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Is it wrong that I like Daniel Jones?

BigBlueJ : 3/24/2019 4:27 pm
I have been traveling the last few weeks and have had nothing but time to inundate myself with (I know jack shit about scouting of course), drafting opinions across the board. I have tried to ingest every single thing on the "top 50" and beyond possible Giant targets. At first I liked DH, Lock and Grier. But over and over I found myself circling back to DJ. There are things not to like taken at face value. Meaning, just looking at a bunch of clips and doing an apples to apples comparison with the other QB's.

What has me intrigued is his operation within this system with very inferior players working along side of him. He is under constant duress with a jail break line, and semi-ok D1 level skill players. A few weeks ago I wanted nothing to do with him based on group think. But now, I don't know.

We have a tendency to look at his body of work as a spectator and then judge his performance not in the context of the talent that surrounds him, but rather against, equally, his peers rated higher with much more talent and at many points dominate talent.

I am not saying he is Ben Roethlisbeger, but when I come back to his breakdowns, I come away more impressed with his arm talent and athleticism operating under constant duress with very little explosion at the skill positions. I guess what I am saying is I would not be upset with this QB outside of the #6.
Essentially, ONLY the Giants are  
Big Blue '56 : 3/24/2019 4:29 pm : link
aware or will be aware of his talents, not most of BBI. So, there is absolutely no right or wrong here. YET.
Yes  
BillT : 3/24/2019 4:31 pm : link
Yes it is. (Does that help?)
No its not  
blueblood : 3/24/2019 4:32 pm : link
you can like whoever you choose to like. The question is do the Giants like him?
It's always good to have different opinions...  
Torrag : 3/24/2019 4:35 pm : link
...it makes for a lively discussion. The one thing I'll say about Jones is he is very prepared, probably the most prepared in this class to come in and manage the game if required. This trait is far down my personal requirements though. That said I do not see the arm talent you mention. His arm is just average.
I like Jones  
kelsto811 : 3/24/2019 4:36 pm : link
But I like Lock better. His throwing ability just reminds me of a poor mans Rodgers. Remember that last year, Mayfield wasn't being talked about as the #1 QB until closer to draft day. I don't think any QB will be taken above Murray, but I don't think that the #2 guy is unanimously Dwayne Haskins either.
I like him after the 1st round  
SHO'NUFF : 3/24/2019 4:36 pm : link
disappointed in his 40 time, actually. I thought he would be much faster.
In a world  
MojoEd : 3/24/2019 4:40 pm : link
where some guys dig girls with big thumbs, who are we to judge?
You're not wrong at all to like him. Your guess is as good as anyones.  
Blue21 : 3/24/2019 4:45 pm : link
I wouldn't be surprised if he was the pick at 17. Part of me says he won't last that long though. I like Haskins alot but find myself thinking he might be too good to be true with his lack of experience. And Haskins might not make it to 6. Oakland might take him or someone might jump up. I don't see the Giants trading up for him and with all the Defensive studs that should be sitting there at six and the defensive help they need they might nor pick DH at 6 anyway. I personally like Jones as well as Lock maybe more. I'd be very surprised if he's there at 17 and the Giants pass on him.
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arcarsenal : 3/24/2019 4:57 pm : link
My problem with Jones is that I just can't find anything really "plus" about him...

With Murray, you can see the plus athleticism, the ability to make plays when the pocket breaks down, the ability to improvise, make something out of nothing - and on top of that, he throws a great ball.

You can have concerns over Murray's size - I've been one of those people, but you can at least look at the other tools and see the potential to be special.

With Haskins, it's the natural ability as a passer, the ball placement, the football IQ, the accuracy.

Again, with Haskins you can be concerned with the lack of experience, the footwork.. how much is it Meyer being a really good coach / how much is it Haskins being legit?

But at the end of the day, there's so much to like about Haskins and if you believe he's still getting better and will still improve - which I do - he can be really good at the next level.

