It works, you can get almost anything you want, it's free. Tho I wouldn't throw an SB party for the most part
First time you need to search a bit (you can bookmark the best sites and just go direct when you find one), can get but might have to look for HD. You still should have popup blockers, malware & adblock, and those are still imperfect as some sites still have ads even if invisible over the video, so requires a few clicks to clear overlays. Reddit posts usually say if they are HD or have ads before you click so that helps (and some have 0). It's not paid so it could go out or get stuck & require a reload, but I still don't have huge issue catching what I want especially now that I know which sites are best. That is probably the worst bit but overall not a huge problem
It's imperfect, but for my part especially when laid up for over a year, I got to see almost anything even aside from our 4 majors: MMA, Boxing, Cricket, NBA SL, ST MLB (tho many games are not broadcasted, so reddit provides audio streams)...pretty cool considering. I'd suggest giving it a try - free is free...and most of those packages are ridic overpriced (even AFTER you pay for cable and whatever else)
I meant to respond to but didn't before it was deleted for some reason:
2: The Mets fans re: deGrom - Eric - my comment was about you only. A lot of fans were riding the Mets for not doing this sooner. I don't think the Mets had any obligation and should not have had any expectation to extend deGrom at this point. It just shows how bad they are at PR that they let the message distort into one where they don't even get goodwill out of this move, but more reactions like "it's about time". And my Red Sox comparison with Sale is 100% valid b/c at the player level who cares how much the Red Sox have spent on others or if they just won a WS or anything else, from a player standpoint it's a business. Same with Mookie Betts. Why does Mookie give a shit the Red Sox had the highest payroll in baseball or one of them the past 5 years? He doesn't or shouldn't, he should want to get paid and eve at 26 the future is guaranteed to no one. And it's not just the Red Sox, the early extensions are rare around the league and they're even more rare to be done at market value like this one was.
I think where you are misunderstanding my opinion is that I don't think the mets OWED jdg an extension. I think they owed it to themselves to do the right thing for the org to either secure their asset at a discount or trade the asset at peak value. I would have been fine with either of those 2 options and think BVW's statement last year as JDG's agent was 100% correct in terms of its' content. The Mets were at a fork in the road to either do what they can to invest in the team and compete or go in the other direction. I was also 100% fine with them deciding to hire a GM whose plan was to try to compete right away.
What I didn't want to see happen was uncertainty drag on and the negative consequences noted in BVW's statement become reality. Not because I think JDG deserved better, though perhaps he does, but because it would be a stupid business decision. The core of my point is simply that once the Mets decided to compete the organization was going to be best served being proactive to get him signed because there was too much downside to risk not doing so. Included within that risk was sending a bad message to the clubhouse - which is why I posted about Syndergaard's comments over the past few days being fair and accurate.
And re: my wondering about the miscalculation, that was a result of the mixed messages that were coming from Mets management - because forgetting everything else, the PR message of not getting your top player signed when he wants to be here runs completely counter to everything BVW has tried to do to change the culture of the organization to being more player friendly. He has made that a priority from day 1. And alas, the deal got done, which I have consistently said was almost certain to happen even when JDG first came to camp and said the Mets hadn't even made an offer through yesterday's thread. It just made too much sense for even the Wilpons the screw up. Just not so much sense that they couldn't still squander some of the good will and positive PR of getting it done.
I think the fork should realistically and fairly have been after this season for deGrom.
Traditionally that is when players get extended or if not they get traded - - even during the season.
Manny Machado and Bryce Harper both rode out their rookie deals and neither were extended.
The Orioles of course traded Machado, but the Nats didn't trade Harper. That IMO is a miscalculation.
I think fan pressure and probably BVW the agent pressure pushed the Mets into this. I read on twitter than 24 hours ago they were $30M apart. That's a lot (almost 30% less in contract value). Why the change?
I don't have a problem doing this extension or doing it now, but let's be clear the Mets have all the risk for the next two seasons and they should get more goodwill out of this than they are getting.
Have you used them before? Are they reliable/good? I think reddit MLBStreams seems to be the place to go.
There's a service called yonder.tv for $30 per year that seems right on point (would work for NHL too which is a nice little plus). Has anyone tried that?
Why MLB black outs Nationals and Reds games in Charlotte is something I'll never understand and fly into a rage even thinking about.
Haven't used it for baseball yet, but I cut cable recently and have been using it for Isles games and have been probably 95% successful getting a good link with the feed I want
I think the fork should realistically and fairly have been after this season for deGrom.
Traditionally that is when players get extended or if not they get traded - - even during the season.
Manny Machado and Bryce Harper both rode out their rookie deals and neither were extended.
