every year the media blows up the available QBs and they all move up the board.
Quarterbacks taken in the first round
2007
1: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
22: Brady Quinn, Browns
2008
3: Matt Ryan, Falcons
18: Joe Flacco, Ravens
2009
1: Matthew Stafford, Lions
5: Mark Sanchez, Jets
17: Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
2010
1: Sam Bradford, Rams
25: Tim Tebow, Broncos
2011
1: Cam Newton, Panthers
8: Jake Locker, Titans
10: Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
12: Christian Ponder, Vikings
2012
1: Andrew Luck, Colts
2: Robert Griffin III, Redskins
8: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
22: Brandon Weeden, Browns
2013
16: EJ Manuel, Bills
2014
3: Blake Bortles, Jaguars
22: Johnny Manziel, Browns
32: Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
2015
1: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
2: Marcus Mariota, Titans
2016
1: Jared Goff, Rams
2: Carson Wentz, Eagles
26: Paxton Lynch, Broncos
2017
2: Trubisky
10: Mahomes
12: Watson
there are some good picks in there obviously but a lot aren't the home runs people thought they would be. Notice how many times the Browns are up there...
way too many QBs don't translate well to the NFL and I see no point in taking one just to make the media and rabid fans happy.
If DG passes on the top rated guys this year whether they go before our pick or not it's going to be ugly in the media but looking back historically it really isn't warranted.
But I know many on this board will.
I agree with the OP..history shows us there is a greater chance a qb we take in round one will not be much to write home about than there is he will be an awesome force for at least the next 10 years.
So I propose we draft BPA according to our needs. So, if some EDGE guy is rated higher than let’s say Haskins.....take the EDGE guy. And if some WR rates higher than some available qb for the 17th pick, take the WR. Both players fit needs and are rated higher which means a better chance for success.
Don’t force the pick indeed!
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Me too
I hope not without a future franchise QB and least on the roster before then.
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
That’s just the thing, that QB class was loaded with question marks, probably more question marks surrounded that class than the top 3 QBs in this class, so hindsight will always be 20/20. For a long time Mahomes was looked at as a fringe first rounder, you heard his named mentioned in first round(late) as draft drew nearer(similar to Odell), but never really saw him hinted at as top 10.
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Unfortunately the way how Giants management doesn't want to see ELi go and/or for the philosophy of "take BPA" I fear we'll always get jumped unless it's for a mediocre or sub-par QB.
Willie that's a very significant point, and I was about to respond that the OP sets up a straw man data point as well by starting the data set with 2007 when jamarcus Russel was #1 overall.
To avoid a straw man data set, one should pick a "random" starting point - like going back 20 years (without looking at the 1999 draft) - and trying to address the point of "forced picks" one should look at, let's say, top 10 picks, because the Giants have the 6th pick overall/ In fact, you could look ONLY at top 6 picks, since later picks are presumably irrelevant to the data set the Giants will have available at pick 6....
Lets do that, for the 20 year period from 1999 to 2018, QBS taken with top 10 picks, and assess the bust rate.
1999 1 Tim Couch
2 Donovan McNabb
3 Akili Smith
2000 1 none
2001 1 Michael Vick
2002 1 David Carr
3 Joey Harrington
2003 1 Carson Palmer
7 Byron Leftwich
2004 1 Eli Manning
4 Phillip Rivers
2005 1 Alex Smith
2006 1 Vince Young
10 Matt Leinert
2007 1 Jamarcus Russell
2008 3 Matt Ryan
2009 1 Matt Stafford
5 Mark Sanchez
2010 1 Sam Bradford
2011 1 Cam Newton
8 Jake Locker
10 Blaine Gabbert
2012 1 Andrew Luck
2 RG III
8 Ryan Tannehill
2013 1 None
2014 3 Blake Bortles
2015 1 Jameis Winston
2 Marcus Mariotta
2016 1 Jared Goff
2 Carson Wentz
2017 2 Mitch Trubisky
10 Patrick Mahomes
2018 1 Baker Mayfield
3 Sam Darnold
7 Josh Allen
10 Josh Rosen
By my assessment (arguable) 16/32 QBs were successes. At least not busts... That's close to the overall success rate of 1st round picks, no?
If you deem your QB a likely potential success with a top 10 pick, take him. you are not so much more likely to do better with a non-QB.
By changing the data set we saw a 10/24 set become a 16/33. By stats, anyway.
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In comment 14353446 BillT said:
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Unfortunately the way how Giants management doesn't want to see ELi go and/or for the philosophy of "take BPA" I fear we'll always get jumped unless it's for a mediocre or sub-par QB.
Basing that strictly off not taking Darnold? What other evidence is there? They were prepared to take Mahomes, KC outbid them.
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In comment 14353692 Johnny5 said:
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In comment 14353446 BillT said:
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Unfortunately the way how Giants management doesn't want to see ELi go and/or for the philosophy of "take BPA" I fear we'll always get jumped unless it's for a mediocre or sub-par QB.
Basing that strictly off not taking Darnold? What other evidence is there? They were prepared to take Mahomes, KC outbid them.
That was when they actually believed in MacAdoo (who by the sounds of it trashing Eli non stop behind the scenes). MacAdoo was very adamant he needed a different type of QB to run his offense. That would have been quite a change of fortune if we ended up with Mahomes.
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In comment 14353741 giantstock said:
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In comment 14353692 Johnny5 said:
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In comment 14353446 BillT said:
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Unfortunately the way how Giants management doesn't want to see ELi go and/or for the philosophy of "take BPA" I fear we'll always get jumped unless it's for a mediocre or sub-par QB.
