Field Yates
& #8207;Verified account @FieldYates
8m8 minutes ago
Following the first week of free agency, how many 2019 draft picks each team has:
12: NE, NYG
11: CIN
10: BUF, ARI, GB, PIT
9: WAS, DET, ATL, IND
8: CLE, OAK, BAL, KC, DEN, MIN
7: JAC, HOU, PHI, CAR, TB, LAR, MIA, LAC
6: NYJ, NO, TEN, DAL, SF
5: CHI
4: SEA
Go Terps, you got to get a little excited about some of this. Otherwise, you're just going to be miserable.
Hopefully in the 8th round
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
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My big question is which pick are we going to use on Daniel Jones? #17 is too high, but are they cool enough to sit tight and see if he falls into round 2?
Go Terps, you got to get a little excited about some of this. Otherwise, you're just going to be miserable.
I'm cautiously optimistic. I'm not even necessarily against Daniel Jones being picked.
I will say I'm actually looking forward to the season for the first time in a while. Really didn't like these past few teams.
Jones was given a 1st round grade by the Draft Advisory Board
There's no real reason to feel this way, but it's starting to feel like a foregone conclusion for me.
I know Jones doesn't have eye popping passing stats, but he's got good size and he can do a lot of things that are valued in today's game - in particular his combo of toughness in the pocket and ability to run. Were his middling passing stats the result of his own talent deficiency or the players around him? He led his team to 2 bowl wins and 2 winning seasons.
I have some semblance of faith in Shurmur's contribution to this evaluation and if they like him I don't have an issue taking him at #17.
If Dave wants Jones, he needs to trade back into the bottom of the first. The 5th year option on a QB taken outside of the top 10 is a legitimate option, especially if Jones redshirts the first year of his rookie contract.
If we go ahead and try to make the stretch assumption that Bill Belichick knows what he's doing and has reviewed the available talent (I know, it's tough to do so), the fact that the Pats are so invested in this draft speaks volumes. Why? Because we've seen in past drafts, that if Belichick doesn't believe in the available talent pool in a draft, he trades out of his picks, either for future picks or for players. Case in point, the Pats were not thrilled with the 2017 draft. They only took 4 players, and they traded out of their first and second round picks. They traded for Brandin Cooks and Kony Ealy. Now, in hindsight, Cooks and Ealy weren't all that hot, though Cooks helped the Pats make the Super Bowl.
That the Patriots like the 2019 draft talent makes me feel better about the Giants plan to focus on this draft.
If we go ahead and try to make the stretch assumption that Bill Belichick knows what he's doing and has reviewed the available talent (I know, it's tough to do so), the fact that the Pats are so invested in this draft speaks volumes. Why? Because we've seen in past drafts, that if Belichick doesn't believe in the available talent pool in a draft, he trades out of his picks, either for future picks or for players. Case in point, the Pats were not thrilled with the 2017 draft. They only took 4 players, and they traded out of their first and second round picks. They traded for Brandin Cooks and Kony Ealy. Now, in hindsight, Cooks and Ealy weren't all that hot, though Cooks helped the Pats make the Super Bowl.
That the Patriots like the 2019 draft talent makes me feel better about the Giants plan to focus on this draft.
and if they trade down several times like they've done many times?
If we go ahead and try to make the stretch assumption that Bill Belichick knows what he's doing and has reviewed the available talent (I know, it's tough to do so), the fact that the Pats are so invested in this draft speaks volumes. Why? Because we've seen in past drafts, that if Belichick doesn't believe in the available talent pool in a draft, he trades out of his picks, either for future picks or for players. Case in point, the Pats were not thrilled with the 2017 draft. They only took 4 players, and they traded out of their first and second round picks. They traded for Brandin Cooks and Kony Ealy. Now, in hindsight, Cooks and Ealy weren't all that hot, though Cooks helped the Pats make the Super Bowl.
That the Patriots like the 2019 draft talent makes me feel better about the Giants plan to focus on this draft.
Interesting point. Everyone talks about the Pats hoarding picks, but you're right, Belichek has never been afraid to move them too.
I haven't seen enough of Lock to say, but it seems like he's not getting by Elway.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
Flacco is signed for 3 years, but with no dead money remaining because of the trade, it essentially becomes a year-to-year contract that the team can release him without any consequence. Elway has been hot on Lock. It would not surprise me if Lock is selected and sits until he's ready to take over.