The Orioles of course traded Machado, but the Nats didn't trade Harper. That IMO is a miscalculation.
I think fan pressure and probably BVW the agent pressure pushed the Mets into this. I read on twitter than 24 hours ago they were $30M apart. That's a lot (almost 30% less in contract value). Why the change?
I don't have a problem doing this extension or doing it now, but let's be clear the Mets have all the risk for the next two seasons and they should get more goodwill out of this than they are getting.
The fork now is because next year you don't get anywhere near a fair offer via trade for an impending FA. The crappy offers the Padres were rumored to be offering for Thor would look good compared to what Goldschmidt returned. And Machado. The Nats said they didn't trade Harper at the deadline because the offers were inferior to just getting the comp pick. That's why Miami had to trade Realmuto now. Bringing JDG into next year without a contract would have been like Reyes all over again. Risking him leaving for nothing would have been as dumb as the Islanders were to not trade Tavares at the deadline, and CBJ for not trading Panarin last summer, etc. JMO but if you are going to lose an MVP level talent you can't risk losing them for nothing. You have to at least get the level of package Chicago got back for Sale.
As it turns out, we didn't get much of a $ discount on the extension as compared to what Sale took, but I'm actually more surprised at how little $ Sale got being so close to FA vs. what JDG got. Sale must have had a real desire to stay in Boston.
Machado was a rental and the O's got back a top 50 prospect, plus 4 others. A full year of deGrom would probably get as much.
and if not, and the Mets couldn't come to terms (which would have been my preference), he walks as a 32/33 year old, with probably 1 or 2 good years left.
You make it seem like everyone who enters their final year under contract is a foregone conclusion they will leave.
By your logic if Mookie Betts doesn't sign before the end of the season he's gone from the Red Sox.
I'm pretty sure Mike Trout and Aaron Judge were selected with comp picks. So there's that.
Trout wasn't a comp pick he was a pick the Angels received when the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira - IOW he was taken by the Angels with the Yankees pick - that system is no longer in place like that, but David Wright was a comp pick.
My point wasn't that comp picks never work out, but in general baseball draft picks, even in the 1st round and compensatory rounds are a crap shoot.
Machado was a rental and the O's got back a top 50 prospect, plus 4 others. A full year of deGrom would probably get as much.
and if not, and the Mets couldn't come to terms (which would have been my preference), he walks as a 32/33 year old, with probably 1 or 2 good years left.
You make it seem like everyone who enters their final year under contract is a foregone conclusion they will leave.
By your logic if Mookie Betts doesn't sign before the end of the season he's gone from the Red Sox.
I appreciate your confidence that the Mets would be competitive for JDG in the hypothetical situation where they chose to not resign him over the next 2 years, but i've personally not seen any evidence they'd be able to compete with the Yankees/Red Sox/LAD/Cubs for a top player. Especially if that player feels he was snubbed.
The time to decide to sign or trade JDG was this offseason. That's why he ultimately got signed - because the timing made sense for both sides. It's pretty inarguable that his trade value would have gone down dramatically next offseason simply due to his contract even if he had another historic season. Vice versa his price tag to resign would have likely only gone up just being that close to FA. Injuries are always a risk, especially for pitchers, if they are able to get insurance that mitigates some of that though.
after this season they would have been the only ones who can re-sign deGrom, because he was not a free agent until after the 2020 season.
And for someone like deGrom, who is > 30 and has not had a "pay day" yet (though let's not be naive, by the time he would have become a FA he'd have probably earned $50M or more), and has already had a TJS he'd still be the one with all the risk. Why risk going into your final year under contract and lose everything?
The Mets would have been offering lifetime, generational, financial security, even if you acknowledge the Mets don't play in the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers stratosphere, they could have made a compelling offer and very possibly not very different than one signed today (like Sale got).
And I have no idea what his trade value would have been next off-season, or even at this deadline, trade values fluctuate, the Yankees got more for a closer rental (Chapman) than any other player in recent memory, why couldn't the market for deGrom have been better - especially in a bad free agent year.
Anyway, point is moot, I'm glad he's signed, I just think the Mets PR team played this terribly. The Mets did go above and beyond here, nothing, I repeat nothing, was owed to the player and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that other teams would have extended a player, especially one with deGrom's profile, 2 years early without a significant discount (if at all).
the reason to sign him wasn't because he was owed something - it's because it's a good idea to keep the best pitcher in the sport, at a large relative discount, if you're trying to win.
