Charlie Weiss's Breakdown of Daniel Jones

the two things you need to be good as a QB in the NFL

from a QB guru, but the lack of velocity on his passes was apparent at the two games I saw him live. Just sort of looked a little strange, almost like throws to the hashes were floating a bit.

I know he was paired against Lawrence in one of the games, but the differences were pretty apparent.

I can't say I've seen many guys play live where I'm thinking "meh" that turned out to be fantastic.

In comment 14348908 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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from a QB guru, but the lack of velocity on his passes was apparent at the two games I saw him live. Just sort of looked a little strange, almost like throws to the hashes were floating a bit. I know he was paired against Lawrence in one of the games, but the differences were pretty apparent. I can't say I've seen many guys play live where I'm thinking "meh" that turned out to be fantastic.

Funny you used the word floating and that was what Weiss said at end of his breakdown. The deep passes were just floated out there.

DJ is also accurate throwing on the run.

The whole comp % is puzzling.

Is it because the talent around him is lacking or he is not throwing his guys open or he just not a very accurate qb?

Also the drops. I believe there were 38 last year. is that on the receivers or because he doesn't throw a very catchable ball?

Is usually a bad sign.

I thought this FiveThirtyEight breakdown of the incoming QBs was interesting (yes, I know they did not correctly predict the 2016 election); of all the prospects outside of Murray, Finley was graded out as the best: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

Here's Our Lad's breakdown from this year's combine.

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Ourlads’ Guide to the NFL Draft is the only source that gives the number for the quarterback’s velocity at the NFL Combine. Velocity is measured by a radar gun in miles per hour. Year: 2019 Will Grier West Virginia 58 (Left) 59 (Right) Brett Rypien Boise State 59 (Left) 56 (Right) Clayton Thorson Northwestern 58 (Left) 56 (Right) Nick Fitzgerald Mississippi State 57 (Left) 52 (Right) Jordan Ta'amu Mississippi 56 (Left) 55 (Right) Gardner Minshew Washington State 55 (Left) 53 (Right) Ryan Finley North Carolina State 55 (Left) 52 (Right) Tyree Jackson Buffalo 54 (Left) 54 (Right) Daniel Jones Duke 53 (Left) 54 (Right) Drew Lock Missouri 54 (Left) 53 (Right) Easton Stick North Dakota State 53 (Left) 54 (Right) Jake Browning Washington 54 (Left) 52 (Right) Trace McSorley Penn State 53 (Left) 52 (Right) Jarrett Stidham Auburn 53 (Left) 52 (Right) Dwayne Haskins Ohio State 52 (Left) 52 (Right) Kyle Shurmer Vanderbilt 52 (Left) 50 (Right) Kyler Murray Oklahoma did not throw

In comment 14348908 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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from a QB guru,

Boy, he posts would start out with something like what is above, which says I am not an expert, but this is my opinion.

For some reason I think there would be more conversation and less arguing.

how to describe the throws:

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Funny you used the word floating and that was what Weiss said at end of his breakdown. The deep passes were just floated out there

It was almost like the passes looked like they took extra time to get to the receivers. Just something off about it.

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completion percentage is lower than it would have otherwise been because his receivers dropped a ton of passes and his OL was poor. My concern is what others have noted, namely a lack of arm strength. Does he have the arm strength to throw a 20 yard out from the middle of the field in the NFL? I don't know. Of course, Shurmur said arm strength is fourth or fifth on his list of what he looks for in a QB.

Jones has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than Lock. Lock has a much better arm, but his mechanics are poor.

But even accounting for all the drops and his poor OL, I'm not sure Jones is better than Finley. I wouldn't hate Jones or Lock at #17, but would prefer to pass on both. Finley in the third is certainly a better option, although I think he's pretty much reached his ceiling as well. I'd prefer to pass on all the QBs this year, and instead use our draft capital to improve the rest of the team.

Too many things about Jones that I don't like.

The deep ball just looks like it dies on him. The program, the completion percentage, the numbers not being great...

This guy screams "average" to me.

Average is not what we're looking for.

to active, successful NFL QBs.

How many current starters have an arm in the low 50s? Just having the number for the 2019 class doesn't tell me much.

