year rebuild. I'm surprised at the almost unanimous vitriol the team is getting as they try to completely rework the franchise.
We say we wouldn't trade OBJ unless we got two #1s, and we got a #1, a young former #1 coming into his own who plays a position of need, plus a 3rd rounder. But it's not enough.
We have been pissed at Reese for years because he didn't do a good job of addressing the OL, but rip DG for landing Solder (albeit at an "overpay") and Zeitler for a guy we were going to release.
We were furious with DG for trading Snacks for a 5th and Apple for a 4th, saying that the return sucked. I'm gonna suggest that if they'd have traded Collins for a 3rd at the same time we'd have all been in an uproar. But now, having perhaps gotten a sense of the new price of a contract for a Safety (and I'd like to ask BBI which of us thought Safeties would get 14M a year) and knowing that Collins would hold out until the season if he was franchised, we're furious at DG for not having traded him last year. Perhaps they weren't so sure he wasn't part of the future back then, but seeing his awful coverage this year (different from his best season) they realized they weren't going to commit to him long term. But hindsight is a beautiful thing.
We are in the midst of that 2-3 year rebuild. DG is tearing down the team and unloading high priced players who either weren't living up to their salaries or were headaches and destructive to the team's culture. We have 12 picks this year. I'm going to bet that we'll have extra picks again next year. We'll also have a huge amount of cap space to make FA acquisitions then, when the team is hopefully closer to contending.
I understand the anger and frustration about losing OBJ because he's a special player, one of the few guys who brought excitement in recent years. But I think most of us are overreacting and losing perspective.
Have at me.
Too many knee-jerk reactions and people posting out of anger rather than rationality.
The disappointment comes from the fact that we've seen a number of franchise-type players have their careers end here prematurely...either from injury, bad attitude, bad luck, etc....Shockey, Cruz, Nicks, Plax, Beckham, etc. Disappointed that we didn't start the rebuilding process last year and acquire even more draft picks. Disappointed we didn't get a bit more for Beckham.
But I am very curious to see how this all plays out. They have a super-stud in Barkley. They have the makings of a decent line with two fine guards. They just need Solder to play better and find a right tackle. They've got to get 1-2 legit WRs however.
I think they will go heavy on the defense in the draft.
Yes aren’t you just pleased as punch. All of a sudden you are in support of this regimes rebuild it seems, though they couldn’t do anything right like 3 days ago? Lol.
1. Last year free agents: Solder and Ogletree are good players....don’t know what you are talking about. Solder especially came on in the second half. Ask KMack what he thinks of him. Ogletree is a playmaker with a great nose for the ball. How many pics did he get? Lattimore is okay too, got injured.
2. Last years draft was our best in quite a long time. Watch those kids improve.
3. He did pretty good with the Zeiter trade, dumping a guy who is always injured while getting the 6th best guard in the nfl
4. While we all hate to lose Odell, none of us have all the facts to really judge how Odell crossed the line. Apparently he did....even the owner who was all in on Odell jumped ship on him. And the return we got was pretty substantial...a 1st, a third, getting our fourth back (while retiring their 5th), and a guy just as good as Collins only 13 million cheaper.
5. You watch what DG does with these 12 draft picks. I guarantee 100% of us will be drooling in anticipation.
I mean no disrespect to anyone who disagrees, but you are probably speaking out of emotion because it is definitely not out of your brain.
It will be fine....we have a plan!
I have followed the team since the late 60’s and never saw the amount of roster turnover that we had last year. That told you more than anything that we were in rebuild mode and it is going to take a couple more years. So I fully expect to see a lot of turnover this year.
I have a feeling the next set of moves are going to kill a lot of the momentum I feel they gained yesterday and by adding Zeitler before that.
The data on giving a star RB a large second contract is an even larger indicator for lack of overall team success.
I love Barkley the player. But the data points to an RB being a cherry on top for a successful team not something you start a team that has very little talent with.
Until they win, the negativity will reign. For now, it is fair. We live in a results based society. Results have been bad for a while.