His "nondiscount contract" is $73m less than what Scherzer got when he signed with the Nats at the same age 4 years ago. He got less money guaranteed than Patrick Corbin got a few months ago who has only once been top 10 in Cy Young voting (5th last year). Over the last 3 years JDG is the only pitcher in the NL within 3 fwar of Scherzer. There are certainly valid reasons to believe that JDG wasn't going to set a new record with his FA contract due to his age, and that's likely why he's been open to an extension (& taking a discount) so long in the first place. Now we just need to hope he continues producing anywhere near Scherzer - who in just 4 years has already delivered value way beyond his significantly larger contract.
with a TJS and ulnar replacement surgery gotten more in a contract than deGrom? Serious question, I don't know the answer, but any discussion of deGrom's contract has to consider that.
Also, you are comparing older contracts like Scherzer - why not add Sabathia and Greinke in there too. They're irrelevant.
The only relevant comps are Sale, Corbin, etc. or other recent extensions. It's how markets work.
Corbin was a FA, he lived with the risk and got rewarded for it. Sale was a year closer to FA than deGrom.
deGrom was 2 full seasons from FA.
Anyway, we've beaten the snot out of this horse. I am glad he's signed, just not happy with the commentary/messaging around it.
Darvish had TJS and signed for $126m at age 31 last year Â
and he hadn't received a cy young vote in the 2 seasons since his return prior to signing (though he did make 1 all star game). And of course Scherzer is a relevant comp because he and Kershaw are the only pitchers whose performance has been comparable to JDG's the last 4-5 years, though recent contracts are always the most valuable input evaluating the current market.
But I agree the horse has been beaten dead and the bottom line is that it's a good thing for the Mets org to have 1 of the best pitchers in baseball for 5 years. If the next 5 are as good as the last 5, JDG will easily be worth double his contract value or more.
RE: Darvish had TJS and signed for $126m at age 31 last year Â
and he hadn't received a cy young vote in the 2 seasons since his return prior to signing (though he did make 1 all star game). And of course Scherzer is a relevant comp because he and Kershaw are the only pitchers whose performance has been comparable to JDG's the last 4-5 years, though recent contracts are always the most valuable input evaluating the current market.
But I agree the horse has been beaten dead and the bottom line is that it's a good thing for the Mets org to have 1 of the best pitchers in baseball for 5 years. If the next 5 are as good as the last 5, JDG will easily be worth double his contract value or more.
And Darvish was a FA. A fair comp, but he assumed the risk reaching FA.
Agree with you on the value IF, big IF, deGrom's next 5 years are like the prior, but if deGrom is injured in the next 2 it will create a cautionary tale that influences franchise behavior going forward IMO.
and AJ Burnett got some big contracts and he had it at least once. I'm sure there are others too with how pervasive TJS is. Zimmerman is another (he got $110m from detroit in 2016).
with a TJS and ulnar replacement surgery gotten more in a contract than deGrom? Serious question, I don't know the answer, but any discussion of deGrom's contract has to consider that.
Also, you are comparing older contracts like Scherzer - why not add Sabathia and Greinke in there too. They're irrelevant.
The only relevant comps are Sale, Corbin, etc. or other recent extensions. It's how markets work.
Corbin was a FA, he lived with the risk and got rewarded for it. Sale was a year closer to FA than deGrom.
deGrom was 2 full seasons from FA.
Anyway, we've beaten the snot out of this horse. I am glad he's signed, just not happy with the commentary/messaging around it.
PJ,
Strasburg 175 million, Patrick Corbin 140, Johan Santana 137.5 were the biggest contracts for SP who previously had TJ
Totally unrelated but
He's paid like an ace but Zack Greinke is almost underrated by the masses. Over the past 6 seasons he's posted a 2.90 era, 1.08 whip, appeared in 4 ASG's and finished top top 10 in Cy Young voting 4 times
RE: RE: Darvish had TJS and signed for $126m at age 31 last year Â
And Darvish was a FA. A fair comp, but he assumed the risk reaching FA.
Agree with you on the value IF, big IF, deGrom's next 5 years are like the prior, but if deGrom is injured in the next 2 it will create a cautionary tale that influences franchise behavior going forward IMO.
He missed parts of 2/5 seasons so there's some injury time baked in. His first year he was in the minors for a while and then in 2016 he missed the last couple months. And if he got hurt in the next 2 years it would have sucked just as much because he was going to make around the amount he's scheduled to make now. If they are able to get insurance that mitigates a lot of the risk of a major injury.
@FtBendAthletics reporting an aggressive placement for @Mets RHP prospect @simeon_woods... SWR (per the article) will open @ColaFireflies. That should be quite the roster to open the season #Mets
@FtBendAthletics reporting an aggressive placement for @Mets RHP prospect @simeon_woods... SWR (per the article) will open @ColaFireflies. That should be quite the roster to open the season #Mets
@FtBendAthletics reporting an aggressive placement for @Mets RHP prospect @simeon_woods... SWR (per the article) will open @ColaFireflies. That should be quite the roster to open the season #Mets
Where was expected? Kingsport?
