Banking on a QB in 2020 is very risky-

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17 (assuming a top 10 talent did not fall) to the mid 20s and acquiring some 2020 picks

100% correct
A loser strategy to count on such a thing!

would require a trade down from #6. The #17 is nice, but to drop back to the 20's will only get you a 2nd/3rd. Unless a true blue-chip prospect is at #6 (not just a very good player), then we should move down to #11 or below. The fifth year option on Top 10 picks is essentially the franchise tag at their position. Only blue-chip prospects are worthy of such a commitment. Not saying that prospect isn't deserving of a second contract, but you don't really have the 5th year option as it is too expensive. Between 11-32, the 5th year option is calculated differently where it is a legitimate option. If we can drop back and get a 2020 1st, then we need to do it.

a certain position or player in a draft over a year away. There is too much uncertainty with injury and performance. We all see how projected draft boards change wildly over the course of a college football season.

Having said that, it is also a bad idea to just grab whatever QB is available when you need one. If the Giants can’t find a QB they believe in a price that makes sense, then add talent elsewhere. That is one reason why I like the idea of getting Rosen this year if possible. He has upside and his contract does not prevent them from taking a QB in 2020 or 2021 so they can wait on the guy they want.

I don’t remember the specific trade, but I know the Saints parted with their 2019 first to move up into the mid-1st range last year. It’s not impossible if there is a coveted player on the board from a team that may already be out of the first round.

The bottom line though, we agree - gotta net the extra first next year if we can.

Next year? Sure it would be a big asset to have for a move up but couldn't we use our #1 in 2021 to accomplish the same thing? That approach got us Eli so I'm not sure why it wouldn't work again.

I realize depending on where our picks are it won't be the final piece but I'm just confused about why we'd need to acquire an extra 1 for next year when we could just use our own from the following year. Is it because of the uncertainty of what number that following year's pick will be?

is to engage in moneyball. If there is a team that is hamstrung by a player's contract and they need to get out of it without eating the dead cap hit, then we can trade for the player and that team's 1st while we eat the cap hit on our side. We will have an estimated $100M in cap space next year.

Paraphrasing, he said it needs to happen organically & you can’t force it. That’s where the Giants are now, it probably won’t be 2019 because you can’t force it at 6. That’s when you end up with Jake Locker.

I would take a flyer on another mid round prospect though.

In comment 14341575 Eman11 said:

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Next year? Sure it would be a big asset to have for a move up but couldn't we use our #1 in 2021 to accomplish the same thing? That approach got us Eli so I'm not sure why it wouldn't work again. I realize depending on where our picks are it won't be the final piece but I'm just confused about why we'd need to acquire an extra 1 for next year when we could just use our own from the following year. Is it because of the uncertainty of what number that following year's pick will be?

Very good point.

In comment 14341572 Mike from Ohio said:

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a certain position or player in a draft over a year away. There is too much uncertainty with injury and performance. We all see how projected draft boards change wildly over the course of a college football season. Having said that, it is also a bad idea to just grab whatever QB is available when you need one. If the Giants can’t find a QB they believe in a price that makes sense, then add talent elsewhere. That is one reason why I like the idea of getting Rosen this year if possible. He has upside and his contract does not prevent them from taking a QB in 2020 or 2021 so they can wait on the guy they want.

Couldn’t agree more with this as well

In comment 14341570 Diver_Down said:

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would require a trade down from #6. The #17 is nice, but to drop back to the 20's will only get you a 2nd/3rd. Unless a true blue-chip prospect is at #6 (not just a very good player), then we should move down to #11 or below. The fifth year option on Top 10 picks is essentially the franchise tag at their position. Only blue-chip prospects are worthy of such a commitment. Not saying that prospect isn't deserving of a second contract, but you don't really have the 5th year option as it is too expensive. Between 11-32, the 5th year option is calculated differently where it is a legitimate option. If we can drop back and get a 2020 1st, then we need to do it.

