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NFT: Yanks Talk - 3/26 - ST Over; Opening Day Next!

arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 11:31 am
Wrapped up the spring last night in DC. What did we learn?

Get out of the way!

After Miggy got pegged in the ribcage, I had my hand on my face saying "oh boy..."

Thankfully, he's fine. Bird is also fine.

Speaking of...

Gregory Bird put together quite a spring.

.333/.500/.643/1.143 - 3 HR, 10 RBI, 10 K, 13 BB

Big Luke is certainly not going to go quietly, though...

.289/.365/.578/.943 - 4 HR, 12 RBI, 12 K, 6 BB

Bird's plate discipline was better, but neither guy ceded much ground to the other. Can't complain about that... competition breeds excellence!

Alex Cobb was scratched from his OD start, so it's going to be Masa against Andrew Cashner.

Dellin played some catch and that went well. I believe CC has a bullpen session scheduled for today.

Tarpley had a really nice spring.

12.2 IP - 1.42 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 9 K, 1 BB, .186

Earned a spot - though I think he'll be riding the SWB shuttle a few times through the course of the year.

We had a mini prediction thing in the thread last night which was fun - maybe we can expand on that a little here.

I had...

1) Team leader in Batting Average? M. Andujar .301
2) Team leader in ERA? L. Severino - 2.91
3) Team leader in HR? G. Stanton - 52
4) Team leader in WAR? A. Judge - 8.5

Record prediction?

98-64 (ALE Champs)

Forecast looking good as of right now... I'm ready for baseball.
52 bombs for Stanton eh? Let's hope so!  
Jints in Carolina : 3/26/2019 11:42 am : link
Also, I think Judge has an MVP type year.
Tough to argue  
section125 : 3/26/2019 11:44 am : link
your picks but:

BA - Judge .310 (new two strike approach)
ERA - Severino - 2.76
HRs - Stanton - 46
WAR - Judge 7.8

Highest AVG? Is it the '90s still? :=)  
giants#1 : 3/26/2019 11:46 am : link
Highest OBP - Bird .452

Just give us 300 games healthy  
arniefez : 3/26/2019 11:48 am : link
from Stanton and Judge and we'll take our chances.
The hell with predictions...  
Dunedin81 : 3/26/2019 12:06 pm : link
they can lead the league in strikeouts and hit batsmen for all I care, as long as they're still playing at the end of October.
Its really point less to guess stats.  
superspynyg : 3/26/2019 12:10 pm : link
So what (if any)are your game 1 tradions?

I am off. So its Chilli dogs and beer.
RE: Highest AVG? Is it the '90s still? :=)  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:16 pm : link
In comment 14357311 giants#1 said:
Quote:
Highest OBP - Bird .452


Hah, I was using RP's choices from last night - just following suit! :)

I do still have an appreciation for the .300 hitter, though.

52 bombs for Stanton is definitely ambitious - but the guy hit 58 just 2 years ago playing in an absolutely cavernous park.

He had to carry the offense too much last year when Judge was down - or probably felt like he needed to - plus, it was his first year in the Bronx, so I think he was pressing in some spots just a bit.

He should be way more comfortable now and should do a lot of hitting behind Judge.

I know predictions and projections don't really mean shit, but I like to look back when all is said and done just for kicks to see how close/off we were and how things changed throughout the year.
Come on arc -  
section125 : 3/26/2019 12:19 pm : link
it was 59 bombs with the Marlins.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:20 pm : link
Holder quietly had a really sharp spring as well.

Even if Chapman has his usual DL stint at some point and Betances starts slow - this bullpen is just ridiculously loaded.

Still have Ottavino, Britton, Green, Holder, Tarpley and Kahnle...

That's serious, serious depth.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:20 pm : link
Hah, you're right... I am off by one.

59!
Giancarlo also played through a bad hammy  
mfsd : 3/26/2019 12:22 pm : link
down the stretch last season, refusing to rest since it was his first real playoff chase. I think he’s locked in for a big season

Stab at Opening Day lineup:

Gardy CF
Judge RF
Stanton LF
Voit DH
Bird 1B
Sanchez C
Torres 2B
Andujar 3B
Tulo SS



What do y’all think?
RE: Giancarlo also played through a bad hammy  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:26 pm : link
In comment 14357419 mfsd said:
Quote:
down the stretch last season, refusing to rest since it was his first real playoff chase. I think he’s locked in for a big season

Stab at Opening Day lineup:

Gardy CF
Judge RF
Stanton LF
Voit DH
Bird 1B
Sanchez C
Torres 2B
Andujar 3B
Tulo SS



What do y’all think?


I like it!

I think the Sanchez-Torres-Andjuar portion could go a number of ways, but this is probably pretty close to what Boone will do.