In comment 14348919 Lambuth_Special said:

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Is usually a bad sign. I thought this FiveThirtyEight breakdown of the incoming QBs was interesting (yes, I know they did not correctly predict the 2016 election); of all the prospects outside of Murray, Finley was graded out as the best: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

Lambuth, there's a lot of intriguing analysis there, not necessarily accurate in being predictive, but seems to identify trends well.

In comment 14348929 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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how to describe the throws: Quote: Funny you used the word floating and that was what Weiss said at end of his breakdown. The deep passes were just floated out there It was almost like the passes looked like they took extra time to get to the receivers. Just something off about it.

I agree with the arm strength problem and as an aside, it is comically apparent how weak Lauletta's arm is (reminds me of Danny Kanell) but I digress.

However, this reminds me of when Shurmer said that arm strength is like the 5th thing he looks for in a QB. Makes me think that Jones might be in the mix at 17. Hope I am wrong.

He wasn’t all that impressive on the intermediate throws, and he basically needed a running head start on his deep throws. Running head start is an exaggeration, but he was taking 2 or 3 steps forward every time to give himself momentum to throw deep, how is that going to work out in a game situation with Fletcher Cox it someone in his face?

People can try to cite the Manning connections and physical similarities, but there was never any question about arm strength for Peyton or Eli coming out.

In comment 14348957 Ten Ton Hammer said:

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to active, successful NFL QBs. How many current starters have an arm in the low 50s? Just having the number for the 2019 class doesn't tell me much.

Velocity numbers don’t correlate to as much you’d think.
Velocity - ( New Window )

In comment 14348957 Ten Ton Hammer said:

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to active, successful NFL QBs. How many current starters have an arm in the low 50s? Just having the number for the 2019 class doesn't tell me much.

Kyle Lauletta Richmond 52 (Left) 52 (Right)

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is still being talked about as a high round possibility.

If he wasn’t tied to Cutcliffe would he even be mentioned with Jackson, Minshew and Stick?

Where are the pluses?

He’s a decent athlete.
He is reasonably mobile.
He runs okay.
His arm is average.
He’s apparently bright.
His college stats are about average.
His completion percentage is average.
He has no signature wins.
He does have good size.

This is the profile of a fourth round pick - tops.

PFF says statistically Duke WR dropped more passes for him than any other team in the country and I believe it was somewhere around 5 per game - and that shows up in any game of his you watch. So even if you reduce that number by 1 or 2 drops per game it makes a big impact. 20 less drops (less than 2 per game) and he's a 65% passer.

Also PFF had them drop more deep passes than any other WR group in the country.

Part of the allure of Jones is how weak his supporting cast was and that had they been better he'd have been much better statistically.

In comment 14348991 mavric said:

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In comment 14348957 Ten Ton Hammer said: Quote: to active, successful NFL QBs. How many current starters have an arm in the low 50s? Just having the number for the 2019 class doesn't tell me much. Kyle Lauletta Richmond 52 (Left) 52 (Right)

Yikes, but weird, because Lauletta and Haskins couldn't look more different throwing the ball.

Lauletta looks like he's maxing out on deep throws and I haven't seen Haskins struggle like that.

In comment 14349008 Eric on Li said:

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Part of the allure of Jones is how weak his supporting cast was and that had they been better he'd have been much better statistically.

He was around top talent at the Senior Bowl. And aside from the bullish-t MVP in the game, Jones was not impressive when it mattered - the drills.

In comment 14349004 bw in dc said:

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is still being talked about as a high round possibility. If he wasn’t tied to Cutcliffe would he even be mentioned with Jackson, Minshew and Stick? Where are the pluses? He’s a decent athlete. He is reasonably mobile. He runs okay. His arm is average. He’s apparently bright. His college stats are about average. His completion percentage is average. He has no signature wins. He does have good size. This is the profile of a fourth round pick - tops.

He won 2 straight bowl games at Duke. You know how many bowl games they won in the previous 5+ decades? 1.

He also beat a ranked Miami team on the road this year who had a top 5 defense and has a bunch of guys going to the NFL that effectively ended their chances in the ACC.

But sure, no "signature wins".

