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NFT: Mets ST Home Finale today

CMicks3110 : 3/24/2019 10:32 am
and 18 year old Simeon Woods-Richardson is expected to pitch.

Nimmo LF
McNeil 3B
Cano 2B
Alonso 1B
Conforto RF
Ramos C
Rosario SS
Smith 1B
Lagares CF
Peterson SP

Looks like Alonso will be on team. I hope they keep Dowdy as well, guy has really good stuff. Would love to see them play Smith some in LF, especially for opening day against a pitcher like scherzer.
Two first basemen?  
allstarjim : 3/24/2019 10:54 am : link
I know, one of Alonso or Dom is DH'ing, right?
good roster overview from Britton ($)  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 11:13 am : link
still think it's ridiculous to break up the good spring mojo for either (both) young 1B and not play them both every day somewhere - but excited to see whichever 1 of them gets first crack at the job.

Really excited by the core of this lineup though. Cano seems poised to have his usual year, and around him Conforto, McNeil, Rosario, and Nimmo all seem ready to continue their development. The new team hitting philosophy should be a positive for all of those guys and 1 or 2 could easily end up in the ASG. More of an unknown what Alonso will be in year 1, but it seems certain he'll provide some thump.

For once the pitching staff hasn't seem to have any injuries in ST. Still think they'd have been better served bringing in 1 of those veterans in the ~3m range for depth whether it was another SP or RP.

Last year there was a similar understated confidence heading into the season but injuries (Cespedes), underperformance (Harvey), lack of depth (BP, C), and inexperience (Callaway) derailed things. Hopefully this year the fresh organizational approach and improved depth will help them better weather adversity.
Projecting the outlook for each player expected to make Mets 2019 Opening Day roster - ( New Window )
Hope  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2019 11:19 am : link
springs eternal.

Last year the Mets started out crazy fast, and led to the increased hopes and increased disappointment, hopefully this year they also start out fast, but keep up the momentum.

For those who have blocked out 2018, the Mets started out 11 - 1 and went 17 - 9 in April.

then they won 10 games the month of May, 5 the month of June, 12 in July and the season is over (it was really over in June when they fell to 14.5 games back).

they did have a good September, so my hope is a whole season like April and September 2018 and we never see another month like June 2018 (two separate 7 game losing streaks has to be a record).
The 2 single biggest differences Apri 18 vs ROS were BP & Ces  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 11:29 am : link
I think the BP was almost perfect during the 11 game win streak. Cano should provide a more consistent middle of the order presence and the rest do the lineup around him is stronger.

On paper the BP is a lot better. Do still wish it were deeper though. From OD last year Swarzak/Blevins/Ramos > Wilson/Diaz/Avilan should be a big upgrade as long as Diaz performs, but depth is largely similar.
RE: The 2 single biggest differences Apri 18 vs ROS were BP & Ces  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2019 11:35 am : link
In comment 14355002 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
I think the BP was almost perfect during the 11 game win streak. Cano should provide a more consistent middle of the order presence and the rest do the lineup around him is stronger.

On paper the BP is a lot better. Do still wish it were deeper though. From OD last year Swarzak/Blevins/Ramos > Wilson/Diaz/Avilan should be a big upgrade as long as Diaz performs, but depth is largely similar.


rest of season though after/during the shitty June Wheeler emerged as a legit ace and Harvey was on his way out.

Not to equate the Giants and Mets, but Harvey appeared to be some of the "rot" the Giants removed.

If JDG, Wheeler, and Thor pitch like they can, and the BP pitches to their potential the Mets don't even need to be league average at the plate to compete.

A lot of if's though.

Still wish there was some rotation protection for Matz/Vargas and injury, Gio would have made sense. Buchholz would have made sense, etc, would have made sense - but no sense rehashing any of that.
There were definitely positive developments post-April  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 11:51 am : link
and I personally buy Wheeler's emergence to a degree. It took a while but he found his way back to his career trajectory pre-TJS.

But the 2 key things that happened in April were timely hits (Cespedes had like 25 rbis in those first 25 games) and lights out BP. If you're a team built for close games, the quality of your BP is just as important as your starters. Last year they didn't have the ability to sustain their timely hitting/bp performances for the long haul. Hopefully this year is different.

The upside of the starting rotation is unmistakeable - they could be the best in baseball. But that hasn't been enough for them to be a winning team when the other 2 areas struggle. Last year they had the most productive SP unit in the NL and were under .500. In 2015 they similarly had great pitching, but weren't a good team until they fortified the BP + got timely hitting from Uribe / Conforto / KJ / Cespedes. I'm hopeful the new hitting approach will go a long way to helping them be better at hitting with RISP - which has seemingly plagued this org for decades.
Last year's SP was great  
ZGiants98 : 3/24/2019 12:19 pm : link
But the offense was so historically bad in May and June there was no coming back from that. The bullpen was also horrid when Lugo had to be borrowed from the pen, Swarzak and Ramos were ultimately lost for the year, and Familia was traded.