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not quantity, not sure why people are hung up on volume.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
What late round pick (post 4th) did the Patriots hit on?
Brady 19 years ago
Edelman 10 years ago
Marcus Cannon 8 years ago and he's probably more a product of Scarnecchia than a hit that translates. Plus he has missed a ton of games.
If by hit on picks you mean 3 in 20 years I think the Giants have probably done that.
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In comment 14346206 pjcas18 said:
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not quantity, not sure why people are hung up on volume.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
What late round pick (post 4th) did the Patriots hit on?
Brady 19 years ago
Edelman 10 years ago
Marcus Cannon 8 years ago and he's probably more a product of Scarnecchia than a hit that translates. Plus he has missed a ton of games.
If by hit on picks you mean 3 in 20 years I think the Giants have probably done that.
Look around the league man. If you’re going to be intentionally obtuse I don’t know what to tell you.
The difference between the good and bad teams is the draft. Hitting on 1’s and 2’s isn’t good enough.
Of the rest, how many do you expect to make significant contributions?
To put it real simply, there are 5 power conferences. All conference teams probably have anywhere from 20-40 draft eligible players on them. Those are the vast majority of the top 150 guys you want to correctly identify and add through the draft.
Of the rest, how many do you expect to make significant contributions?
I’m guessing you think 0.
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With 12 picks, how many do you expect to be starters?
Of the rest, how many do you expect to make significant contributions?
I’m guessing you think 0.
I'm thinking that number... At least year 1.
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In comment 14346309 WillVAB said:
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In comment 14346206 pjcas18 said:
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not quantity, not sure why people are hung up on volume.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
What late round pick (post 4th) did the Patriots hit on?
Brady 19 years ago
Edelman 10 years ago
Marcus Cannon 8 years ago and he's probably more a product of Scarnecchia than a hit that translates. Plus he has missed a ton of games.
If by hit on picks you mean 3 in 20 years I think the Giants have probably done that.
Look around the league man. If you’re going to be intentionally obtuse I don’t know what to tell you.
The difference between the good and bad teams is the draft. Hitting on 1’s and 2’s isn’t good enough.
You are the one using platitudes. "that's what the good teams do". Sure it is, provide examples, please. since my example of a "good team" didn't fit your narrative and therefore it resulted in an insult.
Of course the draft is important, but I am not going to get excited about 12 draft picks when 7 are in the 5th round or later.
That number 12 means nothing, if my view on accumulating late round picks is intentionally obtuse than I'll accept that and I'll accept you don't have a fucking clue about draft value and expectations for pick in a specific round being successful.
No one should be counting on late round draft pick success. Especially with the Giants track record.
It's like throwing darts at a board.
But you can go ahead and be giddy about loading up with 12 picks like other fans are.
Best thing that can happen with these picks is to package them and trade up (2019 or trade them for higher picks in 2020)
Of the rest, how many do you expect to make significant contributions?
Year 1 who knows rookie develop at different paces and some of it depends on depth chart, injuries, etc., but eventually the odds will probably be pretty close to this (for who will simply become a "successful" starter where success is loosely defined as starting more than 50% of their games - so Ereck Flowers and Eli Apple would probably count as successful, but it's better than a subjective measurement)
The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
it will probably mean the end of this regime sooner rather than later, and we’ll have to start all over again
You are correct that ideally we identify and target specific players and package the later round picks to move up. I myself don't put much value on late round picks.
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In comment 14346319 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 14346309 WillVAB said:
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In comment 14346206 pjcas18 said:
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not quantity, not sure why people are hung up on volume.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
What late round pick (post 4th) did the Patriots hit on?
Brady 19 years ago
Edelman 10 years ago
Marcus Cannon 8 years ago and he's probably more a product of Scarnecchia than a hit that translates. Plus he has missed a ton of games.
If by hit on picks you mean 3 in 20 years I think the Giants have probably done that.
Look around the league man. If you’re going to be intentionally obtuse I don’t know what to tell you.
The difference between the good and bad teams is the draft. Hitting on 1’s and 2’s isn’t good enough.
You are the one using platitudes. "that's what the good teams do". Sure it is, provide examples, please. since my example of a "good team" didn't fit your narrative and therefore it resulted in an insult.
Of course the draft is important, but I am not going to get excited about 12 draft picks when 7 are in the 5th round or later.
