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Why Eli Manning is Better Than You Think

David B. : 4/10/2019 9:13 pm
Hater's gonna hate, regardless.

But this is basically what I've seen.
Why Eli Manning is Better Than You Think - ( New Window )
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I always like to do a little test  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:11 am : link
when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.
RE: I always like to do a little test  
hitdog42 : 4/11/2019 11:14 am : link
In comment 14382375 dep026 said:
Quote:
when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.


he had a 79 QB in those playoffs which this year would have ranked the 3rd best in the NFL.

so he played amazing in that playoffs and it was reflected in the number? fantastic
RE: RE: I always like to do a little test  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:18 am : link
In comment 14382388 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
In comment 14382375 dep026 said:


Quote:


when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.



he had a 79 QB in those playoffs which this year would have ranked the 3rd best in the NFL.

so he played amazing in that playoffs and it was reflected in the number? fantastic


Was my question hard to digest? I dont care what his ranking is back then to what it is now. I jut said rank his performances 1-4. Being that you probabl went and looked at those ratings - you will fudge to to support a bias claim, I get it.

How about his game against SF in the 2011 playoffs? Woof, what a dog of a game he had right? I think we won despite his play. I guess the game is viewed as an "outliner", right?
RE: RE: RE: I always like to do a little test  
hitdog42 : 4/11/2019 11:20 am : link
In comment 14382407 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 14382388 hitdog42 said:


Quote:


In comment 14382375 dep026 said:


Quote:


when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.



he had a 79 QB in those playoffs which this year would have ranked the 3rd best in the NFL.

so he played amazing in that playoffs and it was reflected in the number? fantastic



Was my question hard to digest? I dont care what his ranking is back then to what it is now. I jut said rank his performances 1-4. Being that you probabl went and looked at those ratings - you will fudge to to support a bias claim, I get it.

How about his game against SF in the 2011 playoffs? Woof, what a dog of a game he had right? I think we won despite his play. I guess the game is viewed as an "outliner", right?


dep the data is consistent in pointing out that in that 4 game span-- eli manning was excellent/elite qb.
if u factor in the temperature of the gametime- Green Bay should be higher.... but i mean give me a break--- the metric says he played well in all the games- and he did. it says he played VERY well.
No the point is the data  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:24 am : link
is saying he played better in some games than in others. and I asked you to rank the games because I could easily argue he was better against GB and NE than he was in the previous two games. And I could easily argue his game against SF in 2011 was probably the best game he ever played.

But do the ratings suggest that? Nope. But lets keep referring to them as if they have truth behind them.
and the SF game was a gutsy great performance  
hitdog42 : 4/11/2019 11:25 am : link
he was excellent standing in there- the eye test was a better gauge then the statistics for that one-- but picking one game that it deemed as solid instead of spectacular doesnt make a time series irrelevant because it doesnt spit out the results over time that you want to see.
RE: and the SF game was a gutsy great performance  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:27 am : link
In comment 14382431 hitdog42 said:
Quote:
he was excellent standing in there- the eye test was a better gauge then the statistics for that one-- but picking one game that it deemed as solid instead of spectacular doesnt make a time series irrelevant because it doesnt spit out the results over time that you want to see.


I have picked 8 games between 2007 and 2011 now, and his 3 best games of his career were deemed 3 of his worst playoff performances for those 8.

So valid.
wtf are you talking about  
hitdog42 : 4/11/2019 11:30 am : link
in 2007 it says he was great.
in 2011 it says he was very good- and because the completion percentage was poor the SF game isnt as high as you or myself would like--- but over the course of the games you are talking about--- it says he played really well.

you can nitpick--- but the thing paints a good picture of WTF is going on. like anything with you--- if it doesnt spit out the results you want to see... its somehow wrong
Its a team game  
Platos : 4/11/2019 11:33 am : link
and i'd rather have Eli at 38 in the 2 minute drill than a lot of those losers who had high QBRs the last 5 years.

dalton? Cutler? Keenum? really?
I am not nitpicking anything  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:34 am : link
I am judging how he performed by their metrics. The SF and 2007 GB games were viewed as his two worst games of those 2 SB runs. You know how f'n asinine that is?

