I have been traveling the last few weeks and have had nothing but time to inundate myself with (I know jack shit about scouting of course), drafting opinions across the board. I have tried to ingest every single thing on the "top 50" and beyond possible Giant targets. At first I liked DH, Lock and Grier. But over and over I found myself circling back to DJ. There are things not to like taken at face value. Meaning, just looking at a bunch of clips and doing an apples to apples comparison with the other QB's.
What has me intrigued is his operation within this system with very inferior players working along side of him. He is under constant duress with a jail break line, and semi-ok D1 level skill players. A few weeks ago I wanted nothing to do with him based on group think. But now, I don't know.
We have a tendency to look at his body of work as a spectator and then judge his performance not in the context of the talent that surrounds him, but rather against, equally, his peers rated higher with much more talent and at many points dominate talent.
I am not saying he is Ben Roethlisbeger, but when I come back to his breakdowns, I come away more impressed with his arm talent and athleticism operating under constant duress with very little explosion at the skill positions. I guess what I am saying is I would not be upset with this QB outside of the #6.
With Murray, you can see the plus athleticism, the ability to make plays when the pocket breaks down, the ability to improvise, make something out of nothing - and on top of that, he throws a great ball.
You can have concerns over Murray's size - I've been one of those people, but you can at least look at the other tools and see the potential to be special.
With Haskins, it's the natural ability as a passer, the ball placement, the football IQ, the accuracy.
Again, with Haskins you can be concerned with the lack of experience, the footwork.. how much is it Meyer being a really good coach / how much is it Haskins being legit?
But at the end of the day, there's so much to like about Haskins and if you believe he's still getting better and will still improve - which I do - he can be really good at the next level.
Drew Lock... the arm. He has the strongest arm in the class. His arm is live, it's exciting and he throws a really nice deep ball almost effortlessly. If you watched what Patrick Mahomes did this past year and want to dream big - Drew Lock is the guy you can dream on in this class. I'm not huge on Lock - but at least the high ceiling is there.
With Lock, you worry about the touch on the shorter passes, the inconsistency, the overall accuracy. I also don't like seeing the QB who has the great JR year and then regresses as a SR. But the experience is a plus for Lock - he was a 3 year starter and even got some play as a freshman. So, you like that part - also an SEC guy, so he's seen some legit defenses. He wasn't just tearing up terrible Big 12 defenses.
But there's big potential there and you can't teach the arm he has.
When it comes to Jones... I just can't hitch my wagon to anything. I see a lot of things where I'm like "well, he looks decent there... that's not bad..." and I can maybe give him the benefit of the doubt in some spots where his supporting cast just wasn't very good.
But I'm looking for things the player does that really stand out and it's hard to find that. I have major concerns about his deep ball. I don't want to sound like a broken record because I've posted this sentiment before - it just seems like the ball kind of dies on him when he's really going down the field and his motion doesn't seem natural. He really seems like he has to heave it to get it deep - like he needs a little bit of a head start.
I can totally see Jones being a decent NFL starter... i.e.. Ryan Tannehill. But that's not what you gamble on @ 6 overall - and to me, you don't even gamble on that in the 1st round at all.
I guess if we did something like BPA defense @ 6, RT/WR/DEF @ 17 and then Jones is still there @ 37 and we take him there, it's less objectionable, but it still seems like a waste to me.
At that point, I'd rather just go with Eli this year and go after the QB in 2020.
I really don't like the idea of kicking the can down the road for another year, though - I think we could find ourselves in a very precarious position that way.
So, my hope is either that we eventually swing something for Rosen (which seems very unlikely), or take Haskins @ 6. I'd be on board with Murray too - but I just don't see Arizona passing.
I don't want to take another project QB and the vet/trade route doesn't appeal to me either unless it's someone young like Rosen who is only a year into his rookie deal.
Jones @ 6 would be infuriating and I'd still be pretty pissed about taking him @ 17.
With Murray, you can see the plus athleticism, the ability to make plays when the pocket breaks down, the ability to improvise, make something out of nothing - and on top of that, he throws a great ball.