Call me "delusional", but i don't feel the need to get crazily negative. Whether i act like that or not, it doesn't affect the people at Giants central.
Excited to see which young guys step up this year. Also hoping Shurmur takes some steps forward (coaches can improve too)
Been hoping we'll run more 12 personnel so i am happy to hear that is coming.
And if they really do ride with Eli, which i disagree with, I hope he goes out with a better year than we expect. He's been nothing but class. As i get older, i am realizing in sports and in life that is rare.
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Cutting a bad contract off the roster and a cancer out of the locker room can only help.
Yes aren’t you just pleased as punch. All of a sudden you are in support of this regimes rebuild it seems, though they couldn’t do anything right like 3 days ago? Lol.
They've had a good couple days, but still have a long way to go to undo the damage they did last offseason.
They had 1 winning season in the prior 6 and had just gone 4-12.
They have yet to have a losing year since drafting him.
There was nothing 'universal' about the idea of this being a 2-3 year rebuild.
When the season fell apart (and there was some really bad luck in the first half of last season), they said "screw it, its time to rebuild from the bottom". And that is what they started with the mid-season trade of Snacks et al. So they are unwinding a lot of bad contracts and that is a painful process.
The hardest part is letting go of Eli, because he has been a class act for his career. But clearly, whether he gets this upcoming season or not, he isn't part of the future. So maybe if they started taking this apart right away, we would be farther along. But it isn't going to make that much difference. We have a lot of draft picks and a lot of salary cap space next year. They need to get the middle of the field right and obviously find the next giant QB. I think they would prefer to do it in that order, but who knows....
When the season fell apart (and there was some really bad luck in the first half of last season), they said "screw it, its time to rebuild from the bottom". And that is what they started with the mid-season trade of Snacks et al. So they are unwinding a lot of bad contracts and that is a painful process.
They didn't even commit to that. If they were going to trade guys and rebuild, why was Collins on this team through the year? They couldn't have gotten a return for him, instead of nothing.
You think they might have been able to get a better return on Odell Beckham with a midseason trade to a team that was hot to contend?
Yeah, I went on a rant before congratulating you on a great post YA. Clap clap
I am not convinced the Giants thought so last year.
It is ridiculous to say Giants fans as a whole thought so. Go back and re-read what was said when we signed Solder.
Giants Got Solder - ( New Window )
He gives our star future Hall of Famer a massive contract and then trades him away.
He did the same shit to Norman in Carolina too.
It also looks like Pat Shurmur is just a passenger for all of this. You wonder why other coaches didn't want to work here?
We are more and more a joke every single year.
Make a real decision to rebuild or not. The half-assing shit is not helping.
I still think DG did a poor job in FA last year, and should have traded Collins last year. But it looks like we'll get a comp pick for him. He also had an excellent draft.
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Kudos
Yeah, I went on a rant before congratulating you on a great post YA. Clap clap
Yours was pretty damn good also
There was nothing 'universal' about the idea of this being a 2-3 year rebuild.
+1.
When and how do they make the transition?
They had 1 winning season in the prior 6 and had just gone 4-12.
They have yet to have a losing year since drafting him.
Arc I posted a pretty deep analysis of all the NFLs leading rushers for the last 20 years (linked below) and how none of those teams saw any success without a QB on a discounted deal. It is extremely helpful to have both the QB and RB on a discounted deal.
The Cowboys have a QB on a discounted deal so that is in line with my analysis. The problem in this is that it is even harder to compete with the RB on his 2nd deal.
As it relates to the Giants and this rebuild, we aren't likely to have a competitive team before Barkley needs a second deal which is why having an accurate picture of if we could actually compete was pretty important prior to drafting Barkley.
Precedent for Competing with a Star RB - ( New Window )
They didn't even commit to that. If they were going to trade guys and rebuild, why was Collins on this team through the year? They couldn't have gotten a return for him, instead of nothing.
You think they might have been able to get a better return on Odell Beckham with a midseason trade to a team that was hot to contend?
I think a lot happened in terms of their evaluation of those two players in the second half that changed their mind about whether they should be part of the rebuild. But obviously, it is all speculation.
