Taking a step back from the Odell trade and what the Giants got back in the deal (plus all the other deals they made). And factoring in a few Gettleman choice quotes of "no guts, no glory" and referencing the "Kansas City Model", I think I'm at a place where I believe the Giants will get a QB in this draft.
A team won't send their head coach, offensive coordinator and top scout to see player's pro day, and spend time with him unless there is real interest.
So, if you are of the belief that the Giants are going to go into this season with the heir to Eli, what is out there? A trade for Josh Rosen, which will cost a 2nd or 3rd rounder and is probably the safest route because the Giants will still be able to use their first rounders to fill holes. But there are enough indications the Giants are not considering him due to any of a variety of reasons.
Haskins, Lock, Jones are all decent prospects. And all are generally considered to be at best maybe even but likely below the class of prospects we saw last year, a class that Gettleman didn't want to get involved with and opted for Saquon instead as the safest pick because he didn't want to miss at #2.
And then comes Murray. There were questions about how serious he was about playing football and if he'd go to the A's. Questions about his height and weight and if he was too small. Well, the height and weight show that while undersized, he can still be an NFL QB. He's the best of the QBs in this draft by any and all accounts. Gettleman said you can't find your franchise QB in the middle rounds, you need to draft them high.
Now is where we have to wonder the real trigger in the Odell trade, to build up enough assets to trade up to get Murray. There are only two other teams with multiple first rounders, the Raiders and Packers. The Raiders are sitting at 4, 24, and 27. I see no real way that Mayock will trade 3 first rounders to move up to #1 to get Murray while he still has Carr on the team. They will want to fill out that roster with players. We know the Packers are not trading up to get Murray with Rodgers there. Sitting at 6 and 17, to bring in first rounders this year, the Giants have the best potential immediate package (unless the Raiders trade up)
So, the next question. What would it cost? Let's look at the most recent QB trade ups, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.
In 2016, the Titans picked #1 and the Rams picked at 15 (a big jump) and the cost was reflective
The Titans got the Rams first round pick, 2 2nd round picks, and a third round pick. The following year it cost their #1 and #3. They got back the first overall (Goff) and the Titans 4th and 6th rounders.
Now the Eagles trade for Wentz with Cleveland.
The Eagles got the Browns #1 (2nd overall) and a 4th rounder the next year.
The Browns got the Eagles 1st, 3rd, 4th round pick, a 1st in 2017, and a 2nd in 2018.
Bottom line, the costs appear to be roughly what you'd expect:
- Need 2 first rounders (check thanks to the Odell trade)
- Need a 3rd rounder (check, thanks to Odell trade)
- looking at a high pick in 2020. Since the Giants have given up 2 firsts already, the price could well be a 2nd next year.
And the Giants have additional picks in the 5th round this year if need be.
Bottom line, the Giants now absolutely have the ammunition to move up to #1 this year because of the Odell trade. And they can offset the go forward cost and hold on to their first rounder next year.
So, would you do the following?
Trade up for #1 and draft Murray
Give up:
Both 2019 First round picks (6 and 17)
- 2019 3rd rounder
- 2019 5th rounder (pick one)
- 2020 2nd rounder
Maybe there are a few 4/5/6s shifting around either way, but those are the bones of the deal.
Would you pull that trigger to get Murray? I think that's the cost. The Giants have the draft capital to do it. They keep Eli to mentor for 2019 and hand the keys to Murray either later in the year or in 2020.
I'm on-board with your thinking. Loved watching Murray perform at OU this past year. The most dynamic offensive player I have ever seen in college. But the risk side of the risk-reward equation is too high for my liking to make an aggressive move up in a trade.
This is a rare, rare year loaded with defensive talent. One of the best in long, long time. We should capitalize on that pool first...
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I dont expect them to trade up into the top 5 but i wouldn't rule out a trade up from 17 when they see a guy they like start to slide. Everyone likes to throw out the "Kansas city" model sarcastically but this is would be similar to them moving up for Mahomes @ 10. a qb at 17 may not scream franchise potential but weve seen plenty go top 15.
The "Kansas City Model" was actually used by the Giants in 1993. They had Dave Brown and Kent Graham behind Phil Simms. The plan was for them to learn under Phil and one of them would win the QB competition in 1994. The problem was, neither of those guys were any good and the Giants roster wasn't good enough to even prop them up. You could say Aaron Rodgers behind Favre was the Kansas City Model too.