Yeah the expectation was Kingsport. Kingsport and BK are mostly interchangeable but they generally keep teens out of BK (for obvious reasons). It's not like a shocking placement but a bit more aggressive than expected. It appears these SWR, Mauricio and Vientos will all be in Columbia. Newton wasn't in MLB ST at any point so he may be held back (BK or Kingsport). Something had to give if he and Mauricio were to remain at SS and Newton (while having massive upside and being older than Mauricio has swing and miss issues, and is more raw).
looking back Fulmer threw 108 innings in the year following his draft, so maybe not.
Not a huge deal but Fulmer was 19 for the entire 2012 season, SWR won't be 19 until after the season so for baseball purposes we are talking basically a full year older. Fulmer was also a top, top top prep arm with heavy workload. SWR is a raw power arm with limited experience. I'd be pretty stunned if they let him get anywhere near 100 innings this year.
but you have to wonder why things change so much, Doc Gooden threw almost 200 innings as an 18 year old in A ball.
Why can't an 18 year old today throw half that?
IOW, 35 years ago 18-year olds could throw 200 innings and pitchers didn't often get hurt, today, they can't throw 100 and pitchers often get hurt.
I wonder if anyone knows why that is.
PJ,
Just as a general statement things I say in regard to innings, placement etc aren't necessarily me saying "well he can't...." rather I'm just going based on track record and what the Mets (and others) generally do now. Could he throw 150 innings? Sure, it's not IMPOSSIBLE, just unlikely (150 is closer to impossible than unlikely but I'm giving an example).
@mets @GMBVW please use some of the 2019 "savings" from JDG new deal to throw out an offer to Keuchel. The guy is a gamer and would boost the rotation from very good to arguably the best in baseball #Mets
but you have to wonder why things change so much, Doc Gooden threw almost 200 innings as an 18 year old in A ball.
Why can't an 18 year old today throw half that?
IOW, 35 years ago 18-year olds could throw 200 innings and pitchers didn't often get hurt, today, they can't throw 100 and pitchers often get hurt.
I wonder if anyone knows why that is.
PJ,
Just as a general statement things I say in regard to innings, placement etc aren't necessarily me saying "well he can't...." rather I'm just going based on track record and what the Mets (and others) generally do now. Could he throw 150 innings? Sure, it's not IMPOSSIBLE, just unlikely (150 is closer to impossible than unlikely but I'm giving an example).
Oh, I know. I wasn't questioning you, just questioning the Mets (and other teams in general) and their handling of pitchers.
Has limited innings of an 18 year old proven anything?
If SWR was a college freshman this year, wouldn't he be ridden into the ground in terms of innings (relatively speaking)?
using a randomly selected sample... Matt Harvey 67.2 innings as a Frosh, Justin Verlander 113 innings (he was 19), 2018 1st overall pick Casey Mize 69 innings, Nola 89.2 (also 19), Bauer 105, Price 69 so generally speaking as Freshman these guys are coddled a bit. Also worth noting, most college teams have "weekend starters" so these guys have more days off. They may pitch every 6th or 7th day so it's not apples to apples.
deferred money with zero interest so theoretically the Mets should be able to spend more.. will they? Doubtful. But 25.5 million deferred over the first 2 seasons of the deal alone!
they are saving the money until Cespedes' slot clears for JDG Â
then they'll do the same with whoever the next big signing is down the line and Cano's slot. Hopefully there's room somewhere for Syndergaard + Conforto. Diaz too if he's the real deal.
deferred money with zero interest so theoretically the Mets should be able to spend more.. will they? Doubtful. But 25.5 million deferred over the first 2 seasons of the deal alone!
deferred money with zero interest so theoretically the Mets should be able to spend more.. will they? Doubtful. But 25.5 million deferred over the first 2 seasons of the deal alone!
Here is link to story. Massive is an understatement Deferred Payments - ( New Window )
Holy shit. That makes this a fucking awful deal for deGrom. Good for the mets. 15 years of no-interest on that amount of money is a fucking massive present-value hit.
How does the deferred work on these things? Do the deferred amounts accrue interest from the 'earned' period through the paid period?
Or is that just the amount he ultimately gets paid years down the line (so the present value is notably less)?
I have to imagine it's the former and not the latter....
It's being reported as having 0% interest and that he will receive lump sums on the 15th anniversary the money was owed ie $12M in 2035, 13.5 million in 2036 and so on.
Wow, why would deGrom agree to that? The deferrals absolutely will reduce the actual value of the deal. I can't imagine this was something he actually wanted - unless I'm mistaken.
