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Be careful of draft "group think"

Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/23/2019 11:14 am
One of the lessons I've learned from following the draft all of these years is that us fans often get caught up in draft group think over players.

There is often a "consensus" pecking order of players by position. Then the draft rolls around and the pecking order goes out the window as NFL execs have completely different views. The inevitable, "Wow, what are the (blank team) doing? That is crazy!"

This happens every year.

I only raise this as I've already seen the group think develop on BBI in terms of which players should go in which order. But as I receive different draft guides (which obviously are not infallible either), they often have completely different views.

What I like about Sy is not afraid to break from the ranks and voice his own opinion. I just got another guide (DTP) like that and my first reaction to looking at who is ranked where is, "Wow, that's different!" (i.e., this guy LOVES Clelin Ferrell, though he says he's a better fit for a 4-3; has Drew Lock as the clearcut #1 QB, etc.)

The various opinions are fascinating, but they leave your head spinning too. This is all subjective. But the one thing I know is the 2019 NFL Draft won't fall the way people think it should. And the Giants just may be one of those teams, sitting at #6, where the "experts" say, "What are they doing?"
Exactly.  
robbieballs2003 : 3/23/2019 11:17 am : link
This happened last year with the QBs and it is happening again with the 2020 QBs. You don't draft a group/position. You draft a player. I cringe when I constantly read that we will draft a QB next year. Or in 2018 when we constantly heard we will draft a QB at 2. No, you don't settle for what is left. This is a marriage and you have to live with this decision for at least the next 5 years.
don't pay a lot of attention to pre-draft  
Steve in ATL : 3/23/2019 11:19 am : link
I don't love players until the Giants draft them.
RE: Exactly.  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/23/2019 11:23 am : link
In comment 14354096 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
This happened last year with the QBs and it is happening again with the 2020 QBs. You don't draft a group/position. You draft a player. I cringe when I constantly read that we will draft a QB next year. Or in 2018 when we constantly heard we will draft a QB at 2. No, you don't settle for what is left. This is a marriage and you have to live with this decision for at least the next 5 years.


The QB position is one where my head is spinning. People are all over the place with these guys. Some may interpret that as meaning that none are good enough, but that's not necessarily true. We've all seen "sure thing" QB's be more disappointing than guys taken later who weren't supposed to be as good.
For example Sy gave Rosen  
Dave on the UWS : 3/23/2019 11:26 am : link
a grade of 89 if I remember correctly and the only reason he didn’t give him an elite grade of 90+ was because of durability questions. I’ve gotten “real fond” of Haskins but I can appreciate anyone who doesn’t like him ( well maybe not Terps or BW).
RE: Exactly.  
larryflower37 : 3/23/2019 11:27 am : link
In comment 14354096 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
This happened last year with the QBs and it is happening again with the 2020 QBs. You don't draft a group/position. You draft a player. I cringe when I constantly read that we will draft a QB next year. Or in 2018 when we constantly heard we will draft a QB at 2. No, you don't settle for what is left. This is a marriage and you have to live with this decision for at least the next 5 years.


Like a marriage, everyone has different expectations on what is the perfect spouse.
Bellichek has proven this year over year in drafting what fits for him over what people perceive as the better prospect.
We still are trying to figure out what is Gettleman's system and what he values most. I am assuming touched by the hand of God but they haven't started testing that at the combine.
Will be interesting top 6 because of all the turnover in those franchises and not knowing what to expect.
good post  
markky : 3/23/2019 11:29 am : link
conversely it's possible someone BBI thinks is a top 4 pick falls to #6.
Eric, group think happens with the experts, too.  
George from PA : 3/23/2019 11:29 am : link
No one wants to look stupid....so they all start building a consensus.....and when they start reading the tea leaves from the teams....they make adjustments.

Murray is a perfect example....between Arizona and Murray's camp behavior....lead everyone to conclude he is going 1st.

We are lucky to have guys like Sy and Dave Te.....with their own beliefs.
RE: Eric, group think happens with the experts, too.  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/23/2019 11:31 am : link
In comment 14354106 George from PA said:
Quote:
No one wants to look stupid....so they all start building a consensus.....and when they start reading the tea leaves from the teams....they make adjustments.

