's average completion traveled 5.6 yards in the air. This was 25th in the league.
Eli was right in the mix for Mr. Garbage Time. He threw 90 passes on drives that started with the Giants having 1% or & lt; chance of winning the game. This was third in the NFL behind Cousins & Ryan.
Anyway, these offer a nice balance to the traditional stats that suggest Eli actually had a good year in total.
- A not insignificant contingent of BBI
But...the Giants are a Classy Organization (TM)!
Besides, why be hard on Eli? If he is finished then it's management who is at fault. Should Manning just quit because fans feel he is finished? No.
Given the big amount of cap savings we could get from moving on to Eli, it's time to get this done. I love what he's done for us, but I'm sick of losing football and being in QB hell.
But still stand by, better pass protection would enable Eli to have a better year.
against second stringers...
Besides, why be hard on Eli? If he is finished then it's management who is at fault. Should Manning just quit because fans feel he is finished? No.
QB is such critical position, so it does get dirty when the end is near, especially when a guy like Eli has been such a constant. It's the position with the most emotion attached to it...
And that emotion, I'm convinced, is driving management to making this decision very complicated.
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Eli does keep playing even when the defense screws up at the end of some of these games. Funny that he gets knocked even for never giving up.
against second stringers...
Not even close to true.
if so... get used to losing.. deep data is taking over sports. evolve or die..
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if the fine folks at Jints Central get this in-depth when evaluating Eli. Or do they simply rely on good old fashioned video and decide from there?
if so... get used to losing.. deep data is taking over sports. evolve or die..
That's always a hot topic around here. Lot of mixed opinions. When Gettleman did the impression of a nerd poking away at the pretent keyboard at his press conference last year, that certainly sent the wrong image...
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This Eli Manning career context will always stand out to me.
#Giants Pass Blocking Ranks, per PFF (last 8 years):
11: No. 32
12: No. 14
13: No. 31
14: No. 14
15: No. 22
16: No. 21
17: No. 27
18: No. 28
- 75% with a bottom-third PB O-line. Never had a top-10 PB O-line
Link - ( New Window )
- A not insignificant contingent of BBI
Who will also argue that all Eli needs is for the rest of the offense to be perfect and we can win with him.
I've always held out hope the DG was either trying to be funny (he does play to the crowd) or he was simply arguing his point like a BBIer would...
In other words, when "analytics" supports your point of view you use it as an undeniable FACT, but when it doesn't support your point of view you make fun of it and try to discredit the source.
I've always held out hope the DG was either trying to be funny (he does play to the crowd) or he was simply arguing his point like a BBIer would...
In other words, when "analytics" supports your point of view you use it as an undeniable FACT, but when it doesn't support your point of view you make fun of it and try to discredit the source.
It looked very sophomoric. I couldn't help but think - wearing my psych hat - that the truth in DG's humor was pouring out. He accepted that Analytics are in the game, but he's a feel/gut decision maker...
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This Eli Manning career context will always stand out to me.
#Giants Pass Blocking Ranks, per PFF (last 8 years):
11: No. 32
12: No. 14
13: No. 31
14: No. 14
15: No. 22
16: No. 21
17: No. 27
18: No. 28
- 75% with a bottom-third PB O-line. Never had a top-10 PB O-line Link - ( New Window )
This is obviously an important bit of context that many fans bring up when defending Eli, and clearly, it's not insignificant. But there's no way to rewind the clock and correct course, even if we all acknowledge how the second half of Eli's career was in many ways hamstrung by the front office's failure to provide him with an adequate OL. What the context cannot change is that Eli is 38 years old and 38 year old athletes tend to decline. 38 year old QBs who have been hit a lot because of a porous OL tend to decline. No matter how much we wish that the Giants had done a better job of giving Eli the support he needed along the way, it seems like an overly optimistic position to willfully disregard a succession plan simply because Eli had a crap OL for the past eight years.
Isn't it possible to be aware of that fact while also simultaneously wonder if the front office should be approaching it differently? Or should we all just restrict our conversation to predicting the most likely outcome for each question the team faces?
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This Eli Manning career context will always stand out to me.
#Giants Pass Blocking Ranks, per PFF (last 8 years):
11: No. 32
O-line Link - ( New Window )
And one way to look at it is that in 2011 he thrived with the worst OL in the league. He is no longer able to rise above a lousy OL.