I wish I could find the website that had MLB players deferred salaries in a nice spreadsheet. However, I included a website that list them from July 1, 2018. Everyone talks about Bonilla, but I believe Strawberry is still getting more deferred payments. Deferred salaries in MLB - ( New Window )
that's probably the "discount" the Mets got by extending deGrom early.
I hope people understand this, but they probably won't and it will be come another punchline people joke about because others do, but they don't really understand it.
I think though people hoping the Mets use the deferment as a reason to extend others will be disappointed. The Mets will still include the full salary amount in their payroll calculations and they should, otherwise in 2035 they'll add $15m to payroll (for example) because that's when the cash obligation is due.
but that is a nearly fire-ably bad job by his agent.
A person with that much money should quite easily be able to put together a portfolio of debt securities yielding 4-5% annually without taking a ton of risk.
If you conservatively assume 3%, you can take about $19M off that total contract size. at 5%, you're talking more like $27M.
but that is a nearly fire-ably bad job by his agent.
A person with that much money should quite easily be able to put together a portfolio of debt securities yielding 4-5% annually without taking a ton of risk.
If you conservatively assume 3%, you can take about $19M off that total contract size. at 5%, you're talking more like $27M.
One fact worth bringing up is that in 2035 the money won't be subject to NY income tax (assuming he's still a resident of FL). That's a substantial savings and would make up for some of the zero interest deferral.
First time you need to search a bit (you can bookmark the best sites and just go direct when you find one), can get but might have to look for HD. You still should have popup blockers, malware & adblock, and those are still imperfect as some sites still have ads even if invisible over the video, so requires a few clicks to clear overlays. Reddit posts usually say if they are HD or have ads before you click so that helps (and some have 0). It's not paid so it could go out or get stuck & require a reload, but I still don't have huge issue catching what I want especially now that I know which sites are best. That is probably the worst bit but overall not a huge problem
It's imperfect, but for my part especially when laid up for over a year, I got to see almost anything even aside from our 4 majors: MMA, Boxing, Cricket, NBA SL, ST MLB (tho many games are not broadcasted, so reddit provides audio streams)...pretty cool considering. I'd suggest giving it a try - free is free...and most of those packages are ridic overpriced (even AFTER you pay for cable and whatever else)
2: The Mets fans re: deGrom - Eric - my comment was about you only. A lot of fans were riding the Mets for not doing this sooner. I don't think the Mets had any obligation and should not have had any expectation to extend deGrom at this point. It just shows how bad they are at PR that they let the message distort into one where they don't even get goodwill out of this move, but more reactions like "it's about time". And my Red Sox comparison with Sale is 100% valid b/c at the player level who cares how much the Red Sox have spent on others or if they just won a WS or anything else, from a player standpoint it's a business. Same with Mookie Betts. Why does Mookie give a shit the Red Sox had the highest payroll in baseball or one of them the past 5 years? He doesn't or shouldn't, he should want to get paid and eve at 26 the future is guaranteed to no one. And it's not just the Red Sox, the early extensions are rare around the league and they're even more rare to be done at market value like this one was.
I think where you are misunderstanding my opinion is that I don't think the mets OWED jdg an extension. I think they owed it to themselves to do the right thing for the org to either secure their asset at a discount or trade the asset at peak value. I would have been fine with either of those 2 options and think BVW's statement last year as JDG's agent was 100% correct in terms of its' content. The Mets were at a fork in the road to either do what they can to invest in the team and compete or go in the other direction. I was also 100% fine with them deciding to hire a GM whose plan was to try to compete right away.
What I didn't want to see happen was uncertainty drag on and the negative consequences noted in BVW's statement become reality. Not because I think JDG deserved better, though perhaps he does, but because it would be a stupid business decision. The core of my point is simply that once the Mets decided to compete the organization was going to be best served being proactive to get him signed because there was too much downside to risk not doing so. Included within that risk was sending a bad message to the clubhouse - which is why I posted about Syndergaard's comments over the past few days being fair and accurate.
And re: my wondering about the miscalculation, that was a result of the mixed messages that were coming from Mets management - because forgetting everything else, the PR message of not getting your top player signed when he wants to be here runs completely counter to everything BVW has tried to do to change the culture of the organization to being more player friendly. He has made that a priority from day 1. And alas, the deal got done, which I have consistently said was almost certain to happen even when JDG first came to camp and said the Mets hadn't even made an offer through yesterday's thread. It just made too much sense for even the Wilpons the screw up. Just not so much sense that they couldn't still squander some of the good will and positive PR of getting it done.
Traditionally that is when players get extended or if not they get traded - - even during the season.