Murray is a perfect example....between Arizona and Murray's camp behavior....lead everyone to conclude he is going 1st.

We are lucky to have guys like Sy and Dave Te.....with their own beliefs.


Bingo. I think it happens all of the time with experts. They don't want to lose their credibility and play it safe.
San Darnold was the clear #1 pick for the Browns  
ZogZerg : 3/23/2019 11:31 am : link
Then late in process folks move Josh Allen to #1 overall.
NO ONE had Baker Mayfield #1 overall until the day before.

The "Experts" really don't know what teams think about players.
Good point Eric  
ryanmkeane : 3/23/2019 11:38 am : link
Like clockwork every single year, there are guys that go in the top 10 or even top 5 and the fans go WHOA, didn’t expect that! But only because we grow accustom to the group think or “order” that which we think guys will go. Just looking back the past few years draft, Denzel Ward going #4 overall, Corey davis going #5 to titans two years back...there are always “surprises.” This year will be no different
And can we look at the RBs last year?  
robbieballs2003 : 3/23/2019 11:40 am : link
How many times did we hear that the RB group was extremely deep so we should pass on Barkley and take a RB later? If we waited then we would have been choosing between guys like Guice and Ronald Jones and Freeman. There were a ton of disappointments last year of highly touted RBs. Michel dealt with injuries but played very well down the stretch. Chubb was great but isn't the receiver Barkley is. The group was hyped up but didn't live up to their hype. Phillip Lindsay had a phenomenal year but nobody was even talking about him until he won the job.
If you don't  
pjcas18 : 3/23/2019 11:43 am : link
succumb to group think you will never get a good draft grade from anyone.

isn't that the whole point of the NFL draft?
It's nice to read the 5000 theories  
O Butter Giants 2019 : 3/23/2019 12:09 pm : link
but at the end of the night, I do not care who the fans think the Giants will take
Part of the issues is draft "experts" are not judged  
Hades07 : 3/23/2019 12:17 pm : link
by how good they are at evaluating who the best players are. They are judged by how well they predict how high a player will be drafted. So a person who graded Ryan Leaf for example as a 4th round prospect will be lambasted for being so wrong, but no one will care 5 years later that he was actually the right one.
To me  
Fast Eddie : 3/23/2019 12:28 pm : link
The worst thing we can do is trade up. The depth of great defensive players and a couple blue chip offensive tackles will surely be available at six if the qb of our dreams gets taken ahead of us. Sit tight and enjoy what should be a fun draft.
Amen.  
mittenedman : 3/23/2019 12:34 pm : link
Daniel Jones is the latest victim. Everyone here thinks he sucks despite having a very interesting toolset for the NFL. Theres a reason he received a 1st round projection from the Advisory.
RE: RE: Exactly.  
UberAlias : 3/23/2019 12:40 pm : link
In comment 14354101 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
In comment 14354096 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


This happened last year with the QBs and it is happening again with the 2020 QBs. You don't draft a group/position. You draft a player. I cringe when I constantly read that we will draft a QB next year. Or in 2018 when we constantly heard we will draft a QB at 2. No, you don't settle for what is left. This is a marriage and you have to live with this decision for at least the next 5 years.



The QB position is one where my head is spinning. People are all over the place with these guys. Some may interpret that as meaning that none are good enough, but that's not necessarily true. We've all seen "sure thing" QB's be more disappointing than guys taken later who weren't supposed to be as good.
That’s because different people put emphasis on different things. Like how much weight do you put to Murray’s height? How much do you value his elite skills as a runner? How concerned are you about Rosen personality? Does it bother you about Haskins only one year? It wasn’t that NYG didn’t like QBs last year, its that different people in the org liked different guys. And that makes sense because they were very different QBs with different risks.
RE: Amen.  
BlueLou'sBack : 3/23/2019 12:48 pm : link
In comment 14354216 mittenedman said:
Quote:
Daniel Jones is the latest victim. Everyone here thinks he sucks despite having a very interesting toolset for the NFL. Theres a reason he received a 1st round projection from the Advisory.