Are you really going to support those metrics? Come on, you are much better than this.
RE: I always like to do a little test  
Gatorade Dunk : 4/11/2019 11:37 am : link
In comment 14382375 dep026 said:
Quote:
when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.

There's a bit of a problem with your suggestion here. A four-game sample may be sufficient (I'd argue that it's pretty low for statistical significance, but neither here nor there), but that's not actually what you're asking for here. You're asking for four separate one-game samples, ranked in order. A four-game sample would view those four games in the aggregate, not individually.
RE: RE: RE: Why must you say “haters going to hate.”  
Thegratefulhead : 4/11/2019 11:38 am : link
In comment 14382056 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
In comment 14381985 joeinpa said:


Quote:


In comment 14381982 SB 42 and 46 and ? said:


Quote:


If someone says that Manning has always been a mediocre quarterback who just had two fluke lucky years then perhaps that might apply. But as feeling now that it is time to replace him, how many NFL teams have ever started a 39 year old quarterback who, in his last seven seasons, has a record of 47-65 with one playoff game?

And they have the draft choices this year to get the new guy.



47-65. Yikes, How does anyone dismiss the quarterback’s role in that record.




I'll ask this like I have many other threads:

"Are there any posters saying Eli doesn't deserve some blame??"

I'll also point to Philip Rivers, a guy many on BBI called the MVP of last season. He went through a stretch where his team missed the playoffs 7 out of 8 years. Had a 12 loss season and an 11 loss season.

How many people truly believe Rivers was the main reason for that drought? Compare that to how many people think Eli is the main reason (if not the sole reason) for our drought

That's why the topic is crazy. So inconsistent.
Those are fair points FMiC. It is why I have moved into the I don't know position. He should have an at least average OL and a great running game. He did well without OBJ and we added Tate and I expect another receiver in the draft. This year should give us the information we need.
RE: RE: I always like to do a little test  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:42 am : link
In comment 14382464 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14382375 dep026 said:


Quote:


when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.


There's a bit of a problem with your suggestion here. A four-game sample may be sufficient (I'd argue that it's pretty low for statistical significance, but neither here nor there), but that's not actually what you're asking for here. You're asking for four separate one-game samples, ranked in order. A four-game sample would view those four games in the aggregate, not individually.


Ok, throw in the 2011 as well to make it 8 games.

And games should seen individually due to the fact is thats how they are graded. If they are going to pass out a grade for a game - why cant we view it versus the other games? I have faults with how games are graded. So I think its more than fair to question how Eli got a 59 QBR in a game where it could be argued it was probably the best game he ever played. Or a 72 in GB? I think if thats the metric that we should be basing how a player plays - maybe its not the best one to use, huh?
RE: RE: RE: I always like to do a little test  
Gatorade Dunk : 4/11/2019 11:49 am : link
In comment 14382480 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 14382464 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14382375 dep026 said:


Quote:


when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.


There's a bit of a problem with your suggestion here. A four-game sample may be sufficient (I'd argue that it's pretty low for statistical significance, but neither here nor there), but that's not actually what you're asking for here. You're asking for four separate one-game samples, ranked in order. A four-game sample would view those four games in the aggregate, not individually.



Ok, throw in the 2011 as well to make it 8 games.

And games should seen individually due to the fact is thats how they are graded. If they are going to pass out a grade for a game - why cant we view it versus the other games? I have faults with how games are graded. So I think its more than fair to question how Eli got a 59 QBR in a game where it could be argued it was probably the best game he ever played. Or a 72 in GB? I think if thats the metric that we should be basing how a player plays - maybe its not the best one to use, huh?

I don't doubt that there are probably inherent flaws in the rating system. I happen to be a big proponent of stats in general (and not just football or even sports, broadly), but I recognize that most statistical analyses that try to isolate the contribution/failure of one single football player have to take some liberties in order to get there, so they're never really airtight.

Baseball, and even basketball, sure, individual stats do tell the story pretty well. Football is a bit tougher because of all the same things we argue about constantly with regard to Eli. How much of it is the fault/credit of other players, scheme, assignment, etc. vs. how much of it is truly representative of one individual player?
RE: RE: RE: RE: I always like to do a little test  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 11:51 am : link
In comment 14382495 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 14382480 dep026 said:


Quote:


In comment 14382464 Gatorade Dunk said:


Quote:


In comment 14382375 dep026 said:


Quote:


when dealing with QB Rating and QBR. Lets look at a 4 game sample, which should be ample enough since it represents 1/4th of a season.