IMO Jones' most impressive performance was at Clemson. I'd encourage you to watch at least the first 5 minutes of this because despite numerous drops he went toe to toe with the national champs defense chock full of first rounders. Christian Wilkins in particular was dominant. Jones showed elusiveness and mobility against NFL caliber pass rushers, the ability to play against a top unit and protect the football, scan the field and deliver it accurately while getting hit a lot, and aggressiveness to take shots downfield. Had his WR caught the deep ball he delivered that hit him in both hands at the 5 yard line they probably end up with a lead at half time. His receivers easily left about 100 yards on the field in this one.
Jones vs. Clemson - ( New Window )

In Metlife, especially in late fall, his arm strength is very concerning, it was very apparent the amount of loft he needed to get the ball downfield.

I watched the entire Duke v Clemson game just to hone in on Jones. I wanted to like him and support him. But most of the game I didn’t see anything that blew me away. Was there a signature play for you that screamed top prospect?

Teams are going 8 in the box and cover 1 against us.

Our QB must be able to go over the top without hanging the up long enough for that S to get there. And must be able to do this largely with arm rather than javelin run forward.

Previous study results after a couple years in the NFL. They do not provide MPH numbers like the newer studies.

Tom Brady: "weak arm with low to average velocity, needs to use proper footwork in order to generate some velocity on throws"

Eli Manning: "makes a lot of difficult throws and is one of the better deep throwers in the draft"

Philip Rivers: "one of the best quarterbacks in the league and a big reason why is his arm strength"

Matt Ryan: "checks in at No. 20 on the arm strength power rankings"

Andrew Luck: "if there's one weakness that people can single out and criticize, it's his arm strength. He doesn't have a weak arm nor does he have a howitzer attached to his shoulder, but the ball still gets to his intended target"

Ben Roethlisberger: "He's got exceptional arm strength, even though it doesn't always appear to be based off sheer strength. He's able to make throws without resetting his feet and while unbalanced"

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It's obvious that arm velocity does not a QB make...Brady's rings prove that. If arm velocity was most important, then QB's most people have never heard of would have been the best players in history. BTW, Josh Allen ranks as the highest velocity on a thrown ball at the combine since velocity started being measured in 2008. Two years ago, Davis Webb had the best velocity of all QB's at the combine.

A QB needs to have the true heart of a football player (hardest to measure), knows by instinct how to win - something he is born with and cannot be taught, and especially, a good offensive line that allows his natural abilities to shine

I suggest you look at Jones’s stats against Miami this year. Notice the 17.6 number.

Uh, the two bowl games were Temple and N. Illinois.

Those are some “signature” wins...

In comment 14348908 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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from a QB guru.

Oh no, you really think you are.

In comment 14349043 bw in dc said:

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I watched the entire Duke v Clemson game just to hone in on Jones. I wanted to like him and support him. But most of the game I didn’t see anything that blew me away. Was there a signature play for you that screamed top prospect?

I don't think 1 play ever makes a guy a top prospect or not, but I would say the entire series that started at his own 1 yard line (:47 on link I posted). Here's what stood out on that drive:

Most impressive play was the play action rollout where he delivered a strike from across his body from his own 45 yard line, fall back while getting hit by Clelin Ferrell, that hit his WR in both hands at the 7 yard line. (1:20). That would have had them in position to complete a 99 yard drive against the nat'l champs and go out to a 7-0 lead (he did keep the drive moving despite the drop to take a 3-0 lead). On that same drive he also completed a number of other passes scanning the field and coming back to his 2nd/3rd options.

The other play I'd point you to in that game was his scramble out of another sack by Ferrell where he almost got a 1st down on 3rd & 15 (4:47). That was halfway through the 2Q in a 7-6 game. If he doesn't gain yards there it's a punt from the 50 yard line or worse if he gets sacked. He got the ball to 4th & 4 from the 35 yard line and then converted that 4th down into a first down.

Kyle Lauletta... No thanks

at the combine when he hop stepped back toward the the line of scrimmage to put everything into the passes.

In comment 14349053 bw in dc said:

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I suggest you look at Jones’s stats against Miami this year. Notice the 17.6 number. Uh, the two bowl games were Temple and N. Illinois. Those are some “signature” wins...