Drew Lock... the arm. He has the strongest arm in the class. His arm is live, it's exciting and he throws a really nice deep ball almost effortlessly. If you watched what Patrick Mahomes did this past year and want to dream big - Drew Lock is the guy you can dream on in this class. I'm not huge on Lock - but at least the high ceiling is there.

With Lock, you worry about the touch on the shorter passes, the inconsistency, the overall accuracy. I also don't like seeing the QB who has the great JR year and then regresses as a SR. But the experience is a plus for Lock - he was a 3 year starter and even got some play as a freshman. So, you like that part - also an SEC guy, so he's seen some legit defenses. He wasn't just tearing up terrible Big 12 defenses.

But there's big potential there and you can't teach the arm he has.

When it comes to Jones... I just can't hitch my wagon to anything. I see a lot of things where I'm like "well, he looks decent there... that's not bad..." and I can maybe give him the benefit of the doubt in some spots where his supporting cast just wasn't very good.

But I'm looking for things the player does that really stand out and it's hard to find that. I have major concerns about his deep ball. I don't want to sound like a broken record because I've posted this sentiment before - it just seems like the ball kind of dies on him when he's really going down the field and his motion doesn't seem natural. He really seems like he has to heave it to get it deep - like he needs a little bit of a head start.

I can totally see Jones being a decent NFL starter... i.e.. Ryan Tannehill. But that's not what you gamble on @ 6 overall - and to me, you don't even gamble on that in the 1st round at all.

I guess if we did something like BPA defense @ 6, RT/WR/DEF @ 17 and then Jones is still there @ 37 and we take him there, it's less objectionable, but it still seems like a waste to me.

At that point, I'd rather just go with Eli this year and go after the QB in 2020.

I really don't like the idea of kicking the can down the road for another year, though - I think we could find ourselves in a very precarious position that way.

So, my hope is either that we eventually swing something for Rosen (which seems very unlikely), or take Haskins @ 6. I'd be on board with Murray too - but I just don't see Arizona passing.

I don't want to take another project QB and the vet/trade route doesn't appeal to me either unless it's someone young like Rosen who is only a year into his rookie deal.

Jones @ 6 would be infuriating and I'd still be pretty pissed about taking him @ 17.
RE: .  
GFAN52 : 3/24/2019 5:07 pm : link
In comment 14355276 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
My problem with Jones is that I just can't find anything really "plus" about him...

With Murray, you can see the plus athleticism, the ability to make plays when the pocket breaks down, the ability to improvise, make something out of nothing - and on top of that, he throws a great ball.

You can have concerns over Murray's size - I've been one of those people, but you can at least look at the other tools and see the potential to be special.

With Haskins, it's the natural ability as a passer, the ball placement, the football IQ, the accuracy.

Again, with Haskins you can be concerned with the lack of experience, the footwork.. how much is it Meyer being a really good coach / how much is it Haskins being legit?

But at the end of the day, there's so much to like about Haskins and if you believe he's still getting better and will still improve - which I do - he can be really good at the next level.

Drew Lock... the arm. He has the strongest arm in the class. His arm is live, it's exciting and he throws a really nice deep ball almost effortlessly. If you watched what Patrick Mahomes did this past year and want to dream big - Drew Lock is the guy you can dream on in this class. I'm not huge on Lock - but at least the high ceiling is there.

With Lock, you worry about the touch on the shorter passes, the inconsistency, the overall accuracy. I also don't like seeing the QB who has the great JR year and then regresses as a SR. But the experience is a plus for Lock - he was a 3 year starter and even got some play as a freshman. So, you like that part - also an SEC guy, so he's seen some legit defenses. He wasn't just tearing up terrible Big 12 defenses.

But there's big potential there and you can't teach the arm he has.

When it comes to Jones... I just can't hitch my wagon to anything. I see a lot of things where I'm like "well, he looks decent there... that's not bad..." and I can maybe give him the benefit of the doubt in some spots where his supporting cast just wasn't very good.