Do a little test, go back to the 2007-2008 playoffs and rank in what games Eli played 1 through 4. Then come back to me.


There's a bit of a problem with your suggestion here. A four-game sample may be sufficient (I'd argue that it's pretty low for statistical significance, but neither here nor there), but that's not actually what you're asking for here. You're asking for four separate one-game samples, ranked in order. A four-game sample would view those four games in the aggregate, not individually.



Ok, throw in the 2011 as well to make it 8 games.

And games should seen individually due to the fact is thats how they are graded. If they are going to pass out a grade for a game - why cant we view it versus the other games? I have faults with how games are graded. So I think its more than fair to question how Eli got a 59 QBR in a game where it could be argued it was probably the best game he ever played. Or a 72 in GB? I think if thats the metric that we should be basing how a player plays - maybe its not the best one to use, huh?


I don't doubt that there are probably inherent flaws in the rating system. I happen to be a big proponent of stats in general (and not just football or even sports, broadly), but I recognize that most statistical analyses that try to isolate the contribution/failure of one single football player have to take some liberties in order to get there, so they're never really airtight.

Baseball, and even basketball, sure, individual stats do tell the story pretty well. Football is a bit tougher because of all the same things we argue about constantly with regard to Eli. How much of it is the fault/credit of other players, scheme, assignment, etc. vs. how much of it is truly representative of one individual player?


And I dont have a problem people using them once in awhile either. My problem is using it to judge a players value and then comparing players.

I find way too many faults in their grading and the formulas to make fair comparisons on their worth and against other players.
We're clear?  
Thegratefulhead : 4/11/2019 12:49 pm : link
There are no stats used to evaluate Qbs that are credible?

QB Rating
QBR
DVOA
None of those are good?

Are there any analysts that are good? We like them when we agree with the narrative we are trying to push.

It seems like to every person, the only stuff that is credible is the stuff we use to prove the point we are actively trying to make?

Eye test is no good, we all see different things when we watch.

There is no way to corral any debate on BBI because we agree on nothing about sources or stats. It is just one big circle jerk.

I have questions.

If we have 2 wins or less at the bye, regardless of circumstance, will you want to see another QB play for the rest of season, considering Eli's age and this is the last year of his contract?

If yes, and you had your pick of ANY of the QBs that have been mentioned to be available in trade or through the draft would you want see play for the second half of the season?

My answers:
Yes
Josh Rosen
To answer your questions  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 12:53 pm : link
1. I dont like any stat relies on formulas and doesnt react to how the specific play plays out.
2. I dont watch analysts. I tend to stay away from ESPN and NFL Network because of a lot of the garbage that they produce. "experts" are those who either failed miserably at their jobs or are trying to get into managment type positions, so they mostly push their narratives.
RE: To answer your questions  
Thegratefulhead : 4/11/2019 1:18 pm : link
In comment 14382624 dep026 said:
Quote:
1. I dont like any stat relies on formulas and doesnt react to how the specific play plays out.
2. I dont watch analysts. I tend to stay away from ESPN and NFL Network because of a lot of the garbage that they produce. "experts" are those who either failed miserably at their jobs or are trying to get into management type positions, so they mostly push their narratives.
So basically your personal football expertise when watching games is how you form your your opinions about football. That explain a lot. TY. Do you watch many games other than the Giants? Any all 22 tape used in forming your opinions? Any experience playing or coaching the game?

I listen to analysts when they include video to back up their claims then I also consider the sample size and think about whether the interview has bias. IE I generally will not listen to someone that has bias against a certain player like Kurt Warner does with Eli. I feel players and analysts do provide some insight, they do get me to consider things that I had not previously thought about as many of them are former players and I have neverr played at the NFL level.

I use ALL the stats available, QBR, Rating, W/L DVOA ect ect ect and apply what I know about the circumstances surrounding those stats. Lastly, I apply the eye test. When I use this process, it often changes the opinion I had before I started. Then I ask others. There are a number of posters here that I find insightful.