Gettleman has literally never traded down. So I wouldn’t hold my breath on that. And the FLOOR for this team is 6-7 wins? It is incredible to be that anyone could say that after this team won 8 games combined the last two years, but hey, to each his own.

In comment 14341575 Eman11 said:

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Next year? Sure it would be a big asset to have for a move up but couldn't we use our #1 in 2021 to accomplish the same thing? That approach got us Eli so I'm not sure why it wouldn't work again. I realize depending on where our picks are it won't be the final piece but I'm just confused about why we'd need to acquire an extra 1 for next year when we could just use our own from the following year. Is it because of the uncertainty of what number that following year's pick will be?

Absolutely, it is an option. People fall in love with draft picks and hate to part with them. But if the Giants are committed to drafting a prospect, then trading future picks to get their guy is fine with me.

Pretty much everything that could go wrong, went wrong the last 2 years.

Is a fantasy not a plan. There are so many things that could blow that up you can’t even list them all. I don’t know about DG yet but if that’s his plan we need a new GM ASAP.

In comment 14341594 BillT said:

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Is a fantasy not a plan. There are so many things that could blow that up you can’t even list them all. I don’t know about DG yet but if that’s his plan we need a new GM ASAP.

So do you think it's better to draft a QB or trade for one just to get a QB even if DG doesn't think they're the answer?

and murray won't be there. so best bet is to aim for 2020

the return of Davis Webb? (Actually, I'd take him over Daniel Jones.)

In comment 14341594 BillT said:

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Is a fantasy not a plan. There are so many things that could blow that up you can’t even list them all. I don’t know about DG yet but if that’s his plan we need a new GM ASAP.

You are spot in. You have to take the opportunities when you have them —if you’re worth anything, they don’t come by often.

I am hearing that the bengals want Haskin.

They want the Ohio St kid to stay in Ohio.


It would be nice if we can trade back to 10.....and get a 2020 1st

Hell every player picked is a risk. They have to factor EVERYTHING in to minimize that risk. Do they take Rosen who has a lot of tools but maybe some character concerns? Do they take Murray who has a low floor but high ceiling? Do they take Haskins which is more of a conservative pick IMHO? Do they wait and take Tua or Fromm which COULD be better than this and previous year's draft class but risk other teams getting one of them first? Hell do they wait until 2021 for Trevor Lawrence who's being touted as the best in all 4 draft classes?

As I've said before, Giants' fans are spoiled. You shouldn't be offended by that. We have been fortunate IMHO with our SB wins compared to the rest of the league. We still have more SB trophies than 80% of the league. Two of them are still fresh in everyone's mind. Everyone seems to demand excellence now. I wonder if my patience with this comes from being a long time fan who has been through worse over the years. Maybe it's because I get into the numbers a little more than most. I don't know but I do know I'm not panicking and I am thankful for what the Giants have already accomplished.

Historically, the QB a team goes with as an heir apparent is not successful. Mostly because whoever is picked is a risk. Far less of them become champions than those that become flops. The odds are well against us.

If it was up to me, grab Rosen with the 2nd pick. Maybe even the 1st we got from the Browns. If that happens, I don't think it will be until after the Giants' first pick during the draft. If Murray or Hankins drops to the #6, the Giants will probably take them because Cardinals will demand more for Rosen if they don't. I would prefer they get Rosen before the draft. If Eli is playing like garbage, start Rosen halfway through the season. Unless Eli takes them to the playoffs, start Rosen the next year. If Rosen sucks his first full year with the team, the Giants are probably picking high again so go all out for Trevor Lawrence in 2021. After that, who the hell knows. Phil Simms played until 1993. We went through many QBs and 10 years looking for Eli Manning. Do we think it will be faster this time picking a QB high just to pick a QB high?