Gardy-Judge-Giancarlo should be a lock to be 1-3.
Bird had the better peripheral numbers over Voit  
Pan-handler : 3/26/2019 12:26 pm : link
.500 OBP (that's sick) and less Ks.

Voit though did quite well himself.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:29 pm : link
There are going to be a lot of lineup combos.

When Hicks is good to go, I think we'll see him leadoff, push Gardy down to 9 if he's in LF.

Stanton will DH.

Bird/Voit @ 1B will depend on pitcher.

A lineup like this could have DJ @ 2B and Gleyber @ SS - or it could stick with Tulo @ SS and Gley @ 2B.

DJ will get games @ 1B.

I also wouldn't be shocked if Boone used DJ @ 3B here and there and puts Miggy in the DH spot.

In that situation, you'd likely have Stanton in LF.

Lots of things we can do.
Andujar is likely to bat  
section125 : 3/26/2019 12:34 pm : link
higher in the line up. He was the team's leading hitter last year.

Gardy
Judge
Giancarlo
Voit
Andujar
Bird
Sanchez
Torres
Tulo

IMHO
even pre-injury  
UConn4523 : 3/26/2019 12:41 pm : link
I don't see Sevy as a sub 3 era pitcher. He can hover around it but anything under 3 would put in him 20+ win territory which I don't think happens.

I like him around 3.15 (assuming this injury doesn't completely fuck him up).
RE: even pre-injury  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:47 pm : link
In comment 14357467 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
I don't see Sevy as a sub 3 era pitcher. He can hover around it but anything under 3 would put in him 20+ win territory which I don't think happens.

I like him around 3.15 (assuming this injury doesn't completely fuck him up).


I mean, he just was in 2017... (2.98)

He finished 3rd in the CYA voting.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:50 pm : link
Even with Severino's struggles late last year, he finished the year with a 2.95 FIP.

On July 1, he had a 1.98 ERA.

Obviously some combination of tipping pitches/fatigue wore him down later in the year. But if he can get through this shoulder issue and be back in the rotation by the end of April/Early May without any setback, we should hopefully see more of the first half Sevy.
Didn't watch much Spring Training  
Pan-handler : 3/26/2019 12:52 pm : link
Did Sanchez at least flash a little bit? The numbers overall still don't look promising.
RE: Didn't watch much Spring Training  
section125 : 3/26/2019 12:53 pm : link
In comment 14357495 Pan-handler said:
Quote:
Did Sanchez at least flash a little bit? The numbers overall still don't look promising.


Last handful of games he start making contact, even going oppo. He is still not "back" quite yet. However, he did look quicker behind the plate. I think he gradually gets his eye back.
RE: .  
Pan-handler : 3/26/2019 12:54 pm : link
In comment 14357492 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
Even with Severino's struggles late last year, he finished the year with a 2.95 FIP.

On July 1, he had a 1.98 ERA.

Obviously some combination of tipping pitches/fatigue wore him down later in the year. But if he can get through this shoulder issue and be back in the rotation by the end of April/Early May without any setback, we should hopefully see more of the first half Sevy.


That first half wasn't an aberration. Sample size is not small the year prior he was geat. This kid is a stud pitcher. If he corrects a couple things he should be back to being dominant again.
RE: Didn't watch much Spring Training  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 12:56 pm : link
In comment 14357495 Pan-handler said:
Quote:
Did Sanchez at least flash a little bit? The numbers overall still don't look promising.


Still having trouble with the stick... but it's ST.

Just like I don't want to put too much stock in a hot spring for Bird, I don't want to make too much of Sanchez'.

If we get through April and he's still struggling, I'll probably worry more. For now, though... too early.
RE: RE: Didn't watch much Spring Training  
bigbluehoya : 3/26/2019 12:58 pm : link
In comment 14357499 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 14357495 Pan-handler said:


Quote:


Did Sanchez at least flash a little bit? The numbers overall still don't look promising.



Last handful of games he start making contact, even going oppo. He is still not "back" quite yet. However, he did look quicker behind the plate. I think he gradually gets his eye back.


The good news has always been -- the eye was never really gone, even if the eye test said he swung at some bad pitches. 12%+ walk rate last year.

This, and the fact that his batted ball profile hardly changed at all, are what has had me believing all along that it was just a perfect shitstorm of injuries and getting severely BABIP'd.
RE: RE: RE: Didn't watch much Spring Training  
section125 : 3/26/2019 1:09 pm : link
In comment 14357510 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
In comment 14357499 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 14357495 Pan-handler said:


Quote:


Did Sanchez at least flash a little bit? The numbers overall still don't look promising.



Last handful of games he start making contact, even going oppo. He is still not "back" quite yet. However, he did look quicker behind the plate. I think he gradually gets his eye back.