This team looks ions stronger. I liked last years team but did think it was a transition year breaking in Rosario, Nimmo, Smith (we thought) so there was always going to be a high variance of what could have happened. Coupled with another injury plagued season including losing our best and most expensive player, its not hard to see why we tanked. We did pick it back up in the second half though once McNeil was brought up.

Ill be in Sarasota tomorrow at the last ST game. Hoping to see a final tuneup from Thor or Wheeler.
Offense is leaving Spring training  
ZGiants98 : 3/24/2019 12:27 pm : link
on absolute fire. Cant wait for Sherzer, Stras, and Corbin to throw ice cold water on everyone. lol
Alonso with a triple and its 2-0 early  
ZGiants98 : 3/24/2019 12:30 pm : link
I seriously think Alonso is the going to be incredible. Of the likes that the Mets haven't seen in some time.... And that's saying something with Conforto, Nimmo, etc already playing at an all-star level.
RE: Last year's SP was great  
allstarjim : 3/24/2019 12:39 pm : link
In comment 14355038 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
But the offense was so historically bad in May and June there was no coming back from that. The bullpen was also horrid when Lugo had to be borrowed from the pen, Swarzak and Ramos were ultimately lost for the year, and Familia was traded.

This team looks ions stronger. I liked last years team but did think it was a transition year breaking in Rosario, Nimmo, Smith (we thought) so there was always going to be a high variance of what could have happened. Coupled with another injury plagued season including losing our best and most expensive player, its not hard to see why we tanked. We did pick it back up in the second half though once McNeil was brought up.

Ill be in Sarasota tomorrow at the last ST game. Hoping to see a final tuneup from Thor or Wheeler.


I will also be at that game, Z! Sitting on the Orioles side, back in section 203. I will be very noticeable with Mets' colors lights strung around my neck! I'll also be with my wife...she'll be the cute blonde also wearing the Mets lights. #LGM
Nice! Ill look for you allstar!  
ZGiants98 : 3/24/2019 12:42 pm : link
:) I dont have my seats yet. I noticed a bunch were available so Ill probably just pick them up in the morning. My date just had ACL surgery so Ill probably be fairly noticeable too. lol
Cool, definitely say hello  
allstarjim : 3/24/2019 1:28 pm : link
Pretty confident we'll be the only ones with the lighty up beads, lol
Ramos  
GF1080 : 3/24/2019 1:31 pm : link
No mention of Ramos injury? SWR had an awful pitch which bounced and hit Ramos hand. Came out immediately.
Love McNeil so much  
jpkmets : 3/24/2019 2:09 pm : link
.
Noah  
GF1080 : 3/24/2019 2:11 pm : link
He just ripped the FO for the trip to Syracuse and not paying deGrom. As always we cant get out of our own way.
What really killed the season in 2018  
Vanzetti : 3/24/2019 2:12 pm : link
1. Getting swept six straight games at home by Rockies and Braves in May

2. Going 5-22 between May 31 and June 30

Mickey's inexperience was a big contributory factor and the front office just sat on its hands.

Mets actually played well the last two months but dug too big a hole in May and june.





RE: Ramos  
Shecky : 3/24/2019 2:16 pm : link
In comment 14355094 GF1080 said:
Quote:
No mention of Ramos injury? SWR had an awful pitch which bounced and hit Ramos hand. Came out immediately.


Crossing fingers...
RE: Hope  
Section331 : 3/24/2019 2:45 pm : link
In comment 14354998 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
springs eternal.

Last year the Mets started out crazy fast, and led to the increased hopes and increased disappointment, hopefully this year they also start out fast, but keep up the momentum.

For those who have blocked out 2018, the Mets started out 11 - 1 and went 17 - 9 in April.
.


I was at game 13 v the Nats. Had a 5-1 lead going into the 8th with deGrom on the hill and proceeded to blow the lead. That, Tom me, was the beginning of the end.
RE: Noah  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 3:34 pm : link
In comment 14355132 GF1080 said:
Quote:
He just ripped the FO for the trip to Syracuse and not paying deGrom. As always we cant get out of our own way.


He's right on both subjects too. It'd be better to not have to go to the press with this, but it sounds like BVW had a little work to do creating the winning culture and it's better this stuff gets out there and fixed vs. festering.
Its always good to piss off your two star pitchers before Game 1  
PhiPsi125 : 3/24/2019 4:31 pm : link
of the season. LOLMets.

Now, Ill take this with the smallest grain of salt because who knows what money DeGrom is asking for but if I had to bet on the side that is screwing this up...it would be the Mets all day long.
Noah may be right  
allstarjim : 3/24/2019 5:44 pm : link
But it's really not his place to be discussing contract negotiations with his employer and another employee to the press. He's a great player, I'm a fan, and I hope he stays a career Met, but that is completely unprofessional, regardless of whether or not what he says has any validity.