I think for now, Rosen is the least amount of risk. Haskins or Murray will take at least their high #6 pick (likely more). You pretty much have to stick with that pick for several years to see how it pans out. Whereas Rosen is the cheaper option in draft capital who I feel also will take less time to evaluate in future plans. After all, he does have 1 full year in the NFL already even if it was for a team with no weapons or OL. Personally, I think there is an equal risk between Rosen, Murray, and Haskins to be great on their own. The Giants' are giving up less to try Rosen.

But there were five 1st round QBs in last years draft and we passed on them. There are options in FA and draft this year. Next year there are QBs but a good draft is only going to move them further out of reach. At some point you need to make your move. It’s the single most important piece for the future of the franchise.

In comment 14341570 Diver_Down said:

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would require a trade down from #6. The #17 is nice, but to drop back to the 20's will only get you a 2nd/3rd. Unless a true blue-chip prospect is at #6 (not just a very good player), then we should move down to #11 or below. The fifth year option on Top 10 picks is essentially the franchise tag at their position. Only blue-chip prospects are worthy of such a commitment. Not saying that prospect isn't deserving of a second contract, but you don't really have the 5th year option as it is too expensive. Between 11-32, the 5th year option is calculated differently where it is a legitimate option. If we can drop back and get a 2020 1st, then we need to do it.

But that's not DG's style to trade down, I don't see a trade down as very likely.

Haskins or Rosen guy but Rosen if available makes the most sense. Little money,a year of experience, ranked #1 or #2 by many teams even though Mayfield snuck in and became the #1 in last years what was considered to be a deep talented QB draft. If it doesn't work out we lose little and can live to look again. Obviously this is considering the Cards are considering a trade and it's reasonable.

I have said this a number of times. It seems like an awful plan to me. We passed on 4 first round QBs last year, we would most likely be passing on at least 3 (not considering availability) first round QBs this year with a number 6 and a number 2 pick, and a 17 now as well. Obviously everyone agrees you can’t force a pick but sometimes you need to take a risk “no guts no glory”. If it just happens that absolutely nothing worthwhile is available and is falls to 2020, that’s that. If you are actively planning on some guy potentially maybe coming out next year it seems crazy to me. Add to the list plenty of other teams such as Pitt, NO, NE, LAC, Miami etc.. that could have any amount of teams that end up with any amount of tradeable assets to move up in the draft to get X QB. You have no idea what will happen in a year Injuries, shitty play, not coming out etc... Again I am not saying to take a QB you don’t think would be good just for the sake of it but you can not look into the future.

If there is a way to get a QB this year, they will.

are smarter than every team taking a QB around us every year. I mean say with Darnold he got picked right after Barkley. The Jets aren’t dumb for taking him, if a team takes Lock, Haskins, Murray, Jones whoever bear are pick they aren’t being stupid because they did that. No matter whether you or I like the player/pick every GM knows more. They have a team of scouts assisting them. When I watch Fromm or Tua I don’t see Peyton Manning or Montana or Brady, that doesn’t mean they won’t be better than all of them, but you can’t tell me that any of the guys next year are some sure fire without a doubt stud QB how Luck was considered well ahead of time. That’s just me though, which essentially amount to jack shit.

In comment 14341672 Dave on the UWS said:

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If there is a way to get a QB this year, they will.

He did? I know he said no guts no glory and he wanted to get a QB for the franchise like Accorsi did but where did he say it would be this year?

Not trying to be a wise ass and apologies if I missed it, but I don't recall hearing/seeing him say that.

In comment 14341672 Dave on the UWS said:

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If there is a way to get a QB this year, they will.

and not just "a" QB. A QB this they believe will be a franchise QB that will win. Drafting the wrong QB is a five-year mistake quoting DG.

“This is the big reason people wanted a quarterback last year”

Regarding possible quarterbacks we have had expressed here:

Josh Allen. NO
Sam Darnold. NO
Josh Rosen. NO
Haskins. NO
Murray. NO
Rosen again. NO

As one of those fans, right or wrong, who wanted quarterback last season, I can’t adequately express how annoying I find this.

Guarantee if Eli has good season, we will see writte next season about Tua, Herbert and Fromm

Something to the effect it will cost too much to move up, let s keep building around Eli.

