*Rosen Theory from an NFC North personnel guy

Oak prob won’t either but you never know. Looks like AZ is stuck with a decision at 1.

But I doubt the Giants bite: we have too many holes in the roster to go around trading mega-picks for a QB who's been a starter for exactly one season.

The Foreskins, on the other hand ...

they’ve hung Rosen out there with their wishy washy support for him. I think they want Murray and will ultimately select him.

On the surface it does make sense. Even though they have the first pick, why be so public about your infatuation with a QB when you have a QB on your roster that you just drafted to be your franchise QB? If you love Murray you know you can take him, so no need for the PDOA.

Now if you wanted to trade out of the pick? Letting teams believe he won't slip is the best way to entice that.

Worst case scenario is nobody bites on the trade and they pick Bosa and call it a day.

In comment 14360359 superspynyg said:

Quote:

Oak prob won’t either but you never know. Looks like AZ is stuck with a decision at 1.

Very interesting stuff. If true, it would be interesting in seeing who trades up for Murray at 2 or 3, if Cardinals keep the pick. Could see Oakland sitting tight and taking Murray, if no one trades up. Giants could also talk to Oakland too.

They changed the coach, not the general manager. The GM that felt strongly enough about Rosen last year to trade up for him is going to give up on him after just one season? He already fired the coach, admitting you made a mistake on both the coach and the QB is a great way to show your owner that you’re shit at your job and need to be canned.

I also don’t buy the stuff about them drafting Murray due to his fit in Kingsbury’s offense. If he couldn’t run his system with Rosen as the QB then he wouldn’t have been hired. They brought him there to work with Rosen, not to cut bait on their young QB.

If this were to happen, it should've happened already. Before teams like to wash Denver and Miami settled on vet options.

The thing I have a hard time believing is that teams would fall for this ploy. As soon as they open up to the possibility of trading their pack you know they're hype about Murray is bullshit

To me, that theory seems like overthinking it.

I think them publicly gushing over Murray is a dog whistle for other teams to call them about Rosen. As DG said, if you make the first call you are at a disadvantage.

defense for the Giants. So sick of watching this team get stomped on in every critical situation. A good draft will get them a good defense for the next 5 years and hopefully with a few tweeks maybe longer. Barkley will get us points. Even though I am sick of Eli Manning, I am not sure he wont give you what a rookie QB will give us for the next 2 years. If there is a chance we can get Rosen on the cheap I am all for it but we really go nowhere without a solid D which we are closer to than last year.

You try to get as much as you can for the #1, however I don't think Murray is the guy that should garner that much drooling.

Also, I think the Cards are awful at this and they have been over-doing it.

If I'm Dave Gettleman, you just sit tight and call their bluff. There is no reason not too. They either draft Murray and you can then deal for Rosen if that's your play. Or you sit tight and they draft someone else then you start dealing with SF/Jets etc and you don't have to give up as much.

I don't see anyone else jumping up into the top 5 to grab him. I think the Giants are playing this well too.

I think where there is smoke there is fire. Everyone is expecting AZ to take Murray and trade Rosen. KK hasn't really come out and said Rosen is their guy.

I appreciate you sharing this though.

We shall see very soon what will happen.

the Cardinals have some highly secret charade going where they are hyping up Murray simply to outsmart the Giants and Raiders who really don't know if Murray is good or not on their own and will decide to like him if the QB savvy Cardinals publicly state their love of him, and then once they hook the Raiders and Giants bumbling front offices into believing Murray is the best QB prospect ever they'll start offering to trade out of the #1 pick to those two teams who they've fooled for a massive haul.

And then let's tell a personnel guy with the Lions about our secret plan.