The good news has always been -- the eye was never really gone, even if the eye test said he swung at some bad pitches. 12%+ walk rate last year.

This, and the fact that his batted ball profile hardly changed at all, are what has had me believing all along that it was just a perfect shitstorm of injuries and getting severely BABIP'd.


Agree on BABIP'ed last year. But he was swinging at a lot of bad pitches. Call it eye, call it timing, he is still a bit off.
RE: RE: even pre-injury  
UConn4523 : 3/26/2019 1:27 pm : link
In comment 14357486 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
In comment 14357467 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


I don't see Sevy as a sub 3 era pitcher. He can hover around it but anything under 3 would put in him 20+ win territory which I don't think happens.

I like him around 3.15 (assuming this injury doesn't completely fuck him up).



I mean, he just was in 2017... (2.98)

He finished 3rd in the CYA voting.


I know. Just think its wishful thinking is all. I don't see him as a perennial sub 3 ERA pitcher. Going to have to have a monster year/s to consistently do that.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 1:37 pm : link
If we remove the 2016 mess where he had to get yanked from the rotation and just didn't have it, his career ERA is 3.08 - so, it's not like he's far off or like it would take a big step for him to get there.

It's an arbitrary cutoff anyway, it's not like it matters if he's @ 2.95 or 3.05.. the latter could easily represent a better year. I like FIP more anyway.

But, I'm pretty confident in Sevy to be a legit TOR Ace as long as he doesn't wind up having any setbacks with the shoulder... fingers crossed.

Key right now is just getting him healthy and back in the fold.

Bird  
Jay in Toronto : 3/26/2019 1:51 pm : link
Like the fact that he was creaming the ball to left side.

Wonder where his grounders were hit?
Let's go!  
RasputinPrime : 3/26/2019 2:10 pm : link
1) Team leader in Batting Average? Andujar .306
2) Team leader in ERA? Severino 2.63
3) Team leader in HR? Judge 45
4) Team leader in WAR? Judge 8.6

Team Record 105-57

The success in 2019 will come down to health. Hopefully the management of injuries remains a priority because while we have depth, we need our stars to remain at the top of their game. Let's pray for some lady-luck as well.

I think we get a Stanton-Judge remake of Maris-Mantle. I hope for fewer homers and a higher batting average with less K's in this onslaught.

We need Gary to get scary - in a 2017 good way. He is a big X-factor in our success with improved D and a better approach at the plate where he starts going to RF and overcomes a shift that stole about 30 hits from him last year.

We didn't land Corbin but instead brought in the seasoned Happ to team up with Big Maple. I think one of them is going to have a career year and become a huge fan favorite.

It's time for the ace we waited for to seize the spotlight. I say he does that in 2019.


52 | He is one of the best Yankees pitchers of all-time. Can't wait to watch him dominate his final season Moose-style.

Voit and Bird are going to make the brothers-from-anothermuther fun to watch.

Perhaps my favorite story this season will be whether Cashless Hal pinched pennies he shouldn't have or not.
.

Let's make this a season to remember.
I'll tell you what though...  
Dunedin81 : 3/26/2019 2:12 pm : link
if healthy it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Paxton outpitches Corbin.
RE: Giancarlo also played through a bad hammy  
Carson53 : 3/26/2019 2:20 pm : link
In comment 14357419 mfsd said:
Quote:
down the stretch last season, refusing to rest since it was his first real playoff chase. I think he’s locked in for a big season

Stab at Opening Day lineup:

Gardy CF
Judge RF
Stanton LF
Voit DH
Bird 1B
Sanchez C
Torres 2B
Andujar 3B
Tulo SS



What do y’all think?


I don't think Andujar will bat 8th, see him hitting 5th.
Maybe Bird 7th, then Torres and Tulo.
.  
arcarsenal : 3/26/2019 4:06 pm : link
Digging the hype post, RP!

Dune - I wouldn't be surprised by that either. Biggest thing for Paxton is just staying out there and taking the ball every 5th day. Stuff is certainly there - I like his pure stuff more than I like Corbin's, actually.

Big Maple looks like he's got a beautiful day lined up for him as of now...
we face some stiff competition from Houston and Boston  
RasputinPrime : 3/26/2019 5:23 pm : link
but if we stay healthy there is ever reason to think championship.
Pan-handler  
arniefez : 3/26/2019 5:25 pm : link
No. Not at all. Looked exactly like last year.
RE: Let's go!  
Jay in Toronto : 3/26/2019 5:35 pm : link
In comment 14357632 RasputinPrime said:
Quote:


We didn't land Corbin but instead brought in the seasoned Happ to team up with Big Maple. I think one of them is going to have a career year and become a huge fan favorite.




This


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