All it means is you have an aging QB that you plan on getting rid of, but not just yet. So sit the kid behind him and let him learn instead of throwing him to the wolves. And it also means you expect the aging QB to still be competitive and help your team win, and once they've moved on, the young guy behind him picks up with a ready made team and takes them to the next level go forward.
I'm also going by Gettleman's statement that you need to find your franchise QB early, which to me means in top 10, and probably top 5.
Matt I think you put together the tea leaves about as good as anyone here.
I see alot of logic in what you are saying to how the Front office may be thinking. They decided on Eli and made a big move , if they decide that Murray is the guy they may pull the trigger. I think the package though you mentioned is huge (even moreso than weve seen when you compare the other deals). I think itll be a little less (not much less but a little less).
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That's the kind of trade you make for a definitive can't miss prospect. Especially with all the other spots we need help at. That would put this team back 3-4 years
I'm on-board with your thinking. Loved watching Murray perform at OU this past year. The most dynamic offensive player I have ever seen in college. But the risk side of the risk-reward equation is too high for my liking to make an aggressive move up in a trade.
This is a rare, rare year loaded with defensive talent. One of the best in long, long time. We should capitalize on that pool first...
Absolutely
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They get a couple of breaks along the way and end up 8-8 with a pick around 17? It's not far fetched at all
It is absolutely far fetched to think this sorryass team wins more than 4 games.
Really. First off it’s march. Second, I’ll take that bet with you right now.
The other benefit of having our QB and still being terrible is that we will have the opportunity to a) draft another QB and trade Murray, b) trade the pick to a QB needy team to round out the roster.
If we have Murray and have an opportunity to draft Tua, Miami will give us their next 3 first rounders as Ross is in love with Tua.
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The guy on the left is the 6' 3" Haskins. The guy on the right is the 6'1" Tua. The guy in the middle who looks like a middle schooler is the guy the OP wants to trade up to get:
And we have never seen a qb fail at the nfl level because he was too short. Thanks for playing tho.
He'd be the shortest guy to take the field as a qb since Eddie Lebaron who was drafted in 1950 in the 10th round and retired in 1962. Now maybe Murray is so great that he'd be the guy to step in after nearly 70 years. At the very least, the Giants would need to install an offense around Murray which means keep him out from under center and play, as he did for OKU, almost exclusively out of the shotgun. That, in turn, changes your running game because you are now featuring the shotgun running game- delays, draws, jet sweeps with little play action which limits your star running back.
I don't think some of you recognize what a gamble it is to go up against 70 years of NFL history and build an offense around a guy who is basically the same size as some middle schoolers. It's a tough decision; if he busts, you are going to be a laughingstock. It would not surprise me to see him drop out of the first round or to have other qb's taken ahead of him.
I think Murray can definitely play, but he hasn't exactly covered himself in glory in the run up to the biggest professional day of his life.
I wouldn't make the trade.
I think Murray can definitely play, but he hasn't exactly covered himself in glory in the run up to the biggest professional day of his life.
I wouldn't make the trade.
Murray is in the same mold of Lamar Jackson in terms of running & most believe he has a far better arm. Murray + Barkley is very enticing to me, but yes it is extremely risky.
Honestly, based on what's happened the past couple days...
I'd prefer the Giants roll with Eli this year, possibly even add a year and draft our replacement in 2020. The QB class in 2020 is outstanding.
Odds are... We should have a record that could warrant one of those QBs without moving up.
So... Keep building the line and the defense. Draft our guy in 2020
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To make this type of trade I think you have to be 100% certain about the guy.
I think Murray can definitely play, but he hasn't exactly covered himself in glory in the run up to the biggest professional day of his life.
I wouldn't make the trade.
Murray is in the same mold of Lamar Jackson in terms of running & most believe he has a far better arm. Murray + Barkley is very enticing to me, but yes it is extremely risky.
So you’d be comfortable investing the first pick in a 5’10” QB to be a runner in the same sense as Jackson?
If I draft Murray I'm thinking I've got a guy for four years, and I'm not holding back anything he can do. If he gets to the four year mark and he's Mahomes, then I'll break the bank. Otherwise I move on.