Thanks for sharing though despite my skepticism.

why would the giants trade up to #1....if cards start talks or engage in talks you know they are staying with rosen....49ers would be the trade spot or jets at 3. if youre giants you could even just say we are staying put and taking haskins or murray at 6 as surely one should fall if cards pass on murray.

thanks for info but i dont think any team should trade to #1 because they know murray is there at 2 or later

In comment 14360375 Dodge said:

Quote:

You try to get as much as you can for the #1, however I don't think Murray is the guy that should garner that much drooling. If I'm Dave Gettleman, you just sit tight and call their bluff. There is no reason not too. They either draft Murray and you can then deal for Rosen if that's your play. Or you sit tight and they draft someone else then you start dealing with SF/Jets etc and you don't have to give up as much.

Exactly, this seems like the obvious play for GMs interested in either QB

and I wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals are angling to get a team to trade up to #1. Murray won't slip past 4. If he's there at 4, the Raiders will take him. So the Cardinals gambit is only as good as draft day when they have to make the call. Teams can wait them out with Rosen forcing their hand either way. That would mean the Niners and Jets will see action if any team wants Murray at 2 or 3.

... Would the Raiders trade up if Arizona is not going to take the quarterback?
I'm quite sure Arizona will consider a Mega deal but I don't think that means that they won't take KM.

...

But I don’t believe it really. Unless they are telling Rosen the plan behind closed doors they seem to be alienating him pretty badly, Kingsbury has passed on multiple opportunities to quell speculation.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is correct. In this case I think the Cards really like Murray and will trade Rosen.

...

1) I really don't see the Raiders going for a rookie QB at all. Gruden won with Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson. I think he's fine with Carr.

2) As others have said, if the Giants want Murray, call the Cardinals bluff. The one thing they don't want is both Murray and Rosen.

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many.

There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge.

The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG"

@AllProAnalytics
Mar 26

Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018:

1. #Rams

2. #Eagles

3. #Titans

4. #Patriots

5. #Bears

Three Worst:

32. #Giants

31. #Raiders

30. #Redskins

.

i agree. just sit tight if your the giants and see how it shakes out. if cards dont take murray call SF and see what a move up costs, if they say no we are staying put we want Q will or whoever then call jets. if jets do same thing, you can call Oakland but there is a chance they want him.

dont forget that the teams who need a QB are pretty far back and it would take a pretty massive haul for lets say miami to go from 13-2, 3, or 4

use of the word fool:

Quote:

The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018:

Especially since it is used to characterized the GM's impact on plays.

Maybe somebody who isn't a fucking moron (a better term here) can discern between the GM and Coach's roles??

In comment 14360409 arniefez said:

Quote:

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many. There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge. The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018: 1. #Rams 2. #Eagles 3. #Titans 4. #Patriots 5. #Bears Three Worst: 32. #Giants 31. #Raiders 30. #Redskins

Arnie, I think DG tells some stories to amuse himself and the media. He doesn't really show his hand. I know he said you don't call first because you then cede leverage in a negotiation, but then moments later said he called the Bills after the Antonio Brown trade fell apart and asked what they'd give for Odell.

And that tweet, isn't that more of a shot at Shurmur than DG for play by play basis evaluation. I think most of BBI is in the camp that we have questioned Shurmur's game day decisions and the jury is out on him but is probably coming very close to getting a verdict on him.

then the rest of the league does too. I think its a plausible theory, but just that - - a theory. If Arizona doesn't draft Murray, my guess is he'll be available at 6.
My further guess is we won't take him.

In comment 14360409 arniefez said:

Quote:

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many.

Then you and he have a lot in common. This is about play calling, and DG doesn't call plays. Your "evidence" is completely unrelated to the point you are trying to make.

stating an opinion without any inside knowledge. I find it hard to believe that someone in the Lions org. would have intimate knowledge of what is going on inside so many other teams.

And you idiots buy it, hook, line, and sinker.

In comment 14360409 arniefez said:

Quote:

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many. There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge. The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018: 1. #Rams 2. #Eagles 3. #Titans 4. #Patriots 5. #Bears Three Worst: 32. #Giants 31. #Raiders 30. #Redskins

What in the fuck are you talking about?

