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Draft strategy - the way forward

allstarjim : 3/14/2019 11:57 am
I've said numerous times that I think the time to get your next franchise QB is in the 2020 draft. When OBJ trade talks were discussed before, I'm on record as saying getting a 2020 first rounder back is paramount. That didn't happen. It's no secret I'm not enamored with this QB draft class. I do think there is potential for them, in particular Murray, Haskins, Lock, Grier, Jones, and Finley. Perhaps one or more will end up as true franchise QBs that will light up the NFL. But I'm not infatuated with any of them the way I was with Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, Andrew Luck, or even DeShaun Watson and Mitch Trubisky...or ok, I'll admit it, I was a big Blake Bortles fan...but, in my defense, I may have been biased as Bortles is from my hometown and went to my high school. And nobody bats a thousand!

So now that Gettleman has moved on from OBJ with Jabrill Peppers, the 17th and 95th pick in the NFL draft, some have speculated that the Giants may target a QB in this class. They may be right. And to be honest, I do think that's the most likely track that Gettleman will take. But allow me to proffer another possibility, and it's the way I hope the Giants ultimately go forward:

Giants trade down from 6 to perhaps Cincinatti (#11), Miami (#13), or even Washington (#15), who conceivably could want to jump some teams to get a QB, perhaps Haskins if he's there or Drew Lock. Now get that extra first rounder in 2020, a 3rd rounder in 2020, and their 2nd rounder this year. Giants probably send their 4th this year back.

Giants would still have 12 picks this year, including an extra 2nd while losing their 4th rounder, but two extra top 100 picks next year.

What could the Giants then do? Now you build this roster to be ready for a new QB to have success.

With the first two picks you can take a pass rusher like Brian Burns and a DT like Christian Wilkins. Or go OL with one of them such as Jonah Williams or Cody Ford.

With two 2nds, now you have an option to trade back into the first round to get a player, or sit tight and take additional talent. Clemson CB Trayvon Mullen I would guess would be on Gettleman's radar, or Rock Ya-Sin. And you can address WR as well with Andy Isabella or how about Deebo Samuel (a favorite of mine).

The point being, you load up on top tier talent with all the premium picks this year, and then next year, you have two 1sts...two chances to just be in position to take your QB of choice in the 2020 draft, whether it be Tua, Fromm, Herbert, Costello (who knows at this point). And when that QB takes over for the Giants, he'll have strong foundation with which to find early success. This is a team-building strategy with the QB being the most important piece, but also one with which the QB has a greater chance of early success. Additionally, you just forgo this riskier QB class (IMO), to take your shot with what should be one of the best QB draft classes in the last decade, and you have two first rounders should you need to move up in the draft to get your man.

This is the road I hope Gettleman takes...the tricky part is to find a dance partner that wants to move up to #6.
Jim, what happens if Darnold,  
mattyblue : 3/14/2019 12:18 pm : link
Murray, Haskins, Lock, or even Rosen have good careers? Even if half of them do for that matter? Iím not trying to argue with you, I am genuinely just asking. In two years if half of those QBs look good, wouldnít we have had made unbelievable mistakes? Also doesnít pinning all your hopes on possibly getting a QB in 2020? What if they play terrible this year? What if they donít come out? I am in no way judging your post or claiming to know more. I just would like to hear if others concern themselves with this?
RE: Jim, what happens if Darnold,  
The Dude : 3/14/2019 12:22 pm : link
In comment 14336480 mattyblue said:
Quote:
Murray, Haskins, Lock, or even Rosen have good careers? Even if half of them do for that matter? Iím not trying to argue with you, I am genuinely just asking. In two years if half of those QBs look good, wouldnít we have had made unbelievable mistakes? Also doesnít pinning all your hopes on possibly getting a QB in 2020? What if they play terrible this year? What if they donít come out? I am in no way judging your post or claiming to know more. I just would like to hear if others concern themselves with this?