Plus, though it shouldn't, talking like that could interfere with the negotiations. It shouldn't, but if the org felt that coming to an agreement now would make them appear weaker and encourage other players to talk to the press, it could hurt deGrom. I wouldn't be happy about it if I'm deGrom or the Mets. Your place is to play baseball, not act like you are Jake's agent.

He needs to grow up a little bit.
RE: Noah may be right  
Rory : 3/24/2019 6:02 pm : link
In comment 14355311 allstarjim said:
Quote:
But it's really not his place to be discussing contract negotiations with his employer and another employee to the press. He's a great player, I'm a fan, and I hope he stays a career Met, but that is completely unprofessional, regardless of whether or not what he says has any validity.

Plus, though it shouldn't, talking like that could interfere with the negotiations. It shouldn't, but if the org felt that coming to an agreement now would make them appear weaker and encourage other players to talk to the press, it could hurt deGrom. I wouldn't be happy about it if I'm deGrom or the Mets. Your place is to play baseball, not act like you are Jake's agent.

He needs to grow up a little bit.


Na, fuck it let him talk. Wilpons need to be put on the spot and we need to know if they are serious about contending. So far this offseason has shown some serious improvement and shockingly the attempt to build a culture in the clubhouse but is it legit or is it all smoke and mirrors.

They need to fucking extend Degrom now.
RE: Noah may be right  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 6:04 pm : link
In comment 14355311 allstarjim said:
Quote:
But it's really not his place to be discussing contract negotiations with his employer and another employee to the press. He's a great player, I'm a fan, and I hope he stays a career Met, but that is completely unprofessional, regardless of whether or not what he says has any validity.

Plus, though it shouldn't, talking like that could interfere with the negotiations. It shouldn't, but if the org felt that coming to an agreement now would make them appear weaker and encourage other players to talk to the press, it could hurt deGrom. I wouldn't be happy about it if I'm deGrom or the Mets. Your place is to play baseball, not act like you are Jake's agent.

He needs to grow up a little bit.


I'd be in complete agreement if the Mets actually submitted him an offer when they said they would prior to ST and there weren't several other top players who have extended over the past few months without needing to do nearly as much public lobbying as Degrom has.

Sale just resigned and he's only 1 year from FA.
Carrasco resigned a few years from FA.
Nola signed.
Severino signed.
He's obviously a hitter, but Trout signed.

9 months ago his agent said he wants to be here for life but "sign him or trade". His agent became GM and said they want to resign him at his opening PC. This winter they told JDG's new agent they would submit an offer, and then delayed. Over a month ago JDG expressed frustration at the extension talks, and then again this week as the start of the season approaches.

It is painfully clear he wants to be a Met and the organization has dragged their feet and sent a negative message through the clubhouse.
RE: RE: Noah may be right  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 6:06 pm : link
In comment 14355331 Rory said:
Quote:
In comment 14355311 allstarjim said:


Quote:


But it's really not his place to be discussing contract negotiations with his employer and another employee to the press. He's a great player, I'm a fan, and I hope he stays a career Met, but that is completely unprofessional, regardless of whether or not what he says has any validity.

Plus, though it shouldn't, talking like that could interfere with the negotiations. It shouldn't, but if the org felt that coming to an agreement now would make them appear weaker and encourage other players to talk to the press, it could hurt deGrom. I wouldn't be happy about it if I'm deGrom or the Mets. Your place is to play baseball, not act like you are Jake's agent.

He needs to grow up a little bit.



Na, fuck it let him talk. Wilpons need to be put on the spot and we need to know if they are serious about contending. So far this offseason has shown some serious improvement and shockingly the attempt to build a culture in the clubhouse but is it legit or is it all smoke and mirrors.

They need to fucking extend Degrom now.


Agreed. They can talk about being a "players first" org and keeping Alonso up despite the extra year of control, but that's small potatoes to actually getting their self described "Face of the franchise" signed.
All of what you guys said is true  
allstarjim : 3/24/2019 6:26 pm : link
And I hate the Wilpons as much or more than anyone here.

And if it's deGrom talking, no problem with it, because it's his deal he's trying to get.

But it has nothing to do with Noah, and there is no way to justify making public comments about the negotiations of someone else on his team.

I'd be fine with it if he was talking about anyone else who is not a teammate or who is not negotiating with the Mets.

And the truth is, none of us know if numbers haven't already been exchanged. While I have no insight as to negotiations, it's within the realm of possibility that deGrom's side is too high.

When you have a player saying, "just pay him what he's worth," then that helps nobody. What if deGrom thinks he's worth 7 years and $250 million? And I'm using an extreme example to make a point. You're not involved in negotiations, you are not Jake's agent, you are criticizing your employer and damaging your standing with the team by making these comments, and it's completely inappropriate and unprofessional.