I suggest you actually look and see what happened in the miami because there was a literal monsoon + a flooded field. Miami's QB's only threw for 111 yards. Duke went ahead on the only td in the 2nd half on a drive led by Jones to the goal line, he just didn't score the TD.

at the senior bowl, his long ball looked like floating ducks more often than not.

In comment 14349024 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14349004 bw in dc said: Quote: is still being talked about as a high round possibility. If he wasn’t tied to Cutcliffe would he even be mentioned with Jackson, Minshew and Stick? Where are the pluses? He’s a decent athlete. He is reasonably mobile. He runs okay. His arm is average. He’s apparently bright. His college stats are about average. His completion percentage is average. He has no signature wins. He does have good size. This is the profile of a fourth round pick - tops. He won 2 straight bowl games at Duke. You know how many bowl games they won in the previous 5+ decades? 1. He also beat a ranked Miami team on the road this year who had a top 5 defense and has a bunch of guys going to the NFL that effectively ended their chances in the ACC. But sure, no "signature wins". IMO Jones' most impressive performance was at Clemson. I'd encourage you to watch at least the first 5 minutes of this because despite numerous drops he went toe to toe with the national champs defense chock full of first rounders. Christian Wilkins in particular was dominant. Jones showed elusiveness and mobility against NFL caliber pass rushers, the ability to play against a top unit and protect the football, scan the field and deliver it accurately while getting hit a lot, and aggressiveness to take shots downfield. Had his WR caught the deep ball he delivered that hit him in both hands at the 5 yard line they probably end up with a lead at half time. His receivers easily left about 100 yards on the field in this one. Jones vs. Clemson - ( New Window )

Not seeing it Eric. I saw one throw that stood out early on. Other than that, it was not pretty.

Now I do get that they were playing Clemson, so the best thing that could be said is that there is not much info there, but that is the best that could be said.

Of course, he obviously has experience in throwing desperately from a rapidly collapsing pocket, so that might be a perfect fit (j/k)

..was something I immediately noticed at his combine workout, as others have pointed out.

The guy that threw right after him looked totally fluid with more arm strength (think it might have been Finley).

at neutral sites.

6 weeks earlier Jones kept his crappy Duke team in the game against them through 3Q, on the road, with just 1 other combine invite on offense.

In comment 14348979 Mike in NJ said:

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He wasn’t all that impressive on the intermediate throws, and he basically needed a running head start on his deep throws. Running head start is an exaggeration, but he was taking 2 or 3 steps forward every time to give himself momentum to throw deep, how is that going to work out in a game situation with Fletcher Cox it someone in his face? People can try to cite the Manning connections and physical similarities, but there was never any question about arm strength for Peyton or Eli coming out.

That's exactly what I observed as well. In watching some game video on him he also did the same on a few deep throws as well.

because think he could already be a Giant target late first or early cecond round. His comparisons to the Mannings and background and personality seem to fit right in to this organization. Perfect candidate to sit and learn for a year or two behind ELI. Arm strength did not stop them from taking Laulettta. Short and medium length accuracy fits a plan featuring a ball control attack featuring a running back like Barkley behind a hog mollie OL.
Which we are building as we speak. MO.

If the guy was in a deep ball offense. But he was dinking and dunking all year long. Not sure what people see in this guy besides Cutcliffe and the height and weight.

In comment 14349085 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14349053 bw in dc said: Quote: I suggest you look at Jones’s stats against Miami this year. Notice the 17.6 number. Uh, the two bowl games were Temple and N. Illinois. Those are some “signature” wins... I suggest you actually look and see what happened in the miami because there was a literal monsoon + a flooded field. Miami's QB's only threw for 111 yards. Duke went ahead on the only td in the 2nd half on a drive led by Jones to the goal line, he just didn't score the TD.

Why are you using that Miami game as a benchmark. I don't think I've seen a game where the weather dictated the game more than anything in my life.