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In comment 14303772 bw in dc said:
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if the fine folks at Jints Central get this in-depth when evaluating Eli. Or do they simply rely on good old fashioned video and decide from there?
if so... get used to losing.. deep data is taking over sports. evolve or die..
That's always a hot topic around here. Lot of mixed opinions. When Gettleman did the impression of a nerd poking away at the pretent keyboard at his press conference last year, that certainly sent the wrong image...
What about Dorsey? He was rumored to be an early candidate before the Giants realized that the Browns had already started the interview process while Sashi was still the GM. He has gone on the record as calling them Football Nerds and doesn't need them to tell him how to evaluate players. Seems that BBI and football fans in general have ordained the Browns as the next greatest flavor.
What about Dorsey? He was rumored to be an early candidate before the Giants realized that the Browns had already started the interview process while Sashi was still the GM. He has gone on the record as calling them Football Nerds and doesn't need them to tell him how to evaluate players. Seems that BBI and football fans in general have ordained the Browns as the next greatest flavor.
Dorsey deserves credit for what appears to be a legit turnaround underway with the Browns. But I've never been a Dorsey guy at all.
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
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screen grab which is referenced a lot around here?
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
Eli still completed a higher rate than most QBs. Let’s be fair. He was consistently over 40% on them all year.
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In comment 14303757 BBelle21 said:
Quote:
Eli does keep playing even when the defense screws up at the end of some of these games. Funny that he gets knocked even for never giving up.
against second stringers...
Not even close to true.
Quote:
In comment 14303900 Default said:
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screen grab which is referenced a lot around here?
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
Eli still completed a higher rate than most QBs. Let’s be fair. He was consistently over 40% on them all year.
Quote:
In comment 14303900 Default said:
Quote:
screen grab which is referenced a lot around here?
Maybe they figured out that two of those passes were thrown by Beckham?
Eli still completed a higher rate than most QBs. Let’s be fair. He was consistently over 40% on them all year.
I know, it was just a little Friday afternoon humor.
What up Dep!
You one hit wonders are at it again with your quick fix nostrums. You went through the coaching staff and now you are all so sure that dumping Eli before his contract is up will be the sure fire winner. This is a bad team a consequence of years of wretched drafting and trying to fix it with free agents. You think getting rid of the qb is going to fix all that.
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@DanSchneierNFL
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This Eli Manning career context will always stand out to me.
#Giants Pass Blocking Ranks, per PFF (last 8 years):
11: No. 32
O-line Link - ( New Window )
And one way to look at it is that in 2011 he thrived with the worst OL in the league. He is no longer able to rise above a lousy OL.
QBR 92.4 and 92.9.
- Manning was sacked 31 times in the first eight games and threw one touchdown pass under pressure during a 1-7 start. He produced a first down on 13 percent of his dropbacks under pressure in the first half of the season. The NFL average during that span was 19 percent.
- He had a passer rating of 87.8 over the final eight games compared with 53.1 in the first eight games.
- Manning's physical skills aren't going to improve at 38 years old, but his efficiency can if the Giants ask him to do less.
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It’s time for many to come to grips with that.
Yep and let’s take a look at these advanced metrics. What is “expected points” and what is the formula? Does having to throw to Rhett the Slug, and serial bums like Fowler, Latimer and Sheppard factor in? The low average completion is Shirmur’s offense. That’s what you all wanted and iOS very well a consequence of a) the for shit pass blocking and b) the shallow receiving Corp which results in beau coup dump offs. When you have a shit team, there is a lot of garbage time and hence a lot of garbage time stats. One tip off is that Ryan on a team with a terrible defense also had a lot of garbage time.
You one hit wonders are at it again with your quick fix nostrums. You went through the coaching staff and now you are all so sure that dumping Eli before his contract is up will be the sure fire winner. This is a bad team a consequence of years of wretched drafting and trying to fix it with free agents. You think getting rid of the qb is going to fix all that.
Haha, “one hit wonders”.... perfect.
He's good enough to not panic while the search goes on.
Personally, I think it will be a shit show if you try to overlap Eli with his successor. It was bad enough when the backups were Webb/Lauletta. Multiply that by 10 if there's a legitimate youngster.
When there's a worthy draft QB and a realistic shot to get him, dump Eli and draft away. It's be wonderful if that were this year, but don't draft one just because you're in panic mode. Bellyaching about Eli doesn't make the candidates any better.