This. ^^^ I also like how you walked on eggshells as to not offend.
Hypothetically  
madeinstars : 3/14/2019 12:26 pm : link
If Eli had retired a month ago and we had the number 1 pick, there is no way this many people on this site would be saying they don't believe in any QB in this draft class.
RE: Jim, what happens if Darnold,  
Beer Man : 3/14/2019 12:28 pm : link
In comment 14336480 mattyblue said:
Quote:
Murray, Haskins, Lock, or even Rosen have good careers? Even if half of them do for that matter? Iím not trying to argue with you, I am genuinely just asking. In two years if half of those QBs look good, wouldnít we have had made unbelievable mistakes? Also doesnít pinning all your hopes on possibly getting a QB in 2020? What if they play terrible this year? What if they donít come out? I am in no way judging your post or claiming to know more. I just would like to hear if others concern themselves with this?

No regrets at all. Its a roll of the dice. What if we pick one of them and they turn out to be the next great bust. Each team develops and evolves their evaluation system, and makes their picks based on it. Evaluation systems are all flawed which is one of the reasons they evolve. But the mistakes are made when a team strays outside of them.
Allstarjim  
Bones : 3/14/2019 12:29 pm : link
When you have the first pick in the draft, do you really need a second first rounder? I mean is it really even possible that another team will be as bad as the Giants this year?
RE: Jim, what happens if Darnold,  
LauderdaleMatty : 3/14/2019 12:29 pm : link
In comment 14336480 mattyblue said:
Quote:
Murray, Haskins, Lock, or even Rosen have good careers? Even if half of them do for that matter? Iím not trying to argue with you, I am genuinely just asking. In two years if half of those QBs look good, wouldnít we have had made unbelievable mistakes? Also doesnít pinning all your hopes on possibly getting a QB in 2020? What if they play terrible this year? What if they donít come out? I am in no way judging your post or claiming to know more. I just would like to hear if others concern themselves with this?


And what happens if they donít? Trubisky and Watson are not going to be top 5-10 QBs. the insanity over these next Tom Brady evaluations is getting old

Mahomes is the only guy in the last 4-5 years who looks special.
Nice way to move forward,  
BIGbluegermany : 3/14/2019 12:32 pm : link
if this really happened i would be absolutely okay with that!Otherwise i would be okay with a trade for Rosen,too.I want him badly last year and still believe in him
I do not want a QB with a good career....  
George from PA : 3/14/2019 12:44 pm : link
I want one who can win Super Bowls.....one who wins games in the 4th qtr....one who makes everyone better...ideally a great pocket passer who can make plays with his feet.

Andrew Luckish.

I do not want a game manager. I would hate being stuck with someone with a good career....winning enough but never all.

RE: Hypothetically  
GeorgeAdams33 : 3/14/2019 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14336511 madeinstars said:
Quote:
If Eli had retired a month ago and we had the number 1 pick, there is no way this many people on this site would be saying they don't believe in any QB in this draft class.


Not true. The people that believe shit like this need to get a grip. Our coach & GM are mart enough to know that Eli can still play. Nobody is downgrading QBs in hopes that the Giants do the same just for ole' Eli's sake.
I am very high on Fromm  
Jay on the Island : 3/14/2019 12:49 pm : link
I like Tua also but I like from more than any QB in the 2018 or 2019 draft class. In a perfect world the Giants would land the top pick and be able to grab Fromm. Alot can go wrong with waiting until 2020. What if the Giants end up picking in the 6-15 range? What if the teams with the top 2-3 picks are in desperate need for a QB also? They aren't going to trade that pick if they also need a QB. This is why it is crucial that the Giants evaluate Murray, Haskins, etc to see if they feel any of them can be franchise QB's. If they feel that one is then they would be wise to grab one now and let them sit and learn behind Eli for half a season.
RE: Allstarjim  
allstarjim : 3/14/2019 12:55 pm : link
In comment 14336517 Bones said:
Quote:
When you have the first pick in the draft, do you really need a second first rounder? I mean is it really even possible that another team will be as bad as the Giants this year?


If you have the first pick in the draft, then you have lots of holes to fill, so yes.

I don't believe the Giants will have the first pick in the draft next year. I know in the wake of the Beckham trade a lot of people are feeling immense disappointment (myself included), but don't forget there is still some talent on this team (and Saquon is one of the best players in the NFL, period), and a lot of picks coming in from the upcoming draft with which to re-stock. The Giants have made some pretty strong investment in the OL, and this Guard duo they have is pretty fantastic, with Hernandez and Zeitler.