Also, a rebuild has to show signs of progress. DG spent $$$ and picks on offense and for most of the season it was dreadful
Is it the right approach? You'd have to ask me again after year 3.
I have been a believer since the start that regardless of what happened in year 1, it needed to be given more than 1 year. There's just no possible way to have fixed this in one offseason - and it's almost like fans are just aggravated by that reality and are taking their frustrations out accordingly.
I'd prefer that they were more committed to just rebuilding and less concerned about how they compete in the interim.
But, there are different ways to build a football team and I'm willing to give Dave Gettleman this offseason and probably next before I am going to be sure I either like or hate what he's doing.
So far he's done things I've liked - he's also done things I've really not liked.
I have a feeling more of the latter is coming with the QB position - but I'm not going to piss and moan over nothing. We'll cross that bridge when we get there.
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What was Dallas doing when they drafted Elliott 4th overall?
They had 1 winning season in the prior 6 and had just gone 4-12.
They have yet to have a losing year since drafting him.
Arc I posted a pretty deep analysis of all the NFLs leading rushers for the last 20 years (linked below) and how none of those teams saw any success without a QB on a discounted deal. It is extremely helpful to have both the QB and RB on a discounted deal.
The Cowboys have a QB on a discounted deal so that is in line with my analysis. The problem in this is that it is even harder to compete with the RB on his 2nd deal.
As it relates to the Giants and this rebuild, we aren't likely to have a competitive team before Barkley needs a second deal which is why having an accurate picture of if we could actually compete was pretty important prior to drafting Barkley. Precedent for Competing with a Star RB - ( New Window )
The Giants can do both, too. It's right there.
If they decide to continue paying Eli, that's a mistake in my opinion.
24 teams spent $10M+ cap on RBs:
- double digit wins: 33%
- losing record: 46%
31 teams spent $3M- cap on RBs:
- double digit wins: 48%
- losing record: 39%
Teams that won with high RB-cap hits had rookie deal QBs/QBs with cap hits outside top 10.
Spending on running backs doesn't work. The Giants already made a mistake drafting Barkley when they did - they can't compound that mistake by paying him in a couple years. Run him into the ground and then either trade him or let him walk in FA, but do NOT give him a second contract.
Again, credit above to Warren Sharp's Twitter. An engineer that decided to switch careers to tracking football stats and trends...he's a great follow on Twitter.
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In comment 14334381 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
They didn't even commit to that. If they were going to trade guys and rebuild, why was Collins on this team through the year? They couldn't have gotten a return for him, instead of nothing.
You think they might have been able to get a better return on Odell Beckham with a midseason trade to a team that was hot to contend?
I think a lot happened in terms of their evaluation of those two players in the second half that changed their mind about whether they should be part of the rebuild. But obviously, it is all speculation.
As a front office, you have a general idea in your mind what a player's ask for a re-signing is going to be. You also have a general idea for what the franchise tag is going to be before it's official. And specific to Collins, he played through a torn labrum in his shoulder after the trade deadline, played through pain, and clearly his play suffered due to it.
If they started the year and got to the trade deadline thinking he was a keeper, then suddenly they reversed course, it's alarming. Front offices don't typically get caught off guard by the potential cost of resigning their own player. They pay people salaries to forecast this type of thing.
When and how do they make the transition?
Eric, that's absolutely true. That's what keeps me worried. We have to land a young competent QB this year. Whether they cut Eli before the season (I feel certain that they won't) or keep him around to run the offense for some part of the year before handing it over to the new guy, they've got to make the transition this year.
Thanks, guys. Lots of good responses.
When and how do they make the transition?
Won't be this year since were are not drafting QB in 2019 draft.
If we do draft a QB in 2020 draft then Eli has 2 more years left.
If we don't, but draft a QB in 2021 then Eli has 3 more years left.
If we don't draft a QB by 2021....then God help us all...Eli might honestly still be here as a 42 y.o. QB 4 years from now.
When and how do they make the transition?