I'll also question a subject matter expert who thought the Titans offense was anything remotely analytically correct last year.

And if he knows, why wouldn't all other teams know?

In comment 14360442 WillieYoung said:

Quote:

then the rest of the league does too. I think its a plausible theory, but just that - - a theory. If Arizona doesn't draft Murray, my guess is he'll be available at 6. My further guess is we won't take him.

My first thought when I read the OP.

Logical speculation from a competitor.

The Cardinals have all the cards. They wind up with a very good prospect at QB and either 1) the best defensive player in the draft or 2) a package for Rosen that compels them to move him.

I'd do exact what they've done. Intimate they will take Murray. If someone is in love with him, command a big haul.

Crazy I guess? It's not like one of the team drafting in the top 10 has ever given multiple number one picks to move to the top of the draft for a QB.

In comment 14360365 GFAN52 said:

Quote:

they’ve hung Rosen out there with their wishy washy support for him. I think they want Murray and will ultimately select him.

They could have talked to Rosen and told him that this is their plan and it would involve not showing public support for him at this time. It's what I would do if I were in the Cards' front office. Then, when the dust settled, I'd announce that Rosen had always been our guy and we just kept our mouths shut about it.

In comment 14360409 arniefez said:

Quote:

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many. There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge. The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018: 1. #Rams 2. #Eagles 3. #Titans 4. #Patriots 5. #Bears Three Worst: 32. #Giants 31. #Raiders 30. #Redskins

Well AllProAnalytics is on the internet afterall, and have a Twitter account, so they must be legit and the gold standard of NFL analytics. Right?

to break it to arnie that a similar breakdown of analytics was done a few years ago that showed the Panthers were one of the best at making analytic decisions.

I'm going to guess that was all about Riverboat Ron though.....

In comment 14360471 rnargi said:

Quote:

In comment 14360365 GFAN52 said: Quote: they’ve hung Rosen out there with their wishy washy support for him. I think they want Murray and will ultimately select him. They could have talked to Rosen and told him that this is their plan and it would involve not showing public support for him at this time. It's what I would do if I were in the Cards' front office. Then, when the dust settled, I'd announce that Rosen had always been our guy and we just kept our mouths shut about it.

Over thinking. Still see Murray as their guy.

As it stands right now, if I was Rosen, I'd have already accepted that I will not be playing for the Cardinals this coming season. Why wouldn't I with all the talk going on? If, somehow, I was still the starter this season for whatever reason, I would be pissed that I was used as a pawn in some kind of crazy draft shadow games.

Also, the supposed source has nothing to do with Arizona, NY, or any other team that could be involved. What does Detroit have to do with this?

I call BS!

In comment 14360483 GFAN52 said:

Quote:

In comment 14360471 rnargi said: Quote: In comment 14360365 GFAN52 said: Quote: they’ve hung Rosen out there with their wishy washy support for him. I think they want Murray and will ultimately select him. They could have talked to Rosen and told him that this is their plan and it would involve not showing public support for him at this time. It's what I would do if I were in the Cards' front office. Then, when the dust settled, I'd announce that Rosen had always been our guy and we just kept our mouths shut about it. Over thinking. Still see Murray as their guy.

Very well may be...but you have to admit, if he's not, this is the way to play it to increase your chances of a Giant (see what I did there?) haul!

In comment 14360460 Mr. Bungle said:

Quote:

And if he knows, why wouldn't all other teams know?

Agreed. This is plausible, but I agree with those who state that Arizona likely wants Murray and is shopping Rosen for the best offer. I don't see the Giants trading up past #5. The cost would be enormous, and we have a ton of holes.

know the Cardinal's plans?

I think he is way off base with his theory.
Cards drafting KM is about as locked in for an overall #1 pick as there has been in some time.