Basing that strictly off not taking Darnold? What other evidence is there? They were prepared to take Mahomes, KC outbid them.
That was when they actually believed in MacAdoo (who by the sounds of it trashing Eli non stop behind the scenes). MacAdoo was very adamant he needed a different type of QB to run his offense. That would have been quite a change of fortune if we ended up with Mahomes.
The OL was still a mess though.
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In comment 14353692 Johnny5 said:
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In comment 14353446 BillT said:
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Unfortunately the way how Giants management doesn't want to see ELi go and/or for the philosophy of "take BPA" I fear we'll always get jumped unless it's for a mediocre or sub-par QB.
Basing that strictly off not taking Darnold? What other evidence is there? They were prepared to take Mahomes, KC outbid them.
Are you replying to me? For me I think DG is an awful GM. I have little confidence in him. I've said here many times I graded him as an F Grade this past year. There's reasons why he deserved an F Grade which I could explain if you wish?
SO if you think he's pretty stupid or just incredibly thick-headed/ a blockhead (I don't think it unreasonable to think he might be)-- and you hear rumors that he might take jones with the 17thpick (or even Lock) and you tend to think it is real and could happen-- if you don't like these QBs then why wouldn't you think teams would either consistently jump him (outmanuever him) or he'd just be his usual blockhead-self and blunder by taking someone like Jones?
Hey I'm hopeful. One year being so wrong isn't the end of the world. We'll see. I'm excited to see what happens. Even if he tales the guys I most disagree with -- I'll wait with great anticipation and hope. But i fear he's a lousy GM.
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In comment 14353741 giantstock said:
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In comment 14353692 Johnny5 said:
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In comment 14353446 BillT said:
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So if we never take a QB because he might not work out, how will we ever get a QB.
I think the point is the 1st round is no guarantee. And ooph yeah when you look at that list... not compelling. Damn I wish KC didn't jump us for Mahomes.
Unfortunately the way how Giants management doesn't want to see ELi go and/or for the philosophy of "take BPA" I fear we'll always get jumped unless it's for a mediocre or sub-par QB.
Basing that strictly off not taking Darnold? What other evidence is there? They were prepared to take Mahomes, KC outbid them.
Are you replying to me? For me I think DG is an awful GM. I have little confidence in him. I've said here many times I graded him as an F Grade this past year. There's reasons why he deserved an F Grade which I could explain if you wish?
SO if you think he's pretty stupid or just incredibly thick-headed/ a blockhead (I don't think it unreasonable to think he might be)-- and you hear rumors that he might take jones with the 17thpick (or even Lock) and you tend to think it is real and could happen-- if you don't like these QBs then why wouldn't you think teams would either consistently jump him (outmanuever him) or he'd just be his usual blockhead-self and blunder by taking someone like Jones?
Hey I'm hopeful. One year being so wrong isn't the end of the world. We'll see. I'm excited to see what happens. Even if he tales the guys I most disagree with -- I'll wait with great anticipation and hope. But i fear he's a lousy GM.
How on earth can you give a GM a F when he had an extremely successful draft?
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How on earth can you give a GM a F when he had an extremely successful draft?
What does that mean he "he had a successful draft?" You're looking at it in a vacuum. You look at the totailty of FA and the draft. A successful draft and FA translates into a near vision of being a very good team. Our Qb is subpar. Our receiving core is subpar. Our OLINE has 40% subar,our tight end core is not good and our entire defense sucks.
Other than RB, what position is now clearly straightened out vs could he have straightened out positions with more competency?
given, last year even during the win streak i turned to my friends and said Eli is done.... hoping he proves us wrong next season.
let them move earth and sky to get a QB if they think he's worth it but i just don't think that guy is available this year.
How can you not agree.
100% sure? Wow! That explains a lot about the commentary on drafting a quarterback these last 2 seasons.
Bingo!
we wouldn't know a lot of these names if they didn't go high in the draft. Teams reach all the time. it has nothing to do whether i think he's an idiot or not. i think maybe you're trying to push that narrative.
I personally don't think DG will reach this year unless Haskins or somehow Murray are there at 6.
Or watch the other half melt down when they trade up for Haskins
will be fun to see half this board meltdown when its day 3 and we still didn't pick a QB.
When you need one, and when you are high enough to take one and when you are 100% sure he is the guy?
Is that the standard...
Sweat breakdown - ( New Window )
When you need one, and when you are high enough to take one and when you are 100% sure he is the guy?
Is that the standard...
i just don't think this group of qb's is the right group to pick high and i think we won't see many go early after murray/haskins/lock. and lock is only included in that because of how much smoke the broncos are putting out there over him.
i think if its possible DG trades some picks this year for picks next year(later round) to be able to move up and get someone next year if Eli is truly done even behind a better line.
we'll see.
I think he is the best of our available options this year and can likely have some success. But, his contract is done next season and I see no real reason to retain him. So, I'm on the Eli this year but not next year train.
I see the best team growth coming from quality picks at #6, 17, and second round for both the defense and OL improvement. That gives you better future potetnail than reaching for an overvalued QB. I see better QB's (multiple) next year which can be reasonably obtained. Even with trade-ups they seem to be better values. They'll have a better team foundation because of this draft (and the 50M FA class. I don't see the need for a mentorship or a "Mahomes model" for that class. Throw them in and let's go.