We make the transition with the #6 pick. Either Haskins or Murray. I think DG had a conversation with Eli after the season and told him this could be his last year with the team. They were drafting his successor and unless the team wins the Superbowl, Eli was out in 2020.
And if Eli is struggling by week 7 his Giants career is over. The next QB is coming in for good.
That's why the Giants have not extended Eli to lower his cap hit. This is it and Eli knows this.
As I said in that thread if you are going to act without precedent for a strategy its good to at least justify it with a new ideas / approach.
I agree they can do both but if you are talking in probabilities of success you are limiting yourself and your window of success by not playing them and the tendencies that have proven to create winners.
Could the Giants find a franchise QB this year or next? Absolutely they could.
Does the rest of the team construction make it difficult to form a winner even if they do strike on this not high probability event? Yes.
By having a player like Barkley on the team you really accelerate the timeline needed to have certain other pieces in place and starting that clock while also making the team worse IE trading away generational talents is not a consistent strategy if you are trying to capitalize on that window
When and how do they make the transition?
They’re waiting until the QB they really want is available. They didn’t want any of the QBs last year. It appears they don’t want any QBs this year. 2020 looks like the year, and they’ll probably give up whatever it takes to move up to get him unless they finish high enough where they don’t have to.
And it’s the right play. Change for the sake of change only sets the franchise back even further, especially at the QB position.
When and how do they make the transition?
They could draft Haskins and then that part would be done as well.
I've heard many times that paying WR's big money isn't a winning formula, but Alshon Jeffery was eating the largest portion of the Eagles' SB team cap a couple years ago.
Barkley is an asset any way you look at it. Just because he's here now doesn't mean we're married to him for 10 years.
We could get his best 4-5 years, and then use him as a chip to recoup picks, clear salary, and get younger.
Barkley being on the team in and of itself isn't a total roadblock to winning football games - we have to stop painting that picture.
I've heard many times that paying WR's big money isn't a winning formula, but Alshon Jeffery was eating the largest portion of the Eagles' SB team cap a couple years ago.
Barkley is an asset any way you look at it. Just because he's here now doesn't mean we're married to him for 10 years.
We could get his best 4-5 years, and then use him as a chip to recoup picks, clear salary, and get younger.
Barkley being on the team in and of itself isn't a total roadblock to winning football games - we have to stop painting that picture.
You can either believe the point of view or not. You've provided two examples, Sharp's has provided every example the last five years and shared the results.
Beckham should be a cautionary tale about Barkley...not with any off the field stuff, but if you're going to pay a guy huge money you have to KNOW that the guy you're paying is going to help your team compete for big things. Otherwise it isn't worth it. Just get another guy at a fraction of the price.
1. Last year free agents: Solder and Ogletree are good players....don’t know what you are talking about. Solder especially came on in the second half. Ask KMack what he thinks of him. Ogletree is a playmaker with a great nose for the ball. How many pics did he get? Lattimore is okay too, got injured.
2. Last years draft was our best in quite a long time. Watch those kids improve.
3. He did pretty good with the Zeiter trade, dumping a guy who is always injured while getting the 6th best guard in the nfl
4. While we all hate to lose Odell, none of us have all the facts to really judge how Odell crossed the line. Apparently he did....even the owner who was all in on Odell jumped ship on him. And the return we got was pretty substantial...a 1st, a third, getting our fourth back (while retiring their 5th), and a guy just as good as Collins only 13 million cheaper.
5. You watch what DG does with these 12 draft picks. I guarantee 100% of us will be drooling in anticipation.
I mean no disrespect to anyone who disagrees, but you are probably speaking out of emotion because it is definitely not out of your brain.
It will be fine....we have a plan!
Right on!
The disappointment comes from the fact that we've seen a number of franchise-type players have their careers end here prematurely...either from injury, bad attitude, bad luck, etc....Shockey, Cruz, Nicks, Plax, Beckham, etc. Disappointed that we didn't start the rebuilding process last year and acquire even more draft picks. Disappointed we didn't get a bit more for Beckham.