I don't want to get into a dissertation on the roster depth, but the cupboard isn't bare and there's a lot more coming. But even if you take the pessimistic view, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Lots of stuff can happen, for example, what if Ben Roethlisberger goes down with a serious injury and misses all of 2019? Wouldn't the Steelers then be a favorite to have the top overall pick in 2020?

Having two first rounders gives us two chances to be in position, and a good amount of ammunition to move up even if we're not, so that's the point. If the Giants have the #1 overall pick, then great. They get their guy and then have another pick to improve the team, just like the Browns did last year when they got both Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward...seems to have helped them greatly.
RE: Jim, what happens if Darnold,  
allstarjim : 3/14/2019 1:05 pm : link
In comment 14336480 mattyblue said:
Quote:
Murray, Haskins, Lock, or even Rosen have good careers? Even if half of them do for that matter? Iím not trying to argue with you, I am genuinely just asking. In two years if half of those QBs look good, wouldnít we have had made unbelievable mistakes? Also doesnít pinning all your hopes on possibly getting a QB in 2020? What if they play terrible this year? What if they donít come out? I am in no way judging your post or claiming to know more. I just would like to hear if others concern themselves with this?


Hey Matty (btw Matty you should know you don't have to walk around on egg shells with me...and also, Matty is a good dude)...not sure what you mean by Darnold because he's not available to us. But if you referring to the fact that we passed on him when he was available to us, I would simply say we got the sure thing and I'm happy with the Saquon choice. As far as the others, I think each one has to be evaluated by themselves and then you have to calculate the risk.

I think the QBs in this class are too risky. I think Haskins isn't athletic enough, and that's something that diminishes, not improves. Murray not being the prototype bothers me, and there are the questions about Lock's leadership. The guy that might turn out to be the best is Will Grier, he just exudes confidence, but I don't see the Giants taking him. But to answer your question, chances are one or more of these guys will be great QBs. I just think the chances of getting an even better QB next year is greater, and further I think the bust potential in the 2020 crop is much lower. This is a franchise defining moment. You have to get this one right. If you force it on a hope and a prayer, well, see you in 5 years.

If you wait a year and get it right, then you set your franchise up for the next decade or more of football, potentially as perennial playoff contenders.

I have more confidence in the group next year to be able to do that for a franchise. In fact, I'd probably take the top 3 QBs next year over any of the QBs in this class, if they were available this year.
RE: RE: Hypothetically  
allstarjim : 3/14/2019 1:10 pm : link
In comment 14336559 GeorgeAdams33 said:
Quote:
In comment 14336511 madeinstars said:


Quote:


If Eli had retired a month ago and we had the number 1 pick, there is no way this many people on this site would be saying they don't believe in any QB in this draft class.



Not true. The people that believe shit like this need to get a grip. Our coach & GM are mart enough to know that Eli can still play. Nobody is downgrading QBs in hopes that the Giants do the same just for ole' Eli's sake.


Agreed. Believe me, I'm ready to move on from Eli. If Fromm were available this year I'd say to trade up and get him, and make it a QB competition if you want. I think Eli should retire after this season. Yeah, he can still play, but not at a playoff level, IMO. This has nothing to do with Eli whatsoever, it has everything to do with setting the next era of Giants football up for success.
for shits & giggles  
giants#1 : 3/14/2019 1:10 pm : link
Who will need a QB in 2020?

Definitely Not
KC - Mahomes
IND - Luck
HOU - Watson

Likely in the Postseason (or just missing)
NWE - Brady
GB - Rodgers
SEA - Wilson
NO - Brees
ATL - Ryan
Pitt - Big Ben
LAC - Rivers
MN - Cousins

Drafted top QB in 2018
NYJ - Darnold
AZ - Rosen
BUF - Allen
CLE - Mayfield
BAL - Jackson

8+ Win teams w/ young QBs
LAR - Goff
PHI - Wentz
DAL - Prescott
CHI - Trubisky

Young QB they like
SF - Garoppolo

What's Left
NYG - Eli
MIA - ???
CIN - ???
TEN - ???
JAX - Foles sucks, but will he win too many this year?
DEN - Flacco sucks
OAK - Does Carr bounce back?
WAS - Keenum is awful
DET - Stafford
CAR - Newton - how much more can his body take?
TAM - can Winston turn things around?