Is frustration understandable? Yes. Do we all want deGrom to remain a Met? Yes. Did he help anyone by running his mouth to the media? No. It made HIM feel better. But it sure as hell didn't help deGrom and it didn't help his team. Again, it's a childish act and not befitting of a professional.
In general  
allstarjim : 3/24/2019 6:32 pm : link
It's a good rule of thumb in life to never talk about other people's money. Keep your thoughts to yourself.
RE: All of what you guys said is true  
Rory : 3/24/2019 6:34 pm : link
In comment 14355365 allstarjim said:
Quote:
And I hate the Wilpons as much or more than anyone here.

And if it's deGrom talking, no problem with it, because it's his deal he's trying to get.

But it has nothing to do with Noah, and there is no way to justify making public comments about the negotiations of someone else on his team.

I'd be fine with it if he was talking about anyone else who is not a teammate or who is not negotiating with the Mets.

And the truth is, none of us know if numbers haven't already been exchanged. While I have no insight as to negotiations, it's within the realm of possibility that deGrom's side is too high.

When you have a player saying, "just pay him what he's worth," then that helps nobody. What if deGrom thinks he's worth 7 years and $250 million? And I'm using an extreme example to make a point. You're not involved in negotiations, you are not Jake's agent, you are criticizing your employer and damaging your standing with the team by making these comments, and it's completely inappropriate and unprofessional.

Is frustration understandable? Yes. Do we all want deGrom to remain a Met? Yes. Did he help anyone by running his mouth to the media? No. It made HIM feel better. But it sure as hell didn't help deGrom and it didn't help his team. Again, it's a childish act and not befitting of a professional.


I doesn't right now, but it will. Thor and his agent has to see this as a preview of whats to come next year.

These guys want to know where they stand, Conforto will be next.
Ramos is fine.  
ZGiants98 : 3/24/2019 7:08 pm : link
x-rays negative. He's heading north with the team.
People can shit on the Mets  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2019 8:18 pm : link
and I think they should reward deGrom with an extension, but given the history of pitchers and lasting into their 30's it's easy to understand the hesitance.

deGrom is under control the next two seasons without an extension. He's not a free agent until 2021 and Thor not until 2022 (so another 3 seasons of control).

What does goodwill do for you if deGrom is extended and then is severely injured before he even needed to be extended.

For these extensions to make any sense now for the Mets, the players need to trade something for the financial security of a fully guaranteed MLB contract. and that trade the players make has to be lower $$$ (than market value) for some years of free agency.

We don't know if this is players/agents realizing the public pressure the Mets are under and seizing on it or if they are truly negotiating in good faith and trading theoretical less money than market value for early security.

RE: People can shit on the Mets  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 9:20 pm : link
In comment 14355509 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
and I think they should reward deGrom with an extension, but given the history of pitchers and lasting into their 30's it's easy to understand the hesitance.

deGrom is under control the next two seasons without an extension. He's not a free agent until 2021 and Thor not until 2022 (so another 3 seasons of control).

What does goodwill do for you if deGrom is extended and then is severely injured before he even needed to be extended.

For these extensions to make any sense now for the Mets, the players need to trade something for the financial security of a fully guaranteed MLB contract. and that trade the players make has to be lower $$$ (than market value) for some years of free agency.

We don't know if this is players/agents realizing the public pressure the Mets are under and seizing on it or if they are truly negotiating in good faith and trading theoretical less money than market value for early security.


2 things:

1- Every early extension signed recently has been generally below FA market value. Chris Sale just took close to the same contract Patrick Corbin got despite being only 1 year from FA - and the contract Sale took isn't even that much higher than most of what's been projected for JDG (who has less leverage). So JDG having wanted an extension for as long as he has, presumably understands that's not happening if he wants UFA money.

2- BVW obviously knows what JDG wants being his former agent, and he said he wanted to sign him. So if it doesn't get done before the season it would seem he either misevaluated his own client (or new agent?) or his owner.
.  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2019 9:37 pm : link
1- Sale would have been a FA after this year, Corbin was a FA. deGrom is under contract 2 more seasons before he hits FA.

2- how do you know deGrom's new agent is not asking for something different now that he won a CY Young/had the season he did?

None of us does. My point was to extend players this far before FA is not a "player x deserves it" transaction. Not in baseball with fully guaranteed contracts IMO. You do it when it makes sense and when you get a quid pro quo from the player.

I see no plausible way BVW isn't acutely aware of what JDG wants  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 10:08 pm : link
he was officially his agent until the end of October. As his agent he tried to engage the mets multiple times in extension talks the past few years. There is just no way he went into his opening press conference saying "we want to sign JDG long term" without knowing it was going to take close to $100m (or whatever his # is). So not getting a player extended whom he was publicly lobbying to extend from both sides in the past 9 months (player's agent and team's GM) would appear to be a typical mets misfire.