In comment 14360409 arniefez said:

Quote:

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many. There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge. The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018: 1. #Rams 2. #Eagles 3. #Titans 4. #Patriots 5. #Bears Three Worst: 32. #Giants 31. #Raiders 30. #Redskins

Well, the fool has been part of very successful franchises that have been to superbowls and won

As a scout - Bills (3 Superbowl appearances), Broncos (1 Superbowl championships)

As an executive - Giants 3 Superbowl appearances, 2 championships, Panthers (1 Superbowl appearance)

I'll take the fool and his resume over what some ridiculous analytics

by pretending to love the guy? I'm not sure how that would entice offers.

If I were the Cards, I'd be leaking rumors of interest in the first pick. Constant rumors of shipping off Rosen would only lead people to believe Murray is not in play. Leaking that they're going to deal the pick for a haul would put all prospective bidders out in front.

how people come to a conclusion about an executive and not knowing their history of success. That is the reason why the Giants had hired him. Just because he acts goofy in front of the press, doesn't mean he is not smart. Same would apply to Dorsey, as he is a strange acting bird; however, he's doing very well with Cleveland thus far. I would rather have guys like Gettleman and Dorsey then a freaking nerd turd that abides by PFF every single second.

Once again...

We have the Giants:

* Not taking a qb
* Taking one at #6
* Taking one at #17
* Trading for Rosen
* Trading up to make sure we get Haskins
* Trading to #1 for Murray

My money is on nobody knowing anything

In comment 14360561 GiantsRage2007 said:

Quote:

Once again... We have the Giants: * Not taking a qb * Taking one at #6 * Taking one at #17 * Trading for Rosen * Trading up to make sure we get Haskins * Trading to #1 for Murray My money is on nobody knowing anything

1+

In comment 14360561 GiantsRage2007 said:

Quote:

Once again... We have the Giants: * Not taking a qb * Taking one at #6 * Taking one at #17 * Trading for Rosen * Trading up to make sure we get Haskins * Trading to #1 for Murray My money is on nobody knowing anything

Exactly. A positive note is that we only have 28 more days of it.

In comment 14360580 Harvest Blend said:

Quote:

In comment 14360561 GiantsRage2007 said: Quote: Once again... We have the Giants: * Not taking a qb * Taking one at #6 * Taking one at #17 * Trading for Rosen * Trading up to make sure we get Haskins * Trading to #1 for Murray My money is on nobody knowing anything Exactly. A positive note is that we only have 28 more days of it.

I mean... it's kind of fun. All the speculation, etc... but, I need to just tell myself that it's all guesses. I am looking forward to the draft though. This one is pretty darn important.

is not worth the internet space it takes up.

If teams think Murray is Arizona bound, are they suddenly gonna blow the Cardinals away with 4 first round picks? And if you don't take Murray, how does your second year qb respond to being dragged through the mud for a possible replacement?

If that is their play, i think they played their hand too strongly.

... drum up more value in an already valuable pick. If Rosen stays and slips up in any way, the media and fans are going to be, See, they should have taken Murray or See, he’s not their QB of the future.

In comment 14360641 Boy Cord said:

Quote:

... drum up more value in an already valuable pick. If Rosen stays and slips up in any way, the media and fans are going to be, See, they should have taken Murray or See, he’s not their QB of the future.

Yep, that's basically a no win situation for Rosen at that point.

In comment 14360409 arniefez said:

Quote:

He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many. There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge. The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018: 1. #Rams 2. #Eagles 3. #Titans 4. #Patriots 5. #Bears Three Worst: 32. #Giants 31. #Raiders 30. #Redskins

Perhaps I'm an idiot - but what is an "Analytically correct decision maker" mean? How does it prove that DG is a moron if it's "play-by-play"?