In comment 14341690 joeinpa said:

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“This is the big reason people wanted a quarterback last year” Regarding possible quarterbacks we have had expressed here: Josh Allen. NO Sam Darnold. NO Josh Rosen. NO Haskins. NO Murray. NO Rosen again. NO As one of those fans, right or wrong, who wanted quarterback last season, I can’t adequately express how annoying I find this. Guarantee if Eli has good season, we will see writte next season about Tua, Herbert and Fromm Something to the effect it will cost too much to move up, let s keep building around Eli.

Agreed Joe. I think even if we repeat something similar to last year plenty of people will gripe about next years QBs as well. It’s just the way it is.

who is the franchise QB that DG believes in? They didn't pull the trigger because there wasn't consensus on Darnold/Rosen.

OK, but now you have consensus on Haskins/Murray/Jones? That I don't see. And I agree, don't take the wrong guy just to take a guy.

Is it really wait till next year? That strategy is fraught with risk.

In comment 14341607 Eman11 said:

Quote:

In comment 14341594 BillT said: Quote: Is a fantasy not a plan. There are so many things that could blow that up you can’t even list them all. I don’t know about DG yet but if that’s his plan we need a new GM ASAP. So do you think it's better to draft a QB or trade for one just to get a QB even if DG doesn't think they're the answer?

This is stupid. I was talking about 2020. Of course DG would have to believe in who he is drafting. Geesh!

I think he was that blown away by Barkley.

The idea that you can only draft a QB is silly. It's more expensive...but you also know what you are getting.

In comment 14341723 Sean said:

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I think he was that blown away by Barkley.

It has been mentioned numerous times that there was no consensus on the QBs. DG was not picking a player without consensus at #2. If Barkley was not available, the likely pick would have been Chubb. We'll never know who liked who with regards to the QBs.

Why announce the trade before we are on the clock for that pick? We want other teams to think we are taking a QB and trade in front of us so better players drop to us at 6 and 17.

If we wait till next year they won’t even use lube. It will be an ass reaming of epic proportion. I see us between 6-9 wins. If they are dead set in one of the guys next year they should probably sell most of this years picks for picks next year

It will take luck to find Eli's successor and there is a low probability that the first guy we pick will be it. Those who think the first guy we try will be our new franchise QB are probably in for a disappointment.

My guess is that after Eli we sort through a few guys at QB that don't really measure up. This process probably takes a number of years to find the right guy. That is how it has worked in the past and I suspect the next round wil be the same.

.

In comment 14341755 jeff57 said:

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.

Agreed. My point is we are going to have a ton of competition next year.

getting 6-8 wins. Which I think is a very real possibility. And I understand why the team wants this, DG and Shurmur get to tell us how much we are “improving” like we heard in our glorious 5-11 season this year.

The problem with that was that we were still a steaming pile of crap. TBH I like Murray better than any of the QBs this year and those games we won against backup QBs in a lost seasons remains one of the biggest things that upset me about this season.

We could easily be sitting on the #1 pick right now taking Murray, still ready to re-stock the defense.

I mean what’s the best, best case scenario this season first round playoff exit? Is that worth our shot at getting a QB that can actually be the future?

What’s more even if we do get Murray this year with a trade up, is trading awaybthe capital that could rebuild or defense, was that worth it?

People were sold on the moves we made last year, they seem pretty sold on the moves this year, but right now we’ve sat on two seasons that regardless of 3 to 5 wins were just not fun to watch. The only way we really end that is with a talented QB. More talented than Eli is now.

I don't agree with the strategy at all. We could be picking 17th next year and good luck on getting one of those QBs. So if we don't get one that year than we are looking at a lot of wasted time. To me if we can get it done this year do it.