Manny Machado and Bryce Harper both rode out their rookie deals and neither were extended.
The Orioles of course traded Machado, but the Nats didn't trade Harper. That IMO is a miscalculation.
I think fan pressure and probably BVW the agent pressure pushed the Mets into this. I read on twitter than 24 hours ago they were $30M apart. That's a lot (almost 30% less in contract value). Why the change?
I don't have a problem doing this extension or doing it now, but let's be clear the Mets have all the risk for the next two seasons and they should get more goodwill out of this than they are getting.
Quote:
In comment 14357672 Metnut said:
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Don't want to go the reddit stream route?
Have you used them before? Are they reliable/good? I think reddit MLBStreams seems to be the place to go.
There's a service called yonder.tv for $30 per year that seems right on point (would work for NHL too which is a nice little plus). Has anyone tried that?
Why MLB black outs Nationals and Reds games in Charlotte is something I'll never understand and fly into a rage even thinking about.
Haven't used it for baseball yet, but I cut cable recently and have been using it for Isles games and have been probably 95% successful getting a good link with the feed I want
Traditionally that is when players get extended or if not they get traded - - even during the season.
Manny Machado and Bryce Harper both rode out their rookie deals and neither were extended.
The Orioles of course traded Machado, but the Nats didn't trade Harper. That IMO is a miscalculation.
I think fan pressure and probably BVW the agent pressure pushed the Mets into this. I read on twitter than 24 hours ago they were $30M apart. That's a lot (almost 30% less in contract value). Why the change?
I don't have a problem doing this extension or doing it now, but let's be clear the Mets have all the risk for the next two seasons and they should get more goodwill out of this than they are getting.
The fork now is because next year you don't get anywhere near a fair offer via trade for an impending FA. The crappy offers the Padres were rumored to be offering for Thor would look good compared to what Goldschmidt returned. And Machado. The Nats said they didn't trade Harper at the deadline because the offers were inferior to just getting the comp pick. That's why Miami had to trade Realmuto now. Bringing JDG into next year without a contract would have been like Reyes all over again. Risking him leaving for nothing would have been as dumb as the Islanders were to not trade Tavares at the deadline, and CBJ for not trading Panarin last summer, etc. JMO but if you are going to lose an MVP level talent you can't risk losing them for nothing. You have to at least get the level of package Chicago got back for Sale.
As it turns out, we didn't get much of a $ discount on the extension as compared to what Sale took, but I'm actually more surprised at how little $ Sale got being so close to FA vs. what JDG got. Sale must have had a real desire to stay in Boston.
Machado was a rental and the O's got back a top 50 prospect, plus 4 others. A full year of deGrom would probably get as much.
and if not, and the Mets couldn't come to terms (which would have been my preference), he walks as a 32/33 year old, with probably 1 or 2 good years left.
You make it seem like everyone who enters their final year under contract is a foregone conclusion they will leave.
By your logic if Mookie Betts doesn't sign before the end of the season he's gone from the Red Sox.
The rules have changed. All first round picks are now protected
Trout wasn't a comp pick he was a pick the Angels received when the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira - IOW he was taken by the Angels with the Yankees pick - that system is no longer in place like that, but David Wright was a comp pick.
My point wasn't that comp picks never work out, but in general baseball draft picks, even in the 1st round and compensatory rounds are a crap shoot.
Machado was a rental and the O's got back a top 50 prospect, plus 4 others. A full year of deGrom would probably get as much.
and if not, and the Mets couldn't come to terms (which would have been my preference), he walks as a 32/33 year old, with probably 1 or 2 good years left.
You make it seem like everyone who enters their final year under contract is a foregone conclusion they will leave.
By your logic if Mookie Betts doesn't sign before the end of the season he's gone from the Red Sox.
I appreciate your confidence that the Mets would be competitive for JDG in the hypothetical situation where they chose to not resign him over the next 2 years, but i've personally not seen any evidence they'd be able to compete with the Yankees/Red Sox/LAD/Cubs for a top player. Especially if that player feels he was snubbed.
The time to decide to sign or trade JDG was this offseason. That's why he ultimately got signed - because the timing made sense for both sides. It's pretty inarguable that his trade value would have gone down dramatically next offseason simply due to his contract even if he had another historic season. Vice versa his price tag to resign would have likely only gone up just being that close to FA. Injuries are always a risk, especially for pitchers, if they are able to get insurance that mitigates some of that though.
And for someone like deGrom, who is > 30 and has not had a "pay day" yet (though let's not be naive, by the time he would have become a FA he'd have probably earned $50M or more), and has already had a TJS he'd still be the one with all the risk. Why risk going into your final year under contract and lose everything?