In comment 14349004 bw in dc said:

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is still being talked about as a high round possibility. If he wasn’t tied to Cutcliffe would he even be mentioned

NOPE

In comment 14349280 Zeke's Alibi said:

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In comment 14349085 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14349053 bw in dc said: Quote: I suggest you look at Jones’s stats against Miami this year. Notice the 17.6 number. Uh, the two bowl games were Temple and N. Illinois. Those are some “signature” wins... I suggest you actually look and see what happened in the miami because there was a literal monsoon + a flooded field. Miami's QB's only threw for 111 yards. Duke went ahead on the only td in the 2nd half on a drive led by Jones to the goal line, he just didn't score the TD. Why are you using that Miami game as a benchmark. I don't think I've seen a game where the weather dictated the game more than anything in my life.

I'm not using it as a benchmark, it was in response to a comment that he didn't have any wins against good teams. Considering the weather (and as a miami fan) I thought Jones played well in that game.

In comment 14349085 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 14349053 bw in dc said: Quote: I suggest you look at Jones’s stats against Miami this year. Notice the 17.6 number. Uh, the two bowl games were Temple and N. Illinois. Those are some “signature” wins... I suggest you actually look and see what happened in the miami because there was a literal monsoon + a flooded field. Miami's QB's only threw for 111 yards. Duke went ahead on the only td in the 2nd half on a drive led by Jones to the goal line, he just didn't score the TD.

I get it. But you are the one who cited it as a signature win. And it's a game that doesn't help your case for Jones.

In comment 14348908 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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from a QB guru, but the lack of velocity on his passes was apparent at the two games I saw him live. Just sort of looked a little strange, almost like throws to the hashes were floating a bit. I know he was paired against Lawrence in one of the games, but the differences were pretty apparent. I can't say I've seen many guys play live where I'm thinking "meh" that turned out to be fantastic.

His arm isn't lively at all, your observation is the same as mine, hence it's awesome.

In comment 14349300 bw in dc said:

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In comment 14349085 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 14349053 bw in dc said: Quote: I suggest you look at Jones’s stats against Miami this year. Notice the 17.6 number. Uh, the two bowl games were Temple and N. Illinois. Those are some “signature” wins... I suggest you actually look and see what happened in the miami because there was a literal monsoon + a flooded field. Miami's QB's only threw for 111 yards. Duke went ahead on the only td in the 2nd half on a drive led by Jones to the goal line, he just didn't score the TD. I get it. But you are the one who cited it as a signature win. And it's a game that doesn't help your case for Jones.

He won a game on the road against a quality opponent (preseason top 10) who was in a must win game with an excellent defense (top 5). How is that not a signature win? Winning more bowl games in 2 years than his entire program the past 50? How are those not signature wins?

Jones is a little ahead of the others in this class mentally by virtue of being a 3 year starter with a HC that knows how to develop a QB. I just don't see 1st Round 'talent'.

In comment 14349008 Eric on Li said:

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PFF says statistically Duke WR dropped more passes for him than any other team in the country and I believe it was somewhere around 5 per game - and that shows up in any game of his you watch. So even if you reduce that number by 1 or 2 drops per game it makes a big impact. 20 less drops (less than 2 per game) and he's a 65% passer. Also PFF had them drop more deep passes than any other WR group in the country. Part of the allure of Jones is how weak his supporting cast was and that had they been better he'd have been much better statistically.

This is my feeling too, Duke was outclassed, so I wouldn't put much stock in comp %. The arm strength question however needs to be dug into and addressed. Does he have an NFL arm or not? It doesn't need to be a rocket, but good enough to throw into tight spaces against top defenders.

In comment 14349309 Eric on Li said:

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He won a game on the road against a quality opponent (preseason top 10) who was in a must win game with an excellent defense (top 5). How is that not a signature win? Winning more bowl games in 2 years than his entire program the past 50? How are those not signature wins?

The game was Nov 3rd and Miami was 5-3 coming into the game, and unranked. Jones had no TD passes, threw for 130 yards, and had a 17.6 rating. Sorry, but that is not compelling as a player who contributed to the win.

Let me give you an example that is better. To open the season in 2017, UCLA goes to Texas A&M, who is a top 25 team. UCLA is not ranked. UCLA is down 27 points going into the 4th quarter. What happens? Rosen goes beserk and leads a 28 point rally to win the game. And finished with nearly 500 yards passing, 4 TDs and 0 INTs.

That is a signature win...

I think some people are taking the fumble and running the wrong way.

What you see on video does not line up with some of what's being said.