I do notice that many, if not most people here, never change their minds about anything. I think people make up their minds about their opinions and then never let anything, even objective evidence get in the way of those opinions. How does one grow or learn anything that way?
You can ask many posters here  
dep026 : 4/11/2019 1:25 pm : link
how many other games I watch. Its a good deal.

And yes I use my eyes for a lot of my information that has been backed with over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.
RE: You can ask many posters here  
Thegratefulhead : 4/11/2019 1:37 pm : link
In comment 14382689 dep026 said:
Quote:
how many other games I watch. Its a good deal.

And yes I use my eyes for a lot of my information that has been backed with over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.
Reasonable. I think this is actually more than most fans.
How about this: Eli's father and brother should have counseled  
SB 42 and 46 and ? : 4/11/2019 4:57 pm : link
him to retire by now. With two Super Bowl MVP awards, he had nothing to prove. Now every year he continues to play his body is taking another season of abuse that will catch up with him someday.

(I know. I didn't listen to everyone who told me that running on hard pavement was bad for my hip joints long term, but I still went out there almost every day. Well, I admit my hip joints are not happy campers any more.)

Besides all the collective abuse that his body takes, there's always the chance of that really serious injury.
RE: .  
Go Terps : 4/11/2019 5:20 pm : link
In comment 14382037 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
There are two daily occurrences here that are as sure as the sun rising and setting...

1. An Eli Manning thread.
2. An Odell Beckham thread.

Same people arguing the same points day after day.

It's actually exhausting just seeing the threads and barely even reading them at all anymore.

This draft cannot come soon enough.


There's a third daily occurrence on BBI:

3. Posters whining about topics being discussed

This is a Giants board, and people are talking about the Giants. No one is making you open any thread.
RE: You can ask many posters here  
ron mexico : 4/11/2019 5:34 pm : link
In comment 14382689 dep026 said:
Quote:
how many other games I watch. Its a good deal.

And yes I use my eyes for a lot of my information that has been backed with over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.


It took you over a decade to get through high school and college?

That explains a lot.


Before you go nuts....I'm just busting balls
The funniest thing about this thread is  
Jimmy Googs : 4/11/2019 8:38 pm : link
it portrays how we suck at even being NY Giant fans...
RE: You can ask many posters here  
santacruzom : 4/12/2019 12:37 am : link
In comment 14382689 dep026 said:
Quote:
how many other games I watch. Its a good deal.

And yes I use my eyes for a lot of my information that has been backed with over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.


You were in high school and college for over a ten years?
RE: RE: You can ask many posters here  
dep026 : 4/12/2019 6:57 am : link
In comment 14383300 santacruzom said:
Quote:
In comment 14382689 dep026 said:


Quote:


how many other games I watch. Its a good deal.

And yes I use my eyes for a lot of my information that has been backed with over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.



You were in high school and college for over a ten years?


Over a decade of playing the position.... you know that can start before junior high, right?
RE: RE: RE: .  
christian : 4/12/2019 8:54 am : link
In comment 14382263 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
In comment 14382221 gidiefor said:


Quote:


In comment 14382138 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


Yep.

After a certain point, no one is going to change anyone else's mind.

But everyone just keeps trying.



This is a sad commentary. I don't agree, nor do I believe, that no one can make a persuasive argument, nor that anyone can't change their mind

The impenetration of your mind does not reflect all minds



Who, to your knowledge, has changed his or her mind, one way or the other?


Couple of things I used to privately jump through mental hoops to justify; that Manning was pretty blameless and Beckham was misunderstood.

At some point I had to accept either both were the victims of the most unfair set of coincidences or a major part of the problem.
RE: RE: RE: You can ask many posters here  
Gatorade Dunk : 4/12/2019 9:35 am : link
In comment 14383355 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 14383300 santacruzom said:


Quote:


In comment 14382689 dep026 said:


Quote:


how many other games I watch. Its a good deal.

And yes I use my eyes for a lot of my information that has been backed with over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.



You were in high school and college for over a ten years?



Over a decade of playing the position.... you know that can start before junior high, right?

over a decade of playing the position at the high school and college level.

That's why people are making the joke.
I got it originally  
dep026 : 4/12/2019 9:47 am : link
Thanks.
6 years of college down the drain...  
Jimmy Googs : 4/12/2019 3:39 pm : link
.
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