Re: Sale that is my point. He was just 1 year from FA, closer than JDG and younger too, and he still took a team friendly extension - just as Carrasco did and Severino/Nola did. If any pitcher or player wants to sign early, they are not going to get full FA market value. That's just reality and we've seen/heard nothing that would suggest JDG is making an unrealistic ask or negotiating in bad faith.

Remember, his problem at the beginning of spring wasn't that the Mets had low balled him - it was that they never even gave him an offer after saying they would. On the flip side "bad faith" would be the perfect name for a wilpon family band.
So we're in agreement  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2019 10:20 pm : link
the only way an extension makes sense is if it's team friendly. Sale got 5 years 145M. Not sure how team friendly that is exactly and Sale is almost two years younger than deGrom and hasn't had TJS.

And Sale is/was closer to FA so you'd expect that to be less of a discount than deGrom would get.

Last I read the Mets said they expect an extension to get done this week.

But it's hard to pin this on BVW. Even if he did know the parameters of what a deGrom extension would look like (from deGrom's standpoint) he's in the pretty rare situation now of instead of trying to maximize what a player gets he's trying to minimize it.

I don't know that knowing what deGrom is looking for is an advantage or not.

And yes, if it doesn't happen I blame the Wilpons

btw I would still predict it gets done in the next few days  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 10:24 pm : link
Sale clearly sets the ceiling for any pie in the sky ask from JDG's camp. If they want to extend now it is going to be less than that, it's just a question of what they are willing to compromise on. Do they want less years and less total money or a lower AAV (Sale got $26m) but more total dollars. The same AAV on a contract 1 year shorter would be a total deal around 5 years ~130m. That would seemingly be a perfectly fair contract though I'd still bet the under.

Whether or not extending him is a smart business move is up for debate but it's what both sides said they wanted to do.
RE: So we're in agreement  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 10:31 pm : link
In comment 14355615 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the only way an extension makes sense is if it's team friendly. Sale got 5 years 145M. Not sure how team friendly that is exactly and Sale is almost two years younger than deGrom and hasn't had TJS.

And Sale is/was closer to FA so you'd expect that to be less of a discount than deGrom would get.

Last I read the Mets said they expect an extension to get done this week.

But it's hard to pin this on BVW. Even if he did know the parameters of what a deGrom extension would look like (from deGrom's standpoint) he's in the pretty rare situation now of instead of trying to maximize what a player gets he's trying to minimize it.

I don't know that knowing what deGrom is looking for is an advantage or not.

And yes, if it doesn't happen I blame the Wilpons

Scherzer as a FA at age 30 got 7 years $210m.
Price got 7 years $217m and Greinke ($206m) got huge deals the following offseason (2016).
Corbin got $140m and he has nowhere near the track record Sale or any of those other guys have. All of them were multiple time Cy Young candidates.

If Sale was a FA he'd easily clear $200m. JDG too.
RE: RE: So we're in agreement  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2019 11:04 pm : link
In comment 14355628 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14355615 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


the only way an extension makes sense is if it's team friendly. Sale got 5 years 145M. Not sure how team friendly that is exactly and Sale is almost two years younger than deGrom and hasn't had TJS.

And Sale is/was closer to FA so you'd expect that to be less of a discount than deGrom would get.

Last I read the Mets said they expect an extension to get done this week.

But it's hard to pin this on BVW. Even if he did know the parameters of what a deGrom extension would look like (from deGrom's standpoint) he's in the pretty rare situation now of instead of trying to maximize what a player gets he's trying to minimize it.

I don't know that knowing what deGrom is looking for is an advantage or not.

And yes, if it doesn't happen I blame the Wilpons



Scherzer as a FA at age 30 got 7 years $210m.
Price got 7 years $217m and Greinke ($206m) got huge deals the following offseason (2016).
Corbin got $140m and he has nowhere near the track record Sale or any of those other guys have. All of them were multiple time Cy Young candidates.

If Sale was a FA he'd easily clear $200m. JDG too.


Sure as FA's not 2 seasons before they become FA's.
obviously - that's why the Red Sox signed him now  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 11:41 pm : link
they know first hand what cy young candidates cost on the open market. 1 year early extension got them at least a 25% discount.

BVW knows better than anyone whether or not JDG is serious about wanting to extend now and the market is pretty clearly dictating team friendly extensions for pitchers. This really shouldn't be a difficult situation to resolve, which is why the mixed messages through the press reeks of the Wilpons. I just can't fathom Brodie would have misread either side so badly that this drags on into the season.
Why does it have to be misread?  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2019 8:17 am : link
I'm not sure I follow that.

As an agent BVW said he'd like for his client to be signed to an extension.

As a GM he said he'd like to extend the player.

Those two don't need to be an agreement, simply two intents.

I explained before his role has obviously flipped, instead of trying to get maximum $$$ for the player, he's now trying to sign the player for minimum $$$.

It's a negotiation. If the Mets don't get favorable terms then I hope they don't feel pressured into an agreement.