That list seems an awful lot like a metric designed after the fact...

is that morons see these lists and then feel they have enough knowledge to call someone a "fool" when they have no clue what they are looking at. It's just a list with the Giants at the bottom, so DG is a "fool" right Arnie? Who the fuck are you again?

but a low level personnel guy from DET has no idea what ARI is doing

“Eli is our guy”
“We didn’t sign OBJ to trade him”
“Bubba Crosby is my center fielder”

Any GM in any sport with half a brain publicly supports the guy on their roster up until the moment he’s replaced. Not to do so just makes the guy you’re trying to get more expensive and the guy you’re trying to get rid of cheaper. The Cardinals apparently don’t know this, just like they don’t seem to know a lot of things. The fans hate Rosen, the GM is hanging him out to dry. Given Rosen’s personality he’s probably lipped off behind closed doors. He may even have told them he wants out. IMHO this is just what it looks like. They want to dump Rosen. The only question is, do the Giants want him

they could try and do it. They realize it is going to cost them sooner or later to get that type of player. if not this year then next year. Murray's mobility, arm and other skills instantly change our offense in so many ways it is hard to imagine. If he is the real deal. Vick with smarts changes the game big time. DG would love to get us another QB with that potential and to be his legacy. Like Accorsi and ELI.

them was the Chiefs, this plan would be much more plausible. Right now it doesn't make much sense. Also, why would they make teams think they love Murray? That would mean that teams would want to jump them. Why not just put the one spot on the table as tradeable with a team that wants a QB?

point is if they specifically said to him behind closed doors "You're the guy, but we are trying to drum up a ton of interest for the number 1 overall so just sit tight and we'll straighten it out after the draft." The problem with that plan is it doesn't make any sense. No team is going to be like well we really want Murray here are 4 first rounders. He just isn't looked that way throughout the league when you have questions about his IQ (emotional IQ at the very least, still waiting on those wonderlics) and stature.

Terrible situation ....He complained where? Crickets.

He got absolutely crushed, concussion folks? Crickets.

Talked about everywhere, everyday being traded after one year in a horrible situation...

Where are the bad interviews, tweets about this being unfair from Rosen? More crickets

What did his teammates say about him this year? I am sure someone with such a bad attitude would have had a teammate call him out publicly at UCLA or Arizona? Oh wait, there aren't any.

I am at loss for why there is a such a strong narrative about attitude against this guy without any first hand sources...

To Arizona. Been here for a little more than a year and listening to sports radio here I think the Cards are sticking with Rosen but trying to get a team to sell the farm for the first overall pick. I don't see them quitting on Rosen after one year.

Steve K. The cards GM has pressure on him. Picking a poor coach and then previously getting pulled over for an extreme DUI where he blew .19 . So I think he does the conservative thing and tries to build the team and keep Rosen.

I'm sure him or his agent wised up.

then the team they're talking to knows they're bluffing about Murray so the value of the pick should go down. If the Cards wanted to extract max value they should have let out that they're torn between Haskins and Murray and would be happy with either. Then maybe they could get a ransom from a team that was high on one but not the other.

In comment 14360458 MetsAreBack said:

Quote:

In comment 14360409 arniefez said: Quote: He says a lot of really stupid things. A lot. This is just one of many. There is no disadvantage in making the first call. Zero. 0.0. It changes nothing about the price you're willing to pay. It changes nothing about the price the team you call wants to charge. The Giants have a fool for a GM. Here's an interesting look at "DG" @AllProAnalytics Mar 26 Evaluating NFL team decisions on a play-by-play basis, these are the teams that graded out as the most “Analytically-Correct” decision makers in 2018: 1. #Rams 2. #Eagles 3. #Titans 4. #Patriots 5. #Bears Three Worst: 32. #Giants 31. #Raiders 30. #Redskins What in the fuck are you talking about? I'll also question a subject matter expert who thought the Titans offense was anything remotely analytically correct last year.

This is not meant to defend arnie, who is clearly missing the point with what he thinks supports his argument, but you do realize that it's possible to have bad outcomes from a statistically correct choice, and good outcomes from a statistically incorrect choice, right?

It seems like you're confusing prolific production with analytical efficiency.

In comment 14360618 islander1 said:

Quote:

is not worth the internet space it takes up.

Especially since Gettleman probably doesn't know what the internet is.