In comment 14341722 BillT said:

Quote:

In comment 14341607 Eman11 said: Quote: In comment 14341594 BillT said: Quote: Is a fantasy not a plan. There are so many things that could blow that up you can’t even list them all. I don’t know about DG yet but if that’s his plan we need a new GM ASAP. So do you think it's better to draft a QB or trade for one just to get a QB even if DG doesn't think they're the answer? This is stupid. I was talking about 2020. Of course DG would have to believe in who he is drafting. Geesh!

Why is it stupid? I was simply asking what you thought, and how was I to know what you thought without asking?

I get you think waiting till next year is risky but if you agree with not getting a QB this year if DG et al aren't sold on one, what's you're solution? Anyone can point out what's wrong with any given scenario, it's much tougher to come up with a solution.

Now obviously this is all moot if they are sold on someone this year but my question is only what if they're not?

1) Last year I believe the bills traded up from 13 to 7 to get Josh Allen and gave up a 3rd to do it. Every year is different, but it would be difficult to believe that the Giants could score next year’s first for dropping from 6 to 13;

2) DG has never traded down. There may be a first time for everything, except apparently this. Reese never traded down, and DG hasn’t either; and

3) To get Cincy to jump up and pay a hefty price, teams have to believe you’ll take Haskins. The Giants are so bad at smokescreens that everyone already knows they don’t have interest. Why would the Bengals move up to 6 when all they have to do is get to 8 or 9? The real threat is the Riaiders. If Haskins slips by them, the next threat is the Broncos, not the Jags. Teams will be jockeying to get in front of Denver, and there won’t be a crazy market for the Giants’ pick. At least not for a QB.

Gettleman is going to say what he says every year, just like Reese. We had offers for the pick, but they were pretzels or donuts or some other stupid analogy.

picking 2 and 6 two years in a row is that teams just don’t do this with 38 year old QBs. Rarely does a draft go two years without a QB you can be “sold on” IMO it’s pretty clear that it’s about the QB on our team and the sentimentality towards him.

One could even say leaking all this stuff on Murray while it’s pretty clear he goes to Arizona is tactially effective. That way they could say we did one we just couldn’t get him.

Not every successful QB is a top 10 pick.

Passing on a All Pro type for a guy who your fans want you to pick? Yeah great strategy.

This is how you get Christian Ponder, JP Loesman, and Geno Smiths playing QB

He thinks the floor is - he menions as much as 7 wins? That's crazy. He makes a correct statement and overall his post is correct how "hard' it is to go 3-13 but what he isn't taking into account how bad this team is and how easily everything could remain so pathetic. And I know some talk about the GMEN's easy schedule but other teams are saying the same thing about the GMEN too.

The still might not have a pass rush next year. Vernon was pretty decent when he played. Their secondary and/or linebackers could still be awful or just "not good."

The GMEN still have one lousy OLinemman and one subpar center. We hear how it takes time for OLInes to mesh and how litle talent there is ye the Gemn are going to make it all work immediately in one season? Teams get free agent Olinemen who were good for 1 year but lousy the next yet the GMEn are going to make it SO SURE to make it work with a few draft picks?

ANd we know if they aren't EXTREMLEY effective throughout the season our QB who is a subpar NFL QB now is going to be okay?

Las Vegas has Giants near the bottom so to suggest the floor is 7 wins is just not living in reality. That's not to say they can't hit 7 etc but the OP isn;t living in reality if he really thinks the floor is 7 games.

*But I do agree he is absolutely right that there will be a lot of competition for the top picks more than what some said -- only 7 teams. No way - as the OP says there will be more.

you’re basically resigning yourself to wasting another year of Saquon’s prime.

Is that Carr, Stafford, and Dalton would move to QB needy teams effectively taking them out of the market. Rosen and Haskins will go to QB needy teams taking them out of the market as well.

Now we’re down to 6 teams and 3 QB prospects. If the Steelers, Pats, Chargers, and Saints have the years they had this year how will they be able to offer more than the Giants to move up?

That leaves 2 teams and 3 QBs.

The only way I see the Giants not getting their guy is if they have a phenomenal 2019 season, which isn’t the worst thing in the world.