They have all the leverage. JDG's next pitch could be his last.
Wilpons buy back bigger share of team  
GF1080 : 3/25/2019 9:51 am : link
Under the deal, Wilpons investment firm Sterling Equities has agreed to pay roughly $180 million to buy back about a 12 percent stake in the Amazin s from cable giants Comcast and Charter Communications, owner of the Spectrum network, sources close to the situation said.
Link - ( New Window )
If they don misread is that BVW's statement last yr was 100% right  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2019 9:55 am : link
Special emphasis on the last part, because he correctly called out what I believe we have seen come out in both JDG's public comments and Syndergaard's. Last July:
Quote:
We have discussed Jacobs future with the Mets at length. Jacob has expressed interest in exploring a long-term partnership that would keep him in a Mets uniform for years to come, CAAs Brodie van Wagenen told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. If the Mets dont share [the] same interest, we believe their best course of action is to seriously consider trade opportunities now. The inertia of [the] current situation could complicate Jacobs relationship with the club and creates an atmosphere of indecision.


Complicated relationship with JDG? Check.
Atmosphere of indecision? Check.

Being an earner at a high risk job at a company for almost a decade, anyone would feel jilted from having been rebuffed numerous times and not being able to secure the future for your family. It's also human nature that your peers would feel similarly confused and put off by management jerking you around when they clearly see competitive organizations behaving differently. BVW knew those hard feelings were there 8 months ago. He knew they were there better than anyone at his opening PC. And he's rolled the dice that he can manage them at the same time he's trying rebuild a better clubhouse and "player friendly" environment.

I believe his statement was also correct in that this offseason was the time to maximize leverage for both sides - there's risk on the Mets side as well bc the closer he gets to FA the less valuable he is as a trade asset and the more likely he is to leave. This was the time to make the decision either way in either getting the most you can in a trade or the friendliest terms you can. Hiring his former agent and taking on 5 years of Cano seemed to signal their decision, and yet here we are.

3 days from Opening Day and 2 star players are openly questioning management in public. BVW talked about building a positive & "winning" organizational culture. It's not hard to contrast the way the Cardinals and Red Sox got extensions done quickly/quietly this spring with their top players approaching FA with the sideshows that always seem to follow this org. It's also not hard to predict what BVW would be saying if he were still on the other side.

It's very possible his misread was not understanding just how clueless the Wilpons are, how much that is the source of the organizational culture rot, and how impossible it is to change that when they hold the checkbook.
subject got cut off - should say "if they don't extend, misread is..."  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2019 9:56 am : link
also sorry for getting so long winded on that post. I was hoping by the time I finished it they'd announce an extension.
Which competitive  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2019 10:12 am : link
organization signed players 2 years before they hit FA?

You cited the Red Sox with Sale, Corbin, Price, and others.

If you truly want apples to apples it's a case where a team extends a player 2 years before they are eligible to be a FA.

And a pitcher. Pitchers break. The risk of an extension this early is all with the Mets. Which is why they have the leverage.

BVW comments as an agent should not be confused with BVW comments as a GM, they have different goals and roles. And no extension doesn't mean he or anyone misread anything.

It simply means deGrom wants an extension and the Mets, if they want to extend him, it isn't as the same $$$ he wants to get. If they were aligned on the $$$ it probably would have happened already.
If DeGrom truly wants some security  
Metnut : 3/25/2019 10:19 am : link
and to lock in guaranteed money then he should be willing to some sort of team friendly but not unreasonable extension with the Mets. Shame on the Mets if they aren't offering something along those lines.

If DeGrom wants a market rate extension, and is using Sale, Verlander and other FAs at his comp, then that's certainly his right and I don't fault him for that. But, if that's the case, then the Mets shouldn't be ripped on for playing hardball. DeGrom already had TJ, and we've seen him break down a bit toward the end of the season before (not last year obviously).

It's just hard for me to put the blame on either the Mets or DeGrom when I don't know who is offering what or what the parameters of the negotiations are. We're working with incomplete information.
Carlos Carrasco had 2 years left when Cleveland extended him in Dec  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2019 10:23 am : link
they added 2 extra years on top of that and an option for 3rd which would make it a total 5 year deal.

Even though that is the best apples to apples comp for the distance from FA, I actually think the way Trout, Goldschmidt, and Sale were handled is more appropriate since JDG is on a similar "face of the franchise" level. I could have missed it but I didn't see any contentious public squabbling.

Let's also not lose the context of JDG seeing players younger than him like Snell, Severino, and Nola get extended too.

So again, I just see no realistic way BVW wasn't intimately aware of $ parameters when he wrote that statement in July, and after JDG completed his historic season prior to being named GM, and after being named GM and the team opened up negotiations.
Beyond DeGrom, it's frustrating  
Metnut : 3/25/2019 10:28 am : link
to see no effort by the Mets to lock anyone else up. Have they reached out to Syndergaard? Wheeler? Conforto? Nimmo? Alonso?