You can have concerns over Murray's size - I've been one of those people, but you can at least look at the other tools and see the potential to be special.
With Haskins, it's the natural ability as a passer, the ball placement, the football IQ, the accuracy.
Again, with Haskins you can be concerned with the lack of experience, the footwork.. how much is it Meyer being a really good coach / how much is it Haskins being legit?
But at the end of the day, there's so much to like about Haskins and if you believe he's still getting better and will still improve - which I do - he can be really good at the next level.
Drew Lock... the arm. He has the strongest arm in the class. His arm is live, it's exciting and he throws a really nice deep ball almost effortlessly. If you watched what Patrick Mahomes did this past year and want to dream big - Drew Lock is the guy you can dream on in this class. I'm not huge on Lock - but at least the high ceiling is there.
With Lock, you worry about the touch on the shorter passes, the inconsistency, the overall accuracy. I also don't like seeing the QB who has the great JR year and then regresses as a SR. But the experience is a plus for Lock - he was a 3 year starter and even got some play as a freshman. So, you like that part - also an SEC guy, so he's seen some legit defenses. He wasn't just tearing up terrible Big 12 defenses.
But there's big potential there and you can't teach the arm he has.
When it comes to Jones... I just can't hitch my wagon to anything. I see a lot of things where I'm like "well, he looks decent there... that's not bad..." and I can maybe give him the benefit of the doubt in some spots where his supporting cast just wasn't very good.
But I'm looking for things the player does that really stand out and it's hard to find that. I have major concerns about his deep ball. I don't want to sound like a broken record because I've posted this sentiment before - it just seems like the ball kind of dies on him when he's really going down the field and his motion doesn't seem natural. He really seems like he has to heave it to get it deep - like he needs a little bit of a head start.
I can totally see Jones being a decent NFL starter... i.e.. Ryan Tannehill. But that's not what you gamble on @ 6 overall - and to me, you don't even gamble on that in the 1st round at all.
I guess if we did something like BPA defense @ 6, RT/WR/DEF @ 17 and then Jones is still there @ 37 and we take him there, it's less objectionable, but it still seems like a waste to me.
At that point, I'd rather just go with Eli this year and go after the QB in 2020.
I really don't like the idea of kicking the can down the road for another year, though - I think we could find ourselves in a very precarious position that way.
So, my hope is either that we eventually swing something for Rosen (which seems very unlikely), or take Haskins @ 6. I'd be on board with Murray too - but I just don't see Arizona passing.
I don't want to take another project QB and the vet/trade route doesn't appeal to me either unless it's someone young like Rosen who is only a year into his rookie deal.
Jones @ 6 would be infuriating and I'd still be pretty pissed about taking him @ 17.
Agree with all your points Arc, nice post.
He works through multiple reads well.
He's been schooled in a pro system and started a lot of games.
Despite inferior talent he protected the ball well.
He also does a good job delivering the football accurately while taking big hits.
Then adding all of that up, he led his team to 2 straight bowl wins for the first time in program history.
1 of the big reasons I really like his game against Clemson is that he protected the ball well while still being aggressive downfield and a lot of these qualities are on display. He was good enough to keep his team in the game against the national champs through 3Q, his team just wasn't good enough to make plays around him.
If we were watching tape on Phillip Rivers at NC State, there wouldn't be too many plus skills on display either. That's why most people didn't think he'd be a first round pick. But if you have the mental side of the game you don't need "wow" physical abilities, you just need enough to get the job done. I don't know if Daniel Jones is the next Phillip Rivers or the next Mike Glennon. But if the Giants take him this year I think it's only going to be because they like something about him better than Lock & Haskins. All of them have their fair share of positives + negatives so I've just got my fingers crossed Shurmur/Gettleman choose the right guy.
It's possible. Alex Smith isn't an awful outcome in the first place, he's almost 30 games over .500 in his career record (94-66-1) and made 3 pro bowls. And honestly if he just had the ability to be a little more aggressive downfield he could have been even better.