The Mets would have been offering lifetime, generational, financial security, even if you acknowledge the Mets don't play in the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers stratosphere, they could have made a compelling offer and very possibly not very different than one signed today (like Sale got).
And I have no idea what his trade value would have been next off-season, or even at this deadline, trade values fluctuate, the Yankees got more for a closer rental (Chapman) than any other player in recent memory, why couldn't the market for deGrom have been better - especially in a bad free agent year.
Anyway, point is moot, I'm glad he's signed, I just think the Mets PR team played this terribly. The Mets did go above and beyond here, nothing, I repeat nothing, was owed to the player and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that other teams would have extended a player, especially one with deGrom's profile, 2 years early without a significant discount (if at all).
His "nondiscount contract" is $73m less than what Scherzer got when he signed with the Nats at the same age 4 years ago. He got less money guaranteed than Patrick Corbin got a few months ago who has only once been top 10 in Cy Young voting (5th last year). Over the last 3 years JDG is the only pitcher in the NL within 3 fwar of Scherzer. There are certainly valid reasons to believe that JDG wasn't going to set a new record with his FA contract due to his age, and that's likely why he's been open to an extension (& taking a discount) so long in the first place. Now we just need to hope he continues producing anywhere near Scherzer - who in just 4 years has already delivered value way beyond his significantly larger contract.
Also, you are comparing older contracts like Scherzer - why not add Sabathia and Greinke in there too. They're irrelevant.
The only relevant comps are Sale, Corbin, etc. or other recent extensions. It's how markets work.
Corbin was a FA, he lived with the risk and got rewarded for it. Sale was a year closer to FA than deGrom.
deGrom was 2 full seasons from FA.
Anyway, we've beaten the snot out of this horse. I am glad he's signed, just not happy with the commentary/messaging around it.
But I agree the horse has been beaten dead and the bottom line is that it's a good thing for the Mets org to have 1 of the best pitchers in baseball for 5 years. If the next 5 are as good as the last 5, JDG will easily be worth double his contract value or more.
But I agree the horse has been beaten dead and the bottom line is that it's a good thing for the Mets org to have 1 of the best pitchers in baseball for 5 years. If the next 5 are as good as the last 5, JDG will easily be worth double his contract value or more.
And Darvish was a FA. A fair comp, but he assumed the risk reaching FA.
Agree with you on the value IF, big IF, deGrom's next 5 years are like the prior, but if deGrom is injured in the next 2 it will create a cautionary tale that influences franchise behavior going forward IMO.
Also, you are comparing older contracts like Scherzer - why not add Sabathia and Greinke in there too. They're irrelevant.
The only relevant comps are Sale, Corbin, etc. or other recent extensions. It's how markets work.
Corbin was a FA, he lived with the risk and got rewarded for it. Sale was a year closer to FA than deGrom.
deGrom was 2 full seasons from FA.
Anyway, we've beaten the snot out of this horse. I am glad he's signed, just not happy with the commentary/messaging around it.
PJ,
Strasburg 175 million, Patrick Corbin 140, Johan Santana 137.5 were the biggest contracts for SP who previously had TJ
Totally unrelated but
He's paid like an ace but Zack Greinke is almost underrated by the masses. Over the past 6 seasons he's posted a 2.90 era, 1.08 whip, appeared in 4 ASG's and finished top top 10 in Cy Young voting 4 times
And Darvish was a FA. A fair comp, but he assumed the risk reaching FA.
Agree with you on the value IF, big IF, deGrom's next 5 years are like the prior, but if deGrom is injured in the next 2 it will create a cautionary tale that influences franchise behavior going forward IMO.
He missed parts of 2/5 seasons so there's some injury time baked in. His first year he was in the minors for a while and then in 2016 he missed the last couple months. And if he got hurt in the next 2 years it would have sucked just as much because he was going to make around the amount he's scheduled to make now. If they are able to get insurance that mitigates a lot of the risk of a major injury.
Where was expected? Kingsport?
Quote:
@FtBendAthletics reporting an aggressive placement for @Mets RHP prospect @simeon_woods... SWR (per the article) will open @ColaFireflies. That should be quite the roster to open the season #Mets
Where was expected? Kingsport?
Yeah the expectation was Kingsport. Kingsport and BK are mostly interchangeable but they generally keep teens out of BK (for obvious reasons). It's not like a shocking placement but a bit more aggressive than expected. It appears these SWR, Mauricio and Vientos will all be in Columbia. Newton wasn't in MLB ST at any point so he may be held back (BK or Kingsport). Something had to give if he and Mauricio were to remain at SS and Newton (while having massive upside and being older than Mauricio has swing and miss issues, and is more raw).