Teams are being more proactive with extending young talent all the time around baseball but the only situation I've seen the Mets do this is with Lagares.

If you wait for a breakout year, or until the player is close to free agency, you're going to end up paying a lot more.
If Carrasco  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2019 10:35 am : link
is your comp fine, but those numbers are tiny compared to the others.

And I don't think Sale is the face of the Red Sox franchise. Mookie Betts is if you can have only one and Betts is on the deGrom time table for when he hits FA.

Betts hasn't been extended either, don't hear much public griping from him do you?

I separate pitchers from hitters for one reason and it's just my assumption, but pitchers break (more than players). TJS is a year+ lost if the player comes back at all and deGrom had one already, so if he "breaks" again, his career is very possibly over.

Carrasco got a VERY team friendly contract, but deGrom is a better pitcher, but both are 30+ and both had TJS, so I don't really see him as apples to apples either.
RE: Beyond DeGrom, it's frustrating  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2019 10:35 am : link
In comment 14355906 Metnut said:
Quote:
to see no effort by the Mets to lock anyone else up. Have they reached out to Syndergaard? Wheeler? Conforto? Nimmo? Alonso?

Teams are being more proactive with extending young talent all the time around baseball but the only situation I've seen the Mets do this is with Lagares.

If you wait for a breakout year, or until the player is close to free agency, you're going to end up paying a lot more.

Great point. I think it's just an organizational reality that the Wilpons don't like spending $1 more than they have to at any given moment in time. I take BVW at his word in wanting to build a more player friend atmosphere, but I won't believe that's possible until we see the Wilpons do more than make empty gestures.

Even the Alonso thing, the player friendliness of bringing him up early has been played up. But it wouldn't result in paying out more money right now. It would be 5-6-7 years down the road. So losing 1 extra year of control on Alonso and starting his clock early has an opportunity cost, but from a wilpon pov I could see them viewing that as a cheap way to seem player friendly since there's no money out of pocket.
RE: If Carrasco  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2019 10:52 am : link
In comment 14355914 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is your comp fine, but those numbers are tiny compared to the others.

And I don't think Sale is the face of the Red Sox franchise. Mookie Betts is if you can have only one and Betts is on the deGrom time table for when he hits FA.

Betts hasn't been extended either, don't hear much public griping from him do you?

I separate pitchers from hitters for one reason and it's just my assumption, but pitchers break (more than players). TJS is a year+ lost if the player comes back at all and deGrom had one already, so if he "breaks" again, his career is very possibly over.

Carrasco got a VERY team friendly contract, but deGrom is a better pitcher, but both are 30+ and both had TJS, so I don't really see him as apples to apples either.


Betts at age 26 and being a position player without 2 TJS is as apples and oranges as it gets. There is never going to be an exact apples to apples comp for anyone but consider this - out of the top 12 pitchers by fwar from last year, 7 of them have now gotten new contracts this offseason. Sale, Verlander, Corbin, Severino, Nola, Carrasco, and Snell. It just seems statistically improbable there could ever be a year with a higher volume of recent comps. Of the other guys in the top 12, just 1 hasn't been signed long term like JDG - Gerrit Cole - and he is 1 year from FA and repped by Boras.

JDG seems clearly somewhere between Carrasco (same age, years of control, but better pitcher) and Sale (1 year closer to FA, younger, better track record being top 5 in Cy Young voting 7 straight years). The exact halfway point between Carrasco (5 years / 61m) and Sale (6 years / $160m) is $110m. If I had to make a guess for JDG I'd wager he ends up slightly north of that around $120m.
RE: RE: If Carrasco  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2019 10:58 am : link
In comment 14355949 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 14355914 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


is your comp fine, but those numbers are tiny compared to the others.

And I don't think Sale is the face of the Red Sox franchise. Mookie Betts is if you can have only one and Betts is on the deGrom time table for when he hits FA.

Betts hasn't been extended either, don't hear much public griping from him do you?

I separate pitchers from hitters for one reason and it's just my assumption, but pitchers break (more than players). TJS is a year+ lost if the player comes back at all and deGrom had one already, so if he "breaks" again, his career is very possibly over.

Carrasco got a VERY team friendly contract, but deGrom is a better pitcher, but both are 30+ and both had TJS, so I don't really see him as apples to apples either.



Betts at age 26 and being a position player without 2 TJS is as apples and oranges as it gets. There is never going to be an exact apples to apples comp for anyone but consider this - out of the top 12 pitchers by fwar from last year, 7 of them have now gotten new contracts this offseason. Sale, Verlander, Corbin, Severino, Nola, Carrasco, and Snell. It just seems statistically improbable there could ever be a year with a higher volume of recent comps. Of the other guys in the top 12, just 1 hasn't been signed long term like JDG - Gerrit Cole - and he is 1 year from FA and repped by Boras.