The coach and scouts are better judges than I - I could be placing too much emphasis in the wrong areas.
I think it's just hard for me to see Daniel Jones being a guy who is ever considered an upper-echelon QB. He strikes me as one of those guys who's successes will always generally hinge on what's around him. And, while that's true of pretty much all players to a degree - there are obviously QB's who elevate their teams - i.e... Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Luck, etc.
I was in my late teens when Rivers/Eli/Ben were all in college, so I only have vague recollection of how they looked back then, but Rivers did have a very statistically impressive senior year @ NC St. - his completion % was @ 72, his adjusted YPA jumped up - there was a pretty clear progression from his JR year and his TD:INT numbers were excellent as a senior.
So, I think with Rivers, even if you were concerned about the deep ball, lack of plus tools, etc... you could at least point to production.
Like Josh Allen last year, we can't really do that with Jones. And like Allen, it's hard to handicap Jones based on his supporting cast/competition, etc. We don't really know how much of the shortcomings were the player himself, or what was around him.
Obviously where Jones and Allen differ is that Allen has a killer arm - Jones doesn't. The players themselves are quite different.
But Jones seems a little more advanced entering the draft and seems to have a better handle on the cerebral part/how to run an offense, etc.
Based on what I've seen, I feel like taking Jones @ 6 would just be a really bad decision because I can already know with certainty that some combination of superior defensive players (and maybe even a QB - i.e.. Haskins/Lock) will still be there - it's mathematically impossible for this not to be the case.
I know that when a team has conviction on a QB, they need to go and get him - and when it was Eli, I was totally on board with doing that... but that was Eli.
Jones @ 6 feels like a really big reach... even @ 17 I feel like we're still passing up superior players. That's why I say a draft that nets him @ 37 is a little easier to swallow.. because I feel like that's closer to his true value. Still wouldn't love it... but it would be easier to accept.
I don't feel like they're as long when I'm typing them up - then I post them and I'm like "ah man... this is TL;DR shit..."
I try to at least break them up so they're easier to scan.
Even Cowgirls...?
It’s rare but on occasion I’ve seen college qbs with statistical anomalies from bad teammates kick those issues in the pros. The 2 knocks on Matt Ryan were his completion percentage and interceptions and neither was an issue in the pros - they were both fine from day 1. It turned out he was just trying to do too much with inferior talent. I don’t feel confident projecting any of the qbs in this class but I see enough to like in all of them to give Gettleman the benefit of doubt whatever way they go.
But this is always about draft value. And I can’t find ANY reason to use any pick on Jones other than a third round or later.
I am not a professional scout either, just a crazy fan who researches everything I can get my hands on for the couple of months leading up to the draft - and the draft is my favorite 3 days of the year (LOL). I'm like a little kid on Christmas morning when I see the TV scroll the "Giants' pick is in". Heck, I hyperventilate waiting for the name.
Although I have no faith in my own scouting judgement, I have a lot of faith in the Giants' scouts, field analysts, coaches, managers, etc., to look into and see far more than any of us can when checking out a QB.
Oh yeah, I simply hate comparisons..."this guy reminds me of ______", "this guy could be a clone of ______", "if I was to compare this guy with another, I'd compare him with ____", etc. Just a kink of mine. No person, player, or individual is "just like" any other previous player or person - not even close. Each player being evaluated is 100% unique and his own man.
+1
With all due respect to those who like Jones for rd 1 or early rd 2 - I don't know what you're watching. His arm strength getting balls consistently to sidelines - don't think he has it. If he doesn't, then he doesn't warrant a 1st rd pick or early 2nd.
Unfortunately, his arm is only okay, and more concerning he ranked 32nd in college for his passing grade, and 31st at qb for an overall grade. Those aren't the numbers of a qb going in the 1st or early 2nd round. I would far prefer Lock, and I think even Grier.
The weird thing is the conflicting reports on arm strength. I've seen scouting report on him that say he has plus arm, but then I read on here all the time on how his arm is poor and he floats passes. Such divergent opinions
Simms squared on Giant options at QB - ( New Window )