IMO a lot of people here think he sucks because they have watched tape of him throwing, or in some cases actually went to see him live, like FMiC said twice. And were not impressed. I like Like could a lot more than some people and pretty much all the pundits who seem to be begging him for the back half of the first round.

Anyway I think he's got the two most important traits you can't teach, a great arm and a quick release.
Lock  
BlueLou'sBack : 3/23/2019 12:48 pm : link
Lock!
I'm definitely no expert, far from it  
montanagiant : 3/23/2019 1:03 pm : link
But out of all the QBs this year I like Lock the best.
Just last year  
WillVAB : 3/23/2019 1:39 pm : link
No one had Denzel Ward going 4 to CLE. No one.

So don’t automatically assume the Giants will get locked out of Boss, Allen, or Williams.

A team in front of the Giants may want a CB and take Greedy. SF seems to be dusting for a WR — maybe they reach for Metcalf.

These mocks and projections aren’t set in stone.
The worst is  
djm : 3/23/2019 1:44 pm : link
How so many knowledgeable fans right here put so much stock in these mock drafts or player rankings. I know this hard for some to accept but the guys being paid to scout know more than we do. They know more than the NY Post or ESPN or any other outlet. Every single year we see players picked much lower or higher than the group thinking. Most of the time the scouts and teams are more on point than we are.

When some player you hate gets picked top ten just remember that you’re not a scout. You don’t have all the info.
And you will never convince me  
djm : 3/23/2019 1:50 pm : link
That some of the most respected, articulate and well thought posters aren’t following the herd mentality of buying up what the masses are selling. Most here would like or love these QBs if they weren’t inundated with this qb narrative centered on 2017 and 2019 being light years better. I don’t know how anyone can love a guy like darnold and Rosen and in the same sentence kill Haskins and Murray. Most of these posters didn’t even like or tout baker mayfield and he was and is the best qb of last year’s class.

PS— don’t remember where I heard it but an nfl icon exec recently said that some of the best scouts and GMs in nfl history were and are terrible at scouting qbs. They over think it. I do agree there.
Great  
AcidTest : 3/23/2019 2:01 pm : link
post. The draft is full of surprises. Teams invariably have the players ranked differently than analysts.
Really good post Eric.  
mattyblue : 3/23/2019 3:18 pm : link
This year more than any other I have been here for features a lot more people with opinions like “X player sucks.” I understand people have players they prefer and players they don’t, but to just say a guy sucks is a pointless argument. They are going in the first round of the NFL draft, they really don’t suck. Last year was unlike most years because for the most part everyone knew the players that were going quick and outside of Denzel Ward there weren’t many early surprises. This year seems similar with the draft writers, the problem being emotions are running even higher on the QB or not QB argument. Half the arguments have become nonsensical on both sides of the great Eli debate. People posting videos and statistics that are meaningless to either prove or disprove whether Eli has declined or not has gotten so tiresome.

One thing that I do personally feel is that QBs are different than any other position as it is extremely rare some guy comes along that doesn’t have any questions. A RB like Barkley who was an incredible prospect mostly has a few things to do and it’s easy to judge. Can he run, can he catch, can he block etc... QBs are so different in that they have a million things to look at and are very very dependent on the system they play in, and the players they have to work with. It’s a much harder position to fill and it leads people to often look at and dwell on things that probably aren’t really important.
I'm always more interested in the opinions and conversation ...  
Torrag : 3/23/2019 3:23 pm : link
...here on BBI about prospects than the 'consensus'. Especially if someone has seen a player I haven't or brings new information to the table.
Hate Gettelman  
Glover : 3/23/2019 3:30 pm : link
Should not have traded OBJ, unless you get a King's Ransom, which they did not. Barkley WAS the right pick, and we should be getting ready for Beckham, Barkley, and Haskins this year. Not a bad trio to build with. Agree about Tate. He is a fine player, but you're not replacing talent there, might as well get a cheaper veteran or roll with a Rookie second or 3rd rounder. Stuck a fork in Eli last season. Dont care if it's his fault or lack if protection, but he is on the team he is on and he can't rise above the hand he (we) have been dealt.
5 wins sounds about right for this team.
Sorry  
Glover : 3/23/2019 3:30 pm : link
Meant to post this on Gettelman thread.
Erics OP, so true!  
idiotsavant : 3/23/2019 5:02 pm : link
Especially this year where I am not looking at prospects for myself.
RE: Amen.  
bw in dc : 3/23/2019 5:25 pm : link
In comment 14354216 mittenedman said:
Quote:
Daniel Jones is the latest victim. Everyone here thinks he sucks despite having a very interesting toolset for the NFL. Theres a reason he received a 1st round projection from the Advisory.