But I'm looking for things the player does that really stand out and it's hard to find that. I have major concerns about his deep ball. I don't want to sound like a broken record because I've posted this sentiment before - it just seems like the ball kind of dies on him when he's really going down the field and his motion doesn't seem natural. He really seems like he has to heave it to get it deep - like he needs a little bit of a head start.

I can totally see Jones being a decent NFL starter... i.e.. Ryan Tannehill. But that's not what you gamble on @ 6 overall - and to me, you don't even gamble on that in the 1st round at all.

I guess if we did something like BPA defense @ 6, RT/WR/DEF @ 17 and then Jones is still there @ 37 and we take him there, it's less objectionable, but it still seems like a waste to me.

At that point, I'd rather just go with Eli this year and go after the QB in 2020.

I really don't like the idea of kicking the can down the road for another year, though - I think we could find ourselves in a very precarious position that way.

So, my hope is either that we eventually swing something for Rosen (which seems very unlikely), or take Haskins @ 6. I'd be on board with Murray too - but I just don't see Arizona passing.

I don't want to take another project QB and the vet/trade route doesn't appeal to me either unless it's someone young like Rosen who is only a year into his rookie deal.

Jones @ 6 would be infuriating and I'd still be pretty pissed about taking him @ 17.


Agree with all your points Arc, nice post.
Good summary Arc  
jpkmets : 3/24/2019 5:12 pm : link
Completely agree.
It's not wrong that you like Jones...  
Johnny5 : 3/24/2019 5:30 pm : link
... Hell I really liked David Klingler (apparently so did the Bengals). Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong... LOL
'and the vet/trade route doesn't appeal to me either'...  
Torrag : 3/24/2019 5:31 pm : link
In general I agree but IF Gruden somehow gets his hands on Murray and decides to jettison Carr I'd be all over that. The team regressed around him and it's been turbulent but he can play. You don't usually go from really good to mediocre as a QB. It's usually the circumstances. Of course that scenario is a longshot at best but I just thought I'd throw it into the arena.
Yes..Good post Arc..and despite some of my concerns if DH  
Blue21 : 3/24/2019 5:36 pm : link
is there at 6 I hope the Giants take him.
He doesn't look sharper than Davis Webb.  
CT Charlie : 3/24/2019 5:41 pm : link
I liked Webb more than most people here did, but I don't want to hitch our wagon to Jones.
the arcs have it!  
ColHowPepper : 3/24/2019 5:53 pm : link
Let the Secretary enter the decision with the record of proceedings.
Arc - I think what's tricky is if he has a "plus" its the mental side  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 5:56 pm : link
I agree with the Tannehill comparison in terms of arm talent + athleticism. In all the physical respects he looks competent but not plus. I don't know how to fully evaluate any player's mental capacity, but beyond the bs Davis Webb "sleeps in the film room", there are some things I see in Jones' play that lead me to believe he might have a very strong ability to process the position and make good decisions.

He works through multiple reads well.
He's been schooled in a pro system and started a lot of games.
Despite inferior talent he protected the ball well.
He also does a good job delivering the football accurately while taking big hits.
Then adding all of that up, he led his team to 2 straight bowl wins for the first time in program history.
1 of the big reasons I really like his game against Clemson is that he protected the ball well while still being aggressive downfield and a lot of these qualities are on display. He was good enough to keep his team in the game against the national champs through 3Q, his team just wasn't good enough to make plays around him.

If we were watching tape on Phillip Rivers at NC State, there wouldn't be too many plus skills on display either. That's why most people didn't think he'd be a first round pick. But if you have the mental side of the game you don't need "wow" physical abilities, you just need enough to get the job done. I don't know if Daniel Jones is the next Phillip Rivers or the next Mike Glennon. But if the Giants take him this year I think it's only going to be because they like something about him better than Lock & Haskins. All of them have their fair share of positives + negatives so I've just got my fingers crossed Shurmur/Gettleman choose the right guy.
I'm thinking Jones'  
mrvax : 3/24/2019 6:06 pm : link
ceiling is similar to Alex Smith. A game manager. Solid backup QB.
RE: I'm thinking Jones'  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 6:11 pm : link
In comment 14355342 mrvax said:
Quote:
ceiling is similar to Alex Smith. A game manager. Solid backup QB.