But I am very curious to see how this all plays out. They have a super-stud in Barkley. They have the makings of a decent line with two fine guards. They just need Solder to play better and find a right tackle. They've got to get 1-2 legit WRs however.
I think they will go heavy on the defense in the draft.
Where I have a real issue is that the notion of a 2-3 year re-build is what some (I honestly don't know if it is most or some) fans said. But, management did not. The moves last year (Omameh, for example) didn't work, but I think the expectation was a much better team. Trading Beckham now all but resigns us to more of a re-build. While I agree with you that Barkley is a super stud, we will have wasted 2-3 (more?) of the start of his career because the rest of the team will suck. Now, I still wouldn't have taken any of those QBs over him. But, I was hoping and expecting a better team last year and moving forward. Having to break down this team further puts us at risk of having another Barry Sanders here.
DG is slowly turning this ocean liner around. I see what he is doing, I like what he is doing, and I think he's making some real progress with changing the culture, and with improving the OL, the running game, and special teams. This year it's finish the OL and start on the defense. Of course, the biggest test is yet to come - Eli's replacement. But that's next year's job.
DG is slowly turning this ocean liner around. I see what he is doing, I like what he is doing, and I think he's making some real progress with changing the culture, and with improving the OL, the running game, and special teams. This year it's finish the OL and start on the defense. Of course, the biggest test is yet to come - Eli's replacement. But that's next year's job.
Two, maybe 3 years to fix the OL, then he just needs linebackers, cornerbacks, WR (they're not paying Shepard), safeties, and RB if they don't pay Saquon. I'm really psyched for the completed rebuild in 2024.
You can overhaul an aircraft carrier in 4 years, but apparent rebuilding a football team demands a 4 year window.
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A lot of stats and numbers can be moved around to frame a POV better - i.e.. Marshawn Lynch had the 3rd largest cap hit on the team when the Seahawks won the SB a few years ago - he wasn't quite @ 10M, he was just under it @ 8.5. So, the cutoffs wind up omitting players that are very close to the threshold.
I've heard many times that paying WR's big money isn't a winning formula, but Alshon Jeffery was eating the largest portion of the Eagles' SB team cap a couple years ago.
Barkley is an asset any way you look at it. Just because he's here now doesn't mean we're married to him for 10 years.
We could get his best 4-5 years, and then use him as a chip to recoup picks, clear salary, and get younger.
Barkley being on the team in and of itself isn't a total roadblock to winning football games - we have to stop painting that picture.
You can either believe the point of view or not. You've provided two examples, Sharp's has provided every example the last five years and shared the results.
Beckham should be a cautionary tale about Barkley...not with any off the field stuff, but if you're going to pay a guy huge money you have to KNOW that the guy you're paying is going to help your team compete for big things. Otherwise it isn't worth it. Just get another guy at a fraction of the price.
I literally just thought of those off the top of my head - I didn't search for them or really try to find many. I can probably think of a few others but that doesn't matter as much.
My point is, I'm not sure why he chose 10M and 3M as his datapoints. Is there a reason for that? Because you can slide those scales a few ticks in either direction and wind up with quite different results.
I also wonder if there's a difference in looking at it from a single player perspective, or a positional spending perspective.
For example, the Patriots actually allocated more cap dollars to the RB position than we did this past season. It's just spread across 3-4 backs - but they did spend a first round pick on Michel, too.
So, they're treating the position as meaningful and spending money on it. They're just not putting 90% of their eggs in one basket like we are with Barkley. Is one better than the other? I don't know - having quality spread over quantity rather than have it more concentrated may or may not be a better strategy.
Like I said - Barkley is a major asset, just because we drafted him doesn't mean we have to sign him to a gigantic 2nd contract.
If he's still playing at a high level, when his rookie deal is nearing its end, I'd re-evaluate where the team is, and if there's a way to recoup quality assets for him, add cap dollars, and get younger at that position, I am fine with that.
Experience has shown again and again that veteran free agency is not the way to rebuild a football team. Really outstanding players rarely hit vet free agency, and it is not cost efficient either.