JDG seems clearly somewhere between Carrasco (same age, years of control, but better pitcher) and Sale (1 year closer to FA, younger, better track record being top 5 in Cy Young voting 7 straight years). The exact halfway point between Carrasco (5 years / 61m) and Sale (6 years / $160m) is $110m. If I had to make a guess for JDG I'd wager he ends up slightly north of that around $120m.


Agree, good post.
.  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2019 3:55 pm : link

New York Mets
‏Verified account @Mets
43s44 seconds ago

Arguably the most clutch home run in the history of #SpringTraining.

Down to our final out, @TheRealSmith22 cranks a 3-run shot to give us a 9-7 lead!
Why wont McNeil be an every day player  
dep026 : 3/25/2019 4:45 pm : link
Are they really gonna play lowrie over him when he comes back?
RE: Why wont McNeil be an every day player  
Metnut : 3/25/2019 4:48 pm : link
In comment 14356489 dep026 said:
Quote:
Are they really gonna play lowrie over him when he comes back?


Lowrie was a stud last year and is going to play if healthy.

Most likely Lagares would sit and Mets would go with a bat first but bad (but still better than the Bruce/Cespedes edition) defensive OF with Conforto, McNeil, and Nimmo.
Mesoraco  
DanMetroMan : 3/25/2019 4:51 pm : link
apparently is retiring. Mets signing Rene Rivera.
RE: Mesoraco  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2019 4:56 pm : link
In comment 14356503 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
apparently is retiring. Mets signing Rene Rivera.


Good, F-Mesoraco, Rivera to Syracuse?
Fangraphs ranked the Mets rotation as #6 in baseball  
Metnut : 3/25/2019 5:06 pm : link
Personally, I'd take Mets over a few teams ahead of them (primarily, Boston), but it's a depth over top few guys type of things given how at least a few pitchers on each team hit the DL at some point during the year.

Here's what they said about the Mets

"Few teams can run out a top four like the Mets, with the reigning Cy Young winner in deGrom, a legitimate Cy Young candidate in Syndergaard, and two potential studs in Wheeler and Matz. Thor has yet to put up that elite 200-inning season, but he arguably has the best stuff in baseball and if he gets a fully healthy season, New Yorks 1-2 punch will be absurd. Wheeler broke out last year on the heels of an elite fastball and the projections like him to hold most of those gains.

Matz quietly made a career-high 30 starts last year and finished really strongly after a quick stint on the DL for a strained flexor pronator. In his final nine starts, he posted a 3.11 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a 28% strikeout rate. If he builds on that and maybe goes full Wheeler in 2019, the Mets could have four arms with a mid-3.00s ERA or better. Vargas is a perfectly cromulent fifth starter or at least he has been throughout most of his career. His 5.77 ERA last year wont fly again, but he did close with a useful 3.81 ERA in 54 innings down the stretch.

Seth Lugo should be the next man up, but the Mets seem committed to using him in the bullpen. They need to keep getting at least 100 innings out of him in a swingman role or they are leaving production on the table. Hes a fantastic multi-inning relief option and could realistically be called on for 2-3 innings as a piggyback to the Vargas starts.

Santiago isnt too different from Vargas while Lockett, Oswalt, Conlon, Flexen, and Kilome represent your standard 40-grade, prospect backfill types. Im personally rooting for Flexen and Kilome to get significant time in some capacity just for the puns with their names. Chris throws six shutout innings? Mets Flexen on the Marlins in 8-0 Rout. Franklyn gets trounced in a two-inning dud? Youre Kilome smalls!

OK, Ill leave."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-1-15/ - ( New Window )
RE: RE: Mesoraco  
DanMetroMan : 3/25/2019 5:10 pm : link
In comment 14356508 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 14356503 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


apparently is retiring. Mets signing Rene Rivera.



Good, F-Mesoraco, Rivera to Syracuse?


Yeah looks like he's headed to Syracuse to replace Mesoraco. Because he wasn't added to anyone's roster via the upward mobility clause the Mets could elect to hold his rights. This could still be a powerplay but I don't see the point. If nobody claimed him then at the moment nobody "has room".
interesting comment from Britton re: the JDG extension  
Eric on Li : 3/25/2019 7:17 pm : link
kind of fits in with our discussion from earlier.
Quote:
And the dynamic with Van Wagenen adds an interesting element: The GM knows how deGrom would like to be valued, and his negotiation may be as much with ownership as it is with deGroms new agent, Jeff Berry. Judging at least by Syndergaards comments which werent exactly unique within the clubhouse Mets players want to know ownership has their best interests at heart, and they dont always feel that way.


I admire a lot of what BVW has tried to do organizationally. I thought hiring someone who has never been in a front office was a major risk but he's done a lot to win me over. He signed every exec that wasn't nailed down, has invested in analytics aggressively, embraced a more individualized approach to hitting, and clearly wants the team to be viewed as player friendly. Sadly the Wilpons are still the Wilpons though. If JDG were on the Yankees and wanted an extension, is there any doubt it would get done?
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