It's possible. Alex Smith isn't an awful outcome in the first place, he's almost 30 games over .500 in his career record (94-66-1) and made 3 pro bowls. And honestly if he just had the ability to be a little more aggressive downfield he could have been even better.
None of us know - I'll trust the Giants scouts on this  
PatersonPlank : 3/24/2019 6:16 pm : link
I'm ok with Lock or Jones at #17 or #38
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arcarsenal : 3/24/2019 6:33 pm : link
Fair points, Eric - and I can see how an Eli Manning team can find appeal in Jones. There are some parallels and maybe they see him as a guy they can really develop and go to war with for the next decade.

The coach and scouts are better judges than I - I could be placing too much emphasis in the wrong areas.

I think it's just hard for me to see Daniel Jones being a guy who is ever considered an upper-echelon QB. He strikes me as one of those guys who's successes will always generally hinge on what's around him. And, while that's true of pretty much all players to a degree - there are obviously QB's who elevate their teams - i.e... Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Luck, etc.

I was in my late teens when Rivers/Eli/Ben were all in college, so I only have vague recollection of how they looked back then, but Rivers did have a very statistically impressive senior year @ NC St. - his completion % was @ 72, his adjusted YPA jumped up - there was a pretty clear progression from his JR year and his TD:INT numbers were excellent as a senior.

So, I think with Rivers, even if you were concerned about the deep ball, lack of plus tools, etc... you could at least point to production.

Like Josh Allen last year, we can't really do that with Jones. And like Allen, it's hard to handicap Jones based on his supporting cast/competition, etc. We don't really know how much of the shortcomings were the player himself, or what was around him.

Obviously where Jones and Allen differ is that Allen has a killer arm - Jones doesn't. The players themselves are quite different.

But Jones seems a little more advanced entering the draft and seems to have a better handle on the cerebral part/how to run an offense, etc.

Based on what I've seen, I feel like taking Jones @ 6 would just be a really bad decision because I can already know with certainty that some combination of superior defensive players (and maybe even a QB - i.e.. Haskins/Lock) will still be there - it's mathematically impossible for this not to be the case.

I know that when a team has conviction on a QB, they need to go and get him - and when it was Eli, I was totally on board with doing that... but that was Eli.

Jones @ 6 feels like a really big reach... even @ 17 I feel like we're still passing up superior players. That's why I say a draft that nets him @ 37 is a little easier to swallow.. because I feel like that's closer to his true value. Still wouldn't love it... but it would be easier to accept.
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arcarsenal : 3/24/2019 6:35 pm : link
Also, apologies for the super long posts....

I don't feel like they're as long when I'm typing them up - then I post them and I'm like "ah man... this is TL;DR shit..."

I try to at least break them up so they're easier to scan.
Good posts  
English Alaister : 3/24/2019 6:39 pm : link
Arc... agree with you on this.
RE: In a world  
Nomad Crow on the Madison : 3/24/2019 6:41 pm : link
In comment 14355264 MojoEd said:
Quote:
where some guys dig girls with big thumbs, who are we to judge?


Even Cowgirls...?
Iím mostly with you & find it tough to judge whether heís a 1st rder  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2019 6:54 pm : link
But Iíd encourage watching the Clemson game if you havenít. He took a lot of hits, delivered good throws, made some big plays, escaped a couple sacks from guys like Ferrell. Kept them in the game for a lot longer than they had a right to be in it.

Itís rare but on occasion Iíve seen college qbs with statistical anomalies from bad teammates kick those issues in the pros. The 2 knocks on Matt Ryan were his completion percentage and interceptions and neither was an issue in the pros - they were both fine from day 1. It turned out he was just trying to do too much with inferior talent. I donít feel confident projecting any of the qbs in this class but I see enough to like in all of them to give Gettleman the benefit of doubt whatever way they go.
My problem with Jones  
Jay on the Island : 3/24/2019 7:19 pm : link
is that the negatives you read about him are evident when watching him play. His velocity is underwhelming especially on throws to the sidelines which will lead to int's in the NFL. His numbers were very poor as well. I know his team sucked but he had some terrible games last season. Even during his best game I didn't see anything special about him.