That number 12 means nothing, if my view on accumulating late round picks is intentionally obtuse than I'll accept that and I'll accept you don't have a fucking clue about draft value and expectations for pick in a specific round being successful.
No one should be counting on late round draft pick success. Especially with the Giants track record.
It's like throwing darts at a board.
But you can go ahead and be giddy about loading up with 12 picks like other fans are.
Best thing that can happen with these picks is to package them and trade up (2019 or trade them for higher picks in 2020)
You’re the one without a fucking clue. First you arbitrarily set the 4th round as the cutoff for your tired argument. Then you use the Pats to support your argument who are essentially an exception to every rule. Yawn.
If the Giants hit on all of their picks up to your arbitrary cutoff, that’s a win. That’s 6 high quality players. That’s a huge win when everyone else is getting 2-3 at best.
Setting that aside for a moment, take a look at the rosters of playoff teams. Tyreke Hill was a 5th rounder. There are plenty of late rounders in the trenches littered throughout those teams. Go do some research.
Stats in a vacuum don’t mean shit. The good teams are simply hitting on more players in the draft.
I didn't arbitrarily pick the 4th round. I picked the round where historically it can be viewed as statistically the cut off between where you should realistically have any expectations of getting a contribution from a draft pick.
Of course stats in a vacuum are meaningless, but over time statistics like these represent a mean that eventually all teams get close to.
Hitting on late round picks happens, but it's literally an anomaly league wide, for good teams and bad teams and not a pattern for any team.
I'd say (my estimate) you have a better chance of a UDFA becoming a starter than a 6th or 7th round pick, maybe even 5th. Of course there are hundreds of UDFA's and only 75 or so, 6th/7th round picks so the numbers favor UDFAs in pure volume, but anyway point still stands about people having unrealistic expectations for an accumulation of draft picks.
There might be a starter from the bottom 7, but odds are against it whether you are the Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Saints or even the Giants.
When was Missouri in the Rose Bowl?
I didn't arbitrarily pick the 4th round. I picked the round where historically it can be viewed as statistically the cut off between where you should realistically have any expectations of getting a contribution from a draft pick.
Of course stats in a vacuum are meaningless, but over time statistics like these represent a mean that eventually all teams get close to.
Hitting on late round picks happens, but it's literally an anomaly league wide, for good teams and bad teams and not a pattern for any team.
I'd say (my estimate) you have a better chance of a UDFA becoming a starter than a 6th or 7th round pick, maybe even 5th. Of course there are hundreds of UDFA's and only 75 or so, 6th/7th round picks so the numbers favor UDFAs in pure volume, but anyway point still stands about people having unrealistic expectations for an accumulation of draft picks.
There might be a starter from the bottom 7, but odds are against it whether you are the Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Saints or even the Giants.
All good.
I’m not arguing that your stats are wrong or inaccurate. All I’m saying is that the good teams are getting more out of their drafts than the bad teams.
Is it luck or random? Maybe. That would certainly help explain the variance in playoff teams year to year. That would help explain the wax and wain of teams over longer periods of time.
I’m not even saying they have to stand pat with their 12 picks and pick a guy at every slot. But the immediate and long term future of this franchise is heavily dependent on this draft. If they nail more picks than the rest of the league they’re going to be set up for a long time — whether they pick 12 players or package some of the later picks for 3rd or 4th rounders. If they fuck this up heads will roll.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
The problem may not be so much that the Giants have a terrible record of developing late round picks as it is that dthe Giants' late round picks have been too crappy to develop. Nobody has a close to perfect drafting record, but if you have a solid concept for drafting, these extra picks give you a better chance of hitting on some.
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in the Rose Bowl and did not like his arm strength. I saw nothing that said he would be an answer at QB after ELi. Jones looked like he had a chance.I would not be surprised if Belichick grabbed Jones before us.
When was Missouri in the Rose Bowl?
My bad I saw Browning in the Rose Bowl and thought he struggled with arm strength. Lock has had quite a few big games and played the tougher schedule as others have mentioned. No way I would take either at 6 but 17 is a big decision. In second round I would take one of the two if available with the edge to Jones. Not having to start next year would help both players.
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My big question is which pick are we going to use on Daniel Jones? #17 is too high, but are they cool enough to sit tight and see if he falls into round 2?