Rebuilding requires good drafting with a little luck finding a few worthwhile rookie free agents, supplemented by a few good vet fa signings sprinkled in here and there.
I think that DG felt a responsibility to try to win last year, and DID overestimate the team's talent level. I think that he also had a mandate to try to win quickly, and tried to rebuild on the fly while doing so. He certainly turned over a LOT of the roster even before we went into the season. On a positive note, when he was convinced that the team stunk and some of its players were even worse than that, he cut Flowers, made the trades of Snacks and Apple, and he and Shurmur played a ton of kids as the season wore down. Not ideal, I agree, but at least he saw the light.
As for the QBs, I strongly believe that he'd have taken Mayfield if Cleveland had gone Barkley. So it's not that he ignored the QB issue. But even if that's incorrect (some said it would have been Chubb) I feel certain that he didn't feel confident that any of the remaining QBs were franchise QBs. We'll see if he's right, but that doesn't mean he didn't recognize that the team would have to move on from Eli sooner than later, whatever everyone has been saying publicly.
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I'm just not sold on Haskins... or any of the QBs in this draft. I need to dive deeper first. What scares me about Haskins is the limited sample size and the clips I've seen of him, there is no one around him.
Haskins is less mobile than Eli and the limited exposure he had to pressure didn't look pretty. No thank you.
This isn't true at all. Literally all of it is wrong.
Everyone saying they wanted multiple first rounders for OBJ - we were only getting that if he was traded after 2016. Not off the prior 2 injury riddled years.
Bad against pressure?
I actually completely agree with this. Herbert looked like Josh Allen to me, he has all the talent and ability but doesn’t produce. He was skipping balls off the ground in one of the games I watched him. Fromm doesn’t really do much for me either, he seems like a good kid from that documentary but He just doesn’t impress me much. Tua looks ok, but he seems to have been taking a beating in the few games I watched. I don’t see what is so incredible about him, but I also didn’t watch more than 2 games of his. I am not much of a college football guy but I do have two buddies that are professional scouts and both told me that there is no guarantee next year will be better than this year. On top of that I have known Brian Gaine a long time, he is a Rockland County guy, last I talked to him he really felt the Giants would go QB. Neither of my scout friends wanted to really answer the question as they don’t know what will happen during the season. Matt Barkley went from being a top pick to the third round after he went back.
Is Herbert the only one that is definitely coming out next year? An injury to Fromm or Tua could make a big difference in the draft.
You have to be absolutely positive these QBs won’t pan out this year because if you have the #2 followed by the #6 pick and you keep passing up on QBs you are backing yourself into a corner, wasting years, and money while trying to find someone.
However, I m one of the few that believes for the first time in a while, Giants are on track. The Beckham trade has invigorated me
Unless he pulls something big off, this is unfortunately true in a lot of regards.
Or they could be like the Rams and get lucky at the QB position and become a contender sooner. Not likely, but possible. And I'd argue that we set ourselves back one year, but that we did so in part because we weren't sold on the QBs last year so didn't get to give a rookie QB a year's experience last year. The Ogletree trade didn't hurt us very much, nor did Omameh and the rest. It was not getting the QB. But the jury's out on whether these guys are what some think they are.
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DG gave no indication of a 2-3 year rebuild......and because he guessed wrong, now let have a 2-3 year rebuild that may take 5 years or more....
Or they could be like the Rams and get lucky at the QB position and become a contender sooner. Not likely, but possible. And I'd argue that we set ourselves back one year, but that we did so in part because we weren't sold on the QBs last year so didn't get to give a rookie QB a year's experience last year. The Ogletree trade didn't hurt us very much, nor did Omameh and the rest. It was not getting the QB. But the jury's out on whether these guys are what some think they are.
The Rams traded up to 1, how’s that lucky?
Ogletree cost us a 3rd which could have been used to get a younger player.
If you like Haskins numbers, the you will really like Davis Webb’s, you know, BBI’s next savior, the guy who was better than all of the 2018 qbs. College stats are meaningless, I would have thought some of you would have learned your lesson by now .