The 11 teams in the "What's Left" category are the ones I'd expect to be in the QB hunt in 2019-2020 with at least 2 grabbing one this year (Murray/Haskins). So that leaves 8 teams that the Giants will potentially be competing with for a QB in 2020 with a couple of them long shots to go QB (Jax, Det, Car).
After not going for Foles  
Pan-handler : 3/14/2019 1:13 pm : link
I would say Rosen is our next best option as we can likely use our #6 for a blue-chip hopefully instant impact Edge Rusher
RE: I do not want a QB with a good career....  
allstarjim : 3/14/2019 1:17 pm : link
In comment 14336551 George from PA said:
Quote:
I want one who can win Super Bowls.....one who wins games in the 4th qtr....one who makes everyone better...ideally a great pocket passer who can make plays with his feet.

Andrew Luckish.

I do not want a game manager. I would hate being stuck with someone with a good career....winning enough but never all.


Agreed. As I said last year, having a QB with athleticism to escape and extend plays is one of the more important features of a franchise QB in today's game, IMO. But that QB better have all the other ability of the great pocket passers playing right now as well.

Out of this class, I think Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, and Will Grier (no particular order) have the most potential, but all have question marks that the elite QB draft prospects coming out didn't have.

And I know people love Murray. I just can't get behind a guy that small playing QB. I have real questions about that body holding up in the NFL.
RE: After not going for Foles  
allstarjim : 3/14/2019 1:28 pm : link
In comment 14336657 Pan-handler said:
Quote:
I would say Rosen is our next best option as we can likely use our #6 for a blue-chip hopefully instant impact Edge Rusher


I never liked Rosen. Didn't think he was a very good prospect out of UCLA, and he didn't do anything last year to make me think he was going to be a great NFL QB. I get it, he was a first rounder and taken 10th overall last year. But I don't think he's the goods. After a 55% passing, 11 TDs to 14 INT season (14 games), I'm feeling more convinced he doesn't have it, even though it's just a rookie year. He was bad early in the season, he was bad late in the season. And I know his defenders are going to talk about how bad the team was (even though I think most don't think he had any playmakers even though he did...Christian Kirk is a real talent), but those numbers are dismal. Those are David Carr numbers.

Sure, he can turn it around, he can get better, and prove me and all of his other doubters wrong. But if I had that evaluation of him before the draft, I see no reason why I would change it after his rookie year, so I don't feel he's a good investment for this team. I think he'd be a waste of a valuable pick.
Another losing season without  
joeinpa : 3/14/2019 3:31 pm : link
The next quarterback on the roster. Yikes!
RE: for shits & giggles  
Bill L : 3/14/2019 4:15 pm : link
In comment 14336647 giants#1 said:
Quote:
Who will need a QB in 2020?

Definitely Not
KC - Mahomes
IND - Luck
HOU - Watson

Likely in the Postseason (or just missing)
NWE - Brady
GB - Rodgers
SEA - Wilson
NO - Brees
ATL - Ryan
Pitt - Big Ben
LAC - Rivers
MN - Cousins

Drafted top QB in 2018
NYJ - Darnold
AZ - Rosen
BUF - Allen
CLE - Mayfield
BAL - Jackson

8+ Win teams w/ young QBs
LAR - Goff
PHI - Wentz
DAL - Prescott
CHI - Trubisky

Young QB they like
SF - Garoppolo

What's Left
NYG - Eli
MIA - ???
CIN - ???
TEN - ???
JAX - Foles sucks, but will he win too many this year?
DEN - Flacco sucks
OAK - Does Carr bounce back?
WAS - Keenum is awful
DET - Stafford
CAR - Newton - how much more can his body take?
TAM - can Winston turn things around?

The 11 teams in the "What's Left" category are the ones I'd expect to be in the QB hunt in 2019-2020 with at least 2 grabbing one this year (Murray/Haskins). So that leaves 8 teams that the Giants will potentially be competing with for a QB in 2020 with a couple of them long shots to go QB (Jax, Det, Car).


I've been trying to make this point, so I really like your post. We compete with 8 and, say it's not Fromm, there are probably3 and maybe 4 or 5 QB's who may be qualified candidates. You also might find a team or two that will still tank for Lawrence (not us). And, some of those 8 will finish with better records than us and their trade leverage will correspondingly be lower.

I think we are sitting in a good position.
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