Not a huge deal but Fulmer was 19 for the entire 2012 season, SWR won't be 19 until after the season so for baseball purposes we are talking basically a full year older. Fulmer was also a top, top top prep arm with heavy workload. SWR is a raw power arm with limited experience. I'd be pretty stunned if they let him get anywhere near 100 innings this year.
Why can't an 18 year old today throw half that?
IOW, 35 years ago 18-year olds could throw 200 innings and pitchers didn't often get hurt, today, they can't throw 100 and pitchers often get hurt.
I wonder if anyone knows why that is.
Why can't an 18 year old today throw half that?
IOW, 35 years ago 18-year olds could throw 200 innings and pitchers didn't often get hurt, today, they can't throw 100 and pitchers often get hurt.
I wonder if anyone knows why that is.
PJ,
Just as a general statement things I say in regard to innings, placement etc aren't necessarily me saying "well he can't...." rather I'm just going based on track record and what the Mets (and others) generally do now. Could he throw 150 innings? Sure, it's not IMPOSSIBLE, just unlikely (150 is closer to impossible than unlikely but I'm giving an example).
Quote:
but you have to wonder why things change so much, Doc Gooden threw almost 200 innings as an 18 year old in A ball.
Why can't an 18 year old today throw half that?
IOW, 35 years ago 18-year olds could throw 200 innings and pitchers didn't often get hurt, today, they can't throw 100 and pitchers often get hurt.
I wonder if anyone knows why that is.
PJ,
Just as a general statement things I say in regard to innings, placement etc aren't necessarily me saying "well he can't...." rather I'm just going based on track record and what the Mets (and others) generally do now. Could he throw 150 innings? Sure, it's not IMPOSSIBLE, just unlikely (150 is closer to impossible than unlikely but I'm giving an example).
Oh, I know. I wasn't questioning you, just questioning the Mets (and other teams in general) and their handling of pitchers.
Has limited innings of an 18 year old proven anything?
If SWR was a college freshman this year, wouldn't he be ridden into the ground in terms of innings (relatively speaking)?
There is a good article on college pitchers and their usage linked below.
College Pitchers Workload - ( New Window )
Sounded iffy to me even when I posted it. Much like when post draft articles say HS players are headed to St. Lucie.. yeah... GCL lol
I went to a ST game and sat in section 124. Very nice people in that section do you know them?
Or is that just the amount he ultimately gets paid years down the line (so the present value is notably less)?
I have to imagine it's the former and not the latter....
Here is link to story. Massive is an understatement
Deferred Payments - ( New Window )
Quote:
deferred money with zero interest so theoretically the Mets should be able to spend more.. will they? Doubtful. But 25.5 million deferred over the first 2 seasons of the deal alone!
Here is link to story. Massive is an understatement Deferred Payments - ( New Window )
Holy shit. That makes this a fucking awful deal for deGrom. Good for the mets. 15 years of no-interest on that amount of money is a fucking massive present-value hit.
Or is that just the amount he ultimately gets paid years down the line (so the present value is notably less)?
I have to imagine it's the former and not the latter....
It's being reported as having 0% interest and that he will receive lump sums on the 15th anniversary the money was owed ie $12M in 2035, 13.5 million in 2036 and so on.
That's shitty.
I wish I could find the website that had MLB players deferred salaries in a nice spreadsheet. However, I included a website that list them from July 1, 2018. Everyone talks about Bonilla, but I believe Strawberry is still getting more deferred payments.
Deferred salaries in MLB - ( New Window )
that's probably the "discount" the Mets got by extending deGrom early.
I hope people understand this, but they probably won't and it will be come another punchline people joke about because others do, but they don't really understand it.
I think though people hoping the Mets use the deferment as a reason to extend others will be disappointed. The Mets will still include the full salary amount in their payroll calculations and they should, otherwise in 2035 they'll add $15m to payroll (for example) because that's when the cash obligation is due.
A person with that much money should quite easily be able to put together a portfolio of debt securities yielding 4-5% annually without taking a ton of risk.
If you conservatively assume 3%, you can take about $19M off that total contract size. at 5%, you're talking more like $27M.
A person with that much money should quite easily be able to put together a portfolio of debt securities yielding 4-5% annually without taking a ton of risk.
If you conservatively assume 3%, you can take about $19M off that total contract size. at 5%, you're talking more like $27M.
One fact worth bringing up is that in 2035 the money won't be subject to NY income tax (assuming he's still a resident of FL). That's a substantial savings and would make up for some of the zero interest deferral.
but that's beyond my are of expertise, even as someone with an accounting degree.
but that's beyond my are of expertise, even as someone with an accounting degree.
*area