How much does your vagina ache on a daily basis? I mean do you have crabs, are your lips burnt off or have you just not shaved the fucking thing in too long? Please regale us with stories of your sloppy wet fucking pussy.
I don't mind people giving me shit, but at least be funny about it.
I wasn't even complaining in my post. I think someone's off his meds.
#2
#34
#66
#69
No wonder we hit on all 4 of those.
But hoping picks up near #100 and later are going to turn into above-average starters (which I'm assuming you all are hoping, so as to have an ABOVE-AVERAGE team) it's just historically-speaking very unlikely. I'll be happy if 1 of those last 9 guys ends up a decent starter, if it's 2 then DG should automatically be put into the Ring of Honor. I doubt it will be 2 though.
#6
#17
#37
Those 3 I am excited about, unfortunately those aren't enough picks to fill the 15 massive holes we have on offense and defense combined.
got a great QB on the cheap which allowed them to grab
Free agents ect but I loved last years draft with one
exception Lauletta but I think they were not impressed with
Webb so now we have cleared some would be malcontents
this team can turn around rather quickly . I was amped
about Getting Barkley . I have confidence in DG this
year even the late rounds will be fun .
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
The Giants have a terrible recent record of developing ALL their draft picks. Only a scant few have shown early promise and then fulfilled that promise for years to come.
Like, just one really. And even he isn't on the team anymore.
Of the rest, how many do you expect to make significant contributions?
I doubt we make more than 8 picks, maybe 9 at a push. Gettleman's previous MO is to use late and mid round picks to move up in spots for players he's enamored with. He won't move back.
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In comment 14346206 pjcas18 said:
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not quantity, not sure why people are hung up on volume.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
What late round pick (post 4th) did the Patriots hit on?
Brady 19 years ago
Edelman 10 years ago
Marcus Cannon 8 years ago and he's probably more a product of Scarnecchia than a hit that translates. Plus he has missed a ton of games.
If by hit on picks you mean 3 in 20 years I think the Giants have probably done that.
"Hit" doesn't need to be a star. Getting solid starters out of late round picks is valuable and keeps you from having to spend money on guys like Ellison.
Elandon Roberts (6th rd): 30 starts since being drafted in 2016
Trey Flowers (4th rd): 21 sacks, just got $18M per in FA
Shaq Mason (4th rd): 55 starts in 4 years
James WHite (4th rd): 1176 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs last season; averaged ~600 yds/season the previous 3 years
Cameron Fleming (4th rd): only 20 starts in 4 years with them, but versatile backup OL
Though I do agree with your general point that they need to use those extra late (4th round+) picks to move up aggressively and/or acquire additional higher round picks in 2020.
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In comment 14346309 WillVAB said:
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In comment 14346206 pjcas18 said:
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not quantity, not sure why people are hung up on volume.
8 of these 12 picks have a very low chance of ever becoming a starter and less than that a significant contributor.
I'd definitely move 2019 picks for better 2020 picks.
The Giants have a terrible track record of developing late round draft picks, not saying punt on them, but no idea why fans want to accumulate more of them.
If the Giants want to be a good team they have to hit on some later round picks. That’s what the good teams do.
What late round pick (post 4th) did the Patriots hit on?
Brady 19 years ago
Edelman 10 years ago
Marcus Cannon 8 years ago and he's probably more a product of Scarnecchia than a hit that translates. Plus he has missed a ton of games.
If by hit on picks you mean 3 in 20 years I think the Giants have probably done that.
"Hit" doesn't need to be a star. Getting solid starters out of late round picks is valuable and keeps you from having to spend money on guys like Ellison.
Elandon Roberts (6th rd): 30 starts since being drafted in 2016
Trey Flowers (4th rd): 21 sacks, just got $18M per in FA
Shaq Mason (4th rd): 55 starts in 4 years
James WHite (4th rd): 1176 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs last season; averaged ~600 yds/season the previous 3 years
Cameron Fleming (4th rd): only 20 starts in 4 years with them, but versatile backup OL
Though I do agree with your general point that they need to use those extra late (4th round+) picks to move up aggressively and/or acquire additional higher round picks in 2020.
Technically I used 5th round as a cutoff - because I view 4th round as still having a reasonable expectation or at least a statistical chance a pick could contribute based on position, so you can add Elandon Roberts to my list, if you count him as successful, but agree otherwise.