Jones is one of the most polarizing prospects because for every legitimate positive there is a legitimate negative.

Furthermore, at least for me, the argument isn't about a prospect sucking. It's about debating where the prospect should properly be drafted.

For Jones, I see him as solid third round prospect. The third round is good and complimentary. There are a lot of quality players who emerge from the third round.
We have been spoiled having Easy E  
Bluesbreaker : 3/23/2019 6:55 pm : link
We knew this day was coming and all the bashing that
he has taken here was sickening well this is probably
it for Eli not easy to replace an Iron man type player
we couldn't have wished for more two Lombardi's should
have been three if Plax doesn't glock himself ..
We will get his replacement this year or next and hope
he can live up to expectations .
RE: Amen.  
giantstock : 3/23/2019 11:20 pm : link
In comment 14354216 mittenedman said:
Quote:
Daniel Jones is the latest victim. Everyone here thinks he sucks despite having a very interesting toolset for the NFL. Theres a reason he received a 1st round projection from the Advisory.


For me Jones is an awful pick. He looks so plodding. He has disaster pick written all over him for rd 1 or early rd 2.
IMO the most pernicious aspect of the group think  
BlueLou'sBack : 3/24/2019 2:16 am : link
syndrome this year is the "consensus" that tis year is a bad year for QBs. To my eyes both Haskins and Lock are top tier prospects, and Murray would be too if he was at least 6' and 215#... Grier and Jones are decent mid round picks, too.

But labeling Haskins and Lock as if they are significantly below Darnold and Rosen is flawed analysis, IMO.

Do you think Phillip Rivers has had a nice career as an NFL QB? He'd give his left nut to have the arm strength and accuracy of either of those guys, and he was drafted #4 overall and put out a heck of a career.

My absolute favorite  
LakeGeorgeGiant : 3/24/2019 6:59 am : link
is when a poster does a mock and gets inundated with responses like "omg there is NO WAY that player lasts to #17", as if it were some irrefutable fact.

Eric's post is very correct, and the most surprising part is how this pattern repeats itself every year, and following year we all still think we have it figured out.
Really looking forward to Sy’s input this year  
exiled : 3/24/2019 7:00 am : link
Like every year, I guess. Between his draft analysis and his post-game writeups—especially the games that aren’t televised in Boston—he’s really valuable on this site.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/24/2019 10:50 am : link
Yup. I think throughout the process, we all inevitably start to mentally place these players in specific parts of the draft - and so, when they start to be taken way ahead or below where we had them pegged, we default to thinking the team making the pick is way off somehow or must have their board backwards, etc.

Reality is that teams and analysts are not always in lockstep on these players, and they're actually pretty often far apart or have very different evaluations.

Scouting and drafting will always be an inexact science.

When the Giants drafted JPP, so many people were up in arms over it. Who the hell is this guy!??! Etc.

Well, I think all in all, JPP turned out to be a pretty damn good draft pick. Even if for 2011 alone. He was worth it.

The biggest problem with the draft really, is that we live in a world where everyone needs to opine immediately - but draft prospects can' t be judged until the've neared the end of their rookie deal.

So, we can say we like or don't like certain picks... but there's no way to prove they're bad picks (or great picks) when they're made no matter how hard people make insistences in either direction.
Great post  
Matt G : 3/24/2019 12:47 pm : link
My personal favorite is, “we could have traded down ten spots and drafted the same player.” Says who?
Don't believe "group think"?  
Anakim : 3/24/2019 12:49 pm : link
But then Jeff57 will actually have to come up with opinions of his own!
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