Itís certainly okay to like Jones...  
bw in dc : 3/24/2019 7:46 pm : link
Heís got some interesting attributes.

But this is always about draft value. And I canít find ANY reason to use any pick on Jones other than a third round or later.
Agreed BW  
Dave on the UWS : 3/24/2019 8:28 pm : link
Somewhere in the 70s would seem about right for him. If they pick him Rd 1 itís a remote thrower for me.
I just want to go on record  
mavric : 3/24/2019 9:05 pm : link
that I too like Jones and think he might end up the best of the QB lot this year. Size wise, personality wise, character wise, football aptitude, how he relies on intelligence before athleticism, leadership that demands respect from the players, etc., seem to be his selling points.

I am not a professional scout either, just a crazy fan who researches everything I can get my hands on for the couple of months leading up to the draft - and the draft is my favorite 3 days of the year (LOL). I'm like a little kid on Christmas morning when I see the TV scroll the "Giants' pick is in". Heck, I hyperventilate waiting for the name.

Although I have no faith in my own scouting judgement, I have a lot of faith in the Giants' scouts, field analysts, coaches, managers, etc., to look into and see far more than any of us can when checking out a QB.

Oh yeah, I simply hate comparisons..."this guy reminds me of ______", "this guy could be a clone of ______", "if I was to compare this guy with another, I'd compare him with ____", etc. Just a kink of mine. No person, player, or individual is "just like" any other previous player or person - not even close. Each player being evaluated is 100% unique and his own man.
Youíd have to believe that if Jones checks off enough boxes,  
djm : 3/24/2019 9:36 pm : link
Especially with the arm strength stuff, giants would be all over this guy.
RE: My problem with Jones  
giantstock : 3/24/2019 9:36 pm : link
In comment 14355429 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
is that the negatives you read about him are evident when watching him play. His velocity is underwhelming especially on throws to the sidelines which will lead to int's in the NFL. His numbers were very poor as well. I know his team sucked but he had some terrible games last season. Even during his best game I didn't see anything special about him.


+1

With all due respect to those who like Jones for rd 1 or early rd 2 - I don't know what you're watching. His arm strength getting balls consistently to sidelines - don't think he has it. If he doesn't, then he doesn't warrant a 1st rd pick or early 2nd.
I haven't watched a ton of tape  
SirYesSir : 3/24/2019 11:06 pm : link
but I'll admit that he carries himself well on the field. He seems to have the confident body language and nice form you'd want from an nfl qb. Definitely looks the part.

Unfortunately, his arm is only okay, and more concerning he ranked 32nd in college for his passing grade, and 31st at qb for an overall grade. Those aren't the numbers of a qb going in the 1st or early 2nd round. I would far prefer Lock, and I think even Grier.
the more I see, the more I like Lock  
SHO'NUFF : 3/25/2019 1:56 am : link
I just don't know if I like him enough for #6 or #17.
...  
Jay on the Island : 3/25/2019 4:45 pm : link
I think the best comp for Daniel Jones is Blaine Gabbert.
I really like Jones too  
Now Mike in MD : 3/25/2019 7:54 pm : link
watching him, he relly had to go to his 3rd and 4th reads at times. Probably because his WRs were so bad. You can see he has the mental part down.

The weird thing is the conflicting reports on arm strength. I've seen scouting report on him that say he has plus arm, but then I read on here all the time on how his arm is poor and he floats passes. Such divergent opinions
Here is a good peice on Daniel jones  
Pan-handler : 3/25/2019 8:19 pm : link
and some of the other Qbs from Simms.
Simms squared on Giant options at QB - ( New Window )
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