And that's on a team that wasn't very good to begin with.
Then, there's paying Eli Manning $23M for this season. I came across this gem when looking at PFT in the comments section:
I thought it was wrong - but nope, that's how bad they've been.
Gettleman did nothing of note before being chased out the door in Carolina, and his first season here was a mess. A ton of FA money spent on a mediocre LT, the likes of Jonathan Stewart, Connor Barwin, Patrick Omameh (who didn't last the season). Then, he blew a chance at getting something before Collins walked out the door, and finally gave up and gave away Beckham for peanuts.
There's no plan at QB. The roster is still full of holes. The pro and college scouting staff are still the same guys who were running the show when Reese was here.
Coaching? Pat Shurmur took an awful lifetime coaching record and made it worse.
The upside is what, that they have a lot of picks? Plenty of cap space? The Gang That Can't Shoot Straight is suddenly going to turn this around because they monetized a few good players and turned them into prospects? Good luck.
The NFL doesn't need long term rebuilds. They could have come out of this in 2 years ready to compete, with the likes of Beckham, Barkley, Collins and a few additions, both in FA and the draft. Instead, we've had this half-assed 'build the plane while flying it' approach to a rebuild, which is neither a rebuild nor a shot at a competitive season.
It's a fucking bleak outlook, but it is what it is.
When Marshawn was making that salary Russell Wilson was making under $1M. You just made my point again. The point is there isn't an example of even one of the best RBs winning without a cheap QB. If you want to take your time and think about it go ahead. Doesn't need to be off the top of your head.
You used Jeffrey. That's actually the point that I made in my thread there is precedent for high priced receivers winning a SB. So that isn't a counter example.
What I actually did on that thread is kind of the opposite of cherry picking. I made an exhaustive list of the top running backs. There isn't one example of a talented running back especially that went high in the draft top 10, which you have to segregate because it prices them as a rookie among the top at their position overall. (Which is a fairly unique characteristic to RB)
Which leads into the larger point which is yes, it is a very good idea if you are going to go against the higher level stats to at least have a solid example of bucking the trend.
If lieu of that it's nice to have some analytical angle that say makes the case that Saquon will have a better career than say Barry Sanders.
Also as I said in the other thread I'm pretty indifferent to the pick because it is possible that he's the best ever but this logic both requires him to be the best ever and be so far and away the best ever that he does something that the other consensus best RBs in the modern era could not do.
The issue I have is calling it the "right pick" everyone wants to double down on that when the reality is there isn't right or wrong picks, just some probability that they are and picking Saquon is not playing the team building probabilities in light of our team, it's not playing the team success probabilities in light of stats like what GoTerps presented. I'm not willing to go as far as others as to say it is wrong but it most certainly wasn't the "right" pick ESPECIALLY because of how things have played out now. People want to be like oh he was so awesome this year I know it's right! No, the evidence strongly suggests that RBs are what you add to talented teams to win titles or at least when you have a discounted QB in place.
Let’s even look at where we are now let’s say we started Lauletta instead of Manning when we are 1-7 and we traded Snacks (making what was already a bad defense overall but a good run defense just terrible) we could be in a position to take Haskins or Murray without trading up. Which would actually put us in a better position to draft that discounted QB to pair with SB. We have too many holes to trade up and have a reasonable expectation of competing now. We aren’t taking consistent logical steps that even pair with moves we’ve already made to win.
Look at what the Colts did. Not saying we would nail the picks like that but it’s possible we could be sitting on Barkley still or let’s just say Nelson. The Zeitler money could have then gone to say Williams. Maybe we have Leonard too? Or Chubb and Nelson? Not saying this would be us although people do talk about DG as some transcendent drafter so seemingly more picks would be a good idea.
Anyway I know I’m beating the same drum here but it is honestly a painstaking thing for me to watch for this team to continually make decisions in game and out that don’t seem to reflect an understanding of increasing theoretical win probabilities, when other teams that seem to have the right personnel and stated organizational buy in to harness these theories doing much better than us especially recently.